US durable goods orders slip; US confidence also slips; some key EU concerns grow; Turkey turmoil may bring opportunity; UST 10yr 2.93%; oil drops and gold jumps; NZ$1 = 69.1 USc; TWI-5 = 72.1

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news some key oil producers are moving to raised crude supply.

Firstly, new orders for American durable goods slipped -1.7% in April from March to US$248.5 bln. That was principally due to a fall in new orders for aircraft. But the level of unfilled orders actually rose within that overall result.

American households were less confident about their economy in May, continuing a falling trend from a 14-year high seen earlier in the year. This May result was also slightly lower than expectations.

Meanwhile in Germany the unexpectedly negative business sentiment we first saw in April has continued into May, although at a similar level (that is, not getting worse).

And in some other key EU economies there are increasingly worrying signs of instability. In Italy bond markets are voting lopsidedly against the new choice for Prime Minister. And in Spain, their Prime Minister is to face a no confidence motion in their Parliament.

In Turkey, one of the TIVA emerging countries in turmoil, the landscape is very fluid. Their Trumpesque president called early elections to capitalise on his self-perceived popularity, but the recent inflation and currency crisis is changing the situation fast. So fast, that investors are now wondering if there could be a sharp lira rally if he is defeated on June 25 (NZT). There is some new-found support for cheap Turkish investments.

China has raised retail fuel prices again, the fifth time since March.

The UST 10yr yield is still tumbling and now down to 2.93%, a -13 bps slide from the level at this time last week. Since yesterday, this is another -5 bps retreat. The Chinese 10yr is down to 3.69% (unchanged) while the New Zealand equivalent is at 2.77% and that is a -12 bps fall on the week (-2 bps overnight).

The VIX is back into a normal range at 13.1, similar to where it was this time last week. The average index level over the past year is 12. The Fear & Greed index is still near neutral but is back on the fear side in a minor shift.

Gold markets have closed at US$1,301/oz in New York. That is a +US$12 rise since this time yesterday, breaking out of flat trading all week.

Oil prices are down sharply today by more than -US$2/bbl and are now just under US$68 and the Brent benchmark is now just under US$76.50/bbl. Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing raising OPEC and non-OPEC oil production by some 1 million barrels a day. The US rig count was higher this past week expanding more than analyst forecasts.

The Kiwi dollar is ending the week little changed at 69.1 USc. On the cross rates we are at 92.6 AUc and 59.3 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 at 72.1 and unchanged over the whole week.

Bitcoin is down again and now at US$7,392, a -2.3% fall since yesterday and a -10% fall over the week.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».