Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of a flurry of big data releases.
First up, the June data for personal income and spending in the US is out and holding no surprises. Both increased by the same rate as for May. The rises have been driven by a strong service sector. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is in here and that also held unchanged at just over +2%.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on tomorrow, but solid economic growth combined with rising inflation are likely to keep it on track for another two hikes this year.
In Canada, their May GDP reading (yes, they report that monthly) recorded an uptick, rising to +2.6%, beating both the May level and analysts expectations. That should lift their Q2 growth rate to almost 3%, roughly double what they have had over the past year. Mining is driving their growth.
In Mexico, their Q2 growth rate has been released overnight asn is +2.7% higher than the same period a year ago. This is slightly lower than expected. And the newly elected President of Mexico said he will take a pay cut, taking his NZ$235,000 salary down to less tha NZ$120,000 per year. (The New Zealand Prime Minister is paid $494,000 including 'expenses'.)
The EU also released GDP growth data for Q2 and that shows a +2.1% rise, lower than expected and sharply lower than Q1-2018. Lower exports trimmed this result. Also released was July inflation data and that came in slightly higher at +2.1%.
Meanwhile, the IMF has delivered a glum review of Greece's economy and its prospects following years of austerity.
In China, their official factory PMI has slipped to a five month low in July and now below the average over the past year. Their senior leadership are acknowledging they face "external challenges, to "growth and stability". They are trying to shift strategy that de-emphasises trade with the US.
Japan's central bank review of their monetary policy settings came and went with no changes, somewhat surprising markets.
The UST 10yr yield is holding at 2.96%. Their 2-10 curve is still at +30 bps. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.53% (down -1 bp from this time yesterday) while the New Zealand equivalent is now at 2.79%, up +3 bps.
Gold is up +US$2 at US$1,224/oz in New York.
US oil prices have fallen back today after yesterday's jump and now just over US$68.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just over US$74/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 68.2 USc, very similar to the level this time yesterday. On the cross rates we are lower however at 91.7 AUc following yesterday's poor business confidence result, and at 58.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 71.6.
Bitcoin is now at US$7,715 which is down another -2.6% since this time yesterday. We track this rate daily in the interactive chart below.
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The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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