A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; some TD changes, Truckometer positive, inflation up, expectations up, Aussie house financing soft, swaps firm, NZD bounces

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC has raised some term deposit rates for terms of 9 months and less. Aotearoa Credit Union has cut all its TD rates for terms of 6 months and longer.

HANGING IN THERE
While the ANZ Truckometer readings of heavy and light freight traffic softened a bit in July, they are still clearly on an upward trend. This data is a good forward indicator of GDP growth and it is still pointing to a ~3% rate.

OFF ITS LOWS
The ANZ inflation gauge is suggesting a little firmness in terms of price rises. It is pointing to a +2.5% rate and now suggesting the lower exchange rate is forcing some inflation back into the economy. (Actually, their index is +2.7% higher in July than the same month a year ago.) ANZ's monitoring is monthly and independently constructed to the Stats NZ quarterly series.

MOVING UP AGAIN
The RBNZ commissioned survey of inflation expectations that is carried out for them by Nielsen has seen a small firming to +2.04% pa. That is higher than the +2% recorded on average in 2017, and well above the +1.65% they recorded in 2016. Consumers see rising prices even if they don't see much of a gain. Today's data may have reported a tiny gain, but the currency markets sure noticed (see below). Oddly, they seemed to ignore the drop in economic growth expectations.

PULLING BACK
In Australia, financing of housing is slowing. Although it is up in the full twelve months to June from the same year a year ago, the gains are evoprating for both the purchase of new dwellings (-2.7% June-on-June) and the purchase of existing dwellings (-3.2%). The tide has certainly turned.

POSITIVE, EXCEPT ...
The patriotic positives of yesterday on the Shanghai stock exchange have given way today to a solid -0.5% fall. The only other equities exchange falling today has been the Argentina one which slumped -3.8% as strikes grip the country.

HOUSEKEEPING
If you are a supplier to interest.co.nz you should note that we no longer have a post office box. It has been closed after lack of use. Our postal address is now 206 Jervois Road, level 1, Herne Bay, Auckland 1011.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Local swap rates are up +1 bp across the whole curve. The UST 10yr is firmer at 2.97%, up +2 bps from where it was this time yesterday. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.68% (unchanged), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.49% down -1 bp, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.78%, unchanged. The 90 day bank bill rate is also unchanged at 1.89%.

BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,594, down -5.0% from where it was this time yesterday. Delays in the US SEC approving a bitcoin ETF are likely to be behind the chunky fall.

NZD BOUNCES
The NZD jumped +20 bps when the inflation expectations data was released and is now at 67.5 USc. We are also higher on the cross rates at 90.9 AUc, and the euro at 58.1 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 up just under 71.1.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.