Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news most markets are turning dovish as growth momentum continues to fade
First, a reminder that Wall Street is closed today for the the Bush funeral. But yesterday it was down a very sharp -3.2% essentially finishing off by wiping out all the 2018 gains. Overnight European markets fell about -1.4%. And they followed Shanghai which was down -0.6% as well. Hong Kong (-1.6%) and Tokyo (-0.6%) rounded out the list of majors all on the down side, and all essentially judging the result of the G20 China-US trade talks. Local markets didn't escape with the ASX down -0.8% and the NZX down -1.0%.
Most American data that was due to be published today has been put back until tomorrow. However the US Fed has released its Beige Book survey results. It continues to show modest to moderate expansion in most Fed districts.
In Canada, their central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% and as expected. Meanwhile, housing market resales slumped in Toronto, down -15% year-on-year. In Vancouver they hit a ten year low, down a massive -42%. Bond yields have tumbled on the dovish turn in Canadian sentiment.
In Mexico consumer confidence is holding at about a neutral level.
In China, there was an unexpected and encouraging improvement in their services sector PMI, in the survey not run by Beijing. It rose 'significantly' from neutral to being solidly expansionary.
In Australia things went the other way, with an unexpected slip in their GDP growth in the September quarter. It grew at an annualised rate of just +2.8% which is sharply lower than the +3.4% rate recorded in the June quarter. Markets had expected 3.3% growth. This has pushed the AUD lower. The fear is that with house prices also falling, consumers may start spending less, compounding the growth retreat.
October data on world airfreight was released overnight showing a modest +3.1% gain and a small improvement from September's low +2.5% rise. The international airfreight component was a smaller +3.0% rise year-on-year with the Asia/Pacific region lagging at +2.4%.
Back in the US, Google's Waymo division has launched a significant development in its costly, decade-long quest for autonomous driving: self-driving robo taxis that actually generate fares. The trial is now working in Arizona.
The UST 10yr yield is marginally higher than this time yesterday at 2.91% and embedding its recent fall. Their 2-10 curve has stabilised at just under +12 bps, no doubt holding only because of the unexpected Wall Street holiday. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.51% (down -2 bps), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.35% and unchanged, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.51% and also down another -3 bps.
Gold is unchanged today at US$1,237/oz.
US oil prices are a little higher again today at US$53.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just on US$62.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is starting today just a little softer at 69.1 USc. On the cross rates we are substantially firmer at 95.1 AUc as the Aussie sinks on its weak Q3 GDP result, and we slipped to 60.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 just marginally down to 73.6 and still close to its eight month highs.
Bitcoin is much lower today, now at US$3,691 which is a chunky -5.7% drop from this time yesterday. We were last at this level in mid-September 2017 on the way up. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
This chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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