US Fed meeting; Canada home sales fall; EU inflation lower; Malaysia sues Goldman Sachs; Indonesia under pressure; Aussie tax revenues jump; UST 10yr at 2.86%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 68 USc; TWI-5 = 72.7

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are waiting for the next US Fed decision.

The Fed is about to start a meeting that is widely expected to bring a rate rise on Thursday (NZT). But the US President is tweeting aggressively against the move.

In Canada the volume of home sales fell for the third month in a row in November. They are now -12% lower than in November 2017. Listings are down and the national average sale price also fell by -2.9% from a year ago. In Toronto and Montreal, average prices rose modestly, in Vancouver they fell modestly although that was their biggest drop in a decade.

In the EU, inflation is falling, now down to under +2% in November in the eurozone and just on +2% in the wider EU. This is despite energy prices being +9.1% higher than a year ago although that element is now fading. And the more it does, the lower their CPI growth will become.

And the EU has told the UK there will be no more meetings to explore revising the Brexit deal.

In Malaysia, prosecutors filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs and four people involved in a US$6.5 bln bond issue by state fund 1MDB as it attempts to recover about US$3.3 bln that was allegedly swindled. Goldman Sachs earned about US$600 mln in these 2012 deals but prosecutors also want them to pay for the thefts by the then-ruling family members of the Malaysian Government.

Indonesia is facing renewed stress as its trade deficit balloons. Their deficit reached almost US$2.1 bln in November, its deepest monthly result in more than five years.

In China, they are starting to worry about a rise in food inflation as they grapple with the African Swine Fever outbreak that is spreading quickly in their pig farms.

In Australia, the Federal Government released their half year fiscal update showing fast rising tax revenues. A surge in mining industry profits and tax revenue has boosted Commonwealth coffers and will allow them to forecast a bigger-than-expected surplus next year. And next year is election year with a poll expected in May.

Yesterday, equity markets in the Far East were little changed although Tokyo did manage a +0.6% daily gain and Australia managed a +1.0% gain on their strong MYEFU. Overnight EU bourses were quite weak with losses at about -1% in most major markets. In fact we should note that the DAX is down -16% so far in 2018, the FTSE is down -11% and the Paris CAC is down -9%. In mid-day trade, the S&P500 is down -0.7% so far today taking its full 2018 loss-to-date to -4%. (For reference, the NZX50 is up +4.1% in 2018, one of the few year-to-date market gainers.)

The UST 10yr yield is now at 2.86% and down -4 bps. Their 2-10 curve is just under +16 bps and unchanged. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.44%, down -1 bp, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.40% and up +3 bps, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.49% and down -2 bps.

Gold has regained some ground and is now at US$1,244, a +US$6 rise today.

US oil prices are down again by almost -US$1 to just over US$50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now just under US$60/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is starting today unchanged from this time yesterday at 68 USc. On the cross rates we are also unchanged at 94.7 AUc, and at 60 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 at 72.7.

Bitcoin is now at US$3,450 which is a hearty +7% gain overnight. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».