A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; NZ PMI; migration; international visitors; climate change legislation; global growth; rates up; NZD stable

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

There were no changes today.

There were no changes today.

New Zealand's manufacturing sector experienced a slightly improved level of expansion for February, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for February was 53.7 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was 0.7 points up from January, and the second highest expansion level for the last nine months. Looking at the main sub-index values, both production (53.9) and new orders (54.7) showed a part recovery after a noticeable drop in expansion levels during January.  However, employment (50.8) dropped a further 1.2 points to its lowest level since August 2018. The slight improvement in February's results also meant the proportion of positive comments for February (51.1%) was up on January (47.7%), but still down from December (60.6%) and November (60.1%).  Seasonal factors were still evident throughout the comments, although a number of respondents felt that February was business as usual.

Migrant arrivals were provisionally estimated at 151,600 (± 1,500) and migrant departures at 93,200 (± 1,100) in the 12 months ended January 2019, Stats NZ said today. This resulted in a provisional estimate of annual net migration of 58,400 (± 1,600). In the year ended January 2019, New Zealand was the largest country of citizenship for migrant arrivals – 36,400 (± 600), and migrant departures – 44,100 (± 700). There was a net loss of 7,700 (± 800) New Zealand citizens – more left the country long-term than returned. Arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens were 115,300 (± 1,300), departures of non-New Zealand citizens was 49,100 (± 800).

Annual total traveller movements across New Zealand’s border reached 14 million for the first time in the year ended January 2019, Stats NZ said today. Annual total traveller movements are equivalent to the sum of all arrivals and departures for New Zealand-resident travellers, overseas visitors, and migrants. It took 18 months for annual total traveller movements to increase from 13 million to 14 million. The fastest-ever million gain occurred between 2003 and 2004, when it took only nine months for annual total traveller movements to increase from 7 million to 8 million. Visitor arrivals were 399,300 in the month of January 2019. This was up 21,100 (5.3 percent) from January 2018. Australia led the increase in visitor arrivals. China led the Asia region, compensating for falls in arrivals from some Asian countries. Total visitor arrivals for Asia were up 5,900 for the month of January 2019. Total visitor arrivals for the year ended January 2019 were 3.88 million, up 151,500 from the year ended January 2018.

The Coalition Government is working on the final details of climate change legislation that will set New Zealand on the path to being carbon zero by 2050. "This is ground-breaking legislation. No New Zealand Government has ever had to pass a law that over a 30 year timeframe seeks to stop climate pollution entering the atmosphere. It’s technical and difficult legislation we are working hard to finalise. Once we lock down the remaining details we will be in a position to announce the timeframe for the Bill’s introduction. I’m very keen to see it finalised and completed by the end of this year." said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Rising global debt is slowing economic growth and making Canada, and the rest of the world, more vulnerable to another period of financial instability, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said on Thursday. Speaking to an audience of financial professionals and students in Vancouver, she noted that while the global financial system is in a better place than it was a decade ago, trade uncertainties and other geopolitical risks could throw things off track. “Global debt now totals around $240 trillion - that’s $100 trillion higher than just before the financial crisis,” Wilkins said, adding: “That is a headwind to growth and makes us vulnerable to another period of financial instability.”

Heartland Group Holdings says its Australian subsidiary has established an Australian Dollar medium-term note programme. It has also completed its first senior unsecured bond placement of A$50 million with an Australian institutional investor. The money borrowed will be used to fund reverse mortgage lending.

The NZ two-year swap rate is up +1 bp at 1.84%, the five-year is up +1 bp at 1.96% and the ten-year is up +1 bp at 2.36%.

The NZ dollar is little changed since this morning at US68.41 cents, AU96.69c, and €60.5c.

Bitcoin is up about US$7 since this morning at US$3.867.47.

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Statement from PM Jacinda Ardern on Christchurch shootings

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has expressed her horror at the events that are currently unfolding in Christchurch.

“This was an act of extraordinary and unprecedented violence. It has no place in New Zealand.

“It is one of New Zealand’s darkest days.

“Many of the people affected by this act of extreme violence will be from our refugee and migrant communities.

“New Zealand is their home. They are us.

“The person or people who carried out this act of unprecedented violence are not.

“There is no place in our home for them.

“My thoughts, and I know all New Zealanders’ thoughts, are with those affected and with the people of Christchurch.

“To those who are in lockdown and separated from their families, stay safe and stay inside, follow instructions and be assured the police are actively managing the situation.”

Christchurch has been through a lot over the past 10 years.

so when do we start the debate about how powerful gangs have become on the back of imported drugs, their lack of concern about prison time and the unbelievable violence they dish out?

What on earth are you on about? Where is the gang link to this crime?

I thought he was part of a gang

I just watched Al Bartletts "Most Important Video You Will Ever See" with an 80 year old relative two nights ago. In the middle Al talks about population control in relation to exceeding resource limits, both planned or unplanned. As a general response to this video my relative said "why isn't this stuff in the media" So the Christchurch shooting is a prescient moment for him, a first hand view of a new world for him. One where symptoms are trumpeted endlessly, but real problems are never discussed.

My relative, bless him, by his own admission is not super intelligent and never got a high school eduction. But he got the picture straight away, I put that down to being an ENTP and therefore a good technical mind.