US durable goods orders stall; Bank of Canada lowers growth forecast; ditto Japan; South Korea contracts; McEwan resigns; UST 10yr 2.54%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 66.2 USc; TWI-5 = 71.2

Here's our summary of key events over the ANZAC Day break that affect New Zealand, with news more central banks are downgrading their outlooks.

But firstly, US durable goods orders rose a tiny +0.8% in March 2019 from March 2018. New orders for non-defense capital goods actually fell -5.0% in the same periods. These are worrying data, (although we should note that the official data focuses on the annualised change from February to March as this has new orders up +2.3% - that is the number that is in the headlines and somewhat misleading).

The US home ownership rate has been reported at 64.2% in the latest quarter, identical to the rate a year earlier. (For comparison, the New Zealand home ownership rate is 62.3%.)

There was another regional factory survey out overnight, this one from the Kansas City Fed. Like all the others, this also shows an expansion that is withering. A year ago, their factory index stood at 24; now it is at 5.

American mortgage applications fell a sharp -7% last week from a week earlier.

The Bank of Canada reviewed its official interest rate and monetary policy positions yesterday, deciding to leave the rate unchanged at 1.75%. But in its review it had a glum assessment of Canada's future growth, saying 2019 will grow just +1.2%, rising to only +2% in the next two years. It said depressed business investment intentions are the biggest challenge for both it and the Government authorities. It doesn't see the international trade picture picking up any time soon. Pointedly, it sees an even worse situation in its big neighbour, the USA, expecting their growth (+1.7%) to be lower than Canada's. And it said their new tighter housing loan stress tests are in of themselves not having a major impact on their housing markets. The dovish view is weighing on the Canadian dollar.

The Bank of Japan also published its monetary policy review, and they too held their official rates unchanged (as expected). They are far from their inflation goal and their easy money policy will continue well into the future.

The South Korean economy has unexpectedly shrunk by -0.3% in the first quarter of 2019 caused bya drop in capital investment and falling exports.

In China yesterday, the Shanghai equity market fell a startling -2.4%. Perhaps a US report slamming China's efforts to control IP theft, piracy and counterfeiting is undermining the chances of a US:China trade deal.

The ECB has published a useful analysis of how tariffs are affecting world trade flows and who is paying the costs. In a separate study of the cost of washing machines in the US before and after some Trump Tariffs, they found the tariffs cost U.S. consumers US$815,000 for every job created - and much of that went to the manufacturers who found they could raise prices on many related items while producing less and employing fewer staff.

And staying in Europe, Germany's two largest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, have called off merger talks, something sure to frustrate policymakers in Berlin who were pushing for it to bolster two weak but crucial banks in the country.

In the UK, the head of major bank RBS, Kiwi Ross McEwan, has resigned. (He was previously a senior manager at both ASB and CBA.) He claims his work is done there. After nine years of losses, RBS returned to profit in 2017 and started paying dividends again in 2018. His contract has a year to run; he will have been in the role almost seven years.

The UST 10yr yield has drifted down by -4 bps over the holiday break and is now at 2.54%. Their 2-10 curve is firmer at +21 bps but their negative 1-5 curve is little-changed at -9 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 1.80% and down a chunky -10 bps since Wednesday, the China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.43%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is down -6 bps to 1.92% since Wednesday.

Gold is up +US$6, and now at US$1,278/oz.

US oil prices are down sharply today and now well off their recent highs, now just over US$65/bbl while the Brent benchmark is just over US$74/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar has weakened by -½c and now at 66.2 USc. Actually, since the start of April the Kiwi dollar has declined -2 full cents against the greenback, a -3% retreat. On the cross rates we are at 94.4 AUc and recovering all the collateral damage from the Aussie CPI miss. Against the euro we are at 59.5 euro cents which is a small gain. That puts the TWI-5 back at 71.2.

Bitcoin is at US$5,490 and a small -1.6% retreat since Wednesday. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».