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Barfoot & Thompson has started 2018 with lower sales, prices taking a dip and inventory levels rising

Property
Barfoot & Thompson has started 2018 with lower sales, prices taking a dip and inventory levels rising

Barfoot & Thompson's residential property sales volumes last month were at their lowest level for the month of January since 2011.

The agency, which is by far the largest in the Auckland region, sold 593 residential properties last month. That's down 36 from 629 in January 2017, and down 300 from 893 in January 2016.

Prices also dropped slightly, with the median selling price falling $40,000 to $830,000 from $870,000 in December, and $16,500 below the January 2017 median of $846,500.

January's average price was $934,753 compared to $939,871 in December, but above the January 2017 average of $913,938.

The decline in sales was mostly at the bottom of the market, with sales of properties priced above $1 million being similar to a year earlier, while sales of properties priced under $500,000 dropped from 13% of all sales in January 2017 to 8% of all sales last month.

Listings rise

However, while sales numbers and prices looked soft, new listings were strong, with Barfoots signing up 1200 new listings in January, the highest number of new listings in the month of January since 2014.

The lower number of sales and higher number of new listings pushed the agency's total stock of homes listed for sale to 4320 at the end of January, compared to 3620 at the end of January last year.

That means Barfoots are going into the peak summer selling season with the number of homes it has on its books up 19.3% compared to last year, and up a massive 68% compared to 2016.

This suggests that buyers will have the upper hand as the market heads into the peak summer selling period, with plenty of properties for them to choose from.

Market 'stable'

Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson described the Auckland market as stable.

"It was a steady start to the year with sales numbers remaining low while sellers and buyers reached agreement at prices consistent with those for the last quarter of 2017," he said.

"This stable trading trend first emerged in April last year and has rolled over to the start of the New Year."

Barfoot Auckland

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116 Comments

Increased stock and at best flat prices definitely makes for a buyers market, and that is going to put downward pressure on prices.
If a first home buyer, no urgency to rush.
If a seller not rebuying, then a little urgency.

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There are three directions a market can trend. Up, down or sideways. Sideways trend is a period of consolidation after a major move, and is to be expected.

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And down is expected after a period of unsustainable and fundamentally inflated price growth. The question is when. Highest listings + lowest sales only leads one way....

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Lowest sales since 2011. Which way has the Auckland market gone since MisterB? Possibly same thing could happen again

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I think it is much less likely the same thing happens again. Reason: Rental return as a % of cost in 2011, was much higher than now meaning that values are more stretched now than then. The only way the price continues up is if rent skyrockets or interest rates drop imo.

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I'm not sure you're reading the data properly. Lowest since 2011 does not mean its been going down since then. There is building inventory pressure and it is very unlikely that prices won't follow. The issue is getting worse every single month, so assuming it will remain the same is very naive.

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Not without foreign input, from one country in particular, which could happen again if the govt there decided they didn't want to stop capital flight after all.

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Last month "prices still rising"
This month "stable, steady, etc"

As in;
"stable the drawbridge!!!!"
"the stable 48 states of the USA"
"stable your weapon!"
"how could he do something so stable"

Vendors, you are going to need to have steadier expectations to sell in this market.

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And very stable genius

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Like

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Neigh-hey-hey-hey-hey

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Wow. A 4.7% drop in median prices from December.

That's a 56% loss annualised.

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Yeah, it is a nearly 3,000% loss over the next 50 years...

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Auckland still unaffordable

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No need to rush and buy at the moment as the heat has come out of the market if a cash buyer...patience is the key for lower prices and the likely higher rates in the future. Like Bitcoin gone up way too high and now the reality sets in when prices fall. Lower immigration numbers going forward...crack down on foreign investments and higher mortgage rates with an overpriced market there will be cracks in the property market going forward.

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Back in Jan, I came back from 3 weeks holiday in Japan. Our AirBnB host was telling me that properties in Japan's major cities are selling like hot cakes to wealthy Chinese buyers and our AirBnB is in fact owned by a Chinese couple living in Shanghai. So may be buying houses in NZ is weaning off as there is better deal elsewhere.

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So the $1m + market is still moving while the under $1m market is slowing to a crawl.

With the inventory rising, pressure in the lower end is rising. It all adds up to lower prices in that sector. Its going to be an interesting next 6 months or so

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On a 3 month rolling sales basis Barfoots have 6.5 months of listings on its books. M13 data nationwide sees prices stagnating for the next year. Banks will be pushing out the Ipads and grocery vouchers shortly.

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Who are likely to be the NZ based customers of the newly opened China Construction Bank?
NZ Permanent Residents? Chinese owned companies operating in NZ? Or anyone?

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" The decline in sales was mostly at the bottom of the market, with sales of properties priced above $1 million being similar to a year earlier, while sales of properties priced under $500,000 dropped from 13% of all sales in January 2017 to 8% of all sales last month."

So, people do not want Junk even at a discount and there will be less sold as we go forward...
Quality houses and modern $1M+ being "similar to last year" i.e. are holding and rising

Hmmm.... we knew all that and said it before , now B&T is confirming and Greg is still jumping to conclusions and assumes its a buyer's market because of choice!
No one sells at a discount unless they need to, and few of these do not disturb the markets

The Market was Off in the first 2 weeks of January, most people with kids are only getting back to real life this week ....

Patience is a virtue

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If you are selling at the market it is not a 'discount', any more than buying at last year's level was a 'premium'. Any people sell at the market price. You need to lose the cultural expectation that house prices always go up and that any decline is an anomaly.

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"The Market was Off in the first 2 weeks of January, most people with kids are only getting back to real life this week ...."

I think that applies to every January, so it is still another poor result against previous Januarys.

The good news for B&T is that last Feb was so bad for sales that surely they must sell more this Feb and that will give them something to crow about

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True, a full 35% below January of the last really hot year - 2016.

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Stock wise, most of Auckland stock falls into the "junk" and it's precisely that segment that inflated the prices, so will no doubt be that segment that collapses them

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Two aspects:
Firstly, if sales have fallen in the lower price brackets then this would keep up the average and median prices. Therefore the decline in prices is likely to be greater than these figures suggest at face value.

Secondly, it is interesting to note the change in commentary that is prevalent -banks, agents, economists are increasingly talking static - or declining market as distinct from the 'small increases' that was the language even three months ago. That has a big impact on those who are looking who see a chance of a lower price in six months, but very limited chance of a price increase.

If you look back 12 months - what was so bad with those prices that people felt obliged to pay more for a property and what is the chance of returning to that level.

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True, I note that everyone including banks is trying to keep a low profile about predictions and avoid going too much into details as they really do not know how the market will be shaping up.

Fundamentals point towards gentle appreciation ( depending on town and area) , yet noises from Gov, media and some stakeholders are pushing the more pessimistic scenario as to what they would like the market to be ...

I relay on my info and observation on 4 areas of interest in two major cities and these include both low and high end housing - no indicators whatsoever of any decline since the market tapered off early 2017 - and market prices were pinned down by the latest QV valuations. Other fellow investors and market followers generally report the same. certain types of housing have suffered more than others in all areas, however , those who bought highly overpriced houses in the peak with little consideration or real value are suffering big time ( most of these buyers are either foreigners or newbie speculators)

Time will tell

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The 'fundamentals' do not point toward 'gentle appreciation'. In fact they point to a larger fall than I suspect we will have.

In a previous post you cited rentals and house prices which were weekly rentals were around 1000 times the market value (a useful rule of thumb - weekly rental times 50 - (annual rental), divide by 5% return results in investment return 1000 times weekly rental). That is the 'fundamentals' of Auckland house prices. I personally don't see it falling back to that level for a while - 10 years.

But every 'fundamental' points to steady decline in 2018.

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The Kiwi market has been subsidized by ultra-cheap money coming from record low interest rates offshore ...

... that amazing situation appears to be grinding to a halt ...

And a return to more normalized higher interest rates may occur ...

... which will do severely nasty things to the overleveraged speculators in the Orc Land housing market .... there'll be blood !

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No they don't Sir ,,, but you are entitled to your view and assessment ...

Property goes in cycles, so does Yield which improves with inflation rate , and CG .... this combination has been there for ages -- at least for the last 40-50 years.

Property investment is like a fairytale story ...most cannot get their head around it and think it is a gamble .. while it is solid investment for the patient conaissors ...

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Certainly your interpretation appears to be a fairy tale.

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lol, Yes that's what I just said

you've got that right ... :)

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But hey, it’s a good fairytale, as you say

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Said like a stable genius who is the bigliest investor. You should tweet about it right now.

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For yields to improve there would need to be a fall in prices or an increases in rentals. While there are rental spikes in some areas (Wellington, western BoP “districts” (ie excluding Tauranga metro area) which would indicate material shortfalls of accomodation in those areas, with all due respect to those areas they are not of such size that they move the needle in terms of the overall national housing picture and the banking sector. Auckland is the key market in terms of value and price. And in Auckland rents have consistently increased over the last few years only by about 2-3% in real terms. That’s material but not significant and is completely disconnected from increases in houses prices. Given the experience of the last few years, I would say the chances of significant increases in Auckland rents in the foseeable purely as a result of increased demand for accommodation seems low. Given wage increases are running at 2% the chance in the foreseeable future of extraordinary rent increases being induced by wage increases is....slim to zero.

If you want to look at capital gain, given likely future wage increases are around 2% capital gains are most likely to arise via reduction in interest rates. Given rates are already at historic lows, and what’s happening overseas esp in the US, the likelihood of further rate falls is low. It’s far more likely there will be increases in funding costs. So the capital gains picture doesn’t look that flash either.

Absent capital gain, at current GROSS yields in Auckland of 4% no one is making a real return on equity from investment property. When you compare that to a risk free rate of return the real return from an investment property is zero or negative. What you are buying is the right to all future capital gains. Without capital gains, you get zero real return at current prices. At current prices and yields, property investment is like picking up pennies in front of a leverage steamroller. You get no risk premium whatsoever for the risk you are taking. It’s a dog.

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you got it Bob. The spruikers can read as much as they like into the stats. But simply, the ppty madness was an attempt by all to get on the tax free cap gain band wagon. No cap gain...then no reason to hold. So sell they will....the flood will come, not if, but when.

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I agree with you. It's possible for every single house in Auckland to drop in value over 6 months but still maintain a "gentle appreciation" in the average sales prices.

A house that sold for $1.4 million could well have sold for $1.6 million if on the market 6 months prior. The problem is being able to prove what the house could have sold for then, but that doesn't discredit my first paragraph.

E.G. Pak n Save have a special on Molenberg bread $1.99 per loaf down from $3.89 and everybody who normally goes out and buys Homebrand for $0.99 buys the Molenberg instead. Pak N Save sees a 50% increase in the average price of a loaf of bread for that week, but has the individual price of a loaf of bread gone up?

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I disagree re fundamentals.

The fundamental of people looking for a place to live is pushing prices up.

The fundamentals of people’s ability to pay higher prices or rent is pushing prices down.

The fundamental of regulation and tax favourability of investment properties is pushing prices down.

The fundamental of low interest rates is neutral but may shortly move to pushing prices down should those rates rise.

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The fundamental is that we are 40,000 units behind and that is increasing by 5000 every year, the other fundamental is that borrowing is being made harder for developers to build so shortage will be higher,
The fundamental is that we have organic growth of more people wanting to move out and live on their own ( whether rent or buy)

The resultant facts so far is that prices are holding -- the crash is not here, there are no sign of even that starting anytime soon - maybe all those who are holding back from buying now are waiting for the wonderful affordable kiwi built the Gov have been promising -- Great !! ... my guess is that once that rolls on, the junkstock in Auckland will be in favour again ( being cheaper than the new stuff) ....

Time will tell, people who can buy and wait too long might loss big time ...

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The resultant facts so far is that prices are holding -- the crash is not here,

More accurately. There is no evidence that a crash is happening or will happen.

there are no sign of even that starting anytime soon

More accurately, There are no signs that you are aware of that the a crash could start soon.

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lol, well please tell us when it happens or when you see it :)

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Like most people, I would not be aware of a crash in property prices until after the fact. And even a "crash" occurs, there will be plenty of people who will deny it's a "crash". Property crashes are usually subjective and emotional.

I'm not a fraud or charlatan, so I don't predict crashes. Plenty of people who would discount the likelihood of a crash. People like Ashley Church, even though they have no background in how to quantitatively validate the non-existent of bubbles.

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I wouldn't write down Mr. Church or people who spent a long time in this industry and business - every trade has a secret that is unnecessarily known or understood by outsiders -

We can smell when market is losing steam and when it is heading down - the fact that most investors chose to sit the decline period out is not because it caught them by surprise - they actually are best placed to seize the opportunities ...

Time and again i say property is not shares or bonds or any other commodity trading ...

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Oh, my sides. Comedy Festival started again eh.

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I wouldn't write down Mr. Church or people who spent a long time in this industry and business - every trade has a secret that is unnecessarily known or understood by outsiders

You mean like being at the top of the chain of the Mormon church?

Time and again i say property is not shares or bonds or any other commodity trading ...

I see. So you're not a troll. You're actually one of these with psychic powers.

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As I said above - fairy tale grasp of the facts.

If the demand was driven by population, rather than speculation, why didn't rentals also double?
A point that the 'to infinity and beyond' commentators miss is basic economics - prices go up and so demand goes down. Effectively people find alternatives (more intense housing, commuting, moving elsewhere).

The margins above a market appropriate rental return is speculation - that is how people won Nobel prizes in economics.

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With all due respect to your "basic economics" .... the fact that you asked such a silly question about doubling or rents shows the need to go back to school ....or ask your neighbours !!

See my other posts regarding rent increase - rents do not rise in the same proportion of property values - if it did , a lot of NZers would be sleeping rough !!

I wish you luck with your Nobel Prize nomination!

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I think you miss the point. Asset prices should reflect yield or future asset growth. In most markets the rent to price ratio remains in the same range... and per IMF data, where these become disconnected an asset price correction invariably occurs. It is plainly naive to assume that can never happen. It is a very Titanic way of viewing things.

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It is tough with the Nobel Prize - since Robert Shiller bet me to the Nobel with exactly that analysis.

Key point - when rentals rise significantly faster than house prices it is speculation. That is also why IMF housing analysis uses that as a measure.

Eco-bird - I read with interest your comments and can't work out if you actually believe the stuff you say or are just having fun because you don't seem to think before you write it.

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Yeah, Maybe so ...for starters , I should have thought before replying to you lot -

I am guilty of breaking my own rules !! so sorry won't do that again ....

let me get back to my Pinot Noir and dinner .... enjoy yours !!

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Let them drink wine

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You keep talking about demand as a fundamental, but fail to explain how the increasing current listings indicate that demand remains high (at current prices).

When demand is high, the stock reduces. That was what was peddled to us two years ago, so why isnt the reverse of that logic also true? Ah the blinders of an property sprukier... the market is either great or awesome. That is what they all say. But of course its different in little old new zealand

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The demand for greater fools has exceeded supply!

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Drops mic

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My heart bleeds for Barfoots

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Haha. I wonder if they have one of those ridiculous self congratulatory awards ready for ‘Real Estate Agent who managed to keep the late model european car’.

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I've been to a few open homes in last one month and all the agents acknowledge that houses aren't selling at the current CV, in fact, about 10-15% below CV. Just one year ago, houses were selling at about 20-30% above CV. I don't know where it'd go from here. Unfortunately, prices are so high, we can't afford even at these discounted prices.

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Something to point out here, the new CVs in Auckland were reported as 45% higher on average. So if last year they were selling at 30% above CV and are now selling at 15% below CV then the price has remained roughly the same.

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No it doesn't. 15% below the 2017 CV is not the same as 30% above the 2014 CV.

Maths:
2015 value (v) = 500,000 ; Sold at v x 1.30 = 650,000
2017 value (v2) = v x 1.45 = 725,000; Sold at v2 x 0.85 = 616,250

So actual sales price would be ~$34k lower year on year, or 5% down.

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Apologies, I should have explained myself better. FamilyGuy gave a range so the based on that its -5% down or +9% up, roughly. In fact according to your logic we can assume on average we would be +2% up.

However I still stand by fact that range is basically flat.

-Workings

Maths Lower Range:
2015 value (v) = 500,000 ; Sold at v x 1.30 = 650,000
2017 value (v2) = v x 1.45 = 725,000; Sold at v2 x 0.85 = 616,250

Maths Upper Range:
2015 value (v) = 500,000 ; Sold at v x 1.20 = 600,000
2017 value (v2) = v x 1.45 = 725,000; Sold at v2 x 0.9 = 652,500

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I see what you're saying. Whether "flat" on a much reduced sales figure (making median and average much less stable) actually equals flat is debatable.

Elephant in the room is the very very low sales and lending growth. Jan 2016 was down on Jan 2015 and we were told it was a blip. Now Jan 2017 down on that further and all roads lead to price pressure on the downside. The stock level indicates reluctance from sellers to adjust expectations and the increased listings indicate more wanting to cash up. With light credit growth, how does this play out without lowering prices (let alone all the posturing from politicians on further suplly increase via kiwibuild and demand suppression via inestment riles)

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FamilyGuy your comment is not unexpected.
You seem likely to be a FHB.
Auckland house prices are no longer fair value related to income and rent yield. As I have said on this site, from 1981 the first house I bought has gone from 4 times to 12 times the equivalent salary. Rent yields are around 4%. Lack of fair value means many FHB and property investors have been priced out from buying.
So lets face it; Auckland has an overpriced housing market and it has swung towards a buyers market which will put downward pressure on prices.
Don't rush, take your time. Look around for something that is really ideal for you and well priced; then put in a cheeky low ball offer as vendors will fear continuing both falling values and competition from other selelrs so therefore are likely to be keen to jump at your offer.
I suspect that the cost of your rent will be offset by movements in the market in the short term at least.
One last thing; don't listen to "agent speak". They couldn't give a dam about you; the information you quote is just "conditioning" you into buying. Read the interest.co.nz reports, and use the freebie Trade Me Insight to track prices on selected houses and monitor what properties did recently sell for. And before you buy, spend the $650 to get a registered valuation; you will more than save this when negotiating down to buy.

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Gravity kicks in after rocket booster shut down by change in govt and incoming legislation. 2018 could be a really interesting year as ponzi headwinds are far from over.

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All we need now is a visit from Mr Wage Inflation to light the fuse. I notice the German unions are now saying 6% and the Japanese unions 4%. That was unthinkable a couple of years ago.

Just remember the Powers That Be simply adore a visit from Mr and Mrs Asset Price Inflation but hate Mr and Mrs Wage Inflation with a Vengeance. Yes, I know it's unfair and all that. Remember, the Powers That Be are not kiwis, they are the top 0.1% in the US, China, Japan and Germany and they will keep the workers in their place. No ifs, ands or buts.

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Negative interest rates could be hard to swallow for many savers.

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I am told that is why traditionally the wealthy Europeans like to own gold in Switzerland.

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Just put it all on the mortgage!

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Truth is that Auckland prices have a mighty long way to go before they could be regarded as realistic .

That said , its actually good to see the loss of steam in the market , its been easy -street for too long .

Now those developers without pre-sales or defaulting off-plan buyers will be the next space to watch , as the noose tightens ...........

Let's also not forget a falling market becomes reinforcing , in anticipation of further price falls, buyers sit on their hands , and they have waited so long , that a few more months will not make much difference to them , but a big difference to sellers and developers .

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Also, Auckland city has a mighty long way to go before it can realistically call itself the most livable city. As demonstrated, one small nose-to-tail accident on The Harbour bridge and the whole Auckland traffic will grind to a halt.

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two of the most realistic comments posted in a long time :)

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how much is due to the fall in overseas buyer, B&T targeted a specific country for purchasers,
pity we dont have a register so we know.
will be an interesting census this years to see OO rates, and population make up in certain places + and -

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Less than 3% i'd say.

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That the property spruikers herein spend so much of their time protesting against the possibilities of a decline in residential home prices, surely tells us a lot about the future and also about their too high investment in property.

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Agree specuvestors complain to much as fundamentals change, why...because NZ voted to change them. Brag on the way up. Moan on the way down.

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I like that so much I have to copy it.

"Brag on the way up. Moan on the way down."

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Yes agreed the property spruikers should also realize that this isn't an isolated event with NZ (Mostly Auckland) property prices falling. The other popular foreign investor cities are also feeling the with draw symptoms with the freeze of capital out flows.

Article SBS news: Foreign investors pull out of Australia's property market
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/foreign-investors-pull-out-of-australia-s-p…

Article Better Dwelling: US Federal Reserve: Canadian Real Estate Prices Are The Fastest Falling In The World.
https://betterdwelling.com/us-federal-reserve-canadian-real-estate-pric…

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It's possible the New BC NDP government may do something about laundering of money through the Vancouver property market after this rather brazen criminal enterprise.
https://www.google.ca/amp/vancouversun.com/news/national/huge-b-c-money…

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I’ve spent a reasonable time on this planet – and yet I don’t think I’ve ever seen residential property “crash”.
I’ve seen long, drawn out declines and relatively sharp declines – but in each case years were involved in the process.
There are very few that willingly throw what may be their largest, or at least one of their largest financial assets on the bonfire – and if there are large enough numbers who see no other option but to do that then don’t panic, normally financial regulators will do what they can to ensure that it does become an epidemic.
I’ve seen shares crash, maybe will see crypto currencies crash, possibly saw personalised plates crash (though I wasn’t really looking) and what on earth happened to Telecom phone cards – did they crash or simply vanish, and did anyone care, someone must have I assume.
As an aside, I think we’ve reached some sort of “funny” exhaustion point in the real market – puzzled, confused buyers and sellers – too many conflicting and flashing signals, real or otherwise.
However, in mcmansion land the motives may be different – simply do whatever to get your hands on one, and quick – time is of the essence!

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I've been trough a property crash in the UK and I can tell you it's not pretty. But that was the GFC when banks we're too afraid to lend to one another due to toxic assets and liar loans (Sub prime).

Any now, we're in a fairly unique situation where property prices have been mostly pushed up by external forces and local Speculators backed by the banks, all of which have now lost their momentum.

Well once vendors properties have been sat on the market for a year or so you can expect this to happen; 'gazundering' it's when buyers decide to pull out at the last minute to force vendors to drop their price significantly.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1020058/Falling-house-prices-us…

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Yes, it’s not pretty that’s for sure – but I have no real first-hand knowledge of the UK crash – was it a brutal year on year process – or did it simply blow up.
From what your suggesting it was still a multiple year process – with every month another 5% being sliced off – and any positive equity slowly but surely eroded until the gut wrenching reality of finally being underwater hits.
A crash – just played out in slow motion.

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Well from my perspective the UK property crash was fairly gradual for the first year and a half where most vendors we're playing the waiting game for the market to recover. Then came the realisation that the market wasn't going to recover any time soon. That's when the gazundering started and prices quickly tumbled.

My property fell by -20% (In outer London area). And took five years to recover. Prices were pushed up again by guess who; foreign buyers.

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I believe Auckland will do similar to that and correct by about 20 - 25% especially in the under $1m sector where there is a lot of overvalued, old crappers for sale. They are not selling now but eventually the pressure will need to be released, just a matter of time.

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I would count long declines as crashes when values drop up to 70% like the did in Ireland in 2007 and some US cities/states.

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Try Phoenix - where prices dropped to 1/3rd off peak.
The banks were too busy trying to save themselves to care,

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Talking of share crashes versus property – it’s often said that residential property in a general sense is going up and down every day – but as it’s not traded as an index unit or share you just can’t see it. If it was it would move up or down every day depending on news releases such as wage growth, employment numbers, immigration, construction costs, sales figures, unsold inventory etc etc….
I recall the US created various city indices you could trade – long, short etc – I don’t know if they still exist.
To have such an index in Auckland would be interesting – but probably nigh on impossible – getting agreement on its construct, good grief!!
Still, it would be an opportunity for property owners and non-owners alike to take a position in the game. Don’t own property, but wish you did, here’s your opportunity to make out like a bandit – take the index and back up the truck.
Think it’s going to crash – go short and brave, but it’s Auckland, so maybe don’t go too far away from the buy button.
And then you can throw in some option plays for a little protection – or leverage up if you’re game.
C’mon – someone give it a go – and clip the ticket for your trouble – real estate commissions are in a bit of a slump I understand – this is perfect, once again, it matters not if the market is rising or falling – just simply participate in the trade!

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Been a flood of new listings in 1071 the past few days. They are moatly auctions where as trend of late was negotiation or price. I hate auctions and see it as a win for the agents. Can anyone shed some light on a vendors motivation in this market to opt for auction? Surely it works to their disadvantage in a sideways or down market.

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I live in 1071 and personally don’t like auctions, even though I sold and bought through auction for my home change a few years back.

Speaking to an agent friend it’s about demand. The Bays are not flooded with homes for sale of the type buyers want i.e. detached family homes, preferably on a full site for $2m plus. In that situation an auction is likely to get the best price. The last figures I saw for Dec were CV less 2% on average.

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The weekly Barfoot auction results reveal "zero" houses sold across the entire eastern beaches last week (1st Feb). In Kohimarama a grand total of 7 properties were sold in the last recorded monthly time interval. They're still maintaining nosebleed prices for now, but trading on pretty thin volume.

Here are the Nov 17 / Jan 16 Auction results for Kohimarama

http://barfootsuburbsales.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/KOHI-Sales-R…

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...

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Eco Bird – you state the following:
“The fundamental is that we are 40,000 units behind and that is increasing by 5000 every year, the other fundamental is that borrowing is being made harder for developers to build so shortage will be higher”.
In all seriousness I do ponder the following – let’s assume we now have more tradies that can swing a hammer – that’s what their good at but that’s pretty much all their good at.
At the moment let’s assume their all busy – however, in a general sense they always will need to stay busy – and also, developers will again, need to stay busy – mouths to feed and food on the table etc.
To do the above they will need to stay busy, to stay busy they will need to be competitive, to be competitive their pricing and performance will need to meet market, in whatever form.
To fix the problem we have created a machine – I don’t know how easy it will be to pack this machine away and only bring it out when conditions fit.
Unintended consequences – they simply have to keep building.

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Custard, that is fair comment. However the smaller concerns, and lets face it these are the tradies that NZ relies on to get stuff done, will always go for the optimal margin as they dont have the competitive edge that their larger counterparts do. They simply dont have the resources to be able to weather the usual situations which occur within NZ’s typical feast/famine building cycles. Larger corporates can, and do, take opportunity over profitability by keeping assets productive at cost and then being able to make their margins in other areas often at the expense of smaller ones. That said the Labour vision of 100,000 houses in 10 years is currently a pipedream even if we qualify what is meant by affordable homes. The only way this will be achieved, in fact even 50% of the promised target, despite potential macroeconomic shocks etc, is through influx of foreign labour prepared to work at even tighter margins. Where these people will be accomodated is anybody’s guess. But hey, Labour received the mandate (apparently) and we are all going to prosper together under their wise and visionary stewardship.

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Why don't you click on reply when you are addressing a particular comment?

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Auckland shmauckland.. don't you know Wellington is where the property market is going nuts these days?

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Wellington is certainly active at the moment - but Auckland is more than holding its own........

Try finding good houses (fee simple) in the inner city suburbs: it's almost impossible. And that situation is destined to continue.

TTP

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speaking of crashing markets Bitcoin has crashed to $6400 from $20,000 a month or so ago, that is a loss of 2/3 of its value. Some of the fools will be hurting, thats for sure!!!

Auckland wont match that, I can guarantee!

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Acme Currency Inc.

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One of my ex-work colleague sold their Westmere house in Sept 2017 with a healthy profit and bought few bitcoins when it was around 14000 USD. This is going to hurt!

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Happens to the best of us. Apparently even Isaac Newton went broke chasing the south sea bubble. Having said that, it was pretty obvious that bitcoin, at it's zenith, was a greater bubble than all previous bubbles in human history (in terms of % gains over time). The fact that bitcoin has no intrinsic value and no offers no dividends makes the whole thing a bit of a laugh for onlookers.

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Ouch.

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Auckland wont match that, I can guarantee!

Only time will tell.

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Without wishing to appear too churlish, based on the comment gushing forth from Waitangi it wont matter too much what’s happening on the economic front as next election it appears we may be voting along the lines of (to pinch a few lines from Blackadder) Arden the even younger, Arden the toddler, Arden the embryo or Arden the glint in the milkman’s eye.

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Woe betide anyone who now openly castigates Jacinda. You’ll become public enemy number one and likewise, if you say something about Winnie you’ll be accused of pensioner bashing.

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But thankfully we will have John Key, not present, but a perinnial whipping boy, nice, white and rich, that we can pull out on the fly and thrash for all the ills we are presently beset with and of course all future malaise that will certainly befall us.

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He had 8 years to gain that kind of status, and as it turns out, I reckon it was pretty well deserved. You seem also to have missed he spent the entire time he was at the helm blaming the previous Labour govt and then not doing anything, so there is plenty more to come where that goes.
Jacinda Adern has been there for a few short months and look. You wouldn't be biased by any chance, would you? At least give her one term or even a year before you come down with your judgments. Give her a chance to actually DO something, maybe a block of time that doesn't include a long Xmas break for business.

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There is no timeout or pause button in politics.

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Ha - Give Ardern a year and she will have stolen the entire future of the small capitalist! Goodbye Ancient Rights, Goodbye Equality, Goodbye Honesty and Integrity!!

Any person who displays a happy disposition on the outside, all the while trying to change everything is someone who needs to be closely watched!

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Smiling assassin? We haven't seen one of those before in NZ politics (yeah right..)

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Goodbye equality?? We waved that off years ago.

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I look forward with bated breath...

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Was trying for humour, Christ knows I needed some levity. True, Im a little more blue than red I suppose but I also had more than enough reservation about Key’s government and in fact any government. Doesnt make me some kind of libertarian though. By the way don’t confuse my ramblings as a judgement, more a conceit on an entire system and the sycophantasy of much of the headline commentary both from the newsroom desk chair and the armchair critic alike. Well done Pocket, you have led me to make up a new word. I will use it sparingly, I doubt accusations of sycophantasy will be too well tolerated round the traps.

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.. some of us appreciate your sterling effort at humour ... if Malcolm Gladwell is to be believed , another 10 000 hours of practice , and you'll have it cracked ...

In the land-of-the-long-white-face , anyone who stands out as a wannabe comedian has got to be joking ...

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Just wait for a few like DGZ, TM2, Zach and TTP they are funny.

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haha

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For 12 months ending Jan 18, opening inventory = 3620, closing inventory = 4320, new listings exceeded sales by 9782. Suggests that a whopping 9082, almost half new listings, disappeared off B&Ts books without actually being sold. Recent B&T releases note that their delisting rate is relatively low at about "10%", but apparently not so now???

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