Saturday 21 March is the day when community transmission of COVID-19 first became evident. It is apparent that there is now at least one COVID-19 case from unknown community transmission, with this being in the Wairarapa. There also appears to be a case in Auckland involving a two-step infection back to a traveller.
Assuming the Wairarapa infection occurred three to seven days ago, then the likelihood is that there are now multiple more cases ‘out there’ waiting to be found.
Until now, the cases predominantly link to air arrivals up to about 15 March and most are from several days prior to that. But in this last week, the risk profile of new returnees has increased considerably.
Given that identified infections have risen approximately six-fold in the last week, currently standing at 53 and up from 28 just two days ago, it is reasonable to expect a similar rate of increase in the next week. An increase of anything less than three-times over the coming week would be a good outcome, but that would still take us to over 150 cases.
For arrivals from most countries, the apparent risk factor associated with each person has increased by a factor of about four in this last week, but for those from the United States it appears to have increased at a considerably faster rate. The flow of returnees in this last week has been remarkable.
In designing the appropriate policy for this coming week, the key issues relate to the people who arrived last week, together with all of the people who are still to come in this week.
There are two key weak points with the current control system. The first relates to the lax quarantining of people, including but not only New Zealanders, arriving from overseas. The second relates to internal transmission within the country through the contacts of these people. I have previously described these as fatal flaws.
The time has now come for all new returnees to be placed upon arrival in Government quarantine for fourteen days at army facilities. Returnees could be transported to facilities such as at Whangaparoa, Linton and Burnham, including using chartered planes from Auckland.
There must be thousands of camper vans that rental companies would love to rent to the authorities to house the returnees at the army bases. The army could feed them. If necessary, hotels could be contracted to provide additional meals. The system has essentially already been trialled for the 150 Wuhan returnees back in early February.
As for internal transmission, it is remarkable that pubs, restaurants, libraries, museums and gyms still remain open. Where they have closed, then it is based on decisions by local authorities and individual businesses, not by central government.
I have been hearing our Prime Minister referring multiple times to the examples of Taiwan, Singapore and even South Korea as the models we are following. This is make-believe from her health advisers who clearly do not understand how those societies work. I have discussed that previously.
In any case, numbers are now ramping up again in all three of these countries, largely driven by their own citizens returning home but also from internal transmission.
The following quote is taken from a comment in the New York Times, dated there as 20 March. It was written for an American audience, and of course with American spelling, but it is just as relevant for us. The key point is that we may think that we are patterning ourselves on these countries, but we aren’t.
“I was in Taiwan for several months when the Wuhan outbreak first happened. People on the street were concerned, fearful, but staunch - went about their daily routines. The government was really fast - boarding airplanes from China, taking temperatures of passengers and also arriving passengers from different places. If you went to a restaurant or museum, your temperature was first taken, your hands sanitized, and you had to wear a face mask if you wanted in. The custom in Taiwan is opposite Italy’s, people keep a polite distance. Public touching, not much. Public and mass transportation - wear face masks. Healthcare is universal and data of sick people went right to the epidemiology command center in real time. People were quarantined and tracked by their cell-phone to ensure compliance. Violators were fined substantially.”
I have yet to see any evidence of thermometers being used as a screening tool in New Zealand.
I also note our Prime Minister says in defence of our testing rate that the New Zealand rate is similar to South Korea on a per capita basis. There are two issues there.
First, I think her advisers have got their maths wrong. But even more important, they have not factored in that the South Korean outbreak was focused in the city of Daegu, and also that most of the infected people belonged to a particular religious sect, with these people largely socialising among themselves. Every member of that sect who could be identified, some 200,000, was tested. Despite all of those advantages, infections are increasing rather rapidly again in South Korea, with over 380 new cases in the last three days.
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Here in New Zealand, a key voice that authorities do not seem to be listening to is Professor Michael Baker from the Wellington Campus of Otago Medical School. His speciality is public health. He has spoken publicly on multiple occasions in recent weeks about COVID-19 and these statements are easily found by googling his name.
In recent days, Professor Baker has talked about schools being great places for viruses to spread within and hence the need to now close schools until we get things under control. Today, he has also described the current situation and lack of testing in New Zealand as “emblematic of the need for a pulse of lockdown”. He says that “it sounds melodramatic to say now or never, but I think it's the case."
As for asking over-70s to stay at home, I am cautious about that. As a measure of self-protection, it will become increasingly necessary as the infection rates rise. But right now, the key issue is getting ahead of the curve, and it won’t help very much at all in that regard.
Given that the Government’s policy is increasingly looking like flattening the curve, and hence consistent with a long-term goal of herd immunity rather than focusing on stamping it out, the over-70s are at risk of being shut up for a very long time. The issue of social isolation of this group becomes of great importance.
The longer that our leaders and their advisers focus on the rear vision mirror and use incorrect analogies from overseas, then the more we will stay behind the curve.
Let’s get pro-active and stamp it out. The harder we stamp then the shorter time it will take. And that means that we all have to do our part in the next month to six weeks.
If we stamp hard enough then we still have an excellent chance of eliminating the disease from our shores, although we will now have to stamp considerably harder than if we had moved more proactively a week ago. It is in that context that I said several days ago that the Government had lost the plot.
Government quarantine of all new returnees, plus closing of pubs, restaurants, nightclubs and gyms, and also unfortunately the closing of schools until the end of Easter, is what we now need. The alternative is a long and brutal winter.
*Keith Woodford was Professor of Farm Management and Agribusiness at Lincoln University for 15 years through to 2015. He is now Principal Consultant at AgriFood Systems Ltd, and has had a longstanding interest in epidemiology. He can be contacted at kbwoodford@gmail.com
377 Comments
Lol Skudiv I have been exactly the same opinion as Keith. I will explain my perspective for the cattle disease. Mbovis had been here for a couple of years at least. We have victims that cant tell us they are ill. A testing regime that doesnt give a reliable result. And a disease that is very good at hiding itself. Also a disease that every other country in the world bar one (that doesnt have it) was managing to live with successfully. I also felt we must keep our powder dry for foot and mouth. Exhausting ourselves over mbovis. What a waste.
Right, Belle. And as Jo Nova notes, the third choice (not mentioned in the MSM, which offers only 1) 'Let 'er Rip' or 2) 'Flatten the Curve') is of course #3 'Crush the Curve'. As was done in the village of Vò, the site of Italy's first Covid19 death. And it was done by extensive and repeated testing.....
I just email to NZTA saying I know how we can save hundreds, thousands of lives, save many hours of volunteer firefighter time, hospital staff and emergency workers..that we immediately ban use if all motorvehicles, I then went one further to save hundreds more ban use quadbikes and tractors on farms...they said I'm overreacting.
We gave been down this road before twice.
There are more deaths from horses. To ban Quads, horses need to banned first. That will include pony club and horse racing. Political suicide.
There was also the call to ban firearms but that came back to NZ having the best firearms record in the world. One person with a firearms license has committed murder and that was the Chch issue. He souldnt have got a firearms license in the first place.
Yep that’s going to happen for sure there’s no way NZ can work something out with Aus as they just will not pay anything for Kiwis if they don’t have to. No ANZAC spirit when it comes down to $.
Loads of mates and me already on LWOP aircraft all on the ground bleeding millions by the day. Hard to find another job doing anything as well. Luckily we have minimal debt and can live off my wife’s salary in the meantime but others are already unable to pay the mortgage this is going to be the mother of all depressions.
100% agree with Goldsmith:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120474386/coronavir…
I found the period post GFC under the National government to be exceptional circumstances - they did everything possible to pump a debt based ponzi called a property bubble, and relied on the votes of those maximising their wealth to support them in setting those policies. That was short term thinking, it was insanity - but you couldn't say that as it was all doom/gloom.
Now we are about to suffer the consequences of those policies, so not sure why we should support those who maximised their wealth the last 10 years?
Two of my teenage kids just been told no more work, they still at school, but have pt restaurant jobs...no subsidy for them, four of there friends in same boat. Both there sports stopped as well,...I seriously think fabric of society will crumble if this last for 3 months...shock.. denial...anger...
I agree with Fritz and Goldsmith. Goldsmith is the only National MP who has stuck his head above the parapet in this crisis. In Goldsmith, I would say that National have found the natural choice to replace Simon Bridges. Let's face it the rest have gone AWOL: Collins, Paula Hunt, I can't even remember the names of the rest of them.....all yesterday's men/women.
To be fair I don't have much truck with NZ1st .....they're probably still wining and dining with their big-business mates. I would also say that the Greens are shell-shocked and well and truly out of their depth.
Jacinda is the only choice we've got to lead us through this crisis, whether we like it or not.
'After reporting another shocking jump in deaths, the Italian government has gone full "Wuhan", ordering a shutdown of industrial production.
In a speech delivered just before midnight on Saturday in Rome, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced that he is ordering ALL non-essential businesses to be closed, and for Italians to stay home.
These measures are slightly more restrictive than the current measures, which allow Italians more freedom to move about their towns and communities. They will also likely result in a much larger economic hit, as Italy's industrial stalwarts are forced to pause operation.
And just like that, an entire country - 60 million Italians - is now under 'shelter in place.''
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/army-deploys-new-york-nyc-report…
And in little old far away NZ a nurse returns all the way from Africa and straightaway commences work at a retirement rest home full of the most vulnerable, and now that nurse is down with our friend the hottest virus around. Blimey, what sort of management can allow that? Can we not take precautionary measures that should be so damn bleeding obvious. It is unbelievable. Bet you at the bottom of it, it was all about costs, the money, and not the residents. Caregivers? More likely careless takers I would suggest.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has revealed a total $189 billion stimulus package to help the Australian economy through the coronavirus pandemic.
This figure is worth about 10 per cent of the size of the Australian economy and includes extending the eligibility to benefit payments.
UK package of last week was 14% GDP.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-you-to-comply-scott-mor…
Expect to see something out of Wellington this week.
Something more than the swing and miss package of last week, that was a tiny 4% of GDP.
PM & PM depart need remember the full phrase.
Go hard and go early, or go home
Leaders and leadership is emerging.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120477240/coronavirus…
A group of doctors and other health workers say the Government has just days or hours to prevent New Zealand from following the path of Italy.
They've begun a petition, urging the Government to raise New Zealand's covid-19 threat to the highest possible level, effectively locking down the country.
Dr Kelvin Ward, an urgent care physician in Wellington, handed the first lot of signatures to the Director General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield after the his daily press conference announcing the number of new Covid-19 cases.
......
"Over 2200 people from the medical community have banded together to inform this hardworking government that New Zealand has only a short time to avoid disaster on the scale of Italy's coronavirus epidemic - that's how fast this virus spreads," he said.
Game on. What will the PMs Depart do, the initiative has been taken away, the headline gone. Not her idea.
Other hand, Inaction = lives.
3 of the last 10 cases are people in their 20s.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…
That would make you Dr Bob.
Dr Bob
Couple of things.
Anecdotally 18 to 30s are feeling this is nothing to do with them.
Remembering we don't want anyone, anyone to die.
18 to 30s with the virus, as virus cases, pass the virus on to the population of any age.
And the point: Effective messaging to 18 to 30s has yet to be devised.
A useful Metering page from the Renaissance Man hisself, Willis Eschenbach. His preamble is useful, too: consider how many ventilators, hospitals, rapid staff-training courses etc etc could be purchased with the x% of GDP being thrown at - well, everything except those very items - and being thrown by Gubmint in response to economic turmoil caused by - Gubmint! No doubt there;s a middle course, but it's all worth thinking about. The US is much different to NZ, not having bet the farm on that Green Icon - long-haul tourism to our 100% Pure country. But there are similarities in that essential services (however defined) have to carry on if we aren't to shoot our entire foot off. As it is, we're missing a toe or two already....
while the NZ Govt makes everything voluntary they won't be able to contain the virus.
All international inward flights apart from cargo should be halted.
Advising over 70s to stay home...rubbish....make it compulsary
No more self isolation.....compulsory quarantine.
Waikato Times says PM declares war on Covid 19 but you can't fight a war with 1 arm tied behing your back.
This Govt is starting to look a wee bit amatuerish.
I suspect the Government is letting people get mentally prepared for this. I expect that lockdown is rapidly approaching. Tomorrow I'll head in for my last day in the office and leave a number of computers running for remote access. I might as well work from home from now on.
I ended up making this decision after seeing the disproportionate spike in cases. Even if they can track them down to international travel the risk of community transmission is too high now.
but oh the Kiwifruit guys and Apple guys, Squash guy's, grape guys, on the phone to PM begging, disaster don't do it, remember we are all in this together like a big family. We scratch each others backs, so a few old people die so what, herd immunity only way to go. Pretty please.
https://twitter.com/garethmorgannz/status/1241234954706497536/photo/1
Gareth Morgan
Who the hell are Jacinda’s advisers? Look at this that’s come out of WHO. For goodness sake you Bozos move NZ to Level 4 – NOW !!! You are nowhere near in front of the curve – just journeymen compliance cretins. NZ is 35th in preparedness. Given that we must act cid:f_k8140aud0
California, New York, New Jersey over a 100 mill can do it. Why not NZ? On the other hand as a rough calculation about 0.00175% of NZ’s population are affected as at today. Hawaii another entity of community islands is less than 100 too and they have had in the beginning, and before NZ, much much more tourist involvement and have greater population density in Honolulu at least.
Which would suggest that organising society according to economic theory and "values" has distorted real value.
If communities grew their own food and helped each other build shelter there would be no homeless. Unemployment, lost businesses and economic catastrophe wouldn't be problems.
Alert level 4:
This is where we have sustained transmission. This is where we eliminate contact with each other altogether. ...we ask everyone to stay at home until COVID-19 is back under control."
Ok. Go to Level 4 now and tell me when we rescind it, given that it's expected it could come in several Waves over many months (18?) and fluctuate over that time?
Enacting Level 4 is the easy bit - removing it, not so. But I guess we can let the Panel of Doctors make that call and let them explain the economic consequences - at both ends.
The point is you ease off when you need to, and then ramp up again when you need to.
Going into strict quarantine allows people to get on top of the testing and contact tracing, so there's a known group of people with the disease and those people are isolated and can't pass it on. After that, new cases should be minimal enough that the lockdown can be called off and contact tracing can be done on new cases as they are found. If the cases go up too high, then go back into quarantine.
I think the government really wants to do level 3 and 4 on particular regions and cities, rather than the whole country.
Sounds sensible to me. But good luck making those calls! I wouldn't want to be the one calling when it's to be 'eased off'. The consequence of getting that bit wrong will be horrendous. As I suggest, Ramping It Up! is the easy bit.... and it's why, life for all of us as we knew it, has changed....there isn't really any 'Going back' now.
Nothing has to be any particular way. No one knows what will happen in advance. Situations arise; judgements are made in the light of information and possible consequences; policies are enacted and results materialise. It's all easy, looking back. Should we have locked the country down in 2009 when Swine Flu hit, just in case? 18,000 odd thousand died of that after all....Maybe we do get the 50 million dead after this. You tell me - what's it going to be?
Two days ago we didn't have any alert levels.
Now we have had 4 levels given to us and it would appear that politicians think we have been saved.
Truth is we don't need any alert levels,what we want is decisive action from those who are in charge.
Sitting in front of a camera trying to look Presidential won't cut it.
Smarts the word,quicks the action.
Must listen
https://youtu.be/tQD4B_hmdvo
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