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In Henry Thomson's Arizona home town, the easing of lockdown rules causes a minor stir, but most people seem genuinely respectful of the continuing need to take the virus threat seriously

In Henry Thomson's Arizona home town, the easing of lockdown rules causes a minor stir, but most people seem genuinely respectful of the continuing need to take the virus threat seriously

America is slowly emerging from the Covid-19 lockdown. But as restrictions on gatherings and businesses are lifted, divisions are opening between those who are most concerned about the direct health consequences of the virus and those who want to limit the economic damage of the stay-at-home orders. This is unsurprising: the United States is in an era of heightened political polarisation, and during a presidential election year no issue will be immune from partisan competition.

In Arizona, Governor Ducey allowed most retailers to re-open last week. This week, restaurants, hair salons and gyms can resume normal services, and even movie theaters can go back to business on Saturday – although Hollywood is not releasing any new blockbusters until July, and classic films like Back to the Future are being used to entice viewers into what now seem like ominously crowded spaces.

Not everyone is leaping to get back to work – one local pizza chain decided that opening their dining rooms is not worth the risk to employees and customers when their takeaway and delivery business is thriving. Other restaurants intend to reopen with limited seating, staff in masks and gloves, and menus sanitised after every use.

It is also not clear how many willing customers are out there. As I gratefully sat for a haircut at my local barber yesterday, the phone was ringing off the hook with people booking appointments. But a 93-year-old also in need of a trim nervously asked the proprietor to please wear a mask as he sat down in the chair next to me. Readers will be relieved to learn that the barber, whose black leather biker vest is covered in patches venerating the US military and 2nd Amendment, happily complied.

My elderly neighbour was right: It is clear that we have reason to be nervous, about both the virus and the economy.

There are extremists on both sides, of course, and they certainly make good copy for local journalists. A group of protesters – a small group, wearing masks and gloves and fastidiously maintaining adequate social distancing – demonstrated against the state’s re-opening in front of the state Capitol in downtown Phoenix on Tuesday. With one of their number dressed as the grim reaper, standing in front of an array of body bags symbolizing the dead victims of Covid-19, they asked Ducey to reconsider his decision to rescind his stay-at-home order.

At the other end of the spectrum, two café operators in the small town of Wickenburg, west of Phoenix, face potential legal action after opening for business last week in defiance of the Governor’s order. Along with several other retailers and café owners, they claim the rules violated their rights under the US Constitution and were worried they would not be able to pay their bills while shut down. The citizens of Wickenburg, named after a German prospector who discovered the richest gold mine in Arizona history nearby in 1863, seem supportive. Customers flocked to the establishments and rejected offers by staff to wear masks and restrict customer numbers as unnecessary. A former Marine traveled from northern Arizona to sit outside the Horseshoe Café all day Friday, to protect its owner from “potential threats.”

Arizona was recently in the national, and even international, news: President Trump made his first trip outside of Washington, DC for weeks to Phoenix last Tuesday. He toured a factory that has recently been repurposed from aerospace manufacturing – there is a relatively large defense industry in Arizona – to the production of respirator masks. He announced that his administration was releasing $600 million in federal aid to the Navajo nation, which is largely located in the northeast of our state and whose members have been shockingly afflicted by the pandemic. Their leaders hope to use the funds to respond to the current crisis, but also to address long-term needs around basic utilities and housing. I hope they are successful on both fronts.

Readers will be unsurprised to learn that Trump’s very brief visit – he was only in town for a few hours – laid bare the political divisions around government responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. The president was criticised by media for not wearing a mask in the factory, while a local print journalist was harassed by Trump supporters gathered outside for wearing one. But overall, compared to the president’s previous tub-thumping rallies here in Phoenix, the event passed relatively quietly.

The political fault lines over the Covid-19 response are beginning to crystallise and remind us that we have an election coming up in November. Honeywell’s respirator mask factory is not the only reason Trump’s first major trip since March was to Arizona. He has been a frequent visitor to our state since 2015 and won only narrowly by around three percentage points here in 2016. There is also a US Senate race kicking off that is one of the most competitive in the nation. For reasons I will have more than enough opportunity to discuss here between now and November, Arizona is an important battleground state in US national politics in 2020.

However, for now, Americans remain stuck in an unprecedented and uncertain situation, and our daily lives are dominated by the Covid-19 pandemic. At my university, the semester has ended without the usual prizegiving events and celebrations in the football and basketball stadiums. Instead, we had a virtual graduation (or convocation, as they call it here) with brief remarks uploaded by the university President to YouTube and students’ names displayed in a lengthy PowerPoint presentation.

Graduating Sun Devils are probably feeling more than a little let down, and it is hardly surprising that large groups of them let off some steam at a local bar as soon as the stay-at-home-order was lifted. Footage of the socialising students, who were not as fastidious in their social distancing on the rooftop patio as the grim reaper and co. in front of the state Capitol, was captured by a local TV news helicopter. As the country slowly returns to normal it seems that, perhaps, some things have not changed.


Henry Thomson is originally from Amberley, North Canterbury and is now an Assistant Professor of Political Economy at Arizona State University. His research focuses on the political economy of authoritarian rule and transitions to democracy. You can read more about his research here and follow him on Twitter @HenryRThomson. His earlier letters are here.

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17 Comments

Great letter.
HT to the master..
As always, the British especially shudder at the latest American vulgarity, and then they embrace it with enthusiasm two years later. AC.

Each state has a story.
We are following North Dakota, Colorado and then Michigan for contrast.

Colorado is good size 5.8m people, like Queensland 5.1m - NZ 4.8m.
Michigan is interesting as several police depts are resisting enforcing her extended stay at home orders.

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Yes, those three States are worth watching. There has been a noticeable pick-up in reported infection rates in each in the past few days. And add North Carolina and Virginia to your watch-list, also showing sharp up-ticks. Then many Southern states also seem to just be getting started (Alabama, Mississippi for example). Loose social standards/thinking are going to hurt for a long time yet.

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Which article of the Constitution refers to lockdown measures in a pandemic? Often I wonder of people have read and understood the constitutions text.

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It's all about interpretation, legal documents do not exist in a vacuum.

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Right to free assembly, freedom of movement, free speech (I.e. protest) and right to conduct lawful business.

All of which are violated by the lockdown as the law only provides for isolating sick people - not healthy ones who consent to the risk of going outside. Fundamental freedoms are just that - fundamental. Ultimately it will be up to the courts to decide whether the lockdowns were lawful.

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The Constitutional power of Government is derived from the Commerce Clause In this instance. The relevant legislation is Public Health Service Act, section 361. All this has been well challenged. The following case is regarded as setting the standard to challenge the a government quarantine order:
"The constitutional guarantees of life, liberty and property, of which a person cannot be deprived without due process of law, do not limit the exercise of the police power of the State to preserve the public health so long as that power is reasonably and fairly exercised and not abused. The legislative authority in this legitimate field of the police power, like as in other fields, is fenced about by constitutional limitations, and it cannot properly be exercised beyond such reasonable interferences with the liberty of action of individuals as are really necessary to preserve and protect the public health." - https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/cases/pp/moore_v_draper.htm

Unless you can somehow show that the government has been arbitrary and capricious in applying the law I don't think this would get far.

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Re "fundamental freedoms" - slavery wasn't abolished until nearly 100 years after these were declared. Women's suffrage didn't come for nearly 150. Those fundamental freedoms are contextual, often arbitrary, and subject to reinterpretation.

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Its rather funny how they quote an "Amendment", when saying the constitution is cast in stone and the be all and end all.

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I still don't understand how they are opening back up while the virus is still raging. It likely means that the lock down was pointless and they are admitting defeat, which will mean a huge wave of reinfection and deaths. I suppose this is OK they as long as their economy goes back to normal for a short time?

Unless I am wrong and they know all the clusters? There isn't any community transmissions outside of known clusters and contact tracing is so good they can isolate all those who contract the virus very quickly? Genuine questions...

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No-ones economy is going back to (the old) normal anytime soon. You could try to ignore the virus, and the smarter citizens will stay home, stay away from others and stop spending anyway. And all your trade partners are also shutting borders and factories. No 1st world economy is self-contained these days.

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Closing in on 90,000 reported deaths* I think it's fair to say US has been defeated by Coronavirus. As I understand it the US is projected to end up with circa 200,000 reported deaths at a herd immunity level if they can provide medical interventions when required. What we are seeing is only the argument about capitulation (or "opening up" as they prefer to call it), the decision to live with defeat noting the futility of struggling on when the Governments handling has been so inept. There won't be a half time feel-good comeback, what lies ahead is an ever increasing body count and years of living under the yoke of fear about the virus.

*Because of the way the US records data on deaths the final count, based on demographic data, may be far higher.

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And if you look at deaths per million population, Belgium has taken the second to top spot (San Marino being No.1).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

773 deaths for every million people.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

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I've been obsessed by that website since well before the lockdown.The death figures can be misleading. They reflect the age demographic but the main fact to note is the link between rest homes and deaths - Italy, Spain, UK, USA (NY) and I guess Belgium failed to protect theirs, in fact they seem to have imported Covid into them. Even in NZ most deaths relate to rest homes. Heaven thank the management of Radius, Ryman & Somerset.
There was an interesting report from the UK that the surge of deaths in rest homes was partly Covid but also deaths caused by hospitals not taking sick non-Covid elderly patients from rest homes.

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The death figures can be misleading. They reflect the age demographic

I'd been looking for the deaths by age breakdowns - do you have a link to that?

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demograph…

I've seen many articles about different countries. But these American figures can be applied to the demographics of individual countries.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/new-zealand/2019/ as an example

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Misleading: some countries only counted deaths in hospital. Some tried to count but were overwhelmed when their hospitals and rest homes were stressed. Some deaths can be attributed to hospitals not taking patients because they were stopping 'elective' surgery. I'm guessing GPs doing consultations over the phone will have some serious illnesses missed too. Then there would be any patient almost certain to die of an ailment in the next few days but if Covid was involved however slightly it is put down as a covid death. And that may vary by doctor, hospital and country. Even looking at 'unusual' mortality figures to estimate unrecorded Covid deaths is misleading - take a location with no covid but with social distancing imposed by fear from the media - reduced car accidents, increased suicide, less alcohol and other accidents, etc.
If you try to estimate infection instead of death you have difficulties too - the test was not perfect, many false negatives so NZ counted failed or no test but typical symtoms as Covid whereas other countries counted +ve tests only.
What this site does do is allow you to see how the epidemic is progressing - Belgium & France (1 son) is getting over it whereas UK not doing so well but I have read London has peaked as has NY in America.
All this and we still don't know much - will it return? Will it mutate and if so to milder or more dangerous variants? Nearly six months have passed and we still haven't decided whether masks work.

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Unfortunately there are lots of don't knows.
We do not know if infection is or will fall with warming of the season.
We do not know if virus infection peaks REGARDLESS of lockdown.
Lockdown has mostly been applied, to varying degrees, to prevent ICU over-run.
Lockdown has not been stated to be aimed at elimination.
USA states are "opening" before the virus hit its peak there. Virus only declining in prevalence in NY and NJ
USA is a big expanse and it is not surprising that the virus is taking a long time to make its way around.
Reality is however, that CV19 kills 1-2% of those it infects, and most of these people are over 65.
That needs to be reiterated often because the media seem to like drama and scaring folk.
Yes, the virus is deadly and dangerous , TO SOME. Yet 80-85% will only notice it (if they get it) as a 2 week period of flu like symptoms. It is not a plague. Those over stating and under stating its risk are doing no one else any favours and the public is not well served by its media.

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