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Coronavirus

Our national airline says it is 'leaning into the reality of a worsening revenue and cost environment'
22nd Feb 24, 9:34am
13
Our national airline says it is 'leaning into the reality of a worsening revenue and cost environment'
Our national airline announces profit guidance suggesting the second half of the current financial year is proving to be a very bumpy one
19th Feb 24, 11:49am
10
Our national airline announces profit guidance suggesting the second half of the current financial year is proving to be a very bumpy one
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
19th Feb 24, 8:05am
2
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
13th Feb 24, 3:35pm
20
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
4
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
5th Feb 24, 8:02am
4
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
'Overall, businesses expect the worst is past. Although the medicine has been bitter, it’s working'
31st Jan 24, 1:26pm
7
'Overall, businesses expect the worst is past. Although the medicine has been bitter, it’s working'
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
29th Jan 24, 8:30am
4
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
2
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
10
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
1
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows that inflation expectations have fallen but pricing intentions have risen; the post-election rise in business confidence has continued
19th Dec 23, 1:33pm
23
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows that inflation expectations have fallen but pricing intentions have risen; the post-election rise in business confidence has continued
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
5
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
16
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
Indications of likely future inflation continue to drift lower in the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey, but the new Government's honeymoon continues, with business confidence hitting its highest level since early 2015
30th Nov 23, 1:24pm
2
Indications of likely future inflation continue to drift lower in the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey, but the new Government's honeymoon continues, with business confidence hitting its highest level since early 2015
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
4
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
4
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
9th Nov 23, 9:07am
70
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
8th Nov 23, 3:51pm
31
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
31st Oct 23, 1:46pm
49
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
6
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
11
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
16th Oct 23, 8:37am
4
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors