Bernard Hickey looks ahead to the consequences of repeated failure to meet the growth targets assumed by Treasury. Your view?

Bernard Hickey looks ahead to the consequences of repeated failure to meet the growth targets assumed by Treasury. Your view?

By Bernard Hickey

Deja vu is a slightly discomforting and frustrating feeling.

It's difficult to put your finger exactly on what's wrong and what's new from a repeat.

But on Thursday afternoon sitting in the Budget lockup listening to Bill English I realised I was hearing essentially the same thing for the fourth year in a row.

This was where the discomfort and frustration kicked in.

I was hearing a politician repeat the same forecasts about a rebound in economic growth solving the government's problems.

Except, for the last four years, year after year, growth hasn't solved the government's problems because there hasn't been enough of it.

Treasury has, almost by routine, forecast GDP growth would bounce back to a 'normal level' of between 3-4% and would make the budget deficit and borrowing go away.

Yet every year since 2008 it hasn't.

Then a sickening feeling hit me and I think it's beginning to seep into the bones of consumers, businesses and ultimately voters.

It's different this time.

Maybe our economy, and the global economy, will never get back to 'normal'. Maybe economic growth is going to stay slower for much longer in the same way that interest rates are staying lower for much longer.

That's the conclusion of some fresh research out in the month on the long term effect on economic growth of financial crises in a world of high public debt.

US economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, the author of the widely acclaimed book 'This time is different', published a fresh paper looking at economic growth and debt figures since the early 1800s. It found that growth in countries with public debt over 90% of GDP tended to be around 1% lower than normal for an average of 23 years - that's not a misprint - 23 years.

The implication is profoundly sobering.

Most European countries, Japan and America now have public debt levels well above that 90% threshold. Add in company, household and bank debt and that debt load on the developed economy is crushing.

This goes some way to explain why the global economy has time and again failed to bounce back with any resilience or robustness since the 2008 crisis. The European and American economies are now going back into what appears to be double or triple dip recessions.

Even China is stumbling towards slower growth.

Something is broken and it still hasn't really sunk through into the economic models and thinking of bureaucrats and politicians in the developed world. They are still forecasting their economies will bounce back to pre-2008 averages.

These policy makers are like the Energiser bunnies. They keep bouncing up and down on the spot, hoping to move, but just going around in circles.

It's understandable. Accepting growth will be lower for decades rather than just a few quarters is deeply scary.

It means assets have to be revalued vastly lower. It means assumptions about paying for pensions and healthcare have to be completely reworked. It means tough decisions have to be made.

The cost of those asset revaluations have to be borne by certain groups of people. Bank shareholders tend to get hit first. Shareholders and pensioners get hammered.

Sometimes taxpayers are hit when banks are bailed out. Eventually taxpayers have to accept a shift lower or, at least, a reshuffling of their standards of living.

Europe is now living through this great reckoning: a realisation of lower growth for longer and a battle over who pays the price.

I wonder how long before the Energiser bunnies at our Treasury stop bouncing and the politicians stop repeating the same prescriptions expecting a different result.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Quite a few commentators on interest.co.nz have been stating this message for quite a long time.  It's patently obvious to any rational person that the NZ economy has been propped up for far too long by debt.  Now the lenders (banks) are getting nervous and worried that these debts  may not be paid back.  However the current NZ Gov't thinks it can overcome this problem by borrowing even more money.  I have no doubt that they can kick this can down the road for a while longer but eventually it's going to hit a wall.  It seems we are all Grecian now!

'Rational' is also a temperament but are a minority within the population.  The trouble on these forums (and in NZ in general) is that other personality types without the critical thinking ability that is a hallmark of a rational, have too much to say and what they say is of little value.

yes, nothing new in the idea that we are in the new normal
as you say some of us have been harping on about it for the last 3-4 years
Our leaders and key economists are either not very smart, or liers
No other option
I'd really like to know if the Nats have a Plan B, for when growth doesn't return to "normal"
Would be nice if interest.co.nz could put that question to the nats

"Our leaders and key economists are either not very smart, or liars"
 
They are both!

Not at all. Our leaders are very smart... when it comes to staying in office. That is their goal, and they are succeeding at it. What, you thought they had the good of our country at heart?

Many of our leaders don’t remember, when making statements.
 
….and the “J. Bank’s case” takes a long time to be decided –  producing not transperant, but thick “Chopper Paper” - I guess.

I suspect Plan B is sell more assets

Plan C probably involves the theft by the state of all freehold property to create a super covered bond pool...to enable the brains in the Beehive to borrow even more....haha

"Labour finance spokesman David Parker said there needed to be honesty about the age of eligibility of superannuation.".....but not inside the Labour caucus.....9 years and was there any effort made to adjust the age....no.....what does that make David Parker!

Lets not forget their position now on capital gains tax........

...... we're already of the opinion that our illusionary leaders in Wellywood are a bunch of parliamentary oafs .....

The only real growth that we have had in NZ for the last twenty years has been in crime.
 

And benefit claimants!

Not correct ngakonui gold...my gut has expanded by a good twenty cm....burp.

The new norm where my job is cut. (The govt finally reinstate finance they took away in 08 to R&D etc, but let's cut ICT & other tech teachers from intermediate schools. Makes no sense).
John Key's 'low inches rates' not a big help to the newly unemployed.

 activist Byron Clark said
''We need housing for more than just the high priority cases. When someone is on a benefit paying half their income to a private landlord, welfare money is becoming a return on someone's investment property, and that's not how the welfare system should work. We need social housing for anyone receiving welfare, and also the huge number of people working reduced hours for low wages.''
 
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/6996831/Group-calls-on-Brownlee-to-address-housing
Byron has it right in that the welfare system is propping up the landlord bloats...rentals could be slashed and property values too if only.......if only we had people in the Beehive who had the guts to take it to the bank bosses....to remove the accommodation supplement (landlords benefit) that helps to hold rental property values in the bubble clouds...but if Gerry is into being a landlord, we should expect the same for all the others parked in the Beehive....
So Byron is left to wonder why is was that Labour bothered not to do a sodding thing about the landlord benefit...does he not know that the Labour leadership was also into landlording?

I have a mate who owns a large appliance business. Luckily for him his debt levels are low as the last three and a half years have been hard trading wise. Like many retailers he has not been replacing staff as they leave yet  he is still making losses. He says this is the new norm and will be here for many more years. when someone as experienced as him talks like this you have to sit up and listen. it must be tough for his competition who are holding high levels of debt such as NL and alike. Somehow the country needs to up retail spending to keep it all going as retails employs so many people and supports other businesses such as printers,carriers and couriers. I hope things improve soon for all our sakes.

100% correct. Refer to my own 40 year business experience below. We were 'lucky'. We did not put-it-on-the-house (holiday, car & boat) and saved for our retirement. Built a new small home that runs off the sun and a stream. Retired. Locked up the factory.

New Zealanders need houses, the majority of appliances are bought for the home, with most heading ovewrseas for a new home in Australia, they will buy their appliances over in Oz ,less luggage to take...

Why do you think it will improve?
Where is the buying power going to come from?
Its time to get VERY real about this....
We have a veggie garden, am putting BACK IN a wood furnace soon and am saving some cash to put in some solar panels (photo electric).
 

The past middle class NORMAL has since the time of Roger Douglas been maintained by increased household debt (dished out by 'salesmen' posing as bank managers). Do you remember the bank advertisement - "We are the YES Bank"?
Inflation adjusted wages remained largely flat lined.
The prime-time TV adverts stated / encouraged - Put-it-on-the-house mortgage! The boat, the car or the overseas trip - all consumption items. Quait. Gone! Laughable!
We are now faced with interesting times. The items that you really need have esculating asking prices = inflation. The assets that you own and consider selling are falling in value = deflation. This will be interesting! A wild ride ahead.
Because our business customers can no longer 'Put-it-on-the-house mortgage' - they now have to exist with a fixed income whilst paying the interest on the boat (sunk), car (rusted out) and holiday (forgotten). Too many former middle class now emulate the poor  with regard to their 2012 purchasing power. Check out a similar scene under many Japanese bridges, train stations and parks. 
Within the current parliament there are few 'elected reprentatives' who would have a clue as to the state of the middle class consuming (customer) class. Here is a rare quango example http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6995337/Undercover-boss-slams-workers-conditions
For New Zealand to create more jobs we need to be manufacturing more of what we consume. More factories. I own a fully operational factory that for almost 40 years manufactured a product range of interest to the middle class. It is now locked up. After once being the biggest operation of its type in the Southern Hemisphere - with about 20% of output exported - it is now staffed by spiders.
Our Foreign Exchange trading mystro PM ( stacked gambler) with his sheep farmer sidekick have no idea - simply because they dont need to have an idea. They talk about how low the Government debt is. Whilst also warning about the high level of private debt. But - hang on a minute - who received the 12.5% GST of the construction of all those subdivisions and leaking McMansions. WHOOSH >>>>> 12.5% of that foriegn sourced 'private' debt went straight down the crown consumption vortex.  
Every five minutes in NZ another proud middle class family loses their grip - their knuckles give way - and they start looking for a nice cardboard box to install under a nice dry bridge.
Everywhere there is a lack of 2012 middle class customers - when compared to the old normal. As there is no general acceptance of that simple fact - there is nothing in the last 25 budgets to stimulate the true middle class spending power (without borrowing) - the vortex effect is now in full effect - down the plughole.
We are over governed at every level. For example the Environmental Risk Management Agency (ERMA) should have been closed down with zero effect to anyone but the overpaid staff. How many people know that these fools were intent on forcing all people handling class 3 flammable goods to have an "Approved Handlers Certificate). Three weeks at Polytech at huge cost. Then it all went quiet. Very quiet. These drongos had it pointed out to them - the petrol at your local BP station is class 3.  How to fuel the rusted 323? ERMA should be wound up alongside all other similar regulatory bully dreamers.
Bye Bye broad based middle class. Unless you form a SAVE THE MIDDLE CLASS union and demand better very soon. I need you as a customer!
The above describes the NZ situation. Add Europe and the USA to the pot - and Greece fails - Rabo Bank struggles - overgeared cow farmers asked to repay at the same time milk goes out of fashion. Whatever - it is all in the very best of hands. But please do not ever forget.
I NEED YOU AS A CUSTOMER
 
 

Re the leaking McMansions - I read in North &South magazine that leaking RESIDENTIAL buildings (so excluding commercial bldgs, schools & hospitals etc) have cost MORE to the NZ taxpayer than the Christchurch earthquakes. Does anyone have more info on the figures?

12 Billion I think was one figure being thrown about a year to two back, but some commentators believed it was double this figure.

in effect the middle classes of the west have been strip mined/farmed/fleeced/shorn and their wealth exhausted, left with a tailings mountain of debt. I think the idea is to then seek out new middle classes (india, china?) for further extraction......location is unimportant in the global farming of the middle class...hahahahaha

So adept...he is Balancing his own budget.....but not the countries.
 
Well put. The words "Economic" and "Treason" come to mind.

"Civil serpent". I haven't heard that one before, what a classic

I post about the Rational Temperament at the top of the thread. Interesting thing is that most comedians are ENTP's and this type comes under the rational umbrella. So I suspect that Sore Loser is amongst the 'rationals'.

Stands T-reason....
 
For some reason cabinet collective responsibility and capital punishment both come to mind.

Yeah , I recall when Bernard used to get shitty with SoreLoser for writing with the CAPS-LOCK on , all the time ......
 
...... Hickey reckons that's capital punishment ...
 
I reckon he's  restricting a true artiste in full flight ..... GO SORE LOSER , GO YOU GOOD THING , LET RIP !

BURNHARD'S plan is plane ..... to fly to Unfair Fax , in a mega-mighty deal .
TradeMe for the mother load .... the lode !
Not two FACED in his BOOK ... sow unFair , when the seeds don't grow ...
Sue would you , be a boy named Sue , if your FACE went up , in the profit BOOK ...
... rather be a Sore Loser ....'cos. they plummeted , faster than  GREG LOUGANIS ..
KLUNK , PLOP ........ bugger , me fag's all wet .

really liked the Civil Serpent line,

Bernard, You say,
"The cost of those asset revaluations have to be borne by certain groups of people. Bank shareholders tend to get hit first. Shareholders and pensioners get hammered."
There is an easier solution, in my opinion (accepting that in our current parlous national and global state, no solution is perfect by any means). This solution I believe the US, UK, Japan, Switzerland in particular are trying to enact. Europe is stuffing it up, because while the solution would solve their collective problem, it would involve a transfer of wealth from Germany to the Southern states, and so the Germans are saying no.
The solution is to print away government debt; and thereby also inflate away private debt. Doing so will at least hold asset values at current levels, meaning the forced bankruptcies, liquidations, pension revaluations do not have to happen, among many other upsides. An added benefit would be a currency devalution, assuming NZ was to embark on the policy. This devaluation would make it much more competitive for NZ to add value to its own economy- so giving the growth you are after, at least relative to what otherwise would be. Our exporters, manufacturers and tourism industry- domestic and inbound international- would all benefit. The extra value add would by definition be shared around, albeit as with everything, with some winners and losers, but mainly winners. No more need for firesale asset sales. The current account would be dramatically improved. For the dilemma you write of; this solution is easily the best of bad choices. Am not sure why we are resisting copying all these other countries.
 

I should note that you would start with say $10 billion of printing away government debt, and see the effect. The UK has printed away NZ$650 billion and inflation has edged up to approximately 5%. A manageable outcome.

Am not sure why we are resisting copying all these other countries.
 
Perhaps because of how "well" it is working for all those other countries?

A reasonable challenge. The question then is what would have happened in the US, the UK, Japan and others without the programmes. Japan I note didn't realy embark on printing until recently. And they had two lost decaeds before that. In the UK's case it would either have had to suck $650 billion out of the economy through very deep Greek like austerity, or to have borrowed the money off other countries, giving up both sovereignty of ownership, and giving them a much more highly valued pound and much higher interest rates, which in turn would have killed off many UK industries. (The NZ solution in other words)
The amount printed in their case is equivalent to approximately 23% of their annual GDP, so would be similar to us printing approximately $50 billion. 
Perhaps a better question for me to ask would have been at least why are we not having a decent debate. To suggest Ben Bernanke of the Fed, and Mervyn King of the BOE are idiots, and Bollard and our guys know better seems both arrogant, and in my opinion logically wrong. 
Go with the result Bernard describes if you wish, or Greece's, (which is the same thing) but its not pretty. Work through the alternatives. I have not seen a better one than that I am advocating. 

You problem is that any money you print under the current system has interest attached, interest that is mathematically not repayable. That is your first crisis.
 
Your second crisis is that the interest is a payment that is deferred the the future and must come from an increase in production over what it is currently in order to service that debt. That is where you run into the wall that is resources.
 
History shows that those in control will milk it for all it is worth until it collapses, which is why your assertion that Bernanke, King and Bollard have an interest in setting things right is off the mark. They are trapped in a system that expects certain outcomes, growth being one of them. While the general populace continues to place their faith in those outcomes as well, then nothing will change. For instance 73% of our debt is against residential property, with an expectation that property will always go up in value. Can't fight that the mass psychology of that one I am afraid, the illusion will be kept up until it is broken.

Scarfie,
You may actually know the process better then I; but if say our Reserve Bank prints money and loans it to the government; and even charges interest, it is really the government loaning money to itself. So not loans at all. If the loans are out to the private sector banks, then real interest can be charged- rather than paying the Swiss, or Japanese, or Chinese.
My understanding is that both the US and British governments have booked very significant profits from this interest arbitrage, although this should not be the reason to do it.
The risk of overshooting when they need to turn it off is a valid one; and so needs some clear trigger points that would do so. E.g. inflation > 5%; asset inflation > 5%. (remember that even after $1.9 trillion of US new money, their house prices are now only stopping falling).  Maybe a trigger of economic growth > say 2%. 
If I have the process wrong, by all means explain that, and why it matters.
 

I think it depends on what the government would do with the loans. At the moment (all?) money that enters circulation is fractionally reserved, whereas if they were spent directly by government that would be close to the 'public credit 'scenario advocated by some. The issue as pointed out by Wolly is that such a system is still 'Fiat', and thus in the long term still open to manipulation.
 
I think the real trouble with what you propose is the BIS, who really pull the strings but are accountable to no one. That combined with out trade deficit and position as a net debtor. I would say any internal manipulation of the currency would result in devaluation pretty quickly, or invasion:-P
 
To be honest I am not your man for the detail on this, I just know that what we do have is as crooked as hell. You may have noticed that I occassionally call out those that use the crooked system to their advantage, ie: Property Investors:-P I also steer clear of presuming to know what is the 'right' answer to the problem. That to me is one hell of a responsibility to take on.

Stephen L, be very careful debating monetary policy with scarfie!  Despite being very well behaved tonight he is notoriously irrational and illogical in his arguments.
 
It's best to leave the social creditors to squabble amongst themselves!
 
By the way, printing money to repay debt is the ultimate solution to government indebtedness.  It will happen eventually as will asset price inflation.  Austerity or deflation are not politically acceptable solutions.

Hey Chris_J : If we're in for asset price inflation , do you accept Jim Rogers view that commodities are the place to be ?

Ahh the resident troll. Don't worry about Chris, he just doesn't like attention being called to his anti-social behaviour.
 
You are not a 'rational' Chris and as a consequence the concept is quite foreign to you(and your cronies). Never mind their might be a place for you somewhere, but crawl back into your hole for now.

Why do we continue to put up with this guy? Such a sad loser who can't even comprehend the very concept he craves to accumulate. 

I always find it amusing when he mentions his net worth. Such a poor little boy. I thought they taught them better manners down in deans country. Standards are obviously slipping on the mainland

That's a bit uncalled for Justice and moa man.  Especially making the comment when I wasn't looking!  I am very polite to people who don't start their comments with a tirade of personal abuse!
 
I only mention my net worth (which is nothing exceptional) to counter comments poo-pooing property investment.  I find it interesting that no one here ever attests to having become wealthy investing in stocks, fixed interest or cash!
 
I do not ever intend to pander to the money is evil brigade, who seem to straight out hate my sharp shooting candor!

The following is an extract from the Telegraph of London, printed today with a headline "What if Britain had joined the Euro?" Seems relevant to the debate.
"The counter factual can never be proved one way or the other, but if the UK had joined the euro it is highly likely that it would have had an even bigger boom in the lead up to the crisis. The bust would have been correspondingly bigger as well, and in dire need of both devaluation and the printing presses of a sovereign central bank, the UK would by now have quit the single currency and in the process brought the whole enterprise to its knees."
This is from Jeremy Warner, a respected economist/journalist, in a paper that is not intuitively supportive of money printing.
Their description of bigger boom describes NZ pretty well. We've avoided the bust by massive overseas borrowing (as a country, not only a government), and some good fortune with commodity prices, which we all know are heading south fast.

We've avoided the bust by massive overseas borrowing (as a country, not only a government), and some good fortune with commodity prices, which we all know are heading south fast.
 
Avoided, or delayed (with compounding interest)?

Delayed. My poorly worded point exactly.

If it is not "working well" for those other countries... then why aren't we lab ratting them
 
To some extent I already am (at the moment with respect to LGAs) and have been since 2006. But it is not easy - you are challenging all of culture, politics and economics and that is usually most unwelcome. Developing understanding is one thing but being able to communicate it clearly is another.
 
You also have to go back a lot further in your analysis than you suggest. You can't just start from an assumption that you know what money is because you don't. If instead you go through the exercise of designing something to work as 'money' you quickly realise that what we currently have is not fit for the multiple expectations we have of 'money', and no single thing can meet all those expectations.

I've had a life time interest in numismatics, but I stopped collecting coins decades ago. My collection, which will pass to my son, is a fascinating picture of the death of fiat currencies and what once passed for value. I never collected gold but mostly concentrated on tradesmens tokens and coins of small and ultra small denomination, eg eights of a farthing etc. Nothing lasts forever and there is no point imo in "building bigger barns"  Fertile land is a good intergenerational asset - but a land tax could scupper that, buildings are usually a constant drain on income. We have to live within our means.

"I work for a Government I despise for ends I think criminal."--JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1917)

Just where is the inflation? when its 2% core and getting smaller it suggests they will get the opposite.
regards
 

...... have you noticed , as you get older , that deja vu isn't what it used to be ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgBywHgfQf8
 

Déjà Vu

 

Déjà Vu- Les Barker
A Cardi and Bloke- © Mrs Ackroyd, 1995

“Déjà Vu:” A Rhyme.
It is impossible to experience
déjà vu for the first time.
I reckon, the first time déjà vu happens,
is the second.

“Déjà Vu:” A Rhyme.
It is impossible to experience
déjà vu for the first time.
I reckon, the first time déjà vu happens,
is the second.

I started with verse two.
Verse one will stay and listen,
because the first time you say "déjà vu,"
it isn't.

But then again, to get a little more immersed,
you can't experience déjà vu twice,
because you didn't experience it first.
It's a recap.

“Déjà Vu:” A Rhyme.
I know what you're thinking,
this is not the first time.

Three times and still it isn't true.
How do you qualify?
What do you have to do?

How do you climb this mountain?
Or you may think it just a hillock.
You may think this man is a philosopher.
All together, you may think this man is a pillock.

I've been called a pillock before,
strange but true.
When I hear the word "pillock,"to me,
its déjà vu. A rhyme.

It is impossible to experience
déjà vu for the first time.
I reckon, the first time déjà vu happens,
is the second.

Then again, and this is interesting,
there are those who say déjà vu is
a once in a lifetime thing.
Then they say it again.

And at the risk of being a bore,
if you go back to the first time
déjà vu happened, you'll think,
"That's happened before!"

We should explore the supernatural,
put knowledge in place of mere feeling.
And in the university as a chair for the paranormal,
you can't get it down off the ceiling.

Too many gaps in our understanding.
Is time travel a thing of the past?
What was the best thing before sliced bread?
How long does this poem last?
Are black pool hallucinations real?

But to return us to an old friend,
“Déjà Vu:” The End.

So, what do the luminaries think of Steve Keen's ideas then?  Listened to him on Kim Hill Saturday Morning and couldn't find too much wrong with what he was saying.

Yes..err well no...he did leave out a tiny wee matter...all well and good to explain what can be done....what should be done...but what about who can get it done!...it's a similar argument to wanting NZ rid of the electoral benefit pork slicing disease and a move toward a society all into positive work attitude and great parenting along with an end to envy....I did listen to what he had to say...faultless presentation..no arm or ums...like shaking a bottle of sparkly and pulling the cork..it all came out....accept for the ways and means,,,that stayed in the bottle.

The solution though is political if he's to remain credible I think its best he steers clear of any creed/dogma........he's done a great job of laying out the problem......now its for the ppl we elected to fix it.........so in other words we're screwed....
regards

But if the States had bailed out the general populace, instead of the banks directly, would that not have had the net effect of saving the banks and reducing their power over the economy? I realise it's a moot point, since what happened was that the US govt shot its load for no net benefit, except to temporarily shore up the banks' balance sheets. But what if they had, Wolly.  Would that have worked?

Personally I think he's the closest thing we have to an economist who's right.  One of the biggest things I like is he avoids politics. So what you get to see is what is probably occuring / will occur without the tinted specticles of dogma.....he's probably equally hated by both sides.......
regards

The 'new normal' is the 'old normal'.  We just forgot the basics for a few decades.  Countries and individuals who have done well, forever, are the ones who have consumed less than they produced.  Or only what they produced.  There is talk of increased 'productivity' but that is expressed very vaguely.
We need to be frugal.  Plain and simple.
Just one example of many --  is the small communities who are being rated out of existence.  Because some 23 year old analyst in Wellington wrote the rules about how to run the water supply scheme.   Actually we can't afford it.  Standards will have to lower.
Another is todays furore over caregiver wages.  Gotta bite the bullet however.  We have to reduce costs across the country in all sectores and that will mean we do with less.  Sad and true.  But we gotta do it.    

Hypertiger
 
Posted Yesterday, 06:41 PM

The long term...or logical conclusion of the take more than you give equation...Is always collapse.

constant inflation is impossible to sustain...Inflation greater than previous inflation to maximum potential is always followed by inflation less than previous inflation to maximum potential.

Collapse follows expansion....and expansion follows collapse.

Basically when you choose to take more than you give in order to sustain your existance...you are just setting yourself for a fall.

When you share equally you are not.

We are in this mess because of the choice to take more than we give in order to set ourselves up for a fall.

If you choose to take more than you give...You are inevitably doomed to arrive at the logical conclusion of that choice...and the logical conclusion is teh same every time.

there is nothing you all can do to to avoid arrival at the logical conclusion of the take more than you give equation except postpone arrival at the logical conclusion for as long as possible.

Unfortunately the more power you supply to the demand for expansion...the greater the potential collapse becomes...until you reach the point where you can no longer supply the demand for power...

The maximum potential of inflation greater than previous inflation...

The roaring 6 decades is coming to an end and will be followed by the greatest economic collapse in all recorded history.

sorry.

"For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still."--JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1930)

The post WW2 global trade system that is currently collapsing to oblivion.

"Then a sickening feeling hit me and I think it's beginning to seep into the bones of consumers, businesses and ultimately voters."
 
I really hope you were joking Bernard. You............. surely knew the truth about the monetary system they are trying to save?
It will not work . It's over and it's best you start telling all who will listen the truth particularly on those media shows you go on. Start with that plonker Jim Mora