By Sheryl Sutherland*
“Once a boom is well started, it cannot be arrested. It can only be collapsed.” ~John Kenneth Galbraith
I have been watching the various dramas around crypto currencies with much interest, it has all the hallmarks of a bubble. Given that I thought it might be instructive to look at some history – history always provides the best lessons as its predicted on our actions.
Optimism skews our beliefs and judgements. Optimistic people are a pleasure to be near but what happens when optimism becomes rampant and the market displays irrational exuberance? (Look for the book of the same name).
The French say everything changes, everything stays the same – that adage could also be expressed as whatever changes, people stay the same. Rampant optimism or irrational exuberance lead to market bubbles. Market bubbles are a fusion of millions of investors’ emotional responses, mostly greed. Market bubbles are not a recent phenomenon, nor are they uncommon.
The Black Tulip is about one of the most impressive market bubbles that occurred in Holland in the 1630s. And, yes, the commodity so highly sought after was the tulip bulb. Over a five year period tulip mania inflated bulb prices to the point where one bulb was worth 10 times a yoke of oxen, around US$100,000. Then, the story goes, an out-of-town sailor inadvertently popped the bubble as, mistaking a valuable bulb for an onion, he ate it. Panic erupted (herding behaviour) and within a week the bulbs were almost worthless.
If you think you would be tempted by rampant financial optimism consider a self-binding scheme. The classic tale is that of Ulysses who ordered his men to tie him to the mast of his ship so the Sirens’ song did not lure him to his destruction. This clearly illustrates a freely chosen hedge against his weakness of will.
Consider this: Living in a new era…has ushered in a new type of economy. Those who stick to the old ways will be left behind. Traditional company valuation techniques do not capture the value of this revolution. If you lived in 1850 you would have said the railroad, in the 1920s the radio, in the early 1990s you might have said biotechnology. In each case, this rationalisation accompanied a great bull market and proceeded a great decline.
Spot the bubble: The 1929 market crash and the dot-com bubble in 2000 were very similar. And both bubbles crashed spectacularly eroding shareholder wealth. In both cases the market was:
- Driven to new highs.
- Supported by margin trading.
- Overconfident after a long bull run.
- Characterised by talk of ‘a new era’.
- Promoted by “celebrities”.
Ask yourself this: By what logic could anyone believe that internet companies are worth anything like the ludicrous sums the market has attached to them?
Here are the words of Jim Cramer, television pundit and sometime hedge-fund manager. He is quoted here by the editor of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter as saying:
The only way to catch up is to join the crowd…they are buying Google (Alphabet) because, what the heck, when the markets up buy Google… there simply aren’t enough training days left to make a lot of money… the clock is ticking…’Darn it all, I gotta get in’
Media influence anyone? No cool rational thinking here, or any comment on such old-fashioned concepts as value. Foolhardy investors will regret their enthusiasm quickly. Take the low road, the boring sensible one and create a well-diversified portfolio.
*Sheryl Sutherland is director of The Financial Strategies Group, and author of Girls Just Want to Have Fund$ – Every Women’s Guide to Financial Independence, Money, Money, Money Ain’t it Funny – How to Wire your Brain for Wealth, and co-author of Smart Money – How to structure your New Zealand business or investments and pay less tax. You can contact her here.
44 Comments
I guess that depends. Arguably the only asset class that I can see that has not been described as a bubble is gold. But based on what you are saying, the price of gold can only go up if a 'greater fool' comes along. The whole finance industry is based on the 'greater fool' theory - younger people will pay higher prices for the older generations' equities, houses, etc.
Gold has been in plenty of bubbles. A non-yielding useless piece of metal. Silver Thursday 1980, was a classic as gold imploded and suckers lost fortunes. And again in 2012. Gold salesmen dupe people into believing it's 'money' and must increase in value as the USD implodes, but it's all BS.
And again in 2012. Gold salesmen dupe people into believing it's 'money' and must increase in value as the USD implodes, but it's all BS.
I don't think you understand gold very well. Gold is definitely money. Just not in your world, but it's a big world out there. And the idea of gold increasing in value through the fiat prism is unspectacular. That is why it's not described as 'being in a bubble.'
I understand gold perfectly, and it's definitely not 'money'. Money is something you buy and sell things with, got any in your pocket when you go to the supermarket?
Gold can be traded in dozens of different ways, it can be bought or shorted on any number of gold ETF's, the days of owning a 'stack' are definitely over, but it still has its fans for some reason. A useless piece of metal which has no dividend. Gold salesmen like Peter Schiff still prey on gullible goldbugs predicting the demise of the USD, stock market crashes and all manner of economic mayhem which never happen.
I have been watching the various dramas around crypto currencies with much interest, it has all the hallmarks of a bubble. Given that I thought it might be instructive to look at some history – history always provides the best lessons as its predicted on our actions.
How does someone who claims to be watching 'cryptocurrencies' and then refer to it in the singular? Does Sutherland believe that "it" all moves in tandem? Well it does to some extent and that is why some of those deeper in the game follow what is known as 'Bitcoin dominance' - a metric that measures how much of the total value of all cryptocurrencies is made up of Bitcoin.
Sutherland then goes on the suggest the market has "all the hallmarks of a bubble." But which market is she referring to? And what time frame? It's generally common knowledge that Bitcoin and the "crypto" market (the non-BTC mkt has only really existed since 2016) has "crashed" numerous times as much as 90%+ (depending on what you're looking at) since 2011.
If Sutherland believes what she is saying and that "history is the best lesson", then it suggests we should probably expect another bull run in cryptocurrencies sometime in the next few years.
It is easy to do, see above:
OK. Would you lump commodities into a single basket? You might. I wouldn't.
And there's little point listening to people who don't understand fundamental differences between BTC and crypto, let along the differences among cryptocurrencies themselves. The mere suggestion that someone thinks "they're all the same" is a sign they don't know what they're talking about.
Why is it that Crypto supporters sound like its a religion?
Different Crypto is different but also similar in that they have failed to deliver a real and valuable use case for the technology after 14 years of searching.
I was once excited but after so many years looks like little more than a speculative asset.
As no value is created by crypto. Every person who makes a real dollar in crypto, its a dollar taken from another person.
Lol. Pretty much all you say of crypto can be applied to trad fi in some way. Blockchain tech has numerous advantages and use cases that have been suppressed and denied chances to succeed by who? The status quo... But eventually, as we are seeing, they will implement it and become the heroes
Take the low road, the boring sensible one and create a well-diversified portfolio.
Dreadful advice. This comment - well easy to agree with - suggests that investing is the same in 2023 for the younger generations as it has been for the boomers since post-WWII. This shows a complete lack of understanding of where we are at.
To be fair you still get mocked for only having TD's on here. For some reason people cannot work out if you have a decent TD that means you have money to spare to be able to invest it in the first place. Current rates are at 6% now and probably will be for a couple of years.
It hasn't outperformed dividend-yielding stock markets or property long term, it's a flash-in-the-pan, pushed by gold salesmen like Peter Schiff.
Schiff said years ago gold was going to US20,000, he predicted (along with many other gold salesmen) a colossal crash and a plunging near worthless USD. In addition gold can be traded in dozens of different ways, unlike years ago when you really had buy the real thing. These days you can buy it or short it on any number of listed entities at minimum cost.
Sure. And that makes sense given it's a period of the greatest fiat monetary expansion, low-interest rate environ in history.
But you can always point to pivotal moments that suggest that gold outperforms other asset classes. For ex, March 2020.
XAUNZD - +27%
NZ50 - +18%
Therefore your argument is moot.
Gold is one of the worst bets out there - the AXGD, the Aussie gold mining index is down 36% from its peak a couple of years ago, the GDX gold mining index in the USA is down 41% since late 2020.
Money printing its here to stay, the USA's been doing lots of it, but nowhere near as much as other countries like Japan and the EU....so where's the hyperinflation goldbugs are always banging on about?
The USD's on the way up, which means gold's on the way down.
Housing is a much better bet, you can live in it or rent it, everyone needs it, no one needs gold bars.
Any discussion of gold as an investment should mention that it is managed by the central banks (via the COMEX futures markets). Some suggest holding the physical metal as a financial insurance policy in case the central bankers ever lose control of the fiat based monetary system. That’s why the central banks hold it - in case they need to reset the financial system.
" We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The U.S. Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K." -- Eddie George, Governor Bank of England, in a conversation with the CEO of Lonmin, September 1999
It is interesting to see what the central banks have been doing.
Global central banks purchased 1,136 tons of gold in 2022, driving the demand for the yellow metal to the highest mark since 2011. The figure, which represents the most central banks bought in 55 years, is 152% higher than the 450 tons they bought in 2021.
Capitalism doesn't work if everyone's rich. They dangle the carrot but in reality only a very small percentage will ever make it. There's that hope that it will be you that will keep you going and not question the narrative.
That's why the establishment felt threatened by assets like "crypto" - too many young people made too much, too soon. And the finance industry doesn't understand it. Bitter pill to swallow.
A more recent and relevant example would be to examine and study how house prices in NZ rose to such high price levels.
Some core beliefs that underpinned the price rise to peak in November 2021:
These are some reasons given in the mainstream media, property market commentators, property market promoters, bank lending promoters masking as bank economists, real estate agents, property market mentors & other sources as to why property prices in Auckland will not fall by much and that there is a low probability that property prices will fall dramatically:
1) during the GFC, house prices in Auckland fell only 7-10%
2) over the past 50 years, house prices in Auckland have averaged 7.2% per annum (or commonly referred to as house prices doubling every 10 years). This trend can be expected to continue into the future - https://youtu.be/Agp9xFWoBX4?t=172
3) there is a shortage of underlying housing in Auckland, so property prices won't fall by much - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/97513/auckland-councils-chief-econo…
4) there is a growing population which means that there will be more demand for houses - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but…
5) we have inward immigration which means more demand for houses
6) Auckland is an attractive city with an attractive lifestyle - that makes it desirable and attracts foreigners to move to Auckland and hence raise the demand for houses
7) we mustn't forget either the vested interests in ongoing stability. No government, central bank or trading bank with mortgage exposure wants materially lower house prices. Nor does an incumbent Beehive want falling house prices going into an election campaign https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110499233/think-house-prices-are-going…
8) the economy is doing well, with low unemployment - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110499233/think-house-prices-are-going…
9) there has been insufficient construction of new builds to meet the housing shortage - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but…
10) there are high construction costs to building a house. House prices cannot fall below their construction cost. - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but…
11) people don't sell their houses at a loss - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but…
12) continued inflation means that house prices will continue to rise in the future
13) The fact is, debt levels have barely changed from the beginning to the end of those 10 years, compared to GDP levels, compared to household assets, compared to household disposable incomes. And much more importantly, debt servicing is very much easier now, an item that is almost universally overlooked. We are not pushing out to unsustainable levels now, and even if they creep up a little, we are far from that point. https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/95894/if-you-think-new-zealands-hous…
14) in aggregate household debt servicing is low in New Zealand - currently at just under 8% of disposable income of households - https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-household-debt
15) property market participants & commentators who have been correct in their predictions about recent property price trends have more credibility and hence their predictions of upward prices are believed by a wider audience (such as Ashley Church, Tony Alexander, Ron Hoy Fong, Matthew Gilligan, etc). - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-aucklan…
16) previous warnings about a house price crash have been wrong - property prices have continued rising upward significantly since these warnings were given, so there is little reason to believe these warnings.(such as Bernard Hickey) - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-aucklan…
17) its unlikely Auckland prices collapse. I think the main two reasons though are: a) Affordability has been this bad, and worse, in the past and it only resulted in about a 10% drop. b) The number of homes built over the last decade has been too low and will take some time to recover
18) Not a single person who bought 10 years ago has ever regretted buying / have you met anyone who has bought a house and regretted buying it?
What were property commentators saying at or just after the peak?
1) Tony Alexander - 19 reasons why there's no crash - December 2021
https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/delivery/DeliveryManagerServlet?dps_…
2) Catherine Masters - July 2022
Why the New Zealand housing market is nowhere near crash point
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/why-the-new-zealand-housing-market-is-no…
3) Ashley Church - April 2022
Four reasons the housing market won't crash
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ashley-church-four-reasons-the-housing-m…
4) Kelvin Davidson - Dec 2021
“But will prices actually fall? I’m not convinced because in the past a serious housing downturn has come with a recession, but no one is suggesting that and unemployment is low at 3.4 per cent.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127305870/what-lie…
5) Nov 2021 - Here's why it might be fruitless to pin your hopes on a house price crash
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300449314/heres-why-it-might-be-fruitl…
I know those pitiful phrases .......now the worst advice:
"Housing doubles every 10 years"
"Best time to buy was yesterday."
"Best time to buy is today"
"You will never regret buying a house"
Most who purchased in the last 5 years, who banked on massive or even some capital gains will be sorely disappointed, some financially tragic stories are filtering out.
Many took the fallacious Property Ponzi Spruikers poisoned bait.
Once the hook of massive Debt Enslavement was set, they are taken, hook, line and sinker!
#DebtPrisonLife# begins. Sentence term: "The rest of your best years".
The confidence in the property market has tanked the most in history in NZ, the confidence of future gains is gone burger, for a long. long time.
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