2025 was a year when interest rates kept on falling as policy makers strove to normalise their balance sheets. Inflation was claimed to under control - except it was a mirage. Inflation got new impetus from some crazy US actions and that reverberated around the world. Equity markets drank the Trump Cool-aid, and bond markets sipped it for a while, But as the year has ended the bond market decided the addiction wasn't going to healthy. Yields have started to rise, all preceded by an unseemly dash for precious metals in the hope they might provide some value protection. Certainly, crypto couldn't supply any.
Juicing all this financial market fear is a 79 year old grifter in full retribution mode, essentially an autocrat with an alcoholic personality.
The problem for 2026 is it might all get worse. Just because 2025 didn't end in tears is no protection that 2026 wont. And financial markets are getting the sense that US inflation and the US budget deficit will get very much worse at the same time, ushering in a serious bout of global stagflation.
New Zealand might look like it is coming out of its 2025 recession, but social pressures have bult up. An unstable global situation is unlikely to be helpful in getting the benefits of 'growth' more broadly shared.
And there will be climate stress. That too will cause local impacts. Would you invest in petrol stations?, buy on a flood plain? or near coastal lowlands? If you do, will you expect society to bail you out if things go pear-shaped? Should insurers be required to cover those risks and spread the costs over everyone else? Should banks lend when those risks seem obvious?
Will we tolerate un-priced risk any more? Can we resist the socialising of losses? We may have to when public budgets are in growing deficit. The HYFEU pushed out the deficit track as fast as time is elapsing.
On top of all this, it's election year in 2026. One of the most interesting developments of 2025 was that one major party indicated it would bring in a capital gains tax - and almost no-one objected. It probably helps that there are no capital gains in the current residential housing market, so that blunts the NIMBY impulses
Anyway, there is a lot to talk about.
How do you think our economy (housing, agriculture, tourism, education, to name the key sectors in decreasing size) will fare in 2026?
And don't forget those climate predictions. Pretend you are an insurer (or a lender).
Who will be the winners in 2026? The losers?
It is time to test your prediction skills and bravely record them here in the Comment stream below. (Sign up here.)
And of course there is the small matter of bragging rights on your 2025 predictions. How good were they? Here is a quick link to last year's set. More than 200 of you weighed in again last year. More than 15,000 readers watched that particular debate.
This article is to encourage you to record your 2026 predictions.
Your predictions can be on any topic that has an impact on the New Zealand economy: anything, including property, interest rates, exchange rates, the RBNZ (is the new governor a Willis-patsy, or has genuine inflation-fighting skills?), insurance, rural issues, the dairy payout, our migration issues, our relationship with China, the big international economic influences, even the shifting international power balance, and the like. But please try to ground them in the economy. (For example fashion, sporting or celebrity comments are not relevant, but climate change issues certainly are.)
You will need to be logged in to comment and respect our commenting policies (and respond to others' differing views in a respectful and civil way).
Grab a wine or a beer. Settle in. Over to you.
49 Comments
Can we make election predictions?
Seems to be yes.
I think most people are sick of the main parties. If new parties like TOP can get a good election strategy then they could do very well. Think Peter Dunne (Mr. Sensible) and United ? Party.
I think economy will limp along until at least after the election. There won't be a kick start in early 2026 and the election will be enough reason for capital to stay on the sideline. "In '27 we're going to heaven" is the next catch phrase.
Peace won't break out and the existing hotspots will smoulder along. Plus maybe a Venezuela added in for good measure.
China will talk a lot about Taiwan but won't do anything kinetic. Taiwan will continue to develop and stockpile marine and air drones making invasion even less likely.
England will progress to the knock out round of the World Cup and then implode. Have a feeling it's Brazil's year. Olé!
"In '27 we're going to heaven" is the next catch phrase.
Does that mean the economy will completely kark it this year before we ascend to the pearly gates?
It allows for plausible deniability, so politicians will like it
TOP will not meet 5%
zero chance, not even tail risk
Hence anyone who thinks there will be any change from 50 years of lowering productivity even if the government changes next year are simply dreaming.
Not simply that top won't make it but that blue or red will cause that's all the stupid electorate want.
P.S. 5% threshold is totally disenfranchising
Seperate electorate seats based on racist selection with zero threshold are "totally disenfranchising".
"One of the most interesting developments of 2025 was that one major party indicated it would bring in a capital gains tax - and almost no-one objected. "
Ignoring the objections of NZs Coalition govt currently enjoying a representative voting majority in recent polls. The rest of us were ROFL at the promise of 3 doctors visits for everyone, irrespective of income & health & availability of doctors.
Some 2026 thoughts (directions rather than predictions)
Gold USD $10000 / oz
Trump loses the House in the mid terms
Ukraine loses the war (concedes already lost territories).
RBNZ governor achieves inflation target.
NZ property prices flat in NI, up 5% in SI
Coalition re elected, thanks to NZF & Labours unlikeable bedfellows in Greens and MP.
Winston announces political retirement & is knighted during next parliamentary term.
Ukraine will cough up territory and Putin will take a breather but aerial skirmishing will continue, virtually unabated. Meanwhile China, in view of some not denied speculation of gaining control of Taiwan by 2027 will ramp up the pressure by way of escalating blockades. Some degree of justification will be offered by way of Trump’s precedent vis a vis Venezuela and all of that will have some emboldenment from the fact that Russia has had in its adventure, very little to worry about with concern to Trump.
My holiday reading includes Erik Larsons "The splendid & the vile" a comprehensive yet readable review of Churchill in 1939-41.
The lessons of history are easily forgotten.
I recommend "Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931-1945"
Explains the conflict in global terms as more about the battle of Empires, similar to WW1
The accuracy of my financial forecasting is on par with most economists.
So a grain of salt required.
Swing in international economic relationships away from USA centric.
Blue collar NZ continues to pay economic price of delayed monetary loosening. Employers use opportunity to 'right size' workforce.
Agriculture earnings return to long term averages, especially dairy. Fonterra suppliers live off capital repayment as payout and costs close gap.
House prices remain stationary as more first home buyers can afford to buy is matched by disillusioned 'ma and pa' investors with 1-3 rentals unloading.
Purchasers only now realizing low point in interest rate cycle already been and gone.
Two main supermarket groups continue to dominate as no serious new competition in a market too small for many.
Election - the first one in forever that doesn't feature Winston centre stage. National and Labour are at par. The decider will be between the level of support for the Greens on the left and support for ACT on the right.
Predictions of a year ago:
by Yvil | 30th Dec 24, 3:45pm
Two points from me;
1) I think most of us, myself included, underestimate the very long lag between the rising interest rates and their effect on the economy. Therefore, sadly, I still see more hurt in the NZ economy (businesses, unemployment, housing etc…) for 2025.
2) I just can't see how Trump's tariffs will be anything but disastrous for both the USA and other countries. Trump's isolationist policies will be bad for the entire world but this will not play out by the end of 2025, it will be very apparent by the end of Trump's term, if he makes it to a full term.
For 2026 I see more of the same, but worse volatility worldwide.
You can't have "a long lag" on interest rate reductions forever. How long is long? Christmas retail sales suggest this is going to be the longest lag in human history.
GDP was up 1.1% last quarter.
Yeah, from -1.1% the previous quarter. If the most recent quarter represents an economic recovery, as many are claiming it does, what does the previous quarter represent?
I predict that in 2026 all economic and market forecasts will be driven by self interest and preservation, emotional gratification, and groupthink. Doesn't matter if you're a bank economist or member of a water cooler. I will remain in the contrarian / maverick camp and state that all I know is that I don't know (Socratic Method is all we can rely on these days).
Where I'm a bit more strident is that I 'reckon' QE is coming back - in disguise, designed to quietly inject liquidity and fund US govt deficits. This means the Fed balance sheet and system liquidity will expand even if the media and Fed pretend otherwise. This should be bullish for scarce assets (rat poison, gold, high‑quality DeFi) as fiat continues to be debased.
Also, I think things are looking good for the US housing mkt, but I'm less confident on the Aotearoa and Aussie mkts. Lower 10-year yields help US households take out home equity loans to fund greater consumption. And mortgage rates will decline, which helps housing affordability. Trump is very vocal about his belief that mortgage rates are too high, and if he can deliver on this, it will help the Team Red Republicans stay in power.
An easy prediction.....Putin will not accept any proposal re Ukraine that is acceptable to Ukraine/EU.
Quick score on last years forecasts before I have some 2026 reckons.
Unemployment will get into the mid 5s and prove sticky and the number of people unemployed will climb from 150,000 now to around 190,000. Correct ✅
Social: NZ First will make mischief with immigration as jobs are increasingly and visibly occupied by immigrants. This will build through 2026 towards the election. Correct ✅
OCR / NZD: We're heading down below 3% by end-2025, note likely currency devaluation. Correct ✅
Govt Spending: Govt have fenced themselves into a corner with their stupid 'low Govt debt / must reach surplus' nonsense. We will get expensive private finance deals to build loads of roads for boomers to use in the holidays. It will be 2026 before we see any real stimulus from these projects although the planning/design side of construction will get some welcome relief. Meanwhile Govt debt will continue to go *up* by more than expected as it always does when Govt try and cut into a recession. Correct ✅
Housing market: I think there is enough latent demand in the housing market for the RBNZ forecast (7% growth) to be about right. Wrong ❌
We're heading down below 3% by end-2025, note likely currency devaluation. Correct.
Like how you describe that as likely currency devaluation, which I believe it to be - price of debt < lower than monetary expansion + price level.
Others would say "but NZDUSD is up 4% yoy" and think that somehow the purchasing power of the Aotearoa peso has increased.
I think the data supports the hypothesis that currency values vary with relative gdp - like shares in the country so to speak.
I think the data supports the hypothesis that currency values vary with relative gdp - like shares in the country so to speak.
Fair enough. That would suggest that Aussie has been a better economy to have bet on in my sample set below of YTD NZD currency crosses.
NZDUSD: +3.45%
NZDAUD: -4.37%
NZDJPY: +2.91%
Obviously record-high commodity prices - gold, silver and copper - have been positive for AUD. Impact on the Aussie economy, I don't know.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XZ000:0-au…
NZ First will make mischief with immigration as jobs are increasingly and visibly occupied by immigrants. This will build through 2026 towards the election.
So they should. One of the unspoken reasons for immigration is to suppress labor costs. The ruling elite needs to be transparent about this.
On that note, I reckon people will increasingly appreciate the value of skilled tradies as a desirable career path for all, particularly Gen Z and Alpha.
Happy that two nephews are doing trade apprenticeships in Melbourne - one as part of a semi-pro contract through a cricket club and the other through his network after graduating with a degree.
“One of the unspoken reasons for immigration is to suppress labor costs” - Labour ran high immigration while significantly increasing minimum wage. In fact even under National the minimum wage has increased significantly.
There is two big reasons for immigration:
1: reduce average age of population
2: quickest way to increase GDP (while ignoring the per capita part)
If you don't understand the relationship increasing migration and downward labor cost pressure, this might help. Increasing immigration can put downward pressure on some workers’ wages and labour costs, even if it is concentrated in specific segments (e.g. low‑wage or earlier migrant cohorts). It can also strengthen employer monopsony power when migrants have fewer outside options, enabling firms to hold wages below productivity, which “suppresses” labour costs relative to what a competitive market would pay. [https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-ma…]
In standard economic models, an inflow of workers shifts the labour supply curve right, which lowers the market wage and raises employment, all else equal.
Maybe the skilled migrants. But the unskilled are surely on minimum wage, and that has increased rapidly.
I'm not financially literate, but read and listen a bit. Those who talk sense to me include Paul Krugman and Mohamed El-Erian, plus for NZ Cameron Bagrie.
Krugman I reckon, for likely good reasons tries to keep sunny side up but even he is picking near term reduced growth and higher inflation in the USA.
El-Erian in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBP833jz2NQ is very good at summarizing big picture forces, the current position, trends and possible outcomes but avoids prediction. He avoids politics entirely.
By chance search I watched commentator Edward Dowd in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvvQaL0GkIA who I found in this interview on the level, straight up and rational with facts and analysis to back up what he said, which should make everyone nervous.
Slower economic growth, Increasing debt, large share market declines and QE to follow in NZ and internationally is my pick for 2026, the charge down lead by the USA.
For NZ even more loss of social cohesion, inequality and declining educational and employment opportunities for the disadvantaged in 2026 with a steadily worsening trajectory to a decade out likely transformation of life as we know it - see https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-war…
The NZ farmers likely think they have made wins in provoking NZ govt policy change but they can't avoid global warming and their actions are self sabotage. No doubt they and regional governments will beg for charity from the public purse following easily possible droughts and/or atmospheric river flood events in 2026 with the increased heat forecast -see https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasona…
By chance search I watched commentator Edward Dowd
Someone I respect before but recently Dowd's opinions feel more unhinged, particularly about Covid being unleashed to control the boomer population. Dowd has authored a book commonly referred to under the title “Cause Unknown,” which focuses on unexplained or sudden deaths among younger cohorts in the post‑2020 period, positioning these as a central societal risk.
A very robust thinker.
"It's about the economy, Stupid" Yes but....It's about the effect of the economy on the population. So...
GDP per person continues to fall
Wage increases are less than inflation
Food prices rise faster the overall inflation
House prices will remain flat in most areas
Imported inflation will rise against a falling NZD
Interest rates will start to creep up
The exodus of the skilled will continue
The election will be a cliff hanger
That feels about right. Strong potential stagflation scenario for 2026. A continuing exodus of Kiwis to Oz pre-supposes rising unemployment and ongoing job destruction in the NZ economy.
Yes. All of that destroying tax revenue for the govt now towing and extra $100b, and election bribes yet to be made.
If the Colition of stupidity and little math gets it's hands back on the steering wheel, the exodus of high value tax payers westward will accelerate. But it's OK...the 501s selling meth can form the new tax base.
Juicing the economy with low ocr and mass immigration just to further push up over priced housing is not the solution. Unless you are a banker....laughing all the way to the bank.
What will the economic growth rate be under this scenario. Scary to think.
Okay forecasts for 2026...
No change to OCR. Put it away.
Unemployment to wobble around the low 5s and employment rate in the 66-67% range.
Benefit numbers (main working age benefit recipients) continue to increase year on year for the whole of the year as we slide sideways.
Business operating profits pickup in early 2026 and wages and earnings continue to increase at around 3% (2% lower earners) - the surplus that makes this possible will come from increased mortgage lending and Govt deficit spend.
Govt deficits will continue to come in higher than expected and the mythical surplus date will be pushed out and out as Govt and the ghouls miserably fail to understand the reality of sectoral balances, and that Govt spending (and bank lending) create the money to pay taxes.
GDP will go up, but whatever, it's only really measuring the pace at which the NZ private and public balance sheet expands.
House prices will nudge up in time for the election making the result close. I think the blue lot will win another term before being kicked out as they continue to invest in roads while local water rates go through the roof, libraries and pools start to close, and people notice that we are falling quickly behind the rest of the world.
Another good call and very rare to read an acknowledgement of the real money creation process. Govt spending and bank lending creates the money that pays taxes.
That’s not true at all. There are plenty of countries that have low government spending and high GDP, and vice versa. Government spending is one (temporary) way to increase economic activity, it’s far from the only one.
Domestic surplus as measured crudely by gdp is basically Govt deficit spend + net bank lending - current account deficit. So, as you say, it is not the level of spending that's important for economic activty (that just determines the share of real resources under Govt direction), it is how the Govt money is spent, and how much of the spend is taxed back (and how quickly).
For example, if Govt bought a billion barrels of oil and set it on fire, they would create $100bn of gdp activity, which would be cancelled out by the $100bn added to the current account deficit. The only economic benefit would be the profits for any domestic intermediary.
- Realisation that 3% + inflation is not transitory.
- NZF the kingmaker - current lot get another term.
- Global equity bull rally continues on the back of AI productivity gains (and promises).
- NZ Economy gains real momentum - uplift in things like migration, GDP, employment.
- Housing HPI low but steady growth, capped by election uncertainty and inflation.
- Geopolitics volatility + fiscal debt: bullish for PMs
Gas shortages get worse forcing more businesses to shut down
Labour will have to swallow the pay equity rat to have a chance, yum yum
Agree. Although a lot of those extra wages ends up back with the government in PAYE, GST, reduced WFF, etc, so it doesn’t cost anything like what the right has been saying.
We have to have pay equity, but getting to it needs to follow the data, not the ideology.
It was a near perfect example of how poorly our regulations are thought out - and then drafted - before being implemented.
Broadly: it's going to be bumpy.
Specifically
Our per capita productivity will continue to fall from the ongoing lack of government, public sector, and industry interest and talent.
If the National government is re-elected, the Abundance Agenda will become a much more visible thing. The entrenched groups affected by the necessary regulatory and organisational evolution will (expensively) fight tooth and nail to protect their sclerotic, self-perpetuating fiefdoms at the expense of our national well being.
Should a Labour government be elected, there's a 50/50 chance the useful idea of a capital gains tax on investment property will be subverted into mind-altering complexity by the agendas of their internal special interest groups and coalition partners.
Charitiable trusts will continue their largely unexamined growth here, with the large commercial enterprises involved enjoying the tax and other advantages that entails. Meanwhile the management and administration cadres that run said commercial organisations, whose purpose is ostensibly to return profits to their stake holders and clients, will continue to be enriched. This growth will reduce effective tax take as the sector continues to grow as a proportion of the economy. NB This is absolutely *not* to impugne the vital work done by so many genuine charitable social enterprises.
The AI markets will slow and gradually deflate rather than collapse, as people realise that it's useful, but not the panacea described on the tin. Money will be lost, but relatively slowly, painfully, and embarrassingly rather than in a market apocalypse.
Iran will continue to sponsor and direct extra-national organisations like Hamas and Houthi rebels. In response to US military action and other pressures on Iran, those groups may be induced to attack oil infrastructure, driving prices up.
Stagflation in the US will move from being a shibboleth to actuality as their economy and markets are further damaged by the sheer washing machine randomness of the raw id doing the driving, and we all wear the consequences.
China will become ever more the owner of Russian assets (mainly raw materials) as it props up a basket case Russian economy being bled dry by the war on Ukraine. The economic upshot is that China will gain further control over strategic materials.
China will continue to sniff around Taiwan, but won't invade - yet. That will be held back until things like slowing real growth and the demographic issues there become bad enough to require a distracting war that stimulates the economy.
That uncertainty will also make other countries continue to re-shore their semiconductor production, thus depressing the Taiwanese economy while driving up the price we pay for semiconductor products, including the devices underpinning AI.
Arms expenditure will continue to grow, diverting resources away from productive endeavors - and no one will be able to figure out how make it stop as it's turning in to a spiral of escalation in an increasingly uncertain world, and the peace dividend we've had since the 1990s goes away even more.
The UN's relevance will continue to degrade as the US becomes yet more overtly hostile to the funding that goes to them. That erosionof a credible international forum to resolve disputes will fuel even more market uncertainty.
Luckily Trump is goneburgers in a few years. The two term limit can suck (eg Obama) but it does have its upsides.
It is only Trump that is keeping the lid on the whole damn shooting box the Republican Party represents. Those internal individual ambitions are as plentiful as they are divisive and you can expect some breaking in the ranks especially in the lead up to the mid terms.Should the Republicans then lose either the Senate or Congress or both, expect Trump to bulldoze over both by way of unprecedented use of executive orders many of which will not be legally founded. But that don’t matter as Trump has immunity across the board for any action.
The bad thing i think will happen this year is an insurance shock.
what like a big earthquake?
I was pondering this when I bought St Pieres sushi the other day. Almost $2 a piece now. Maybe $0.20 for the ingredients per piece, their biggest cost is probably rent. Hard to see how property prices could increase much more
1.The usual positivity grifters (read bank economists, bank CEOs) will continue to make outlandish economic growth predictions and then blame oil refineries or Tiwai Point if they wildly miss the mark.
2. The government will add supermarket workers to the critical skills shortage list so they can allow 100k net people into the country to pump the property market as they hit panic mode 6 months out from the election.
3. Renters and middle class home owners will continue to limit discretionary spending because they don't have the means to make it happen.
4. For the 35th year in a row our productivity will fall and the refusal of this country to take action will continue.
You forgot add with #4 that voters will continue the willful ignorance and vote to continue inaction.
A couple of ideas about what may or may not happen
- the fear of future rates pressure on older Auckland householders will keep the upper North Island real estate halo effect going as people continue to relocate to cheaper provincial areas to make their retirement savings go further.
- 'investors' will rotate out of crypto into real estate as the world becomes a more uncertain place and people seek to turn their gains into less volatile assets.
- In the US there will be plenty of surface drama as Trump swings wildly but in reality it will be a nothingburger year for their economy as the wealthy continue to do well, 90 per cent of the population struggle to stay in place and none of the real problems facing that nation are solved.
- In NZ the coalition will continue with their own low drama, do nothing approach to everything and as a result will barely scape in in the next election. People like me will make a choice between the useless govt we have now and the possibility of the return of the previous malign outfit and decide that useless is better than really awful.
- the NZ economy will perk up a bit but be self sabotaged by conservative inflation fears. A black swan event may occur towards the end of the year that will result in a dramatic spike in real estate prices.
- the Ukraine war will grind on but Russia and Iran will become increasingly fragile and their structures may not hold. Russia will probably be held together with Trump's enabling and Iran may be held together in response to further premature attacks by Israel.
I tried to make a prediction but the website encountered an unexpected error and wiped it.
It's there, Northern. There seems to be a bug in the system that comes up as an error after you save your comment but it posts anyway.
Broadly - one word - PROCARITY - where the working classes and lower income cohorts of the Western World exist in an increasingly fragile emotional mindset of worrying constantly about the affordability of life's essentials and even their ability to keep a roof over their heads.
Specifically...
#1 The year that both NATO and the EU begin fragmentation and a major breakup.
#2 The dawning of the realisation that the 55-year-old fiat casino financial system didn't work, the demise of the entire system, and a return to hard-backed sound money is long overdue - gold and silver markets will continue to amplify this inevitability.
#3 De-dollarisation will accelerate, spurred on immensely by the Trump administration's bungling idiocy, and the realisation that individual countries need to reinvent their reserve portfolios.
#4 NZ will bumble on into their debt trap, and choose the least awful do-nothing coalition for another three years of shocking growth, as our country becomes progressively less entrepreneurial and financialised. We will continue to pay the global private banking cartels billions of dollars to create the money supply that we could create ourselves as public credit, where those billions are used to provide liquidity for our productive economy and to repair and improve our infrastructure.
#5 Trump will lose both houses in the midterms, and the GOP will realise that if they wish to survive with any credibility, they will have to put the skids under him. Of course, the two clowns in waiting won't be much better.
#6 The BRICS will continue to grow, helped immensely, once again by Captain Chao$, and there will be a gradual realisation that the world no longer wants OR NEEDS a national currency that doubles as an overwhelming reserve currency.
#7 The BRICS will be in no hurry to implement their UNIT (a 40% gold- backed, and 60% currency-basket-backed financial instrument, for settling out trade balances). The vast majority of their trade will be conducted in goods-for-goods deals and settled in their own currencies = even more rampant de-dollarisation.
#8 The Western paper markets will completely lose their ability to price gold and silver, and an Eastern-based supply and demand physical price discovery system will rule. This will further highlight the death of the fiat system.
Hopefully, something positive can emerge from the trainwreck that the West has created. This is not a failure of capitalism, because it was never capitalism anyway.
It was a kleptocratic form of extreme reverse socialism that was guaranteed to fail the moment the Fed was illegally, and blatantly unconstitutionally, incorporated back in 1913. It has taken over a century... but it will happen, as sure as night follows day.
Season's greetings to all
Col
I agre with #4.
Yogi Berri may have said that predictions are difficult, particularly of the future. I have very little faith in my ability to predict anything but I have one this year.
When Jerome Powell retires in May, he will be replaced by a Trump appointee and the pressure for lower interest rates will intensify. My prediction is that this will happen during the year despite inflationary pressures and this will see currencies including ours, rise against the Dollar. At the same time, longer term US interest rates will rise making their ever increasing debt yet more expensive to service.
Worked in 2024, might as well give it another run.
Global greening will continue; Sorry Al - the Arctic ice won't disappear again; we will have record cereal crops again plus record oil, coal and natural gas consumption and production. Air pollution will continue to fall. Price of Uranium will go up. NZ will continue to be a carbon sink to the tune of ~40 million tonne/annum.
Chicken Littles will continue to wring hands and lecture people in the comments threat.
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/air-pollution?uniformYAxis=0&count…
profile,
Yes, Arctic sea ice is retreating, following a decades-long downward trend in both its extent and volume.
Recent 2025 and 2026 data confirm that the retreat is ongoing, despite short-term fluctuations caused by natural weather patterns:
- Long-Term Decline: Arctic sea ice has decreased at a rate of approximately 12% to 13% per decade since satellite records began in 1979.
- Recent Records (2025):
- In March 2025, the Arctic reached its lowest winter maximum ever recorded, at just 14.33 million square kilometers.
- In September 2025, the summer minimum extent was among the lowest in recorded history, ranking as either the seventh or tenth lowest depending on the specific measurement used.
Given I got it right last year, I'll stick with the same, only I can now add the words "even worse" before the word hell;
by Kate | 3rd Jan 25, 10:14pm
Only one from me for 2025:
The US goes to hell in a handbasket.
Happy New Year to everyone at interest.co.nz!
repeat.
Two events this year that will have major political and economic repercussions over many years:
(1) Trump will "win" the US mid-term elections through illegal measures. The unacceptable alternative will be losing the House to the Democrats.
(2) Putin will fail to win peace with Ukraine on his (and Russian hawks') terms and will no longer lead Russia by December 2026.
Exactly what the repercussions of the above will be, I don't know. There will be more instability but it won't all happen in 2026. It'll be like when the Berlin Wall fell and it took years for the consequences of that to play out.
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