Barfoot & Thompson's May Auckland sales volumes at their lowest level in nine years but prices steady

Barfoot & Thompson's May Auckland sales volumes at their lowest level in nine years but prices steady

Barfoot & Thompson sold 821 residential properties last month, down 20% compared to May last year and the lowest number of sales the agency has recorded for the month of May since 2010.

However while sales volumes were well down, prices held steady.

Barfoot's average selling price in May was $928,992, slightly higher than $928,330 in April . The median selling price was $850,000 in May, up $20,000 from April's median of $830,000.

Barfoot & Thompson is the largest real estate agency in Auckland by a substantial margin and both its average and median selling prices have remained within a fairly narrow band for the last two years, suggesting very little movement in Auckland prices over that period.

However the low level of sales suggests the Auckland market is fragile heading into winter.

The number of new listings the agency received in May was down 18.5% compared to May last year, suggesting sales activity is likely to remain subdued.

However buyers will still have plenty of choice with Barfoot's residential inventory - the total number of homes it had available for sale at the end of May - down just 5.5% compared to inventory at the end of May last year.

There was little change in the price mix of properties sold, except that the number of homes selling for $2 million-plus accounted for 6.4% of sales in May compared to 11.1% in May last year.

"What is clear is that the Auckland market has come through the concerns created by the now abandoned Capital Gains Tax and sales are settling at current levels in a robust fashion," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

"While there are no signs of a price retreat, nor are there signs of prices rising.

"It is a situation likely to remain until Spring," he said.

Barfoot Auckland

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125 Comments

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24
up

"Prices steady" but massive survivorship bias in these numbers.

Sales volumes are so low now and the number of pulled listings is very high (even for May).

Barfoot had 4,684 properties on their books at the end of April.
They had 1,186 listings and 821 sales in May.
But now they have 4,319 properties on their books at the end of May.

That implies 730 listings were pulled in the month.
That's not far off the volume of sales for the month! (89% of sales volume).

i.e. 4,684 opening + 1,186 new - 821 sales = 5,049 properties. The number they aren't reporting is pulled listings.
4,684 opening + 1,186 new - 821 sales - 730 pulled = 4,319 properties at May

Prices steady.....

What’s new? Yawn.

TTP

26
up

If 1 house sold for $850k and 1,000 listings were pulled you'd still be like "Prices steady, move on people".

On a like for like basis, prices are not steady. QV and stratified indices show that they are declining.

It's just that people with $XX can now buy a better house.

It's amazing the mental gymnastics you need to go through to avoid admitting that prices in Auckland are falling.

The HPI, widely considered the most accurate measure, shows Auckland prices are NOT holding steady. Down 4% YoY is not a crash, but claiming that this constitutes "holding steady" makes you look either dishonest or ignorant.

Buyers negotiate!

13
up

Its tanking (no matter what the sprukers say) and its only going to get worse, sell now if your carrying unsustainable debt or 'like a frog in boiling water' spend years in negative equity and hope one isn't forced to sell.

20
up

Yes I agreed with you. Taking a note form my own experiences during the Financial Crisis in the UK, it took two years for a declining property market to crash, basically fall below -20% from its peak price. Which we know the current peak for NZ was in late 2017 and, Oz and Canada, when China finally managed to turned off their money tap (Clamped down on Capital Flight). What people don't realize is that life goes on and lots unsold property builds up (Stagnation stage), and that leads to people having to either accept lower prices or rent out their property which saturates the rental market, that then leads to rental price declines. Either way if there is no outside influence to artificially inflate the market through money laundering, then our property market needs to fall to affordable and economic stable levels.

The NZ housing market did NOT crash 20% after the GFC, this is just wrong information. The market declined 8% from the peak. It's not right to make up stuff CJ

You are both wrong.
It was ~12% drop peak to trough on a quality adjusted basis. Probably around 13-14% when adjusting for loss aversion.

.

You are.
I wasn't going to bother finding the paper that I was thinking of regarding that figure. Good thing I did, though - we were both wrong! (You more wrong, though).

Housing markets around the world were affected significantly by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Real house prices in New Zealand fell by 15.3% (between 2007Q2 and 2011Q2), and remained 9.5% below their peak in 2012Q4.

https://motu.nz/assets/Documents/our-work/urban-and-regional/housing/13-...

Why look for data on other sites when the data is on this page? Do you not trust Interest.co.nz data? Just look at the graph at the end of the article above, select price growth you and scroll back until before 2006 (or as far as you like. The absolute low is -9.07% so I guess I admit I was slightly wrong. Still it's not min -20% as CJ claims

12
up

You are seriously suggesting that we use Barfoot's data as the baseline?
Average/median data from a single real estate agency...

No, Yvil. That is just plain retarded to suggest that we use that over quality and income adjusted price level estimates.

You were wrong. Admit it and move on.

Greg Ninness, could we please have a NZ house price chart collated by Interest.co.nz to settle this, thank you, much obliged

Use this:
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/house-price-index-reinz-rbnz2

The drop was 11.4% [edited - corrected the %]

Mic drop.

Booom! :)

Thanks cmat, I stand corrected -11.4% from top at 30 Nov 07 to bottom at 31 Jan 09. (my -8.4% was in 12 months but I admit I was wrong)

Yvil, noting an -11.4% adjustment in 14-months just goes to show you how fast house prices can fall. In the next downturn, with the absence of precious Chinese capital, who's our White Knight? With monetary stimulus now largely impotent and capital gains gone, Speculords are mere lambs to the slaughter once rents give way post elevated joblessness and departing (disillusioned) migrant workers. The price of greed still lies in front of us all.

Interestingly, using that same data, Auckland dropped 14.6% over 16 months (July 07 - Nov 08).

cmat, seems the more time that passes, the more Spruikers are discovering just how out of their depth they really are. It's hard to practice sound foresight if you haven't done your research on history's lessons on the price of greed. Those property seminars have a lot to answer for don't they?

Yeah, I've heard some terrible stories about those seminars - e.g. encouraging people to harass Banks to give them huge credit card limits and then use those credit cards to finance renovations.... because it's interest free for a period.... until it's not. Then it's 20%!

I've actually complained to the FMA about them a couple of times - unfortunately they fall outside their jurisdiction aside from limited instances - it's not right. You can't sell a single stock to someone without a mountain of regulations but any mug can entice someone into the most debt they will ever come across in their life.

What's interesting is everyone says we dodged a bullet in the GFC.
If people lost 10-15% of the value in their property now, with the absolute level of debt some people are carrying, there will be some serious wailing.
I just worry about FHBs who are enticed into this now.

...its certainly a suckers market for FHB's. I cringe at the thought that many are gaining entry by plundering their Kiwisavers and taking on 30-year mortgages. Right now its better to rent and sit on a sizable term deposit for peace of mind security than to seek it by way of home ownership at today's prices. It's a sure pathway to disillusionment.

That's exactly what we have done :)
Sold up, did well. Signed up to a 12 month rental and sitting comfortably.

The ability to raid KiwiSaver is pure madness.
Totally undermines Superannuation, and for what? It doesn't help anyone, it just goes straight to propping up price.

The ability to raid KiwiSaver is pure madness.
Totally undermines Superannuation, and for what? It doesn't help anyone, it just goes straight to propping up price.

Speaks to the priorities of the lawmakers of the time, unfortunately.

Nymad, you've been confused by Yvil's ramblings. I was not referring to NZ property market falling by 20% during the GFC. I was referring to the UK and my experiences there during that time which did fall by -20% (Since then I moved to NZ). Both NZ and Australia didn't feel the effects of the Global Finical Crisis due to being supported by China's economy being part of Asia. We're now experiencing a new property correction due to several reasons but mostly due to the gab between allowing lots of overseas money to flow in to NZ and now that money has gone, and pushing out wage earners in Auckland. I'm sure you can recognize that is what has been happening.

10
up

Read it again. He said the UK numpty

A mate must have been lucky then. Bought a place on the Shore in 2009 for $280,000, $60,000 below its then CV. I would say that prices in Auckland are down between 10-20% from their peak. You can talk it up all you like, but the market is very slow, and will likely get worse for a number of factors -- the end of negative gearing, and the cyclical exodus of young professionals to more vibrant economies among them. Buy a nice place at a fair price and enjoy it for what it is without worrying too much about the dollars. Diversified share portfolios are a better bet, and they don't ring you at midnight saying the toilet's leaking.

...also what do you mean by
"during the Financial Crisis, it took two years for a declining property market to crash, basically fall below -20% from its peak price. Which we know was in late 2017 for NZ, Oz and Canada"
The GFC occurred in 2008, the NZ house market declined 8% from its peak, 2008 to 2017 is 9 years, not 2… during which values increased over 50%,

CJ, it's wrong to invent figures out of thin air and write fake posts to suit your imagination

Where are you getting your data from?

cmat, data from the graph supplied by Interest.co.nz on this page at the end of the article, select "price growth yoy", then slide cursor at the bottom of graph back all the way to 1999 if you like.

Yeah, that's not a great source - it's taking Barfoot's data only and it takes the growth of an average, which will distort any time-series analysis.

If you're going to rely on anything from interest.co.nz to make this call then this is a better source:
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/house-price-index-reinz-rbnz2

HPI was formulated in conjunction with the Reserve Bank and adjusts for the composition of REINZ nationwide sales data.

Peak HPI index was 3,381.3 in November 2007
Trough was 2,995.1 in January 2009.
That's a 11.4% drop peak to trough. [edited my calculation]

Isn't it an 11.4% drop? Just checking...

Erm correct - in my haste I did it the wrong way around.

12
up

Yvil you're very clueless, go and read my post again and stop running around like a headless chicken! I was talking about the Global Financial Crisis in general which we know caused property markets to crash around the world or are you trying to reject that information?

You're obviously terrified that Auckland's prices are going to start to fall (Possibly crash) by late 2019. It's just part of the course, you can't expect NZ to have a stable economy based on money laundering that pushes prices beyond wage earners reach. That's just ridiculous and no real Investor or FTB would put their life savings in such a market.

And he's still talking about the effect it HAD IN THE UK when HE WAS IN THE UK, not once has he said prices dropped 20% in NZ after the GFC. You're arguing against something that hasn't been posited....

Hahaha, thanks Solidname, I think CJ might be on the wrong website lol, I now see why he doesn't understand the NZ market

Hi Yvil,

As you note above, there are some here who are rather biased.......

They don't let the facts interfere with their fiction / fabrication.

TTP

Well here you go Yvil & TTP. Some FACTS and EVIDENCE for you about the Global Finical Crisis in the UK from 2008 to current times.

Article from the Independent: How the global financial crisis hit the UK housing market
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/global...
Quote: "One of the major factors behind the global financial crisis was a downturn in the US housing market, and in turn, one of the major effects of the meltdown was chaos in the UK property market.
House prices tumbled: the average UK property’s value plunged by 20 per cent over 16 months, while transaction levels slumped from 1.65 million in the decade up to the crisis to 730,000 in the year to June 2009".
"It took six years for prices to return to pre-crash levels, and growth has continued since, although it has slowed in recent months (in Northern Ireland, prices are still nowhere near their pre-crisis peak), and transactions have yet to recover".

CJ, you are on the wrong website .co.nz stands for New Zealand, you should find websites that finish in .uk so that your posts have some relevance

That would be very ignorant and narrow sighted of you.

@ Yvil: Try to lean from what happened in the recent past otherwise you are destined to repeat the same mistakes! Luckily most FTB's and real Property Investors are not as idiotic as you and they know they just have to play the waiting game for the market to drop back to reality. :)

It would be unbelievably foolish to think that property downturn trends that have happened overseas, and the AKL market is now replicating, can simply not happen here.
The banks have been lowering interest rates for months and sales rates continue to fall. The 2018 Spring market "rush" never came, the March "rush" never came, the interest rate deals keep getting better and better and the banks can't find the customers. RE agents are letterbox dropping for new listings because the listings on their books aren't selling. Buyers know the prices are coming down and they can hold out for a better deal.

Those of us who have lived through, and sold property during, RE downturns overseas are witnessing the EXACT same precursors in NZ right now. You can read all the RE opinion pieces you want, and you'll no doubt find someone who'll tell you it will bounce back this year, but it won't.

It's still in a holding pattern right now, but once the "births/deaths/marriages/divorce" sales start ramping up and people HAVE to sell, that's when you'll see the full effect of the downturn.

Here's some further effects of a downturn for you. Remember Oz has experienced the same market forces that we have. Do you still think it's foolish to look at what's happening in the world to see what is likely to happen here?
Article: The West Australian: Falling values push house prices back to 2006 levels.
https://thewest.com.au/business/housing-market/falling-values-push-house...

Hi Yvil,

Asking CJ099 to use/quote relevant websites [and data] is, frankly, asking too much of her.

By all accounts, CJ099 is in the business of misleading and deceiving people.

TTP

TTP you are the Queen of deception and promoting ignorance since you simply can never provide any facts to support your arguments. Very hypocritical of you. How about you actually support one of you claims with some real facts when you're next trying to persuade us (And FTB's) that Auckland's house prices are about to rise?

Hi CJ099,

As I've said before, I stand by the accuracy of my predictions/forecasts.

If I'm significantly wrong, I'll take it on the chin. But to date, what I've said has been pretty much spot-on.

More than two years ago, when I suggested that the Auckland housing market would prove to be pretty resilient and that there would be NO crash in Auckland house prices, people like you rubbished me.......

But, sure enough, there's been NO crash. In fact, the word "crash" is hardly used here these days.

TTP

Nope I haven't seen any accuracy from you TTP in your predictions. Plus I've already given you a time frame of how long it take a property market to go from 'stagnation stage' through to possible crash stage - a decline of -20% over 2 years, supported that with examples from similar situations from the recent past. So in conclusion, I predict that we'll see significant property price declines in Auckland by later this year in to early next year especially for the top end of the market.
We're already seeing that play out over in Oz with similar market forces that effected our property market. Also taking in to account mortgage rates dropping. Even if they were to go to 1% rates that still would not be enough to stop the higher end of the Auckland market from falling to more affordable levels.
I doubt that Auckland will drop as dramatically as Australia has but remember we have experienced that same market forces. Keep in mind that some area within Oz have already crashed. Article; The West Australian : Falling values push house prices back to 2006 levels.
https://thewest.com.au/business/housing-market/falling-values-push-house...

Yvil, the other day you said that you came to NZ in 1992.
Do you not have any experience of housing slumps from wherever it was you came from?
Because pretty much all the world has had them. No one is immune

Yes I cam to NZ in 92, I grew up in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 5th floor of an apartment building, it was average working class accommodation but I was very happy there. Not sure why you ask if I have experience in housing slums?

Because as I said, most parts of the world have experienced housing slumps, and anyone who is fairly worldly knows that.
Do you think NZ is somehow magically immune to them?

@Yvil. Gravity is global, along with greed and stupidity.

REA-TTP, many have noted your comments forecasting a "bull run" very shortly or at least by significant "upswing" by 2020/21. What are YOUR supporting facts that make your fairy tale wish become non-fiction? For once stop behaving like a weasel. These careless unthought comments you keep posting do have an owner after all ;-)

Despite your dodgy beliefs, patient savers are watching their TD's gain value against a sinking Auckland market. As expected, my house value is falling and as its a house to live in, I don't give a toss.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

Where have I suggested that there will be a bull-run "very shortly or at least by significant "upswing" by 2020/21"???

My position here - for a long time - has been that there will be NO significant housing market upswing in Auckland until 2021 - at the earliest.

I have repeated that message many times - as you well know.

TTP

Care to supply that prediction with some facts of how you came to your property "upswing" bull run what ever you want to call it? Send us a link even, we'd be very interested in see you support your theory? To quote you: "I have repeated that message many times - as you well know".
Or are you just trying to deceive FTB's in to get in to heavy mortgage debt?

....CJ099, REA-TTP has no facts. How can he when all his foresight is derived from scattershot guesswork?

Hi Retired-Poppy,

Care to answer my question to you in my post above - concerning the topic of bull-runs......

Or have you fumbled again - and unable to answer?

If you can't back up your assertion about me, then we can only assume that you're a disreputable person.

TTP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv4kp4ZnSuE

Com'n Agent, ditch the scattershot guesswork and show us ya verifiable facts! I'm not being held to account here for using the terms "bull run" and "upswing" and time frames of 2020/21 in relation to the direction of Auckland property prices. You are.

Who knows, despite the well aired views of many here, yourself and like minded Yvil might actually know something about property after all. I'm open minded ;-)

Hi Retired-Poppy,

As anticipated, you've again been unable to substantiate your allegations concerning me. (If you'd had a leg to stand on, you would have done so.)

You are dishonest / disreputable.

TTP

Accusations of bias from TTP, hilarious!

YVIL, I'm all for positive thinking but you may have to face the fact that the Auckland property market is far from healthy. It's lost its life support system - hot cash from China and needs to learn to breathe on its own. It will recover though.

I totally agree with you Pietro. I just have an issue with people claiming NZ houses are tanking when both the QV report out yesterday and B&T's report today show steady prices (actually +2.3% pa by QV)

Auckland property market is tanking not ALL of NZ. There is a huge difference between affordable and over inflated property pushed up by overseas money that has most gone! Stop trying to distort the facts Yvil.

17
up

With the property selling average price at $928,992, it's not surprising that sales volumes are at a nine year low. There still far too unaffordable for the majority of wage earners who don't want to get themselves in so much mortgage debt that they know they never be able to fully pay off in their life time.

The "9 year low" figure is no coincidence either, that basically cover the majority of the time that the National party allow overseas property investment (money laundering) to go with out any restraints, the majority of it got funneled in to Auckland's property market. Which explains why there's such a gap between wage earners and property affordability. Prices are going to slide further in to next year, I recon they'll bottom out when the average house price reaches around $750k to $700k for a three bedroom property in Auckland.

15
up

There are lots of statistical distortions in these kinds of markets. I only go by the HPI these days.
Looks like a pretty sick market, though.

17
up

This type of data looks a lot like the data that Perth, Sydney and Melbourne experienced right before it all went backwards.
Of course, after reading these comment threads for the past couple of years, it just isn't possible for NZ to follow their lead with a downward cycle, because it isn't possible. It just isn't possible. Nope, doesn't happen in NZ.
*Sips tea

Not wanting to do sums in other peoples pockets but;
653 sales in January
474 sales in February
963 sales in March
667 sales in April
821 sales in May
3578 sales so far this year.
Divided by 1700 Real Estate Agents = 2.1 sales per sales person (Total staff around 2200 and will be a cost base rather than income generative)
Average Sales price (say a generous $900,000 this year) with commission as per Barfoot Website = $23,850.
2.1 x 23,850 = $50,085 in commission of which the agent will probably get half so average income for the sales people will be $25,042.5 so far with a quiet 2-3 months of winter ahead, perhaps a little top up from a failed Auction marketing campaign. Looks like more training is required and a narrative from the Top Brass that helps educate sellers better would probably help the sales people, otherwise the staff (who aren't salaried will be tightening their belts to pay their own mortgages/rent and eat this winter.

I'll be sure to say a little prayer for the Auckland real estate agents tonight.

Flat prices mean losses for owners looking to sell if they have to pay real estate agents commissions. I'm expecting a surge in sales by owners. I know I'm probably going to be one of them.

It could be that Barfoot's are losing market share, but if we assume that they aren't and overall share of sales is constant, then if this is replicated across the market, then the low volumes will by default, impact the credit growth that the economy needs to keep ticking. If volumes of sales continue to drop, then another cash rate cut is inevitable.

"Prices steady" as have noticed, many who are buying houses are stretching to get more out of their deposit.

Houses in 700s/800s have not fallen as much as houses in million or million Plus. Currently one is able to find a very good deal if have a budget in high 800s to mid 900s.

A house as mentioned in other article in sunnyhill went yesterday for $925000 (4 bedroom/2 Bath on appox 950 sq mt in Sunnyhill) and the person who bought was earlier - last year, if was looking for a house in Early to Mid 800s have streched as got a million dollar Plus house for early 900s - more value for money and is a better investment than buying a free standing very old huse in Pakuranga or 3 bedroom which have a asking of anything between 800 to 900 (Only if one can extend and afford).

Would I pay Mid 800s for a 3 bedroom unit OR near around 900s for a free standing 4 bedroom house (If can strech) - Judge for yourself.

In this scenarion, median house price will not give fair idea.

Bang on. Also with low interest rate people are able to stretch slightly - get more for their deposit.

So many who have bought half share of cross lease property in last few years in Howick for High 800s to early 900s will be repenting as now on that price are able to get a full section house and if budget in high 700s to early 800s than in Pakuranga area (Just ignore the asking specially in Pakuranga and nearby area and offer near around 800s and most probably will get it - how they use to say ignore the CV , now ignore the asking as even agents knows that will be offered much less than asking and in Bucklandbeach , Howick and near around area between mid 800s to early 900s for most free standing good houses)

It is not long before market at all level starts to fall (It would have started by now but low interest rate will delay the process - not avoid)

Fasinating. I for one am still hung up by the CGT being aborted. I can't help but wonder if it was intended to never actually implement it but to scare the market into submission, as it were. Does anyone see it that way too?

No CGT will be more for farmers and business as for housing, one already have BLT and if the government decides to implement it seriously than is as good as CGT but for next few years who is talking about Gains - so does not matter much except some, who may try to lift the sentiments in a falling market but.............

Wow Yvil keep your head down mate and let all the others keep firing now historically meaningless numbers at you. Seriously its pointless, doesn't matter if they claim prices crashed 30% here after the GFC, the recovery was phenomenal and eclipsed any falls. The big debate is what lies ahead and its not looking pretty. We are looking into a self inflicted big black hole and that is without GFC2 and now there is no foreign money to keep the alcohol and cocaine flowing at the party. If the music suddenly stops its going to get ugly.

Thanks Carlos67

Did you read the second half of Carlos67's piece?

So yesterday QV comes out with NZ yoy values up 2.3% Auckland values down 2.1%
Today B&T come out saying values are flat
Yet hordes of people on this site are saying house values are down and also about to go down. There seems to be real anger and non-acceptance by many at reports stating that house prices are not falling. Why is that? FHB hoping house values will go down to buy cheaper? Hatred for those who own a house? Envy? What other genuine reasons for wishing house prices to drop?

10
up

Its because many are choosing to ignore facts to suit a bias or stated position due to some bizarre tribalism...

Simple facts are Auckland HPI - 4.4% YOY......so that's "like for like" sales... throw in inflation/and or opportunity cost and its closer to - 6-7% on your money...that's not small change

*And that's in a market with...*

- Record low interest rates
- Still sky high immigration
- And (apparently?) a huge housing shortage..

Wider economic news is a trade war between the 2 largest economies on the planet, our 2 largest trading partners (China and AUS) with rapidly slowing growth and credit rationing globally....and record household debt EVERYWHERE with bugger all wage growth

I gave up years ago trying to understand the rationality of NZ property market as it seemed to defy logic..... I'm not so sure "this time its different..."

On the balance of probabilities it's pretty darn gloomy

Hi mvgsmf

You write, "Wider economic news is a trade war between the 2 largest economies on the planet, our 2 largest trading partners (China and USA)......."

With all due respect, that's the very reason that so many people across the world yearn to live in New Zealand: they seek geographical distance from geopolitical tensions!

Seriously, I thought you would have cottoned onto this.

Salutations,

TTP

OH FM! gets more redork useless by the hour.

@ Yvil: No, it's to do with the ECONOMY STUPID! Relying on a false economy is the pointless matter. Letting FTB's get in to such high levels of mortgage debt with unrealistic house prices is senseless and leads to an very unstable economy which can cause banks to collapse etc.. It also kills real economies and business since it pushes up the cost of living in the larger cities. We've already seen that happen quite recently in the Western World or are too ignorant or just stupid to care about that?

14
up

I think the majority of people would rather that everyone need not spend so much money on the land they need for a house, and have more time and money left over for other things.

How is that hard to comprehend? Unless one was deeply invested and benefiting disproportionately from the current game.

If people have access to sites showing sales prices and can compare to previous periods, and in addition they are estate Agents who see daily what is happening, then they know and will say that prices are falling: in some suburbs, not others. A lot in some, a little in others. Talking about Auckland average and median is very unhelpful, as there are markets for apartments, sections, LSB, houses and people can afford different amounts in different areas.

Hi Yvil,

All good points.....

But note that some of them are not just biased - they're bare-faced liars.

TTP

Calm down people, let face it NZ is becoming like Spain few year ago. Only with few exceptions;
Spain has great weather, we don't.
Barcelona is amazing city, Manukau is not.
Spanish is a cool language.. Kiwilish is meh... we r duffurent

Da Kiwi accent is da best in da world. Dats gotta be wurf a cuppala $100k.

https://www.morefm.co.nz/home/trending/2019/04/study-finds-kiwis-have-th...

..... and, in Spain, bulls are allowed to kill people as they walk down the road.

That doesn't happen anywhere in NZ, as far as I know.

TTP

Spain is a short flight from a number of nice European cities whereas NZ is a long flight from, well, pretty much anywhere.

I do own property in Spain and I go there every year so I have some knowledge, Spain and NZ are different because:
- 5% unemployment in NZ vs 20% ish in Spain, that's a very big factor
- it might not be very PC to say that but the majority of Spanish people are not workers at heart, siesta and the good life is more important (I'm not blaming them) but in an economic sense it is not helpful. Kiwis on average work harder than the Spanish

I do own a property in Eketahuna, where we have nil unemployment and plenty of water. Wanna swap?

Hi Chairman Moa,

You ought to stay in Eketahuna......

It's the ideal place for you.

TTP

Yep, more lively than Palmy North... The pond has good flowing water and no algae or duck weeds!

TTP
Do you live in Palmy or just have investment property there?

I'd probably have to pay you some $ on top of the swap Chairman Moa, RE values in Spain are low and have been so for years. Google "Caple" (or Calp in Catalan)

Are you really this ignorant? Spain's unemployment rate was around 7-8% prior to the GFC. Their economy was artificiality propped up by excessive construction due to a property bubble. Unemployment only skyrocketed to 20%+ once the property crash occurred and construction dried up (in addition to the international results of the GFC).

Any of those factors sound familiar? Property bubbles create employment based on unsustainable debt growth.

The 6 months sales volume is 17 percent lower than last year. Only the corresponding period of 2008 has seen lower aggregate sales volumes this century. The Auckland housing market has stalled .Sales volumes to stock continues to fall. An external shock will punt this market over the edge.

Problem is, there doesn't seem to be any easy way to restart it now that money from mainland China has disappeared. Even dropping interest rates doesn't significantly increase the number of households that could safely take on (for example) $500k in debt to buy what they can get for that (let alone more), and then you have to factor in both banks' stress testing at higher rates again and the need for a large deposit.

Maybe the early sellers will get the buyers with the most capacity and others will end up having to move down further to meet the market. Will be interesting to see.

Why has the residential property report for May not been presented on their website?

The real message here is that B&T cant move their stock.

HPI is down, QV Valuations are down, homes.co.nz valuations have plummeted!!!!

This months HPI will be interesting and I would gamble that Auckland will be pushing lower, faster!

Easy to see whats happening here, it might take a few more months to become glaringly obvious, but Auckland is sliding off the edge of a cliff.......

When it hits the ground.................. BOOM

Hi everyone,

The real message here is that thegic can't remove his bias.

TTP

Take a breath old man, you're turning purple!

I guess your 50 years of monitoring the market hasn't prepared you for such a reality

Its the external shock that I'm worried about. The property market is currently like a drunk at the party, staggering about not sure which direction its going in but teetering on the edge of falling on its face. NZ has always been the same, there is no stamina in this country. if things go bad elsewhere its like flicking a same switch here. I'm not really with all the DGM's on this site but even a blind man can see a storm coming from feeling the chill wind blowing. Not really getting great vibes out there and I would be cautious for the next 6 months.

An old friend sent me this and he is looking to move back from Singapore, they are tossing between Auckland and Brisbane. Both houses are listing at about same price bracket and he can get job easily in either city of roughly same salary.

https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...

https://www.domain.com.au/news/brisbane-house-of-the-week-high-end-hendr...

10
up

This is why Auckland house prices have to fall - when it becomes cheaper to buy in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane there won't be anyone left in Auckland. The exodus for Australia has already started again, it will increase with pace when people realise how far their $ will go over there. Not to mention Australia offers higher wages, better weather, and a lower cost of living.

The mining sector is hotting up with many large contracts already signed and in the planning stage. Huge infrastructure projects are happening in Sydney, there's planned infrastructure projects in Melbourne, and major employers are even allowing FIFO rosters (2 weeks on, 2 weeks off) in major cities as they need to bring labour in from other states to fill skills shortages. You're dead right, the exodus west is already on!

KW. You are totally wrong if you believe that living is cheaper in Oz!
Wages on the whole are not higher unless you are in a corporate job.
Weather is better obviously, but the cost of living is not any cheaper in the main centres, I would say higher.
I have family immigrated Oz and they say it is expensive, and have plenty of tax’s over there that we don’t have.
If you think it is better then go over and experience it!
If you can not make a go of it in NZ, then you won’t in Oz!

The Man you are wrong. Most daily necessities like groceries, power and fuel are way cheaper in Aus. Rents and house prices in all cities apart from Sydney are cheaper than Auckland.

Fritz, I. Personally have had several weeks in Queensland this year, and have had numerous trips to Oz.
No, I don’t live in Auckland for a variety of reasons.
I have also lived in Queensland.
I can guarantee that living there nowadays is not all beer and skittles, but the weather is good.
Houses cost as much as most parts of NZ but yes Auckland would be more expensive.
The food is on the whole approx the same now apart from a few things.
Petrol is cheaper there but apart from that not much else is!
The customer servicing over there is hopeless and generally the Kiwis work a helluva lot harder.
Wages are certainly no higher and for the average earner you pay more tax.
I have 2 family members in Brisbane and I am expecting them back to NZ in The next month or two as they have now realised that the grass is not as green over there, like they thought!!!!!,

TM2 I am afraid the information you got is incorrect, I am living in Brisbane and often making the trip back to visit. I can tell you cost of living here is definitely cheaper than Auckland, Wellington or Christchurch. There are a number of kiwis in my work place, we all hold the same perception
Sydney might be another story but don't forget wages in Sydney is 10-20% higher than Brisbane. Here a 16 years old kid picking up trolleys from supermarket can earn $18-20/hr, now try that in Auckland! My work place is paying science, IT and finance uni graduates between 60-80K per year + 9-17% super contribution.

BackToPerth seems to enjoy Oz as well. I know for my skill set Oz is a lot better, role wise and money. The only reason I will consider moving back to NZ, are friends and family. Lot more toys for me, to blag my way on and a lot more places for me to drink beer, sometimes free. Unfortunately for me or fortunately, friends and family come first, much more enjoyable drinking beer when your with your friends. Especially on a boat fishing.

Information not incorrect at all!
I have family living in Brisbane and I know the figures!
Wages are no higher than Nz, and my family members are getting the same thing from others Kiwis!,,
If you are on big money you will be seeing things differently, but if you aren’t then it is no diff to NZ.
The Ozzie’s tax every damn thing.
You entitled to your opinion, but from what I know, most are no better than if u are in NZ.

Give me list of essential things from NZ Supermarket, Noel Leeming, the Warehouse and I can supply you a comparison list. I was earning $X NZD in Auckland, here I am earning the same $X in AUD, take home pay is exactly the same as I was in Auckland so that tax thing is a myth. plus here I am allowed to pay for few things pre-tax like car payment, parkings, bus fares and a percentage of my mortgage.
I bought brand new VW Golf for $23,995, now try that in NZD!
Not all things are better in Aus, but cost of living is cheaper and that's a fact!
Check this out: https://www.aldi.com.au/

Actually we have a 16 year old who just started work stacking the shelves in the brand new New World in Long Bay and its paying over $18hr, which I thought was very good.

Excellent - grab that opportunity!

Many of whom we export to Australia will not do well anywhere as they have little or no qualifications. Those who go to Australia with a trade or professional qualification, who work hard and get on well with people will do well. A specialist doctor I know in Perth earns 50 per cent more than here and he gets at least 9 per cent super contributions. Appliances( some NZ made) ,food, petrol, cars, new houses and clothes are much cheaper than here. Booze is dearer but that is a good thing. And it’s warmer and sunnier. Beats NZ especially our South Island which is sparsely populated for obvious reasons.

Gordon, you are just here to stir.
Why do you have to mention the South Island, rather than NZ in general?
If you think it is so much better for yourself, then go and live there.
The 2 family members have both got university degrees , one is an a plus, post grad!
Not worth debating with people who are just out to be antagonistic!!!!!

The Boy as usual you fail to admit the truth. Much of the north island is far warmer than where you live. That is one of the reasons why the population down there is so sparse. And the lack of job opportunities. People want to live in warm, vibrant, growing and exciting places where there are great job opportunities. Hence Auckland and Sydney have grown into very large cities where people want to live. If your so called family members with degrees cannot make good in Australia then it says a lot about them. As they say the people who leave New Zealand to make it good in Australia generally improve the average IQ in both countries.

Intelligent posting once again from Gordon!!!!

I agree with you gordon, many kiwis came to Australia with no qualifications, some made it some didn't, some did stupid thing and ended up with deportation order. I caught a bus one night and had a yarn to the driver while waiting, he's from Timaru, back home his bus driving got him 47K flat, in Brisbane with penalty rates and shift allowances he is on 87K a year.
Kiwi teachers, IT specialist, engineers are doing extremely well here also.

Yes you will notice that The Boy failed in Queensland also and came home with his tail between his legs.

Gordon, you are one jealous old man!
You have not any idea what you are talking about!
We didn’t need to work in Oz so it wasn’t a problem for us!
If my tail is between my legs, take me up on my challenge to you, however we all know you talk and then run!
Go on, show us what you are made of!

More kiwis live in Australia than the town of Christchurch. No brainer really. Better weather, no quakes, better wages even for our less qualified exports, cheaper food, housing, petrol and building materials. Those who return have to have failed as we should all be living there if we had any sense.

Australia is badly lacking in culture - and Australians themselves are well-known for being brash. It's hardly a sophisticated country.

But if you like snakes and used car salesmen, then it's the place to be. (There's no shortage of either.)

TTP