Overall sales rates are relatively stable but there can be big variances in sales rates between individual auctions

Overall sales rates are relatively stable but there can be big variances in sales rates between individual auctions

Activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms seems have have settled into winter mode, with the agency marketing 91 properties for sale by auction last week (10-16 June), down slightly from 94 it marketed for auction in the week from 3-9 June and the 104 it marketed for auction in the week from 27 May to 2 June.

However while auction numbers are continuing to slowly decline, the overall sales rates being achieved remain relatively stable.

Of the 91 properties the agency marketed for auction last week, sales were achieved on 30, giving an overall sales rate of 33%.

That was up slightly from 29% the previous week and 28% the week before that.

Sales rates at individual auctions remain more volatile though, with 71% selling at Barfoot''s on-site auctions last week compared to just 13% the week before.

And at the big Manukau auction the sales rate was 25% compared to 16% the week before.

The table below summarises the results of Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week, while details of the individual properties offered are available on our residential auction results pages.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results 10-16 June 2019
Date Venue Sold Sold post Sold prior Not sold Postponed Withdrawn Total % Sold
10-16 June On-site 3 - 2 2 - - 7 71%
11-Jun Manukau 6 - - 16 2 - 24 25%
11-Jun Shortland St 2 - - 4 - - 6 33%
12-Jun Whangarei - - - 3 - - 3 0
12-Jun Shortland St 2 - 1 9   1 13 23%
12-Jun Pukekohe 3 - 1 3 - - 7 57%
13-Jun North Shore 6 - - 7 3 - 16 38%
13-Jun Shortland St 3 - - 4 - - 7 43%
14-Jun Shortland St 1 - - 7 - - 8 13%
Total All venues 26 - 4 55 5 1 91 33%

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74 Comments

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Same old same old.

Groundhog day in the real estate world. So the auction price ball has stopped bouncing and it's now rolling toward the cliff

Hi CM
Prepared to put a time frame on that?

Don't be silly! if I can put a time frame on that I'd be a billionaire!
Even people like George Soros can only guess!

Yes but we have been hearing about the impending bubble burst for some time now.
How much time is this away? This year, next year, five years away.
With all this talk about the impending bubble burst, and many giving advice to FHB to hold off because of it, just how long are they expected to put their lives on hold?
The prediction of a burst is definite, so how about qualifying the time frame.
The prediction of a burst is a serious mater for FHB so I think those calling it should step up to the plate.
Given a seasonal downturn, the market is currently holding up well, so when?

For FHBs, they just have to work out whether it’s a right time for them to buy accordance their circumstances such as job security, planning for family etc. Stick to their budget, accept the risks of house price might be going up or down over time , assess their ability to pay if the mortgage varies 1-2%. Lastly build up contingency funds for rainy days.
Treat CG as a bonus not a factor and it'll be never the right time to buy or sell a house. Having that shushed and they will be ok!

Hi CM
Sound comments to which I agree.
Claims of a bubble burst can for FHB be scaremongering.
Currently RBNZ, Treasury and most informed commentators see a flattish market but as always a risk - especially due to overseas events - that could impact severely negatively on the housing market.
However for the time being, continuing high levels of immigration and falling interest rates serve as drivers to maintain current market levels.
In the past following periods of house price rises (e.g. 2005) there has been short term corrections of up to 10%. It surprises me that there has yet to be a correction of that order considering the period of house price increases was both very significant and sustained. Currently the recent performance of the market since Auckland’s peak, the current drivers of immigration and low interest rates, plus RBNZ actions on OCR for wider economic reasons, a significant downturn hasn’t been experienced.
In the meantime, care currently needs to be taken to interpreting any negativity in the market as being either seasonal or long term.

Very good post printer8, we could just as well say the market will go up (I don't think it will in the foreseeable future) but at some stage it will happen. In order to help FHB some timeframe should be associated with predictions, otherwise it's meaningless and useless to FHB's.

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It make me laugh when your generation tries to speak for first home buyers in some sort of caring way. Why don’t you refer to them as they are, necessarily signatories of debt creation.

Hi JJ
I do care; I have children and grandchildren. I didn’t stop caring the day they left home.
I also have a social conscience and care about New Zealanders.
I suspect your comment is based on a little bitterness.

OK, will put you on the spot then.
If you have a social conscience, how do you think this housing crisis can be addressed?
What policies can enable middle income Kiwi households, who don't have assistance from wealthy parents, to get in to home ownership?
If you think home ownership isn't a realistic option for many middle income households in Auckland moving forward, what policies do you think are necessary to ensure there are good rental options?
Look forward to your response, as we need critical policy responses not endless discussion on the problem.

Hi Fritz
Having a social conscience and knowing the solution are two different things. After all, I would say that Jacinda and Labour, and the Greens (but definitely not NZ First!!!) would claim that they have a social conscience but they have failed to find a solution in their collective wisdom.
As for a social conscience my posts not only on FHB but also CGT are examples that are reflective of a social conscience. (Some could argue that I am in a position that I can now afford to have a social conscience - and there is probably a little truth in that.)

I assume by housing crisis you are talking both housing supply and affordability.
Rather than a solution to the housing crisis, one first needs to identify the reason for high prices and constrained house supply.
Yes, there has been rapid house price inflation which has created affordability issues for middle income New Zealanders.
One of the things that surprises me in the recent period (2011-2016 for Auckland and slightly later for the provinces ) of increasing house prices is that there has not been every man and his dog privately building spec houses as was the case during the period of house price inflation during the period around 2002-4. Privately funded spec building happened then but not in the period 2012/15 when rapidly increasing prices would suggest it was a good time to spec build (and I did post querying it at the time). We are led to believe that this is due to either a lack of qualified trades people and/or shortage of land.
So addressing issues of qualified trades people and availability of land would be a good start.
Both of my two sons have purchased properties in the past year without the bank of Dad. However, these were both in regional NZ.
For Auckland FHB, I appreciate the concerns. The only positive I can give is that while I don't currently see a property bubble burst (excluding overseas events), I see three events aligning which will hopefully make housing more affordable in Auckland; a period of continuing and falling low interest rates, a relatively flat housing market (+ 2 or 3% and possibly a 5% fall), and improving wages. I may be wrong on this, but it appears that there is likely to be a settlement for teachers in the order of 18%; this will help that group of middle income Aucklanders and hopefully it will flow on to others not in the too distant future. For most middle income Aucklanders, increasing supply of both building by qualified trades people and availability of land as mentioned above is critical.
I worry about rentals. As an ex-landlord I have posted previously that I see both the supply and rising rents as being the next housing crisis. Landlords are business people; return on investment is critical and at the moment the very low yields and increasing compliance costs can only be met by increasing rents and are a disincentive to both current landlords increasing their portfolios and potentially new landlords. Due to then full time work, my rental niche was mainly rental properties suitable to young married professional couples. I am currently more concerned about the increasing cost and shortage of rental properties for middle income NZders who do not qualify for government's WFF packages. While currently home affordability is discouraging to potential FHB, I feel that home ownership is a cornerstone of our culture and way of life and I don't want to see that ideal lost. Addressing housing affordability should be a focus.
So apart from the government throwing heaps of money at the problems, I have no magic wand, but real concerns.
From your comments Fritz, if you are a young New Zealander as I suspect from your comments, I wish you well for your future. You appear to have genuine concerns and I suspect initiative.

Good, thoughtful comment.

I should clarify; clearly it is not just supply issues that have caused house price inflation in Auckland - low interest rates have also been a driver but affordability issues are greater than increases vs lower interest rates. I feel that there are additional factors leading to affordability issues; supply due to trades people, land shortage and a factor I didn’t touch on - historically high levels of immigration (a pro rata rate, from memory, in excess of Australia by about 1.5 to 2).
Reducing immigration per se is a little more complex as skilled trades people are seemingly required.

Contain expenses and save hard while young. I have seen young couples having overseas trips while renting ... duh.... then the baby arrives and it is too late to buy a home, they are trapped. By the time the kids are off their hands they are probably too old to get a mortgage. Then can only wait for inheritance lol

Not sure how old you are but this always makes me laugh, when older people tell younger people to save harder. I'm old myself and I remember housing in my home town of Waiuku being 80K to 120K. Back in those days I was on about 70K, easy to save for a deposit of 8K to 16K for 80K house.

But now the deposit is about 120K for 650K house, with incomes relatively the same. Low quality immigration has suppressed wages for the lower income people. Plus so called middle income earners are lucky to be topping 100K on combined income. They have something we didnt have which is student loans. Back in my day I could easily afford a house on 1 income, not now.

No one said it was easy for todays fhb but we didnt have it easy back in the day when wifey and I were fhb. I think you're quoting house prices from the early 90s and the 70k you earned then was a very good income. By now you must own a street of houses .... probably not .... too bitter.

My father bought a house in the late 80s early 90s in a modest suburb in Christchurch on a single factory labourers salary while my mother was at home with 2 kids. Maybe factories paid well back then I’m not sure? That property is now valued at $400k, so it’s modest.

My friends earn't more, one was a labourer working at NZ steel, construction, another was in the melters, and the other was a meat worker. All could afford a house on single incomes.

Anyway, I don't buy houses for investment, I live in my house, I'm developing a company, that is global in nature. But what has that to do with you belittling people and their saving capacities.

Its ok for you to belittle young home buyers, but get snarky and easily offended when someone tells you that its not as easy as you say.

Happy you buy houses, but still not easy for young home buyers to save for it, today at these prices.

Not a good thoughtful comment.
Cliched and unfair.

It’s certainly another one of those fib pieces often used to push a narrative. “I have seen” “I know people who have”.

It’s great because thanks to the anonymity of the internet nobody can prove them wrong.

Houseworks and wifey did do it tough. They stacked beer crates as they couldn't afford furniture. Ummmm, now how DID they pay for all that beer?

It's the Boomers need to own that extra house that's been a major contributor to the affordable housing shortage.

I agree, Houseworks comment is unthoughltful and can only come from someone who's chosen to be poorly educated.

Nzdan it’s called a personal anecdote
Nothing wrong about that

A personal anecdote would imply a real incident. I don't believe it, therefore haven't called it one.

What the young don’t know is that things change , opportunities arise , nothing remains as it is
Your circumstances can & usually will change
I know I never would’ve guessed where I am today when I was young

Auckland property is safe as houses
Keep the faith

Yep prices eroding away too. If Auctions fetch the best prices for Sellers, I doubt those sold "passed in" or without auctions are doing too well. I have noticed that Private sales are becoming more common. Time to cut out the expensive middleman and remove the Real Estate Agents from the selling cost.

Quote an unrealistically high price to get the vendor to sign away the listing agreement.Then sweet talk him into an auction which is then used to smash the vendor to reality.Standard RE tactics of conditioning .

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Ouchies... CV $1.925, Tried an auction in March, failed, put it on the market at $1.795m a month later.. no bites, relisted mid may with a different agency, failed at auction a few days ago, now asking $1.395m. Humorous how now "The CV is wrong so we won't be quoting it".
https://www.realestate.co.nz/3562410

That's priceless!

ouch. even worse when that happens, as the extra few k/year in rates are even more of a disincentive to buyers.

Similar to my ex-landlords' house. CV $1.7 million.
Listed privately in October, then Harcourts took over in November ("auction date to be announced"). Some people checking out the house in Nov-Dec, then zero, nothing until April.
Then after a few weeks' worth of empty open homes, finally went to auction in May. Didn't sell. Then sold about two weeks after the auction for $1.195 million. Yep, that's 500k below CV.
Ouch indeed.

And the one i'm talking about hasn't sold yet.. already asking $530k below CV, who knows what they end up actually getting.

Now 10% to 20% below CV is the norm with few expectation.

Some free standing weatherboard old house have low CV so go near around CV like a 4 bedroom /2 bath on 940 sq mt land house in Stanniland street in sunnyhills went for 920 which surprisingly had a CV of 880 only - so comparing sell price with over and under CV does not give fair analysis just like median price does not .

Imagine how the vendors must feel. Kids have left home, probably saw their CV of $1.795m and got all excited that some mug will easily pay $2 million for it. Put it on the market, dream of releasing that sweet sweet equity and moving to Waipukurau with a big ol' bag of cash.

What's interesting is the "Historical Home Estimate & Suburb Trends" graph on Homes.co.nz for this property. Was estimated as worth $1.85 Million in June 2018, now it's $1.55 Million in June 2019.
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/hillsborough/3-budock-road/JYBYL

And homes doesn't even show that 6 Budock sold for $1.025m in march 2019, cv is $1.66m.., and that owner purchased it in Nov 2018 for 1.2m. buh-bye to $29k a month (+ the various fees)

They purchased it as part of a bundle. $2.8 Mill ($1.2 apportioned to 6 Budock and $1.6 to "2 & 4" Budock). Maybe they thought they could buy at a bundle rate, and flick them off individually over time for a profit?

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/auckland-city/hillsboroug...

Well spotted. Might have to go to work that way and see whats happened at 2-4 Budock. Having an apartment block going up next door would explain a reduced price.

I love the irony in the listing's subtitle. "Distinguished Career Over". Self written obituary from the real estate agent?

Haha

How pathetic is it that the fate of the entire economy depends on the auctioneer's gavel?!
If we were to track GDP per capita minus indirect contribution from high housing inflation over the last decade, how many notches below zero would that figure be?

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Someone smashed in the shop window at Barfoot & Thompson on commerce street yesterday. Sign of the times.

I heard a rumour someone smashed an avocado against it.

1 out of 9 properties sold at the 10am Eastern Suburbs auction last week!
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/-/media/Website/Documents/Auction-Results-2019...

Thanks VI, That was the Shortland St auction on 12 June, the result of which is included in the table at the base of the article. There were eight properties offered, not nine, and they were mostly in Orakei, Meadowbank, Remuera, Mt Eden and Mission Bay. It shows that even the blue chip suburbs are not immune from current market coinditions.

I should think that those Blue Chip suburbs would be tumbling the fastest when it comes to lack of sales and top end buyers to support those prices. Not that many selling much above CV when prices are above the million or so mark.

I note there aren't too many results (good or bad) from the Bay of Plenty for June & it's 18th June today??????

There has been a downturn in the number of auctions in the BoP and because of the smaller scale of things in provincial centres some agencies have been aggregating their auctions, holding a couple a month rather than once a week. There was also a technical issue with results from agencies in the BoP which I understand has now been resolved. There are a few auctions scheduled in the BoP later this week and those should flow through to our results as normal by the end of the week.

Was that technical issue a poor performance? There's a pill for that...

Looking at the shore and only one sold above CV on the first page, everything else 5-15% under CV.

Except for 12 View Road, Campbells Bay
Listing ID: 775361
Sold For: $2,758,000
Rating Value: $3,900,000

Le Ouch!

8% increase on 2014 CV. Solid effort.

That looks like a loss against inflation, and factoring in fees, maintenance, etc, they've taken a sizable loss over 5 years.

campbells bay in particular seems to have some very "optimistic" CVs.

I think in Auckland we'll see prices edging slightly lower over the coming 3-4 months, nothing too drastic, maybe another 2-4 % down.

Sounds about right to me. Edging gently closer to real value. I predict a slow, but prolonged slide... 2% per month, for a few years, something like that.

2%/month would definitely not be slow!

I'd been anticipating that there would be no significant appreciation in Auckland house prices until 2021 - at the earliest.

But the latest happenings concerning the Govt's backdown on CGT, lower interest rates and increasing immigration suggest that there may be a significant gain in Auckland property values before then.

Watch this space.......

TTP

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TTP, I must have read the same comment by you a hundred times. Do you have something new to say ?

I know, right? Yeah, yeah, nah.

REA-TTP, I see you've moved your "bull run" prediction forward. If we are talking two different events then can you remind readers when exactly the bull run will start?

Please feel free to react like a cornered possum.....

Right? I also find it funny that the FBB, a new law that didn't exist before "had no effect" according to him, whereas not implementing the CGT, which didn't actually exist before will somehow turn things around.

Agent repeatedly slams fist on keyboard in frustration "GODAMMIT HOUSE PRICES - RISE NOW!"

Since January he's gone through six keyboards...

Note that I have made no prediction regarding the timing of the next housing market bull-run.

TTP

Lower interest rates will only provide significant support for house prices if they drop closer to zero.
However, for that to happen the economy would need to be in big trouble. If the economy is in trouble, then there will naturally be less demand for housing. So low interest rates only cancel out the negative effects on housing of an economic downturn.
As has been pointed out to you many times, many immigrants are students or moderate wage earners, who will create minimal demand for buying housing.

brisket, you say:

"I predict a slow, but prolonged slide... 2% per month, for a few years"

2% per month for a few years is NOT a slow slide

I like the new comments filter, well done, it saves quiet a bit of time when there are 100+ comments

you must have a lot of spare time on your hands

Yvil likes to come back to threads several times an hour on the look out for other commentators who stick up for him, so he can personally thank each and every one of them.

and to check the number of 'likes' :)

Of course, but the comments that get the most likes are totally incorrect, fallacies.

When checking Manukau Auction of 11th June - 6 were sold which is bad but when one checks detail of 6 sold, 2 were sold below 500000 and two near 600000 and one for 900s and only one above million.

Does it ring a bell ?

If success rate of 25% is BAD - Important to note is the type of houses that are being sold in auction ( low range houses).

Would like to hear from all experts.

It’s not bad if you’re successful.......!

TTP

I have noticed something similar on the shore. Those selling at auction definitely seem to be at the lower end.

You mean they tend to be the ones in the price ranges that people can afford on NZ wages and salaries without a fat injection of overseas money? ...quelle surprise!