Although fewer homes are being auctioned compared to the same time last year, the sales rate is about the same

Although fewer homes are being auctioned compared to the same time last year, the sales rate is about the same

The number of auctions monitored by interest.co.nz in June was down by around a quarter compared to June last year, but perhaps surprisingly, the sales rate was almost unchanged, with sales achieved on just over 40% of the properties monitored.

Interest.co.nz monitored 606 residential property auctions throughout the country over the four weeks from June 2-29, which was down 24% from the 799 it monitored over the equivalent four week period of last year (3-30 June).

However, the decline in the number of auctions did not appear to have resulted in a reduced sales rate.

Of the 606 residential properties marketed for auction in the four week period of June this year, 226, were sold under the hammer, 23, were sold prior to the commencement of their auctions and six were sold in negotiations immediately after their auctions, taking total sales to 255 and giving an overall sales rate of 42%.

Of the 799 properties marketed for auction in the equivalent four week period of last year, sales were achieved on 325, giving an overall sales rate of 41%.

Sales in June this year were also evenly divided between those that sold for more than their rating valuation and those that sold for less.

Where a sold property could be matched with its rating valuation, 49% sold for more, 48% sold for less and 3% sold for the same as their rating valuation.

Details of the individual properties offered and the results achieved are available on our Residential Auction Results page which is interactive and can be searched by location.

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This is National level data, is it possible to have just Auckland data for comaprison.

The National data level makes it look so much more positive probably

I'm afraid there's no great data conspiracy going on Oreo. We just didn't have time to break out the Auckland numbers this month. But we'll be putting up Barfoot's results for last week in the morning. They'll show a 39% sales rate, about the same as last month's national average, which should you give a reasonable idea of what's happening in Auckland. Doesn't really fit with your manipulation theory though. Sorry about that.

No worries Greg

17
up

They're not running a bespoke data-to-order service.

10
up

I was just thinking that myself.

I laughed.

Of course last month's article broke out Auckland numbers: https://www.interest.co.nz/property/100105/auction-numbers-are-down-year...
I refuse to assume the worst here though. It could be that Greg was just in a hurry to put this out so he could get onto a more interesting story.

16
up

I see Ron Hoy Fong has made the headlines again in todays Herald!

I wonder how Gary "Toughen up, join the army" Lin is gonna be doing five years from now.

Ahh.
The self made man who didn't join the army and who was given $250k to start off his property portfolio?

I don't think Gary Lin is dodgy like the above. He's just one of the lucky ones who started at the right time and like many has done well without really knowing the mechanics of the economy.

"Done well without really knowing the mechanics of the economy"
Tell that to the people paying for his seminars. Yes, he has a property seminar now, because the world needs more property seminars. Obviously.

There's more money in property seminars than owning property.

Yeah, he said that his only goal is to spend all day playing World of Warcraft. So I can't help but jump into conclusions on why he suddenly decided to do some actual work.

How is belittling someone absent going to make your own life better?

Some maths of the "property mentor" business:

1) 400 students, at $19,000 per head = $7,600,000 in revenue. I know he increased his prices and at one time they were $25,000.
2) cost structure would be very lean - would have to pay for marketing, and his tutors.

With those types of economics, that makes it attractive for some of his former students to become property mentors.

To address accommodation costs in Amsterdam, the Dutch have put rent controls in place. Not sure what else they are doing though.

Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

"However, the decline in the number of auctions did not appear to have resulted in a reduced sales rate."

Umm, wot??? In a stable market, a decline in the number of auctions should result in an increased sales rate all else being equal.

Total sales this year was 255, last year was 325. The headline could easily have been "22% drop in auction sales YoY putting pressure on sales prices"

had a chuckle when I read that too

Eveywhere in the world data is used to potray what suits the one presenting and if too obvious and cannot manipulate will be used to dilute but the question is for how long.

No one can deny that housing market in NZ and Auckland in particular is bad and the process has started in last few months so still a while before it comes to its logical/enomical conclusion - Wait and Watch and no FHB should fall for any sort of spin.

There is a cost to good quality reporting. All the high quality news outlets such as NYTimes, WashingtonPost, etc. now charge subscription fee. Interest.co.nz is still free and needs to find ways to earn money and that is fair.
Cheers.

Your post infers that Interest is not quality reporting, I find that rude. If you don't like Interest, don't read it and refrain from commenting

Not sure, why you jumped to that conclusion.

Also you can make a monthly financial contribution to Interest

..I read more on here than the NBR, IntCo do a fine job.

Well we seem to be doing somethings right, Auckland has dropped quite a number of places on the worlds most expensive cities according to this recent Bloomberg article.
Auckland has slipped eight places to number 89 on the cost of living survey : These Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities for Expats in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-most-expensive-cities-for-expats/

30% fewer sales than last year - prices steady. That trend has been going on for 2 years now.
Too many falsely believe that fewer sales means dropping values.

Did this article say that prices were steady?

Not ad verbum but the following quote (data) shows steady prices

"Sales in June this year were also evenly divided between those that sold for more than their rating valuation and those that sold for less.

Where a sold property could be matched with its rating valuation, 49% sold for more, 48% sold for less and 3% sold for the same as their rating valuation"

And this from Interest's daily 4pm market wrap: (no I'm not David Chaston although you'd be forgiven to think I wrote it)

Fewer sales doesn't seem to be hurting overall housing values. Data released today by the RBNZ (M10), and based on CoreLogic databases, shows that the value of all housing (owner-occupied and rental housing together) has reached NZ$1.127 trillion, which is +4.4% higher that a year ago.

"value of all housing (owner-occupied and rental housing together) has reached NZ$1.127 trillion, which is +4.4% higher that a year ago"

Yvil, if it were all put on the market tomorrow it certainly wouldn't be worth NZ$1.127 trillion. In your case, it's safer if the celebrations are reserved for gains that are actually banked.

Are you also celebrating 30-year, 500K mortgages and how FHB's can raid their retirement funds to buy into this toppy NZ$1.127 trillion market? Are you also celebrating the absence of undiscerning overseas capital that got us here? Supported by 90-year low interest rates and knowing that price to income ratios are at all time highs, there's only one way to go and that's down. The question is, what will be the rate of decline over what period of time. This NZ$1.127 trillion market your celebrating is vulnerable to demographic shifts as well as overseas missteps. All this whilst there's clearly documented evidence there's an absence of traditional monetary support going forward to support a quick fire recovery.

I wouldn't say that that quote, i.e. the 49%/48% one, indicates steady prices because it doesn't compare the RV stats to the same stats a year ago. For all I know, a year ago 70% of properties (that sold at auction) were selling above CV. Unfortunately I don't think interest.co.nz were collecting the RV stats a year ago.

I was collecting the stats a year or so ago and they were remarkably similar ever since the new Auckland RVs came out. Around 48% above or below with the odd one exactly the same.

Hi Yvil,

You write (above): "Too many falsely believe that fewer sales means dropping values."

Indeed you're correct.

And, notably, it's the DGM who have (so often) asserted that values must drop with falling sales volumes. This fallacious belief has underpinned their wildly astray predictions (over the last 2-3 years) of savage price discounting. A while ago, the DGM were even suggesting that there would be a housing market "crash". What nonsense!

The reality is that, yet again, house prices have shown to be sticky-down. In fact, in a number of regions prices are still increasing. Even in Auckland, prices have proven remarkably resilient.

This is the achilles heel of the DGM.......

TTP

DGM types have been claiming that house prices are about to crash for close to a decade on this site. Because sales volumes are dropping, because Sydney, because FBB, because CGT, because incomes not keeping pace, because China, because interest rate hikes, because fundamentals, because feelings. Never even occurs to them that they could learn a thing or two from past trends - that is for “spruikers who only look in the rear view mirror”. Case in point, here is a quote from a classic DGM in 2011, right before prices started to skyrocket -

by Anon good nurse | 7th Jun 11, 12:18pm
“Now the property bubble is collapsing in order for the market to fall back to where it should be, which is in line with fundamentals.
There are still plenty of desperate spruikers around trying to hype the property bubble back to life, but they have lost the battle and the war with fundamentals.”

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/53641/join-us-today-1-pm-live-web-in...

Ah, DD is BLSH reincarnated.

No

Beaut comment D D and typical attached post which keeps getting repeated weekly on Interest

Even the author of that linked article, Amanda Morrall, has been banned! Wonder who she has reincarnated as?

https://www.interest.co.nz/users/amanda-morrall

Pragmatist, I think you hit the nail on the head!

"DGM types have been claiming that house prices are about to crash for close to a decade on this site"

so for friend DD has been following this site for a decade, but created his account just 2 weeks ago... patience is a virtue :)

That’s one of Retired Poppy’s old accounts.

LOL

lol!

Everyone should just relax and listen to some Tony Alexander from 2016. This stuff is Gold!! Shame only 612 people and the attendees at the debt seminar he was running have watched it.

https://youtu.be/A-psmZvMT3M

Flicked through a bit, watch what he says at 29:30.

From 2016 to 2019, there has been continued population growth in Auckland.

Yet overall property prices in Auckland have at best been flat, and at worst, fallen.

The same can be said for Sydney - rising population, yet falling property prices.

The same can be said for Ireland in 2007 - rising population, yet subsequent falling property prices. That same point was used to justify property prices rising. Refer https://www.irishtimes.com/prices-up-15-in-2005-and-growth-will-continue...
"To address this one needs to look at the factors driving property demand, principally population growth. Taking into consideration trends in fertility and migration, current forecasts would suggest that the population of Ireland will increase from 3.9 million in 2002 to 4.81 million in 2016.

Further considering rising living standards, falling household sizes and the need to replace obsolete stock, this forecast suggests that the total housing stock in Ireland would rise by over 800,000 in the 15-year period, which is equivalent to 56,500 units per annum.

Such a forecast, which is high by either historical or international comparisons, bodes well for the future performance of the industry overall."

It doesn't seem that population growth is driving property prices ...

Was looking at several properties in central suburbs auctioned last week. Final sold prices are much higher than I'd expected. As a potential buyer who has been closely following the market for two years, I'd say prices are really firm and good properties are really hard to come by.

Evidence?

see below

Blowjoy . I got stuck in a Barfoot's auction last week. With several properties from the central suburbs. None of them actually had a price. . From Interest .co 27-Jun Shortland St, CBD 0 6 6 0. I believe the last zero means nothing sold ,before ,during, after and post auction.

18 Marsden Av. Mt Eden auctioned on 3 July. Sold for $1,355,000. Lots of buyer at open home. Expectation out of first open home was around $1.1m, then adjusted to $1.2 m right after the second open home. CV for this one is not accurate, seller and agent agreed on that.
29A Horotutu Road, Greenlane, Sold For: $1,450,000. CV: $1,330,000. No proper school in the zone. Quite surprised at the final price.
1/30 Arcadia Road, pre-action offer after one weekend. sold over $1 m.

Was also looking at North Shore. Milford, 1/22 Woodbridge Lane Sold For: $1,260,000, CV $1.1m.

If you suggest me to stay away from those popular suburbs or newer homes, then you do not have to reply. Because those are homes people actually want to live in, given the traffic situation in Auckland and overall building quality in NZ. And my original comments are based on that.

A bad housing market is surely epitomised by lower % of owners each year and inability of society to produce good quality affordable houses for those needing them. If prices for existing owners are not falling is this REALLY to be our metric of satisfaction?

How does one get ' stuck in an auction ' cowpat ?

Now you are lacking imagination and perhaps foresight and wisdom