Although fewer people are selling by auction, there are fewer dreamers and tyre kickers, which is pushing up the sales rate

Although fewer people are selling by auction, there are fewer dreamers and tyre kickers, which is pushing up the sales rate

The number of properties being auctioned remains at very low levels but perhaps surprisingly, the sales ratio continues to improve.

Interest.co.nz monitored just 127 auctions throughout the country in the first week of July (1-7 July) compared to an average of 151 a week in June.

However of those, sales were achieved on 56, giving a sales clearance rate of 44%, up slightly on the 42% sales rate for the whole of June.

And most sales are being achieved under the hammer.

Last week no properties were withdrawn from sale or had their auction date postponed at the auctions that were monitored, with 48 selling under the hammer, one selling prior to being auctioned and seven selling in negotiations immediately after the auction.

Selling prices also appear to be evenly clustered around properties' Rating Valuations (RVs).

Where selling prices could be matched with RVs, 47% sold for more than their RV, 47% sold for less and 6% sold for the same as their RV.

In Auckland , where there is the greatest amount of auction activity, the sales clearance rate was 46%,  and 56% of those that sold fetched more than their RV (where prices could be matched).

Anecdotal evidence from agencies and auctioneers suggests that although the number of properties being auctioned is at a very low level, vendors who are taking that route are more committed to a sale, have a better understanding of the current market and have more realistic price expectations than they did a few months ago.

And while potential buyers are being cautious, those that are active are serious and will make a purchase if they find something that suits them and the price is realistic.

So there are less dreamers among the vendors and fewer tyre kickers among the buyers.

However with the numbers being so low, salespeople still have their work cut out for them this winter.

Details of all the properties at the auctions monitored by Interest.co.nz last week are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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I’m not sure why anyone would choose to sell via auction in Auckland’s current climate. I’d list with a price slightly higher than RV and sit tight.

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Translated "I chased the market up to frothy heights, I now possess the power to control its descent"

When ones ideology is under threat from a changing world, it's foolish to allow stubbornness to take over. It will only widen your losses. It's hardly an investors "Buy Low Sell High" success story now is it? From early 2017, patient Auckland based first time buyers have gained and are still gaining huge financial advantage. I'll safely bet you didn't forecast that would happen.

Yes, he might have a new name, but the same tired old storyline is a give away.

Your translation skills leave much to be desired

Hardly. At current valuations there's widespread buyer apathy much like as in Sydney/Melbourne. Best you meet the market to find out what the dwelling is really worth

RP, why are you always so bitter? Life is good try to enjoy it

Yvil, why are you so quick to label my push for transparency "bitter"? I think its telling of your own situation. Anyhow, thanks for the timely reminder that Spruikers have unique taste buds. Its encouraging to know (^_-)

I never really comment on these forums, but it must be said that reading comments from you lot is like watching a bunch of old ladies bicker over a bingo ticket.

Isn't that what forums are for, listening to peoples opinions, I think this is the most moderate ones I have been on, and its pretty entertaining without the swearing as well.

I actually learn some things as well, believe or not, some more then others. Plus you learn a lot about people, with their bias. Very funny.

13
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Every week we have coverage of auctions sales.
Meanwhile there is no commentary on the dramatic difference in drop in sales between prop over $1.4m and that under $800k. Why is REINZ not giving this despite it being a simple matter to get from website data? One word: confidence. It must be bolstered. Meanwhile whilst reading the tunes of auctions, sales in June in Auckland were lowest since 2001 with one exception: 2008.

Yawn, so repetitive, so tiresome

Agree, just as the auction results

Houseworks, if Ron Fong offered you ten more seminars for the price of one you'd be aroused...

That's your predickament Poppy

Ha-ha-ha:)

Subtle humour poppy, subtle humour. Still not as good as yours

11
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Auctions only really work if its a Sellers market, currently we're going through a price adjustment to meet a more realistic wage earn price levels. So not wise to sell at auction in the current Buyers market that we're in.

21
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You had a market for five years rife with speculation and foreign money flow. That was over 40% of Auckland sales. Now it is back to basic demographic movers only. So look to 2012 for new normal figures. But at present running 30% below THAT. People need to adjust to fact that the wild west show has left town and next visit not for 5-6 years.

If your house is in a prime location, well presented and your price expectation is truly realistic it makes sense to go with an auction. There is a good chance you will have a fairly stress free and rapid sale. With B&T it doesn't cost any more and you can go straight to negotiated sales if the auction doesn't work out.

ZS, it's a no brainer that houses with 100s of thousands spent on tasty renovations will sell first and at a better price in a buyers market. There's the luxury of choice. The trouble is, with increasing material and labour cost, people are rightfully starting to question whether tasty renovations translate into capital gain going forward in this sagging market. Less spending at home improvement outlets is likely playing its part in weakening the services sector. Employers will no doubt be starting to focus on salary levels. So begins the cycle.

I would hesitate to buy a recently renovated house for top dollar though. It's a bit like buying a new car or a new house even. You would want to be sure of holding onto that house for a long time to ensure you don't get burnt. A house in my area had big renovations done in 2016 and then sold for a high price, however it recently sold for close to 300k less than they paid for it.

...in other words, due to pronounced pricing weakness in the upper escalons, Auckland house prices are indeed falling.

I don't know. I recall at the time thinking it sold for way more than it was really worth. There will always be examples of places that sold for way higher than they should have. Possibly people not understanding the difference between cross-lease and freehold or not doing their homework. Some people have no idea about these things.

RP is still making stuff up, here's quote form yesterday's article about the REINZ sales for June:

"In the Waitemata and Gulf ward which includes some of the city's most expensive suburbs, the median price was up 16.3% compared to June last year"

RP will probably try to spin it to somehow show that values are going down or he may cherry pick to find an area where houses have gone down, but still the fact is that

"In the Waitemata and Gulf ward which includes some of the city's most expensive suburbs, the median price was up 16.3% compared to June last year"

Maybe RP doesn't understand the difference between number of houses sold, which has indeed gone down significantly and prices, which have remained quite steady

So Yvil, are you disagreeing with RP's claim that prices at the top of the market have fallen? Anecdotally, as someone who has been following that part of the market fairly closely for a year or so, e.g. visited probably 60+ open homes, it does feel to me like it has fallen. Always interested in other perspectives though.

Well I believe REINZ data is better than RP's wouldn't you say so?
The values are down in Eastern Auckland, Orakei, Mission Bay, Kohi, St Heliers but flat or up in Central Auckland, Ponsonby, Herne Bay, St Mary's, Freemans Bay IMO

Yvil's getting a little worried...

Can you buy chill pills in Bali without risking arrest? I'm pleased you're taking my comments seriously.

Try and take time out from commenting here to enjoy your holiday in Bali :-) When I was there, it was the last thing on my mind lol!

Taking your comments seriously, your delusionnal RP

Yes I'm so worried, you should see me shake in my... jandals. LOL

I'm sure the REINZ data could be used to definitively answer the question of whether the top end of the market is weaker than the rest of the market, but I'm not aware of that having been done and released to the public. The fact that the median is up 16.3% YoY for the Waitemata and Gulf ward is interesting, but without further information it's hard to infer too much from it.
I will note that there's at least one very large premium apartment development in central Auckland that is no doubt selling many expensive apartments. Of course foreign buyers can buy such apartments off the plan. Whether this is a significant factor or not I don't know, but it's worth thinking about.

"The values are down in Eastern Auckland, Orakei, Mission Bay, Kohi, St Heliers"

You gave me a hard time about saying that the other day?
Why has your tune changed?

I said that it was not right for you to hand pick the 7 worst sales out of 74 to make your point. I never said values in the eastern suburbs weren't down, they are 2 separate points.

Yes, and we covered the reasons why I did that, in detail.

Really. The crux is: how many sell at those ridiculous levels? Answer in 2019 is a lot fewer and the reason is that 40% of buyers there last year have gone.

Man I am really surprised that a real estate agent would talk the way you do. I am not surprised that you have no listings to speak of and that you work for a relatively unknown brand.

10
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Your comment is personal and offensive. It has no value in any discussion. You are demeaning only yourself by posting it.

Yeah right! A totally predictable response from a property hater such as yourself. An agent handles a person's most valuable asset. To me Mike has a disrepectful contemptuous attitude so I pity any buyers or sellers who might deal with him.

"property hater" lol:) You're reading like one very sad and washed up Ron Fong disciple. The likes of REA-Mike is what helps keep REA's honest. Can you say you do the same for Landlords? Nah, by your very own admission, we already know the answer to that. Its rich to question another's integrity when you don"t Lodge your own tenants bonds.

Ad hominem is never cool.

I'd want to work with an agent who understands the market they work in and tells me the truth rather than sell me a pipe dream - just like my doctor, lawyer and tax adviser.

I wouldn't want a high priest of property that won't speak a blasphemous word about the market.

Depends on what you mean by "truly realistic" price levels Zachary? If you're looking to sell above the million mark then that's not all that realistic is it. But you may be lucky you might bag some interesting neighbors.
Article: Gang member claims he's been paid to leave upmarket Auckland housing complex
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/central-leader/113700174/gan...

Here is a good example that may test our theories:

https://www.realestate.co.nz/3592636

DGZ Auckland. Well presented. "Affordable" for the type of house and area. It will fetch more than 1M but less than 2M. Will it be an easy sell? I think so.

I'll take a guess and say well below RV. How about $1.4mil?

That sounds fairly realistic.

I might have to revise that figure down as it looks like a cross-lease(?) and that third bedroom is a shoe box. Lets make it $1.2mil

Okay, I'm pleased with your revision. Me: 1450, you: 1200, CJ 990.

The cross-lease question is an interesting one. I think cross-lease properties in the DGZ have up to 500k shaved off their values. This is why a lot of properties have high CVs compared to their true sellable value. Yet we don't see a lot of people converting their cross-leases to freehold. It would make sense to do if it was easy and affordable.

"Affordale"??? Really : 28 Tawera Road, Greenlane, Auckland 2017 CV is $1,650,000. Yep highly likely due for a drop in value even more if it's lease hold which is common for Greenlane property. Homes.co.nz estimate a max of $1.59m So I'd guesstimate that it will pass in at auction. May sell for $990K considering it's titchey tiny with no views. I could do way better in the UK!

Affordable in the sense that it is 'entry level' for the area for a property of this type - standalone, garage, two to three bedrooms, private garden.

I don't live far from there. I might have to go take a look tomorrow so I can play along :-)

Yes, do so by all means. It's a very cute house, suitable for down-sizers, small families or professional couples. Quite a lot of open home visitors on Saturday.

( I have no financial interest in this property other than that I watch this area very closely and am particularly interested in this price bracket, owning properties of similar value)

As a random side note Im seeing private property sales pop up on my facebook feed now. Not a link to a RE website, but more "give me a holla if you want to buy my house".

I'm unsure whether they take this approach and see the elimination of RE fees countering the drop in property value or that they haven't had success with RE agencies to date.

The house sells the house, not the agent, so as much I don't like seeing people out of work hopefully the golden years of being a RE agent are now in the past, and will not return during the market upturn. All gravy trains eventually derail.

Sales rate are up because the vendor are Now getting Flexiable with their price expectation - Lower.

A house listed in January went unsold as the vendors expectation was high 900s to million but now was relisted by another RE agent and was sold for early 900s - WHY - Price Dropped (Lucky for RE Agent as the vendors when Relisting drops their price).

RV of $1125000 and was bought 4 years back for $860000 and now even if sold for for $9250000 near around is a fall (Appox 18% below RV and that too in a very good area)

https://www.qv.co.nz/property/1-14-chip-grove-sunnyhills-auckland-2010/1...

Above is not cherry picking but can check for onself if having any doubts.

So data can be interpreted and sold/potrayed to suit easch individual - normally is vested as supported and promoted by strong Real estate lobby.

Does the headline " Auction numbers well down at start of July but the sales ratio is climbing" gives correct indication (though correct) ? Though when one read the article, it does mention the same so why not the Headline 'Vendors drop Price Expectation to Achieve Sale" or " Vendors with realistic price gets the positive Result' or....

All FHB have to be very carefull and do their homework and check with some experts whom they trust instead of believing everything that comes in media or what the RE Agents may say.

little, you say
"Sales rate are up because the vendor are Now getting Flexiable with their price expectation - Lower"

That view is not substantiated by the facts that:
"where selling prices could be matched with RVs, 47% sold for more than their RV, 47% sold for less and 6% sold for the same as their RV."

Check Pakuranga , Half moon Bay , Howick and near by area and decide yourself.

Anybody having doubts can check. Minimum fall in this areas from peak is 10% and remember this is minimum and if houses are million plus is much more.

Do not believe check few listing with sell history in that area.infact now even 2 bedroom units which were earlier Immune to the fall have started to fall from early to mid 700s to 600s to mid 600s.

This is the reality. It is ongoing process and is falling gradually and steadily because of low interest rate or would have been fast.

You are correct 10% is minimum and also irrespective of what media claims market is down from its peak and where it will stop only time will tell.

Why should I "check myself"? Am I or you going to come up with better data than REINZ? NO, so I'll go with their data, you can make up your own if you think you know better

Up to you.

Face and accept reality. By arguing you are only trying to convince yourself.

As I just said above my "reality" is REINZ data. What is yours?

We've been looking to buy our first nz home in those areas (excl. Pakuranga) and cannot find a decent house selling for a good price in the region of $1m. We're a bit picky I must admit, as we require a 4 bed with 2 bathrooms and an internal access garage. The problem/s with a lot of houses in those areas: 3 bed 1 bath layout, no garage, garden is useless as it slopes, cross-lease properties, plaster houses etc. Any good property that I have liked has sold quickly and at a price close to or above cv or it sold at auction and we refuse to waste money on pre-inspections for auctions.

Did a whole lot of comments get obliterated?

ZS, they certainly did...

"Anecdotal evidence from agencies and auctioneers suggests that although the number of properties being auctioned is at a very low level, buyers who are taking that route are more committed to a sale, have a better understanding of the current market and have more realistic price expectations than they did a few months ago."

Seems like there's a small mistake above. I think it should be "sellers" (or "vendors") "who are taking that route".

Thanks HH. Well spotted.

Freudian slip!

The rate of homes sold before auction in Sydney has increased from about 17 per cent of properties scheduled to go under the hammer in December to more than 25 per cent in June.

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/nervous-sellers-jump-the-gun...

Coming soon to Auckland? Or already happening at the top end as some people here are saying, and coming soon to a price bracket near you?

Subscriber only article.
I wonder how much seasonal variation there is in that pre-auction sales stat.
I'm not a fan of making an offer pre-auction in the current market. Seems like there's a better chance of getting a sharp price once a property has been passed in.

Bloomberg warning on Canada and New Zealand bubbles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/canada-new-zealand-sh...

Thanks for posting that interesting article. It certainly puts things into perspective. It does feel like things have really gotten out of control and I'm a little concerned for the country to be honest.

With ban on foreign buyer and introduction of new law to control money laundering -NZ is sitting on a time bomb as wages in NZ does not support current house price, specially in Auckland and many FHB who have managed, have stretched themselves to maximum limit and will be worst hit. Many speculators who have flipped houses number of time and also money launderes will be least effected by the downtrend.

Like many others, I have been watching the Auckland property market closely for several years. Having skin in the game, the question of whether a crash is coming is of considerable moment. I just get the feeling that we are at a critical point and the next couple of months will reveal all. Will the market continue to gently subside, will the downward trend gather momentum, or will spring bring renewed buyer activity? There seem to be two camps on this forum, but so far the data has not conclusively proven one side's point of view or the other's.

Last spring was supposed to see the market "spring" beck to life. The after Christmas the March rush was supposed to do the same. Neither eventuated. The data shows house prices steadyish, but anecdotally people are getting more house for their money. Sales volumes down, listing numbers down, auction offerings down. I doubt this coming spring will be anything other than a continuation of the inactivity already seen. You'd think the only people selling at the moment are the "births, death, marriage or divorce" home owners. Astute investors would've already sold or are willing to wait it out. There's no upward interest rate pressure so why sell?

Another 'fake news' media item, saying that NZ's property market may crash... dam DMGers... who do they think they are, touting those 'facts' and 'common sense' views.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/114227809/new-zealand-at-risk-of...

They consulted with me before publishing this. It's up there with the DGMs

Seriously, NZ houses are not expensive overall!
You can buy a good Sound roof over your head for less than it costs you to rent!
If houses were too dear then the first home buyers would not be able to buy, and we all know that is not the case.
If you want to own and you can not afford it in Auckland, then go somewhere else.
Life is about making decisions and taking opportunities when they become available.
If you can not afford a home on this market, then I would say that you probably never will own one, unless you find a richer partner!

Cheers The Man. Buyers esp FHB should take the opportunity to position themselves, moving into a different area is one way. How's business, any new purchases?

Hi. Rental market is good in ChCh and always good demand for well present and maintained homes, which every one of our is.
Just doing a wee bit of work on a commercial one we own, where the tenant has just moved out after a long tenure.
We have a new tenant waiting to get in and didn’t even need to advertise it.
Probably our Best Buy as no insurance or rates to pay and achieve a very attractive return on purchase price.
Last one we bought at Auction a few months ago and owners renting for 9 months while they build.
Will be very easy to rent anytime though.
The thing is that rental property investing is hard to beat, however it is not for everyone as you know.
Some people prefer the sharemarket and term Deposits as it doesn’t involve any work, however the returns are less!

Beautiful.

TM2, you commented "Seriously, NZ houses are not expenses overall" Are you taking the piss or something? Have you read the following article that hit the wires today? Are you willing to argue with those who analyze this stuff for a sizable living? Yeah I know, there's been many such warnings issued but, it's worth noting that despite a so called "flattening" of house prices since early 2017, these fact supported warnings are still being issued. It speaks volumes about how the rest of the world views the sustainability of using ever cheaper money to prevent the inevitable "reset" to more sustainable ratios/valuations.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=122...

TM2, reading your comment (I'll presume you're not joking) reminds me of how financial casualties often originate from the likes of yourself - the blissfully naive. Houseworks, Yvil and REA-Tothepoint, you're also welcome to be included if you feel left out ;-) Fret not for those FHB's. There will be plenty of bargains coming, rich partners not necessarily required. Plenty of Kings (Speculandlords) will be overthrown from their castles. It's happened before and it will happen again.

Retired poppy, if there is something on tv that you dont want to watch, should you:
A. change the channel to something you would rather watch
Or B. Yell loudly at the screen vainly hoping that the program changes itself

I love your nonsense comment so much that I will print it to hang on the toilet door. Some children grow up and still believe the scary stories and they lie awake too scared to go to sleep. In your case it's not the big bad wolf coming to get you. It's the property monster that ate your retirement nest egg.

LOL!, see, that's exactly why I included you in my comment above (^_-)

Well done!

Who's next?

RP yes I am serious when I say Nz Housing is not expensive.
Auckland is expensive, yes, but we are getting a minimum return on purchase price of 6% which is clearly more than borrowing interest rates.
The fact is RP you can think what you like, but it doesn’t alter the fact that you can buy for less than renting!
Reality is that the investors that are out there doing it, are doing rather nicely, and sitting around moaning and groaning is costing people big time, just like when many were saying we were going to have 40% price drops, and we know how wrong they certainly were!
While others were sitting on their hands, the intelligent investors were investing and clearly were doing the right thing!

Dp

Re The Spam 2s comment:
Hahahahahaha.... "deep breath to keep alive".....hahahahahahahahahaha.... "wipe tear from eye"...hahahahahaha!!!!!!

BacktoPerth, I would be more worried about house prices in Perth rather than NZ!
Each to their own and that is why successful investors do well!

Nah mate... you should be worried that the Titanic (or otherwise known as the NZ property market) is about to sink!!! Remember I just left NZ because of the extreme hardship...so that shit that you are spewing, is lost on me! I make double the wages and pay half the living costs compared to NZ... they know how to treat people over here...btw $300k brand new house in Eglinton Perth (4 x 2...2 bathrooms...220 sm). How much for shitboxes in racist ChCh again, The Spam 2???

With an attitude like yours, I can see why you are living in Perth.
Been to Perth and wouldn’t go back again as it is so isolated and pretty boring!
Don’t doubt you may be earning more over there as they need to pay well, to keep people living there!
Think you are stretching the truth when you say that living costs are half the cost in Perth, when I have lived briefly in Oz and have had family living there recently.
They hated it and have come back as things are not as rosey as you try to paint.
I am happy that you love it in Perth so much so, that you have to be commenting on a NZ site.
Eglinton is not Perth anyway!
It is 44km from Perth in the wop wops and I can see why rents and houses are so cheap as most people wouldn’t want to live there!

You havent answered my question The Spam 2! How much in racist Chch for a shitbox? I remember visiting Chch in my teens, and being chased by skinheads for the color of my skin...good times! Needless to say, like the movie 'the Greenbook', Maori people are taught to avoid Chch like the plague! Never had that issue in Perth....

Why bring in the racist card?
Personally haven’t had any problems, but yes there is racism in Nz being reverse racism, but then again we aren’t allowed to mention that are we?
There is equally as much racism in Oz as there is in Nz but that has got nothing to do with whether you are successful financially in NZ.
Many people leave NZ to go to Oz as they struggle but eventually come back to NZ.
If you are doing well in Perth then I am pleased for you, keep paying those taxes over there!

@BacktoPerth and @The Man 2, can I chip in?
"Personally haven’t had any problems" that's because you never venture down the hill from your gated home in Cashmere Hill (I am making assumption here as you sound like a Cashmere resident).
Remember the conversation we had while back? you mentioned that you never go down to South City shopping mall.. If you want the thrill of being chase on the boys with imitation Doc Martens boots, take the drive there...

'Personally haven't had problems with racism"... perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the "lighter shade of pale" skin doesn't really rile the skinhead infestations in racist Chch! I can assure 'the Scam 2' that there is a huge problem in Chch...just ask any brown person.

I agree, I am in the wrong shade as well and got few hassles in my last visit..
I read a review while back on one of those travel magazine.. The reviewer humorously stated that CHCH is a great city as long as you are in the right colour tone!

"If you want to own and you can not afford it in Auckland, then go somewhere else"
Are you kidding! Where are the jobs? Auckland

ICYMI, New Zealand at risk of a house price crash: Bloomberg,

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/114227809/new-zealand-at-risk-...

What are your thoughts?

The way that I see things.
Based on this article and my own recent experience, I will use a car analogy.
Vendors seem to drive the living daylights out of the car, let their mates and everyone else use it the way they want and then they want to sell off the tired husk to someone at top dollar, believing that purchasers are dumb enough to think they are getting a new car.

The fever haze has lifted and people are a lot more sober... especially when they are looking at buildings coming to the end of their lifetime. Even if one can afford the million dollar price tag, how many people do you know that can pluck out another 100k to deal with remediation and restoration?

Personally in think we are just expanding the million dollar slum.... at some point things will fail to stand up under its own weight. Literally and figuratively.

Bang on Jimmy Mackay.

ICYMI, FYI, regarding Ireland

https://youtu.be/FtbMAPcZ0Q0

What can happen to property prices in small towns where the local economy is dependent upon one key company, or one key industry.

This example is out of Western Australia.

https://youtu.be/4KyJeVHM7x8