Sales rates and prices edged higher at the latest housing auctions

Property

Could the latest auction results point to a firming housing market over summer?

28th Sep 19, 9:29am by Greg Ninness

The latest auction results suggest house prices may once again have started edging up.

Interest.co.nz monitored 173 residential auction results in the week from 15-21 September and recorded sales on 85 of them, giving an overall sales rate of 49%.

That is more or less consistent with the overall sales rates achieved over the last several weeks which have generally been around the 50% mark.

But what was surprising about the latest results was the high number of properties that sold for more than their rating valuations (RVs), which jumped up to 69% from around 50% over the last few weeks.

So is that an early pointer to higher prices as we head towards the more buoyant summer selling season?

It's probably too early to say one way or the other, but it's definitely something that's worth keeping an eye on.

The other interesting result was that there was virtually no difference between the sales rates or price trends in Auckland and the country as a whole.

The overall sales rate for the whole of New Zealand was 49% and in Auckland it was also 49%.

And while the national percentage of sales for more than their RVs was 69%, in Auckland it was slightly higher at 73%.

Again, too early to say it's the start of a trend, but you never know.

Details of the individual properties auctioned and the results of their auctions are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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78 Comments

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Sep 19, 12:49pm 1569631744

This is what I've been signalling here over the past few weeks.

We might well be in for more buoyant housing market activity with rising house prices over the next few months - and in 2020.

Let's wait and see.........

TTP

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 11:47am 1569628077

Indeed. However, we can't rule out significant further price decreases, which means there is every likelihood that we will see price decreases.

by Houseworks | 28th Sep 19, 12:29pm 1569630586

Listen very carefully .... you can make out a faint chirp which is the sound of the DGM slowly dying. We believe it belongs to the canary family, its habitat was mine shafts as well as the humble suburban backyard . We were hoping to save the DGM from extinction but it is threatened by the RBNZ (another kiwi icon) which has been lighting wild fires and liberally adding fuel thus creating an environment which is too warm for the DGM to handle.

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 12:32pm 1569630771

Very hard for the DGM to make a lot of noise when news like "24 auctions successfully sold at auction in a week, on average $13,500 below CV" coming out brings out the army of loud "spruiker-birds", who immediately proceed to drown out the possibility of any other noise.

by Nzdan | 28th Sep 19, 12:47pm 1569631620

Let's not also forget the CV is a 2017 figure, with inflation this "benchmark" should be easier to achieve.

by Houseworks | 28th Sep 19, 1:23pm 1569633803

Dozens of DGM birds have already died and those few remaining are expected to become frantic as competition from the dominant spruiker birds means that the dgm cannot find a suitable home in which to roost. Mainly because they are too fearful to spend time and resources looking but not helped by the blinkers they were born with.

by bw | 28th Sep 19, 3:04pm 1569639853

Perhaps the worst blinkers to be born with have a label on the inside that says "Property ALWAYS goes up!!.". Spruiker Birds appear to need them on to fly, or maybe that's waddle, with the flock in only one direction.
There is nothing more certain than..nothing is certain, and for those that believe that today's World will be a mirror image of the one we've had for the last 40 odd years, I'll suggest that they are in for a shock.
Interest rates aren't low for the benefit of property speculators; they're low because 'things' are so bad that the market cannot be allowed to function properly to ascertain a feasible balanced level for them to encourage productive growth.
And in terms of the old adage "Buy low, Sell high" those who've ridden the crest of the asset waves for nearly half a century aren't buying more - they are selling.

by Houseworks | 28th Sep 19, 4:21pm 1569644460

You say the last 40 years bw, you mean at least the last 200 years in nz history (yes properties changed hands then too) and if you cant go that far back then at least go back to the 1950s and 60s... not 1979. There has been other times when interest rates were low too. One thing I am CERTAIN about is I prefer to own a house than rent a house....living in ones own house provides far more certainty.

by bw | 28th Sep 19, 4:29pm 1569644992

Why 40 years? Because that's roughly when 'the rules changed'. Before that we had a fixed Exchange Rate and Exchange Controls to decide what we could and couldn't buy and sell as a country - remember that?. If you wanted to buy a house you had to have a minimum 30% deposit; no more than 30% of the household gross income ( usually the solitary man's income) tied up in loan servicing, and if you wanted to buy another house - trade up in other words, you had to sell the one you had to meet the foregoing requirements or have saved enough from you day-job. Property Investment as we know it today didn't exist for most New Zealanders (or other property-mad countries of today). And what has happened, by and large, since that time? Interest rates have fallen, and fallen, and fallen to accommodate speculation (why else would they?!) And let's remember that before then, property prices didn't rise at all in the 1800s for 70 years, then when they 'took off' ( the Gold Rush here and Aussie) they collapsed within a decade to lose 90% of their value; value that didn't get recovered until after the 2nd World War.
So yes, property prices have risen over time, but there are whole generations of our past societies that didn't live long enough to see the 'benefit' Likely, something similar is in the offing today, because as I see it, the capacity to 'lower rates' has just about run its course.....

by CN | 28th Sep 19, 10:08pm 1569665324

"you mean at least the last 200 years in nz history"

Yes property prices have risen for the last 200 years of history all over the world. That would be fine if all property purchases were required to be financed with no debt or very low LVR's (say 30%). The fact is that most property owners need to finance their purchase with large amounts of debt, and despite property prices rising over centuries, many property owners have lost their house due to the lack of financial flexibility to meet debt repayments under ALL economic conditions. In times of a strong economy and easy availability of credit, more people will take on debts that seem serviceable at the time, then something happens and they find that they are unable to maintain the required payments under the loan contract terms - if there is a sufficient number of households in this situation, then a large number of houses can be listed for sale (which can represent opportunities for buyers who recognise Ron Hoy Fong's Seven D's). If a sufficiently large number of households are highly leveraged, that increases the vulnerability and fragility of the financial system especially if household debt is a large component of a banks loan portfolio.

There are numerous examples in history -
1) the GFC in 2008/2009, and the house owners who were forced to sell - numerous cases in Ireland, United States, UK, Spain. There were quite a few cases in New Zealand.
2) numerous other cases throughout history - UK in early 1990's, Finland in early 1990's, Sweden in early 1990's, Singapore in late 1990's, Hong Kong in late 1990's, commercial property in Auckland in early 1990's.
3) Great Depression in 1930's globally

by Nzdan | 28th Sep 19, 11:16pm 1569669377

Equity is a great tool for leverage if you can find someone who will lend against it. Banks have been willing to lend against equity for some time now. What happens if that equity disappears before the loan is paid off? This includes subsequent "investment properties" that have been purchased using equity recycling for a deposit. Shouldn't be too much of a problem if investors are paying down some principal from their returns instead of focusing on net yield via interest only mortgages right?

by CJ099 | 28th Sep 19, 3:13pm 1569640431

Mean while we can watch the big footed booby bird prance about over his small hand full of sold properties, most of which have marginally scraped by their CV's. It's still very low volume and low auction sale results no matter how much you try to repackage it. :)

by Shoreman | 29th Sep 19, 4:14pm 1569726848

Houseworks - I noticed that RP seems very quiet. Pushing TD's is not fashionable in this climate.
The Auckland market is finding it's feet and by this time next year it will be clearly tracking up.
The crash many were pushing on here was nothing but Scandalous hoping the market would tumble to justify their own mistakes not buying in the past.
For those who are still waiting on the sidelines this winter was the peak of best buying opportunities, the next drop in prices is 7 years away from new heights.
I have taken the opportunity in this dip to purchase 3 more properties.
Once you have monitored the market for 40 odd years it is easy to see the pattern of cycles, everything has happened before.
There will always be people who act and people who don't, many waste time and energy looking for the what if's, look around your own circle of friends,family, work buds and so the results of staying on the sidelines !

by Houseworks | 29th Sep 19, 6:37pm 1569735439

"I have taken the opportunity in this dip to purchase 3 more properties." Well done you.
Yes some have gone either very very quiet or non-existent thank goodness. Their meltdown message was fake (yes I know nothing is impossible but that's extremely extreme) and I suspect done with a personal motive.

by Yvil | 30th Sep 19, 8:46am 1569786395

RIP

by printer8 | 28th Sep 19, 12:16pm 1569629782

TTP
You have been indicating that stance for some time and have taken some cr*p from some on this site.
While I don't see this necessarily as a definite sign that the Auckland market has bottomed, one can take it as a positive indicator and wait for future data.
To me, a further positive indicator of the Auckland market showing some stability - three years after passing the peak - is that the "bubble burst" posts have all but disappeared.
Probably another good indicator is that in negotiations, the purchaser will not be likely making a big issue as to the direction of the market as a negotiating point on price.

If the Auckland market does shows some continuing positive trend over the next few months, I trust that those who threw the cr*p at you apologise. But don't hold your breath on that one.

by Somebloke | 28th Sep 19, 5:07pm 1569647224

Ok heres one. Your bubble has burst. Even the staunchest vendors holding out for bubble purchase prices are now capitulating.

by Voiceofreason | 29th Sep 19, 3:17pm 1569723453

TTP, the RBNZ is certainly doing its best to produce a “more buoyant housing market”, but wise investors will be being cautious here, with affordability still rated a “severely unaffordable” in global terms, and the global economic outlook not great for 2020. Hardly a great time to buy NZ property. Best stay on the sidelines for NZ and Australian property and look elsewhere for opportunities. Gold has done very well this year by the way, as a hedge in the meantime.

by am_fek | 30th Sep 19, 1:26pm 1569803181

It obviously didn't sink in the last time I made this fairly obvious point, so here it is again: RBNZ does not make its OCR decisions based on housing market conditions. Please stop perpetuating this conspiracy theory. The OCR was raised twice right before the GFC when it was clear that the housing market was soft.
As for "avoid real estate, buy gold", good lord that just about takes the blue ribbon as a genuinely bad take.

by Basil brush | 28th Sep 19, 10:11am 1569622303

Its a long bow to draw conclusions on the property market with this one data point. Volumes and sale prices from transactions of all sale methods would be useful to draw an insight. Some people around Auckland are talking about only 'hot to trot' properties being brought to auction.

by printer8 | 28th Sep 19, 12:01pm 1569628896

Basil Brush
I agree that this is no more than a possible indicator but it is one that is worthy of note in that it isn't one indicating doom and gloom and bubble burst.
For those involved in any market - whether it be equities or housing - the ones who do best are those that enter early rather than later. It is so, so easy to pick the direction of a market in hindsight.
So is this data a certainty of the market in Auckland having bottomed and on its way up? Of course not.
Should FHB take note and start to act? Well, if I was in that situation I would start becoming active in looking for a house with some confidence (especially with the low mortgage rates this week) and noting future data such as Core Logic and REINZ data.

P.S. My prediction for well over a year or so that there wasn't going to be a bubble burst, that the national market would see some growth albeit 2 or 3% p.a. I also see the Auckland market at least being relatively stable as there are still some very important drivers there (lower interest rates, immigration, and housing shortage) and not at risk of either a bubble burst or long term deflation. For FHB, if getting the very best price is the prime consideration (but which should be only one of a number of factors), then moves in the market are likely to be now a less significant factor than either buying well or poorly.

by Trapped Millennial | 28th Sep 19, 10:21am 1569622913

Property market will stay stable until an external force hits us (global recession). The lowering of interest rates are not providing the full force they usually would.

by printer8 | 28th Sep 19, 12:31pm 1569630660

Hi Trapped Millennial
You may not like this comment.
I take it from both your pseudonym and the nature of comment that you are possibly young and most likely have yet to purchase a first home.
If I have that correct, then given the data was reasonably positive, it seems that you have shifted from a "bubble burst" to "external forces" as a reason not to commit to buy a home.
Ask yourself if you are using the uncertainty of the market as an excuse from getting off your chuff and really committing to it.
And, buying a house hasn't never been easy for any generation or at any time so don't go down that line.
In the past three years over 75,000 FHB have purchased a home and neither the market not interest rates have resulted in a flood of mortgagee sales and I suspect that they are fairly confident of being able to face changes in either.

by John Smith | 28th Sep 19, 1:15pm 1569633310

Hi Printer8 as a millennial I thought I'd respond to the getting off your chuff comment which I think is a little harsh.

I'm not sure on your debt or willingness to be in debt but for millenials and anyone buying a house these days you have to have a high risk profile and be willing to bet on low interest rates for quite some time.

It is in my opinion much harder to now but a house due to the mental barrier of the massive debt you are to take on. I know other generations have had high interest rates but buying in Auckland in the current climate with the pay most millennials get is either extremely difficult or unachievable.

When we bought I tried hard to not look at it as an investment instead as a home to live in that I can do to it what I want. I think FHB's need to look at the unmeasurable benefits of purchasing if they can service the mortgage if rates go to 6+ because in the long term and most are in it for the long term it is worth it despite GFCs

by printer8 | 28th Sep 19, 2:03pm 1569636223

A little harsh . . . ? Blunt yes, but then one needs to be when someone is grasping at all reasons to simply avoid responsibility. In my day it was called needing a kick in the b’m.
I acknowledge that it isn’t easy but 75,000 FHB (including yourself) have got off their chuffs and got on with life.
I am pleased that you note that it is a home and not an investment (the first house is a home, the second an investment). Whatever the housing market or the economy does in the short term, as long as one ensures that they can service their mortgage, it is irrelevant. In the longer term you are going to be far better off for both intrinsic and financial reasons.
To really ensure security I would be looking at paying the mortgage down as quickly as possible and accept that overseas holiday for the family is put on hold for the time being.
TM doesn’t seem to want commit to this and the reality for him/her is that in a decade they risk regrets when they look to people such as yourself - but it is most likely have nothing to do with a housing bubble burst or imploding economy. For this reason a kick in the b’m is in their best interest.

by frazz | 28th Sep 19, 3:05pm 1569639903

What a self entitled boomer...yes buy a house you lazy millennial on your $50k wage..pay of that student loan, and stop being so self entitled. Just dont expect to have kids yet you both need to work hard and pay down that mortgage. No holidays or smashed Avo either.

by Trapped Millennial | 28th Sep 19, 3:06pm 1569639975

Got a decent deposit. Got a decent job. My deposit currently earns me more then I pay in rent. I literally think a external shock will hurt the market. If it takes next 2-3 years I am OK with that. Rent is offset and deposit is climbing by 50k per year.

My name is based on not wanting a debt chain around my neck but I know I will have to. My new thinking for when I do buy is a 20% deposit at all time and keep drawing excess equity to invest for wealth creation. But that purchase won't be for a year or 2.

by Houseworks | 28th Sep 19, 4:14pm 1569644095

It's good that you're focused on your savings goal TM. 50k pa is really good but house prices can easily go up that much and more. If you already have enough deposit I would not wait another 1 to 2ish years if I were you.

by frazz | 29th Sep 19, 10:00am 1569704440

I would wait in till next year and keep saving...too many black swan indicators. Don't listen to these commentators who had it easy paying off there home in under 10 years when wages were 3 x.

by printer8 | 28th Sep 19, 4:37pm 1569645475

Well good on you Trapped Millennial; great to hear, you are doing better than I assumed, have a financial plan, so well done and all the best.

However, just one thing regarding your dire assumptions about an external shock hitting and hurting the (housing?) market.
What puzzles me is that you are alarmed that while this external shock will hurt the (housing?) market, your investments are seemingly immune.
This significant external shock that you talk of, is going to first most likely hit the over-reactive share market both suddenly and significantly - consider that the time period is likely to be in measured in terms of days rather than many months or years. Term deposits are going to head south as central banks further cut cash rates and - as you are talking dire circumstances - possibly into negative territory so you may well face negative interest rates, or even possibly as banks struggle, your term deposits could get a haircut. All of this means a loss of considerable amounts of your investments - think 1987 share market crash.
Likely? Well, it is you and not me predicting external shocks.

Cheers, enjoy the rest of the weekend and sleep happy for it all may never happen.

by Yvil | 28th Sep 19, 9:08pm 1569661688

Buying a house is not just about being able to afford it, it's also very much about the emotional courage to do it. I'd like to quote Joseph Murphy from his book "the power of your subconscious mind"

"Many people are full of fears and doubts, when an opportunity comes they say: "What if I fail? I might lose my money, people will laugh at me." People of this sort will not get very far in life. Their fear to go forward makes them simply stay where they are"

TM, be very careful not to drop into this category, you will always find a reason why it's not a good time to buy a house, at some stage you must be brave. Same applies to Milky1

by Yvil | 28th Sep 19, 8:58pm 1569661115

Hi TM, saving $50k pa is great, well done. I have doubts about your claim that
"My deposit currently earns me more then I pay in rent"
Assuming you pay $400 in rent = $20'800 pa
For your deposit to earn more it would have to be say 4% interest - tax = 3% net so $20'800/3% = $693'000.
If you really have about $700k deposit, you should buy a house

by Due Diligence | 28th Sep 19, 9:37pm 1569663453

Flatting perhaps...

by Yvil | 28th Sep 19, 10:09pm 1569665392

True, maybe flatting.
Still even if flatting and paying $200 pw = $350'000 at 4% interest to yield more than the rent paid, enough for a good deposit for a first house

by Houseworks | 29th Sep 19, 11:35am 1569710130

TM could be invested in that new investment .... daylight savings, I hear it's a night vs day choice..

by Trapped Millennial | 28th Sep 19, 10:59pm 1569668394

Investments are mostly in counter cyclical areas such as gold. Some lucky stocks that I have been allowed to invest in which has also done well. Currently made 14k this calendar year. Rent is $310 (new plymouth). I understand owning a home is also an emotional journey but will do on my own terms. Having kids in a couple of years will prob swing me a little. Or the new nagging wife haha.

Also the external shock coming will hamper the property market. I don't need a crash, just uncertainty to create doubt I'm sellers minds. If the RBNZ drops everything to extend the market (negative rates and QE) then I will buy as it will be foolhardy not.

by Trapped Millennial | 28th Sep 19, 10:59pm 1569668395

by printer8 | 29th Sep 19, 7:42pm 1569739373

Careful TM
When I hear comments that one has been “allowed” (I.e. chosen) to invest in some “lucky” unspecified stocks with exceptional returns the alarm bells go off very, very loud as it has every hallmark of a scam. Either that or I think that there is a bit of bull or naivety.
However, you are convinced of where you are at, they are your choices, you are confident with them, and you live with the outcomes whether they be good or bad.

by Nzdan | 28th Sep 19, 4:17pm 1569644227

I bought a little over 2 years ago at 4x the median wage but in order to do that I now commute 4 hours a day by train. It’s definitely worthwhile for me when factoring in job/pay/employer.

by printer8 | 28th Sep 19, 4:35pm 1569645338

Nzdan
Well done
But remember that your first home is a stepping stone and not the home for life. Clearly you appreciate that the reality of FHB is to compromise on either socio-economic suburb or commuting distance but that it is just that - a stepping stone which is likely to be only for a few years.

by Nzdan | 29th Sep 19, 10:20am 1569705624

Thank you! Absolutely, it's a stepping stone. We've been extremely fortunate to buy at a very similar house price to income multiple as 20 - 30 years ago except today interest rates are record low.

by Dgm | 28th Sep 19, 10:36am 1569623791

Global economy slowing, house building rising, end result will be fun to watch

by Averageman | 28th Sep 19, 10:48am 1569624538

Agree. Pressure for occupy the 39000 empty houses as well. Banks are restricting lending. Buffit is building a massive vulture fund to pick the bone of the coming global debt reset.

Only the truly blind cant see the music slowing.

by Dgm | 28th Sep 19, 10:53am 1569624824

Speculators are like drug addicts, they consume without any reasoning... unaware and unsure of future affects

by Glitzy | 28th Sep 19, 3:52pm 1569642738

You can't actually see music whether you're fully or partially sighted ;)

by Averageman | 28th Sep 19, 6:56pm 1569653805

Sheet music, computer digital amp representation etc etc.

by andreas_od | 29th Sep 19, 7:46pm 1569739619

How would you imagine the “debt reset “ look like?

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 10:51am 1569624705

A grand total of 23 successful auctions in Auckland over the last week. We truly are kicking into a higher gear now, possibly one higher than seen before in any property market the world over.

by Glitzy | 28th Sep 19, 11:27am 1569626865

"Could the latest auction results point to a firming housing market over summer?"

Or could we be swimming towards the oversupply in new builds tipping the market ?

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 11:46am 1569627980

I looked at the last week of auctions in Auckland. Like I said above, there were a total of 23 successful actions. 14 of them were above CV, and 9 were below. So that is a little over 60% that were above CV.

The actual differences between CVs and sales prices tell a different story. The total CV of the 23 properties was $27,730,000. The total of the sales prices was $27,418,500. So in total, CVs were $311,500 above actual sales prices, meaning on average each property dropped about $13,500 from CV.

by Houseworks | 28th Sep 19, 1:01pm 1569632507

I dont know whether or not your figures are accurate I will take your word. That leaves another 3 quarters of sales or 62 properties outside of Auckland. So whether or not Auckland is doing exceptionally well is a moot point as it is only a fraction of the overall market. Do you have any other analysis GGP?

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 1:09pm 1569632968

I live in Auckland and I'm looking for a property in Auckland, so it's not really a moot point for me. If you want to do the other analysis for the other cities, you're more than welcome. I think it's fairly clear overall that other cities are still doing well and I have no interest in disputing that.

by Houseworks | 28th Sep 19, 4:09pm 1569643750

GGP One minute you are saying "...there is every likelihood of significant further price decreases...", then "I'm looking for a property". That's thrown me, your seemingly opposite positions. I am not surprised you are looking to buy, buying the dips is a good strategy and if it was me I would get in without delay.

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 9:46pm 1569663972

The "every likelihood" thing was just a joke. TTP was adamant the other day that "can't rule it out" is the same thing as "every likelihood it will happen", so I applied his logic. Classic banter, I know you know about that.

I am looking. Squeezing in a couple of open homes a week. Not sure about the "without delay" part, but if I see a good deal I will definitely jump on it.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Sep 19, 4:58pm 1569646726

You have to be very wary of properties that sell dramatically below CV. Usually subdivides or an error.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Sep 19, 5:40pm 1569649259

There looks like a terrible error in the reporting today. 45 Pohutukawa Road, has an RV of $1,295,000 and not $2,625,000 as shown in the auction results. This, I believe, is because 45 Pohutukawa, Beachlands RV has been used instead of Whenuapai .

This will devastate GGP's sums above. Sorry about that!

I usually exclude apartments when doing these calculations.
My results for the week are 20 properties sold with an RV of $25,480 and sale price of $26,685. 13 sold above RV and 7 below. This is about 4.7% above RV which was pretty typical of auctions in late 2017, early 2018.

Properties on average gained $60,250 each.

by Nzdan | 28th Sep 19, 5:39pm 1569649168

(´･_･`)

by CJ099 | 28th Sep 19, 8:24pm 1569659081

( - _ - ) ... z z z Z Z Z

by Zachary Smith | 28th Sep 19, 10:31pm 1569666691

Come on, who would go through the sales/RVs and not raise an eyebrow when they saw an average home sale that was $1,440,00 below RV?

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 9:42pm 1569663730

Good catch on 45 Pohutakawa Road. I didn't want to go to the trouble of individually confirming each CV, but I guess now that we've done that, we should also go through and check which of the ones that sold above CV were renovated, right?

Don't worry, I just did it.

51 Arran Road had a "stunning make-over", so that's out. 2 Matangi Road was described in its ad as "fully renovated", so that doesn't count. 47 Livingstone Street was "extended and upgraded", so see ya. At 15 Bond Street, apparently "all the hard work has been done", so I take that to mean renovations, too. 6 Birchwood Grove was sold "following substantial renovation", so can't count that. 318 Rangatira Road was "newly refurbished and finally 35 Ramelton Road was described as including a few "elegant touches".

I see no reason to exclude any of the apartments. I will still count 45 Pohutukawa Road, but with its correct CV.

There are now 16 properties remaining with which to make a fair comparison. 9 sold below CV, and 7 sold above CV. The total for CVs is now $17,385,000 and the total sales prices was $17,344,000. So in the end, total sales prices were $41,000 below total CVs, which comes out to a marginal loss for each property. About $2,500 each.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Sep 19, 10:33pm 1569666808

I think apartments should be excluded as they are often leasehold. Also it's quite a different market but that's just my opinion. I wouldn't include leasehold houses either, would you?

You seem to be reacting like an RV that is 1.3M out is a small affair but it is significant as it is an obvious error and can't be included. True that price/RV doesn't mean a huge amount as there is much we don't really know but it was you that brought it up first and did "calculations".But whatever I do agree that price indications show things to be fairly ho hum as I intimated in my comment about prices above RV being about the same as in late 2017. The average around 4.7% above RV was a common result back then I will know the market has really turned if we see it regularly above or below 15-20%. When I played this game a lot ,offending the statisticians, it was just about the trajectory of the final average above RV figure over a period of time that interested me.

It should be remembered, and everyone forgets this, but the 2017 RVs were considered at the time as being rather staggeringly high as they were struck during a market high. My house was almost 800k over-valued and it was a below average house for the area.

by GGP | 28th Sep 19, 10:45pm 1569667534

I don't think it's accurate to say apartments are "often" leasehold, but I don't know the statistics on that. I am mostly looking at the apartment market and very few of the ones I see for sale are leasehold. Obviously if they were leaseholds, and I was doing this calculation fully properly, I wouldn't count them. From my understanding the CV is based on the freehold value so it would just be a nonsensical calculation.

My calculation was obviously not meant to be especially accurate. I spent as little time on it as possible. I noticed one of the differences was especially large, but I did not look specifically at any of the numbers. You are right that it is significant, but I would say any renovations that occurred since the CV was calculated are also relevant. And the more of these factors you take into account, the less useful this whole comparison becomes because you end up looking at a sample size of like 3 properties.

It wasn't me that brought it up first and did calculations - it's what the article is about. I just tried to add a little more context to the very general number of just the percentage of properties that sold above/below CV.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Sep 19, 11:01pm 1569668511

Fair enough and good luck with the house hunting. Look out for vendors that are moving to retirement homes and have had their house for twenty years or more I reckon.

by Averageman | 29th Sep 19, 9:29am 1569702559

Indeed. 160 Campbell road. CV 2.8. Sold 1.96

by bw | 28th Sep 19, 7:28pm 1569655716

(Mauldin) https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/quantum-economics

It is increasingly obvious that conventional monetary policy is useless now that rates have been so low for so long, and everyone believes they will remain low. Nothing the central banks do incentivizes anyone to make immediate growth-generating decisions. If you need to borrow money, you likely did it long ago. Bad things are going to happen.... I really see no other way out....An economy in which near-zero interest rates can’t spur more investment than that is an economy with serious problems. And I expect them to get worse, not better...

by Ex Expat | 28th Sep 19, 8:18pm 1569658688

As of 22/9 Core Logic have my home at 97.8% of CV. Based on sales concluded over the last two weeks I expect that will change to > 100%, possibly held back by sales of two leaky townhouses. Properties in $2.25 million plus range seem to be selling if priced at about CV.

by Nzdan | 28th Sep 19, 11:53pm 1569671639

Core Logic have my place at 136% of CV as of 22/9 on 2017 CV.

by Ex Expat | 29th Sep 19, 7:18pm 1569737927

Wairarapa is a bit of a commute to the Auckland CBD. Even then I can’t relate to four hours per day. Do you work on the train?

by Nzdan | 30th Sep 19, 6:20am 1569777658

Yes, or read interest.co. It makes sense financially. I won’t need to be commuting to the office as often in the very near future.

by Averageman | 29th Sep 19, 9:27am 1569702434

Interestingly this headline is at odds with this industry owned mouthpiece.
https://m.oneroof.co.nz/news/36755

by GGP | 29th Sep 19, 10:08am 1569704931

The easy rule of thumb is to remember that any headline phrased as a question can always be correctly answered with "no". Using that technique, the headlines are pretty similar.

by THE MAN 2 | 29th Sep 19, 5:09pm 1569730197

NZ house prices are still very good value.
Have been in Europe over the last few weeks and I can assure you we are still very cheap for what we get for our money.
Looked in a real estate office in Munich and 2 bedroom apartments were approx.1 million euros so about 2 million NZD.
Standalone house on a section was 5 million euro or $10 million NZD.
I am sure there are some cheaper but apparently only 20% own their own homes and 80% rent life time.

by frazz | 29th Sep 19, 5:16pm 1569730567

Yes travelling to CHCH next month...first time in about 10 years. Hated it then but with the rebuild and comments from the MAN I expect it to be very similar to Munich. Will bring my cheque book to buy up.

by mikekirk29 | 29th Sep 19, 5:58pm 1569733082

Risible. Houses in UK and France and Germany have the merit of being made of STONE or brick mostly.
A terrace made of stone and brick in Derbyshire is $410k.
Stanmore Bay has wooden shacks in disrepair priced at $630k.
You are being highly selective and misleading.
NZ is cited by OECD sources as being in top 3 most over-priced property markets in world.
Sales in Auckland have fallen 30% in 5 years between censuses at same time as stock available rose 6.5%.
Not because it's too expensive of course....

by RickStrauss | 30th Sep 19, 10:00am 1569790829

Munich property ‘biggest bubble risk in Europe’, experts say
...

The average price per square metre in the city is €7,630, dwarfing the €2,993 in Germany as a whole.

Prices have risen so steeply, in fact, that a report by UBS considers Munich to be the biggest bubble risk in Europe.

Interesting comparison. Funnily enough, property transfer tax in Munich is 3.5 per cent, suggesting folk here need to harden up a bit.

https://www.ft.com/content/9ba4873a-60f3-11e9-9300-0becfc937c37

Although these prices (relative to local salaries) still make some ads we see for Auckland housing look steep:

Semi-detachted houses with on average 160 m² were at about 1.16 million EUR, mid-terrace houses with 123 m² at around 870.000 EUR, end terrace houses with 134 m² on average were also at ca. 935.000 EUR.

by mikekirk29 | 29th Sep 19, 5:52pm 1569732745

More buoyant compared to what period exactly?
Sales were lower in 2017 than in 2016.
Sales were higher in 2018 than 2017 solely because of front running OBB in Auckland
Sales in 2019 have resumed EXACTLY same level as in 2017.
Apartment sales in first 7 months of 2019 were 31% lower than in 2018.

Bear in mind that stock has risen in last 2 years and interest rates have fallen, whilst immigration is barely altered.
So, why are sales not recovering?
3m trend compared to 7m trend in many areas is worse, compared to 12m earlier.
It is a little early to be speculating re Summer when we are 1 week past the equinox (correct start of "Spring")

by RickStrauss | 30th Sep 19, 10:01am 1569790910

Hope you don't end up cramping the celebrations further up too much.

by Dgm | 29th Sep 19, 9:49pm 1569746967

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/116152134/auckland-council-annual-repor...

Despite the record cccs, the emphasis is on improving performance, as they can see the huge numbers in the pipeline