No capital gains in Auckland with median prices there lower than they were two years ago - REINZ

No capital gains in Auckland with median prices there lower than they were two years ago - REINZ
Invercargill. Annual capital growth in Southland was 20.5% in the three months to August. Photo: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:MSeses

Housing prices are increasing at a slower rate than they were 12 months ago, according to the latest Capital Gains Report from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

The report shows that the median selling prices of homes sold in the three months to the end of August were higher than they were in the same three month period of last year in 13 of the REINZ's 16 sales districts and lower in three: Auckland -1.5%, Marlborough - 2.2% and West Coast -11.1%.

The biggest gains compared to last year were in Manawatu-Whanganui +23.0%, Southland +20.5% and Gisborne +15.6%.

However, in the majority of regions the rate of growth had slowed compared to last year.

The median price growth rate in the three months to August was lower compared to the same  period of last year in nine regions, higher in six and unchanged in one (see table below).

The market was particularly weak in Auckland with the region-wide median price in the three months to August lower than it was in the same three month period of both 2018 and 2017.

Median price growth was weaker in all districts of Auckland except Papakura and Franklin on the city's southern flank (see second table below).

Median price growth has slowed throughout the upper North Island, with Northland's rate slowing to 3.2% from 8.6% last year, Waikato was down to 2.0% from 8.5% last year and Bay of Plenty was 3.5% from 7.5% last year.

Even Wellington, which has been one of the strongest markets, recorded median price growth of 8.6% compared to 13.7% last year.

The areas that showed the strongest median price growth tended to be those where prices were still relatively cheap compared to main centres, such as Southland which recorded 20.5% median price growth in the three months to August compared to 3.8% in the same period of last year, and Manawatu/Whanganui with 23% price median price growth compared to 8.9% a year ago.

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REINZ Capital Gains by Region - Three Months to August

REINZ Auckland Capital Gains by District - Three Months to August

 

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Meh, median prices again. "Falling" median price in Auckland is not indicative of change in price of any given house, it just the decimation of higher value property sales. I'll trust the HPI.. Auckland prices basically going sideways for the last 2 years.

True. HPI not out yet it seems? But the decimation of the higher priced sales is also an interesting market phenomenon at the moment.

HPI was down in Auckland last month.

So, positive news for prospective first home buyers. Will be interesting to see October though, yeah.

Market sentiment positive since early october - So October and November data going forward will be interesting as should be positive and if not than further fall is imminenet if it was just a dead cat bounce.

Decimation of higher value property would affect the mean not the median.

You probably want to rethink that statement...

... it seems accurate to say that falling prices at the top end would affect the average or mean price .. .. but not alter the ones in the middle of the entire market price range , the median ..

Fewer top end sales would reduce the median (and the average). Pragmatist said "decimation of higher value property sales" so I think that's what he meant.

Yaha.
How I read it, too..

Only provided the number of sales transactions was unchanged... decimation of higher value property sales implies a change in the number of transactions.
To me, at least..

No, they said values would be decimated, not sales. Decimated as in "to reduce by one in ten" technically.

"decimation of higher value property sales"
That implies a reduction in high end sales volume. This is especially the interpretation when Prag is referencing the effect on median value.

"decimation in the value of high end property sales"
This would imply a decrease in the value but not volumes..

OK, but Ocelot didn't say"decimation of higher value property sales". They said decimation of higher value property, and the fact that in the very same sentence they said this would affect the mean not the median clearly shows that they are thinking of price, not volume.

Hence why I said they need to rethink their statement in the context of the original post.

11
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Interesting to see the comparison in the second table showing the Auckland's 2017 median prices in comparison to today's results. Not surprising that the so called desirable or exclusive inner suburb areas are on the decline and the more affordable areas are increasing back to their original 2017 CV price. Well that's what happen when you only have wage earners as buyers and not huge amounts of dodgy money pouring in from overseas.

16
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but, nah.

Only 3% of sales were to foreign buyers. Nw zilunds best real estate agent Juankey told us so lots of times...

Interesting that the DGM's usual knee-jerk reaction is to mock and scorn the REINZ........

But when it suits them, no criticism is forthcoming.

Surprise, surprise.

TTP

LOL Agent Ttp, Run out of juice have you in your exaggerations. No mocking here, only funny part is you and how you don't like people pointing out straightforward facts that are starting you in the face. :)

What makes the poster a DGM? If you must use that derisive term, I expect that it at least comes are a doomy gloomy comment.

Certainly I view the RBNZ results as being fairly positive and a logic out come considering the large and rapid reductions in mortgage rates that are supporting price growth in affordable ares, that are selling for less than a million. As for the so called exclusive multi million dollar homes, Well again it's logical that they're not selling much and likely will continue to stagnate until they drop back down to reality. :)

Hi CJ
I have noticed that you talk about multimillion dollar homes every couple of days, wishing for them to drop in price to "reality". You must really have your heart set on getting one... put out the glass of milk and cookies on christmas eve ready for the big guy to drop in

LOL HW. I already have an Auckland home! You really need to take your blinkers off and actually look at our economy, the evidence is there for all to see. :)

You are such a tease CJ... obviously your home is not one of those multi-million ones you constantly drool over.

LOL HW. Firstly; my point is it's about our economy and how there isn't one really in Auckland, that creates high risk, relying on overseas money that is now largely gone. Secondly; Why on earth would I want to live in a so called multi million dollar neighborhood in Auckland when we know that they're full of money launders and gang members! You seem to forget who you've sold these properties to, here's a few reminders: NZ Herald: Luxury cars, Remuera houses worth $7.3m seized in money laundering probe https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12262814
Article Stuff: Gang issues spark fear at upmarket Auckland apartment complex https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/113002598/gang-issues-spark-fear-...

According to many in the comments on this site, anyone who says anything positive about lower housing prices is a 'DGM' and anyone that says anything positive about higher house prices is a 'Spruiker'. Both are derogatory and both need to go, but that won't happen here. Too many people are have a vested interest one way or the other. Granted it makes the comments somewhat interesting. I mostly lurk here, specifically because I'm afraid to make my feelings on any housing topic known for fear of the backlash I'll get from one side (or the other)..

This looks like bullpaki driven by emotion.

Folk have been reasonably discussing REINZ data on here for at least the last few years.

Muh capital gains!

Cue the pointless dissection of a single meaningless data point.

um, isn't that the whole raison d'être for this site in general?

Less demand. Prices fall. Not a surprise.
Also, many people having to reduce their asking prices in order to get a sale, also reducing settlement price.

Section sales down 41% in first 9m of 2019 in Auckland, compared to 2018 for same period.
As overseas buyers were only supposed to be buying 3% of Auckland stuff, this needs some other explanation?
Any offers?
Apartment sales down 31%
Residential only sales down 11.5%
Lifestyle block sales down 15%

That is a lot less demand and a lot less money circulating in local economy.

In NZ as a whole section sales in first 9m of 2017 were 6812
In 2019 it was 2758. That is 59.5% down in 2 years.
All that is pressing down on land prices.
Auckland section 2017-19 drop was 23%
It was huge surge in land sales (sections) in 2014-16 that drove up prices due to increase in demand for land.
This is now over.
Locals are a lot less able (and a lot less numerous) to afford $450k for a section in Red Beach for example.
In Orewa section sales have fallen 86% in first 9m of 2019, compared to 2018.
People seem to like repeating the theme that there is a shortage of housing being built in Auckland.
And a shortage of land to rebuilt on.
This is not true. And the surplus of both is about to drag prices down, from March 2020 onwards, as people start to cut prices to offload stock.

"Any offers?" Could it be that the National Party were actually telling porkies about the 3% Foreign Buyer Figure!? The figures clearly point to much, much higher FB spending going on before the Foreign Buyer Ban. [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡ʘ ͜ʖ ͡ʘ)̲̅$̲̅]

Just remember, the civilised world is running on triple debt, the Chinese are running on corporate debt, which is defaulting as we speak, while most of the others are still running on guns.

Not to mention all the dodgy money sloshing around China's Shadow Banking world currently at $8.4 trillion. Here's a recent article from the FT that highlights the issue of their maintain financial stability. FT article: China’s shadow banking industry roars back
https://www.ft.com/content/4c66b622-dea5-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

wellington Boom Boom, Auckland zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

He he, yes one city has an economy and the other one. Eeerrr.... well best not talk about that, just pull the rug over it and hope that no one notices the gaping economy hole. ;)

the gaps are already noticeable, but there are a select few who choose to ignore

I disagree. People import is a key industry, core to the city in discussion, that has been dragging our economy along for half a decade now.

Suggest you go look at some reasonably priced properties in Auckland, it's not Zzzz, if its any good the agents have multiple offers after the first weekend of open homes. If its under $800k and not moving, its either a complete pile of poo, or the price is really over the top.

I've noticed a few houses in Meadowbank near me sell quite quickly in the last 1-2 weeks. Have no idea on prices, but places seem to be moving quicker.

Seems like that case? I follow this real estate team and they sold a plaster home in Remuera in 2 weeks for a price above CV - https://nzpremiumhomes.com/52c-koraha-street-for-owners

Good times back again? But other properties still stuck on the market. We shall see.

Why isn't there a median price growth figure for NZ as a whole?

Southland up 20%. The owner was quite delighted.

MikeKirk, how are you personally finding the market with the properties that you have listed?
Are you getting many people thru your “open homes”?
Are your vendors having to reduce their expectations?
What areas do you have listings In??

Fantastic news! The dropping of the pricing, spurred by human greed, will allow the 'have nots' to be able to have a chance! Another 20-30% would be grand!

Are we really that diffrunt? I won't be buying until I see some global stability, or affordability improving substantially. I'm not comfortable to risk my life savings yet. Interesting to compare the parallels in this Vancouver report with our Auckland market:

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/metro-vancouver-housing-prices-...

.. . Hugh Pavletich's " Demographia " is worth a look , to see how far above affordability house prices in NZ are ... we're just one step below the most expensive countries in the world ...

And as someone pointed out , our houses aren't constructed of particularly robust or good quality materials , too ...

The false economy of selling our houses to overseas wants outside the local taxpayers means. It's pretty clear that Key was wrong, or worse, delibretly misleading. What's his new job...oh yeah working for an Aussie bank.

Con man

Con Man?
Interesting how Mike Kirk never answers the questions put to him about his real estate career!!