Auckland housing sales volumes up but prices flat, while sales volumes down but prices up in the rest of the country in October

Auckland housing sales volumes up but prices flat, while sales volumes down but prices up in the rest of the country in October

Auckland's housing sales led the way in October, with the latest Real Estate Institute of NZ figures showing that 2025 homes were sold in the region in October, putting sales activity in Auckland back up to where it was in October last year when 2028 homes were sold.

However, around the rest of the country excluding Auckland, things weren't so buoyant, with sales volumes down 5.5% compared to October last year.

Across the entire country sales were down 4% compared to October last year.

Sales in the Bay of Plenty and Nelson were at their highest level for the month in four years while Tasman had the highest October sales in three years.

But Gisborne had its worst October sales in five years and Marlborough had the worst October sales in eight years.

Prices remained relatively flat in Auckland but continued to rise in most other parts of the country.

The REINZ House Price Index (HPI), which adjusts for differences in the mix of properties being sold, was up 3.7% across the entire country in the three months to October and up 3.9% compared to October last year.

However, in Auckland prices remain flat, with the HPI declining by 0.1% in October compared to September and remaining down 0.7% compared to October last year.

Over the last five years Auckland's HPI has increased by just 6.7% and that included the last two years of the Auckland boom.

In the rest of the country excluding Auckland the HPI has increased 8.2% in the 12 months to October.

The growth in house prices outside of Auckland propelled the national median price to a new record of $607,500. with record median prices also recorded in Northland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Manawatu/Whanganui and Otago.

The intereactive charts below show the median prices, volumes sold and median price growth trends in all regions of the country.

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Median price - REINZ

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Volumes sold - REINZ

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Median house price growth

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We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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220 Comments

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Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

"Prices remained relatively flat in Auckland but continued to rise in most other parts of the country". It will be interesting to see what happens to Auckland's house prices if mortgage rates start to rise again.

Easy to protect against interest rate rises with say 4 years fixed from ANZ at 4.19% or 5 years at 4.29% or play the short game and take 3.39% for 18 months - looks to me like we are going to have low interest rates for longer than anyone expected and no chance of increases in the short to medium term

Kiwibank was doing 3.99% for 5 years which in the scheme of things is pretty good

The market is dictated by current rates because people buying are signing up to mortgages at the time they buy the property.

"It will be interesting to see what happens to Auckland's house prices if mortgage rates start to rise again"

Big interest rates rises will have the same effect on house prices as a volcano erupting in Auckland, and the likelihood of either happening in the next 5 years is also about even

really! what happens to offshore funding if we go into recession???

What has it got to do with the price of pork in China?

Most people will not understand theglc's comment, as they don't see the dots that theglc is connecting here.

Might be worth asking - What is it that I don't know that I don't know about here?

I don't know what dots as the reserve bank has a no-limit lending window. So all in all our dollar would drop rather than our housing market collapsing, though recession should see it decline a decent chunk anyway from job loss and phycological factors.

"I don't know what dots as the reserve bank has a no-limit lending window"

Which would solve the short term problem, but they also have core funding ratios, so you cannot just borrow everything from the RBNZ on overnight terms, which leaves a problem.

The RBNZ sets that ratio... Even if they didn't want to change that ratio (be it temporary or longer term) they can place despots directly on to bank balance sheets by swapping for assets (using book value even if market value has collapsed). A lot of people underestimate the power of the reserve banks. In sum the RBNZ can make almost anything it wants happen and the consequences will show up in the currency.

Rates could rise again Yvil, it's already high on the RBNZ radar: "Markets price in lending rate hikes following the RBNZ's decision to keep the OCR at 1%; There are fears the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) decision to keep the Official Cash Rate at 1% will see banks increase their lending rates". Remember we are mostly at the mercy of overseas banks, keep in mind that they are having lots of internal and environmental catastrophes to deal with of late (Large environmental disasters in Oz, China HK conflicts and Trade War). Keep an eye on the bigger picture.
https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/102567/markets-price-lending-rate-hikes...

Volcanos could rise again CJ, it's already high….

LOL I think you find that's a far greater possibility to interest rate rises, try using logic: https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/102567/markets-price-lending-rate-hikes...

The reserve bank would likely intervene if rates began to meaningfully rise.

CJ009
There is always risk.
However,
- one's bank (in their interest) will be testing borrowers ability to meet interest rate of 6.5/7.0%
- RBNZ has indicated rates will remain low for longer
- term deposit rates out to 7 years are flat indicating banks don't foresee a likely interest rate rise over that period, and
- borrowers need to be prudent and pay down loan as soon as possible.
So when do you suggest FHB act? You are consistently posting this fear so on that account, never?
Fortunately 75,000 FHB mortgages (110,000+ people) disagree with you and have purchased in last three years.

"So when do you suggest FHB act?" Simple; When property is realistically affordable and in line with wages.

CJ099
This may be as good as it gets for Auckland FHB.
Even a modest 2 to 3% increase in prices - which is consistent with the RBNZ governor's comments earlier this year and less than the outlook by Westpac and other reputable commentators - will mean that $750,000 Auckland home will be getting $15,000 to $22,000 more expensive each year. Three years that home could be conservatively $60,000 or more expensive.
If you are a potential FHB, then while you have a risk fear (for which there is no certainty), then for the reason I have posted below (the equity multiplier effect) then you risk becoming one of the middle class renters and middle class poor of the future.
For the reasons I have posted, a member of the future middle class poor could be of a greater and likely risk for you.

17
up

There you go with the FOMO again. Stop it. It’s when there is FONGO (fear of not getting out) that it’s a good time to buy. Patience. NZ is still VERY expensive in world terms. Things will change.

@P8. See here's the flaw in your mantra that property prices will away increase; Wages are not increasing inline with house prices, and are likely to remain low unless our economies are allowed to grow. For business to thrive (Especially in expensive inner city areas) we need to drastically reduce the cost of living that was pumped up by years of Overseas Speculative Investors. For the cost of living to go down, we need house prices to reduce to wage earner levels. As mentioned prices will be falling back down to reality now that the overseas speculators are gone.

Not a problem, you just keep paying off your landlord’s mortgage. I am sure he/she is happy for that.
Oh, and don’t just think that FB are a recent phenomenon. I recall 15 to 20 years or so ago there were “Japanese Housewives” buying up NZ property. Exactly same reason; cheap cash.
Given the number of drivers in the Auckland market - and FB largely absent from other booming regional markets - possibly you are looking to FB as a scapegoat.
As to the future of the Auckland market, no problem also with you having your rationale. The good thing is that we have individual responsibility so in 15 to 20 years if you are one of the renting middle class poor don’t look to anybody else to shift blame to.
On a non-debatable point, I do wish you well.
Maybe it is my bias. I have four sons; all have purchased homes with two doing so in the last few years. All are doing well with one - in the wider Queenstown area - now owning four investment properties and another - in Melbourne - with one. All have done this without bank of Mum and Dad.

I can understand your concern for you and your family, since you have pointed out have invested in property very heavily so you do have all your eggs in the property investment basket. But to be fair, these investment places that you've highlighted have all benefited a hugely from Overseas Speculative Investment especially in the last few years.
Also NZ now has a Foreign Buyers Ban and AML enforced rules, there's reasons for that and it's mostly to stop Speculative Investment that is killing our real economies. That's what you can't get past: Putting overseas investment over wage earners = false economy. We're at a tipping point can't you see that? Or have you never worked in a real wage earning job (Not property related)? Also you mention Japan, well look what happened to them decades of stagnation after their asset price bubble's collapsed. I bet you don't see many “Japanese Housewives” buying up NZ property now.
Seems you can't see outside of your property box P8, try and think of what's happening around you in the real world.

I am not a fan of speculative investment, but I do not think that it kills our "real economy". It is a symptom, not a cause. NZ does not have many (or any) economic opportunities. All for good reasons too. High cost of labour (health and safety, decent working conditions compared to most other places, third highest minimum wage right after Luxamburg and Australia), environmentally responsible (no serious mining, banning oil and gas etc again compared to most other places), remote and small local market, low industrial skill levels etc mean that there are very little economic opportunities here. So money will go where money can go and that is in Agri business and property. Both are invested in to their saturation but what else? You blame a symptom instead of the underlying disease. And in this case, this is pain killer that masks the pains of the illness. If property market collapse, it will be years before NZers can have the quality of life they have now, if ever.

Actually speculative investment in property does severely effect the cost of living especially in cities. I have had personal experience of finding it very difficult to recruit staff to work in the Auckland's Tech industry, due to having to provide extremely high salaries, That puts significant strain on businesses. Same is true of other places in the Western World that became very dependent on overseas property investment which sent their property prices sky high too. Here's another example from Canada which has similar tech salaries to ours: Better Dwelling article: Vancouver’s Tech Scene Shows Just How F**ked Up The City’s Real Estate Is. https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-tech-scene-shows-jus...

As for you; stick to your rationale. Maybe my perspective has been influenced by what has happened for my generation of baby boomers. However, I see a considerable shift ahead; because of equity vs mortgage leverage, property has been a very sound investment (intrinsically as well as financially) for three generations. As I posted some days ago, in the 1970s I saw Pacific Island recent immigrants - not bringing wealth and in blue collar work - being able to afford to buy their home and today they will be very financially secure. In future I see a distinctive renting middle class poor developing in New Zealand. If you want to know why, I am happy to explain.
As for my investments I don't have all my eggs in one basket. As I previously posted, in 2016 I exited the property market for lifestyle reasons and it was just this year that my wife re-entered the investment property market wanting a secure investment but facing declining returns such as for TDs. I have investments but not in property. So personally I am well and truly outside of the property box.

P8 There's a huge difference to house prices in the 1970's when they were affordable and house prices at today's levels which are not affordable to most wage earners. You're still clinging to the mantra 'That property prices always go up!' Perhaps you should watch this award winning documentary to understand more: Who Owns New Zealand Now? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU

Today because tomorrow will be more unaffordable. Just look at the graph at the bottom of the story

"Just look at the graph at the bottom of the story"

Can that historical property price trend be expected to continue into the future?

Pull the cursor back all the way to 1992 to answer your own question

In developing expectations about future property prices:
1) is that the most important and relevant data to use?
2) why is that the most important and relevant data to use?

Oh com'on…

Some ask questions, some act. The ones who keep asking, keep wondering and then later on ask: what if ? The ones acting, prosper

A valiant attempt at redirecting the conversation and avoid answering the questions.

The problem I find is that some of us buy businesses and try to start new start-ups, but what happens while you try to do these type of things and the property market goes out of control.

Is this what NZ wants, is this good for NZ.

Hi Yvil
The reality is that while there are posters vocal on this site regarding the future of property, over 110,000 FHB have purchased their own home in the last three years.
These posters seem to think that their landlord is a fool; you and I know that the landlord will be ensuring that their tenants will be paying-off their mortgage off.
Ten years from now, people will be concerned about the renting middle class poor.

"These posters seem to think that their landlord is a fool; you and I know that the landlord will be ensuring that their tenants will be paying-off their mortgage off."

Printer8

Just to clarify for you.

Regarding those who have entered the residential property leasing business:

1) positively geared property investment which has been conservatively financed, and purchased at low valuations (and bought well by buying below recent comparable transactions) is likely to be a financially attractive investment

2) Conversely, negatively geared property investment which has been aggressively financed, and purchased at record high valuations (& potentially at a premium to recent comparable transactions due to FOMO) can potentially put owners in positions of financial vulnerability in future.

There are a sufficiently large number of owners in the latter category.

I suspect that you are in the first category.

A mortgage is not buying it is a debt

The rhetoric that what happened in the past is a predictor of the future, is highly flawed.
Several of us have explained why, but you clearly disagree.
Each to their own.

Indeed, it's only the 2nd best tool we have, ranking behind knowing the future for certain

LOL look at the facts. Houses in AKL are more affordable today then they were a year or 2 years ago.

"look at the facts"

When people look at different facts, they can come to different conclusions with respect to expectations of future property prices.

Let's assume the "reversion to the mean".

Some people are taking the average of different data sets. Depending on which data set the reader places a higher priority on, results in different conclusions.
1) Property price bulls - https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-house-price-growth (note that this is the source of the property prices double every 10 years belief)
2) Property price bears - https://www.interest.co.nz/Charts/Real%20estate/House-price-to-income

With respect to determining expectations of future property prices:
1) which is the most important and relevant data to use?
2) why is that the most important and relevant data to use?

"Fortunately 75,000 FHB mortgages (110,000+ people) disagree with you and have purchased in last three years."

Not sure where these people have purchased geographically. Some geographical markets are reasonably valued, some geographical markets are vastly overvalued. When enough people believe that property prices don't fall by much, and have used a large amount of debt to purchase overvalued assets, then watch out below. Highly leveraged buyers need to remember that they must be able to continue debt service payments under ALL conditions to avoid being forced to sell.

As a reminder ...

Cause of the housing and credit bubble in US

From the May 2010 FCIC interview with Warren Buffett, a reknowned investor and Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

MR. BONDI: As I mentioned at the outset, we’re investigating the causes of the financial crisis. And I would like to get your opinion as to whether credit ratings and their apparent failure to predict accurately credit quality of structured finance products, like residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, did that failure, or apparent failure, cause or contribute to the financial crisis?

MR. BUFFETT: It didn’t cause it, but there were a vast number of things that contributed to it. The basic cause, you know, embedded in psychology –- partly in psychology and partly in reality in a growing and finally pervasive belief that house prices couldn’t go down and everyone succumbed –- virtually everybody succumbed to that. But that’s –- the only way you get a bubble is when basically a very high percentage of the population buys into some originally sound premise and –- it’s quite interesting how that develops –- originally sound premise that becomes distorted as time passes and people forget the original sound premise and start focusing solely on the price action.

So every -– the media, investors, the mortgage bankers, the American public, me, my neighbor, rating agencies, Congress –- you name it -– people overwhelmingly came to believe that house prices could not fall significantly. And since it was biggest asset class in the country and it was the easiest class to borrow against, it created probably the biggest bubble in our history.

Agreed CN
RBNZ figures don't provide a regional distribution. However, there are likely to some tens of thousands in Auckland.
Ask your Auckland bank manager whether they are lending to FHBs - I think that you will be surprised.
As for bubble burst in USA situation was very, very different currently to NZ. For a start they didn't have LVRs (provable) and lenders were far, far more reckless and packaging and on-selling the junk bonds - something that is not happening in New Zealand despite what we may think of our banks as prime lenders.
So USA situation 2010 very, very different and irrelevant.

"So USA situation 2010 very, very different and irrelevant."

They key causes of mortgage default are the same globally - the inability of the borrower to maintain debt service payments under ALL conditions.

Yes CN; and our banks don't like people defaulting under ANY and ALL conditions so they will be ensuring that you can weather ANY reasonable foreseeable storm. That is why they currently test whether you can service a 6.5% / 7% mortgage charge.
As they hold the mortgage (very different to the 2010 USA situation where the risk was on-sold); you default, the bank invariably also lose as mortgagee sales - especially if there are lots of them - as that realised doesn't usually cover the loan, the gross interest penalty charges, their inflated costs (including their and your legal fees) for conducting the mortgage sale, the inflated real estate agency cost and their advertising and auctioneer's costs, and all their other incidental costs. So in self interest, they don't want to go there.
In reality, while your generalization is true, in practice it will not be the same globally.

Under current conditions, the chance of interest rates rising significantly and rapidly is real yet low.

There is another more likely scenario that has been overlooked that is more likely to cause financial stress, where the debt service ratio can increase significantly.

"So in self interest, they don't want to go there."

In the self interest of the bank, they definitely go there. They do mortgagee sales as a method of minimising their loan losses. Mortgagee sales are a last resort for repayment from the borrower. Here are 18 such examples in NZ currently:

https://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/CategoryAttributeSearchResults.aspx?sea...

Seriously CN (and others)
A little informal but possibly valuable survey.
Ask your Auckland bank branch mortgage manager (or mortgage broker); roughly what percentage of mortgages are to FHB?
Given that there were 2,000 houses sold in Auckland in October, that would give an approximate current number of FHB in Auckland. Post in 90 at 9.
Be honest - not interested in result from the ANZ Remuera branch.
You could also ask your REA, but don't trust them as they will say, in their self interest, whatever they think that you need to hear. Truth or reality doesn't rank highly there.

"Ask your Auckland bank branch mortgage manager ... roughly what percentage of mortgages are to FHB"

Just out of interest, what would you hope to prove or conclude from that statistic?

Well we know that FHB are increasingly active nationally - 75,000+ mortgages in past three years and trending up.
However, you question whether FHB this is mainly in the regions and are not active in Auckland market.
As there doesn't appear to be data readily available specific to Auckland - so lets settle it if you want.
Ask your Auckland bank mortgage manager or broker what the approximate percentage of mortgages are FHB and that will settle the concern raised.
Pretty simple, and I am pretty confident that there is reasonable FHB activity in Auckland.
Cheers

If interest rates increased the houseing market would falter at first, then the businesses that are just scaping by at present would fall apart and start a lay off spree and unemployment which in turn would rip the housing market a new rectum dragging the entire country with it.

Then those who are both rich and smart would come in and hoover up all the cheap properties, further unbalancing the distribution of wealth.

Bussiness as usual. See you there.

@HH: I hate to break this to you, but the Foreign Buyers are Gone! You may not be aware, that it was the Overseas Speculators that pushed up our property prices to unaffordable levels for local wage earners. Hence why the Foreign Buyers Ban was introduced.

No CJ099
FB may have been one factor; but it seemed that every middle-class Auckland and his dog speculators (who would have been far greater in number than FB), along with low interest rates, housing shortages, exceptionally consistently high immigration rates were far more important.
If FB were such a singular driver, with their absence why hasn't the market collapsed in the previous 12 months?
Seriously, if you are a potential FHB then with your fear factor and suggestions of a price collapse, you are trying hard to console yourself and be in denial as to why shouldn't do the same as the 110,000 first home buyers over the past three years.

"If FB were such a singular driver, with their absence why hasn't the market collapsed in the previous 12 months?"

Since the FB ban kicked in the OCR has been dropped by 0.75%, 2 year fixed mortgage rates have dropped almost 1% to new record lows, (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/official-cash-rate-decisions) the LVR limits have been relaxed, (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2018/11/reserve-bank-to-ease-loan-to-value...), First home grants have been increased..

Thats a whole lot of stimulus that has only managed to keep the Auckland market more or less flat. Without it where would we be? hint: its not up.

Pragmist
Great - I agree totally.
Great to see that one acknowledges that FB are not simply the single driver. as is being argued
. . . . and in addition to ones you list there is continuing high levels of immigration, continuing high leves of housing shortages, continuing (albeit slightly increasing) low levels of unemployment . . .
On the down side, consents are up (however, it will be six months in most cases before these materialise as houses and likely insufficient to meet increased demand due to immigration), affordability is still an issue but slightly improved.
hint: its not down.

The knife wound wasn't nearly fatal, patient was healthy, they just threw him on life support and pumped him full of plasma and blood for shits and giggles..

Auckland rolling 12 mth sales volumes 2013-2019 (warning: graphic content): https://i.imgur.com/SHpLZgG.png

Auckland population has gone up, interest rates have gone down, the HPI is down 1.1% before inflation since Oct 2017. But sales volumes are still struggling along.

yes, very good Rick.
And checking the 12m indicator shows it has continued to decline from May-Sept also.

RS
So?
We all know that Auckland HPI is down from the 2017 peak - as also are RVs at that time.
But also consider HPI are up 7% since 2015.
Due to the brightline test, local speculators who have sold out between 2017 and now would have bought well before the peak so will be walking away with a tidy CGT free profit.
That will be really be p'ing some off.
Investors since 2017 will be little concerned about market over past few years as they would have been looking very selectively at yield and longer term outlook rather than short term due to brightline test and loss-ringfencing.

To be honest, the data wasn't really about a commentary on the emotional response or state of people who invested for capital gains years back. It simply illustrates how the market has been performing.

I recall people are aware that market has some significant bidding up in 2015-2016.

Interesting that the big downward trend started right around when the Bright-line Test was introduced.

Who are you replying to CJ?

I see CJ updated his comment with "@HH: " to make it clear he was indeed replying to me.

Well, "hate to break it to you" CJ, but the presence or absence of foreign buyers has little impact on what will happen if the market crashes. There will be plenty of cashed up kiwis ready to snap up the bargains if/when that happens. And yes, there will be bargains because the market typically overshoots in a crash. You did realize that's what I was talking about, right?

LOL good job I sold my investments at the peak of the market then. Though how many local investors had the good sense to sell at peak is questionable, so probably not the big a pool of cash as you think. Having lower prices that have dropped back down to reality will be good news for First Time Buyers and those trying to move up the property ladder, plus our economy over all. That's a market re-balance by the way. :)

There's no peak in an uptrend, have a look at the graph at the bottom of the story, a magnificent, steady uptrend

Depends which graph you're looking at Yvil? Switch them to Auckland and it's an all together different story with a very noticeable declines particularly in house price growth, no massive gains there.

Good for you selling at peak, assuming it was peak.
I think the real problem with a crash caused by high interest rates is what happens to those first time buyers who bought at or near peak. I have minimal sympathy for big investors going bankrupt, as they're professionals and should have known the risks. But we have tens of thousands of FHB buying at or near peak who're just trying to put a roof over their heads. If a significant number of them end up struggling to make their repayments and/or with mortgages underwater then it's going to be a hell of a time.
This is why I see a soft landing as the best outcome for the country. Let affordability gradually improve over a 5-10 year timeframe.

"But we have tens of thousands of FHB buying at or near peak who're just trying to put a roof over their heads. If a significant number of them end up struggling to make their repayments and/or with mortgages underwater then it's going to be a hell of a time."

Yes, a number of owner occupiers who have bought in overvalued markets in recent years are at risk of being collateral damage. Some are under water today and in negative equity. That is one reason for highlighting potential risks to potential owner occupiers in these overvalued markets, especially first home buyers, so that they can make a fully informed decision. They are free to choose to ignore the potential risks, however they are not free from the potential financial consequences of choosing to ignore those potential risks.

"This is why I see a soft landing as the best outcome for the country. Let affordability gradually improve over a 5-10 year timeframe."

Agree with you that is the best outcome, for owner occupiers, as well as for financial stability in NZ. However unusual things can and do happen in free markets.

"Then those who are both rich and smart would come in and hoover up all the cheap properties, further unbalancing the distribution of wealth."

Many of those that think they are rich and smart are neither, they are highly leveraged and their wealth is all borrowed. Only after the fact would we find out who amongst them 'mistook leverage for genius'. I have no doubt several on this site would be caught out and bankrupted.

Yes, a crash would be the real test, no doubt.
What would happen if rents dropped 10% or even 20%?

Not sure, but we could find out in Auckland, stats nz already says rents are going backwards. A bit of easing in immigration numbers, and if the housing NZ developments really get into high gear and start soaking up the destitute we could see no increase in rents.

KR, I see this as quite likely at this point. There could be one of a number of catalysts to cause a housing decline, and the sky high share market would go with it (and could be one catalyst to start it too). With my capitalist pig hat on, that’s a good time to scoop up bargains, but with my compassion and empathy hat on, it’ll cause awful social and economic panic and pain for a lot of people.

VOR I agree - being prudent is more so important now than ever given the current "global headwinds" and global uncertainty Robertson likes to constantly refer to.
Be diversified and a little conservative.
For property, that means that the rental is cash flow positive and getting rid of any properties that are at best marginally poor and pay down the mortgage on other rental property. That way any housing decline is not going to be important.
In the period 2008/11 I watched property values (especially RVs) here in Hawkes Bay fall by 10% - same rental property, same rent income, no issue.

"In the period 2008/11 I watched property values (especially RVs) here in Hawkes Bay fall by 10%"

Printer8,

Who were the main sellers during that time in that market? And what were their reasons for selling?

1) owner occupiers
2) locally based property investors
3) property investors based from outside Hawkes Bay
4) others - please expand

I heard that a local Hawkes Bay property investor named "Orion", was buying residential real estate from forced sellers who were based outside of the Hawkes Bay during this time. I believe that these properties were cashflow positive, yet these non Hawkes Bay resident property owners were still forced to sell at prices below their purchase price and made capital losses. They were forced to sell due to unexpected cashflow stress.

You say that there was "no issue". Sure for you, there was no issue. However, it was a huge issue for the sellers who were forced to sell below their purchase price, realise capital losses and lost a large (or more than 100%) proportion of their equity deposit. I suspect the beneficiaries of their financial pain, was financial gains to savvy buyers (people like "Orion" & you).

And that Keeza, is what RBNZ don't want to see.
Think what you like about RBNZ, but economic suicide for the country is not on their agenda and won't be raising interest rates to realise that.

Onward and upward =)

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Fascinating isn't it how the Herald's article doesn't mention anything about the best measure of house price movement, the HPI, and how it's down (slightly) YOY in Auckland.
Vested interest? Surely not!

Vested interest? have health and safety gone nuts.. Jenee and Greg sitting at the computer in hi-vis and hardhats?

Don't worry, Houseworks will be along to give you a vest soon.. https://bit.ly/374MEdo or https://bit.ly/2NHVTIZ..
then he'll tell you https://bit.ly/32KOuNo

There's precisely zero chance of my clicking shortened links, no matter who posts them. They shouldn't be allowed here to be honest.

There are precisely two reasons I could think of that someone would use them in the comments section here:
1. To make sure people clicking them don't know what they are clicking (I'll give the benefit of the doubt here)
2. Track the number of people that click the link

Neither of which belong here especially with as heated as the comments section can get.

"1. To make sure people clicking them don't know what they are clicking (I'll give the benefit of the doubt here)"

Thats exactly why i shortened the links.. I thought it would be more amusing if the link didn't give away the joke. If you don't like it, then don't click the links, no skin off my nose.

PS, maybe i'm wrong, but I think cmats comment was in reply to Fritz mentioning granny herald.

Yeah, I was referring to the Herald.

I'm guilty(?) of posting shortened links to images I've uploaded - there is no other way to share content here.

Don't click that rubbish.

The data indicates that for Auckland City (central suburbs) median Oct 2018 was $957,000 whereas it is $1,001,000 median Oct 2019. Open homes in central suburbs are busy - more auctions are selling and multiple offers are being obtained on many listings within 2 weeks of listing. Usually when things pick up in the central suburbs a ripple effect sees the outerlying suburbs follow suit. Have heard of some results in South Auckland where the homes have achieved at least $100,000 more than they would have obtained 12 months ago. Gonna be an interesting summer market me thinks!

What's that got to do with HPI?

And what's with capitalising AUCKLAND?

Patently false to say more auctions are selling - if you've been keeping up on here, we go through B&T's data each week.
Auction volumes are down massively. The clearance rate is higher but far fewer properties going to auction compared to same period last year.

Yes cmat; not surprising auction numbers are down.
What you don't seem to comprehend is that in a changing market the preferred method of selling changes.
Auctions are preferred in both a booming and a depressed market (try figuring out why).
The Auckland market is firming so agents are likely to be advising vendors to take "offers over a fixed term" - that is a silent auction process. The advantage in a market with firming prices, one stands to get the unknown fear among those potential purchasers interested, so offer higher rather than in an open auction when the price realised is only $1 more than the second highest bidder.
It is not surprising that there are fewer auctions and clearance rate is higher.
If you really want to want to read anything of significance into the auction numbers and clearance; it is simple. Auction numbers are down simply because the nature of the Auckland market is changing from a flat to slightly negative (buyers) market to a slightly more firmer (sellers) market. Very simple and nothing alarmist in that.

What does "firming" mean in reference to the Auckland market.
Perhaps it might, with some Viagra

..hard to firm up when the object of desire is old, crumbling, in ill health, has multiple users, warn out and in need of a make-over.

And moves at the pace of a zimmer frame.

You forgot to mention the meth problem

Cheers mikekirk29
"Firming" as NOT in "bubble burst" and then "slow leaking" as repeatedly claimed by so many gung-ho cowboys over the past two plus years.
Don't worry, knowing your analysis methodology, I am very sure this will show; however, you will take at least 12 months for your analysis to actually do so.
In the meantime, just take a glance at the Auckland HPI graph and note possibility of early signs of a change compared to the trend line.
Joe Wilkes - also a great calculations man - has just run out of another month for that predicted 2019 crash; he is running it tight.
Have a good day.

Interesting. Have a good eve

It has nothing to do with HPI. Auctions in the central suburbs were down to as low as a 20% sell rate at the worst point of the market. Barfoot auctions are less successful - usually held in rooms versus on site.
(not sure why my ipad keeps auto-capitalising Auckland)

I doubt the ripple effect will happen this time around.
Many FHBs are giving up on the promised shakeups in Auckland's transport infrastructure and would rather pay a premium to live in the central city.
To many new buyers, that's still a better alternative than spending hours in traffic each day while councillors and public agencies struggle to find common ground even at the very early stages of design.
Don't forget many of Auckland's recent migrants grew up in densely-populated cities, so terraced apartments in the CBD fringe aren't a deal breaker for them.

Also a bit of aversion to wanting to have anything to do with a rundown shack that requires renovation.. FHBs are leaving those for the flippers to buy and reno.

However I think some of the flippers are getting a bit bloody greedy:
2/6a Kallu has a price on it now. $830k, they brought it for $600k, but I can't see them having sunk more than about $60k into it. I hope nobody pays anything near their stupid asking price for it. Low to mid 700's seems about right to me given the location.

Just FYI. HPI for Auckland City
2018: 2729
2019: 2736

up 0.25%.

Yep. In the ballpark of -1.7% or so in real terms.

Real terms? Not relevant. Mortgages aren't inflation adjusted.

You're talking like you've purchased a house finally? This is true, inflation is the indebted homeowner's friend because it eats away at the mortgage.

I think they mean that the HPI only increased by 2018: 2729 to 2019: 2736 being 0.25% and inflation was 1.95% over that period therefore a loss in real terms of -1.7% has resulted i.e. value increase in house was less than inflation. So while there was not a nominal loss (as HPI increased) there was a loss in real terms as the value of house increased less than inflation so the measure of its value (i.e. money) has fallen in real terms.

The presence or not of a mortgage is neither here nor there.

This is true. I do think the presence of a mortgage is relevant though.The higher your mortgage %, the more it matters. If you have a 100% mortgage of $1M you owe the bank the equivalent of 1,000,000 Mars bars on day 1, but after one year of 1.95% inflation you only owe the bank the equivalent of 980,872 Mars bars.

I suppose it is relevant for ascertaining the net consumption power of the person at any given time.. so... in that sense all assets and liabilities are relevant?

I think so.

I posted this a while back. I purchase a house in 1984 for the median price of $56,615. I take out an 80% mortgage of $45,292. I earn the average annual income of $14,820, so the mortgage is 3 times my salary. In 1993 I sell the house for the median price of $115,813. Due to wage inflation over this period, my wage is now the median of $28,931.31, so I can now pay off the mortgage in just 1.5 years instead of 3 years. And that's even if I was on interest only and not paying down the mortgage at all over that period. In relative terms, my mortgage has halved, so even though the house value may not have increased in real terms, I'm still much better off.

It's not clear to me if HPI is inflation-adjusted, or not; I've not looked at the methodology, nor do I know if it's even published.

Certainly I agree that an inflation adjusted measure is appropriate, and a cynical view of REINZ suggests that HPI is not...

What the HPI represents is house price inflation.
By 'inflation-adjusted' I assume you mean CPI is the basis for adjustment?
If so the answers are:
- No. The HPI is not 'inflation-adjusted'.
- Yes. The methodology is published. A quick googling will reveal this.
- No. An 'inflation-adjusted' measure is not appropriate.

Normalising the index in real terms might be appropriate. But CPI represents a poor method for doing so.
Perhaps normalise mortgage expenses against CPI. But not house prices.

Thank you.

When you oppose adjusting house prices for CPI, is that a general objection to expressing it in real terms, or a narrow objection to CPI as the specific measure for doing so? I can see a case for the latter, but firmly believe that the former is appropriate.

It is a narrow objection to normalising it by CPI growth, specifically.

Definitely express house price inflation in real terms against some other asset appreciation (~ opportunity cost).
Perhaps even wage growth or rental growth. But not a consumption index.

Conversely, compare weekly mortgage payments to CPI if CPI is your thing..

Hey Nymad, since you're familar with the inner workings of the HPI could you answer a couple of questions for me?

1) is the HPI number based on some arbitrary base number (eg. Jan 1997 = 100 or something)
2) is there any useful comparision between regions based on the HPI numbers. Eg, if auckland =2000 and hamilton = 1000, does that mean overall prices for similar properties are twice as much in Auckland compared to Hamilton?

1 - Yes. That can be set at anything. Obviously log difference between two HPI levels doesn't change respective of base period.
2 - As long as they are have the same base period, yes they are comparative in terms of growth of an average property in each region.
Let's use simple numbers - If AKL = 4 and HLZ = 2 and base = 1, the interpretation is that after x periods, the average house in Auckland is worth double the average house in HLZ. i.e. rate of growth in AKL > HLZ.

Thanks,

Do you know what the base for the current HPI is?

Nah, I don't.
Like I said though - it doesn't really matter what the base is. It can be renormalised to be anything.

If you have the values that far back which I don't. But was more just curious than anything else.

qué?
You don't need the starting value. Just pick some arbitrary date and normalise by the respective HPI estimate...
Even better, just take the log of the index series. Much easier to interpret if % growth period on period is what you are after.

The real terms definitely matter when you're selling. Also matters for affordability.

It's pretty weird to compare asset prices against a consumption index..

CJ
HPI up 0.25%
One has 20% equity in home (i.e. 1/5).
The mortgage same, but one's equity increases.
0.25% increase in house price equates to (0.25% x 5) increase in one's equity = 1.25% gain in equity (and not subject to CGT). Plus one has the intrinsic value of owning a home.
Note Auckland prices are firming and market has likely bottomed out so rate of HPI is likely to rise in next few years.
For Auckland, a modest 2% annual increase in HPI will see ones equity increase (2% x 5) =10% p.a. (tax free). Pretty good for a fairly secure risk free investment.
CJ, this is the secret as to why the boomers have gained considerable wealth out of home ownership, and particularly those with investment properties.
I worry for those who scoff at home ownership - they will not only be a future renting middle class, but also a future poor middle class.
P.S. I strongly support a CGT in terms of fairness.

I worry for those who ignore the fact that leverage works in more than one direction.

I very much doubt you truely worry about them

I do actually - because you can bet, when the SHTF the numpties who don't understand leverage are invariably the ones too deep in it, and they take everyone else down with them.

But not before they have a cry about the big mean Banks lending them too much money, how they didn't understand the risks and how vulnerable they were.

They'll trolley out lines like:
"Waaaah... but the plan was my mortgage would stay the same and my equity would just increase. You know?!"
"Waaaah... I was supposed to get 5x leveraged gains *and* the intrinsic value of owning my home"
"Waaaah... but it was a "secure risk free investment"! Do you even know what that means?"
"Waaaah... I'll still get my considerable wealth gain? Right?"
"Waaaah... but I shouldn't lose any money. I'm savvy, smarter and work harder than the renting middle class. *They* are the poor people"

So you're confirming you're not worried for them, you're worried about yourself

Then there are the inevitable stories in the media
1) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=107...

Then there could be cases bought against banks of irresponsible lending by the banks by the financially illiterate -
1) https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/interest-only-home-loans-under-scrutiny/9540724

There are other non financial effects, such as mental health issues. If you've known any people who have lost all of their financial security - you know it can take a mental toll on the individual and the family. In some cases, it can lead to depression and suicide.

To be honest Yvil's right.
I don't worry *for* those people. I worry *about* those people.

I'll have no sympathy for people who get over their heads chasing leveraged gains.
If Yvil or printer8 end up in the shtook and whinge about their Banks I'd probably even laugh. At them.

I just worry about the sh!tstorm they'll create for everyone else.
They're the biggest risk to financial stability.

And I'd fight any bail-out of over-leveraged numpties with every fibre of my being.
Screw being prudent now only to be forced to help out illiterate mugs who've been crowing like they're Warren Buffett.

Well we are on something cmat, be responsible for your decisions and actions, reap the benefits or pay the price but don't get others involved

P8, It's no secret that Boomers saw their property prices skyrocket in Auckland (mostly) over the last few years due to Overseas Speculative Investment which is now gone. It is lower mortgage interest rates that are keeping prices up and only in the low to mid bracket that is less the a million the rest of the upper priced market is stagnating in the so called exclusive suburbs, we can even see that in the lack of sales in these areas via the auction results.
There is going to be very little CGT gain without Overseas Speculative Investment, that's why we need to rebuild our economies.

Please CJ099 - take your blinkers off!!!! FB were simply one of the drivers.

Yes agreed there were other factors too, like all those Money Launders buying in Auckland. Hence why we had to enforce AML (Anti-Money Laundering) regulations, so no surprise that stagnation in the multi million property price bracket is attributed to the latest enforcement on that criminal activity. "It’s estimated that over $1 billion a year comes from drug dealing and fraud, and can be laundered through New Zealand businesses". A billion dollars buys a lot of property in popular exclusive Auckland suburbs. Humm, it seems that market is drying up. NZ Justice: https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/news/putting-the-heat-o...

Agree, they were just one of the drivers.
How about the others?
Repeated cuts to interest rates - largely, if not totally, exhausted
High immigration - yes a factor, and is still high, but its impacts are overstated
Housing shortfall - revised population figures (75K downwards in Auckland), and lots of house building in last 2 years = minimal if any shortfall

I'm inclined to think that the tightening of the Chinese capital account, and to a lesser extent the AML regs, were more important than the FBB per se. As it happens they all came in at roughly the same time.

No investment where you have borrowed 80% of the cost can be described as 'risk free'. A 20% fall wipes you out, anything more than that wipes out more than your initial investment.

House prices do tend to be more stable than some other assets, and the rewards tend to be lower as a consequence. Leverage can amplify the returns but only at the expense of amplifying the risks.

In east Auckland can see that their is demand as a result vendors are getting better price than they would have starting of the year - No Doubt.

This summer will set the trend if the poitive sentiment will continue or is just a last minute jump - though at the moment it seems that will stay and market sentiments are better.

What does the Herald mention?

Yaay... it's got the word 'UP' on it - see? 2020 here we come, buckle up for AKL lead on it's famous celebrated RE extravaganza.. to infinity & beyond...whoosh!

The Granny Herald in full propaganda mode. Advertisers > subscribers.

subscribers? do they have any? given how feeble their paywall is its only the oldies that will be coughing up moolah for their daily dose of Hoskings..

12
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The NZ herald article on the same data set is an absolute disgrace to the journalists credibility.

15
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The NZ herald article on the same data set is an absolute disgrace to the journalists credibility.

Once Were Journalists

First line: sales same as in October 2018.
But headline says "sales volumes up". Not on October though I see.

Yep. "Breaking news: Housing sales up compared to last year in Auckland..."
How is 2025 > 2028?

Indeed. Up compared to september? But of course that's meaningless.

By homes I take it you mean houses?
REINZ website gives details on this and total sales.
The figures seem highly volatile, sometimes being adjusted by quite a lot even 5m after, and for this reason I look at the longer periods of time.
For Jan_Sept 2019, sales in Auckland are 8.3% lower than in 2017 (all sales)
For first 9m of 2019 they are 16% lower than in 2018.
Not buoyant and not up.
I am afraid REINZ is a commercial organisation and as such states what it believes to be most conducive to bolstering confidence in buyers and sellers.
That is, analyses are not presented that might not serve such a purpose.

Take Hobsonville for instance. In first 9m of 2017 it sold 318. In first 9m of 2019 it sold 346.
In 2018 however it sold 641. Not because of front running the ban though eh?
While in that area: take a look at Waitakere which encompasses Hobsonville.
RE NZ states it has 952 houses and townhouses for sale (homes?)
Except if you take the trouble to go through them all, which I did yesterday, it turns out 28% are lots - that is, not built. So they are not homes. And not houses either.
Words and their meaning matter and so do facts.
We are told things that are selectively chosen and not told other things.

Solid result for Auckland. Those looking to buy will be happy to see that the HPI has leveled off from the gains it made in August and September. It'll be interesting to see whether it can maintain that level in Feb/March. I'm picking no, but only time will tel.

Also today, this is out: "Property prices in 10 regions out of 15 reach new record"

https://property.trademe.co.nz/market-insights/property-price-index/prop...

Wow, are you really going try to promote stats that rely on asking prices, not actual prices of successful sales?

But i do like the -3.1% asking price change for Auckland.. So i'll grab that cherry :) Plummeting like a stone :P

Just providing some more data out today, you do what you like with it

13
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Not sure it qualifies as data, i'll file that under noise.

I'm going to list my house with an asking price of $100 million. See what that does to the data?

It shows that if the vendor is ready to meet the market - will get sold sign.

That's the very nature of 'The Market'. The difficulties arise when the potential buyers and sellers have a very different views on where the market price is.

Hi alittle
If I was currently an investor in the Auckland market I would be holding off selling. Indicators are for a firming market, so why sell now?

Go ask all the Auckland investors selling up. Plenty of recent listings we've looked at are rentals being sold off.
Edit: just received a text from one real estate agent selling off her own rental asking if we were still interested.. bringing forward the deadline sale date (by two days?) because someone finally made an offer

Isn't a RE agent selling their own rental a conflict of interest?

Sort of, but if its declared (and it certainly wasn't being hidden at the open home) then effectively its just a private sale.. but with one side that (likely) has far more experience at it.

hmmm, still doesn't feel right

It's also declared in the Sales and purchase agreement, and any buyer would have to initial that specific clause.
(just had the property info pack sent to me with draft sales agreement)
"The purchaser acknowledges that the vendor, Mrs XYZ, is a licensee salesperson and may benefit financially from this
transaction pursuant to section 136 Real Estate Agents Act 2008.

Its all above board.

Rare instance in which the agent and vendor actually have aligned interests.

Agents are normally vendor biased.. right up to the point they think the buyer is at the verge of saying nope, not paying anymore, find a new sucker.

This and past months REINZ data have been showing a consistent pattern where it can confirm the current housing price in AKL has stabilized. Given the current low stock status in Auckland, it will be interesting to see Nov's data. My guess is significant increased sales volume with flat price in November. Familiar pattern.

Ha. Compare sales total for November 17 and see 2018.
UP, a lot. And this year will be down. Reversion to the mean.
The last 33 months the Auckland market is selling precisely what it sold in the 21 months after Lehman went down, pcm.
2014-15 surge was an aberration when all Chinese money came in and now its gone out again and we are back to trend of downward sales graph, which has been in place since 2012.

Yes agreed, both NZ and Australia we're carried aloft by Chinese money during the GFC and didn't really feel it's effects like the rest of the Western world did.

There you go again CJ099
I see you have been on this site slightly less than 4 years.
So you really did miss all those local Auckland speculators boasting on this site how property was so wonderful and prices were going to go on and on rising. Nobody could not buy and not make more tax free than they were earning.

LOL P8, Getting desperate and taking to using non logical personal ridicule. Did it ever occur to you that I've actually been in NZ far longer than just 4 years. So yes, I have seen Auckland before the Overseas Speculative Investment 'Gold Rush'. How about you try to structure a real argument HW to support your claims. Oh and by the way, I can't see those local Investors having much to boasting about now with the false economy they invested in. Come to think of it where is DGZ and Eco Birdy these days?

There was also the one-off influx of insurance money after the Chch earthquakes, which tends to be forgotten. Plenty of that went into Auckland.

Can anyone please post the link to the REINZ data,

Thanks

Thanks GGP

No one able to answer me yet, what to say to our kids? when they've been told about being prudent, wise spending, savings, on their $ awareness education - but us, grown up? being shuffle/force into this.. borrow loan, spending. How do we explain to them about this mixed paradigm, and is it good reality? - Specially to those that bull so much into this one way hype of RE, honestly I want to see that 50,60,70yrs of home loan being offered for the future generations, QEs, print $, leverage.. you name it. In the end it's about enslaving the future generations to support those that most likely not into high productivity gears of life.

The current system does has flaws. Everyone agrees. Is there a way to solve it? Sadly the answer is "no" at this stage. Instead of complaining, be in this game first.

The answer isn't no. There are many possible answers, each with their own pros and cons. The powers that be prefer maintaining the status quo and pushing it forward.

I hear many "possible" answers well. The problem is that big boys are not confident enough to choose one and no one can guarantee it will be flawless. On the other hand, how long and how much cost it would take to transfer into new system? So my point is try to win the current game. For people who really want to push something new, win this game first.

Let me elaborate to you, there's another game in life called productivity, learning/study, very long one & working. To the point of multiple countries offered free housing wherever you've been invited to give your service. This local game we called a pyramid/Jinga game, the bottom mass is actually supporting the few of heavy top. This method of game is always end not well for all participants - when things crumble. Imagine if the whole world subscribe to be on the game you've mentioned then by the way, who will look after the elderly property owner? hospital patients? taking out your rubbish? C'mon be sensible for the promotion.

Unsure why it should be categorised as a 'game' - Not complaining BUT we're talking about future generations here, If they been told to save/prudent. Then Mr. Orr suggest to spend, the kids ask you is that your best answer? With our skills, we can always jump ship easily. Not bound to this 'local game'. Some people with limited skills/training can only opt to be 'in the game', we're not fortunately.

Forget Auckland, good buy is in Porto and Lisbon, y-o-y increase is around 10-12% mark. Lisbon especially is way nicer and better weather than Auckland.
https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Portugal/Price-History

Yes CM
However, its a bit like hearing about a great party, but by the time you get there the best of the party is over.
For me, looks like Auckland could be developing pretty good - but agreed, it won't be anything like the 2012/17 boom party we remember.

I spent some time in Lisbon recently. Beautiful city.
The locals are properly pissed off about the property inflation that's come along with hipness, though. What were the city's working-class suburbs have now been converted into AirBnBs. Block after block of them. The local cafes and are shops are being replaced by bland international-hip joints. Much like Barcelona, there's real hostility towards tourism as a result. I'd love to live there, but I'd feel like a real shite buying a property when I know how they feel about it (and the local minimum wage is about 3eur p/h)

So 2nd worst Oct for volumes sold in Auckland since 2011

Must have been a rainy October or maybe there was an election or some other excuse....

Rugby

Oh yes I forgot about that one. We should revive and extend. Probably everyone is too depressed after the AB's SF loss to carry on with anything so mundane as buying and selling houses?

Landlords seem to like it if prices go up.
So do those who like to sit comfortably in a highly valued home in Auckland with little to no mortgage on it.
Low interest rates boost share markets where rich hold most of the shares.
Meanwhile, those facing a house market in Auckland where prices are 45% higher than in 2013 (and wages distinctly not) must continue to pay rents to those who buy up 75% of new stuff being built. Hence the great sucking sound as wealth (for doing nothing productive) continues to be drawn up to those with plenty already.
Higher prices simply mean fewer sales and more inequality which seems fine to most contributors on here, but not all thankfully.

Cutting through the noise...there is a whole industry out there that rely on the market rising and thus spend countless $$ spinning things that way.

There is no money being spent spinning the negative.

So no surprises joe public still ain't got no idea of what is unfolding.

Keep kidding yourselves spruikers......

REINZ Auckland HPI October 2018 Year-on-Year: -0.4%
REINZ Auckland HPI October 2019 Year-on-Year: -0.7%

I hadn't actually realised till I checked back that the REINZ HPI for Auckland has been negative for October for the last two years. Down 1.1% over the last two years before inflation.

Good news for prospective first home buyers who have been saving hard and younger generations of Kiwis, with with most accurate measure of prices slowly coming down. Tougher outside of Auckland, obviously.

So about 5% down in real terms?

then add the leverage impact on your equity to determine the inflation adjusted return on the initial equity deposit ....

Depends if you paid in local earnings or sent in money from overseas. With the NZ dollar going down, it's a greater decline if one bought from overseas a few years back.

You would be mad to buy an inflated leaky Auckland house. Just think about $400K over value compunding over 25yrs.

Don't you love Bindi?
Papakura sales covering blushes for rest of Auckland.
Notice there is no mention of what sales are doing for specific asset classes (apartments and sections for instance?) That is because they are down 33-42% on last year, when of course they were artificially inflated by those rushing to get some before ether ban.
She has the audacity to (at last) admit that sales were better where its cheaper (no...?) whilst continuing to deny its an over-priced market.
I will repeat, ad nauseam, Auckland sales in first 9m of 2019 are 16% down on 2018. And 8.3% lower than 2017 for same period. So, its not buoyant, its not improving and it's not "firming". It's static to falling.
And if you look at 12m series to end of each month, it is in fact slowly deteriorating despite all the trumpeting about interest rate cuts.

Hope you are correct but when in Auction room- can feel the positive sentiment and though not all houses are selling but those which are selling and if are good houses going at a decent price - much more than what they would have feteched end of last year or even uptill September 2019.

Also asking and expectation have increased or being very poistive specially in the name of development or apartment - Quite a few like : https://www.realestate.co.nz/3649075 asking 1.4 Million plus and in the area similar houses have gone in 900s to Million or may be CV of 1.1Million (if Lucky and future development opportunities) but hoping more than 20% above is being hopefully optimist (No one is making apartment on that land but have gone and spend some money and time for report-I guess) another CV 1150000 and asking 1.3 Million plus : https://rwhalfmoonbay.co.nz/properties/residential-for-sale/manukau-city....

Another icing on the cake : CV815000 and was sold in 2016 for 760000 and now hoping to get more than a million (was a do up but still 30% to 40% rise inthis market) : https://rwhowick.co.nz/properties/sold-residential/manukau-city/howick-2...

I think are asking too much but if those houses sell anything near their asking/expectation than market has changed for sure.

Above are just few but if one search can find good number of similar houses in market and also many which would have gone 10% to 15% below RV earlier are now insisting on asking RV Value, if not more (Check anyhouses that is going for Auction or have failed and will have expectation of atleast CV)

I assume that if RE Agents are excpecting such a rise now, must be based on some positive sentiments or developments.

Wait and Watch.

With just one house going way above like old times (57 Nelson street sold for more than 1.3 million with a cv of 840000)- RE Agents are using it as a benchmark to push the market as got to know through 66 Howe which has a CV of 815000 and was sold in 2016 for 760000 and now expecting 1.1 or 1.2 million (though encoraging buyer over million - which in itself, if sold is a fantastic price for vendor to get $200000 or $250000 in 3 years that is a profit of more than than $1400 Per week and this is when the market is suppose to be down)

You are correct it is wait and see how the market trennds by December

I am ultra cynical, I know, but part of me thinks its not unintentional that Bindi is out there as the chief cheerleader.
Pleasant looking, pleasant personality, silly - read - innocent girl next door name....
Hard to dislike

Listening in on the close-to-retirement old blokes in the office, and they're furiously outbidding each other on dodgy shacks in dead small towns.

well its still makes good sense, sell your shack in Akld for $1m, buy shack in northland for $350k, $650k in the bank to spend on golf and cocktails

and antibiotic for std treatment

You're playing golf wrong.

"outbidding" to live in or as investments because they have no yield at the bank?

Purely speculative mania because no yield at the bank, and they're frightened of the sharemarket, because they went belly-up in a purely speculative mania 32 years ago.

Heh, worried about speculative markets so leverage yourself up into a speculative market (in/near retirement no less)

I think a lot of Aucklanders/Wellingtonians who are buying in the provinces 'for better yield' are going to get burnt when they learn just why that 'amazing investment opportunity' hasn't been taken up earlier.
Small-town NZ is 63% meth labs and 37% failing op shops run by women with too many dogs.

*cats

An OCR rate cut yesterday would have been politically useless. Too close to Christmas and too far away from the next election. RBNZ does not have much powder left. Best to keep it dry for next year and do a double whammy of an LVR relaxation and OCR cut. Put some real liquidity into the market. 95% mortgages for all!! FHB and those who manage to trade up to something nicer (or anyone with a vested interest in the Auckland property market) will be obliged to tick the right box when the time comes.

Heh, here was I thinking the RBNZ was independent.

They don't care if it's politically useless or not, or how close we are to an election.
Doesn't factor into their decision-making (or at least *shouldn't*)

I don't believe for a minute that they are truly independent.

Yeah, but I don't think that they would go as far as working to electoral cycles.

Delaying a rate cut now so they can do one closer to the election? Nah.

WOW, house prices up $46'000 = 8.2% for the year, stronger than even I expected

My area in Brisbane went up 17%, i can sell and buy that leaky unit in Auckland now... and enjoying my very own time stucked in SH1.

https://tinyurl.com/tybapy9

Housing is still affordable in NZ for most working couples.
Admittedly, I wouldn’t be buying a first home in Auckland or an investment property as the yields are not good enough for us!
What I do know though is that if I was living in Auckland, there would be money to be made by buying well, improving and selling, rather than what we do in Christchurch as we are investors rather than speculators.

Dude, I would be the last person to buy and live in Christchurch.. my coloured skin and people in CHCH with red sunburn on their necks don't mix!

It's not only the skinheads that'll try take you out, you're many times more likely to be wiped out on the road by one of The Man 2's dropkick tenants running from the cops in a stolen car. Also, if you're going to own a house in Christchurch don't bother furnishing it as per capita burglary rates are through the roof.

It's where Peter Jackson got the idea for the movie District 9, the voice acting was superb. On point.

Bollacks!
We have never had any such problems at all in ChCh!
Clearly you live in different times to me
ChCh is a fabulous place to live

In 2011, Jared Peck was sentenced to two years in prison after he and others attacked five Asians on Riccarton Rd. That same year, Phillipa Parker and her boyfriend Steven Donaldson set dogs on Asian people walking along Lincoln Rd. A Chinese man had his jaw broken in a three-on-one attack.

In 2015, 40 to 50 rugby supporters racially harassed Fijian player Sake Aca, including calling him a ‘black c##t’. In the same year, student Malo Seumanutafa, said his Christchurch school experience regularly included the epithets ‘black n####r’, ‘darkie’ and ‘f####n boonga’.

In 2016, Philip Arps delivered pigs heads to the Al Noor mosque, performed a Nazi salute and declared he’d prefer to deliver ‘molotov cocktails’ to ‘get the fuckers out’ and that ‘the rules are changing, bring on the cull’.

Arps’ Nazi themed Christchurch business, Beneficial Insulation, used a site ‘BIIG.com’ named after a barracks in Auschwitz Concentration Camp. Meterage was charged at $14.88 after a 14-word Nazi phrase from Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf and doubling the eighth letter of the alphabet meaning ‘Heil Hitler’. His ‘Black Sun’ business logo, also used by the Christchurch shooter, is one Heinrich Himmler had embossed on the floor of the SS Centre at Wewelsburg Castle.

2011? Were they skinheads?2015 Were they skinheads. no!
2016. one man.
geez 8 years and 3 incidences?
I can tell you now that there is a helluva lot more rascist stuff going on each and every night in Auckland.
ChCh is not inundated with skinheads !!!!!

by THE MAN 2 | 14th Nov 19, 7:27pm
0
up
Of Course.
Please post the article you can find about the prevalence of Skinheads in ChCh. That is not years old.
Haven’t seen any for 10 years.

BINGO!

Another article on house sales (showing little change) = well over 100 comments,
the article of 2 days ago that set out the changes to the ADLS S&P agreement to buy these houses = 1 comment.

Clearly most commenters here do not buy RE, most think they are "experts" because they live in a house and post nothing more than their personal opinion

Funnily enough, you have made 18 comments on this article. Almost 1 in 10 comments are from you.

Are you suggesting that most commentators should go elsewhere because you don't agree with what they have to say? Are you trying to reduce the number of participants on this website with your hostility? So that the Interest.co team see a reduction in ad revenue?

I think he is highly exposed and worried. Otherwise why would he take so much concern in what us DGMs are saying.
If he was so confident, I don't think he would even bother.
I'm here primarily to be part of a group that has an informal mandate to provide some much needed balance to all the BS on real estate that dominates the media. If the media doesn't provide the balance, at least us DGMs on Interest will!!!!!

Isn't what you post also your 'personal opinion'?

Of Course.
Please post the article you can find about the prevalence of Skinheads in ChCh. That is not years old.
Haven’t seen any for 10 years.

I haven't said anything about skinheads in ChCh. At least not today.

TM 2 doesn't know how the Reply button works. I think he's responding to something in an earlier thread.

snigger