Auckland housing sales volumes up but prices flat, while sales volumes down but prices up in the rest of the country in October

Kiwibank was doing 3.99% for 5 years which in the scheme of things is pretty good

The market is dictated by current rates because people buying are signing up to mortgages at the time they buy the property.

really! what happens to offshore funding if we go into recession???

Rates could rise again Yvil, it's already high on the RBNZ radar: "Markets price in lending rate hikes following the RBNZ's decision to keep the OCR at 1%; There are fears the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) decision to keep the Official Cash Rate at 1% will see banks increase their lending rates". Remember we are mostly at the mercy of overseas banks, keep in mind that they are having lots of internal and environmental catastrophes to deal with of late (Large environmental disasters in Oz, China HK conflicts and Trade War). Keep an eye on the bigger picture.
https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/102567/markets-price-lending-rate-hike…

"So when do you suggest FHB act?" Simple; When property is realistically affordable and in line with wages.

"Fortunately 75,000 FHB mortgages (110,000+ people) disagree with you and have purchased in last three years."

Not sure where these people have purchased geographically. Some geographical markets are reasonably valued, some geographical markets are vastly overvalued. When enough people believe that property prices don't fall by much, and have used a large amount of debt to purchase overvalued assets, then watch out below. Highly leveraged buyers need to remember that they must be able to continue debt service payments under ALL conditions to avoid being forced to sell.

As a reminder ...

Cause of the housing and credit bubble in US

From the May 2010 FCIC interview with Warren Buffett, a reknowned investor and Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

MR. BONDI: As I mentioned at the outset, we’re investigating the causes of the financial crisis. And I would like to get your opinion as to whether credit ratings and their apparent failure to predict accurately credit quality of structured finance products, like residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, did that failure, or apparent failure, cause or contribute to the financial crisis?

MR. BUFFETT: It didn’t cause it, but there were a vast number of things that contributed to it. The basic cause, you know, embedded in psychology –- partly in psychology and partly in reality in a growing and finally pervasive belief that house prices couldn’t go down and everyone succumbed –- virtually everybody succumbed to that. But that’s –- the only way you get a bubble is when basically a very high percentage of the population buys into some originally sound premise and –- it’s quite interesting how that develops –- originally sound premise that becomes distorted as time passes and people forget the original sound premise and start focusing solely on the price action.

So every -– the media, investors, the mortgage bankers, the American public, me, my neighbor, rating agencies, Congress –- you name it -– people overwhelmingly came to believe that house prices could not fall significantly. And since it was biggest asset class in the country and it was the easiest class to borrow against, it created probably the biggest bubble in our history.

Then those who are both rich and smart would come in and hoover up all the cheap properties, further unbalancing the distribution of wealth.

KR, I see this as quite likely at this point. There could be one of a number of catalysts to cause a housing decline, and the sky high share market would go with it (and could be one catalyst to start it too). With my capitalist pig hat on, that’s a good time to scoop up bargains, but with my compassion and empathy hat on, it’ll cause awful social and economic panic and pain for a lot of people.

And that Keeza, is what RBNZ don't want to see.
Think what you like about RBNZ, but economic suicide for the country is not on their agenda and won't be raising interest rates to realise that.

There's precisely zero chance of my clicking shortened links, no matter who posts them. They shouldn't be allowed here to be honest.

There are precisely two reasons I could think of that someone would use them in the comments section here:
1. To make sure people clicking them don't know what they are clicking (I'll give the benefit of the doubt here)
2. Track the number of people that click the link

Neither of which belong here especially with as heated as the comments section can get.

What's that got to do with HPI?

And what's with capitalising AUCKLAND?

Patently false to say more auctions are selling - if you've been keeping up on here, we go through B&T's data each week.
Auction volumes are down massively. The clearance rate is higher but far fewer properties going to auction compared to same period last year.

I doubt the ripple effect will happen this time around.
Many FHBs are giving up on the promised shakeups in Auckland's transport infrastructure and would rather pay a premium to live in the central city.
To many new buyers, that's still a better alternative than spending hours in traffic each day while councillors and public agencies struggle to find common ground even at the very early stages of design.
Don't forget many of Auckland's recent migrants grew up in densely-populated cities, so terraced apartments in the CBD fringe aren't a deal breaker for them.

Just FYI. HPI for Auckland City
2018: 2729
2019: 2736

up 0.25%.

In east Auckland can see that their is demand as a result vendors are getting better price than they would have starting of the year - No Doubt.

This summer will set the trend if the poitive sentiment will continue or is just a last minute jump - though at the moment it seems that will stay and market sentiments are better.

subscribers? do they have any? given how feeble their paywall is its only the oldies that will be coughing up moolah for their daily dose of Hoskings..

Once Were Journalists

Just providing some more data out today, you do what you like with it

Go ask all the Auckland investors selling up. Plenty of recent listings we've looked at are rentals being sold off.
Edit: just received a text from one real estate agent selling off her own rental asking if we were still interested.. bringing forward the deadline sale date (by two days?) because someone finally made an offer

Yes agreed, both NZ and Australia we're carried aloft by Chinese money during the GFC and didn't really feel it's effects like the rest of the Western world did.

Thanks GGP

The answer isn't no. There are many possible answers, each with their own pros and cons. The powers that be prefer maintaining the status quo and pushing it forward.

Unsure why it should be categorised as a 'game' - Not complaining BUT we're talking about future generations here, If they been told to save/prudent. Then Mr. Orr suggest to spend, the kids ask you is that your best answer? With our skills, we can always jump ship easily. Not bound to this 'local game'. Some people with limited skills/training can only opt to be 'in the game', we're not fortunately.

Oh yes I forgot about that one. We should revive and extend. Probably everyone is too depressed after the AB's SF loss to carry on with anything so mundane as buying and selling houses?

then add the leverage impact on your equity to determine the inflation adjusted return on the initial equity deposit ....

Depends if you paid in local earnings or sent in money from overseas. With the NZ dollar going down, it's a greater decline if one bought from overseas a few years back.

With just one house going way above like old times (57 Nelson street sold for more than 1.3 million with a cv of 840000)- RE Agents are using it as a benchmark to push the market as got to know through 66 Howe which has a CV of 815000 and was sold in 2016 for 760000 and now expecting 1.1 or 1.2 million (though encoraging buyer over million - which in itself, if sold is a fantastic price for vendor to get $200000 or $250000 in 3 years that is a profit of more than than $1400 Per week and this is when the market is suppose to be down)

You are correct it is wait and see how the market trennds by December

and antibiotic for std treatment

Purely speculative mania because no yield at the bank, and they're frightened of the sharemarket, because they went belly-up in a purely speculative mania 32 years ago.

*cats

I don't believe for a minute that they are truly independent.

Dude, I would be the last person to buy and live in Christchurch.. my coloured skin and people in CHCH with red sunburn on their necks don't mix!

I think he is highly exposed and worried. Otherwise why would he take so much concern in what us DGMs are saying.
If he was so confident, I don't think he would even bother.
I'm here primarily to be part of a group that has an informal mandate to provide some much needed balance to all the BS on real estate that dominates the media. If the media doesn't provide the balance, at least us DGMs on Interest will!!!!!

Of Course.
Please post the article you can find about the prevalence of Skinheads in ChCh. That is not years old.
Haven’t seen any for 10 years.