Net migration gain down by a third over the last three years

Property

Net migration gain of 41,479 in the 12 months to November, down from 62,407 three years ago

23rd Jan 20, 12:59pm by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration has declined by a third over the last three years, according to the latest figures from Statistics NZ.

These show that that the net gain (long term arrivals minus long term departures) from migration peaked at 62,407 in the 12 months to November 2016, and then declined over each of the following three years to 41,479 in the 12 months to November 2019, down 33.5%.

The decline has mainly been caused by an increase in the number of people leaving the country long term and a smaller decrease in those arriving long term.

In the 12 months to November 2016 there were 145,391 long term arrivals, which declined steadily to 137,000 in the 12 months to November 2019 (-5.8%), while the number of long term departures increased from 82,984 to 95,521 (+15.1%) over the same period.

New Zealand citizens travelling long term were by far the biggest group for both long term arrivals and departures, with 34,742 arriving back in the country after an extended stay overseas while 43,504 departed long term, giving a net loss 8762 New Zealand citizens.

Making up for that was a net gain of 50,241 non-New Zealand citizens, with the biggest source countries being South Africa 10,617, India 7186, The Philippines 6810, China and Hong Kong 3499, Australia 2747 and Samoa 2126.

By visa category the biggest group of arrivals were Australian and New Zealand citizens 41,626 (30.4% of all long term arrivals), followed by those on work visas 32,715 (23.9%), long term visitor visas 25,225 (18.4%), student visas 24,220 (17.7%) and residency visas 11,997 (8.8%).

However, the latest figures are estimates and may be subject to revision because under the system of gathering migration information that Statistics NZ uses, it takes 17 months before migration figures are finalised.

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53 Comments

by Brock Landers | 23rd Jan 20, 1:11pm 1579738269

Native kiwis being driven out and replaced.

by GV 27 | 23rd Jan 20, 1:37pm 1579739837

I wouldn't get too wound up about Native Kiwis leaving - I'd be more interested to know what the quality of migrants leaving NZ is vs. the ones we are importing. If we're going to be taking on more people than we can house ad infinitum then we better at least be replacing the skillsets and tax base we are losing.

by middleman1 | 23rd Jan 20, 2:58pm 1579744700

GV27. Might be an indication in NZ's stagnant per capita productivity that we are indeed barely 'replacing the skillsets of those we are losing'.

by Masher | 23rd Jan 20, 5:46pm 1579754795

Happy to share given the anonymity. Qualified accountant, graduated 10 years ago from Otago. During that time I lived in Melbourne, Toronto, London. Came back to NZ 2018, left 2019.

Was on good money overseas. Management positions. I was prepared for the pay cut coming back to NZ but was really offput by how much that was, and what the scope of work typically was in these roles. After working in tech companies, concert promoters and sports overseas I was looking at concrete companies, local engineering firms or being some cubicled cog at Fonterra in NZ. For a career focussed person, it's depressing. Even with money aside, NZ lacks compared to other nations.

Money just drives the point home that you're stupid to stay. Left NZ with $140k being the best I got offered, got a job in Sydney 6 days later for $210k plus bonuses and some amazing perks.

Am I in a utopia? No. Is everything better? No. Is the weather unbearable? No. As a whole however, the quality of life, the opportunities available and my outlook on life is a lot more positive here in Australia than when I was in NZ.

by NZChinese | 24th Jan 20, 8:06pm 1579849566

Thanks for sharing this. I have a few friends moved to Aussie last year, and im also considering it. I'm a first gen immigrant, I graduated from auckland uni in 2008, and have worked in digital product ownership space since then. For my kind of work, $130k is the cap, and i have been stuck with it for almost 3 years. In general, I feel NZ doesn't offer enough opportunities for millennials. It's good to know the challenge im facing applies to natives too.

by Due Diligence | 23rd Jan 20, 1:11pm 1579738289

Another prediction that the scoundrel"BuyHighSellLow" nailed.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/97512/will-current-prosperity-last-will…

by nymad | 23rd Jan 20, 1:17pm 1579738662

Interesting. Do we just ignore December as a month, now?

by Due Diligence | 23rd Jan 20, 1:33pm 1579739601

It is the 12 months to November, so unless there was an exceptional inflow/outflow in December 2019 (i.e. December 2018 much different to December 2019), it is going to be pretty much spot on. Even if these numbers aren't inclusive of November 2019, still looking to be bang on.

by nymad | 23rd Jan 20, 2:04pm 1579741497

It is the 12 months to November
Yes. Exactly.
Your prediction was for 2020, which normally implies the 12 months from January to November.
Wait another month before you pat yourself on the back. However, many of your other predictions for 2020 can be debunked, if ya want to go ahead and do that...

by Due Diligence | 23rd Jan 20, 2:32pm 1579743176

Firstly, they are BHSL's predictions, not mine. Secondly, the prediction was for net migration for the 12 months of 2019. He made heaps of predictions, so you can't expect all of them to be correct, but anyone that took his Infratil and A2 Milk buy recommendations would be very happy today.

by nymad | 23rd Jan 20, 2:38pm 1579743500

And anyone who took your Air NZ buy advice or your Auckland Airport sell advice would be very unhappy today.

2 from 4 - no better than a coin flip.

by Due Diligence | 23rd Jan 20, 3:28pm 1579746526

Trust me, he is well up with infratil and A2 offsetting the rest. Anyone that took all his recommendations would be up too.

by Yvil | 23rd Jan 20, 5:40pm 1579754437

Stop being so petty Nymad, just admit that BLSH's predictions were really good

by The_4th_estate | 23rd Jan 20, 10:27pm 1579771667

Love that Infratil, Tilt is looking pretty handy....

by Wrong John | 23rd Jan 20, 1:37pm 1579739862

If you believe anything coming out of this part of the swamp, especially after a change with the methodology of how they calculate everything, then we are all bigger fools than they are. What we see above is a govt spin press release, poorly questioned by any media reprinting it, and reinforcing (sadly) that the demise of journalism in the media is both widespread & still ongoing. Come on interest.co you're better than this.

by J.C. | 23rd Jan 20, 2:30pm 1579743043

Spot on

by Rob | 23rd Jan 20, 1:42pm 1579740136

That's still a net gain of a small city in NZ. Where are there people being housed? What is the net gain in houses for the year? Unless there are enough new houses being created to house them in,we shouldn't be allowing anyone in, because we don't even hove enough houses for people already here.

by Beanie | 23rd Jan 20, 2:42pm 1579743736

Attended a Sustainable NZ Party roadshow meeting recently to hear their views on things....someone asked about high immigration, and they weren't against it. Follow up question was about the housing situation caused by the immigration, their answer was to have intensification that didn't look ugly. Sustainable??

by PocketAces | 23rd Jan 20, 2:59pm 1579744770

Sour grapes from a ticked off Vernon Tava, rejected for leader of the Greens, he's been like that ever since

by Fritz | 23rd Jan 20, 4:13pm 1579749218

Lame

by Kauri | 23rd Jan 20, 10:36pm 1579772169

Sustainable NZ is worse than useless. Sustainable Australia's main focus is reducing rapid population growth https://www.sustainableaustralia.org.au/

by Houseworks | 23rd Jan 20, 4:17pm 1579749442

"small city in NZ."
Around 1000 ha or more of suitable land needed at 400sqm sections and 2.5 people /home plus roads shops schools etc.

by my2c | 23rd Jan 20, 1:51pm 1579740691

"However, the latest figures are estimates and may be subject to revision because under the system of gathering migration information that Statistics NZ uses, it takes 17 months before migration figures are finalised."

What the heck, everything you mention is just meaningless dribble then.

by Foyle | 23rd Jan 20, 1:59pm 1579741169

It takes a long time for people arriving to be countable as immigrants - they often don't know themselves what they will do when they arrive - people can chose to stay or leave for all sorts for reasons. So we can't count them as permanent immigrants for some time.

by J.C. | 23rd Jan 20, 2:33pm 1579743186

So we can't count them as permanent immigrants for some time.

OK, then the data is at least retrospective and directional in nature. Just as long as those looking at the data are aware of its weakenesses.

by middleman1 | 23rd Jan 20, 3:03pm 1579745021

Stats NZ said in the same release that the final number could be +/- 1600.

by Noncents | 23rd Jan 20, 2:09pm 1579741773

I think we should just simplify. Start with just straight in v out.

After all, it is the amount of people in the country at any given time that are using the resources/facilities.

We may be gaining 50k a year. But on any given day it is highly likely we have another 10-15k. All using the roads, hospitals, sewerage, etc...

by The Rogue Pirate | 23rd Jan 20, 2:17pm 1579742264

Too little too late. If you can believe the figures, which are subject to "revision". So basically pointless!

by Davo36 | 23rd Jan 20, 4:09pm 1579748942

No mention of the change of the way they do the counting.

I think the 62,407 was under the old method and the 41,479 is under the new method. So there might not be any drop at all.

by mikekirk29 | 23rd Jan 20, 4:23pm 1579749792

A while back the China and HK total was top at about 10000. What happened? No wonder central Auckland ap sales down so much

by Davo36 | 23rd Jan 20, 6:53pm 1579758834

Assuming it's Chinese and HK people buying the apartments. Other ethnic groups might like them too?

by Lapun | 23rd Jan 20, 9:15pm 1579767322

I mentioned buying an apartment to a wealthy ethnic Chinese friend and she said having been brought up in poverty in a Hong Kong apartment there was no way she would ever move into an apartment.

by Kauri | 23rd Jan 20, 10:44pm 1579772656

Good point. I suspect most migrants don't move half way around the world with the ambition to stay in an apartment for the rest of their lives. Hence why if we keep up the mass migration we are destined to cover up more and more productive land with asphalt, concrete and ticky-tack.

by shawking | 24th Jan 20, 7:20am 1579803639

I have been speaking to a sales consultants for apartments in Auckland and most have been sold to Chinese so the facts don't' back up your statement.

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 20, 9:13am 1579810429

A wealthy HK Chinese vs. mainland Chinese with experience of massive apartment capital gains in Shenzen, Shanghai etc., perhaps?

by Lapun | 24th Jan 20, 9:49am 1579812570

Place to live -v- investment

by Fritz | 23rd Jan 20, 7:11pm 1579759914

Go the Saffas!

by b21 | 24th Jan 20, 12:18am 1579778312

And yet another immigration article in the property section.

by Graham Adams | 24th Jan 20, 12:50am 1579780229

So are we to conclude that Labour and NZ First have fulfilled their election campaign pledges to slash immigration, even if by doing nothing in particular?
It's very convenient as an election year begins that suddenly they appear to have been on the side of the angels all along. In fact, it would be unbelievable that a govt department could offer such unreliable figures if we hadn't had the Census debacle...

by Nzdan | 24th Jan 20, 6:54am 1579802064

They effectively achieved their target by increasing the number of long term departures by 15%. In other words, we've had our talent run off overseas.

by middleman1 | 24th Jan 20, 11:42am 1579819338

GrahamA. An excellent conspiracy theory but given the omnishambles the coalition have made of creating and deploying too many policies I suggest it'd be well beyond their capability to conceive let alone engineer a sophisticated charade to manipulate immigration data.

by Graham Adams | 24th Jan 20, 12:26pm 1579822016

Middleman, I agree entirely that the Coalition would not be up to the task of engineering a sophisticated charade. My point is that such a conspiracy theory might just be credible if Stats had a record of being efficient and accurate, in which case getting the figures so wrong would be astonishing and there might be reason to be suspicious. But given the Census shambles, who could be surprised that they don't have anything resembling a firm fix on migration numbers?

by middleman1 | 24th Jan 20, 1:07pm 1579824441

While in conspiracy mode, I've been intrigued at Winstons uncharacteristic zen like mode when confronted with the mounting migration that he promised but apparently failed to moderate, his famously cantankerous belligerence strangely muted. Which leads me to suspect he and his coalition of transparency have been well aware for a long time that migration flow numbers provided by stats were not only suspect but likely to be wildly inaccurate and overstated by the tens of thousands.

by Graham Adams | 24th Jan 20, 2:36pm 1579829763

I do remember in one interview about immigration a year ago Peters said confidently that numbers would come down. But that supposes he and the other members of govt knew something that Stats NZ apparently didn't. It's hard to see where that info might come from.
Even Grant Robertson after Treasury's Half Year update last September said Treasury's predictions of net immigration coming down to 35,000 by the end of the 2024 year were too low and he was confident they would stay around 50k, "where they are at the moment".

by AKLCrusader | 24th Jan 20, 9:14am 1579810499

2 words - "Brain Drain".

Kiwis have started leaving the country again, after spending 10 years since the GFC moving home.......

A major cause of the increase in net migration was kiwis staying or returning here, as the inbound migrants had lifted but not that much, now it seems like the pendulum has swung. Either they don't like what they see here, or they like more what they see overseas again now 10yrs after the GFC.

by Boatman | 24th Jan 20, 9:50am 1579812619

Its interesting that South Africans make up almost more than China , Hong Kong and India COMBINED !

by middleman1 | 24th Jan 20, 11:30am 1579818636

Boatman. Higher ppn of Saffas no bad thing in my view. I'll be labelled a dastardly racist no doubt but (a) the joy of being an older fart is that I don't care and (b) I think a case can be made that they integrate better than some other ethnicities.

by NZ Citizen | 24th Jan 20, 12:35pm 1579822530

I agree, at least they integrate well are hard working and like rugby!

by Camel's back | 24th Jan 20, 10:20am 1579814432

Statistics NZ... Sooo about maybe 40 to 50 thousand people perhaps, know more in 17 months.
That is still too many.. But keep those guesses coming, the media love it.

by middleman1 | 24th Jan 20, 11:33am 1579818837

With 37,000 extra people on welfare since Winston appointed the coalition to govern, we have to find people from somewhere to fill the gaps.

by Camel's back | 24th Jan 20, 12:29pm 1579822190

So 37,000 extra people on welfare and the answer is... import more people?

by middleman1 | 24th Jan 20, 12:55pm 1579823742

Camel'sB. Yep, increasing welfare dependency allows you to maintain the grand social experiment of radically and forever changing the culture of the country through mass migration. You even have the fiendish right wing business lobby on your side bleating that they can't find enough workers locally. No need for a mandate from the people.

by NZ Citizen | 24th Jan 20, 12:34pm 1579822452

Kia ora

Again I say the fabric on New Zealand society is changing. When did the K(iwi) people sign off on this?

To quote Peter Hitchen "The Society we grew up in is unrecognizable".

Nga mihi