Sales achieved on 46% of the properties at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz

Sales achieved on 46% of the properties at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz

Nearly twice as many homes are being offered at auction compared to this time last year.

In the week from 6-12 July, interest.co.nz monitored 253 residential property auctions, which was up 86% compared to the 136 auctions in the equivalent week (8-14 July) of last year.

The sales rate was also higher, with 116 sales recorded in the week from 6-12 July this year, which gave an overall sales rate of 46%, compared to 50 sales recorded in the equivalent week of last year which gave a sales rate of 37%.

However auction activity is still well below the peak of where it was in March just prior to the COVID-19 lockdown commencing.

In the week of 9-15 March, interest.co.nz monitored 341 auctions and recorded sales on 194, giving an overall sales rate of 57%.

Even so, the current level of auction activity is extremely respectable given that we are now in the middle of winter.

Auction prices also appear firm.

In the week from 6-12 July this year, interest.co.nz was able to match selling prices with the rating valuations of 98 of the 116 properties that sold.

Of those, 81% achieved prices that were higher than their rating valuations.

In the week of 9-15 March, 75% of selling prices were above their rating valuations and in the week of 8-14 July last year only 54% were higher than their rating valuations.

Details of the individual properties offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz and the results achieved, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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77 Comments

I have a business connected to the residential RE industry and we are busier than I can remember for a long time. Many, many, many FHBs.

FHBs have cancelled overseas holidays and OEs so are now bored. "Can't travel so we might as well buy a house". Three of my wife's co-workers have bought their FHs recently. It's crazy. It seem once a youngun decides they are going to buy, it's like they put aside all rational thought and relentlessly bid until they have what they want. So much pent up demand after the 9 (now 12 really) years.

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That just doesn't seem like a plausible explanation. People planning OEs are a different demographic than people planning to buy a first home. They tend to be younger, single, and they money they might have saved for an OE would be unlikely to be anywhere near enough for the deposit on a house.

My thoughts exactly. A family trip overseas with 2 kids is $10 k, 20k if you going to Europe

Yes and no...

A typical OE can cost $20k-$40k if not working - depending on how extravagant you make it. Say if you've got 10-15k kiwisaver + fhb allowance + additional savings + partner/parent contribution, you can be up around the 20% of a $500k house. Few of my friends from CHCH have done this - most of us have just accepted travel is off the cards for the next few years.

Exactly.

Depends what you consider rational! Many would have been putting off buying waiting for the supposed crash. If covid doesn’t crash the market you have to wonder what will! Does anyone really believe it’s a bubble any more? If so what will it take to pop it?
I think low interest rates are probably the main reason people are out buying.

If that’s not a bubble then I don’t know what is....

https://www.properazzi.co.nz/articles/the-property-market-cycles-of-the-...

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But in 6 months time it will crash 40%. If it doesn't just wait 6 months more. Just need to be patient and perfectly time the bottom. Don't read too much into friends purchasing a home, providing for their family and creating a stable environment for their kids. It's more important to wait for the prices to come down to what they are really worth, doesn't matter if that's 40% or 60% below the current levels. If the prices go up instead, it's solely the bank's, the government's and the immigrant's fault. Simply lobby for more random taxes like backyard tax, garage tax, roof tax, window tax to control/deter people from buying houses.

Have you seen any mortgagee auctions yet?

For what its worth, I've been keeping an eye on the number of properties for sale on trademe listed as mortgagee sales. In the past month or so it's gone from 18 to 29.

That isn't much for the size of the country. IMO what will affect things is employment, and how that tracks. IMO lowing interest rates if just causing house prices to rise even more, and FHBs to get into more debt.

Hi Stev-O

That's brilliant!

A lovely piece of satire with abundant meaning.

Well done!

TTP

We have shown interest in 2 houses in recent weeks and both agents asked if i would be able to pay cash ? one wonders why. Banks are being careful with lending only offering 80% mortgage , could this indicate they expect a drop in prices .
Also there would be several months where not much happened creating pent up demand .
A recession is likely around the corner , will this slow demand as we begin to see the tide going out exposing those who have been swimming naked .
An armchair view .

"both agents asked if i would be able to pay cash ? one wonders why."
Agents vetting buyers possibly. And buying a house 'as is' would be another very valid reason. Agents have to represent the vendors interests and depending on the method of sale the purchasers ability to borrow would be a pertinent factor in deciding who to contract with

Also don't forget to mention the 20% equity limit has been removed, so likely this is helping a lot of FHBs into the market. Whilst simultaneously adding mountains of risk to the financial system, but don't talk about that...

I can confirm, I have 2 siblings who have bought their first homes in the last 2 months, and both only bought because their OEs were cancelled and they luckily got pretty good refunds.
Plus my brother in law is now trading up to a nicer house after he and his fiancée had to cancel their wedding and honeymoon scheduled for April, and they also managed to get a fair amount of money back. I understand now they are just doing a small ceremony and putting the rest of the money towards the new house instead.

"Of those, 81% achieved prices that were higher than their rating valuations."
Clearly no significant fall as yet . . . . but yes, measures still in place supporting wages and mortgage deferrals.
Some contraction still being expected such as noted by Core Logic and latest bank reports. However, RBNZ, banks, and CoreLogic expectations of around 10% are seemingly realistic - and it is even possible that these could be at the upper range.
However, a community outbreak of Covid, further lock downs and the economic consequences of that would change that. We live in interesting and uncertain times.

Some contraction still being expected such as noted by Core Logic and latest bank reports. However, RBNZ, banks, and CoreLogic expectations of around 10% are seemingly realistic....

Most of what you read from these 'opinion leaders' is not some kind of infallible forecasting. It's largely propaganda that is designed to influence atttitudes and behavior as well as to create impressions that are unlikely to create dissonance with its stakeholders. People are far too pious in the way they listen to these 'appointed magicians of future wealth'. Behaviorally, there are many parallels with the Middle Ages as to how people are manipulated.

JC
So we are then to believe those on this site who are claiming 50% falls, or who have - by their own admission - claimed a bubble burst for the past five years.
I recall Westpac last winter forecasting an upturn (7%) and being roundly criticised and laughed at by these same people on this site. Trouble was, pre-Covid Westpac proved to be right - actually spot on with their 7%.
Come on!
Great conspiracy theory there CJ.

Public forums are not some reservoir of truth. They are largely places where people bandy around the"I reckon" method to understanding future outcomes. And if you think people who work for NZ banks or media have some kind of ability to know the future as it pertains to asset prices, why would be they sitting at the end of the world on arguably meager incomes? If this mythical power really existed, they would be living on a private Carribean Island fielding phone calls from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

JC
Your clearly do not understand what economic forecasting is about.
It is about considering the existing variables and factors and using models to make estimates of the future likelihood.
There would not be one recognised bank or recognised forecaster who would say that they are going to be exactly correct 100% of the time.
However forecasting is a basic premise for sound economic planning and decision making. Are these decisions going to be correct 100% of the time? Of course not.
However you seem dismissive (both today and previous posts) of recognised forecasting by those who have experience and the modelling tools and seemingly hold the unsubstantiated claims by the anonymous keyboard warriors in higher regard.
Good luck to you and stick with your conspiracy theory.

Your clearly do not understand what economic forecasting is about.

OK. I was not the one gushing about the ability of Westpac to predict short-term house price movements. You were. If you know Westpac's forecasting model and its limitations, then feel free to share. You won't because you don't know. That's a fact. You're simply the audience for the Westpac media release.

However you seem dismissive (both today and previous posts) of recognised forecasting by those who have experience and the modelling tools and seemingly hold the unsubstantiated claims by the anonymous keyboard warriors in higher regard.

Hence my reference to the similarities between the modern day peasants and those of the Middle Ages. Don't question the great sages of Westpac is exactly how the medieval peasants behaved relative to the Church (even if they have no idea what the Westpac model even looks like or have the ability to understand it). And no, I clearly stated that the "keyboard warriors" (that includes you) follow the "I reckon" model of forecasting.

Having experience in group decision making and policy setting, often what gets presented to the public/company staff isn’t the truth based on the information gathered, but more what we want/ed the public or staff to believe or presentation of a/the desired outcome.

You can imagine if the banks ran their forecasting and it came back with a significantly bad outcome, there’s no point in releasing that to the public so they never would. But of course P8 appears to have blind faith that others with information are wise, informed, principled and honest. It could well be the opposite in my view. And the history of banks and financial forecasting data always need to swallowed with a bucket or two of salt.

When guys like Hisco come out and say things like property and debt levels are getting too high - that’s the warning you should be looking at. Not the ‘our forecast suggests a 7.324675% fall by Xmas’

You can imagine if the banks ran their forecasting and it came back with a significantly bad outcome, there’s no point in releasing that to the public so they never would.

Here's an idea. Why don't the banks just make all their forecasting models available to the public? I wonder what kind of response that would evoke.

The key point is that bank economists - and other recognised and respected commentators - do not simply come out and state a single figure regarding house price movement. If one cares to read a variety of reports they will clearly outline what they consider the factors are in their rationale; JC your above post above suggests you are not familiar with these. Anyone involved in making financial decisions - such as buying property - should read a variety of these and come to their own but informed decision.
Rather than simply outright rubbishing their figures - especially on the basis of a conspiracy theory - consideration should be give to these and should form the basis of discussion on this site.
What I see is quite a number of keyboard warriors on this site making unsubstantiated one liner wild claims - much like a bunny at the races just guesses winners. JC is seemingly wanting to defend those doing so.
As an example, I find posters who simply outright and constantly rubbish Orr and the RBNZ without providing any rationale is common on this site and is beyond being bunnies.
This is not to say one should hold banks, RBNZ and respected commentators beyond question - however one needs to substantiate that and that is not happening. JC simply dismissing them on the basis of a unsubstantiated conspiracy theory adds absolutely nothing to worthwhile informed discussion or debate.

The key point is that bank economists - and other recognised and respected commentators - do not simply come out and state a figure regarding house price movement.

No they use models. If these models were really effective, these models would be able to forecast property crashes. Of course, not one bank has ever predicted a ousing price crash in modern economic times. But that's only part of the story. People think "Westpac forecast high prices would rise x%, and they did, so Westpac's modelling must be something special" (even though these people have no idea how these models work or their margin or error).

It's actually similar to companies like Nielsen who use econometric models to forecast the optimal marketing mix and the success of innovations. While these models are quite useful to some extent, companies such as P&G know these models are largely directional. Smart businesspeople challenge Nielsen while the desk jockeys blindly accept what they say ("Nielsen is the biggest consumer research company in the world so they must be right"?.

The irony is that Nielsen as a company is in the process of breaking up and their stock price is down close to 80%. Furthermore, the largest FMCG companies in the world no longer see Nielsen as some kind of sage.

JC
Not an exact science.
But not a game of unsubstantiated guesses or conspiracy theories.

As I said, they use models that people like yourself do not understand. You shouldn't take that personally, it's just the reality. And because you don't understand the models, you cannot understand the limitations of their models. You simply consume the media release and evaluate based on your subjective feelings, which is influenced by what you want to believe. If you can't accept that, you're your own worst enemy.

Exactly, and do not forget RVs are from 3 years ago!

The main cost of a home, lending rates, has gone down a ton. I refixed some debt last week, it came off 3 years at 5.1 and I locked in at half that.

I have bought a few run down properties since lockdown. Will renovate and rent out. I was half hoping more people would "wait and see" for a year but it certainly hasn't happened. I bid on two others to renovate to sell (trade) but lost out to competition.

Oh my, sorry for you but you chose to get into that.

It's unbelievable how strong the RE market still is

Not really; when the majority of commentators on this site think we are in for a big fall you know it will be the opposite!

It's not just the commenters on this site though (I agree it would be pretty stupid to base your financial decisions off of anonymous forum comments). Its just about every bank and economist. Christ, even Bindi indicated the other day that she expects prices to fall.

Do you realize that what you are happy about causes pain and homelessness across the country right?

How do you conclude that I'm happy about something from me saying: "It's unbelievable how strong the RE market still is" ? I didn't associate any qualitative in my comment of good or bad, happy or sad. Please stop presuming.
It's the middle of winter, 2 months before an election, these are 2 major points that should depress RE, even before considering CV. Yes I'm surprised how strong (both in volume and values) the RE market is

I do since I have read your comments in the past. Are you not?

Not happy neither sad, it was just an observation. I don't care much about emotion when it comes to RE, I prefer focusing on facts. BTW I have sold my house in May, renting for 12 months but yes I own other RE so one foot in each "camp" I suppose

If we do not look at the human side of every aspect of life, RE included then we are all doomed.

I agree with your sweeping, very general comment about the human side. Interest is a business site though, its motto is "helping you make financial decisions". To make good financial decisions, it's best to put emotion aside and focus on facts.
I'm sure there are other sites better suited for you to discuss the important questions about ethics and morals

So according you you I should put aside ethics when making financial decisions and not to talk about it because of the motto of this website? This is a low and lazy argument!

We all tend to find reasons to justify our actions when we know or suspect they may have negative effects on others, but your reasons are just lacking empathy and really hope you do not come across too many people that think the same in your own life.

You love to misrepresent what I'm saying and trying to make yourself look better because you think you've got a higher moral compass. Not interested in your twisted arguments.
My original comment was simply observing that the RE market was still surprisingly strong. Somehow you twist in to a moral argument, go argue with yourself

Falacia ad hominem might make you feel better but won't make your arguments more valid.

There was no argument. Just one person trying to start one!

Thanks HH

RBNZ low interest rate policy blowing a bigger asset bubble. This wont help them meet their inflation target or unemployment target. But the retail banks will be happy to see house prices stable and maybe that is the real goal of the policy.

How does one find the ratio of auction sales versus normal sales for this period? I've asked Dr google, but he's got no idea?

Well if there has been a spike in property sales especially in Auckland, it will be most likely due to Hong Kong Chinese looking for some where safe to stash their cash due to the recent upheavals here. So this selling spike isn't going to be sustainable. Even earlier this year (January) Barfoot & Thompson were crowing about how Chinese buyers "Still made up 25 per cent of its sales."

So now that you have some very motivated overseas HK buyers looking for a "Cash safe havens" in property, Then it seem fairly obvious just where a good chunk of that money is coming from.

Stuff article Jan 2020: Real estate agents target Chinese New Year buyer boom. https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/118997122/real-esta...

Juwai article: Chinese show interest in New Zealand properties despite ban on foreign buyers. https://list.juwai.com/news/2020/01/chinese-show-interest-new-zealand-pr...

Well if there has been a spike in property sales especially in Auckland, it will be most likely due to Hong Kong Chinese looking for some where safe to stash their cash due to the recent upheavals here

Fool's gold in believing someone from HK is going to knock on your door and offer you a king's ransom for your piece of suburbia. Whoever is selling this nonsense to the public should think about their own reputation in the greater scheme of things. People like Ashley Church run the risk of going from modern-day prophet to pariah.

I still doubt that there has been much in the way of property price increases, hence why I said "if". Though looking at the recent auction results there seems to have less selling below RV which would indicate a sudden cash injection in to the market. I also doubt that it's First Time Buyers who are stumping up a $1million+ to afford a home. So the money has to becoming from some where.

So how do you reconcile the margin of error on the sales results of 100-odd auctions with actual market reality in unparalled economic disruption? This is the problem with our media-saturated society where people have given up on independent thought.

“Human Beings are to independent thinking as cats are to swimming. They can do it, but they prefer not to."

- Daniel Kahneman, Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making

Yip I think any investor/market participant should read Thinking Fast and Slow and watch his YouTube content. It may change the way you look at humans and their ability to make good decisions.

Yip I think any investor/market participant should read Thinking Fast and Slow and watch his YouTube content. It may change the way you look at humans and their ability to make good decisions.

People get upset when confronted with the reality that their decisions are guided by System 1 thinking. And this is no different with buying assets such as houses, investments, boats, cars, etc. Those professionals who understand (consciously or subconsciously) this stand to do very well the world of finance, retail banking, real estate, etc. The more than people think they're making rational, well considered decisions (System 2), the more they're actually guided by System 1. That is the trick. Making people believe they're making the System 2 decision, even if they're not.

JC, Cutting through your waffle, you still haven't answered my million dollar question: Do you honestly think that First Time Buyers are stumping up the money to be able to afford a $Million+ price tag? If so how?

There are some New Residential Mortgage Lending stats here up to May 2020:
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c31

All borrower types: 4318
FHB of above was: 801 (19%)
Other owner occupier: 2586
Investor: 895
Business: 36

Auction room nearly twice as busy..........

More than boom, is it not an indicator of more people fearing drop in price as a result rushing to sell as soon as ?

But do agree that market has resisted the consequence of panademic uptill now but as many experts and commentors knows that October/ November will be the crucial month for housing market - Make or Break months - So wait and Watch.

richard
Agreed that level of auction activity is not necessarily strongly correlated with the strength of the market.
Auction is a more commonly preferred method of marketing when there is uncertainty of market price - whether that be a rising or falling market.
Fixed price - or even sale by negotiation - are less preferred marketing options when there is price uncertainty.
However, I find auction sale prices vs RV as a very good real time indicator, pay some attention to clearance rates, but far less attention to volumes of sales.

Or are there simply more people using the auction method because the RE agents dont have the knowledge to put an asking price on it?

Even so, the current level of auction activity is extremely respectable given that we are now in the middle of winter.

Auction prices also appear firm.

Agree as even now RE Agents are not shying away from asking price expectation mote than RV or near around RV and they seem to confident and rightly so as are able to sell at decent/ premium price even today even if it passes in Auction with few expectation.

Important Question is will it hold - not only housing market but also Stock market as is purely supported and promoted by printing and distribution of money by government resulting in bonanza for many except those that have directly lose their job at the moment which is approx 4% of population - earlier unemployment was 4% and if now is 8% than approx 4% Is the additional damage till now though many in tourism sector and Regions are affected but STILL those that are not affected and have got bonus/ free money are making the most out of it.

Will be interesting to see what happens near around / after election. Will the housing market hold or and this applies to stock market also.

There is a lot of buyer activity in strong regional centres, with a low level of listings.
No discernible price drops yet.
Perhaps the banks and economists predictions of a 15% fall in prices is more of a precautionary measure to dampen over borrowing and a bit of equity insurance for new entrants.

Perhaps the banks and economists predictions of a 15% fall in prices is more of a precautionary measure to dampen over borrowing and a bit of equity insurance for new entrants

Oh. Are you suggesting that banks / economists are using constructed predictions through the media to try to influence behavior?

Outrageous allegation, I know! Lol
Maybe they would get a better result if they just admitted that the property market is going gangbusters again for the next year or so. Then buyers might get more cautious, as they wish them to do..

Ray White tried selling 3 townhouses on Mamaku Street this week. All failed to sell, oddly not in the stats.

I haven't heard of any if the higher end new builds in the bays selling in the past few months.

Maybe there is a rush of FHBs but it certainly isnt being mirrored in the higher end suburbs.

I've was contacted by an agent in the last week about new builds being available, but "off the market" at discounted pricing. Although "discount" may just be marketing. I wasn't interested too interested and had work to do so pushed them aside

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Owners trying to get out and uninformed FHB taking the bait of the mass media, not surprising at all.

Just sorry for all those that will end up with negative equity after the stimulus wears out.

Wage subsidy ends before election so will not be surprised if extends in different format under some pretext though indicating will not do.

Come what may, it is important for the government to ensure that feel rich feeling is maintained by ensuring that asset ponzi continues, which is possible by printing and free distribution of money.

It is possible though don not think there would be much support for that to continue unless there's a new outbreak (Labour must have their own polls) and taking into account that the effects won't be felt right away but maybe a couple of months after the election they might postpone making a decision.

I have a property up for sale at the moment and have been blown away by the interest so far.
We had agents from a few different companies come to view before listing and some of the agents were not sounding very confident in the market so they didn’t get the listing.
It just went up on trademe etc last week and already the agents are frantically scheduling extra open homes and making them half a day rather than 2 hours to cater for the amount of people wanting to view.

Where

In the Waikato, a rural property.

Hope it goes very well. Who did you get to market it for you, Bayleys rural?

Thanks, actually with LJ Hooker.
Not the first company I thought of for marketing a rural property but after meeting with agents from a few different companies I was most impressed by them.
In addition they actually put in a solid pitch to get our listing including a nice discount on the commission.
Now we just need to see if offers come across the table after the first round of viewings.

What.. you didn't select Tim TTP to do the selling for you. Big, big disappointment!

So listings are high and sales rates proportionally so. Prices are being maintained even if this is being benchmarked against 3 year old valuations.

How could this be explained? Pent up demand? We’ve been out of lockdown almost 2 months now. Fear prices might drop? Perhaps, but why are we not seeing the beginning of this decline with a relatively flooded market?

Anyone want to offer a possible explanation?

My guess is that a large number of investors are trying to get out before the Government stimulus wears out, at the same time a number FHB are both motivated by the removal of the LVR restrictions as well as lacking proper information about the economic situation due to the poor information spread by the mass media and their shareholders.

Prices are already well down specially in tourist spots and Auckland CBD apartments or flat, there are a few articles on this website and others where this data is available.

more likely a combo of FHB's entering and more precisely multi-property highly geared landlords looking to exit poor return properties to generate some cash as the banks are tightening credit criteria also shifting how freq some small businesses (inc Landlords) are reviewed.