Strong turnaround in people's house price expectations in the three months to the end of October

Strong turnaround in people's house price expectations in the three months to the end of October

There has been a sharp turnaround in housing confidence with a big majority of people thinking house prices will keep rising, according to ASB's latest Housing Confidence Survey.

Done over the three months to the end of October, the survey found 57% of respondents from across New Zealand expect house prices to keep increasing, while just 12% expect them to decrease. This is a reversal from the previous three months (to the end of July) when more people expected prices to fall than to rise.

The October figures were the highest expectation of house price rises in the survey's 24 year history.

Expectations of price rises were weakest in Auckland and strongest in the rest of the North Island, but a big majority of respondents in all parts of the country expected prices to keep rising.

However the survey found almost no change in people's overall interest rate expectations, with 40% of respondents expecting them to fall further, 32% expecting them to stay the same, 11% expecting them to rise and 18% who didn't know one way or the other.

Expectations of price rises seem to have had a bigger impact on people's perceptions of whether it's a good time to buy than their expectations around around interest rates.

Across the entire country, 26% of respondents thought it was a good time to buy a house, 14% thought it was a bad time, 47% thought it was neither a good nor bad time, and 13% didn't know one way or the other.

Overall, that meant sentiment was sightly more positive than negative, but it was less positive than it was in the previous three months.

"We suspect affordability is the issue," ASB's report on the survey results said.

"We tend to observe a pretty strong inverse relationship between the level of house price inflation and perceptions of whether it's a good time to buy."

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Housing confidence

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Source: ASB
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Source: ASB

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188 Comments

25
up

Land too expensive to grow food on, houses too expensive for a huge chunk of the population to live in.
Sounds like a recipe for revolution to me

A revolution would be preferable to the constant bleating.

.. but the revolution would not stop the bleating .. therefore is pointless.

Imagine the bleating from the vested interest group if CGT, LVR, DTI, etc were introduced. They would be stomping their spoilt little feet and screaming about how their 2 million capital gains were all earned by their genius investing.

That revolution didn't last long.

Or Auckland independence? LOL

.

The DGM beg to differ from scientific surveys.......

They can't shake off their "crash"mentality.

Never mind; bless them.

TTP

11
up

TTP your multiple accounts are getting out of hand lately.

Watch out for Yvil/Hook aswell.

Hi b21,

Still no substantive comment from you.

TTP (There's only one TTP.)

His passive aggressive user names are revealing.

15
up

Only 57% of people expect prices to increase? Are the others on drugs? RBNZ have spent most of this year dumping petrol on a fire and have said they have no intention of stopping.

I expect the rest are completely oblivious of what's going on or they are actually well informed.

Well Squishy, there have been several commenters on this site who have very recently predicted house price crashes

Come on Yvil, you sold your Property in Ponsonby a few months back and took the chips off the table. You clearly had a bet each way and didn't want it all in housing. Yes I predicted a crash but just changed my mind based on the government response and moved on and got back into the property market in late September so looking back who made the better decision now ?

"Overall, that meant sentiment was sightly more positive than negative, but it was less positive than it was in the previous three months."

"We suspect affordability is the issue," ASB's report on the survey results said.

- Hold up, aren't we being told by some users here that's its more affordable than ever to buy?

If investors are piling up property based on expectations of price increases, then IRD just has to look in its toolskit . Just give CB6 more teeth. If a owner's rental income on investment property is negative, then what was his original intent in purchasing it? To make a gain on disposal ? Presumed intent. Its easy for IRD to reverse the burden of proof and put the onus on the owner to prove otherwise.

And any investor with more than two brain cells to rub together will pull out a chart of rents that trends upwards and say ' i expect income to be positive in a couple of years'

And IRD will pull out their charts and say we expect insurance costs and rates and maintenance to far outweigh said rent inflation.

He isn’t just referring to rent inflation. As you pay down a mortgage (even if it is interest only for now, the presumption is that it will eventually be paid down) the interest cost drops making your property more positively geared. On a zero mortgage it is near impossible for your rates and insurance to consume all your rent.

11
up

I like it. Make landlords prove their property is cashflow positive or treat it as a speculative investment.

Sounds like to many if ands and buts, aka an accountant's dream. Just do the flat land tax. Simple and unavoidable.

We just need to ban investment in properties in high density and low affordability areas for as long as it is necessary and wages catch up with current prices or viceversa.

Far too many wealthy and influential people involved in property investment/speculation for any Government to genuinely tackle the ongoing obscene cost of housing in NZ.
Vested interests are involved here.

I tend to be more optimistic about what we people can achieve if we really put our minds into it. As history can tell it just takes ongoing injustice and a tiny spark to get things moving although obviously results have diverged.

If you think the existing stock is too expensive then just build some cheaper stock in the same area? Once there is enough cheap stock in the area prices will drop. The real problem in NZ is the cost to build which can run to hundreds of thousands before a shovel ever even hits the ground.

I agree. Building costs in NZ are ridiculous. Moreover, all too often the final product is a leaky, low-quality s...tbox.
The costs and the low quality of NZ builds are shocking - I have been to many countries in my working life, and I must say that the housing stock in NZ is worse than that of many third-world countries. Absolutely appalling.

I do not think any smart investors are getting into the market right now but I would expect the exact opposite, the sentiment about now being a good time to buy has sharply dropped (which could as well be the article's header BTW) and it is usually them the ones that take the lead on this since they are usually better informed than usual buyers.

18
up

When house prices are rising on a weekly basis...supported by by RBNZ and Government.... what else do you expect.

THIS IS NOT RISE IN EXPECTATION BUT REALISATION THAT COME WHAT MAY, MR ORR AND MR ROBERTSON WILL DO ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING TO PROMOTE THE PONZI.

A complete sell out against their core voting block. It is truly funny to watch.

Thankfully politicians never flip-flop on their promises, and the rising tide of public revolt won't make a bit of difference

They do flip flop Ezy- Recently JA flipped from CGT to no CGT despite recommendation by the tax committee set up for it as it suited her.

But you are correct that politicans all creed are thick skin and a country needs leaders who are able to take bold decession for the country as a whole.

Not most but all politicians are spineless. JA has a perfect opportunity to bring about change with majority but lacks vision and are into vote bank politics.

13
up

Don’t know how people can contemplate buying in the current market situation, if they have to get a big loan. High probability it’s a bubble.

Yeah prices could double from here but they could drop 30% also. If it's the latter I guess the question is can the new owner hold through it. Or of course unemployment jumps they probably can't but we shall see. Personaly too much risk for me

They’ve just gone up by 20% in the last 12 months! During one of the biggest economic slow downs ever recorded.

The speculators are hoping an asteroid wipes out the planet so house prices jump 50%.

I have heard that there is an after life for property, it's that powerful

The main mechanism by which the reserve bank supports economic stability is through increasing asset values so that people feel wealthier and spend more. This extra spending props up other businesses whose employees in turn spend in yet other businesses.
The alternative is making asset owners feel poorer and thus more defensive with their spending which causes businesses to fold due to a lack of customers, their employees then can’t spend at other businesses causing those to fold as well.

Is that in their mandate? Orr said house prices aren't his gig.

The "Risk" has always been there and will never go away. What the current Government has clearly signaled is that they are going to prop up property no matter what and the evidence of this is now crystal clear to see so the perceived risk has had a reversal in just 3 months. If I had to make a prediction your going to see house prices double again between 2016 and 2026. Totally insane but thats the way the monetary system we have adopted works, money creation comes from debt. The risk analysis should be going into the bigger picture, the whole monetary system collapsing under its own weight.

Good comment Carlos, based on logic rather than emotion

Is removing risk from a 'free market' logical?

I'm a proponent for a free market, but we havent had one of those for years. You could say the breaking of the gold back in 1971 was the final nail in the coffin. If the cost of money is not accurately available (ie it is currently being artificially suppressed by central banks) then you cant have a properly functioning market, let a lone a free market.

Well, they have no choice, three quarters of the NZ economy is housing (The banks lending books illustrate this). They'll never let it collapse. I'm expecting first home buyers grants to begin rolling out anytime now. Why they allowed NZ (plus other countries Oz, Canada etc) to get into this situation is crazy. It'll never do an Ireland 2.0 because NZ etc own their own currencies.

14
up

Because at the rate of rent increases, it STILL makes sense to buy vs rent in a lot of cases. Lines for open homes are 20m long. If you're lucky enough to even be invited to a rental viewing you're competing with 20 others. If, like me, you've moved multiple times in the past few years simply because your rental is to be put on the market with vacant possession, you get very sick of sitting in the tumble drier whilst houses are being traded from under your feet. Buying, even in a crazy market, gives a FHB a sense of security that they simply do not have as a renter.

Obviously my own experience is not universal, but I've been flatting / renting in Auckland for 23 years. Over that time I've lived in 7 houses. Only 2 of those times was I forced to move by the landlord selling etc. We've been in our current place in the central suburbs for 5 years. I love the area, perfect for our lifestyle, I would never buy here! Even at a miserly 4% interest the mortgage on our house would be DOUBLE what we pay in rent. Very happy to invest that difference instead in more liquid assets.

4% is a bit steep in today's landscape

10
up

I live in Auckland, and am now halfway through my third move in five years as a renter.
Twice because the owner wanted to sell, this time because they want to move in themselves.
I've learnt it's a bad sign when they suddenly develop an interest in spending money on things like roofs or replacing old plumbing.

Sorry to hear that, that sucks

I could literally feel the smirk as you typed that.

LASSET, good you're happy to rent but I'm not sure about your calculation. You live in central Auckland so let's assume that the house is worth $1 million. Hypothetically if you borrowed the full $1 milion at 2.5% (not 4%) you'd pay $25'000 pa interest. Note you can't add principal repayment for comparing it with rent because principal is money that goes back into your own pocket and after the 23 years you talk about, you have pretty close to a mortgage free home which you don't have when you rent. So add rates $4k pa insurance $1k pa and maintenance $5k pa, now the cost of owning your house is $35'000 pa. That's the same as paying $673 rent pw.
Are you really paying less (half you state) than $673 pw in rent in central Auckland?

But you can and you must add principal, insurance and maintenance to the cash flow calculations, as they all have to be paid from Lasset's income.
And the principal flows from your pocket to the banks, you just (eventually) get full ownership of the material asset.

Correct pragmatist, we need the cashflow from our salary's to pay all of that on a weekly basis. We could barely manage it now, but there simply isn't enough cashflow to afford it if interest rates rise. Not a situation I want to find ourselves in.

You're not far off, our current property is worth approximately 1.2M. Rent is $580 per week. Goes up about $25 a year. Landlord purchased in 2009 for around $380,000. Clearly there's zero yield if he brought in this market. And there's no way I'm purchasing a property now assuming interest will be a long term 2.5%. On a million dollar property we simply would have to sell up if rates hit 4-5%. And if that happens a lot of people will be forced to sell, and if that happens you won't be getting top dollar... We could very easily end up in a situation where we had no house and still owed the bank. No thanks. Every time I've run the numbers over 25 years to see which way we retire with more money, it's a coin flip between purchasing a house, or renting and investing. It's very close, it depends entirely on the actual performance of each. But buying is significantly more risky and limiting for us in my opinion.

As the value of the property goes up the rental yield goes down. Whilst your calculations may make sense at 1 million. They do not for 5 million dollar homes where the rental yield can be circa 2% (which is lower than mortgage interest rates for owner occupiers). Investors get 1/3 of that interest rate off as a tax deduction making their holding costs effectively neutral on a property like that.

Before we bought last November we were renting a 3 bedroom house in Meadowbank for $750 per week.
The house has a value of about $1.5 million (probably on the low side). Assuming a 200k deposit, and a 25 year mortgage at 2.5% interest that would be more than $1300 per week, a huge difference.

But $625 of that is effectively savings

Have never seen the emotion - FOMO as strong as now, people are throwing everything with realization that government and reserve bank are all working to promote housing market as being the only economy in NZ.

It is bad when FHB are now taking huge risk and borrowing much beyond specially in current situation when future is unknown. By artificially inflating housing prices reserve bank and Government are playing with fire BUT both do not have long term vision.

Government and Reserve bank have tied themselves in a knot that come what may they cannot afford the ponzi to stop now and the more they try and and keep on trying tighter the knot gets and a time will come when the reset will be bloody.

Hi Stuart, what would you suggest FHB's do in these circumstances?

FHB should do what they have always done, assess how strong their employment situation is going forward and do the math on their salaries and if they can afford an entry level house then buy one. The limiting factor is now poor pay, which will see you renting for life or else you have a mental barrier to the commitment required to buy a house and are not prepared to compromise your lifestyle at all to get your foot in the door.

What's the price of an entry level property in Auckland? How do you plan to move up the property ladder in say 5 years with 20% price rises p.a.?

Nifty
"How do you plan to move up the property ladder in say 5 years with 20% price rises p.a.?"
Clearly you do not understand the very basic concept of equity multiplier.
A simplistic example:
Consider if one has a $600,000 house one has 20% equity ($120,000) and a mortgage of $480,000); if house prices rise 20% then the house will be worth 20% more being $720,000 but one's mortgage (considering no down payment of principal) will still be $480,000 but one's equity will now be $240,000.
In this case one's equity has not increased by 20% but rather 100% doubling as it is now not $120,000 but $240,000.
If that step up house was originally $200,000 more than the first home; it has increased 20% from $800,000 to $960,000.
With one's equity from the first house $240,000, that provides 25% equity in that $960,000 house.
Yes a simplistic example; one has a bigger mortgage but one would be paying down a minimal amount of the mortgage, but also presumably saving for the step up house. And I wouldn't be worrying about that bigger mortgage - the more expensive the house and bigger the mortgage, the bigger the equity leveraging effect.
So that is what is called moving up the property ladder - with mortgages fixed and house price inflation home owners (and property investors) are getting exception increases on their equity.
Going by your comment you should have learnt something today.

No. It depends on not just if you can afford it. It depends mostly on what you are buying and at what price. Otherwise you are stealing from your future self who could be mortgage free and instead keep paying interest to the bank for life.

Thank you, you have answered Stuart's question for me.

Agree.
Buy if you can, and have reasonable job security.
But don't pay over the odds.
This all assumes you can get enough of a deposit together, with prices so high.

22
up

Anyone in need of an emetic? This might help
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/123538204/why-im-proud-to-be-a...
In it King has the temerity to state landlords provide homes (this is the bit that had me running for a bucket). Landlords provide nothing of the sort, a home is where you decide how long you live there, a home is where you can have a garden, pets, hang pictures on walls, PAINT the walls even. A home gives you a stake in your community, not fear of maybe losing it any time, not being able to afford it next month as even while interest rates drop, your rent increases.
We really must do something to rid ourselves of the rentier culture, it has much to answer for in the breakdown of our society

Thanks for the summary. I didn't click on it because I didn't want Mr King to get the views. Landlords buy houses other people want to make into homes. Maybe 20% of homes ideally would be rentals to allow for temporary population flows. THAT would be provision of a service.

We actually need more investors to increase the supply of rental properties. We are part of the housing solution, not part of the problem. Remember, a property investor provides tenants with a home; they are not traders or speculators buying and selling properties.

How many houses did Landlords build last year? How many prospective FHBers were outbid by prospective Landlords, who use leverage and interest only lending to push the price above market price trends? Claiming to be the solution when they are the problem.

We personally tend to build / massively renovate one every 3 or so years. The problem is first home buyers bidding emotionally for homes with far more land than they need. This drives up the cost for investors who want to build an extra house or 2 on that same land and makes the resulting new house that much more expensive.

Having a secure home, where you make the decisions, where you bring up your family, maybe grow some veges to feed them, maybe a few pets, IS an emotional thing. People look back on their childhood homes with much nostaglia, there won't much of that for so many in the future. Perhaps more emotion is needed, maybe to the point where the greedy investors understand that, step aside and let someone have a HOME!!

Well said.

Semantic point.

Landlords do provide homes... longterm homes.

The problem is in Kiwi land that most landlords are actually speculating but still pass themselves off as landlords. They are in it for the short term capital gain and then... oh look oops, God just made $500k gain.

The actual number of buy and hold longterm landlords in NZ is extremely low. With the new tenant biased regulations that number will get even lower.

So King is right but it's a semantic point and thanks to IRDs lack of teeth enforcing taxation this is where it's all got messed up. People think most landlords are investors but they're not, they're just speculating.

Legit speculators; traders pay full tax the whole way incl GST and any other property is tainted by that.

Q: what time period were people given when asked if they thought prices would continue to rise?
Was it next 3,6,12m ?
Otherwise it is pretty meaningless.
Since all media been telling public this for last 5 months + the evidence of their own eyes and experience, it is not exactly a boat rocker.
Real headline might have been selected as : 26% thought it a good time to buy a house, or 74% did not

The RBNZ has no morals. They have done so much damage to community cohesion. It is everyone out for themselves now. I used to like my fellow kiwis, in fact I had a bit of a bond, now I look at them and feel nothing but disappointment mixed with contempt.

10
up

Really?People are only in for themselves?
Well blow me down.
I don't know what planet you've been on but people are in it for themselves and their families first and foremost and has always been so.
I'm sorry that you have missed out on getting the properties you wanted but there is only one person responsible for that.

YES......YOU!!!!

11
up

Sorry buddy I'm not responsible for your ineptitude.
One suspects your tune might have been considerably different had you had the wherewithal to act sooner rather than bleat about how unfair things are.

13
up

I am not like you. I would not invest in property if it meant pushing other people further away from a basic human need. I would rather pull other people up than push them down. I have empathy for the less fortunate. What event in your life made you so greedy and horrible? Where you bullied in school, is that it? Seriously, I would like to know why so many kiwis have become like you?

Are you homeless?

Yes

Where are you living? In a car? Under a bridge? Have you approached WINZ or housing NZ?

In a friends house. Booked to leave NZ mid December. Came to buy, prices rose too much. Time to go to a country that appreciates me, my work ethic and my $300k.

So hardly lacking in any "basic human needs" then. All the best.

I'm sorry I am not living on the street mate. I know that would have made you happier.

If you're going to bleat about how poor you are you shouldn't be waving $300k around. Real homeless people don't have $300k in the bank, no sympathy here pal.

I really do not want your sympathy my dear friend, believe me.

Clearly you do, whinging on this site all day while sitting on $300k. You know you're in a first world country when the beggars have $300k in the bank.

Stop clogging up the forum with your drivel and leave already. I am assuming your constant bleating will cease once you leave.

10
up

In the real world $300k means something. In NZ $300k it is nothing in property terms. I will leave soon and then you and your back slapping buddies can get on with congratulating yourselves on what great investors you are whilst in reality you have not got a clue. Now get back to looking in the mirror and telling yourself what a Heavy G you are ; )

Touched a nerve there, sorry if you feel bullied. A change is as good as a holiday and I am sure things will be better where you are going. Hopefully your new home will help you get rid of that chip on your shoulder:)

How original (yawn)

If you are truly homeless you have my sympathy but you say you are homeless and you have $300k…

Please save your fake sympathy for somebody else.

Also $300k is a 50% deposit on an average house in Gisborne, probably more like 60% deposit when you arrived there. I find it hard to feel sorry for you, I think there are plenty of people in a much worse situation than you, wouldn't you say so?

I am leaving mate, because of people like you.

One less person to pay a boomers pension

His replacement is already boarding the plane.

Be careful of blaming others for your own unhappiness....no good comes from it.

You don't know me or my situation yet you choose to imply certain things that are patently untrue.
Suffice to say I am not a greedy or heartless person and the childish and ridiculous suggestion that I was bullied at school,well I suggest you need to have a bit of a time out.
I'm not better than you or vice versa and I don't happen to be a property investor.
What i am though is someone who believes in the absolute right of people to choose what they do with THEIR own money.
Should everyone have a roof over their heads?Absolutely.Should they own that roof? I'm not sure that's necessarily as important.
I have been a long term renter,and a property owner and business owner and invested in the sharemarket over the years.To date I have not purchased a rental property.Will I at some point?I don't know.
What I do know is that EVERY thing I do is for my family and if I can help other people I do.
You do not have a monopoly on caring or the moral high ground.

Top post Banana

Dp

Touched a nerve perhaps? I am sorry if you were bullied.

I wasn't and no you're not.

I am truly sorry mate. I condone bullying of any kind. I hope you are ok.

Of course you would condone it given your posts.

I despise bullies but I have no problem bullying a bully.

Banana has every right to be aggrieved by your rude post when you insult him and call him greedy, horrible and bullied at school. You reply "Touched a nerve perhaps" is childish, grow up Orrsome

Actually by owning properties I have been able to dramatically HELP people get the basic human needs of a home to securely raise families near schools - Like many non-professional landlords (only own a handful and self manage not 20+) I rent well under market value (save 8% management fees plus the rest where managers put an extra $150 on the bill for making a ph call to arrange an electrician to change a light bulb) - My tenants dont complain much, are happy, have pets, make minor alternations (plants, garden, gates) - I guarantee I have impacted positively more people in regards to having a happy living situation than someone like you who makes a ridiculous claim that they don't buy property for some altruistic humanitarian reason when really you simply 'missed the boat', and are gutted you're 300k savings can't buy much these days while on paper every palmy dumpster I've bought (and renovated with heatpumps, insulation, new carpet to very good housing) have increased by about you're life savings in last 3 years alone - not that I care as I bought them as a business, where I provide below market rental accommodation to very happy customers - a business which is easy to be both good morally and make money as its so easy to under-cut rents and service offered by 'professional property managers' - However, sad reality is labour are making so much red tape many of us good sort landlords will sell or move to property managers to offload liabilities to them (in which they will cover themselves by further increasing fees and therefore rents).

Trying to convince me or yourself there mate? You may have a conscience deep down. It must be a struggle trying to justify the damage you are doing.

I'm not deluded enough to think my actions are the cause of a nations problematic housing market. 3 year terms and short sighted politicians who want votes not authentic change (or say 'we can't do much positive change from opposition, lets ditch real policy and say more nice slogans') are the ones who have caused the damage.

I emailed the minister in 2006 regarding the RMA and every plain to see issue NZ property prices had in NZ ( inelastic supply response ) which has been clearly documented in the 'Demographia' studies (forwards done by ex RBNZ govs, Ex PMs Bill English etc, they all know what to do) going back to before 2010 - No reply, response or actual change. I don't make the rules, I've played the cards I've been dealt, I made over a mill by my 30s while keeping families very happy in their homes and while mainly focusing on my career. You might have a different hand dealt to you (born later than me? I'm a millennial not a X gen or boomer) but you can still understand the world, the rules, and play the hand you're dealt. Whinging about bad cards is never going to help though.

I think you need to look up Dissociative identity disorder.

Narcissistic Personality Disorder. We have rather conducive environmental factors for it in New Zealand. I honestly wish I was just joking here. It's serious. We desperately need an honest assessment of what our 'kiwi values' actually look like in the harsh light of reality. We are building a very sick society.

NZ or all modern society ? (even eastern these days eg tiktok).

Agree with you there

You all think you are so needed to benevolently provide shelter, always insisting that you are amongst the rare few that actually charge below market rent. Never mind the fact that even then, the rent you charge takes up far too much of your tenants incomes. Even if you are a decent landlord, as far as that can be said - the landlording culture here, is enormously detrimental to the health of our society. Your tenants are still paying far too much of their incomes for your benefit, just to have a roof over their heads. With no real security, difficulty in saving anything towards owning their own home after accounting for the basic cost of living, as they watch prices skyrocket out of reach.

You are deluding yourself, if you think you are not a part of the problem here. If you are such a 'good sort' landlord, what 'red tape' are you so afraid of, that would make you think of selling up your rentals? I've read through all the changes, and while many of them are welcome, they do not go far enough to truly protect tenants and regulate landlords/property managers.

If what you do was the norm, this comments thread would not exist

Yeah, dumb young people. They are absolutely inept for not being born earlier. They need to hold themselves personally responsible for their age. Ingrates.

They are so lazy for not being conceived earlier. Its completely their own fault.

bobbles, have you ever considered that you are extremely lucky to be born in a country like NZ? You could have been born in Somalia, North Korea, a favela in South America, a poor island in Indonesia, a ghetto in Africa etc… Would it not be better to acknowledge how lucky you (and I) are rather than looking for the bad?

Yvil - Do those other countries have suicide rates as high as NZ? (they may have, I haven't looked). And if not, then could it be that material wealth isn't correlated to well being?

If NZ is so wonderful, why do we have such bad mental health and suicide stats?

Wonderful, I hope a few here will watch the video

Haha yes living with aids in your own shit in a hut makes people happier than living in a country like NZ. How bizarre.

This is an invalid logical argument. According to this I would assume you would not clean your house since you know there are some much dirtier houses around?

What? … huh???… Really, what????? So complaining for being born in a certain year is fine but being happy about being born in a certain place is illogical and akin to not washing your house??????? What ??????????

This is _also_ an invalid logical argument, since you are trying to rebate my point claiming something totally unrelated I did not even say.

Oh I thank my lucky stars I was born in NZ everyday.

Is your logic "You were born in NZ, therefore you have zero rights to complain about NZ"?

What an illogical point of view. Your position is: There are some places worse than this place, therefore you cannot try and improve this place, even if it has problems. Or put it another way: Until we are bad as other places, we should not try to improve ourselves.

But it's a nice way to try and distract from the real issue - younger generations are near guaranteed to be worse off than their parents. And some people run the line that it is their fault, for not being born earlier.

Sympathize for you mate and wouldn't want to be a first home buyer now but tbh the rentals I bought there was no competition. They were extremely run down in dodgy areas so no one else was interested. I was the only buyer and the agents were desperate to offload them. On that basis you can't say all other property buyers block others from buying because in my case there was not a single other buyer.

dp

Oh goody another thread on how morally bankrupt property investors are and how they should be brought to task by the righteous.

21
up

Too right. And may they long continue until every kiwi has an affordable roof over their head, and specuvestors grow some and invest in business productivity instead of supporting this unraveling of the fabric of NZ life. This is a lazy, entitled approach which can’t go on forever. There are plenty of inspired areas to invest if you get off of your bums and do the research.

Ah the lazy and entitled.....

26
up

Pathetic response.

I'm a medical specialist, and would wager I've worked harder than you'll ever know, and I absolutely agree with SQ. There is no envy, I could comfortably afford a decent home, even at today's prices. I only have contempt for people with attitudes like yours. If you don't think that ever-rising house prices is a major societal issue, then either you're not smart enough to understand why, or completely lacking a moral compass.

Oh well done you!A medical specialist!
No I can't possibly imagine how I could have worked as hard as you to gain the things I've got.
Btw I'm no property investor but clearly I need a bit of work on my moral direction(having said that it's not as if I need to choose whether I let someone live or die or live in constant pain).
Luckily for me I married a MEDICAL SPECIALIST so they do the thinking and the moral stuff for me.
It's just as well I've got BUCKETLOADS of attitude though.

You seem very likeable.

It's not his fault, he was bullied, leave him be.

Oh I am.
I'm a nice person.I help people where and when I can.
I believe my partner and friends and colleagues would agree.
Oh and sometimes I work pretty hard.

There is far more land in NZ that is cheap than there is land that is expensive. The problem is that everyone wants the expensive land (hence the price).

As far as basic human need for shelter goes, kiwis can easily buy enough land to build a house on for $100k in most of NZ. They just don’t want to buy rural land and build a house, they want developed land that someone else has already built on.

The complaint that living rurally means you are far from the people who would employ you is rubbish in my view. Just start your own business it costs less than $200 to start a company in NZ. The majority of people will claim that not everyone can start a business, but that is more to do with the lifestyle they want than the actual difficulty of starting a business. Trying to immediately make minimum wage when you start a business is difficult, but if you are willing to put in the time and effort whilst accepting that you may need to pay yourself less than minimum wage for a few years, almost any sensible business can thrive.

If starting your own business is not your cup of tea, there are rural communities just crying out for labour all over NZ. You can buy rural land in within a couple of hours drive of a massive chunk of NZ horticulture for very low prices. You’ll just not be particularly close to shopping outlets or night clubs.

The argument that housing as the basic human need for shelter is expensive does not stack up. What is expensive is desirable housing close to desirable amenities and DESIRABLE jobs.

This weekend I attended to a few open homes in West Auckland areas expecting them to be as busy as everyone seems to say, to my surprise just one home had someone else inside talking to the agent and a couple of houses going for auction this week had no registered bidders yet. Maybe as a result of Black Friday weekend? Hard to tell but the market didn't seem as "buoyant" or "hot" as they seem to be painting it.

Hi b21. Well my metric at present is how many new listings there are per day in Auckland.
Av for last 6 days is 176.
Prev 6 days it was 213
Peak was (one day) 5th November when it was 256.
Dropping off 3 weeks ahead of usual Dec10th norm.
mania is moderating

Thank you for sharing the numbers, this confirms my experience was probably not a one off.

Opposite to my experience on the North Shore - open home was packed.

Yes seems manic down here in BOP.
Open home mid afternoon on Thursday in street next to ours was packed.

Wellington packed too. Total feeding frenzy.

b21... went to two open homes in New Plymouth last weekend. Nobody at either one and nobody on either sign sheet.

A ban on offshore oil and gas, and a global oil price drop will have far reaching consequences for Taranaki

Everyone knows that house prices are rising by thousands on a daily basis and still both RBNZ and Government are onky thinking (as forced to state) AND NOT ACTING.

How come were so proactive that when they felt that market may fall at that time were so swift that acted ovetnight even without thinking and ignoring basic fundamental, so why not not act in a similar proactive manner.

Went to an open home out of interest over the weekend in Auckland (CV 1million). It was packed, about a 50% split of young FHB's - a lot with parent support. And the other 50% boomers. There was one boomer talking the realestate agent asking how much he had to offer to get the property taken off the market. The real estate agent was awkwardly trying to get the boomer to shut up but he persisted on asking. You could see how deflated the FHB's were that were listening in, knowing that this was another property that would be swept up within a week. You can pretty much guarantee that the property will go $300k+ over CV.

Interesting, this is right opposite to my experience in West Auckland, visiting a few open homes in my case.

This is one example on the Shore, so it could be a different story across the board.

Here's perhaps a glimpse of what the future holds. In Germany you can get a 30 year mortgage fixed for 15 years at 0.8%. These people are bartering their apartment. They're asking people to please not contact them unless they have a house to swap - they do not want cash.

Reminds me of a prediction by Austrian economist Antal Fekete.

This ditty about the property market brought a tear to my eye
The writer personifies the market ‘Someone else is stealing you away from me’
Now I’m no Bindi Norwell, but I suspect he’s talking about “specuvestors”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItgZ95oJ_sw

The media keeps banging on about how prices are going to double, triple, quadruple over the next 2, 5, 10 years. It's no wonder people think they are going to keep going up, it's all they hear ever hear about.

Just a matter of interest how the land prices have made it hard for first home buyers. In 1973 my wife and I were able to purchase a section in Napier for $5000.That took just over 12 months to save. The latest 2020 QV on that section is $385000.

That's a x77 increase. Have your wages gone up x77?

"Large-scale speculators like this guy make up less than 1% of the population but own one in six houses"

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/30-11-2020/one-simple-idea-to-fix-new-z...

Does anyone really think this is acceptable?

Absolutely not

Great news for those of us that were willing to take the punt over the past few years and not listen to the DGMs that frequent this forum.

Mike Kirk- can you please post some stats confirming your deep underlying bias to make sure the hot market keeps running?

Oh no, they have turned another one. All empathy deleted and a sour loathing of others introduced.

If by turned you mean make a wise financial decision then sure...

Another Buffet

I suspect that this is a puppet account of Flying high.

Same attitude and hostility, and B727 = Boeing 727, might be what he first flew on?

Even though our house has gone up 24% in value this year on the back of 25% last year, according to the median price, I don't feel any better off. Maybe we need to leverage it on a rental??

Either that or take out a loan against your house to buy a SUV & a boat for Christmas - you'll feel more rich in no time.

Disclaimer - actually just got a boat 2 months ago

We decided that with interest rates so low, why pay cash? That way we could have some rainy day cash if anything untoward came around

Interest rates at these levels are essentially free money. With inflation at a supposed 1.5-2% (although real inflation is much more like 7%+, and monetary inflation is up in the double digits) the real cost of borrowing money is only about 1%. And inflation rates are on a global race to the bottom. Sure they might go up temporarily at some point a few basis points, but the overall trend is down....

Pretty much. We don't intend to rack up loads of debt. Rather, spend the extra we have on things as the value of our dollar is eroded by inflation.

'At the end of the day' this is going to come down to the type of society we want to live in. If we want inequality and social division we should continue to walk this path. If you do not then you you will agree we should be taking steps to resolve the distortion in the market and bringing prices back down and home ownership rates back up.

Before the attacks of this online persona - remember that none of this is personal (attacking a profile of 'Independent_Observer' might make your ego feel better, but the persona is the voice of a group of people that in my opinion will grow stronger over the coming years - the more you attack it, the further you are going to distance yourself from a growing part of society). Its about a culture that is evolving - that in my opinion is negative and will have long term negative impacts on our way of life. This is about the quality of our communities and societies. If you think that the price of your house is more important than the quality of the community you live, then we have grounds that we disagree on and that is what we should be debating - not attacking each other and calling people 'DGM's'.

DGM 101

(head in hands.....is this how our society is going to be?)

We need to come together on these issues B727 and figure them out - not push each other further apart. I want to discuss the issues - should we do that do you think?

He's far too intelligent to converse with us IO. He made some intelligent financial decisions somehow knowing that a pandemic was going to come along and knowing that the RBNZ would drop interest rates, go overboard with QE and get rid of the LVR ratios. Absolute genius.

IO- here is your answer case and point!

Orrsum missed out on the latest market run and must disparage anyone who thought differently.

I did not forecast the interest rate drop, rather looked to the historical under-supply of housing in central Auckland suburbs and could not see the bubble burst most commenters predicted.

I know I wasn't alone in that conclusion but you continually rubbished those opinions until many stop posting.

Not that morals have a place in property development generally, but praying for the market crash and associated financial ruin for many seems substantially more negative than the current trajectory.

There is room for both sides on this debate but it starts by IO etc acknowledging their entrenched opinions are driven by shame of missing this market run.

"Not that morals have a place in property development generally"

This is exactly the problem. You can't see why our morals should have a place in property development? Financing etc? Why exactly should morals have to be put aside for any of these issues? You think there is a separation, where there is not. Operating without any moral responsibility in property development is detrimental to the wellbeing of others, to the health of our society as a whole. It's astounding that so many believe they can act in these areas, without any moral responsibility. Yet when they are affected in this way, they complain louder than everyone else who have long suffered from the choices made by others.

I think not only do we have a housing bubble but we also have society bubbles. People live in their own bubble and are oblivious to people who live outside of it. If you try and explain the inequalities they won't believe it, they don't see it on their daily basis in their bubble. They also don't want to know, they don't want their bubble burst. They'd rather blame people for how they've created there own bubble and the misfortunes they face.

What happens when 5000 + borrowers have to put their properties on the market in April 2021 when the mortgage deferral scheme ends. As they no longer have the income to pay even 2.5 % interest on their mortgage? As of 13/11. There are 3.9 bln worth of mortgages on full deferral. This number is ticking down.
12 Bln worth has been restructured to interest only. Assume those are coming off full defferal. This number is ticking up. 11,155 missed mortgage payments with a total exposure of 2.3 bln and average of 210k. Also ticking up
Seems like people are being taken off full deferral and converted to IO. On the basis that the bank wants them to pay at least the interest based on their new incomes. But those people can not adjust their spending to fit their new incomes and are missing mortgage payments. Probably missing consumer loan and credit card payments as well.
Going back to full deferral should not be an option. So next comes gentle pressure from banks to sell. Hence the stimulus applied over the last 8 months to ensure that every property owners equity has been pumped in the meantime.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Statistics/tables/c65...

12
up

In the face of a continued volley of attacks against us savers, I ended biting the bullet, going to the dark side and buying my first rental in Canterbury.

Furthermore, during the settlement process, the vendor allegedly contracted a case of Seller's remorse. (Allegedly back up offers / interest were piling up in behind my one that was higher than my own)

To add fuel to the fire. A mortgage broker stated I would probably be able to arrange financing to buy 3 more of the same type of property by putting up collateral against the equity my current home.

Now I understand what is happening and why this long in the tooth bubble refuses to burst.

In my sole opinion, this is stark raving madness. I personally feel even more livid now at the government inaction over the matter than prior to me embarking on the home buying process. (To be honest I'm surprised there is not yet protests in the streets).

Having witnessed what is happening, I feel people would be right to feel angry and disappointed at this current situation. If I was an actual first home buyer, I certainly would be.

Hold on, you feel bad about the problem and think it's stark raving madness...but you have just chosen to become part of the problem by buying rental? Perhaps even considering buying 3 more? You now have interests for the market to increase in value even more and yields to increase. You've just said a big FU to FHB's. Just out to make money at any cost like everyone else I guess.

Some people can't afford to take the moral high ground. Just how it is

I'm sorry, but I feel I had to act at least in some way to arrest any further erosion of my hard earned savings. Who knows when this is going to end? It's been going on for over a decade and the Government / RBNZ seem intent for what ever reason to see this continued.

While a broker has indicated I could buy 3 more properties. I am not intending to buy another one for a while.

Feel your pain, it's not easy have spare $ to burn. Like Yvil said yesterday, he hates being mortgage free on several properties. It's a real problem for a portion of society.

The NZ housing market is what the Dow Jones is to the US economy i.e. it is manipulated to maintain a wealth effect and confidence, to hell with any other consequences.

Big Business knows no bounds. Fiddling the books and subsidies are Paramount and deemed...essential by our Financial Idiots.

Fraud is big business. Aided and abetted by Financial Stupidity....Wish I was in Big Business...Like flying or building Orr making Robertson Helicopter Munny.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/revealed-grant-robertson-was-warned...

Houses got nuffin on these Guys....Eh!.

Oh and I never got my Million Dollar Subsidy at all...How dumb was I......One rule for one, One Million subsidies ...no sweat......Equity.

Equitable no.....where are the Policing in these matters...Cos it does matter.

Went to go to bunnings only to find it was closed off. Found out the building structure including car park has been found to have earthquake safety failings...the building can’t have even been built a decade ago. How many other dodgy builds are we going to find?

We'll find most of them next time there's a decent shake a la CTV Building

You just had to look at how many newish building were pulled down in Wellington and Hutt over the last few years due to EQ damage from the recent quakes. Some are designed to fail but not collapse in an EQ, and instead preserve life, but that doesn't mean that they are economic to repair.

Dude I know just got loaned 1.3 mil to buy his 4th rental with no money down. He's 37 and has no other job.

If you look at Aucklands house prices compared to other regions in NZ, including the price of Auckland Kiwibuild homes, the prices don't actually look too bad in Auckland. I think the rest of NZ maybe overcooked. I was listening to a property expert at the weekend and he thought that the prices in the regions in NZ had nearly got to a peak for the time being, but Auckland was going to have another pricing surge in the next year.
But interest rates can't go much lower, and the prices have been driven by the low interest rates, so how can they go much higher in the shorter term? Not unless people are going to be paid to take out mortgages. Otherwise people won't be able to service the actual capital repayment amount, let alone any rise to interest rates. It is all going to end in tears for some people, due to all the greed, and the people hurt will likely be FHBs, who are taking on the most risk IMO from all of this mess, due to always buying at a peak. Yet thousands of homes remain empty as investors sit on them.