Supply may be catching up with demand in Auckland's over heated housing market but there's still a shortage of stock in other regions

Well, turnover must be high then.
2 weeks ago, the 7 suburbs of Hibiscus Coast that make up 90% of its listings, had 295 listed.
Today it is 300.
Red Beach listed one property in last week.
January 1st the total was 253, so it is up 18.5% since then.
Of those listed 40 are not built in Silverdale.

I know people who are 'having a go" to see if they can get a really high price in this frenzy. If they get a ridiculously high offer they will sell.

25% or more of what is listed on RE NZ are not built yet.
It is likely that much of that stock that does sell, is being bought by investors to rent out.
At some stage, given lack of sufficient supply, there will be a drying up of stuff to sell that is built.
That of course shrives up price of whatever is decent, that comes OTM.
That decent stuff is selling 20% or more over CV but rest of stock is not, not in Stanmore Bay at least.
Sales are in bands, 5,11,19,30% + over CV, all resting on whether it has over 800m square and a view.
If not, then not attracting high bid offers.
Averages on prices rise in Auckland are highly misleading.
Did a sample in Torbay of sales in last 5 months and average of 30 properties was only 7% over CV

There's an avalanche of new builds coming to the market, and even more in the months to follow given the recent numbers in build consents. Most of these builds are targeting investors, at a time when many will be pushed out of the market due to the new LVR restrictions. Building at a rate of over 1000/month just in Auckland with no immigration and almost no population growth the so called shortage is shrinking fast yet all builders want their part of the cake. Number of returning kiwis is low and does not compensate the lack of immigration. Wait and enjoy the view.

Seems to me there is a bit of a trend in that the areas with large +ve jumps in new listings are the areas possibly the most affected by the border closure with tourism and student numbers reduced. Only exception to that is Taranaki but I think that is industry driven - heard a couple of weeks ago Waitara Valley methanol plant is shutting down, which is a bad sign for Motunui.

There is an historical high rate of new builds that has been at near peak for a for few years now. Years prior it was still high vs historical averages. With borders shut we will likely over build. Apart from the massive amount of infill projects everywhere, check out the size & number of new developments around Akl. I've not seen a building boom like this in the past 20 yrs.

This is what I call a good demand - supply behaviour. When buyers are ready, sellers will naturally provide.

It's when buyers aren't ready (no money, but wants their own house) that a phoney demand supply issue occurs.

Saying that, the average FHBs have only 15 days to secure a home their own before it becomes a dream- be quick and decisive. Nitpicking will backfire with hard consequences for years to come.

It wouldnt hurt everybody if prices fell or eased. How much of the total housing stock has traded since the Auck median went from 830 to 1030 ?, probably less than 2%, so really very few homeowners would be affected if lets say it went back to 830k.

Good time to cash out and reduce debt. Yield math will never be better than it is now with lowest rates in history.

Stock numbers have crashed in Tauranga. When I started looking a year ago it was nearly 1100 and today on Trade-Me its 440. Just about everything now going to Auction, no surprises there in this market.