Net migration gain of just 6327 in April year, down from 90,038 in April 2020 year

Property

The number of New Zealand citizens returning long-term at its lowest level since records began in 2002

14th Jun 21, 12:08pm by Greg Ninness

New Zealand's net population gain from migration was just 6327 in the 12 months to the end of April, compared to 90,038 in the 12 months to April 2020, according to Statistics NZ.

The breakdown of long-term arrivals and departures in the 12 months to April was as follows, with figures for the 12 months to April 2020 in brackets:

Arrivals

NZ citizens 24,734 (45,365).

Non-NZ citizens 14,437 (132,087).

Total all citizenships 39,171 (177,451).

Departures

NZ citizens 8943 (32,244).

Non-NZ citizens 23,909 (55,169).

Total all citizenships 32,843 (87,413).

Net Gain/Loss

NZ citizens 15,800 (13,121).

Non-NZ citizens -9472 (76,918).

Total all citizenships 6327 (90,038).

As the above figures show, there was net gain gain of 15,800 NZ citizens in the year to April and a net loss of 9472 citizens of other countries, as more NZ citizens arrived back from extended stays overseas than left long-term. The reverse is true for non-NZ citizens.

However, the number of NZ citizens coming back is still well down on previous years. In the 12 months to April it was at its lowest level since Statistics NZ began collating the figures under its current methodology in 2002.

The reason there was a net gain of NZ citizens over the 12 months to April was that the number of NZ citizens leaving long-term for other countries has declined at an even greater rate than long-term arrivals.

Of the 39,171 people who arrived long-term in the 12 months to April, 26,380 were NZ or Australian citizens, 5144 had residence visas, 370 had student visas, 5295 had visitor visas, 1534 had work visas and 448 had other types of visas.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Net long term migration

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Source: Statistics NZ

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47 Comments

by Camel's back | 14th Jun 21, 12:16pm 1623629775

Good... shame it took a pandemic.

by Foxglove. | 14th Jun 21, 12:56pm 1623632166

The near vertical growth during mostly 2019 is telling. There is no other period quite like it. In reality it is inexplicable because that government, before coming to power in 2017, gave no indication of such policy and my recollection was that they were indicating pre election of a slow down? So where the heck would that graph be sitting now if it wasn’t for the pandemic?

by JustAnOpinion | 14th Jun 21, 1:05pm 1623632753

Oh you with your "policy" and "indications" comments, I think someone needs a hug. And then we can do a mural of the hug.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/jacinda-ardern-hijab-photo-to-be-tur…

by custard | 14th Jun 21, 2:48pm 1623638926

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125043897/population-policy-debate-com…

“In 2019 we had one of the highest net migration inflows per head of population, with 11.4 per 1000 people, compared to 2.4 per 1000 in Britain and 3.8 per 1000 in the United States.”

While grappling with a housing shortage and clogged, inadequate infrastructure who on earth in government thought 11.4 per 1000 was a good idea – it just lacks any semblance of common sense.

by Nzdan | 14th Jun 21, 5:59pm 1623650387

I'm curious. Who actually decides the numbers of migrants that come into the country? Like, if a political party comes into power and instructs immigration NZ to reduce net migration to 10k what's stopping immigration NZ from continuing with 100k p.a.?

by custard | 14th Jun 21, 7:33pm 1623655996

I would understand government would set policy and any corresponding “numbers” – INZ are there to simply implement said policy.

I think government has possibly been lazy/sloppy in setting and policing policy implementation – and so INZ have merrily rolled on as best they see fit.

I assume the head of INZ would report to the minister?

Could be wrong.

by AKLCrusader | 15th Jun 21, 11:27am 1623713250

Probably the closing of offshore office and centralisation of the resource back to NZ, then understaffing the office here. That means even if INZ wanted to speed things up, they aren't capable of doing it.
Effectively defunding immigration to get the desired outcome, while pretending it is nothing to do with them.

by Plutocracy | 14th Jun 21, 12:25pm 1623630329

We need quite a few more years of this.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 14th Jun 21, 12:34pm 1623630856

Fascinating to see which side of the ledger accelerates fastest.

by Squishy | 14th Jun 21, 12:59pm 1623632378

15,800. Where are all the New Zealanders returning home that Prime Minister Ardern scapegoated for house price rises last year on the Mike Hosking show? Thank God the 80,000 people Winston Peters asked to return didn't, houses would probably be in the billion dollar range by now!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/coronavirus-winston-peters-tells-80000-ki…

by JustAnOpinion | 14th Jun 21, 1:17pm 1623633464

I was amongst many I am sure to field calls from those thinking of returning. After a brief chat they determined they valued houses over hugs so elected to not return. It turns out you can buy property in London (which will certainly have less maintenance requirements) and access all that London has to offer for the same price as a place in Mangere. I'm still burning from my hug rejection.

by Squishy | 14th Jun 21, 1:58pm 1623635900

Ah, yes, but how could that crumbling old pile that is Tower Bridge in London ever compare to the timeless, iconic design that is Māngere Motorway Bridge? It's just the history and cultural importance of Māngere that make it one of the great cities of the world. If you are tired of Māngere you are tired of life.

by JohnfromtheTron | 14th Jun 21, 2:05pm 1623636318

Who is this Winston Peters person you speak of?

by Carlos67 | 14th Jun 21, 2:40pm 1623638437

Thats still a high number returning looking for a house. Also are all those returnees loaded ? Someone is still buying houses and the money has to come from somewhere. Clearly some cashed up Kiwi's making the trip home to NZ earlier than they had maybe planned ? Just numbers don't tell the whole story do they.

by ikimpaul | 14th Jun 21, 9:12pm 1623661954

Please try not to buy into the Mainstream Media (and Jacinda's) propoganda

But if you must ... I'll help you with the figures

A net 15 800 Kiwis arrived in NZ in 2020 vs a net 13 121 kiwis in 2019 - so 2700 more Kiwis (or less than 1000 houses) returned to NZ in 2020 than the year before.

Given the small increase in NZ returnees I'm pretty sure they didnt pump the entire NZ housing Market up by $300 billion.

Jacinda Lied/ The Media lied - the only people who are responsible for the housing market completely running out of control are all the people that believed the lies that immigrants/ expats etc were driving up house prices and they needed to get in before they missed out.

In other words the general populations stupidity is the problem.

by Squishy | 14th Jun 21, 11:48pm 1623671296

The fault was all mine, I expected a politician to tell the truth and got exactly what I deserved. They can't help it, it's in their nature.

by AKLCrusader | 15th Jun 21, 11:29am 1623713384

Oh, and the wealth effect of free money.... that might have had something to do with it

by CourtJester | 14th Jun 21, 1:08pm 1623632913

That 90k from the year before really scares me. Insanity. How many of those are dairy managers and petrol station clerks, Indian / Chinese restaurant 'chefs' etc?

by JustAnOpinion | 14th Jun 21, 1:13pm 1623633193

lol almost all of them, but if we cannot, will not, bring ourselves to have a conversation about people who will not work then what is to be done? Be assured that as soon as we can get rid of MIQ 90k will be back on-line

by Plutocracy | 14th Jun 21, 1:27pm 1623634036

have a conversation about people who will not work then what is to be done

Offer more pay to try and attract job applicants?

by Palmtree08 | 15th Jun 21, 7:47am 1623700059

And the more pay comes from where? Fairy dust, or hiking prices. And the circus goes on.......

by JustAnOpinion | 14th Jun 21, 1:11pm 1623633076

It would be interesting to see the correlation between the variables of immigration, interest rates on mortgages and house prices. I expect them to be perfectly correlated.

But I am sure it is still a complete mystery to those in charge. Housing, to infinity and beyond since 2016.

by CourtJester | 14th Jun 21, 1:45pm 1623635145

It's only been what, 10 years? Gotta watch and wait a bit longer... and add more stimulus if there's even a remote chance of the dreaded house price "growth crash".

by WestieAJ | 14th Jun 21, 1:12pm 1623633131

Add 1/2 a million to the population of Auckland over 10 years. Dont spend on infrastructure. Billions flow to existing land owners. It rains all the time but we have no water. Our poo flows into the ocean when it rains.
The government controlled power station in Huntly burns 250,000 tonnes of Indonesian coal a month to keep the lights on in Auckland . Producing 670,000 tonnes of carbon emissions. Equivalent to the monthly emissions of 2.06 million 2021 model 2wd Ford Rangers travelling 1500 km per month.

by JustAnOpinion | 14th Jun 21, 1:14pm 1623633246

I can feel another hug coming on.

by Brock Landers | 14th Jun 21, 1:26pm 1623633997

Aroha.

by custard | 14th Jun 21, 5:01pm 1623646908

Talk about self-inflicted wounds in terms of infrastructure etc – quite bizarre really.

Again – what on earth was the government thinking?

Unfortunately the damage done is going to take some time to fix – and it’s going to be expensive.

Mass, out of control immigration made very little sense at the time – looking back it certainly makes absolutely no sense now.

by AKLCrusader | 15th Jun 21, 11:31am 1623713485

Would love to see this calculation publicised and show off the Emperor(ess) and her lack of clothes on climate reduction

by WestieAJ | 15th Jun 21, 12:07pm 1623715651

Basis of the calculation comes from here
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/125151189/budgets-car…
Here
https://tools.genless.govt.nz/businesses/wood-energy-calculators/co2-em…
and here
https://www.ford.co.nz/commercial/ranger/models/4wd-wildtrak-double-cab…
Can only hope the info is correct and my math as well. Only unknown is the grade of Indonesian coal that they a burning at Huntly. But assuming it is reasonable as those generators would have been designed to burn Huntly coal originally.
250000 tonnes of Bituminous coal burned will produce 670,000 tonnes of CO2. According to Genless Calculator
A 2021 2WD Ford Ranger will produce 216 gms of Carbon per km driven according to Ford. So 670,000 tonnes of carbon allows for 3101851851 km of Ford Ranger driving. Divide that by 1500km per month and you get the emissions of 2.06 million Ford Rangers.
I would have a guess and say that the current emissions from Huntly are at least equivalent to our countries entire active fleet of private vehicles.

by Jeff R | 14th Jun 21, 1:38pm 1623634702

These figures support our experience over the last 12 months. Of the 64 mortgage settlements to Kiwis overseas, only 9 told us that they were coming home soon. The main reasons for being overseas have not changed, the appetite for buying back home certainly have.

by custard | 14th Jun 21, 1:52pm 1623635530

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/labour-wins-on-immigration

October 2017 - “Prime Minister-designate Jacinda Ardern was firm last week in stating Labour would be sticking with its own immigration plan of reducing net migration by 20,000 to 30,000, and repeated it in the announcement of Labour's deal with New Zealand First”

Annual Net Migration: October 2017 - 55,353, therefore planned 35,000 to 25,000 moving forward one assumes.

So with 6,327 and 90,038 an annual average of around 48,000 over the last 24 months – even now with the help of a pandemic Ardern has still managed to fail in her stated objective by a considerable margin.

by Foxglove. | 14th Jun 21, 2:06pm 1623636403

All governments can be at times fairly accused of talking out of the side of their mouths. But this is about as bald and blatant as it can get. What is now very scary was the current PM’s unbridled glee, post 2020 election, at the mandate the electorate had entrusted to her government. Mandate for what precisely though? And now the mandate is starting to manifest. Taxes, taxes, taxes, same old Labour battle cry.

by custard | 14th Jun 21, 2:28pm 1623637688

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/10/jacinda-ardern-labour-t…

“Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll”

Late 2019 and their failures were starting to catch up with them – the way momentum was tracking at that point they stood a good chance of losing the 2020 – and with their failing 3 year track record becoming more apparent by the day a loss was certainly deserved.

The sheer stupidity of 90,000+ net migration was complete madness.

Covid, and our collective response ultimately saved them from themselves.

by rastus1 | 14th Jun 21, 4:26pm 1623644803

Public and media falling out of love. Getting hard to find someone who has much good to say about jacinda (she or her)...and I knew plenty who were fans, but fans no longer.

by Foxglove. | 14th Jun 21, 4:33pm 1623645223

The playing field has altered. Like it or not the EV iniative is a sop to the Greens policy ( and the bird to WP whilst at it.) And the Greens were sidelined by the electorate in 2020! The way it looks the Greens will be needed for Labour to govern next time. Not enjoying this present playing field? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

by house hunter | 14th Jun 21, 6:04pm 1623650664

Wealth tax will be back on the table!

by AKLCrusader | 15th Jun 21, 11:32am 1623713572

So Ardern generated COVID to get out of a PR hole? I knew they were sneaky...........

by kpnuts | 14th Jun 21, 2:04pm 1623636291

sad thing is that only a major Covid outbreak will keep the borders closed and the numbers down at sane levels!

Sadder thing is -- that we have still only vaccinated about 10% of the population - so its almost certain we will have the outbreak!

by gnx | 14th Jun 21, 4:29pm 1623644982

keep building 40,000 houses a year and only the need for 3000 for arrivals....mmmm

like a game of cricket this one....

and this new situation is with us for how long...seriously another couple of years?

could get interesting on the fifth day

by Nzdan | 14th Jun 21, 6:16pm 1623651388

Everyone is getting "baited" into the housing 1 way bet by leveraging up and buying rentals. Sure, they can fill them with tenants at the moment but it won't take much to tip the balance and overshoot. Assume a backlog of 10k First Home Buyers who are currently renting, it'll take 4 - 6 months for that to clear based on RBNZ C31 data for FHBers. Meanwhile the market is still reacting to the demand by building.

2020: 42,500 investor loans were issued at an average of $400k. 30,200 FHB at an average of $470k. Jan-Apr 2021 investors accounted for 15k loans.

by redcows1 | 14th Jun 21, 2:20pm 1623637208

So next to no immigration, next to no tourists cruise ships etc. And yet the economy didn't even double dip.
Some ones telling porkies on what actually constitutes a healthy economy I recon.

by Chris-M | 14th Jun 21, 11:11pm 1623669119

You are right. Clearly tourisim adds very little net benefit to our economy. I would not be surprised that while a lot of people pass through our tourist traps, a lot of the money flows back out over seas.

by Pietro | 15th Jun 21, 8:11am 1623701473

Too right. Cruise ships use prepaid vouchers, on board bookings, and meal and drinks packages. All most tourists do is walk around and possibly buy a coffee, then go back to the ship to eat and drink all they can. Migrants bring in kids who get a free education and often parents who get super after 10 years.

by rastus1 | 14th Jun 21, 4:23pm 1623644628

Still more than 6327 too high.
less people = more natural resources per head, more space, house with a section, leafy suburbs.
Mum waiting at home with the apron on instead of slogging of to work and dumping the kids in care.
Domestic bliss.
Yes we had all that but traded it for a Delhi like lifestyle.

by Believer1980 | 15th Jun 21, 10:03am 1623708205

:) with your line of arguing, the ideal population of NZ is you and your family

by Pietro | 15th Jun 21, 8:07am 1623701224

So much for Labour’s pre election promises. That upward curve is terrifying.

by NZ Citizen | 15th Jun 21, 3:48pm 1623728927

A nation commits suicide by unfettered migration.