The flow of foreign migrants into New Zealand has turned positive for the first time since Covid-19 pandemic restrictions were introduced in early 2020.
The latest migration estimates from Statistics NZ show a net gain of 1090 non-NZ citizens in the June quarter.
That was due to a strong increase in the estimated number of non-NZ citizens arriving long term, which jumped to 10,625 in the June quarter, up 47% compared to the June quarter of last year.
That was easily the highest number of long term foreign migrants arriving since Covid pandemic restrictions were first introduced.
Also in the June quarter of this year 9535 foreign migrants were estimated to have left the country long term, giving a net gain of 1090 for the quarter.
Although the June quarter figures may mark a turning point as foreign migrants start to return to these shores again, the numbers are still tiny compared to pre-pandemic levels.
In the second quarter of 2019 there was a net gain gain of 10,729 non-NZ citizens from migration, and that jumped to 20,000 over the following two quarters.
However although the number of non-NZ citizens migrating to this country appears to be rising, there was still an overall population decline from migration in the June quarter because there was an estimated net loss of 2755 NZ citizens, with 8345 leaving long term and 5599 arriving long term.
That took the total change in population from migration in the June quarter to an estimated net loss of 1665.
However, Statistics NZ's migration figures that are less than 16 months old need to be treated with caution because of the way the information is gathered.
The monthly, quarterly and annual figures are subject to revision for up to 16 months from the time they are first released and for the first three months or so these revisions can be substantial.
For example, in July Statistics NZ estimated there was a net loss of 1692 NZ citizens from long term migration in the March quarter of this year. But when those figures were revised in August, the net loss was increased to 2389, up 41% from the previous month's estimate.
The revisions start to decrease substantially after about four months, are insignificant after about 12 months and are considered accurate and no longer revised after 16 months. An explanation as to how Statistics NZ compiles its migration data is available here.
While the latest figures could face some significant revisions over the next few months, what they suggest so far is that the number of New Zealanders going overseas to live is heading back towards its pre-pandemic norm as travel once again becomes a viable option, while the number of non-NZ citizens moving to NZ is starting to pick up again following the reopening of the borders and the recent resetting of immigration rules.
However it will likely be several more months before the figures start to become reliable enough to pick definitive trends.
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36 Comments
Looks like bad news for those heavily into housing then.
"That took the total change in population from migration in the June quarter to an estimated net loss of 1665."
More houses being built to house fewer people. Could all change later in the year of course, place your bets now.
The numbers I see with Customs border movements is a net loss of 18k people so far this month (Departures - Arrivals).
From Jan 2020 to August 2022, there's a net loss of 156,519 people across the borders. But if you take out Jan 2020 (42k gain) and Feb 2020 (34k gain) then we've lost 232k people across our borders since the first Lockdown in 2020.
https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrival…
Arrivals Departures
10593 10243
9608 9037
8916 8165
9113 9969
11158 10838
10767 10203
10600 9569
8863 8943
8496 8680
8496 8680 <-- Though suspiciously the same as the day before
10203 10222
9851 10762
10770 10852
11472 10546
10074 9861
9201 9378
Total: 158181 155948 , or a net 2233 positive arrivals.
NZ currently ~3.5 practicing physicians and 11 practicing nurses per 1000 people. The least the government could do is apply quotas on medical visas as a % of total numbers to maintain this ratio so we're not terribly worse off overall.
The border closures bought INZ enough time to take back some of the control from employers over who comes to NZ. However, all they have achieved in the 2 yrs+ is adding a few more tick boxes on the application forms.
Wait there is more...
Green wants more vulnerable migrants in NZ so they can represent a bigger audience in their battle for social justice.
Yellow argued in the run-up to the 2017 election that all immigration policies should be dropped to the extent that there is level-playing field between locals and foreign workers in securing a job here in NZ. Even the US Republican partypeople aren't this unhinged!
The Greens policy is utterly insane. Say what you will about the pros and cons if immigration, economists tend to agree that broadly speaking for the purposes of a comment thread:
a) high skilled long term migrants are generally good (in so much as they then work here and contribute to the economy)
b) wealthy migrants are generally good (in so much as they then invest here, setting aside for the moment of overinvestment in interest.co.nz's favourite asset class)
To purposefully target people who fit neither of those categories like the Greens do is trying the best you possibly can to lose from your immigration policy...
According to Customs border movements there is a net loss of 18k people so far this month (Departures - Arrivals). There might be a net gain of 1090 non-citizens in the quarter but that's small fry. 200k people arrived into the country in June alone.
Jan 2020 to August 2022, there's a net loss of 156k people across the borders. But if you take out Jan 2020 (42k gain) and Feb 2020 (34k gain) then we've lost 232k people across our borders since the first Lockdown in 2020.
https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrival…
Down here in Christchurch, I continue to receive (for well more than a year now) emails from hiring organisations in desperate need to fill positions such as truck driver, fork lifter operators, packing crew, machine operators and the like. I note that they pay rate is only a couple of bucks higher than minimum wage though and despite their inability to find people, there is no change in the advertise rate, or any other forms of remuneration (e.g. performance based payments and the like). This shows two things:
1) Employers rather miss on revenue than increase their cost base (I have no idea why this is, it may be something than NZ business owners know more about). Maybe because the revenue future prospects are not that bright?
2) minimum wage is high relative the
Greg,
On the topic of data reliability due to the lack of departure cards forcing stats to use ML models to estimate these things then revise and update over time, do we know how reliable the data is? Have they published or discussed confidence intervals?
e.g Flow reported at end of month, 16 months later 99% of the time been revised by +/- X%
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