Big jump in foreign migrants coming to New Zealand in the second quarter but more New Zealanders leaving as well

The flow of foreign migrants into New Zealand has turned positive for the first time since Covid-19 pandemic restrictions were introduced in early 2020.

The latest migration estimates from Statistics NZ show a net gain of 1090 non-NZ citizens in the June quarter.

That was due to a strong increase in the estimated number of non-NZ citizens arriving long term, which jumped to 10,625 in the June quarter, up 47% compared to the June quarter of last year.

That was easily the highest number of long term foreign migrants arriving since Covid pandemic restrictions were first introduced.

Also in the June quarter of this year 9535 foreign migrants were estimated to have left the country long term, giving a net gain of 1090 for the quarter.

Although the June quarter figures may mark a turning point as foreign migrants start to return to these shores again, the numbers are still tiny compared to pre-pandemic levels.

In the second quarter of 2019 there was a net gain gain of 10,729 non-NZ citizens from migration, and that jumped to 20,000 over the following two quarters.

However although the number of non-NZ citizens migrating to this country appears to be rising, there was still an overall population decline from migration in the June quarter because there was an estimated net loss of 2755 NZ citizens, with 8345 leaving long term and 5599 arriving long term.

That took the total change in population from migration in the June quarter to an estimated net loss of 1665.

However, Statistics NZ's migration figures that are less than 16 months old need to be treated with caution because of the way the information is gathered.

The monthly, quarterly and annual figures are subject to revision for up to 16 months from the time they are first released and for the first three months or so these revisions can be substantial.

For example, in July Statistics NZ estimated there was a net loss of 1692 NZ citizens from long term migration in the March quarter of this year. But when those figures were revised in August, the net loss was increased to 2389, up 41% from the previous month's estimate.

The revisions start to decrease substantially after about four months, are insignificant after about 12 months and are considered accurate and no longer revised after 16 months. An explanation as to how Statistics NZ compiles its migration data is available here.

While the latest figures could face some significant revisions over the next few months, what they suggest so far is that the number of New Zealanders going overseas to live is heading back towards its pre-pandemic norm as travel once again becomes a viable option, while the number of non-NZ citizens moving to NZ is starting to pick up again following the reopening of the borders and the recent resetting of immigration rules. 

However it will likely be several more months before the figures start to become reliable enough to pick definitive trends.

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