Housing market confidence at lowest level in 13 years, ASB survey says

Property / news

ASB says the public's confidence in the housing market has finally cracked

25th Aug 22, 10:31am by Greg Ninness

Image: Mark Gstohl https://www.flickr.com/photos/howieluvzus/77301631

The public's confidence in the housing market has finally cracked, according to ASB's latest Housing Confidence Survey.

"The percentage of kiwis expecting house prices to keep rising over the next 12 months has plummeted from a net 11% expecting them to increase last quarter, to a net 31% expecting them to decrease in the three months to July," ASB says.

A net 31% means 31% more people expect prices to fall than expect them to rise.

That's the lowest level of confidence in the housing market for 13 years, ASB said in its report on the survey's results.

"We've previously marvelled at just how resilient the public's house price expectations have been over the past few years," the report said.

"Despite all manner of housing health warnings and policy changes, kiwis remained steadfast in their belief that house prices would keep rising. Until now.

"It seems to be a case of seeing is believing. With the housing downturn now plain to see and house prices around 8% off their peaks, confidence is finally crumbling," ASB says.

"We suspect it will remain in the doldrums for some time if our housing view proves anywhere near correct. We continue to expect a 12% peak-to-trough decline in house prices, with the downturn extending to around mid-2023," the report said.

Not surprisingly, rising mortgage interest rates appear to be driving much of the decline in housing sentiment, with a net 81% of the survey's respondents expecting interest rates to keep rising over the next 12 months.

The comment stream on this story has now closed.

You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

102 Comments

by HouseMouse | 25th Aug 22, 10:36am 1661380569

12%??????

hahaha

by IT GUY | 25th Aug 22, 10:48am 1661381287

Wake me at 30% - sorry for stealing your quote DollarsAndSense....

by Advisor | 25th Aug 22, 11:29am 1661383788

Waiting for some commenter to come along and argue that NZ's economic fundamentals are good (low unemployment, wage increases on par with inflation, migrants coming in, few bank foreclosures).

What I remind them time and again is the US economy was in similar good shape back in 2007 despite an overcooked housing market but the trigger that sent it all crumbling down came from elsewhere in their economy. A few investment banks took this trigger as a cue to offload their toxic CDOs into the market for the entire meltdown to spread within days.

This time the trigger could be Russia, China, Italy, Germany, the UK or a bunch of nations in South Asia and the Middle East going bankrupt.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 25th Aug 22, 11:40am 1661384454

Haha - we switched our entire economy to grow by printing money and giving money to people for free or lending it at almost 0%.

Then we seemed to forget that was really our reality and convinced ourselves we could do that forever. Free money, buy tons of stuff which goes up in value all the time coz everyone else with even more free money wanted to buy or rent all the stuff we owned - faster than we could build more stuff

Utopia - surely?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 25th Aug 22, 12:06pm 1661386017

The 100 % Pure utopia , the team of 5 million ... many of whom forgot what a house is actually for : a shelter for friends & families ....

.... instead , they traded them back & forth , so that some got fabulously rich without any productive effort , tax free wealth ...

Will the younger generation put up with us forever pricing them out of homeownership ... or will they just hop on a plane & clear off ?

by Advisor | 25th Aug 22, 12:30pm 1661387421

A large part of the non-housing economy has been about replacing emigrants with immigrants and lowering wage costs in the process. Many of those immigrants who have the skills and talent end up becoming emigrants a few years after, so the cycle continues.

by kazadi | 25th Aug 22, 5:35pm 1661405755

young people are shorting the housing market. just like Gamestop.

by Erant | 25th Aug 22, 12:49pm 1661388571

Utopia for some, distopia for most.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 25th Aug 22, 12:56pm 1661388967

... dishtopia for many , struggling on $ 21.20 per hour , cleaning motel rooms , cafe dishes ... service station staff ... wondering how they're ever gonna raise the deposit for a bog standard average $ 840 000 house in Godzone ....

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 1:38pm 1661391532

But GBH - we need to remember that having some of the worlds most expense houses is 'a good problem to have' or a 'first class problem'.

This is basically political drivel meaning 'we are going to make the future very bad, by making things far to good right now, for our own short term political gain'.

by RickStrauss | 26th Aug 22, 4:51pm 1661489488

Feeling wealthy by saddling following generations with massive debts is indeed a good problem to have. So long as you're not the generations following, who are also expected to hand over their wages to pay the older folks' pensions.

by J.C. | 25th Aug 22, 11:53am 1661385231

Waiting for some commenter to come along and argue that NZ's economic fundamentals are good (low unemployment, wage increases on par with inflation, migrants coming in, few bank foreclosures).

Don't know if it's just me but the ol' Kiwi exceptionalism has been waning of late. Sentiments surrounding "just how good we are" need to be lifted.

by tothepoint | 25th Aug 22, 11:46am 1661384796

We continue to expect a 12% peak-to-trough decline in house prices, with the downturn extending to around mid-2023

If so, then we're looking at a short, shallow correction - after the sustained market upswing.

TTP

by J.C. | 25th Aug 22, 11:55am 1661385321

Can count on you TTP for a bit of the ol' exceptionalism related to justifying the epic housing bubble.

by Mrs The Point | 25th Aug 22, 12:03pm 1661385780

We've previously marvelled at just how resilient the public's house price expectations have been over the past few years

This reminds me of someone who comments on here.

by Mr Ed | 25th Aug 22, 1:16pm 1661390170

Fantasy.

by Juzz | 25th Aug 22, 1:35pm 1661391338

A house I have my eye on is already down to asking price of 35% below peak. I'd be offering max another 70k below that too

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 11:41am 1661384511

They're in the game of market commentary not forecasting. i.e. they tell you what is happening and not what could happen...that way you can never be wrong...

It would be interesting to see their probability analysis and weightings...and what they deem to be within the reals of possibility. To me, that is where things get interesting...especially if you have read any of Nassim Talebs work.

by mfd | 25th Aug 22, 12:16pm 1661386572

Very strange forecast given we're already at 12% peak to trough. likely to be proven wrong in a matter of weeks...

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz 

by HouseMouse | 25th Aug 22, 12:20pm 1661386805

Exactly!

clowns

by Feijoa | 25th Aug 22, 10:42am 1661380928

Not surprisingly, rising mortgage interest rates appear to be driving much of the decline in housing sentiment

In other words, our appetite for property hasn’t actually decreased - it is just going unfulfilled.

by IT GUY | 25th Aug 22, 10:47am 1661381224

After all its a one way bet....

Pavlov showed that dogs could be conditioned to salivate at the sound of a bell if that sound was repeatedly presented at the same time that they were given food. First the dogs were presented with the food, they salivated. The food was the unconditioned stimulus and salivation was an unconditioned (innate) response.

by Dale Smith | 25th Aug 22, 2:18pm 1661393911

Some people will be innately shitting themselves about now.

by IT GUY | 25th Aug 22, 3:41pm 1661398876

mmmm maybe I should not have gone all in last November

by Carlos67 | 25th Aug 22, 10:50am 1661381425

people know rising interest rates is all but guaranteed now so that's totally killing demand and price expectations. Takes quite a lot to get the sheeple all running in the same direction but the dogs from the RBNZ have finally got this.

by IT GUY | 25th Aug 22, 3:42pm 1661398924

pink floyd - Dogs of war !!!!

by xingmowang | 25th Aug 22, 10:48am 1661381319

NZ is still not aware of the gravity of the situation.

Heard Huawei's CEO's warning yesterday?

by Carlos67 | 25th Aug 22, 10:51am 1661381470

No, do tell.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 25th Aug 22, 11:22am 1661383323

Ren Zhengfei said that the world has a tough decade ahead , financially ... and that the next 2 years will be make or break for many companies ... Huawei will go into " survival mode " as depressed demand slashes profit margins ...

by Brock Landers | 25th Aug 22, 2:51pm 1661395909

Over my lifetime, experience has taught me time and again that whenever hard times threaten to come, Adrian Orr and the rest of his merry central banker crooks, are ready to water down the value of your salary and savings for the supposed "greater good".

I don't expect this to change. Central bank money is not worth the paper its printed on. It becomes more worthless every year without fail. Decade after decade after decade.

by Markus | 25th Aug 22, 2:38pm 1661395109

Yes, Brock Landers, you nailed it here. You are describing the very nature of fiat money. Another aspect of fiat money, especially when combined with madly oversteering central bankers, is that it leads to massive boom/bust cycles. These are divisive, and they ultimately lead to more government control and poverty. We are now at the end of the cycle of the current financial system.

There are two ways forward:

a) deflationary collapse (happening right now); or, if the central bankers return to money printing:

b) the end-game would be high inflation.

by Brock Landers | 25th Aug 22, 2:43pm 1661395409

There is no deflationary collapse happening right now. Inflation is through the roof.

by IT GUY | 25th Aug 22, 3:52pm 1661399537

We are way past the point where the money lent can all be paid back, we are near the point where current profits will not meet the interest on the money owed.... a recession will push this all over the edge, driven by China and US borrowing, helped along by the PIGS in Europe and Russia pulling the rug from under Germany.... The outcome is not only deflationary by also will bring deglobalisation and supply chain chaos.... it could be very bad. I suggest vege garden, solar panels, lots of strong relationships with friends and neighbours..... While NZ is reasonably well placed, (I do not lack lack of refining ability) places like Italy etc are not, interestingly places like Greece are well positioned as they have reverted to more local supply chains ...... The problems we are about to face cannot be solved by a working group, a select committee or iwi hui, Labour is screwed here, we will have a combination of National and the Military/Police running NZ within 2 years

by Kunsgnos | 26th Aug 22, 6:35am 1661452559

You’re in for a real treat over the next few years. I held property in a small town in 2007 and by 2009 it had halved in value. It took 9 years to come back up to the mortgage value. Luckily I was still young when the lesson was learnt.

This next downturn is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 3:30pm 1661398231

And the funny thing Markus is that your point A is causing point B.

So the solution to the problem is the problem.

by Crazy Horse | 25th Aug 22, 11:01am 1661382077

You got it in one xingmowang....... most New Zealanders think what ever happens outside the country, will not affect them at all and they will go "blissfully on" .....I truly think our standard of living and what we had in the last decade, will never come back ...it might improve, but never get to that level.

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 11:38am 1661384283

For many people Crazy Horse the standard of living in New Zealand has been quite bad....its mostly (and I say mostly) asset owners who have found New Zealand a place of prosperity post GFC because of policies that decided to pick sides - that was the prosperity of asset owners over non-asset owners.

People will argue that falling asset prices will make life worse for everyone, including non-asset owners. Sure, but if your life goes from being from great to bad, it seems like a tough and terrible change.....if it goes from being bad to being bad, whats the difference?

It will be those who want to continue to oppress non-asset owners who start complaining about how terrible things will become if the central banks and governments don't intervene again in the markets, and ensure that their wealth doesn't get harmed....because if you don't....look how bad it will become for the people who have already been doing it tough!

Interestingly, if the asset owning class decide to oppress the non-asset owning class, and it obvioulsy becomes a rigged system (which from the intervention I've witnessed the last 10+ years), eventually the average person who doesn't own assets realises there is no point playing by the rules that the government/ruling class attempts to enforce. Why would you? I think this is part of why we are seeing the rise in the likes of ram-raids, violent crime etc around our cities. Why be a compliant citizen when you have nothing, because you realise the system isn't designed to support you, it is designed to oppress you. Dalio talks about this in his latest book 'Changing World Order'. And I think we've been seeing clear signs of what he talks about.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 25th Aug 22, 11:31am 1661383881

... I can understand the rising prices of productive assets , businesses like Xero or F&P Healthcare ..

But we as a nation have been house addicts ... hooked on a 2 decade house price increase rush ... drugged on cheap debt & massive leverage ... on an essentially unproductive asset , an asset needed for survival ...

... the foolishness of this is now playing out in our crime rate , in our homeless rate , child poverty ....

by Mr Ed | 25th Aug 22, 1:21pm 1661390475

Too wise for most on here

by Toye | 25th Aug 22, 10:50am 1661381446

The general public is starting to catch on. Uh oh spaghettios.

by Crazy Horse | 25th Aug 22, 11:05am 1661382318

Don't worry folks, don't you read any of the above negative property news, just give Uncle Ashley a call and he will tell you how much better it will be next year and the following years to come....... while I am sure "Taking the Proverbial" will be along shortly to back him up, with his succinct, "straight to the point" steadfast, "factual" observations....true bliss baaaaaaah .......

by DavidJ | 25th Aug 22, 10:54am 1661381655

get the popcorn ... it's going to get ugly. As people slowly come to the realisation - those giddy high levels are never coming back. I'm observing a high number of investors trying to offload... then falling back to renting. The fat lady is just warming up the vocals..

by Chaosinflesh | 25th Aug 22, 11:05am 1661382312

We have been looking to move all year, been a dearth of suitable rentals/landlords. Found a good 5-bedroom at a reasonable price a few weeks ago, moving this weekend - but our current landlord has yet to land his next fish.

Out of curiosity, I had another look at the local rental market, and was quite literally shocked at the amount of 4, 5 and 6 bedroom houses that have come onto the rental market in the last 2-3 weeks. Gone from ~15% of the market to 40%!

Some of the long-term un-rented are dropping their prices too - e.g. on rental that turned us down for having pets (owner forgot to tell the agent no pets) is now listed $150 cheaper, and is now one of many such properties available.

by Waikatohome | 25th Aug 22, 11:20am 1661383230

Interesting. National and Act told us that the governments housing policies would drive up rents.

by Advisor | 25th Aug 22, 11:54am 1661385283

National and ACT want New Zealanders to believe that landlords are likely to leave their properties vacant as a result of tax regime changes and tougher tenancy rules. Never mind the fact that many of them would have mortgages on these investment homes, and need the rental income to cover interests and repayments.

I guess becoming the leader of the National party comes with the responsibility to fight for the pecuniary interests of sweatshop owners and slumlords.

by Markus | 25th Aug 22, 2:35pm 1661394900

Oh please, you call yourself "advisor", and look at what lows you are going to. Look, also, what the "Labour" government has subjected us to: draconian measures and quasi vaccine mandates, to name a few. And look at illness rates and death rates now.

by tothepoint | 25th Aug 22, 11:41am 1661384489

Hi DavidJ

Stuffing your face with popcorn won't help you get into a home of your own......

Instead, you'll end up looking like the "fat lady" who you mention in your post.

TTP

by kiwimm | 25th Aug 22, 11:56am 1661385364

Popcorn is cheaper than avocado toast

by Fitzgerald | 25th Aug 22, 1:00pm 1661389236

For 40k a month (the average house price fall right now) David J could buy a mountain of popcorn. He could swim in it, he could donate some to the poor, he could stuff his face with it all day and probably wouldn't even care about gaining weight.

Because he will be gaining 40k a month.

You keep trolling renters, Timmy Boy. Renters are busy eating popcorn and laughing. And saving 40k a month. 😁

After YEARS of trolling by vested interests like you Timmy Boy... and after YEARS of trolling by politicians, and YEARS of *bankers talking about wavocado on woast and newspapers celebrating house price rises and corrupt central *bankers throwing renters under the bus it feels SO GOOD to finally see slumlords and REAS like you losing. Troll away, Timmy Trip To The Poorhouse.

by HW2 | 25th Aug 22, 4:47pm 1661402872

You're nuts. Fitz is right

by Carlos67 | 25th Aug 22, 5:27pm 1661405253

Mmmmm so let me get this right, house prices are back to where they were just a year ago, interest rates have doubled in that time but you are saving money by still not buying a house ? The fact is you are never saving anything if you never buy a house. Fascinating logic there from a group of people that are likely to equal "lifetime renters" who are never going to buy a house regardless.

by Thats All Folks | 25th Aug 22, 6:42pm 1661409761

You're acting like today's situation (moderate declines) is tomorrow's future, deliberately I take it as there's obviously more severe capitulation to come.

Or is it another case of TGA is special?

If you're sitting debt free, on cash, best to avoid the blast radius and get out of the way.

Those "lifetime renters" you speak of will be your landlord one day, be nice.

by DavidJ | 25th Aug 22, 1:40pm 1661391659

ha true - but it will save me several 100s of thousands dollars .. i'm happy to put on a few kilos waiting

by ikimpaul | 25th Aug 22, 10:55am 1661381750

Hutt Valley Market (plus a Perth Housing Market Update) Update 22^nd Aug

I made a trip to see some friends in Aussie recently– specifically Perth. A place which has the potential to attract a lot of Kiwis with high wages (Perth now has the second highest wages in Australia) and extremely low housing costs.

Perth has just 10 suburbs with a median price over $1 Million – all the suburbs are within 10km radius of the city – excluding one. The average house price is $600 000.

Perth has a high level of housing development – they are continuously extending the breadth of the city with constant development of new suburbs supported by new roads and rail, making the city easy to commute around.

The new suburbs are roughly 30kms from the city (which supported by an excellent freeway and rail system are roughly 30 minutes commute to the city) – these suburbs are coastal suburbs – with most houses within 1 km of the beach. The average new built house and land is just $380 000 AUD. That’s a 180sqm 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, double garage on a 450-500 sqm block.

Yes that’s right- for ½ the price of the average NZ house and a 1/3 price of a Wellington/ Auckland house you can be within 30 minutes commute of the city in a brand new large house by the beach. If you a FHB – why wouldn’t you leave NZ for this.

The West Australian government is onto this- with a current marketing campaign on NZ radio encouraging kiwis to leave NZ for WA – they are especially interested in Nurses, doctors, Teachers and health care workers.

Now back to the situation in the Hutt valley

Current Market Listings

545 houses on the market- Down 11 on a couple of weeks ago .

Average number of houses sold each week 25. This is well down on last year where 40 houses were selling a week and at the peak in March 2021 50 houses a week were selling.

545 houses on the market with 25 a week selling means there is 21.5 weeks stock on the market.

House Price Reductions

295 houses have a listed price

63% of the houses listed with a price have reduced their price since listing

The average markdown has surged this week from 105K to it is now $107K (back in March the average reduction was 75K)

Of those that have listed prices (pool 295) -65 have reduced their prices by 100K

15 have reduced their prices by over 200K, 9 have reduced their prices by 300K and 2 now has reduced their price by 400K with the biggest reduction been 455K.

The data continues to show the majority of houses listed are under 900K. The Median house price for all 556 listings is steady at 799K.

Market Valuations

The latest QV valuations (valuations by QV which are updated every month and give an approximation of a houses value) have now dropped $200K since Jan for the Hutt.

Keep in mind new RV ratings for the Hutt Valley are due to be calculated in Sept and released in Nov. A number of people who bought in the last 12 months are going to find their house is worth a lot less than what they paid for it.

As for homes – some massive drops in the last round of updates released last week.

Woburn (the hutts most expensive suburb) – average house price dropped 120K in value in July and is down 280K from $1.66M (in Feb 22) to $1.38M, this is a 3.8% drop YOY
Petone – dropped 65K in value in June and is down $180K from $1.19M to $995K and as predicted a month ago has dropped below $1M this month. This is a 10% drop YOY.
Wainuiomata (the huts cheapest suburb and attractive to investors and FHB’s) – dropped 50K in value in July and is down $140K from $870K in Feb to $715K. this is a 10% drop YOY

Houses sold vs houses removed

My records show 268 houses listed with a Price have sold YTD

I have records of a further 238 houses that have been removed from the market unsold YTD.

28 of those houses removed from the market have been listed on the rental market.

Length of time on the Market

405 houses have been on the market for over 30 days - 74% (last week it was 424)

311 houses have been on the market for over 60 days - 57% (last week it was 327)

215 houses have been on the market for over 90 days – 38% (last week was 210)

148 houses have been on the market for over 120 days - 26% (last week was 146)

71 of the houses have been on the market for over 150 days - 13%

56 of the houses have been on the market for over 180 days (6 months) – 10%

The number of houses on the market over 60 days is now over 58%. This has risen from 32% of houses in mid March (one in three), 1 in 3 houses have now been on the market more than 3 months , 1 in 4 have been on the market over 4 months and 1 in 10 have been on the market over 6 months.

Rental Market

This week the rental market has 182 properties for rent, this is the lowest number since mid April but up 76 on this time last year, – when just 106 houses were for rent.

The lower number of rentals is not translating into higher rental prices as the percentage of properties listed at $650 is 40% and whilst up on last week when 36% of properties were listed at over $650, well below the 53% of houses listed over $650 on the 23^rd March.

Median Rental price for the Hutt valley is $600 a week

Average rental price reduction is $54 a week. The number of new build 10-15 listings has slowed in recent weeks but there are still some great rental prices in this space with a couple going for $600 a week for a 3 and 1 new build.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 25th Aug 22, 11:05am 1661382349

Yeah, but it's Perth

by Carlos67 | 25th Aug 22, 11:15am 1661382925

The same could be said for places in New Zealand, problem is that its cheap for a reason.

by ikimpaul | 25th Aug 22, 11:45am 1661384700

I think you will find the price is low due to the continuous building of houses - land prices are ultra cheap at an average of 180K. The state government continues to open up new land for development and supports it with infrastructure.

We do the opposite her in NZ- there has been a real reluctance to open up new suburbs - and a driver has been the cost of adding the infrastructure - as a result we have had fewer builds and an undersupply of housing.

NZ's recent solution is to create infill housing to avoid building the new roads and transport systems - but instead we are overloading existing roads and water pipes/ electricity networks - which have been setup for a lower number of houses

by Crazy Horse | 25th Aug 22, 11:23am 1661383412

Yep ......lasted 1 year in Perth back in 99/2000 .....everyone locked up in summer with the aircon on, either in the mall or at home .....and how many on Cottesloe Beach just after Christmas Day at 10am .......just 1 and they were in a tent to protect them from the 41 degree blazing sun.....endless similar looking houses stretching towards the haze of the distant hills .......Fremantle was the place that was worth any mention .....ahhhhh an ice cold redback on the balcony of the Sail & Anchor :)

by Befuddled | 25th Aug 22, 11:58am 1661385523

Nah they were probably having an absolute blast Quokka stomping on Rotto, gargling wine down the coast at Margies or surfing / windsurfing up a storm in Lancellin or up at Gero. Just like NZ, that place can be a paradise for a certain lifestyle. If you're not an outdoor person, sure it'd suck.

by dumbthoughts | 25th Aug 22, 7:21pm 1661412085

Been a bit for work in the past (pre Covid). Perth itself I hated - seedy feeling downtown, disgustingly hot in the summer etc.

Fremantle was nice though as you say.

I much prefer Sydney and Melbourne.

by Smudge02 | 25th Aug 22, 12:05pm 1661385916

Yeah, but it's Perth

Take a trip north and spend a few weeks in South Hedland, Perth will suddenly become very appealing! Mind you the way Auckland is going, South Hedland is looking quite good!

by HouseMouse | 25th Aug 22, 12:26pm 1661387215

?

is it more Hicksville than any NZ city other than Auckland? Nope

much closer to the glories of Europe

by Brock Landers | 25th Aug 22, 2:07pm 1661393261

It's a nice place. But it is isolated.

by Mr Ed | 26th Aug 22, 7:40am 1661456434

Nailed it 😂

by Rob Reid | 25th Aug 22, 11:27am 1661383624

Whoa. And this is before the unemployment.

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 11:36am 1661384183

Yes exactly....if the narrative becomes common place that house prices are falling and will continue to fall in the future, it becomes a reinforcing/feedback loop. This is what I saw in the US during the GFC.

Many people assume that the moment that the RBNZ drop interest rates (if they do), and mortgage rates go down, then house prices will rebound and head back up straight away.

But this isn't always the case. They were dropping interest rates in the US during/after the GFC and house prices continue to tumble. You have to understand the psychological factors going on with these types of speculative markets. People go into capital preservation mode (which perhaps I don't know if we've seen in New Zealand - not at least the last 3 decades...its been pretty much plain sailing...and that is dangerous because of the recency/confirmation it causes). Their fear of losing capital is greater than the weekly mortgage payments going down a few percent when interest rates drop.

by Chaosinflesh | 25th Aug 22, 11:49am 1661384994

I was in Perth in 2017, not long after the massive oil project up north closed ($40B project that kept the economy pumped with cash for ~15 years).

I was surrounded by unemployed people with all sorts of tickets, desperately competing for the few remaining jobs. (I was in a different field, thankfully). We're talking guys used to 2-300k on the pipelines working for Coke as forklift drivers kind of stuff.

Over 7,000 empty apartments, yet owners still trying to pack people in at $150/person, 4/room kind of thing.

It was very very nice, and I'd love to live there. Some great infrastructure work done with lots of taxes.

But the big project ended, jobs disappeared and house prices plummeted. They were all sitting around hoping Lithium batteries would be their saviour, so they could keep selling dirt when I left!

by Averageman | 25th Aug 22, 11:32am 1661383922

Anyone tried talking to banks recently. The hoop jumping is intense. Clearly they think something bad is coming and have battened down the hatches, and closed everything/slashed overhead where they could.

by Befuddled | 25th Aug 22, 11:59am 1661385584

They're actively encouraging me to borrow...

by Caughtinthemiddle | 25th Aug 22, 11:42am 1661384532

The rubbers hitting the road. It will be interesting to see if there is an up tick in listings over Spring and if this brings out the buyers or just adds to the growing unsold stock.

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 11:56am 1661385402

Big changes taking place in the US housing market as well. Here are a few interesting tweets/charts showing recession, rising unemployment, and falling prices are all happening now/the next 12 months (including that 78% of American's are expecting a housing market crash).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa65jpxXkAAk1lr?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa3IWf5XwAEQp1m?format=png&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa8CgUeXwAA6iKV?format=png&name=900x900

https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1561093886105337858?s=20&t=EE…

by Carlos67 | 25th Aug 22, 12:07pm 1661386049

I watch J Bravo on YouTube for the daily updates on the USA. Yeah some of you may laugh but its light and an easy watch but I flag the bits that get into charts. Its a very quick insight into what is happening over there and he occasionally interviews a few others that know what is going on. Its quite leading edge stuff and probably talking about things up to 6 months before it happens.

by Thats All Folks | 25th Aug 22, 12:53pm 1661388824

Haha, J Bravo,

I watch him a little, but can be a little cheesy.

Maverick of Wall Street on YT, that guy is unbelievably clever. Great humour too.

by JimboJones | 25th Aug 22, 11:59am 1661385559

Is the main picture a $1 million dollar entry level do up?

by HouseMouse | 25th Aug 22, 12:29pm 1661387356

Analogies?

A broken housing market?

house prices to halve?

by nz-it-worker | 25th Aug 22, 1:23pm 1661390596

Looks like it has already been sub-divided. That’s a place to live and a rental to provide a passive income stream.

by JimboJones | 25th Aug 22, 1:40pm 1661391630

True, seller will be expecting closer to 2 million then

by Stuart Mason | 25th Aug 22, 12:28pm 1661387293

This article from yesterday, suggests the problem of housing supply, at least in the private sector, is coming to an end over the next 12 months:

Kiwibank says NZ housing shortage to 'disappear' over next 12 months

This will test out the reasoning of those experts and politicians who for so long have said NZ housing crisis is all out a lack of supply.

by Independent_Observer | 25th Aug 22, 12:47pm 1661388477

When you stop giving easy credit to everyone, including those own already own a house or two, its amazing how there appears to be more supply and less demand (and vice versa).

by Averageman | 25th Aug 22, 1:29pm 1661390991

Don't forget the phasing out of the tax rinse that the speculative love so dearly. Nationals policy of going back to the John Key model (mass immigration supporting tax avoidance by excessive residential debt/prices) will see them remain on the Govt benches. If they decide to move away from debt based population enslavement for the Aussies Bank, they would fly back into the Govt benches.

But they wont, so they wont.

by rollo19 | 25th Aug 22, 1:11pm 1661389898

Just here for the comments. I left NZ sick of 'property doubles every 10 years, fact' bs at BBQs and priced well out on a dual income. RBNZ has a lot of answer for keeping rates below par for decades. I don't like to see people get burnt but I hope it comes back by half or more into reasonable territory. Rent seeking under low interest rates has ruined the economy and standard of living in NZ. Imagine if people were investing in businesses under a normal interest rate regime instead.

by Brock Landers | 25th Aug 22, 3:12pm 1661397174

Where did you go?

by Averageman | 25th Aug 22, 1:50pm 1661392207

A lot of water to flow under the bridge, but will we see a plunge protection move at some stage as the speculative herd panics and all bolt for the exit at the same time.

by Yvil | 25th Aug 22, 1:46pm 1661391961

With the housing downturn now plain to see and house prices around 8% off their peaks

Greg, please note that many commenters on here know better, the market is apparently down already 20% or more...

by Nifty1 | 25th Aug 22, 2:07pm 1661393264

Down 20% going on 50%... it's all over!

by mfd | 25th Aug 22, 2:14pm 1661393645

We are blessed with a plethora of house price measurements and it's not clear which one they are using. The REINZ median is a convenient and timely one to look at because Interest have kindly graphed it (REINZ HPI would be better but isn't so conveniently available). By this measure, we're at 12%.

Anyone claiming 20% or more is speculating or looking at particular regions or subcategories (e.g. Wellington REINZ median is down 19% already - overachievers).

CoreLogic data is also available but slower to update, so the price fall is less pronounced for now.

by Kohukohunui | 25th Aug 22, 2:31pm 1661394716

HPI in July was down 10.8% from peak (https://www.blog.reinz.co.nz/blog/july-2022-statistics):

The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of residential property nationwide, showed an annual decrease of 2.9% from 3,928 in July 2021 to 3,814 — down 10.8% from its peak in November 2021.

by DTRH | 25th Aug 22, 3:02pm 1661396571

Yvil this is the start of the downturn, rates will continue to climb inflation looks set to stay high, so many people over leveraged and some of those mortgages will need to be re-fixed at higher rates. Yvil look around you this is not going to be just a small correction it’s going to be biggest housing crash in NZ history.

by Yvil | 25th Aug 22, 6:51pm 1661410295

I agree, housing is going to suffer a lot, along everything else. I see a recession coming for 2023.

Still my comment was about some crazy claims made about how much house prices have dropped NOW.

by whakahokia mai | 25th Aug 22, 2:11pm 1661393485

How to rectify the current unaffordability of housing? Since I returned to NZ in ‘85 I have witnessed first hand house prices go from roughly 3 times average income to some multiple I can barely comprehend. I feel we have been shafted by some malevolent force that has turned me into an angry human with regard to where our young ones sit in regard to owning their own home. What Happened? I and most of my friends and acquaintances feel such a sense of frustration and helplessness. Hoping forlornly for a political party to magically re-create affordability for the masses. Faulty thinking methinks.

by HouseMouse | 25th Aug 22, 2:33pm 1661394800

It will NEVER be rectified, at least not intentionality.

by Dale Smith | 25th Aug 22, 2:33pm 1661394838

The malevolent force is the ignorant ideology that both National and especially Labour have followed.

And can only be best reset at the bottom (of a crash), which was going to happen as a natural consequence of allowing an artificial boom.

But the question is, will they make the reset needed?

by HouseMouse | 25th Aug 22, 2:43pm 1661395407

And the answer is ‘Hell No’.

I long ago gave up on either party doing what is needed.

by stefanblaise | 25th Aug 22, 2:34pm 1661394855

My confidence in it has increased. Every step it takes closer to reality is a good one.

by IT GUY | 25th Aug 22, 4:02pm 1661400122

Major NZ unions are fighting for 10-12% pay rises, workers are striking knowing there are no workers to replace them, OCR is going to need to go much higher to crush the expectations with more unemployed and fear of strike = job losses. The inflation has got so far out of hand the only way to crush it is to crash land the economy. We can all sense it but think it wont effect us, it will. It would not surprise me if Germany suffering a deep energy shortage based recession does not stir the Dogs of War again in a Nato lead conflict.... This may well bring the end of Putin, as the oligarchs have EVERYTHING to loose in this scenario. China may well enter the fray in Pacific, but IMHO not via Taiwan. China could pivot its excess manufacturing capacity to make a formidable war machine. Who where how they target this capability ? Will the leadership and military support Xi? he needs a distraction..... after all he let the animal spirits of capitalism run wild in a communist country, now its collapsing around him

by npc | 25th Aug 22, 4:59pm 1661403549

Maybe the plan is to let it run wild - burn off the debt.

Could even settle on some alternative currency once our fiat is completely worthless. Digital dollar perhaps? Some sort of great reset.

by HW2 | 25th Aug 22, 5:20pm 1661404838

Listings for houses to rent and to buy are both DOWN which signals to me that things are moving UP. 20 percent drops. Lowest levels since Feb

by Nifty1 | 25th Aug 22, 8:41pm 1661416869

Alot of ups and downs there...

by HW2 | 25th Aug 22, 10:24pm 1661423055

A little ambiguous sorry.

Lowest stock levels since Feb. Some areas have seen 20 percent drop in stock levels from peak

As mentioned, these figures signal a turnaround

by Joe Smith | 25th Aug 22, 10:42pm 1661424140

If the person who writes the Hutt Valley Report is right, a lot of the drop you mention may be the result of vendors taking unsold stock off the market, with the hope that they'll have better luck in the spring. Certainly the sales rate in the Wellington region has not picked up; if anything, it seems to be slowing. I don't know about elsewhere.

by gingerninja | 27th Aug 22, 5:54am 1661536441

Nah, you’d need to see a 3 month drop in inventory and weeks to sell before you could reasonably comment on a turn around.

Otherwise it’s just confirmation bias and/or wishful thinking.

People need to be careful of the strong pull to denial as a bubble bursts or they end up in the bull trap right before the capitulation. That’s the most painful place to be in the whole cycle.

by Tee | 26th Aug 22, 4:10am 1661443805

"A net 31% means 31% more people expect prices to fall than expect them to rise."

A net 31% is 65.5% expect a decline, compared with 34.5% who think that its still a good buy.

Some say that flippers are gone, yet mortgage stats show investors are around, though less active.

"We continue to expect a 12% peak-to-trough decline in house prices, with the downturn extending to around mid-2023"

A favourite today, a comparison to peak.