Spring surge in the housing market just a trickle so far

Property / news

Slight lift in new listings of homes for sale in September but total stock numbers remain very high suggesting the market could be sluggish for some time

3rd Oct 22, 10:22am by Greg Ninness

The spring housing market kicked off with a whisper rather than a roar, suggesting it may remain subdued for some time yet.

The latest figures from property website Realestate.co.nz show it received 7881 new listings from throughout the country in September. That's up slightly from 7492 in August and 7470 in July. But it's just below the 7893 it received in June, and well below the 8901 it received in September 2019 before the Covid pandemic disrupted the market.

However high total stock levels continue to weigh on the market, and there would need to be a substantial lift in sales volumes over the next few months to make a significant difference in market sentiment.

In total Realestate.co.nz had 25,903 residential properties available for sale at the end of September, almost double the 13,407 properties the website was advertising at the end of September last year. That's also up by 22% compared to the pre-pandemic level of 21,174 in September 2019.

The stock available for sale on the website has been above 25,000 since March this year.

The national average asking price dropped slightly to $913,666 in September compared to $914,185 in August. That means it has fallen by $81,219 since it peaked at $994,885 in January.

However around the regions the movement in the average asking price in September was more mixed, with all regions posting increases in their average asking price in September compared to August, apart from Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, West Coast and Central Otago-Lakes, which posted declines.

The biggest movement in the average asking price in September was in Central Otago-Lakes where it declined by $150,286, falling from $1,459,029 in August to $1,308,743 in September.

"The national average asking price has decreased by around $10,000 per month since January," Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said.

"If this cooling continues at the same pace, the national average could be around $890,000 in December."

The charts below give the full regional figures for new listings and total stock on Realestate.co.nz.

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87 Comments

by taimaiakka0 | 3rd Oct 22, 10:27am 1664746079

"The spring housing market kicked off with a whisper rather than a roar, suggesting it may remain subdued for some time yet."

If it does not roar in next few weeks.......as the only hope for now that Spring will do some wonder and change the scenario.......only if season could control mortage rate......

Fundamentals are down as system has failed so expecting season/spring to wonder is it being wise or foolish !

by tothepoint | 3rd Oct 22, 10:42am 1664746936

As we see each day, top houses in premium locations are still fetching top prices - well above CV and not infrequently setting a record.

Old money never runs out and there's no shortage of it in Auckland.

TTP

by IT GUY | 3rd Oct 22, 10:56am 1664747797

The percentage of old money buying premium properties is tiny compared with "The Market", its THE MARKET which is very sick, not the rich cash buyers....

by tothepoint | 3rd Oct 22, 1:49pm 1664758161

Hi IT,

It’s fallacious to talk about “The Market”.

in fact, there are MANY different markets - based on a plethora of diverse factors.

We know, for instance, that high-end house markets are performing differently from many lower-end markets at the present time.

Notably, there’s a shortage of house listings in localities such as Ponsonby, St Mary’s Bay, Freemans Bay and Herne Bay - where many well-healed families prefer to live. And they’re often prepared to pay top dollar when the right property comes along - no matter how sluggish other markets might be. 💵

TTP [MNZM]

by DTRH | 3rd Oct 22, 11:30am 1664749842

So what you are saying is some people have more money than sense, and these are the people speculators target.

by swapacrate | 3rd Oct 22, 12:29pm 1664753366

Actually its what I'm doing in my business, I'm giving perceived value (real value as well but some perception) and building a brand around it as I don't want to fight on price, Fighting on price creates thin margins for me and eventually I lose money. Still though TTP I love reading his posts now the market is tanking. Its a long way till the bottom and then its a long long plateau. Even the pricier suburbs will start coming down eventually, people who make money still like Bargains and not over paying, that's how they made their money in the first place. Only people who like gold bling and large colliseum pillars in their houses will spend money just to show off, and not care. Is it a soft landing if the descent is vertical, probably need a parachute for that.

by MisterB | 3rd Oct 22, 11:35am 1664750114

If there was ever a compelling case for a downvote button, it's this.

You're being blinkered. The article and comments are based on overall market trends, and to cherry pick a handful of localities is facetious at best and intentionally misleading at worst.

Noting that as per EVEN OneRoof, values have dropped in these locations too

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/suburb/herne-bay-auckland-city-1850

PS. Love the pretentious MNZM drop at the end there, feel free to drop in your full name so this can be fact checked, as can the reason for said merit. Perhaps service to the REA?

by General Comment | 3rd Oct 22, 11:47am 1664750827

He got it in 2004. Not sure why it wasn't revoked when he and his company were fined $1.5M for price fixing in 2017. Maybe no one brought it up.

by kiwimm | 3rd Oct 22, 1:37pm 1664757450

If 99 houses out of 100 went down in price and 1 went up, you can be sure that TTP would be there saying some people are making money.

by WestieAJ | 3rd Oct 22, 11:39am 1664750379

Those same wealthy families probably have multiple rental properties in the less desirable neighborhoods of Auckland that are currently tanking 10k per week. So swings and roundabouts.

by Independent_Observer | 3rd Oct 22, 12:26pm 1664753191

"TTP [MNZM]"

I see TTP is back to signing off with MNZM (again).

Just to confirm you are on the NZ Order of Merit TTP or does this abbreviation hold some other meaning to you?

Tim Mordaunt, (ONZM) is founder and principal of Property Brokers.

Tim Mordaunt - Chairman - Property Brokers

by keenaucklandobserver | 3rd Oct 22, 5:45pm 1664772328

Will just give him free marketing here (it's him) -

True Team Promise = TTP = https://www.propertybrokers.co.nz/team

by Beanie | 3rd Oct 22, 9:25pm 1664785545

Haha well spotted. Click on their Senior Management Team, the accountant looks like he has just been told there is a $1.5m fine to pay.

by HW2 | 3rd Oct 22, 9:35pm 1664786130

Could not see accountant I must be a bit blond.

Ive dealt with at least a couple of the sales managers in the past. One of them was really good

by Nzdan | 4th Oct 22, 7:51am 1664823075

All I see of their senior management team is a bunch of caricatures.

by HW2 | 3rd Oct 22, 9:27pm 1664785654

Well that is good... you are certainly a keen observer i must say. The first to point this out

by taimaiakka0 | 3rd Oct 22, 11:03am 1664748228

Their will always be some exception and one does not have to search for them as that property will be splashed all over media by lobbyist.

To say that housing market is not down.....cannot argue when it is as clear as day and night.

by tothepoint | 3rd Oct 22, 11:16am 1664748990

Hi Taimaiakka0,

You miss my point (above).

TTP

by Gummy Bear Hero | 3rd Oct 22, 11:03am 1664748228

... " old money " remains in those families because they're smart enough to hang onto it ...

And I doubt they'd be jumping to grab a falling knife ... houses are " cooling " downwards by $ 10 000 per month ... old money is patient ... they'll wait ...

by tothepoint | 3rd Oct 22, 11:21am 1664749274

Hi Gummy Bear Hero,

Old money is currently very active in Ponsonby, Freemans Bay, St Marys Bay and Herne Bay…..💰

But there’s a dearth of houses on the market to satisfy the need.

TTP

by MisterB | 3rd Oct 22, 11:36am 1664750190

Feel free to share your source for said excessive demand

by Idoubtit | 3rd Oct 22, 12:43pm 1664754196

Agreed. I have been tracking these four suburbs (plus Grey Lynn) since beginning of the year. Currently circa 180 properties for sale in these 5 suburbs. This was at 240 at end of March but has been decreasing consistently since March. Of those 180 properties currently listed on Trademe, a bunch are not even built yet.

by JJS | 3rd Oct 22, 11:08am 1664748494

Agreed - try finding a good family home on a 500sqm+ section in the city fringe suburbs. Everything in the core $2.5m - $5m range gets snapped up straight away

by GV 27 | 3rd Oct 22, 11:14am 1664748892

This wasn't true last time you posted it and it's still not true now. This is basically just comment spam and it would be good to see the admins treat it as such.

by Justa comment | 3rd Oct 22, 11:49am 1664750999

From what I see there must be at least 10,000 townhouses and houses coming on to the Auckland market over the next 12 months. The townhouse devlopments are everywhere in big numbers. There will be some activity as people move sept oct nov, but the market could well be dead dec jan feb.

by Justa comment | 3rd Oct 22, 11:59am 1664751584

Yes the very wealthy will always pay top dollar for top property, even during recessions. This is probably only 5% of the market by volume, whereas 'The Market' is the other 95%. The very wealthy will always be able to pay top dollar in the places like Herne and Mission Bays or Parnell Remuera St Marys Bay.

by HW2 | 3rd Oct 22, 9:38pm 1664786329

I think every single city and town has a range of top middle and bottom priced. Hence also a range of local buyers

by Justa comment | 3rd Oct 22, 12:27pm 1664753262

Auckland sellers have now mostly accepted a 10% drop from 2021 highs, but have parked there and are resisting the next 5%. And then there are the time wasters with the 12 to 18 month old listings on trademe still wanting 2021 prices. Of course they wont get it in the next 18 months at least.

by DDH | 4th Oct 22, 3:52pm 1664851954

Classic. All everybody needs is a top house in a premium location.

by Caughtinthemiddle | 5th Oct 22, 6:19am 1664903945

TTP - from the Herald today. Facts not fiction please.

The country's highest-end housing suburb Herne Bay, upmarket Ōrākei, Waiheke Island's most popular Oneroa, Onetangi and Palm Beach, northern seaside area Omaha in Rodney, and the eastern area of Shamrock Park near Howick suffered the biggest valuation drops out of 201 suburbs measured, CoreLogic said in September.

Herne Bay values fell 2.8 per cent, Oneroa was down 4.8 per cent, Onetangi down 5.7 per cent, Palm Beach down 5.3 per cent, Ōrākei down 4 per cent, Omaha down 7.4 per cent, and Shamrock Park values fell 5.4 per cent.

by Befuddled | 3rd Oct 22, 10:29am 1664746149

Must be bad data. The real news is the market can still be red-hot, what with all these overseas buyers cashing in on the NZ peso.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/twelve-bidders-fight-for-grey-lynn-house…

by gnx | 3rd Oct 22, 10:37am 1664746654

Tirau is up I read….. be quick.

by Carlos67 | 3rd Oct 22, 10:43am 1664747003

Some seriously over priced renovated wooden shacks in that article. Still its a problem at the top end of the market, those with 3 to 5 Million don't have a whole lot to choose from clearly. Interesting to see FHB in that market, and I thought my parents helped me out a lot.

by SND | 3rd Oct 22, 10:44am 1664747042

"CV of $3.35m"

"from first home buyers helped by parents"

I found my foster parents!

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 11:15am 1664748941

“We also had a swathe of ex-pats back in New Zealand from London. They are struggling to get their heads around our prices,” Wither said.

It is indeed quite strange for an expat to beam directly from Planet Earth into "Aotearoa New Zealand". There are many bewildering customs, behaviours and language that have been recently concocted.

When it comes to property prices these confused expats may not be able to determine whether a new counting system has been invented under "Te Ao Maori" or whether something has simply been added to the water supply that makes people mentally handicapped.

by Wiseguy | 3rd Oct 22, 12:12pm 1664752350

Need to ask, inflation plus rate hikes, what is there to drive up the property market

by Flying high | 3rd Oct 22, 12:18pm 1664752690

Inflation running red hot

As you said before Mr wiseguy

Ps you keep amending your post like you cannot make your mind up

by Wiseguy | 3rd Oct 22, 1:48pm 1664758098

Nice to see people are watching closely, Mr Flying high

by Flying high | 3rd Oct 22, 2:51pm 1664761880

😙

by tothepoint | 3rd Oct 22, 11:24am 1664749449

Never mind, Brock……

Now that you’re shifting to Australia, you won’t need to concern yourself with these matters.

Travel safely,

TTP

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 11:37am 1664750231

That might be the first true thing that TTP has ever said.

✈️✅

by JimboJones | 3rd Oct 22, 1:06pm 1664755617

Lucky he chose Australia as that is pretty much the only 100% English speaking country. If he had chosen anywhere else he may have to learn the hard way that having more than one language and culture is pretty normal.

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 1:48pm 1664758134

Hi Jimbo,

That's a strange comment to make, but not unexpected given the warped ideologies that you subscribe too.

Having lived and travelled abroad extensively I'm a great fan of other cultures and languages.

I'm just not a fan of artificial social engineering, corporate tokenism, pidgin English, the grievance industry or of having two classes of citizen based on racial fractions.

Please try to improve your ignorance.

by tothepoint | 3rd Oct 22, 1:55pm 1664758527

but not unexpected given the warped ideologies that you subscribe too. [Brock Landers]

More hate speech from Brock Landers. 🤮

Yet another reason we can be thankful he's bought a one-way ticket to Australia.

TTP

by JimboJones | 3rd Oct 22, 2:05pm 1664759151

Do you mean the social engineering that conned Maori out of their land, forced Maori to speak English, made land ownership only for the rich. etc? Let me guess, that is all in the past, and now we should all live in the same English speaking European modelled society where we have two classes of citizen based on whether they own land.

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 2:19pm 1664759954

Historical revisionism is part and parcel of the progressive playbook. Why do you have so much venom towards the English language and European society?

I have a much better and safer life than my ancestors did before the 1800s. Your saviour complex is misplaced.

by JimboJones | 3rd Oct 22, 2:51pm 1664761863

No venom really, I even speak English believe it or not, although it is a pretty stupid language in a lot of ways. But I also don't mind people speaking Maori if they like, or a bit of pidgin, the more variety the better.

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 3:12pm 1664763166

I think that we can all agree that you don't mind speaking gibberish.

by JimboJones | 3rd Oct 22, 3:21pm 1664763687

by Baywatch | 3rd Oct 22, 3:21pm 1664763703

"I'm a great fan of other cultures and languages"..but just not at home please where everyone should speak to me in the Queens English

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 3:44pm 1664765083

Imagine using mastery of the English language as a pejorative.

by swapacrate | 3rd Oct 22, 1:15pm 1664756123

Thats nuts those places have no section. I lived in UK in Surrey Weybridge, some way overpriced places with no sections, its the reason I came home, plus the fishing and beaches. But I moved to the country so I can have a massive section so kids can play around. Would never buy those houses in first place, but those sections and price, well whatever floats their boat, but funny how expensive perception can be.

by agnostium | 3rd Oct 22, 1:55pm 1664758546

Interesting, kids don't really need a section they need to be close to other kids and be free to travel on their own from a young age, that's the actual freedom that they need. A section/garden is like an openair prison in some ways. The Dutch invest in safe road infrastructure that priorities cycling and walking. This means dutch kids can cycle to school, sports, birthdays and their friends' houses on their own, true freedom and it builds true confidence. They have the world's happiest kids (and somewhat counterintuitively the world's happiest drivers)

by JimboJones | 3rd Oct 22, 2:09pm 1664759372

Yes it is odd that NZers have this obsession of living in their own fully fenced park with as little social interaction as possible. I would love it if our kids could safely walk or ride to friends houses, playgrounds, school, etc, but apparently that is some kind of war on cars I'm told.

by chebbo | 3rd Oct 22, 10:43am 1664747027

Here's another interpretation of the same data, courtesy of William Hewett at Newshub:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/10/nz-property-housing-market…

According to Hewett, buyers are "licking their lips" in excitement at all the great bargains to be picked up in this cooling - definitely not crashing - market.

Be quick!

by Carlos67 | 3rd Oct 22, 10:49am 1664747384

Some interesting statements made it that piece Chebbo, suggest that DGM's don't read it while drinking their coffee.

by Flying high | 3rd Oct 22, 11:21am 1664749318

Slurrrp... spit

Hahha

by Wiseguy | 3rd Oct 22, 11:11am 1664748719

Be quick to shoot yourself in the foot, like the ones who did at the beginning of the year.

by ex socialist | 3rd Oct 22, 10:49am 1664747384

It is interesting to contrast Auckland to Wellington. There is much commentary that Wellington has taken a larger hit. However, if you look at the 'weeks of stock' - Wellington has come down and Auckland roared up.

I suspect that the Wellington vendors have accepted the new prices and are doing about the same number of deals as last year - while Auckland vendors is still in denial.

by Juzz | 3rd Oct 22, 7:44pm 1664779486

Better to be realistic and sell now if you're going to need to later than to wait for the carnage next year I guess.

by Flying high | 3rd Oct 22, 10:56am 1664747768

A mate told me and some friends that auckland houses would be $1m each. That was in the 90s and we thought he was going mad or drunk so didn't take any notice of his advice. I wonder what he would say now.

by General Comment | 3rd Oct 22, 11:37am 1664750274

Maybe he'd say "Greetings from Monaco! Just taking the Lürssen down the coast to St Tropez this morning, lovely sunshine and perfect cruising conditions!"

...or more likely "I told you so! Right, back to work, the boss is cracking the whip."

by Wiseguy | 3rd Oct 22, 11:07am 1664748445

Long way away to any turn around in property market, Property market is still climbing down, been some big drops and to continue, alongside rate hikes.

Spring is supposed to be booming, don't see that happening this year or the next.

by ex agent | 3rd Oct 22, 11:17am 1664749049

As people struggle with basic daily living costs such as food, interest, petrol and energy. What a suprise. A storm is coming and it’s not a weather one.

by phalanax | 3rd Oct 22, 11:25am 1664749539

"Year-on-year, prices were up or stable in all except two regions,” said Vanessa Williams, spokesperson for Realestate.co.nz." (stuffy.conz 3/10/22)

'Mexican standoff' and the problem sellers have is supply is increasing markedly whilst interest rates are inching up...they will have no option but to hold or fold... Owner occupiers will ride it out... Time will grind out those that over reached.

by Averageman | 3rd Oct 22, 11:33am 1664749991

Ground out indeed, and the leveraged speculator will be the meat...

by DTRH | 3rd Oct 22, 11:19am 1664749196

93.2% up in stock compared to same time last year. One or two people on here have been stating stock level are falling dwindling even no wonder they need to see a financial advisor. On top of this we are seeing asking prices drop 10k a month and in some places 20k. With inflation and rates climbing and NZD tanking you would have to be a absolute tool to be talking up housing market.

by Brock Landers | 3rd Oct 22, 11:22am 1664749369

TTP has entered the chat.

by Zen20 | 3rd Oct 22, 11:45am 1664750735

you forgot the mnzm

by Independent_Observer | 3rd Oct 22, 12:24pm 1664753077

Glad you spotted that as well. He's been doing that on and off during the years. Then if you call him out on it - he losses the plot and says 'prove it!'.

(and he goes back and edits his comments so that its no longer there, then he says 'you're lying'!....classic play from a pscyopath who likes to make people feel like they're going crazy).

by have no idea | 3rd Oct 22, 6:17pm 1664774239

classic play from a pscyopath who likes to make people feel like they're going crazy

It's called "gaslighting"

by tim52 | 3rd Oct 22, 12:12pm 1664752331

This is with investors and recent FHB holding the line. Most of them still believe this a natural part of the "housing cycle".

Another percent or two increase in rates over the summer and no one will be showing up the open homes. Then they might realise the current rates have not been priced in yet and selling now is still a good price (10-20% off the peak). Or, they will just wishfully believe we will magically get mortgage rates back under 2%.

by balance | 3rd Oct 22, 11:25am 1664749529

At what stage would the govt or reserve bank have to intervene if prices kept falling? Sounds to me like construction has about 6 months of work booked up and then it gets lean. If no-ones buying and there are no gain, whats the incentive?

by SND | 3rd Oct 22, 11:49am 1664750977

Builders can probably cut a bit of their margin. I see new projects here, built on 500k sections (less than 650m²), advertised for close to 2 millions. Those are relatively big houses, but worth 1.5 millions to build?

Kelly Maree Cres, Flagstaff, Hamilton, Waikato (trademe.co.nz)

Well, I say builders but it's more a systemic issue, everyone wanting to have a piece of the cake.

by HW2 | 3rd Oct 22, 9:19pm 1664785153

The section will cost much more than 500k, at least 700k. Makes 35percent of total house and land value.... about right

by Independent_Observer | 3rd Oct 22, 12:21pm 1664752902

Only if the banks start looking vulnerable to collapse - but they keep telling everyone that they have very strong balance sheets (including adhering to Basel capital adequacy requirements) so I guess there isn't any need for intervention anywhere in the near future.

Recent FHB's will get wiped out before the banks are near collapse.

by HW2 | 3rd Oct 22, 9:23pm 1664785393

When will you be an fhb, is it still your dream to own a home. Then someone will laugh at you saying " look at IO, wasn't he ....... (smart/stupid- insert your adjective) buying a home in 2024"

by Wiseguy | 3rd Oct 22, 11:37am 1664750252

So the bubble is deflating at a faster rate than thought, and now they are trying to resuscitate the dying property market.

Spring bounce or dead cat bounce

by IT GUY | 3rd Oct 22, 12:15pm 1664752524

Its not uncommon to see a dearth of listing in premium locations in a downturn, the owners have no need to sell and know they cannot get the price they want so they will hold. Happened in GFC. But its not a couple of suburbs that set the market, rather the guts of the market in the middle.... WGTN vendors have accepted lower prices , its coming to Auckland by March next year...

by Justa comment | 3rd Oct 22, 12:31pm 1664753508

I think Orr will get his slowdown when mortgage rates hit 6. We are about 0.5% away from what RBNZ is trying to achieve.

by Hastings | 3rd Oct 22, 12:51pm 1664754667

How long until St Heliers and the like become gated communities. Some of the price stability in these affluent areas is anticipating a time when safety is the ongoing concern. A curse upon politicians present and past who have knowingly trashed equality and fair opportunity in NZ society. Vote alternative to the red and blue team parasites.

by JimboJones | 3rd Oct 22, 2:15pm 1664759714

They are pretty much gated communities in a way as the law prevents new houses being built in those areas. Its supposedly to keep the character or some rubbish, but its really just to keep the riffraff out.

by Nifty1 | 3rd Oct 22, 1:03pm 1664755410

Agents will be praying to the weather gods for some sun... it's been shocking in Auckland so far.

by nguturoa | 4th Oct 22, 6:36am 1664818569

Waikato is still booming.

by lekkerbydiesee | 3rd Oct 22, 3:36pm 1664764571

please can we not make this forum the "TTP show". There are some really smart people on here which add so much in terms of anecdotal, statistical and empirical evidence as to what is actually going on in the market.

I urge people to only respond to comments worthy of a response and ignore noise.

by interest-ed | 3rd Oct 22, 4:33pm 1664768019

I dunno, I kind of enjoy seeing him get it wrong so often.

by 7jai | 3rd Oct 22, 9:16pm 1664784994

Just to satisfy those who want the housing market to plummet and crash, and also to increase my LIKES count, I would like to simply say "the housing market should drop another 50% to be even be considered"!!! Much more room to grow!

Like this comment if you agree!!

-7jai