Buyer's market continues with the number of homes for sale up 39% year-on-year

Property / news

Realestate.co.nz figures show stock levels up and asking prices down, warns many vendors still have unrealistic price expectations

1st Feb 23, 1:30pm by Greg Ninness

The buyer's market for residential property looks set to continue this year, with the number of properties for sale the highest at the start of a year since 2015.

Property website Realestate.co.nz had 27,732 residential properties available for sale at the end of January. That's up a whopping 39.4% compared to the same time last year.

That was the highest level of stock available for sale on the website for the month of January in eight years.

The relative slowness of the market was underscored by the fact that January's high stock levels occurred in spite of the number of new listings received during the month dropping to 6646, down 16% compared to January 2022.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, properties also appear to be taking longer to sell.

The average length of time properties were advertised for sale on Realestate.co.nz in January was up 25% compared to January last year.

Asking prices are also falling.

The average asking price of properties advertised for sale on the website in January was $889,036, down $131,816 (-13.3%) compared to January last year.

January's average asking price was the lowest in any month of the year since September 2021.

But even those prices may be too high for some buyers, leaving many vendors disappointed.

Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said vendors were either taking longer to find a buyer or were eventually deciding not to sell when they failed to achieve their expected price.

"We hear from agents around the country that sellers have lowered their price expectations but that their expectations are often not as low as the market in their region," she said.

"Agents are having to work hard right now to find the middle ground between what vendors want and what buyers want to pay," she said.

The charts below show the total stock levels, number of new listings and average asking price in each region in January, and the percentage change compared to a year ago.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

65 Comments

by Beanie | 1st Feb 23, 1:37pm 1675211842

Talking to local agent she said "there are no buyers". Had a look on her face like a ferry passenger that's just been asked to put on a life jacket.

by Averageman | 1st Feb 23, 1:40pm 1675212016

There are no buyers at the "Price by Speculation" price points. Reality - next month interest rates will be over 3x that available during Covid.

Do the math.

by J.C. | 1st Feb 23, 1:48pm 1675212483

Do the math.

The problem is people don't. Too many blibical prophecies such as 'house prices double every 7-10 years'. They need to rethink the balance of the purchase as a consumption good and an investment / savings vehicle.

Not looking at you Granny Herald.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 1st Feb 23, 1:59pm 1675213162

Definitely needs to be some education on investment portfolios and risk for Kiwis. It surely is an systematic economic risk if people have too many retirement fun eggs in too few baskets.

by J.C. | 1st Feb 23, 2:03pm 1675213435

Definitely needs to be some education on investment portfolios and risk for Kiwis.

Adrian Orr said that housing is a 'consumption good'. I feel like I'm the only person who heard that.

by Smudge02 | 1st Feb 23, 3:04pm 1675217084

housing is a 'consumption good'

It should be included in the CPI figures then shouldn't it? Imagine our inflation figure if that was the case!!!

by HouseMouse | 1st Feb 23, 2:05pm 1675213539

As a general comment, most of the population (est. >90%) don’t think critically on anything, let alone matters of finance.

by Carlos67 | 1st Feb 23, 2:18pm 1675214301

Well you have to be honest in that you will only know what house prices will be in 10 years........ by waiting 10 years. Could they still double from the bottom of this current market, sure they can.

by Juzz | 1st Feb 23, 2:47pm 1675216079

So in 10 years they may be back at last year's prices?

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:19pm 1675225159

WTF they are already! Just look!

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:19pm 1675225169

WTF they are already! Just look!

by DTRH | 1st Feb 23, 5:47pm 1675226838

Carlos everyone is aware house price’s are falling at the quickest pace seen in recent times even faster than Ireland and look what happened there. You seem to have no idea what’s going on with house price’s.

by Pa1nter | 1st Feb 23, 10:06pm 1675242415

They also rose quicker than any point in recent times. It's not an analogous situation to Ireland circa GFC.

And therein lies the issue with so many saying this is the financial reckoning unfolding that's been in the wings, because the current issues are related more to a global health event than the status quo imploding on itself.

Maybe the two things will occur at the same time, but it seems fairly brazen to weight your view on it being all about the latter whilst almost totally ignoring the rather obvious former.

by K.W. | 2nd Feb 23, 11:13am 1675289580

Covid is now irrelevant. The only thing relevant is interest rates and the availability of credit - whether they go up or down, how much banks are prepared to lend. What actually causes central banks to put interest rates up or down doesnt matter, the outcome is the exact same. Arguably this time its worse than the GFC because now we have inflation as well has higher interest rates, so interest rates are going to stay higher for longer unlike the GFC where central banks cut interest rates rapidly and implemented Quantitative Easing in order to save the housing market.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:17pm 1675225040

The one that makes me laugh is " you never lose on property" ....

I've brought many a property of couples that have lost by...

1.buying when high and divorcing when low

2. over paying with big mortgages and then losing work...

3. Following a dream on mum and dads inheritance then trying another urgent dream 😃..

I love it. . .. stupidity is quite a big industry in NZ .

by Retail shop | 1st Feb 23, 6:03pm 1675227828

"I've brought many a property of couples that have lost by..."

Where did you bring it to?

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 2:11pm 1675300291

Some are genuinely unlucky.

Btw Its not just property that stupid people manage to stuff up

by Smudge02 | 1st Feb 23, 1:47pm 1675212465

There are plenty of buyers, just very few buyers who are prepared to blindly jump into insane amounts of debt to pay an over inflated price for a property that will be worth less in 12 months time. Many vendors still have their heads firmly in the sand.

by tuisbest | 1st Feb 23, 1:48pm 1675212488

Good point. "There are no realistic sellers" might be more apt, or is at least the other side of the coin.

by Nellbell | 1st Feb 23, 2:58pm 1675216721

I agree, we are in a position to buy having sold months and months back, but list prices here are increasing ( see Wairarapa on the above chart) despite the HPI rolling back to what it was two years ago. We think there are either a lot of greedy vendors out there or it is possible that agents are offering high appraisals to ensure they get the listing - there are way too many agents here, a legacy from the heady days of COVID cheap money.

Whatever the reason we are not engaging as a buyer; we ring and ask the price and if it’s too high we scrub the house off our list. At the moment very few houses on our list.

by Averageman | 1st Feb 23, 8:09pm 1675235365

Agree. Agents misrepresenting financial reality to secure the listing, and greedy vendors is whats happening. The agents are setting the sellers up for an extended period on the market as prices continue to decline.

by interesting1234 | 1st Feb 23, 4:29pm 1675222158

Can verify, have spoken to numerous agends around houses that have been relisted several times in Nelson/Tasman and they have all said the same thing:

Previous RE agent listed the property at a price which didn't match the current market.

Most hilarious part is that even the newly listed price is still far above what the places are worth

by HW2 | 1st Feb 23, 5:15pm 1675224948

Are you wanting lifestyle block

by smudge1 | 1st Feb 23, 3:33pm 1675218838

100% smudge02. You are very wise. From the original Smudge.

by Smudge02 | 1st Feb 23, 5:22pm 1675225330

Ha who would have thought, another Smudge!!!

by blobbles | 1st Feb 23, 5:49pm 1675226972

I can barely read what you guys are writing

by tulips | 1st Feb 23, 1:47pm 1675212443

Time to start looking for a new job. Most real estate agents will struggle over the next few years

by J.C. | 1st Feb 23, 1:49pm 1675212593

Time to start looking for a new job. Most real estate agents will struggle over the next few years

Could be a good wicket for those who understand how to sell in this kind of market. Remember the ABC: Always Be Closing.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:23pm 1675225398

Agree with all above!...

Owners who need to sell will drop thus forcing the rest to match... So on so forth until ... Oh looky looky... We have a recession ✅

by tothepoint | 1st Feb 23, 8:13pm 1675235611

Hi Beanie,

Sadly, REA's can't necessarily be relied upon. They tend to twist the facts in their own best interests - which boils down to maximising their commission. Of course, there are exceptions but they appear not widespread.

It's wise to take what REA's say with a grain of salt. Often, the opposite of what they say holds the truth. Avoid being gullible.

TTP

by nguturoa | 1st Feb 23, 1:45pm 1675212355

The sellers are still expecting unreasonable prices. So i think it's a standstill at the moment.

by bw | 1st Feb 23, 1:52pm 1675212723

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

And where is the biggest of them all, judging by that last graphic? Auckland, our largest city on many metrics? Wellington, our capital city?

Nope - Queenstown. The epitome of a tiny town, kilometres from everywhere, based on property speculation. (Tourism! I hear you say? That's just the excuse...)

by Averageman | 1st Feb 23, 2:05pm 1675213540

When the brakes go in the SI Lakes area from Aussie and Auckland buying in Queenstown, half of the locals working who work in the construction run the risk of being unemployed and having to relocate elsewhere. Will indeed be a mess.

by Te Kooti | 1st Feb 23, 3:32pm 1675218730

That's your opinion, but what is actually happening there?

by IT GUY | 1st Feb 23, 8:10pm 1675235435

Totally agree, have had Queenstown ski season passes the last few years and spent AKL lockdown in QTown. I used to ski there in the 1980's as a uni student. I know a lot of locals who are mortgage free, but they will all tell you at 1am after too many beers/wines etc , QTown runs on construction, when it stops its all over.

by malamah | 1st Feb 23, 8:57pm 1675238273

As for the regular jobs, it’s all high school students run off their feet. A few desperate carrot stuffers in the galleries. But mostly high school students. Being there recently, I was being as helpful as possible every encounter. Behind the shop windows it’s a flustered mess. Best keep to the mountains and tarns

by Pa1nter | 1st Feb 23, 10:00pm 1675242055

Pissed local anecdotes aside, construction is 13% of Queenstowns economy.

by Snow | 1st Feb 23, 2:01pm 1675213263

Going to need more shades of green for "Total Housing Stock".

by PineTreez | 1st Feb 23, 2:34pm 1675215244

It's a buyers market at the bottom of the price curve. And a brutal market (for buyers and sellers losing equity) until it gets there.

Some folk have realised they can slave at their jobs for a lifetime and still hit retirement with debt to the bank. Those are the folks holding back. They'll be sweet if they can just hold back.... and hold their jobs, and their marriages and keep their breeding in check.

by Averageman | 1st Feb 23, 2:44pm 1675215864

Check out the speculation losses. Awk and Well have Welly have rolled back to pre covid prices, and the regional markets are signalling they are about to start the similar decline. The talking heads are also predicting another 20% decline could be on the cards. Both links from Granny Herald the Property pumper.

Anyone buying in the next month better be well funded, or safe income and planning a long term hold.

Poppin that Corn

by refactornz | 1st Feb 23, 3:15pm 1675217717

The talking heads are also predicting another 20% decline could be on the cards.

That's not at all what the article says. If anything, it's saying that prices have nearly bottomed out:

Annual house prices continue to track down with the market expected to fall between 15 and 20 per cent from its peak, potentially hitting the trough in the second half of this year.

by waymad | 1st Feb 23, 2:56pm 1675216565

Prices sticky on the downside. Whodathunk?

by Averageman | 1st Feb 23, 3:11pm 1675217478

If you don't have to sell then don't. That said a very large chunk of mortgages are rolling from 2% to something around three times greater. Buyers know this. Have fun.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:26pm 1675225561

Roger, 10-4, will do!

by Nellbell | 1st Feb 23, 3:08pm 1675217324

Anyone watching the auctions today? Had a quick look this morning - my first for the year. They are a bit grim.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:31pm 1675225889

RW Marsden last Friday .. going once, going twice, going... passed in!

All properties now for sale by Tender . WTF... That's just spin for" By neg.... But we want to pressurize the buyer into acting before a date" bullcrap!

RE Agents are below car salesman in the "Bottom dwelling gauge"

by nguturoa | 1st Feb 23, 4:07pm 1675220847

by Averageman | 1st Feb 23, 4:07pm 1675220862

Indeed. Greed vs ever declining reality. Feb OCR hike anyone....?

by Hemi Ti Wire | 1st Feb 23, 5:33pm 1675226026

I hope it's 1% 👿.. it's time this overindulged country was brought back to reality!

by SND | 1st Feb 23, 3:50pm 1675219810

"Agents are having to work hard right now to find the middle ground between what vendors want and what buyers can pay," she said.

FIFY

by Jesse1 | 1st Feb 23, 4:37pm 1675222675

Yeah and if the middle ground is somewhere higher than where buyer can pay, still no sales happen.

by Yvil | 1st Feb 23, 4:39pm 1675222794

many vendors still have unrealistic price expectations

Could be me, I just turned down a pretty good offer.

by DTRH | 1st Feb 23, 5:30pm 1675225831

Yvil did you miss selling at top dollar end of 2021.it will be years maybe a decade until we see price high’s again. Many people and investors like yourself will be in for big shock when refinance time comes. Losing 10% or 20% is better than losing the lot.

by Yvil | 2nd Feb 23, 8:32am 1675279929

It's the house my mother-on-law lives in, so I was not going to sell it at all, but she had a stoke in October 2022. We were hoping she would recover but alas she's still partly paralysed, so she needs to be in a smaller place with care.

by HouseMouse | 1st Feb 23, 7:58pm 1675234711

Worried about the apartments on the way in St Mary’s Bay?

by singautim | 1st Feb 23, 8:04pm 1675235065

House prices are returning towards something rational. However inflation of the NZ$ is high and who can predict where it might go. I'm confident that however far house prices fall there will always be someone wanting to live in my house but the same sum of money in the bank is no certainty - just because NZ has never had hyper-inflation doesn't mean it can't happen.

Having lived in London during the seventies I bought in Auckland with no idea that property prices would go crazy (I mean I never expected both right and left govts to behave so stupidly). I bought as a hedge against inflation.

by Wrong John | 1st Feb 23, 8:34pm 1675236846

Have a family member trying to sell ATM. No buyers, it's true. Mexican stand-off.

by Averageman | 2nd Feb 23, 7:58am 1675277935

Indeed. It's not that people don't want to buy, its that they cannot due to a retreat in the accessibility of credit.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 7:20am 1675275634

That and overall negative sentiment. If interest rates, consumer and construction costs are doing nothing but trending upwards with seemingly no end in sight then that's not an environment most people are wanting to make larger financial decisions in.

by Piggy | 1st Feb 23, 10:09pm 1675242594

If I am reading this correctly the tables actually look pretty good for Welly - total stock up less than 10% and new listings down 26.5%. Asking price down a modest 1.8%. If there are some sales and new listings stay down then the tables may turn on the buyers. I also see that ANZ are cutting rates from tomorrow - the banks clearly think inflation has peaked and in the medium term rates are coming down (albeit we may be in a recession by then). I don’t think it will take too much for fomo to make a come back.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 2nd Feb 23, 7:40am 1675276856

The greedy ANZ just want to take in more money and pay out less..

by Hemi Ti Wire | 2nd Feb 23, 7:31am 1675276296

Who has the best data .. Trade me who has 38,000 listings including all that REINZs listings plus all the non RE agents an private sale listings or.

The 27000 that the REINZ site has...

Note: trademe has 30% more listings which means the REINZs data is 30% inaccurate!

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 7:50am 1675277441

The sample size is 30% smaller. It may be less accurate by only a matter of degrees, depending on how different trademes extra 30% are.

by Chaosinflesh | 2nd Feb 23, 8:50am 1675281047

Trademe also lists a lot of relocatable buildings under 'Property for Sale'. Thousands of them, last I checked.

A relocatable building is only 'property' insomuch as a car is someone's 'property'.

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:14am 1675286041

How do agents bridge gap between what you want and what you'll get? | Stuff.co.nz