Barfoot & Thompson's residential sales plunged in February while stock levels rose substantially

Wasn't someone saying on here yesterday, that B&T made the call, that if all 3 months of Jan, Feb & March 2023 were crap, then it's all over rover .....

"buyers will have plenty to choose from as they take advantage of high stock levels"

Indeed. And throw in the banks are hacking each other to pieces to gain/keep market share, and it's all looking good.

But will it to the RBNZ?

More hard data that makes opinion pieces such as TA's Herald piece today look very biased. 

''However there was a ray of hope, with Thompson reporting...''

That would be a death ray (if anyone recalls 1950's science fiction).....

Young relative just gone into negative equity in Auckland. Bought in early 2021, heeded parents advice to 'get the biggest loan possible as you can't go wrong with the propatee - use debt to your advantage'. Ouch.

Gullible will still buy when they will listen to big stories from RE cartel.

As I said we reap what we sow. 

LOL my property loving associates that talk smack about bitcoin really be shining lights now.



When will foreclosures start, looking forward to seeing a ponzi collapse. 

Graph shows prices increasing there! The bottom has been found

3.5 new listings for every property sold during peak selling season. Prices have fallen 20% since peak in Auckland but are still less affordable.

Points to more price falls to come

Yeah I mentioned that, they are in trouble expenses will be higher then revenues, think office rent etc etc etc sure most agents on commision only but there are a lot of good agents that employ people......

I know someone whose properties have bucked the trend, and apparently gone up in value over the last year. I asked their source of this information, and they said:

1. Their bank tells them based of local QV data.

2. Oneroof says so.

3. Homes says so.

Digging further, they may be right - all available houses in their area are being snapped up by Kainga Ora, who are paying significantly more than they houses were marketed for only a year ago.

Average price down 7.9% and median down 8.9% compared to a year ago, ouch!

Barfoot & Thompson has been awarded the coveted title of 'Best International Real Estate Agency Over 20 Offices' at the highly competitive 2021-2022 International Property Awards (IPA) held at London's Savoy Hotel (25 February 2022).8/03/2022

🤣🤣 I almost fell off my perch when I was told this 

Seems a bit counterintuitive as most of the potential buyers should have been able to attend online auctions without going anywhere.



In fact its was opposite with covid specially with limits being imposed on people attending open homes or private viewings and restrictions on large gatherings.

Change, like winter, is coming. Agents finding alternative work, euro car repo and sale by auction, sale of Advo and Toast next to Barfoot etc branches plummet.

This must be sign of the time, the RE person who sold my home in Auckland few years ago. I notice she is selling quite a few items on Facebook marketplace; unused jewelleries, designer dresses, shoes.. next will be her 2 door sporty Merc!

That’s an average of just over 5 sales per branch for Barfoots - that’s loss making territory and sure to result in many sales people leaving the industry or taking on some Uber work or other part time jobs! 

20 to 25 years ago Barfoots had far less branches and a lot less salespeople so if this is the worst month in 25 years it truly is a shocker! 

Is it possible that people had their minds on other things with floods etc. last month than real estate from Barfoot and Thompson.

One bedroom for 1.4 mil !

Is it 1st of April?



https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/new-homes/new-apartment/auckland/a…

The sharp slowdown in house price declines in February is more a “false dawn” than a fundamental shift in the housing market, experts say.

CoreLogic’s data shows price falls lost further momentum over the month as home values dropped by 0.14 per cent nationwide – the smallest monthly fall since interest rates started rising in May last year.

Sydney house prices rose by 0.3 per cent in February, boosted by the upper end of the market according to CoreLogic. 

Sydney home values even managed to eke out a small 0.3 per cent gain during the month, helped by the stronger performance in the upper end of the market.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director said the stabilisation in housing values in February coincided with consistently low advertised supply levels and a rise in auction clearance rates.

New listings have dropped by 17 per cent in the past four weeks compared with a year ago and are now sitting 11.9 per cent below the previous five-year average.

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Auction clearance rates also bounced back through February, with the capital city weighted average reaching the high 60 per cent range through the second half of the month, while Sydney clearance rates punched above 70 per cent in the week ending February 19, for the first time since February 2022.

But the improving trend might not last, as higher interest rates, weakening economic conditions and fading consumer confidence dent demand, Mr Lawless says.

Low listings

“Low listings are helping put a floor under price falls, but the downside risks still seem to be significant, when you consider interest rates will be moving higher,” he said.

“Considering the RBA’s move to a more hawkish stance at the February board meeting, along with an expectation for a weaker economic performance and a loosening in labour markets, there is a good chance this reprieve in the housing downturn could be shortlived.”

Home values in every capital city fell at a slower rate during the month, except Darwin, which posted a higher monthly decline. Meanwhile, prices in all capitals except Hobart fell by less than 0.5 per cent during the same period.

Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s chief economist, said prices were likely to resume falling at a faster rate in the months ahead as higher interest rates slashed borrowing capacity further.

“It’s clear that some sort of market stabilisation is happening, particularly in Sydney, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. I think it’s probably a false dawn,” Dr Oliver said.

“The problem is that the constraint on the buyer’s capacity to borrow remains in place. It’s still getting worse. For someone with a 20 per cent deposit, this has fallen by about 27 per cent. Historically borrowing capacity has a rough correlation with house prices, so even if interest rates stop rising, that hit to the capacity to pay remains in place.”

Independent economist Chris Richardson said that while the momentum in price falls had slowed, the fundamentals had not changed.

“They’re continuing to worsen. And that says to me, this is a false dawn, not the start of a reversal. The improved result is more about strangled supply than it is about a sea change in fundamentals,” Mr Richardson said.

“We’re still about to get at least two and quite possibly three rate rises and then the reset of 880,000 fixed rate loans. Wage growth might have lifted, but it’s lifted from terrible to bad. So, there’s simply not enough shift in the fundamentals to move prices into recovery.

“So I think faster price falls would resume in the next few months, and they will continue through this year.”

During the three months to February, prices have fallen by 2.4 per cent and 2.7 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne, respectively. In Brisbane, they are down by 3.2 per cent.

Adelaide has dropped by 1.4 per cent, Canberra 2.7 per cent, Perth 0.2 per cent and Darwin 1 per cent. Hobart was the worst performer with a 4.9 per cent decline in home values.

Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, said the price falls would quicken if interest rates rose above 4 per cent.

“If we break above 4 per cent, then these improving results will be a false dawn,” he said.

“This is one of the scenarios in our forecast where we start to see some strength return to the market, but then it eventually gets snuffed out by further rate rises.”

But independent economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the lower listings and a large rise in population could counter some impact of the rapid rate rises.

“I think we’re getting close to the bottom of the market,” he said.

“Further rate rises are clearly a negative for the housing market, but in my previous experience, rate hikes don’t always coincide with falling house prices. Between 2003 and 2008 when the RBA raised rates by 3 percentage points, house prices nationwide went up by 35 per cent because we had a big jump in population growth over that period and construction was low.

“We’re seeing similar dynamics now, and that’s one of the reasons why we will find this base in prices.”

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Nila Sweeney writes on property from our Sydney newsroom. Email Nila at nila.sweeney@afr.com.au

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