By Mike Blackburn*
Christchurch has been given the green light to manage its own growth — and the data shows it’s more than capable.
Under the Government’s 30-year housing target, the city needs to deliver 68,200 new homes by 2055, or around 2,274 a year. In the year to September 2025, Christchurch consented 3,964 new dwellings — that’s 175% of the long-term requirement.
So the question isn’t whether the city can build enough. The question is whether it can deliver the right mix of homes in the right places.
The 30-year plan only works if it adapts to how people actually live
We don’t build houses to meet a spreadsheet target — we build them because people need somewhere to live.
That demand comes from three shifting forces: population growth, the replacement of older housing stock, and changing household types and lifestyles.
Those drivers are constantly moving. Migration can surge, families can shrink, and older homes can reach the end of their life all at once — and none of that happens on a neat 30-year timeline. That’s why the long-term housing plan needs to function as a dynamic framework, not a one-off forecast.
The market ultimately decides where and when new housing happens, and plans need to keep pace with that reality.
While long-term planning is essential, assumptions about what the future might look like aren’t always based on what actually drives demand.
The invisible boundaries — and why they don’t matter
One critical thing for everyone to understand — from councils and government to developers and buyers — is that the boundary lines between Christchurch, Selwyn, and Waimakariri are really just lines on a map. Other than a change in who collects your rubbish or sets your rates, there’s little difference between Halswell and Prebbleton, or between Belfast and Kaiapoi — just five or ten minutes further down the road. If a buyer can’t get what they want in St Albans or Spreydon, then maybe Lincoln or Rangiora becomes the natural alternative.
And for anyone moving down from Auckland, a 45-minute commute for a 1,000 m² lifestyle section at a 30% discount feels less like compromise and more like winning Lotto.
The affordability illusion
Christchurch property prices are significantly cheaper than Auckland, and that price gap is a major driver of migration into Canterbury. But “cheaper” doesn’t always mean “affordable.” Developers are working hard to contain prices — smaller homes, smaller sections, denser layouts — yet affordability depends on household incomes, not just smaller land parcels.
Across Canterbury, 50 m² studios and 250 m² sections are now common in new developments, a sign of how the market is adapting. But for many families, the dream of a backyard hasn’t gone away — it’s simply moving further out.
The regional ripple - and the transport test
As Christchurch grows up, Selwyn and Waimakariri will keep growing out. That isn’t failure - it’s balance. But it only works if transport and infrastructure keep pace.
According to Stats NZ projections, Greater Christchurch’s population is expected to reach around 700,000 by 2050 and close to 1 million by 2070, and I believe this is an underestimation. That kind of growth demands forward planning that integrates both urban intensification and greenfield expansion.
The Greater Christchurch Partnership’s spatial plan once aimed to guide that future, but it focused almost entirely on intensification, effectively sidelining greenfield development. That narrow approach simply doesn’t reflect how Canterbury is growing.
To stay livable and connected, the region needs both: compact, well-located housing and new communities on the fringe supported by modern transport and infrastructure.
The opportunity ahead
Christchurch has shown it can deliver volume. The next step is delivering coherence — a region where intensification, lifestyle growth, and infrastructure planning all move in step.
Selwyn and Waimakariri aren’t the fringe anymore; they’re essential to Canterbury’s housing future.
If we get this balance right, Christchurch won’t just be building homes, it will be shaping the model for sustainable regional growth for New Zealand.
Mike Blackburn is the principal of Blackburn Management. You can contact him here.
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