The three big property portals ended 2025 with record levels of property for sale.
Realestate.co.nz had more than 30,000 for-sale listings. TradeMe Property had more than 41,000 for-sale listings. OneRoof had over 38,000.
Obviously each of these portals have many of the sale properties listed.
Realestate.co.nz said the end of 2025 saw December stock levels surpass 30,000 for the first time in any December in a decade and capped off a full year of consistently high supply, with more than 30,000 properties on the market every month of 2025.
The property market is typically quiet in December but this year saw a +2.8% year-on-year increase in new listings with 4,900 properties hitting the market to close out the year. Apart from the pandemic years, this is the first December year-on-year rise since 2014.
There is a whiff of desperation by sellers here, hoping to be early for the summer selling season that runs through to Easter 2026. Selling will be tougher. Typically, December is a time when vendors hit pause.
The Realestate.co.nz data for asking prices reveals how weak these have grown over the years. With December 2025 as the base, the rise in average asking prices over the past five years has only been +1.7% +0.5% per year. Over the past ten years it has only been +5.0% +3.3% pa and higher than barely keeping up with general inflation. Over 15 years, so that it captures more of the post GFC gains, it has been +4.8% pa.
(Updated to correct math errors in compound price growth rates.)
There are variations between towns and cities obviously. Auckland dominates the national pattern. Wellington ended the year weakly. Canterbury held up relatively well.
The 'high' number of properties listed is only 'high' in the context of the past ten years however.
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There is a whiff of desperation by sellers here, hoping to be early for the summer selling season that runs through to Easter 2026.
It'll be interesting to see if sales volumes pick up as April/May approaches and the listings continue to grow. FHB's still have plenty of options and reasonably priced homes seem to be selling. Anecdotally I know a few people who have bought together and pooled resources to reno their places for added value.
Sales volumes increasing on the back of low yield for investors and potential increase in the oldies downsizing?
Some investors can smell desperation like shark's smell blood.
Typical houses normally held 7 years average in NZ?
been almost 5 since the peak.
I think the predictable outcome is people holding for longer.
Unless you lose you job, or tenant(s), or both.
You know what they say, Where there's desperation there's money to be made!
🥂
I strangely find myself agreeing with you
The day has finally come. 🙌
about to come in USA as well
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-housing-inventory-is-risi…
Finally bit the bullet and started paying to support this site to correct David's math error above (well played?).
($860,274/$528,416)^(1/10)-1=4.99% p.a
Not the 3.3% David mentions above.
With a 3% - 5% rental yield on top, and a healthy dose of debt financing to push the required return down, most investors would easily meet their cost of capital at that level of capital growth.
You are right (of course). I mistakenly applied a 15 year term to the ten year period. I will revise the story now. :(
With a 3% - 5% rental yield on top, and a healthy dose of debt financing to push the required return down, most investors would easily meet their cost of capital at that level of capital growth.
Focus on what you don't know. If you can't quantify people's expectations, then you cannot really understand their behavior. Sure the investors may not be making out like bandits while keeping any potential wolves at bay, but the expectation keeps nagging away. And that can be causing fear, particularly if things are not unfolding like in the 7-10 year theory.
"Focus on what you don't know"
😂 that's a pearl of nonsense !
I'd call it the core phrase of an academic or inventor granted their goals.
that's a pearl of nonsense !
Kind of essential in the worlds of research and discovery Dr Y.
Requires a different effort to that of the property seminars.
Perhaps they will squeeze a little more juice out with all the fiddling arou8nd the edges with access to mortgages. Perhaps they will be ok due to natural resources such as what is noted here.
"Australia has the largest share of the world's economic silver resources, outstripping Mexico, Canada and the USA as a result of the discovery and development of the Mount Isa, Hilton-George Fisher, Cannington and McArthur River lead-zinc-silver deposits. About 25% of Australia's mine output is refined to silver metal and mainly sent to Japan. Most of the remainder is exported in lead bullion to the United Kingdom where it is extracted and refined."
Uncanny timing. Just saw this via Polymarket.
zerohedge can be better then reuters or bloomberg at times, diamonds in the rough etc
This is needed in Aotearoa. Polymarket announces plans to launch real estate prediction markets, allowing users to predict future home prices.
Per a Polymarket announcement on Monday, the real estate markets will settle against Parcl’s publicly verifiable city-level indices, designed to reduce ambiguity around outcomes. Prediction markets have begun moving beyond politics into sports, cultural, and real-world economic indicators. From Polymarket to Kalshi, the prediction trading market is likely to continue its rise in 2026 thanks to improved US regulation/approval.
https://watcher.guru/news/polymarket-to-launch-real-estate-prediction-m…
The 100k net immigrants the government is about to let in will soak up that inventory like a sponge.
I think for most immigrants there's a lag of at least a few years before they buy a house - maybe up to five They take a financial hit to save up enough to move countries. Then for a few years they're cautious and need to settle in, save, get jobs etc.
The transmission through to rentals is obviously faster.
Or their exit west.
Rumor of the cost of debt lifting again, noise of capital gains tax arriving, more new cheaper stock available, less new renter suckers arriving. Don't forget the election and risk of the anti property speculators getting power.
I'd be trying to exit the interest only boat anchor as well.
🍿 26 gonna be a fun year.
but beat general inflation over the past decade
How much things have changed in the country of NZ. From prices doubling every 10 years to barely beating inflation...
I love how cotality are predicting 5% increase for the third year in a row....
….like a broken clock…
Their ability to predict anything is totally rubbish.
With interests rates on the march north, expect a more likely drop of -5 to -10%.
ZB lead the release of their forecast as the end of the markets falls..... had to concentrate on driving I was laughing so much. We are so desperate as to lead with a forecast as good news.
Phantom whiffs of hopium in the air.
There is a lot of stock priced up in the air..... waiting for the hard landing.
It's not just here, in the US cities stock is also way up.
Your kiwisaver move may have been a fine choice. IMO the question isn't if, it's when, and what will be the catalyst. Market's aren't rational or logical currently and the feeling is that everything is running on a knife's edge. Many are overconfident and boasting the good times will go on forever, some are hedging with commodities and metals just in case, and others all in on metals. Tick tock
Your second sentence contradicted the first.
So you're saying if it's a prediction from Cotality, it's rubbish, but from you it's a statement of fact?
NZs Talk ZB ran with it, that the bad times are over and woohoo cotaility forecast 5% gains.
its why many of us have lost faith in media.
Property has proven to be a good inflation hedge over the last 15 years. No wonder it's so popular with kiwis.
can I correct that....
Until October of 2021 - Property had proven to be a good inflation hedge over the previous 15 years.
Since then, precious metals have provided a much more effective hedge against inflation
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