Almost 60% of all commercial properties listed for lease are currently in Auckland. That's more than 15,250 of them.
Nationally, the number of all listed properties for lease on realestate.co.nz now exceeds 28,000, the highest since we started tracking this at the start of 2025.
This is somewhat unexpected, because in an economic recovery, this metric is often a leading indicator.
But there are clear positive signs in the South Island. Apart from Nelson, commercial for-lease listings are either stable in Christchurch, rising modestly but slower than the national average in Dunedin, and are virtually non-existent in both Queenstown and Invercargill.
In Wellington, the story is the reverse. These listings are up +15.8% in a year. But that is not the highest increase. They are up +17.7 in New Plymouth, and +24.6% in Tauranga.
In Hamilton the annual rise is +10.5%, below the national average of +12.7% over the same period.
The same wide variability occurs in the Auckland quadrants. While most listings occur in Auckland Central they are now down -4% to 3957 from the peak in August. North Shore for-lease listings are now falling too.
The toughest section of Auckland is in Manukau/South Auckland where they have risen to record highs, even if the absolute number in the market is still relatively modest, and less than Christchurch even though South Auckland has a similar population.
5 Comments
The forecasts of a phoenix like rise from the ashes are soooo overblown. I can't believe we're mistaking the current data as indicative of anything like a decent recovery. People have a bit more to spend, so businesses are restoring their margins / balance sheets, and households are catching up on a few larger purchases. Then what?
Double posting myself from earlier :-)
IMO we need to immediately cease high-traffic roading with parking being converted to cycle lanes. People who go to cafes in the winter on a weekday are never, ever, ever, ever going to cycle there. Put cycle lanes through parks and on side streets, not areas that drive economic activity and jobs. Rintoul St in Wellington is another economic casualty. RIP. People don't want to live or trade there now because guess what you need in Wellington 90% of the time? A car because the weather sucks and it's hilly.
Like the raised road crossings, the best money we could spend on cycle lanes that disrupt trade is to re-route them away from places where we want folks to shop.
Not to worry, I've been told the dairy boom will flow through soon because it's the back bone of the economy.
How is the "Green Shoot" index looking, I have heard less mention since pre xmas.
As I have been saying we are in a mortgage ARM setting we are at lows and rates will rise , be 12/18 or 24 months they will rise.
ANY good news will be snuffed out by interest rate rises, it's a lost decade or longer until debt is repaid, and discretionary spending recovers. some interesting jetski deals on trademe at the moment.
Need a Retail/Office/Industrial split for this to be a worthwhile story.
🥂
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