A key leading economic indicator is not positive yet

Demand for commercial premises remains modest nationally, although there are some encouraging pockets, mostly in the South Island

Property / analysis

Demand for commercial premises remains modest nationally, although there are some encouraging pockets, mostly in the South Island

25th Feb 26, 1:10pm by David Chaston

Almost 60% of all commercial properties listed for lease are currently in Auckland. That's more than 15,250 of them.

Nationally, the number of all listed properties for lease on realestate.co.nz now exceeds 28,000, the highest since we started tracking this at the start of 2025.

This is somewhat unexpected, because in an economic recovery, this metric is often a leading indicator.

But there are clear positive signs in the South Island. Apart from Nelson, commercial for-lease listings are either stable in Christchurch, rising modestly but slower than the national average in Dunedin, and are virtually non-existent in both Queenstown and Invercargill.

In Wellington, the story is the reverse. These listings are up +15.8% in a year. But that is not the highest increase. They are up +17.7 in New Plymouth, and +24.6% in Tauranga.

In Hamilton the annual rise is +10.5%, below the national average of +12.7% over the same period.

The same wide variability occurs in the Auckland quadrants. While most listings occur in Auckland Central they are now down -4% to 3957 from the peak in August. North Shore for-lease listings are now falling too.

The toughest section of Auckland is in Manukau/South Auckland where they have risen to record highs, even if the absolute number in the market is still relatively modest, and less than Christchurch even though South Auckland has a similar population.

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8 Comments

by Jonny.Foe | 25th Feb 26, 1:23pm 1771979035

The forecasts of a phoenix like rise from the ashes are soooo overblown. I can't believe we're mistaking the current data as indicative of anything like a decent recovery. People have a bit more to spend, so businesses are restoring their margins / balance sheets, and households are catching up on a few larger purchases. Then what?

by Let me be Frank | 25th Feb 26, 6:46pm 1771998416

"People have a bit more to spend,"

A small cohort have more to spend....and it is in their interests to do so....most however have less ability to meet the weekly/monthly demands upon their income.

That greater group are rapidly running out of things to cut from their list of unnecessaries.

by nktokyo | 25th Feb 26, 1:29pm 1771979385

Double posting myself from earlier :-)

IMO we need to immediately cease high-traffic roading with parking being converted to cycle lanes. People who go to cafes in the winter on a weekday are never, ever, ever, ever going to cycle there. Put cycle lanes through parks and on side streets, not areas that drive economic activity and jobs. Rintoul St in Wellington is another economic casualty. RIP. People don't want to live or trade there now because guess what you need in Wellington 90% of the time? A car because the weather sucks and it's hilly.

Like the raised road crossings, the best money we could spend on cycle lanes that disrupt trade is to re-route them away from places where we want folks to shop.

by ghytresd | 26th Feb 26, 1:31am 1772022691

never, ever, ever, ever

I see gangs of geriatrics on their e-bikes riding to my local cafe all year round via a dedicated stormwater path. Fyi

On ya bike, you might even enjoy it!

by MikeM7382 | 25th Feb 26, 2:31pm 1771983119

Not to worry, I've been told the dairy boom will flow through soon because it's the back bone of the economy.

by IT GUY | 25th Feb 26, 2:53pm 1771984438

How is the "Green Shoot" index looking, I have heard less mention since pre xmas.

As I have been saying we are in a mortgage ARM setting we are at lows and rates will rise , be 12/18 or 24 months they will rise.

ANY good news will be snuffed out by interest rate rises, it's a lost decade or longer until debt is repaid, and discretionary spending recovers. some interesting jetski deals on trademe at the moment.

by MikeM7382 | 26th Feb 26, 6:23am 1772040223

We've moved past the greenshoots stage and are now in the boom stage according to the likes of Roger J Kerr.

by Cote d'Azur | 25th Feb 26, 3:26pm 1771986382

Need a Retail/Office/Industrial split for this to be a worthwhile story.

🥂

by Bruce Crawford 4279 | 28th Feb 26, 11:12am 1772230376

"This is somewhat unexpected, because in an economic recovery, this metric is often a leading indicator."

Buy hey! Let's not let the facts get in the way of a positive story. Our economic recovery is well underway, the economy is really starting to hum and inflation will fall to 2% this year.