REINZ says fall in December house sales volumes follows 'drop in listings' after good November sales

REINZ says fall in December house sales volumes follows 'drop in listings' after good November sales

House sales volumes and prices fell in December last year versus both December 2009 and the previous month of November, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) says, as the number of new sales listings dropped and demand softened.

In its December Residential Market Report the REINZ says the volume of sales in December fell 11.3% to 4,397 from 4,957 in December 2009 and 14.4% from 5,138 in November 2010.

The national median sale price eased back NZ$8,000 or 2.2% to NZ$352,000 in December from NZ$360,000 in November.

The national median number of days to sell dropped to 39 in December from 40 in November.

Helen O’Sullivan, the REINZ's chief executive, said the drop in sales volumes followed a fall in listings in December and in the number of houses on the market due to good November sales.  For November the REINZ said a spike in listings at the beginning of the month led to a "late flush" of spring activity.

Realestate.co.nz reported that December saw the lowest recorded level of new listings since January 2007 with just 8,924 coming onto the market during the month leaving total inventory at 50.1 weeks of equivalent sales, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis, in December down from 53.2 weeks in November. As of December 6 there were 65,885 houses listed for sale on Trade Me and 49,300 listed on Realestate.co.nz. That compares to 63,452 and 48,406, respectively, on November 1. See interest.co.nz's chart on houses for sale here.

Meanwhile, O'Sullivan said December sales volumes were always subject to the timing and impact of "the great New Zealand Christmas shut down."

"January’s figures will provide a better picture of market activity over summer," said O'Sullivan. "Anecdotally our members are reporting increased activity so it will be interesting to see how that translates into listings and sales.” 

The REINZ data comes after Quotable Value (QV) said last week nationwide residential property values were down 0.9% in December from the same time a year earlier and 5.8% below their late-2007 market peak.

QV also said New Zealand's residential property market was unlikely to be much different in 2011 than 2010 unless there were significant changes in the wider economy, with consumer confidence needing to improve before the property market picked up.

Meanwhile, Barfoot and Thompson said earlier this month it sold 524 properties in Auckland during the first three weeks of December, down 19.1% from the same period of 2009. The real estate agent said the first half of 2011 would be the best time to act for homeowners looking to sell their properties during the year.

Tax changes reduce demand

JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans said weaker demand for property saw the REINZ house price index drop 1.6% over 2010 and 0.6% in December.

"Since new tax measures were introduced (in last May's Budget) preventing property investors from offsetting their losses against income and other taxes, demand for real estate has pulled back considerably," said Kevans.

The volume of house sales in May, when the tax changes were introduced, was 5,206.

Kevans also said slow sales had kept inventory levels elevated, meaning the backlog of unsold properties sitting on the market would depress house prices further.

"Indeed, no dramatic revival is anticipated this year," she added.
 
"The fundamentals for the housing market are soft, as households continue to shy away from taking on additional debt. The process of balance sheet repair has further to run, but a gradual improvement in the labour market should help lift demand in the second-half of 2011," said Kevans.

Read the REINZ's statement below:

December’s sales and residential property values ebbed from November levels but on a more positive note, both market activity and median prices remained up on figures from earlier in the year, according to statistics released today by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

“December’s residential property sales volumes flagged a little relative to November,” says REINZ Chief Executive Helen O’Sullivan. 

“But while volumes have ebbed, December’s sales were higher than in the months of August to October of the same year.  That’s relatively rare, as December volumes are usually lower than even the winter months, and bodes well for activity levels in the new year.” 

“The decline in turnover has followed a fall in listings in December and in the number of houses on the market as a result of good sales in November,” says Helen O’Sullivan. “December sales volumes are always subject to the timing and impact of the great New Zealand Christmas shut down and January’s figures will provide a better picture of market activity over summer.  Anecdotally our members are reporting increased activity so it will be interesting to see how that translates into listings and sales.”  

The most up to the minute statistics on recent property value movements across New Zealand, the REINZ report on sales in December indicates district median prices at the end of the year were an average of 2.2 per cent down on December 2009.  From $360,000 in November 2010 and in December 2009, the national median eased back to $352,000 in December 2010, still higher than the median prices in July, August, September and October.

Total dwelling sales fell back to 4,397 in December from 5,138 in November, which is also down on the December 2009 total of 4,957.  But last month’s dwelling sales median is up on the August, September and October medians and the volume of 4,397 was higher than the 4,302 transactions in December 2008.  The national median ‘days to sell’ reduced slightly from 40 in November to 39 in December.

Nationally the total value of residential sales, including sections, fell to $1.9 Billion in December from $2.26 Billion in November. The breakdown of the values of the properties sold is 154 for $1 million plus, 517 between $600,000 and $999,999, 1,106 between $400,000 and $599,999 and 2,620 for under $400,000.

Wellington’s median last month held steady at the December 2009 median price of $400,000 and sales were up from 548 in December 2009 to 586 in 2010. Southland’s December 2010 median is also the same as 12 months ago at $184,000 while Otago’s median price of $235,000 was up 2.17 per cent on the previous year.  In all other districts the December 2010 median price is down between 1.5 and 7.5 percent on the same month in 2009 and most districts also reported a fall in sales volumes.

See the REINZ's residential market statistics here and monthly housing price index here.

(Updates add further detail, background and Helen Kevans' comments).

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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129 Comments

Where's OllyN ....quick Olly...the RE parasites need your help ...again!

here's a soundbyte of the Great guru Olly for those that love to hear the sound of his syrupy reassurance that all is well according the the gospel of St. Olly..

http://www.empowereducation.com/Market-Update-sample-audio.html

Interesting.  Still down, but only by about 11% or so.  Each month, the % down YoY keeps going down.  Which means by february or so we will not be down.  Sorta a throw away comment I just made tho, given February was quite a low and the market collapsed then. But still.

Big month for mortgagee sales in December. So factor that in

stink .... Aucklands dec medium now 5k down from the 07 market peak...  and pulling back from a record breaking November 10  . God the collapse is relentless !!!  yawn..  

 

With the results in, 2010 narrowly missed setting another all-time record for low volumes - surely not what anyone predicted at the start of the year.

2003 120,108

2004 107,082

2005 104,461

2006 102,042

2007  92,101

2008  56,056

2009  69,629

2010  56,303

 

Another 2% drop .

Slowly , slowly this overpriced housing  market is correcting itself .

Not to worry however, because  every market corrects itself over time, and for Kiwi's its better that this happens slowly and not with wild gyrations.

RJ  have you got Statistics for Mortgagee sales in December?  I kept a lookout for Mortgagee sales on the North Shore , and there were very few  in the run up to Christmas, and there were no auctions for the lats week or so.

I assume most were outside Auckland? 

Does anyone else see a familiar trand here - house prices double, then stay relatively flat for 8 years or so before taking off again. Looking back over history this seems to be the norm...  The question is, will it keep happening?  Will house prices start increasing in 5 years time?

You're dreaming.

What we're seeing are ridiculously bloated prices beginning to crumble and it's pretty likely that those prices will drop WAY back down to where they were before the stupid bloody house bubble began in the early 2000s.

Such a waste...Labour put so much effort into blowing the bubbles to fool the fools and it worked so well until we got sick of her in red.

I agree with you Boatman.  I'd rather see the housing market correcting itself in a decent time frame..  Otherwise, 99% of people will be in the shXt if it drops too quickly - and that may include Wollly!

Not me moa...faster and greater the drop the better. Property as an investment sector is now one of the higher risk lower reward options. I would like to buy in Blenheim but no way will I pay 07 prices....that would be dumb as.  There are clearly two groups of sellers down here. Those chasing a buyer when there are few to be had and the flat Earth types who believe in Santa.

Higher risk Lower reward? I was one of the unfortunates that bought NZ icon Telecom shares at $9.25; they are now worth about $2.15. Now thats what I call low reward!

................& just to make me feel good about the NZ property market ? My son in Hong Kong has just sold his tiny dog-box apartment for a gain of 208% - in 2.5 years!

Gradual decline is better for the economy but rapid decline is better for the first homeowners and those waiting in the wings to repurchase...like a lot of the posters on here....incl me!

Ireland is a good example of a rapid delining housing market.  An average person would have trouble raising a mortgage in such market - unless you have the cash then you are KING! 

Personally, it doesn't really effect me..  I saved up enough and only have a small amount left in our mortgage

the Banks and others are actually 'managing the market down well here in NZ'.

5% a year for the next  two years, maybe three plus inflation is where we are headed.

With section prices where they are, and the number of poorly built houses out there, people should build(builders are giving very good quotes at present)

If many choose to build prices will drop further

Yes in the BOP.

Here house prices got to an absurd level based entirely on speculation(that they would go up for ever) pre 2008

3 to 4 x the average wage is a rough as guide to what people can really afford so I fully expect at least another 5-10% drop in many places unless migrants start arriving by the plane load. With the pound where it is they will not be coming from the UK(traditionally where majority have come from)

 

JJ "house prices double, then stay relatively flat for 8 years or so before taking off again. Looking back over history this seems to be the norm."

There does seem to be some truth in that JJ, what is different this time is the unprecedented rise in total debt that has increased (almost) without interuption for forty years throughout the western world. There is no realistic way this can continue, even with interest rates at very low levels no one wants to add to their debt. So, unless there is a dramatic rise in income or some highly dangerous central bank action, I don't think the pattern will repeat this time. Sorry.

Hold on guys hold on, I'm in it for the REALLY long haul, and everyone knows that as time goes on property prices ALWAYS increase, I mean, they're not making anymore land are they! Guys you seriously need to be savvy and very discerning investors, as these are the only types of people that buy property, and if you choose to rent you're a second class citizen, because people who rent are poor didn't you know?

Oh you mean a really long haul as in the 300 year decline in value experienced in Europe post the Black Death.....well that's ok them muppet...buy all you can.

No I'm talking REALLY REALLY long haul, because if I buy a house now, in 1000 years time I'll be a TRILLIONAIRE, I'll be dead, but thats ok, my family will be trillionaires, no worries, all from buying a shack in papakura, its that easy!

By 3011 your "family" will speak fluent Mandarin and be setting off crackers in memory of the great Muppet.

If you guys want to have an intersting topic to discuss - why don't we repeat this aticle by replacing the key words "house and property" with "shares"

We don't talk about productive endeavours or investments here ....... Houses are  the discussion , 24 / 7  , get with the programme , or sit down quietly ....... Get a chair , man .

GBH .... great comment ... says it all !

Keewee's obession with residential property is crazy and that is why our productivity levels compared with the OECD are crap  ... cause they can't get off their asses and look at any other alternatives. Didn't they learn there is not such thing as a  "free lunch". ANY investment requires a sacrifice of time, research, learning, extra hours to be put in, talking to learned people etc etc.

But NO, not here in Aotearoa ..... where even now,  it's mortgage yourself to the hilt and "she'll be right" as those capital gains "just won't stop" .... and the banks are scared "sh*tless" of a decent drop in values, as it will stuff up their balance sheet.

So it's "carry on regardless" .... well here in Auckland anyway as  that seems to be the tone. I can not speak for the rest of NZ..... as so many on here do, because each market has its own story to tell and within each of those markets are "micromarkets" etc.

Anyway I am currently learning about share trading and buy and sell points and I'm currently running a very small share club which is returning 20% pa (NZ securities and silver)  JUST with "buy and hold" ... which I know is not really correct,  but as I said above, this is where the hard graft comes in and I can increase those already good returns by making myself more knowledgeable and wise.

So the grand plan is to increase my deposit for a property over the next year or so .... and only buy when I the prices actually start looking in positive territory again.

AND THAT COULD BE 5 YEARS AWAY ....... OR ????  WHO KNOWS !?!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Went to a presentation last year by Cameron Bagrie, ANZ.  He said watch to see if house prices keep gradually decreasing,  because if they do there  will be a good soft landing, if they don't then more chance down the line of a collapse. [That doesn't include the over supply situation in beach areas where prices will plummet/are plummeting]  Since 2007 there's been a gradual decline in prices overall in NZ, but not in Australia where prices kept going further and further up during 2007-2010.  NZ has pretty much got it right.

NZ Herald article Couple pay $9m for mansion... 2008 valuation $13.73m, gosh that equels 30% drop in value. Looks like Bernard is going to be on the money.

Nope ! ....... Bernard predicted house prices to fall 30 % in 2009 ........ they didn't .

Then he backed down a smidge , predicting house prices to drop 15 % in 2010 . Again , they didn't .

........... Now he spends his time arguing that the gradual house price falls , coupled with rising inflation , have proven him correct ........ He should be in politics !

Speak faster GBH .... you may convince yourself. 

Its only a question of time... 

Hey , I'm bearish on property too ........ And Hickey's argument that house prices are way above trend-lines and above reasonable valuations seems correct ....

...... But a 30 %  house price collapse within a single year ? ...... That was a gutsy call .

Actually, Bernard's away in a buddhist monastery north of auckland.. right now as we speak!

Rumoured sightings have confirmed that he's practising a new " housing mantra " for 2011 and has been losing even more weight as he survives on fern shoots and mung beans?

The reality is that there are a lot of houses on the market, yet amongst them all there are very few good houses for sale. The good houses are still selling well and gaining slowly in price.

Got a link for us ? ...... I'd like to see what constitutes a " good house " , as opposed to a " bad house " . ........ And I'm keen to see a property which has gained in price , going against the trend in real estate of falling house prices .

Cheers : GBH

I think there is one on Paratai Drive coming up for mortgagee sale soon...I understand it has some intellectual property rights as an added feature.

Christov : You're back ? ...... I thought you were down for the count . Good holiday ?

..... enlighten me , buddy , what's Walter on aboot ....... people selling houses in their under-pants ?

Hey , I'm off to Hong Kong tomorrow  , first trip there ..........  any places that are absolute must do / must see / shops / restaurants ?   Taking the rug-rat to Disneyland .

and a Happy New Year to you GBH..!! it has been the weather that has driven me back to the pooter.....I have enjoyed a glorious holiday in believe it or not the Auckland harbor and surrounding islands....fishing diving...and generally killing things and eating them......oh the joy...!

anyhoo I hope your little jaunt to Hong Kong goes well...don't eat the bugs..! or the snake soup..a staple...it tastes ok but er well you know...you don't eat bugs less you got to right..! thats what separates us from the poor peoples.

hope Disneyworld goes fantastically and do be patient untill you learn the softly softly shove your way in.

have a great one bucko and talk soon.

P.S. Gummy ...definitely do the cable car and the Buddah as to the food..to be honest most street cafe's have a pretty high standard .....they have to or people just move along to the next which is never more than a few  away.......talk to some local euro's for your more trendy restaurant /clubs...but ah you might need a baby sitter.

Here's a link Gummy...have a gork at the whole site. http://www.earthhomes.com/

Or this one, http://www.ecodesign.co.nz/

I have to say we don't really have good homes in NZ, or good urban design. Take a bulldozer to the lot and start again:)

Makes me laugh when I look at our overpriced housing when people have so much invested in something so bad.

Here is a simple rule that most of our houses violate.  Rooms should have natural light entering from at least two sides.

Could it be that bad design contributes to come of our social issues.

Mate I like how every house has about 200 extension cords draped across the place. One power point per room if you're lucky and some rooms have no power points. Talk about CHEAP ARSE MICKEY MOUSE CORNER CUTTING.

Or it could get worse and go the other way. I some parts of America the trades are protected to such a degree that power points are mandated at centres of 2m. So if you have a hallway, that is power points every two metres on boths sides!!

Wonderful how people and families are attached to their houses – not selling them like underpants – but regarded as homes.

hello Walter...Happy New year..!!!....by the way what happened to you on the 27th November..?.....The Beehive..? I ........waited...Walter....and there were a lot of steps to ascend before my revolutionary charge could have any real impact......i got puffed at the top and the security looked at me funny like ...so I went home................... ah what might have been had you been there to urge me forward......but still it's another year now and I....feel......vigorous. 

I had a brief chat with Olly who has been on holiday and he says that once again all these month to month  staictics cannot be trusted. All the bad areas ( lakesides, beach resorts, small towns, mortgagee sales etc ) are muddled in with  the areas that are doing very well thank you very much.

The part that really matters in the report is:

" The median house price also dropped to $352,000 last month from $360,000 the previous month but was still higher than the median house price in July, August and October."

As Olly has repeatedly said, it's the trend that counts from one year to the next. There is no getting away from the fact that is year will still be difficult for many, but crash?

No chance.

Um, but you ARE Olly. Your own posting history here proves that.

Either it's that, or you have merely claimed to be Olly in the past (as can be seen when we read your old posts) when in fact you weren't him.

Whatever the case you're a bloody liar and have no credibility whatsoever.

No he's not I am Olly....!

......your not Olly.....I am!

Olly's on holiday in Jurassic Park where all the dinosaurs go over summer !!!

NEWS FLASH  -  "Housing market slow over Xmas period."

Are you serious?????

SK is a real estate industry drone. Property spruiking and shilling is all he has left.

Long may the decline continue. I need to upgrade my current abode to another property so even I lose value on my current place I'll be better off in the long run with less debt.

 

 

 

That is probably the most intelligent comment made on real estate that  i've seen on here for a long time....bite the bullet and move on...the numbers are now different but the debt ratio is LESS !!

 

House prices up, house prices down, house prices go around and around and around............

The obsession with this subject in NZ is nauseating! It's pathetic., myopic and boring as hell. Life is SO short so go out and GET ONE! Salivating over bricks and mortar that really are nothing more than prisons run by your bank is so small minded.  The media in this country feed you all the corporate and government  shit and you all eat it up like mums best gravy. Free yourselves from the bubble of conformity. Teach your children REAL values!

Well put, I love it.

 

 

We're just back from hols. up north of Auckland, and on handing the keys back to rental agent, he commented "Enjoy your break? Well the owners are looking at selling up, now that the Christmas season is finished" I asked what the price was. "Well, they had it on at $550,000 last year and didn't get a bite, So I'd reckon somewhere in the four hundreds would get it". The wife likes it, "It would be good for the kids " etc. So she asked me to make an offer. I did. ( there's masses on the market up there!) ...at $250,000, which embarressed the hell out of her! But the agent didn't miss a step " I'll let you know" he said. I'm getting a bit worried that I might get called ! I'll let you know.

Yes, please keep us posted Number 6.

Your number may be called Number 6, property in the seaside areas in Northland and Coromandel are in huge over-supply, better get your quarter pack ready.

The state of this market means a win-win situation for many of us.

My wife is keen to get a beach place, but I keep telling her that the longer we wait, the cheaper they become, and eventually we may well end up with a nice bach that cost us almost nothing.

On the other hand, If I (and the fundamentals) are wrong, then prices will increase and we'll forget about wasting money on some overpriced borer-riddled crate by the ocean.

(BTW, I'm not anti-beach: I'm anti-wasting money.) :-D

Then don't waste money getting a holiday home then Marlarkey (unless money is no object), that's as bad as puring most of one's capital into your house.  Much better to buy a property that gives you a return on your money, having a pasive income stream is the way to go.

Nah, we have money, but why waste any of it by paying too much now, when odds are that prices will fall?

Yep and word is the aussie market is set for a plunge...thanks to the floods....not a hope in hell their property collapse won't cross the ditch. We could be looking at a fat side of a 10% dive this year plus the 4% plus debasement of the dollar.  

maybe

 

But with thousands of home underwater and residental areas completely wiped out by the flooding, do you not think that their will be a shortage of homes?

That said I could see a situation where no one will buy in flood prone areas again, but if they dont sell you'll never see the drop and if you did it would be localised.

Of course there are other factors, but the floods in my view wont be the kicker

This should be good news that everyone should celebrate.  A necessity cost comes down.

 

I really don't care if' XBOX Grand theft auto 5' goes up in price, but if milk, petrol and shelter costs go up then I'm making a garden and taking up arms.   Home ownership builds communities - yeah right.

Australian price increases are  way ahead of NZ, when our prices stopped going up after 2007 and have come back quite nicely (not counting the coastal sections and holiday home situation which is a bit of a disaster), Australian prices continued to climb in 2008, again more in 2009, again more in 2010.  They will have to come back quite a lot to correlate with NZ, that's why NZ is better positioned now than in Australia. As Bagrie indicated, a good easing over a few years will prove to be better than pressure building up and up for a collapse.

NZ is just mad - Aus insane. Aus is a bubble just waiting to burst. That is what will tip NZ prices down further again, the fallout from the Aus nuclear explosion of a bubble bursting.

The Unconventional Economist does a great job of pulling "The Real Estate Economists"

(ie, the bank economists) to shreds in his latest piece

Bank economists - Independant and objective: Yeah Right!!!

Hugh - look forward to this year's report :)

 

 

Not sure why a collapse in Australian property would automatically affect NZ, if fundamentals in NZ continued as is (commodity export returns,i interest rates, amount of new sock being built, employment rate, RWC  etc), or are you saying that the Banks would put up rates in NZ to compensate for any such situation in Australia?

Hugh,

I know I have cast dispersions upon your reference to Houston as a model of urban planning, and I still have my doubts.

But with the knowledge of design and planning I do hold I would think that if the hands off approach is maintained, then a better city will eventually result. Trouble is it may take a couple of hundred years until the embodied value in the existing housing stock diminishes to a point where it is worth pulling them down.

The trouble for Houston is people probably don't have much good design to model their ideas from. The patterns have been lost and need to be rebuilt.

See people instinctively know what they want and so without interference or restrictions they will eventually build what they want.

Just as long as professionals like property developers and architects don't replace the planners in telling them what they want eh?

 

Hugh,

Someone the other day made the point we don't have a housing market in NZ as such but a number of differing markets from area to area and within cities.  Parts of Auckland would come up as 'overvalued ' on the Dem Survey, but other parts not so much, and those on well above average incomes who buy into more sought after suburbs may find their income to house costs not so prohibitive; also remember the bottom third who traditionally don't buy property won't struggle to pay for something they don't do anyway- not saying that is a good or bad thing just saying that has been the reality for a long time. Iit might be more meaningful to equate house prices to the inome level of the  section of society that makes property purchases??

 

That is a n interesting point, Me.  Wonder if the Dem Survey is that valid even if it is claimed to be 'the gold standard' of all surveys?

We haven't been told who claimed it was 'the gold standard", but I bet their name was Wendell or something like that.

Any 'survey' that comes to the conclusion that NY is a less dense city than Auckland, or Tokyo is only 2x the density of Auckland is beyond dubious.

I still don't understand why Mr P always trots out Texas cities as prime examples of urban growth as they are cheap to buy in and fast growing (therefore 'desirable') when there are other even cheaper and much faster growing cities out there he could prove his point with - Lagos, Mogadishu etc. etc.

Well I think that a drop in house prices is good for the economy overall. Less money being spent on mortgages means more more going into the rest of the economy. Also means that I one day will be able to afford a house. Nothing flash just an average house in a safe area.

That's for sure DC but the banks are out to use the poodle media to kill off this wonderful property deflation trend...they hate it when we pay off debt and stop borrowing...and even more when values fall...the balance sheets are turning blood red.

Every avenue of media can expect pressure from the ticket clippers to push the message that peasants must borrow more..that greater debt is the road to recovery...harhaaaaaaaaahaha

Yep - totally agree Wolly, banks seemed to have screwed over a bunch of my friends who were sucked into taking on more mortgage when they bought property in the 2003-2007 fun times. Now they are on the edge of negative equity...  want to start families... cost of living has gone up.... usual boom / bust stories I guess.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4556543/Investment-properties-a-st...

Hello,

I've been a reader of Interest.co for a while now but have only recently signed up to post comments. While I know how to stick to my knitting, which is not currently owning property having sold up (out?) last year, I do get concerned that articles like the above are getting mainstream media coverage.

Cheerio,

Miss Astrid

 

 

 

Super smart guy , that Furlong . Encourage youngsters to get involved as investors , prior to becoming consumers . Excellent strategy . ....... My preference is to see the youth enter productive business endeavours ...... But failing that , becoming a landlord is a good step .........

....... ummmmmm , Miss Astrid .......... German are you ? ............ ahhhhhhh , what are you wearing when you blog ? ........... heeeeeee , hee tee hee !

Just ignore Gummy Miss Astrid, his bum is in a hammock and his mind is on crumpet...welcome to the site...you're a welcome change to shorts muzza and rob...

.......... rob muzza shorts ? ......... Now there's an image I don't want ingrained upon my mind !

They are the new fashion statement Gummy...surely you wear a pair...all the rage in the Beehive and I'm told Bolly has been seen some too.

What a big yarn, through us a decent hunk of meat to chew on and snarl over.

I think the theory is wrong regarding the floods in Australia causing a house price slump.

1) There will be huge pressure on people to relocate and rent in unaffected areas.
2) There will be people who have homes written off who will buy or build again elsewhere.
3) Areas that didn't flood this time around will become more sought after and prices in those areas will skyrocket..
4) Once people realise that this is a 1 in 100 year occurence then they will head back to the affected areas simply due to the convenience, in the case of Brisbane, of living close to the centre.
5) Cost of building will increase due to the pressure on the construction industry.
6) New builds in other areas will increase in price due to the labour force being taken up by those who move into the repair work.

This is very similar to Christchurch where homes are still selling, pressure has gone on rents as owners and tenants have had to move to only a small selection of undamaged homes that are available to rent. Homes that survived the quake will be sought after, those in liquification areas will be written off and pressure on other areas will come from those that lived in those areas relocating to other parts of the city.

 

 

 

 

 

Put yourself into the shoes of one of the effected people.

Your standing in the drying mud; wondering if/when your job is going to come back on line; wondering how long it will take for the insurance company to get to your claim ( that's if you even have flood insurance, after the '74 flood! Once in a hundred years?...yeah, right); calculating that your equity in your home, probably your lifes savings, has vanished with the receding waters; and you have  entrenched borrowings from trying to afford that house in the first place, and on-going living costs.

Now ask yourself. "How do I go out and get those unaffaected property prices sky-rocketing, with what I have left?"

People, individually, are going to have less to re-build their lives with - not more. The estimate is that A$30 billion will be wiped off the nations accounts as a result of this disaster. That's lower property prices, not higher.

 

We have put you down to pay the pre flood price on several of many hundreds of Brisbane riverside properties nzinvestor....hey where'd he go?...jeez look at that bugger run...come back you sod...the deals are done....

Take Wolly with a grain of salt Miss Astrid, he's got little better to do than going around in his rob muzza shorts, quite a fahion brand I might add.  Wolly's probably resharpening his axe this afternon as he keeps grinding it into this and that, especially those who have quite a bit of property and their banker mates. His favourite word is ponzi by the way, but don't for goodness sake mention it, he gets all emotional.

Take notice of Gummy Bear Hero though, as he has life well and truely sussed.

And NZ Investor, you should get off this site, you are too rational.

Yes, don't listen to anyone who says things I don't agree with. Only listen to those who I believe agree with me.

Haha - so insightful, very good.

jeez, you guys are sluts for a bit of poontang..i knew if i logged in under one of my many aliases ..in this case...miss astrid , i'd suck you all into revealing yourselves as the flakey reptiles that you all are...except wolly..cos he's a dinosaur..

A Wally saw us Rob...we been around for tens of millions of years...note: not Wally sore arse ok.

muzza that is.

Hello Wolly, Mr Gummy and Muzza,

Thank you for your warm welcome. Rob of the North, I am not your alias.

Here's another mainstream media link that reiterates now is a good time to own property.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4560372/A-good-time-to-own-a-house

Personally, I listen to the nannies picking up children from school. Nannies as in paid care-givers like Mary Poppins. I sold property about 2 years after nannies were discussing residential property investment while they waited for the children. Prior to end of term, nannies were talking about beach houses.

Cheerio,

Miss Astrid

 

Good to have someone else on this blog with their eyes open Astrid.

Pretty sickening to read some of the stuff being peddled about. Sickening also that some people believe it. I know people that are highly likely to lose their house going forward despite warnings to get out. People clinging to hope despite all the warning signs.

This is one of the few places where you can get the new unadulterated. Actually I might have to change that term with GBH around.

What is really interesting to me is the amount of interest that housing threads generate. To me it seems a good sign of the way housing is over represented as an asset or investment. 

Dear miss Astrid

Lots of nannies about now - they are ex real estate agents.  please don't listen to them any longer.

Personally, they all get on my goat !

Miss Astrid (are you a school teacher or what?), your comment about the nannnies reminds me of the story of Joe Kennedy, who one day in 1929, heard the shoe-shine guys discussing the stock market, and saw that as a signal to cash up... which he did and then in 1930's went on a big property buying spree picking up fire-side sales.

you guys are tragic!!!

miss astrid is a TROLL foll -de -roll and she'll eat you for supper...suckers!!

silly old goats...

Did ya not hear what she said Rob...she's not your Alee arse...wise lady!

Hey cut the 'old' bit out for me, I'm many years away from that magical, mystery tour that evidently many look forward to at 65 years

you're starting to sound like a "bottom-feeder" there Wally..i'm getting worried about you , you old fudge-packer..have another muscatel, bro...!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4556543/Investment-properties-a-stepping-stone

 

the tax laws in Aus favour investors and so far their bubble keeps on trucking along.

The guy goes on to state that he can rent cheaper, but then has investment properties which which means he is subsidising people's rent, but gaining the loss back in tax breaks.

Also, this theory and reasoning is part of the problem

"If you leave A$45,000 in the bank and you’re only earning 5 per cent, then you earn A$2250 a year and you have to pay tax on that at the end of the day. Whereas if I use that A$45,000 on a 10 per cent deposit on a A$450,000 property, let’s say it grows at 6 per cent, then you’re growing your net worth by A$27,000 a year not A$2000 a year."  

 

Surely at some point the momey is going to run out?

No, because this time it's different.

And property is magical.

damage : Miss Astrid ( ooh la la ) pinned up this item for us yesterday .

And a brilliant wee scheme is it providing that the government doesn't change the rules , and/or  that the leverage doesn't work the wrong way ( a falling market ) and wipe you out ............. But that only happens in America , and in movies , couldn't possibly happen here ..............

yes I did see that and I was meant to quote her in reply, but failed.

I've been abroad for a number of years, what is the story with the LAQC now?

et tu, gummy?

falling for the charms of the troll doll..all hope is fading...

What about " damage " , Rob . .............. He's been a broad for a couple of years ........... Sashaying down the strip in Phuket ? ........... C'mon Robbie , take a walk on the wild side .

Damage says Damage is..sashaying down Bangla or Wanking St in that cesspool a.k.a Pattaya....better you take him under you wing and show him to Angel City or Makati, naughty Gumbo!

Wan Chai , HK Island today Rob . Not alotta sashaying ........... But plenty of authentic restaurants ........... Hope that you're not off your noodle  !

are you trying to curry favour or just fishing for info on the steak in your future?

The chicken tikka masala at Ebeneezer's Kebabs & Pizzeria ( Ngong Ping ) was superb . The girls had a brilliant pizza . But don't bother with the coffee !

at your age you've got to be careful with a dodgy tikka?

Cross dresser ha?

 

The monthly REINZ datai s consistent with other numbers showing the NZ housing market in a holding pattern with a mild indication of improving sales and prices flat.

In December there were 4,397 dwelling sales reported to REINZ – with a downward bias of uncertain but probably small magnitude as REINZ membership is no longer compulsory for real estate agents.

These sales were down11.3% from a year ago which is the smallest annual rate of decline since March and well back from a 36%annual decline recorded in October.

For 2010 all up sales were down 19% from 2009 and practically the same as 2008 activity with 56,303 sales versus 56,071 back then.

 

That 2008 total was the lowest calendar year number of sales since records began in 1988. On average over the past ten years sales have been 89,000 per annum so 2010 was 37%below average.

Hey you're getting too factual Rob, get a bit of emotion into it with some choice adjectives, study Wolly's technique

Actually , muzza, i was trying to lead by example to try and rein in Wolly's increasingly dribbling raves...don't think it's working though ?!

Always live in hope Rob, but probably not likely, have to admit

I would if real estate agents actually put prices on property that they have listed for sale, they might get more sales, ie have a fixed price, rather than go to auction.

Going to auction probably puts alot of people off, simply by its nature that you never know what you'll end up paying and therefore cant plan for it.

Damage the inside story I am getting is that the vendors out there have unrealistic prices regarding their houses, in what is a very uncertain market. An auction is the best way to test the market, and then the vendor has no illusions as to what their property is worth, at least if the agents have done their work in getting buyers to the auction.

A couple of very recent example is one Rodney rural property that had been on with one agent for 12 months at 950K. Settled at auction after a hell of a lot of arm bending for 670K.

But same agency put up a heap of Auckland Houses for Auction before Christmas, all but a few were passed in. In fact all but one of those that sold were CBD apartments.

A dirty trick of agents is of course to try in push buyers above their comfort zone, hence they withhold the price. I must admit I hate that practice and simply wouldn't bother with the property if they don't put a price on.

But it is such a difficult market, with so few buyers, that prices are left off simply because the agents don't know what the property will get. Of course a decrease in volume gives less to reference to for pricing purposes.

Uncertainty is the name of the game, and I think the trend is set to continue until the outcome of the GFC gives a clear indication of direction one way or the other. 

That's ridiculous.

Everyone knows you cannot lose with property.

Prices always go up and never down.

Houses are the only investment worth having

Anything else is dead money.

Don't be a loser tenant your whole life.

Do you want to be scorned and laughed at forever?

Finance is easy to get and your capital gains will cover it.

So get out there and invest in property.

God's not making any more land and there is a severe housing shortage.

Wealthy immigrants are snapping up everything available.

So you better get in quick, before it's too late.

You can't go wrong with property.

Think you are a bit harsh on being a tenant, someone has to do it.

My brother rents. He makes around $140k p/a and has no debts. He works for a power company and lives in a rural spot. The house he and his wife rent is very nice and on a huge block. His wife also works for the power company and earns a great salary. Their rent is $200 p/w and has been since 2005. They don't spend much on anything and he's always been like that, never interested in toys and stuff, so they have a lot of money saved. Their options are almost limitless.

A friend of mine earns less than half what my brother does. He lives in Wellington in the house he and his partner bought in 2006. She's unemployed after being made redundant at the end of 2009, although she's thinking about doing a Polytech course this year. Their mortgage payments are enormous and they are struggling. Mostly that's because they bought a rental in 2007. It was empty until 2009 while they renovated it. Twice. (They didn't like how it turned out the first time.) They have no savings, and mega debt.

Who would you rather be?

Well done your brother . He and his partner have an enviable lifestyle . And options aplenty .......

......... Rent is not " dead money " as many real estate agents spout .

Renting gives you choices to do other things with your money , productive things , rather than be a slave to some bricks & mortar , and to a bank .

Jeepers GBH life is not just about having lots of money. You need to have some fun and his brother sounds like he has no fun at all. Life is about balance.  Some saving, some spending.

My brother and his wife have tons of fun. They just don't need to spend a lot of money to do so. Some people equate spending and material possessions with "living life", but he doesn't. We have slightly different views on that because I'm happy to spend a little bit more than I probably should to have fun and own nice things, but the point is we BOTH have lots of fun. He has a lot more money tucked away than I do and he doesn't have my debt (which is not huge but it's still debt). He also doesn't own the nice things I get enjoyment from owning. But he is still as happy as I am at least and he definitely sleeps better. The good news is that if I ever get in the s***, I'm running straight to my bro to bail me out! LOL!

PS - In case I make it sound like they sit inside wrapped in blankets and huddled around a single candle, in 2010 they travelled the Mediterranean coastline from Spain to Morocco. It was a 'budget' trip, not a luxury cruise, but they certainly seemed to have enjoyed every moment of it and came back with some awesome tales --- and the photos and video to prove them.

So true ! Life is about having experiences ....... it's not a balance sheet . But , being renters and being canny with their spare dosh , The Man's brother & lady are having a ball . Cashed up . Options galore ......

....... And for wot it's worth , the Gummster is enjoying his first visit to Hong Kong , snug with a bottle of Luk Yung Tai Pao Wine ........... After a hectic day up on " The Peak " , and down in Kowloon ( Lady's Market ) .........

.... And yet , as much as we want to live in the moment ........... we need to prepare for tomorrow ........ unlike Bernie and the Chicken-Little band of Gloomsterisers , I reckon that tomorrow will come ....... and somehow , we'll muddle through .............

The couple with the debt.Sounds like they have at least had a go. Your brother and his wife sound pretty boring. What is the point of all that money if you are just looking at it. You need a balance between spending and saving. 

The couple with the debt.Sounds like they have at least had a go. Your brother and his wife sound pretty boring. What is the point of all that money if you are just looking at it. You need a balance between spending and saving. 

And to think some people still wonder why NZ is going broke.

We are consumers and not citizens!

Seems to me they both have things out of kilter