By Bernard Hickey
Realestate.co.nz has reported new housing listings fell nationally to a record low 8,300 in January and were down 19% from a year ago as the average asking price fell 2% in the month to NZ$406,525.
CEO Alistair Helm said sellers may be being overly cautious as there was evidence suggesting new buyer interest was significantly higher now that it had been for a long time.
“Inventory – which saw its 12-month peak last November at 53.2 weeks – has now fallen to 47.9 weeks. The average asking price has also fallen sharply, down $10,000 in January to $406,525. Basically, the glut of unsold houses has eased even further, and prices are more realistic,” Helm said.
He pointed out that 2 million unique browsers had looked at property websites in New Zealand, up 24% on the same month a year ago, with property information website Zoodle seeing traffic rise 70%.
“Buyers are clearly on the hunt for interesting new properties and looking for a good deal,” he said, adding that the current asking prices was 5.6% below the peak of the market in October 2007.
“It’s one of those rare times were the selling opportunity can be well matched to a good buying potential."
“If the number of new listings drops any further it will be somewhat troubling for the market,” he says; “However, the level of interest in new properties should be a signal to potential vendors that now is the time to list. Buyers are out there, and they are keenly looking for good new properties."
Sales volumes have picked up slightly through November and December, as have recent mortgage approvals figures.
However Housing credit fell in January for the first time on record as heavily indebted households work hard to repay debt and avoid taking on new debt.
See the full monthly report attached here or see it hosted on unconditional.co.nz.
Housing inventory
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102 Comments
Ive got the dosh! Am I looking? NO, not on your life. They are STILL just so ridiculously priced compared to actual incomes and with the ever NEW cost of living and expenses that is far from over it's a mental idea to want to own
Rent people. It's SO liberating and if you get an A-hole landlord (my advice is to rent privately then everyone knows who they are dealing with) just move on! They hate having to find new tenants. Some want people to just pay pay pay while asking for nothing ever (to get fixed or improved) while the house falls down around you and they claim depreciation
Please , do me a favor ..." Vendors are being overly cautious"... what nonsense.
After a decade long bull run , Its no longer a vendors market , the dynamic has shifted, vendors are no longer in charge .
The truth is that vendors have had a reality check , and now know that their houses are no longer a one -way speculative bet , and are simply staying put .
There are either no offers or cheeky offers coming in from buyers , and properties in areas like the North Shore are selling under their Rateable Value (GV) .
The Banks are still being sticky about you putting your hands in your pocket for a deposit , removing scores of potential buyers who simply dont have any savings .
Young people are going to work in Oz , not buying into Godzone, and migrants are no longer "exchange rate " wealthy , with their currencies having been battered over the past two years by the GFC.
Boatman, you must have been out sailing because for the past decade and then listening to this lot on interest.co.nz to fill in the gaps.
The bull market started early 2002 to late 2003 depending where you were in the country, it ended abruptly in late 2007 - that's 4 to 5 years out of 10 - certainly no decade long party!
That's just one reason why drifting through the doldrums won't necessarily led to storms and whirlpools, perhaps just a strong tailwind is on the way?
Chris J .. Point taken , you are right about the bull market , on investigation , it seems prices only really started to rocket in 2002 when NZ interest rates came down after the Asian Banking Crisis .
I also understand that the market will recover in due course, becuase thats how markets work, and property is still a good investment for the long run .
I was on Terra Firma at the time and struggling to pay off our first modest house. I didnt even own a yacht then , just a small Kayak
Sorry to be pedantic but the Asian crisis started late 1997, NZ mortgage rates actually went over 11% in 1998 until Brash eased the MCI.
Although interest rates did fall sharply due to the Asian crisis, they rose again thanks to the tech bubble. It wasn't till 9/11 and the slashing of interest rates to counter the dotcom bust that house prices took off.
I remember having an on-site auction of a property in Sydney a few decades ago, and was please at the turn-out .Then, after a closer look, I realised that most of the 'bidders' were actually my neighbours, who wanted to know what the market level was, as they were sellers as well! (PS: "passed in on vendors , and the only, bid!")
"He pointed out that 2 million unique browsers had looked at property websites in New Zealand, up 24% on the same month a year ago, with property information website Zoodle seeing traffic rise 70%."
Zoodle was launched in January 2009, it has been growing steadily over the 2 year period by around 4,000 to 5,000 unique browsers per month with no marketing support.
In the final quarter of 2010 it was receiving aorund 57,000 monthly unique browsers. In January it recieved 78,545. This leap is significant and was not attributable to any marketing. The QV site with which Zoodle competes was up 16% from December to January to 65,551 whilst Zoodle rose 30%.
Yes there is a growing demand from more and more people searching online, but this spike in usage I would judge significant if only as a pointer to research interest.
I believe that Zoodle has optimised its search engine ratings in the last 12 months. I have been to the site twice in the last month due to it appearing in searches I have done after previously never visiting the site. I believe the surge in visitors is due to this no increased interest in property.
The data for realestate.co.nz is consistent. Our customer base is purely licensed real estate agents. We have maintained between 94% to 95% of agents as full subscribers for over 4 years now which provides robustness to the data.
Real estate agentsdo not list exclusively on one site, they appreciate the value of online. Private sales are only available on Trade me.
Realestate.co.nz competes very succesfully with Trade me and enjoy the challenge of such a competitor. With a customer base of 95% of all agents the site is of great value to buyers and sellers as justified by the 435,000 unique browsers visiting the site in January up 30% from December - by comparison Trade me Property viewings were up 27%.
Building permits down, Listings down. Under the rule of supply and demand what will happen to prices? In Auckland they are going up and I expect them to continue doing so. My daughter has been looking for a house and even I have been amazed at some of the prices good properties have been achieving. I just hope they haven’t missed the boat as they sold their house out of Auckland some time ago and have been renting. This is often a fatal mistake to make.
Don't worry, according to the majority of posters on this site, your daughter will be able to buy an average Auckland house house for 3x the annual income (say about $200k) any time now. Supposedly supply and demand are meaningless and it all comes down to what the average person can afford (fundamentals I'm told) - we'll see...
I do note though that supply in west Auckland looks pretty good at the moment so I wouldn't be surprised if house prices dropped a bit there any time soon. Probably the same with South Auckland.
What I want to know, Jimbo, is 'how come Gav's daughter has been out the market for some time ' if Gav's been telling everyone that prices won't fall? ( She's smarter than her old Pa, comes to mind) And I am sure his daughter is suprised at some of the prices she's seeing. How low they are, would be my guess! And if she's not putting in that 'low ball' offer, how does she expect to luck in on that $2m RV bargain that the bank has to sell for $1m, or whatever it can get?
Demand is only relevant in so far as it is realisable demand. Plenty of people want houses but can't afford them. What is critical is the balance between houses for sale on the market and the realisable demand for them.
The supply / Demand equation is not simplistic. If prices were 100% determined by the ratio of house quantum versus population then prices would not have dropped in the last 3 years, as we have been told for all that period that there is a housing shortage. If supply /demand was the sole determinant, then based on that "shortage" prices would have gone up.
There is a shortage in Central Auckland and prices have gone up. As for the rest of the country, I'm not sure there is a shortage - yet... But with no one building anything, surely a shortage is just around the corner. Its not like NZ has plenty of empty houses sitting around like they do in the states.
Well many of the bank economists and spruikers have been saying we have a housing shortage all over Auckland, and in NZ in general
That supposed "shortage" (which I am skeptical of) hasn't stopped price falls in many places
Central Auckland is clearly unique, and is to a degree somewhat immune from wider influences. There will always be a certain small proportion of individuals (doctors, lawyers, surgeons, CEOs) etc. who will be able to pay a premium for the elite inner suburban property
Correction, not all bank economists have said any such thing. I have been to 2 meetings in oast 2-3 years with Cameron Bagrie (ANZ) as the keynote speaker. He said there is a significant over-supply of coastal beach properties and sections, elsewhere a slight over-supply, but not in Auckland or Christchurch (this was pre-earthquake). However with the decline in building, the supply [ie outside of the coastal beach areas] is going to be a shortage in time- probably hitting that soon. So in effect an over-supply where people don't want to live and work, and a tightening of supply where they do want to live and work.
He makes more sense than most commentators on this site, but I appreciate most opinionated bloggers think they know best.
So all the beach places people have, are going to loose value then? Who do you think 'owns' them? Probably Auckland etc. owners/speculators, who having gambled on the capital gains 'up the coast,' now have ever diminishing disposable wealth left to buy in ....Auckland! It doesn't really matter where the property value decreases; someone owns it, and that effect spreads through all proprety markets eventually - one way or another.
Thanks to those responsible for discourses of save, save and... save, oh and yeah and those naughty naughty property developers... shame on you - you must stop - we are going to make it untenable for you to continue via tax reform.
We have now tightened our belts so tight and unnaturally screwed with taxes so that we have helped set up the perfect conditions for a property boom. This lack of building consents doesn't mean we are saving more or that property investment is dead. The mantra of economics is not supply and demand, its 'be careful what you ask for'.
The "Great Mexican Stand Off" continues .....
Vendors are still living in lala land and if they really don't have to sell, they just won't list.
I still can't understand why these vendors think they are "immune" from all the financial upheaval of the past 4 years and that their "asset" is always going to hold its price plus, don't forget sheeple.... unlimited capital gains :)
I actually sometimes wonder about the intellect of the above group ... perhaps it is all they know ? Ignorance is bliss.......
Meanwhile, buyers are quite rightly refusing to pay the current listed prices ..... and speaking for the Auckland market, who would want to pay those asking prices for a leaky, damp, poorly built dump, that needs at least a 6 figure sum to bring it up to scratch.
Goodonya property spruikers, keep the BS coming .... I don't believe a word of it.
Life has taught me that a house is a place to live in , you seldom make money by renting out a residential property, except when you are given a tax break .
The hard reality is that almost all ( maybe 95%) of Kiwi's are tenants.
Their landlord is either the Bank , a highly indebted property investor, or Housing New Zealand.
The figures you quote would indicate life has taught you some strange things.
About half of all houses in NZ are mortgage free, and those who have a mortgage the average amount is about $70,000, and that includes owner occupied and investment properties.
There is a lot of exaggeration bandied about on blogs like this about the financially precarious situation of ''most'' owners, quite at variance to the situation for a huge majority.
Muzza , either you are confused or I am
I am 50 years old , and my home is mortgage free, and I dont know of a single person who I know socially, that has zero mortgage . Friends , family, children , nieces and nephews, all are in hock to a bank .... two are Doctors, one is a vet , one an Engineer, two are Chartered Acountants , one Lawyer, two teachers, two are IT whizzkids and three in Business .....all have mortgage debt .
I read on the RBNZ website about the level of Mortgage indebtedness in NZ , and there is nowhere near 50% of households with zero mortgages, as you suggest .
Lets take Auckland as an example
In Auckland , nearly 1/3 rd of all residents dont own the place they live in which leaves 2/3 or 66% of Auckland residents owning their houses .
You say Half of NZ houses dont have mortgages, so I assume that extends to Auckland
Are you suggesting that only 16 % of Auckland's population has a mortgage ?
I think not , its possibly closer to 80 to 90 % of homeowners in Auckland
Boatman, don't always beleve what you think. Statistics NZ tells us 50% own their house without mortgage, and yes that includes Auckland because it is in NZ. You need to get a better circle of friends, if I was one you'd have someone who doesn't have mortgages on most of his properties( last one to be fully paid by mid-2012), and yes,I've reached 50 yrs as well .
And I'd venture that if whatever percentage of people it is that have no mortgage sold their home and rented, they'd be financially better off. There is a cost to owning your own home, outright, and it's the difference between alternative application of funds and the cost of rental accommodation. That's why equity in the home should be taxed, like any other savings pool. The compensation being the much lower rates of income taxation, which would encourage productive endeavours.
Muzza , you seem to suggest there is no debt problem in NZ
Maybe you can explain why New Zealand has a staggering $ 318 000 000 000( billion) in private debt , and who has borrowed so much ?
This debt owed by NZers is more than Ireland , Greece or Portugal and equites to 85% of our GDP
Private debt for every man , woman and child in New Zealand is around two years the average wage ( not minimum wage)
OR
$ 419 000 FOR EACH TAXPAYER in New Zeland
Muzza raises an intriguing point. Only half the property owners have a loan (that's a verified fact) and many house owners don't owe a great amount. Obviously Boatman you and Muzza don't owe much, if anything, and I don't either, nor does Wolly by all accounts .And BH won't either According to the Banks a large number of Kiwis are very responsible 'freeloaders' with their use of credit cards. So there must be a sector of fricken spendthrifts and presumably busines, industrial and farm loans must be quite substantial.
Thought the word ponzi had been put to rest, but here it crops up again. Good on you mate.
How the hell can you put the situation of NZ and Australia as one and the same as NZ has been undergoing a soft landing since 2007, whereas the market in Australia just kept going up and up right through 2007-10.
now that's funny :) though from memory didn't Labour buy 100 odd LAV's -about 80 more than we need, and far more than the army has crews for?
those LAV's are cool though, far more suitable for tearing through crowds of protestors than tanks.
problem with revolutions though is who do you put in charge? the current iranian set-up is due to a popular revolution, as was soviet russia.
Phil goofed and paid $NZ 6 million for each of those ! ........ $ 600 million ,,,,,, and the army didn't ask for them all . As minister of defence , Goofy decided he knew best , and that our army deserved the best . Not those $ 600 000 models from eastern Europe , that were offered to us ...
..... No siree , when you're spending tax-payers munny , spend up large ...... As the finance monster later demonstrated when he paid well over the odds to get our train-set back , a " premium asset " ...... a Toll we must all bear , now ...... Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !
The LAVs were 10 times the cost each , of a smaller number of similar vehicles offered to him , as minister of defense ........... Rather than save a bucket load of munny , and employ NZ engineers to tweak the cheaper ones , Goofy went for the expensive option ....... And when they arrived , the majority needed work anyway , and the bemused NZ Army didn't have a clue what to do with them all ....... They hadn't asked for so many , and Goofy wasn't listening to their advice , he knew best ..............
....... How quickly we forget !
I didn't get all my accusations correct, Les , but I'm not the prat who wasted $NZ 650 million on 105 Canadian LAV's , none of which can fit inside a Hercules for transportation ! .......
....... Enjoy this , and remember , these idiots want you to vote them back into power , later this year !
www.labourscandals.blogspot.com/2005/02/nz-army-lav-iiis.html
Cheers : Rogie .
What about that little cracker of a speech Finance Minister Dr. Michael Cullen gave to the Mathematics in Industry Study Group ( 18 / 02 / 2005 ) :
...... " One thing that has to go is the cherished myth of the amateur , the individual who retreats to the gardenshed , constructs an unlikely piece of sophisticated equipment and produces something world beating ...........It is time to put this little romance to bed ..........Innovation is not an art . It is a set of disciplines that can be learned , practised and taught ..... "
Richard Pearce / John Britten / Alan Gibbs / Lucy Moore / Alan Croad / Bill Gallagher / William Hamilton .......... all consigned to be just figments of romance .....
..... thankyou Sir Michael , for re-writing NZ industrial history for us all .
I gave Cullen up when this wee interchange happened:
http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/cullen01.htm
A lot of wasted lead-time since....
Several economists today saying unemployment will rise to 6.8% this quarter.
Of course, some of us last year on this website denounced the bank economists' predictions of sub 6% unemployment for early this year, basedon what what we were seeing "on the ground" in our jobs .
A flock of kiws will be crossing the ditch again too, especially with the massive Aussie job expo coming up in Auckland
Things don't bode well for property
".... new housing listings fell ...19% from a year ago ... good buying potential " , but "..If the number of new listings drops any further it will be somewhat troubling for the market.."
So listings are down - That's good for vendors ! But if they go lower - That's bad?
Bad for buyers? How so? Some huge percentage of 'buyers' are actually sellers of property as well. In boom times, they can, and do, buy before they sell. That makes the system spin. But in down times; now, they won't buy before they sell as (1) they're scared of being caught with another property if the market falls further and (2) the banks have that same fear and don't want to weight their lending book further towards property.
So the sellers don't become buyers, first. Inventory, current and deferred, builds up, and up and up... That's lower prices as the sellers eventually accept reality and sell to whomever they can, to get on with the business of buying themselves, later on.
Simple NA: Less choice plus more competition means higher prices. BTW I'd consider a "buyer" anyone upsizing or buying for the first time, they'd all be worse off in an upward move (which although it's not here yet and may be some time away will certainly be the next move in the cycle).
Competition is resultant of demand, Chris_J ; and demand is borne of the capacity to pay, not the just the desire to own. Without the ability to borrow, the buyers of property, however you term them, will not - can not - buy until they have sold what they have, or saved what they need. Real demand for New Zealand property is therefore vanishing before our eyes.
to say lower listings is good for vendors is a tad simplistic. Its actually partly good and partly bad
It is likely listings are lower because potential vendors realise buyer demand is weak. So lower listings at least in part is a reaction to lower demand. It doesn't necessarily imply a whole lot of hungry buyers are queuing up in greater competition for a smaller pool of housing
Markets are incredibly complex things, with a whole lot of bi-directional influences - many have an overly simplistic understanding of them
actually the lower listings are due to the economy....less people being transferred, less people able to afford to upgrade from their present home, less people to have the luxury of choice, more children staying at home after leaving school...in other words, as reflected in confidence surveys....the whole country, incl. housing has ground to a halt !!
Rob...before you believe what they tell you...take the time to search Treadme listings for Marlborough...use the select all slot and flip back to listing dates to get to jan first...now count the new listings up to Jan 31.
You will find listings have increased and for Blenheim by over 20%.
It is a pity Trademe is such a poor site for people to use...It would be so easy for them to provide a data mine button with from and to dates for a count...perhaps they should rename it "improveme"
8 new listings for the first day of Feb!
The report by the RE mob is pure crap.
If you have questions about the integrity of the data from Realestate.co.nz I would encourage you to read the whole report and to review the core data spreadsheet which is available to download.
The spreadsheet http://unconditional.co.nz/files/2011/02/NZ-Property-Report-data.xls provides month by month data by region going back to Jan 2007. The data shows the number of new listings added to the site each month by type (house, apartment, lifestyle property), it also deatils the asking price of each type of property by region by month and finally the inventory of property for sale in each region by month.
The website data is fact - there is no motivation, ability or desire to manipulate the data. We run a website - not a real estate company. If the market goes down we continue to advertise property for sale, if the market goes up we continue to advertise property - we have no agenda and no vested interest.
The data is provided for people to make their own judgements - please interpret as you wish.
You might not be cooking the data Alistair but somebody is feeding in data that is not correct. Rubbish in rubbish out!
The Marlborough listings post xmas have shot up..Blenheim listings up over 20%...as for the concept of inventory.....it's pure humbug. Go to Trademe and check for yourself...then tell me I am wrong.
At the end of Dec 2010 there were 238 listings for Blenheim...by the end of Jan 2011 there were 290....go figure!
Supply does nothing to satisfy demand! Only the ability to pay ,does. A property buyer can be given a choice of 1, or 1000 options, but if he can't afford to pay for even 1, then the supply side fundementals means absolutely nothing. What makes possible the ability to pay then? (1) credit (debt, actually) (2) savings or earnings (3) the sale of existing assets.
Which of those do the property advocates expect to help prices in New Zealand?
Listen to what your Government is saying to you. "Save more, spend less" or we are in real long -term trouble. I'll leave you to interpret exactly what you think Key & Co. is saying; but I'd wager that 'go and buy an asset that is at an historically high valuation, just becasue it 5% less expensive now than 3 years ago" isn't high up on their list of objectives.
According to the Herald the number of people who don't live in houses is increasing:
"...A team of social workers and volunteers found 74 men, seven women, and 10 whose gender couldn't be determined, sleeping in doorways, under bridges and in rough shelters around the city..."
...that's a whopping 0.02275% of the Auckland Ithsmus population, leaving only 99.7725% of the population living indoors. With so many people not living in houses (either through choice or lack of "ability to pay") demand must be falling away dramatically.
Just to keep you up to date with the house my daughter had a go at. I thought they put in a good offer, but it sold at 30K above their offer. This is a property in the 650 to 750 range. Nicholas I had warned them it is dangereous to be out of the market, and I just hope they are not going to experience the reason why.
When a market changes it is normally an overnight experience.
Hello NZ
People have to realise if you want a house than it means going without for a while.
Big changes in your spending habits,or buy in area which you can afford.
There is loads off cheap houses in Auckand,drive around.
Make it happen,get a bigger house an rent out a room or two.
No excuse,many people rent because they do not want other people around.
The houses are there all right,We fix them up all the time.
A big effort is required an mind set is needed.
Doom in gloom mongers will only hold you back.
Just ratttle thoses dags an get off ass an make it happen.
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