Housing market gets a 2nd wind

Property

Westpac economist says housing market activity is picking up sooner than expected

13th Nov 14, 5:25pm by Greg Ninness

<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/">Image sourced from Shutterstock.com</a>

Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck says the October housing sales figures released by the REINZ suggest the housing market has taken on a new lease of life.

In a First Impressions newsletter, Delbruck said there had previously been some loss of momentum in the market, possibly due to pre-election uncertainty, because the market's underlying drivers - easing fixed term mortgage rates, burgeoning immigration, and banks easing up on low equity lending, were generally supportive of more activity.

But with the election and uncertainty about a possible capital gains tax out of the way, the market appeared to be reviving.

"If anything, todays [REINZ] data show those more favourable conditions bearing fruit a bit sooner than we might have expected," Delbruck said.

"October saw the biggest monthly increase in sales since March 2013 ...and the average number of days to sell a house also eased back a little.

"And the gains were noticeably broad-based. House prices rose across the main centres and sales bounced in almost all regions."

Delbruck said he expected the market to get a modest second wind over the coming months, and the risk of this happening was a key reason the Reserve Bank had decided to keep its loan-to-valuation restrictions in place.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Our new free Property email newsletter brings you all the stories about residential and commercial property and the forces that move these huge markets. Sign up here.

To subscribe to our Property newsletter, enter your email address here. It's free.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

20 Comments

by bigblue | 13th Nov 14, 10:26pm 1415870806

Oh yes Mr Bank Economist of course house prices are rising as you have recently slashed your fixed mortgage rates - duh!

by Boatman | 14th Nov 14, 9:52am 1415911959

No , you are wrong mate we bring in 50,000 new migrants a year , that 1000 per week .

There are simply not enough houses for them to live in AND buy a second one as an investment without paying way over the odds .

They get in under the investor catagory ( like Kim Dotcom)

And they simply pay fro property what we think is too much , but by Hong Kong and Shanghai standards our property prices are an absolute joke , small change .

Many migrants cant speak English and cant find work , so they buy property , let it and earn their money that way .

Kiwis are all destined in the next generation to be tenants of a Chinese or Indian Landlord .

This process is so far advanced with commerical property , that many Kiwi owned small businessess are already tenants of Chinese or Indian migrant landlords .

Its probably too late to reverse the trend , things have indeed changed forever .

by xelnaga | 14th Nov 14, 2:32pm 1415928738

The time to do something about it was the election.

by Andrewj | 14th Nov 14, 2:36pm 1415928994

But debt needs to be backed by production or all hell gets let lose.

by Stephen Hulme | 14th Nov 14, 3:19pm 1415931554

Bit of production hell let loose at FSF meeting.

The Fonterra Shareholders' Fund, which holds 7.5 per cent of the world's largest dairy exporter, should be able to raise its 2015 dividend forecast given it expects to pay farmers less for their milk, reducing its input costs, a unitholder told the fund's annual meeting in Auckland.

There was no talk at today's Fonterra Shareholders Fund annual meeting as there was at Wednesday's annual meeting of the cooperative in Palmerston North, of maximising the best returns for farmers.

Unitholder James Morrison said while he accepted last year's reduced dividend, looking ahead at a potential $5/kgMS payout, which is what some bank economists are suggesting it could fall to, should mean a dividend of at least 44cps if not 75cps.

Chairman John Shewan said the 25cps to 35cps dividend was "getting back up to the levels we want it to get". "Although all unitholders want it to go higher, this is a long-term game." Read more

Hmmm - don't those that sell first sell best?.- Fonterra's cost of capital from this source is about to get a whole lot more expensive.

by notaneconomist | 14th Nov 14, 3:23pm 1415931817

Debt production.......is the new black AJ.

by Boatman | 14th Nov 14, 9:41am 1415911289

DUH !!! Hullo ! .........as my nearly 20 year -old daughter would say.

If you bring in 50,000 new migrants a year ( that nealry 1000 people very 7 days of the year ) and you have no houses for them to live in , the PRICES WILL GO UP .

Its the first law of economics , if demand exceeds supply , the price will go up until it is viable for suppliers to enter the market and supply more houses .

In the meantime dont be surprised as prices go up to the point that every young Kiwi is a tenant of a Chinese or Indian migrant landlord.

by raegun | 16th Nov 14, 7:42am 1416076967

They don't even have to be migrants in this country to be leec... I mean landlords AND they can take advantage of our social welfare system.

by steven | 16th Nov 14, 8:25am 1416079523

Foreigners are also busy land banking....so they are screwing NZers both ways....time to stop it.

retarded govns.

regards

by Machiavelli | 14th Nov 14, 10:59am 1415915988

Note to self: Buy more houses.

by Boatman | 14th Nov 14, 11:25am 1415917508

Okay , but firslty they all have to live somewhere .

And the tourists are not trreated as long- or medium- term migrants in the statistics .

Temporary workers for Chch rebuild are on a non- permanent work visa or work permit

by Your Landlord | 15th Nov 14, 1:24pm 1416011043

Yup... the pro property people on interest.co.nz were right. Salutations to Olly (aka Big Daddy), Happy 123, et al. Housing continues to be a great investment. The anti-property brigade have got it badly wrong, for many years now.

Game, set and match, the debate is over.

Perhaps you 'happy renters' and the rest of the anti-PI guys should go away and start your own website?

by steven | 15th Nov 14, 3:25pm 1416018345

Nothing like a vested self-interest giving themselves a self-congratulatory slap on the back is there.

Debate is far from over, but you just keep gambling, Im sure it will end well for you.

BTW this isnt a property website, maybe you might do better at whaleoil, he lives in his own la la land as well.

regards

by Your Landlord | 15th Nov 14, 7:54pm 1416034467

This isn't a property website but that's all some people seem to want to talk about steven.

by raegun | 16th Nov 14, 7:40am 1416076840

No, what they want it to rid the pace of the rentier class

by Your Landlord | 16th Nov 14, 4:20pm 1416108022

Why would you want to 'rid the place' of landlords who are, almost without exception, kind-hearted, generous spirited, men and woman who provide a valuable, much needed and highly valued service to the community?

by steven | 16th Nov 14, 8:36am 1416080167

Talk, more like boast.

Every time we look at a "this time its different" situation we see such ppl convinced they are making piles of $. Self-onvinced of their "genius", not caring about the risks and impacts of their stupidity or the impacts on others and that when it pops it will be other that pay the price. Personally I'd like to see debtors prisons return except of course its far more likely to cath the innocents than the guilty.

regards

by Your Landlord | 16th Nov 14, 4:44pm 1416109459

I am not boasting steven. Far from it, I am very humble. But I do know the facts.

One fact is, clearly, property doomsayers on interest.co.nz have got it wrong. Despite the worst recession since the great depression, house prices are up something like 30% in the last three years in Auckland (I don't know the exact figures... to be honest, I am tired of trying to keep track of the rises and quite frankly, it's boring to keep track of it all. Goodness knows how people can be bothered to keep track of what is, as we know , an ever repeating story ie: house prices rise).

The market has proved the doomsayers to be just plain wrong... sadly, your comment about having a 'debtors prison' is just an emotional outburst against honest landlords doing well becausing they are providing a service the economy values and people love.

Yes, people love the service landlords provide. They love it so much there are more and more people becoming tenants every year. How can you say it is bad for the economy when more and more and more people voluntarily become tenants? Rather, this is a sign that the economy is made more efficient by the relatively efficient provision of housing.

Good on landlords... they deserve their profits and do great things for people. You should be happy for them. Scarfie is... why aren't you?

by madness | 15th Nov 14, 2:11pm 1416013898

Interesting........ the property market is flattening according to this analysis www.properazzi.co.nz/insights/

by raegun | 16th Nov 14, 9:19am 1416082799

Just been watching Q+A with Bernard and Olly Newland, going by the constant smirk on Olly's face it is way, way, way past time to deal to the leech class