Population growth from migration sets a new annual record for the tenth month in a row

Population growth from migration sets a new annual record for the tenth month in a row

Population growth from migration hit a new all time high of 57,822 people in the year to May, the tenth straight month in a row that the annual gain from migration has set a new record.

The annual net gain in migration (long term arrivals minus long term departures) in the year to May was up 59% compared to the year to May 2014 (net gain of 36,397) and a up a whopping 826% compared to the year May 2013 (net gain of 6242).

The biggest source of migrants remains India, with a net gain of 12,098 people from the subcontinent in the year to May, compared with  6585 in the year to May 2014.

That was followed by a net gain of 8393 from China and Hong Kong in the year to May, compared with a net gain of 6817 in previous 12 months.

That was followed by 4473 from the UK and 4192 from the Philippines.

There was net loss of 1382 people to Australia the year to May, well down from the 9713 in the year to May 2014 and a net loss of 32,862 in the year to May 2013.

Of the 57,822 net new arrivals in the year to May, 46% arrived on student visas (although many of these would typically apply for residency at the end of their studies), 13% were on work visas, 7% were on residency visas, 6.4% were long term visitors, and 6.1% were NZ or Australian citizens who did not require visas.

In a Quickview newsletter on the latest figures, ASB's senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said he expected the net migration gains to peak at around 58,000 people a year.

"It's hard to see these positive drivers changing in the near term," he said.

"We expect that the population will continue to be boosted by net monthly migration inflows around current levels for at least the next six months, which would see annual migration inflows peak 58,000 in 2015.

"The risk is that this level of inflow remains elevated for longer than we currently forecast.

"For the economy, those expected strong migration inflows are part of our forecast for robust levels of consumption and housing demand.

"But the increase in the working age population because of migration is also helping keep a lid on wage inflation," he said.

 

 

 

 

 

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49 Comments

13
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What on earth is going on.

The government has neither brains nor balls.

These are not migrants that are here to help us. These are mostly migrants with nothing here to help themselves.

Auckland was already full. Where are these people going to live??

I know, they will evict NZ born Aucklanders from Auckland as they will pay more for their houses and in turn work for less money.

We need to stop this madness before they swamp our waka...

Add to to international flow numbers the feature that internal immigration is out, repeat 'out' of Auckland. What is the government thinking ???

13
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Absolutely nothing to do with a Auckland house price bubble, nothing at all, not a thing. Move along now, nothing to see here.

Where do 5,000 Indian students go? Are there enough places in colleges or is this a scam?

warehouses in auckland running 'management' courses, where attendence is optional and part time work on the side encouraged.

It feels like a scam that needs looking at. Campbell Live - where are you when we need you!!!!!

As a landlord, I quite regularly use student job search to find someone for those odd jobs (unskilled/semi stuff like clearing flats, shifting stuff, digging holes etc etc, SJS only refer a limited number of applicants, almost always the majority are from the subcontinent. Need I say more...

I got my numbers wrong:

"A total of 10,100 students arrived from India in the May 2015 year, an increase of 4,900 from the May 2014 year (5,300)."

Statistics New Zealand Report.

Ten thousand students from India! That's amazing and I would hazard a guess a very small percentage are buying houses (unless rich parents are sending a few quid their way? They would have to be from India's wealthy to afford the trip / fees).

There are 26,500 immigrants coming on student visas. (57822 x 46%)

That has to be a scam.

Secondary schools, UCOLS, Tech Institutes and Universities are actively recruiting students from Asia. Don't blame the foreign students themselves.

Most schools, including the one I work in, pay a staff member a fairly good wage to travel abroad to entice overseas students into our education system. Their fees of $20k+ p.a bolster revenues for each institution and enables them to stay financially afloat. If it weren't for overseas students, our domestic fees for tertiary students would be closer to that of what those in the USA and UK pay approx $20k per year. Our "donations" for domestic secondary students would be in the thousands.

Once again, we fail to see past our own agendas of affordable housing, too many Asians in Auckland rhetoric when our education system simply cannot rely on government funding as it stands.

You (and your kids) can't have it both ways.

Our school would have at least 20 full paying overseas students = $400,000.

Its mixing business with education and I'm not sure many of those foreign students get their monies worth..just quietly.

Follow the money. I've nothing against foreign students, they bring energy, optimism and more. Just wondering what was driving it... good post.

No body blames the foreign students, they are economic migrants. It’s the feckless Politians that let them in I blame.

There has been massive inflation in tertiary qualifications. Sales & marketing degrees, hospitality courses etc. When industry needs people it takes what it can, I’ve seen Engineers, IT, Computer programmers employed without the right education, and those sorts of jobs really benefit from education. The education system should slim down and provide just what is needed. Most of it could be done by self-study over the internet anyway. Kiwis may have their education subsidised but the qualification is devalued by the extra quantity of that qualification in the job market place. There are too many idiots with degrees.

“Agendas of affordable housing” More like a vested interest in an inflated asset class agenda. Everybody needs housing; the unaffordability is going to screw up people’s lives.

“Can’t have it both ways” a good value education and affordable housing, they shouldn’t be mutually exclusive. Education should improve your lot, not keep a dodgy education business afloat.

“I'm not sure many of those foreign students get their monies worth” Education worth probably not. But when it buys a family citizenship and some $XXX, XXX pensions it does.

“Can’t have it both ways” a good value education and affordable housing, they shouldn’t be mutually exclusive. Education should improve your lot, not keep a dodgy education business afloat.

They're not - in fact you only have to look at school zoning around Epsom and other wealthier suburbs in Auckland and the Nth Shore to see the demographic of those schools. I heard anecdotal evidence that 33% of Grammar is made up of Asian ethnicity. Brits and Sth Africans have a larger proportion in the Nth Shore than Maori and Pasifika (no surprise there).

And let's be honest, do you really think the folk that send their darling children to those schools want kids from the poorer suburbs? Besides, those schools can easily ask for "donations" in excess of $2000 and the parents will simply write out a cheque.

All I'm saying is that to qualify for the "best schools" you need to be living in zone and for most of us, we can't afford to, so our children's options of schooling is limited.

I say, let the rich folk do as they please and the rest of us settle for the best we have available in terms of schooling and housing.
That's what our government would want...

Thanks for the information dobrydan. It indicates to me NZ somewhere along the way has lost the plot.

Education is meant to assist the individual and society to get ahead. But if by flogging it off to private fee paying foreign students who are in part responsible for the housing bubble then how does that help individuals and NZ society get ahead?

Your welcome.

I'm not sure it's the foreign students who are in part responsible for the housing crisis in Auckland. Haven't you heard John Key tell us it's all about supply of land and housing and the Super City Council should be doing more... etc etc?

Private fee paying students do bring something to NZ's economy, I teach some of them and they're pretty switched on young people. Interesting someone above mentioned 3rd World citizens migrating to NZ, does that make our under-privileged 4th World?

Tertiary education has become big business and I'm sure if you delved a little further you would see some fairly good salaries to the 'top' dogs.

Yes, we have lost the plot - especially if most of these foreign students hope to stay in NZ long term. I teach a number of them too. They are good young people, with hopes and dreams to live in a genuinely fair and democratic society.. one with a social welfare system, one which is more civil, less populated and less polluted than where they come from. The problem is, our society is becoming more like where they are from at an alarmingly rapid pace. They can see the growing injustices better than their young NZ counterparts.

We do need to have a conversation about our NZ identity - but it has nothing to do with the flag, that's for sure. Great diversion from the things that really matter.

Kate: - an alarming observation

they seek a place with a social welfare system, one which is more civil, less populated and less polluted than where they come from. The problem is, our society is becoming more like where they are from at an alarmingly rapid pace

So, do they see they are in fact agents of change, re-creating the very conditions they seek to escape from, but bring with them

The impossibility of our society remaining un-changed, un-polluted and our identity un-corrupted

In the sub-atomic world of Quantum Theory by the very act of watching, the observer affects and changes the observed reality

In the physical world a theodolite is an instrument used to observe and measure distant objects. It provides a remote, non-contact method of observation which does not influence the behaviour of the objects observed

So, do they see they are in fact agents of change, re-creating the very conditions they seek to escape from, but bring with them

Yes, they do, but that of course doesn't deter them from their hopes to settle here - and their hopes that "we" will see the folly of our ways and hence, halt the decline during their lifetime. It is fascinating to read their written work as these students defend our democratic institutions with real passion and argue more vehemently against social and environmental injustice than their kiwi counterparts. It is completely understandable - as the saying goes, "you don't know what you've got till it's gone".

Don't get me wrong, most I teach would make absolutely great citizens .. but you've nailed the dilemma on the head. I do suspect that NZs social welfare state will not survive my lifetime - we (as a nation) simply are not prepared to defend it to the same degree that those who are without such safety nets are.

...ironic isnt it? "Prime Minister John Key has made the case in London for changing New Zealand's flag, saying it's a matter of patriotism".

So we get to vote on a flag, but of far more significance to patrriotism is the selling of the asset base behind our primary resources and rampant migration. So when do we get to vote on these issues?

http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/nz-flag-change-matter-patriotism-john-ke...

More than entire student population of Dunedin or P.N. 750 ish coming into p.n which isn't much although is still 1% of p.n population add natural growth and you'll be looking at growth rates there getting close to auck at 1.5% plus. Flood gates worked well over the weekend wanganui could learn a thing or too from big bro

This multicultural society we live in certainly makes me feel like a minority in our suburb. Our Asian brothers are not making it easy to bid successfully on a home!

NZ residents should be first in line to buy houses IMO. Sure, let migrants in and buy houses, but they should new ones, as we don't have the housing stock for our existing citizens. If they are bring in 50k new people into NZ, then they should be building 25k + new houses to house them in.

We really are a country that unless you own property, you may as well leave. Work hard becoming an expert and expect to afford to live here? Doesnt matter, can import your skills and wage inflation is zero because of it. Buy property in student cities if you want high tenant demand

doanchoo wurri

interest.co.nz economic calendar shows MoM increase as lower this month than previous month

Another economic calendar shows May increase as 0.1% compared to previous month 1.5%

That looks much better doesn't it?

12
up

Haw haw haw ....our "social engineering" plans are working out so well ...keep them coming in say, what ! .....haw haw ....means we can reduce our labour costs and have all this filthy luka from these deeliteful 3rd world countries, to inflate the price into wazooland on all my existing leaky, damp, crappily built Awklund properties ..... haw haw haw.

Middle class .....whats that ? I hear you ask ....well our ilk don't want you! ..why pay you $28 per hour when my little buddies from the sub continent will do it for $14 !!

I must say ...it's all going "swimmingly" well ....pardon the pun, as I am just going for a wee dip in the blue Pacifique ....Kaanapali Beach don't you know......then off for a $22 mai tai, courtesy of all those tax savings that wonderful government of yours in Aotearoa has enriched me with .... toodle pip for now "bank & wage slaves" ..... haw haw

.......insanity. As much as i detest what the Nats are allowing, I equally detest Labour for being so complicit...step up Labour and capture the mood for #### sake!

12
up

We need Winston!

You know what; i think you may very well be right...

Bit late, 8 months late, you are effectively damning him with faint praise

The percentages above add to approximately 78%, what about the other 22%?

826%? whaaaaaatttt!

If Bernard Hickey wanted to do something useful for a change, he could bring the immigration impact on housing and other social services to the forefront of people's minds.

Instead the public is led to believe that the housing issue is the fault of baby boomers owning all the property which is absolute utter crap.

I'm borderline Gen Y and I own lots of rental properties.

The real problem is prices being bid up because there is unsustainable migration not only from cash rich Chinese but from poor migrants soaking up all of the cheap housing and packing themselves into every nook and cranny in a third world way.

NZ perhaps has less than a decade to wake up and see what is going on, or else Dehli style ghettoes and Shanghai style shoeboxes are going to form the new NZ.

Bernard Hickey doing something? You must be joking

Here are the NZ Herald Hickey archives for the past 5 years
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/bernard-hickey/news/archive.cfm?a_id=625

Go through them and tell me how many were actually aimed at making a difference

The only worthwhile crusading he did was "actually" driving down to the Crafar Farms to look-see

Here is crusader Duncan Garner about to have a go

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/DUNCAN-GARNER-Do-we-need-a-proper-debate-on-i...

Watch him go - see if he makes a difference

One thing we definitely need to have the discussion about is what is the magic number that our population might reach when we,but especially those with their foot on the immigration accelerator, say that's it, I reckon we've got enough people now.
Anyone with half a brain knows there is no magic number, the idea here is never ending growth, something that will only end in tears as there is less and less to go around for more and more people.
The true magician will be the one who comes up to the real solution to how we continue to prosper without growth (Tim Jackson might have the front running on that)

"Instead the public is led to believe that the housing issue is the fault of baby boomers owning all the property which is absolute utter crap.

I'm borderline Gen Y and I own lots of rental properties."

Sorry our mistake...Gen Y own all the properties and overseas investors

It's bizarre how most commentators here see good news (Growth) as bad news instead. Weird.

11
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Explain away... Tell young Aucklanders how it's good for them, too.

Good call Caleb ....betya won't get an answer !
Will be another self centered greedy BB with neo-liberal blinkers on ....

Growth to what??!! Answer that

extract from email copied to Duncan Garner

Email
to (name redacted)
from Sales Agent (name redacted)
Bachelor in Economics Hohai University 2001
Hohai University - School located in Qingliang Hill, Nanjing
GradDip in Commerce and Marketing Auckland University 2002

quotes

1. sold under the hammer $1.258 million. Overseas Chinese buyer won the auction

2. No surprise, Chinese buyers were still dominating the auction. Two sold to Chinese Buyers

3. passed in and under negotiation with top bidder who was also Chinese

4. Our Chinese buyers helped us at Harcourts Flat bush push the house price even higher in (redacted) East Auckland and set a new record high price

5. Many buyers gathered on site at (redacted) Flat bush
Again dominated by Chinese buyers. Sold $1.31 million.
After helping translate, I'm confident that they had a much higher budget and were determined to win

Harcourts Real Estate - Flat Bush - Auckland
Management will not be pleased

Meet the team
http://flatbush.harcourts.co.nz/Meet-the-Team

I'm curious "two other guys"

If you owned any of the properties above and decided to sell, would you reject any of the offers/bids made by Chinese buyers?

Don't blame anyone taking what they can, that is the new world every man for himself. Unfortunately that is a short sighted view and our grandkids will be the ones to attend to the consequences. I hope we don't end up with a society the same as where some of our immigrants come from with gated communities and security guards protecting the wealthy from the rest of the citizens

Most of these migrants are from the skilled professional category with skills that NZ needs. I think their presence ups our game, makes us more competitive and improves our work ethics.

My workplace has some Indian and Chinese professionals. According to the cleaners, they regularly see Indians and Chinese still at the office at 6.30pm.
Most Kiwis have left the office by 5.15pm.

I worked in KL for a short time with a lot of Malay Chinese / Indians and noticed that they were also the last to leave. It was a pt of honour apparently to stay longer than the boss. Sounds good but when I checked they were largely doing minesweeper or solitaire on their PCs as the evening wore on.

Yes, I work for a company whose HQ is in Hong Kong. Work ethic there is very different. People start coming in at 9, 10 o'clock. Get some breakfast. Do an hour's work. Get a long lunch. Do 2 hours work. Get some afternoon tea.
Then, around 4pm is when everybody actually starts doing their jobs, and the drag it out until 8, 9pm.
They all live in boxes, so have nothing to go home to
when work's finished to go out to food markets or socialise in the bog city until midnight....
.
Different culture, different way of doing things.
Me - I'm of the opinion that if you start at 8.30 or 9, you should be able to leave at 5 or 5.30pm. If you can't get your daily work load done in that time, you're either poor at time management, or your workload is too heave and you need to escalate this to management.
.
This cult of 'busy'...
ugh.

I think... that if you want that game "up'ed" then you should move to China or India, if you love that lifestyle so much. Why did they immigrate to New Zealand? Was it because we were so like China and India, no, it was because were _aren't_ like China or India yet.
So lets talk about _quality_ of life for most people in China, or even Japan (what was Japan's young person suicide rate again? Or the young people speaking about sex or marriage.)

NZ doesn't need "those skills".
NZ needs to develop itself - and in that I mean the government and mentality that you have shown. NZ needs to develop the _ability_ and _drive_ to give its own people the skills it needs.

As you yourself have shown, NZers are generally ignorant.... as if you had actually thought about it; importing more and more expert people does NOT make the country "more competitive" nor can it "improve work ethics". This is -proven- by the _fact_ that if you are importing _into_ top jobs, then you've created a underclass, with a class ceiling. They can't get into the top jobs that you are filling with your imports (and their children, whom they will look after more carefully than indigenous Kiwi Kids) That underclass, whom have no where else to go to, become a constant burden on NZ in inability to perform at modern work levels AND in crime and community needs. so clearly _less_ competitive. And what is it like to be in a country and one of the underclass? Let's ask our Maori bro's ... or we could ask the Aboriginal Australians (who generally spit on Maoris for the Maoris aren't considered "oppressed enough" [yet]) are these people noted for their work ethic? no. Your second case is proven to be a falsehood. Now please explain to the rest of the class where you got that foolish notion; because as you seem like a sensible and intelligent person I doubt you would have come to that analysis purely from your own observations.