Housing values down in Auckland & Hamilton, rising in Wellington

Property

Has your house gone up or down in value? Depends where you live, according to the latest QV figures

5th Apr 17, 5:02am by Greg Ninness

Average residential property values are declining or flat in Auckland and Hamilton but rising strongly in Wellington, according to the latest figures from Quotable Value.

The average value of all homes in the whole of New Zealand was $631,432 in the three months to the end of March, up 0.6% compared to the previous three months.

But there were substantial variations around the country, with values in some areas declining or flattening out and rising in others.

Auckland: Messy with values down in some places, up in others. Average dwelling value $1,045,362, -0.2% in the last three months.

Within the Auckland region average values were down compared to three months ago on the North Shore (-1.4%), Manukau (-0.5%), and Waitakere (-1.4%), but up in Rodney (+1.2%), Central Auckland suburbs (+0.9%), Papakura (+1.2%) and Franklin (+1.1%).

Sales were down overall in Auckland and upmarket properties were selling better than those in less expensive areas, according to QV homevalue manager James Steele.

"The top end of the market where cash buyers are not affected by LVRs [Reserve Bank loan-to-value ratio restrictions] continues to see strong value growth... than those in cheaper parts of Auckland such as the city's southern and western outskirts," he said.

"Areas with lower value investor stock such as Manurewa and Papakura in the south, Hillcrest and Sunnynook on the North Shore and Ranui and Glen Eden in the west, areas previously dominated by investor demand, have seen values drop back."

However that was not making life any easier for first home buyers.

"While first home buyers face less competition for entry level homes, prices are still too high for most and there are reports of some deals falling over at the finance stage, with some having trouble securing finance due to stricter criteria from banks," Steel said.

Hamilton: Values have plateaued. Average dwelling value $532,888, -0.4% in the last three months.

"While the Hamilton market is not as frantic as it was this time last year and values have plateaued, there is still good demand for properties," QV homevalue Hamilton manager Stephen Hare said.

"Auctions have become less attractive with recent results seeing more properties being passed in.

"Selling with a listing price and by negotiation has become more commonplace with vendors less inclined to auction their homes in the current market.

"With the Hamilton City market seeing values plateau, we are now seeing a levelling out in value growth in surrounding small townships such as Ngaruawahia, Huntly and Te Awamutu."

Tauranga: Still rising but not as quickly as last year. Average dwelling value $676,381, +0.6% in the last three months.

"The Tauranga market continues to rise but at a much lower rate than prior to the LVR restrictions introduced late last year," Tauranga registered valuer David Hume said.

"There have been large value increases in the $1 million-plus bracket of the market as local and out of town cash buyers not affected by LVRs continue to move or invest in Tauranga.

"At the low end and mid-range of the market things are less frantic and rather than seeing 10 way multi-offers after the first open home, we are instead seeing the market return to a more normal situation."

Wellington Region: Values rising strongly. Average dwelling value $595,501. +3.7% in the last three months.

"Values have continued to increase in Wellington on the back of strong buyer demand," QV registered valuer David Cornford said.

Upper Hutt has seen the largest year-on-year value growth, followed closely by Lower Hutt and Porirua.

"First home buyers continue to look to these regions as they struggle to secure a home in Wellington City, where average values are now over $700,000, Cornford said."

Christchurch: Patchy, with less demand for mid-priced homes. Average dwelling value $497,120, +0.6% in the last three months.

"The market is a little patchy in terms of buyer demand and sales prices," QV registered valuer Daryl Taggart said.

"There have been more listings coming onto the market which is often the most popular time to sell. However given that demand has been lower since the latest round of LVR restrictions, this is meaning buyers have more choice.

"There is still very good demand for housing at the entry level of the market, with strong competition amongst first home buyers for properties priced under $450,000.

"However, in the next level up with home prices over $600,000, we are not seeing as much demand as it's out of reach for most first home buyers and those movers looking to trade up are a lot more fussy."

Dunedin: Values still rising, but off a low base. Average dwelling value $363,821, +2.7% in the last three months.

'Listing levels continue to be at low levels, meaning its slim pickings for buyers," QV Dunedin registered valuer Duncan Jack said.

"Home value levels continue to increase with reports of strongest demand being within the mid-price range of $300,000 to $400,000."

The chart below shows the average values for March in all districts, and their movement over three and 12 months:

QV House Price Index. Three months to March 2017
Territorial authority	Average current value $	12 month change %	3 month change %
Auckland Region	1,045,362	12.3%	-0.2%
Wellington Region	595,501	21.2%	3.7%
Main Urban Areas	748,957	12.3%	-0.3%
Total New Zealand	631,432	12.9%	0.6%

Far North	397,600	18.2%	5.5%
Whangarei	472,081	19.3%	3.1%
Kaipara	471,203	20.6%	0.8%
Auckland - Rodney	940,701	13.3%	1.2%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast	920,149	13.3%	1.8%
Rodney - North	964,038	13.4%	0.7%
Auckland - North Shore	1,201,367	11.5%	-1.4%
North Shore - Coastal	1,375,264	12.6%	-1.5%
North Shore - Onewa	952,902	9.9%	-2.3%
North Shore - North Harbour	1,184,914	11.1%	0.0%
Auckland - Waitakere	828,959	12.1%	-1.4%
Auckland - City	1,229,715	12.5%	0.9%
Auckland City - Central	1,062,943	10.8%	0.1%
Auckland City - East	1,542,858	13.3%	1.5%
Auckland City - South	1,108,497	12.2%	0.3%
Auckland City - Islands	1,066,785	17.8%	4.4%
Auckland - Manukau	900,324	12.6%	-0.5%
Manukau - East	1,165,890	13.8%	0.4%
Manukau - Central	681,232	9.3%	-1.0%
Manukau - North West	775,666	13.3%	-0.8%
Auckland - Papakura	689,859	12.6%	1.2%
Auckland - Franklin	667,209	13.1%	1.1%
Thames Coromandel	670,508	18.5%	5.3%
Hauraki	364,116	27.3%	3.1%
Waikato	451,956	22.7%	5.3%
Matamata Piako	412,431	26.1%	5.5%
Hamilton	532,888	15.7%	-0.4%
Hamilton - North East	677,418	17.0%	-0.6%
Hamilton - Central & North West	496,659	15.9%	-0.6%
Hamilton - South East	484,524	13.5%	0.0%
Hamilton - South West	467,316	14.5%	0.0%
Waipa	496,884	21.0%	2.1%
Otorohanga	258,186	15.3%	4.6%
South Waikato	196,418	35.7%	6.4%
Waitomo	171,185	16.5%	-0.8%
Taupo	435,052	15.8%	5.3%
Western BOP	590,608	18.7%	3.3%
Tauranga	676,381	18.3%	0.6%
Rotorua	391,910	28.2%	4.5%
Whakatane	398,552	24.5%	6.6%
Kawerau	171,118	43.8%	-3.0%
Opotiki	269,729	20.3%	7.8%
Gisborne	276,793	18.0%	2.8%
Wairoa	170,426	16.6%	3.6%
Hastings	398,612	20.4%	3.0%
Napier	422,945	17.9%	1.9%
Central Hawkes Bay	260,446	16.7%	3.8%
New Plymouth	418,057	10.0%	1.7%
Stratford	234,368	9.6%	-1.2%
South Taranaki	200,509	7.7%	1.2%
Ruapehu	162,274	16.3%	4.4%
Whanganui	217,672	14.2%	6.2%
Rangitikei	179,364	21.6%	12.0%
Manawatu	299,293	15.2%	5.1%
Palmerston North	351,959	14.8%	2.0%
Tararua	170,684	9.3%	1.3%
Horowhenua	264,918	22.3%	4.3%
Kapiti Coast	482,789	19.8%	0.4%
Porirua	511,483	25.4%	7.1%
Upper Hutt	442,379	26.6%	4.7%
Hutt	496,314	25.6%	5.4%
Wellington City	716,613	20.8%	3.3%
Wellington - Central & South	714,679	20.4%	2.5%
Wellington - East	781,177	20.1%	5.8%
Wellington - North	644,209	23.4%	4.8%
Wellington - West	808,973	17.4%	-0.9%
Masterton	288,996	16.5%	6.3%
Carterton	334,835	18.9%	6.0%
South Wairarapa	387,687	20.5%	6.6%
Tasman	512,754	16.3%	2.7%
Nelson	522,201	16.9%	4.5%
Marlborough	427,552	14.0%	1.4%
Kaikoura	N/A	N/A	N/A
Buller	185,358	2.0%	-0.3%
Grey	206,297	-0.6%	-2.9%
Westland	240,056	4.9%	2.7%
Hurunui	372,956	3.2%	-0.5%
Waimakariri	438,750	3.7%	1.6%
Christchurch	497,120	2.4%	0.6%
Christchurch - East	372,468	1.0%	1.1%
Christchurch - Hills	669,820	2.6%	2.0%
Christchurch - Central & North	586,247	2.7%	0.1%
Christchurch - Southwest	477,267	3.3%	0.6%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula	504,734	2.4%	-1.7%
Selwyn	546,633	2.7%	0.4%
Ashburton	346,678	2.0%	-1.7%
Timaru	338,997	6.2%	1.4%
MacKenzie	449,520	30.6%	9.5%
Waimate	218,755	1.6%	-3.0%
Waitaki	261,295	10.8%	1.7%
Central Otago	437,791	22.8%	10.0%
Queenstown Lakes	1,042,258	28.5%	2.0%
Dunedin	363,821	15.4%	2.7%
Dunedin - Central & North	376,502	14.8%	2.2%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal	338,306	19.6%	9.5%
Dunedin - South	343,886	14.7%	1.7%
Dunedin - Taieri	379,103	15.5%	2.1%
Clutha	189,673	6.9%	1.5%
Southland	248,195	14.9%	8.5%
Gore	208,501	9.5%	3.4%
Invercargill	237,168	8.9%	0.3%

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103 Comments

by Double-GZ | 5th Apr 17, 5:34am 1491327285

There are definitely different pockets of hot and not so hot spots in Auckland alone so the property values in the Super City cannot be viewed as a whole. Note that North Shore is the hardest hit of all Auckland.

Auckland's average current value is now $1,045,362, while the national average stands at $631,432, according to the QV House Price Index. While quarterly figures were flat, year-on-year Auckland values rose 12.3 per cent, QV spokeswoman Andrea Rush said.

"However, the top end of the market where cash buyers are not affected by the LVRs continues to see strong value growth, with the upmarket suburbs selling more readily and are seeing stronger value growth than those in cheaper parts of Auckland such as the city's southern and western outskirts," Steele said. "This is leading to higher value areas seeing property values continuing to rise in desirable areas with larger homes in central suburbs such as Remuera, Epsom and Mission Bay," Steele said.

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 5:43am 1491327814

Yes it is almost exactly as we predicted/observed except, perhaps, Papakura which appears to have gone up in value even though the text of this article suggests it has gone down.

Central Auckland suburbs (+0.9%), Papakura (+1.2%) and Franklin (+1.1%).

Even Christchurch up so THE MAN 2 should feel vindicated.

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 7:02am 1491332535

You understand the data set though, right? QV is purely 'modelled' prices that try and reflect 'expected' value. Models are reasonably slow moving beasts that require a lot of data points coming in. Therefore, they need to be taken with a grain of salt.

In terms of 'real value', this is best measured with actual sales data over a reasonable time period. Since, after all, a property value is only what someone else will actually buy it for.

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 7:14am 1491333291

So is there any value in this report then? DGZ and I might as well use it as it corresponds with what we have been saying.
Currently it is all we have to go on it would seem although I agree we have to wait much longer to see what is really happening.

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 10:12pm 1491387174

Is there any value in it? Good question. A property valuation company generating a model that tells you what the property value is ... oh, it's good... you should do another valuation... oh good, that made the value go up... you should do another/

I recall the Corelogic people getting neg press in Oz over it, when they have a vested interest in the output, should they also control the input?

by denpal | 5th Apr 17, 7:25am 1491333914

No, this index is based on real sales prices as a ratio to the individual CV of the property. It's not an expected price it's a real result.

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 10:10pm 1491387043

*sigh* no it's not.
"The average value of all homes in the whole of New Zealand was $631,432" --- did every house in NZ sell?

https://www.qv.co.nz/valuations-and-reports/the-evaluer

by Yvil | 5th Apr 17, 12:32pm 1491352356

Greg, can you please clarify what QV values are based upon. Many thanks

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 10:13pm 1491387224

The E-valuer
An E-valuer gives you an instant estimate of the current market value for a property and is the best source of buyer and seller confidence without the higher cost of a Full Market Valuation. It is an Automated Valuation Model (AVM) and is based on recent, nearby comparable sales created by CoreLogic NZ, New Zealand's leading supplier of property data and analytics. This report is Ideal for preparing to negotiate or looking to see how much your property is worth before selling. Purchasing an E-valuer also gives you:

Recent, nearby comparable sales, also mapped out for convenience
The property’s Rating Value
Additional property details including floor and land area and construction materials.

https://www.qv.co.nz/valuations-and-reports/the-evaluer

by Simon | 5th Apr 17, 10:24am 1491344642

QV are lagging figures, this is what the market was doing a few months ago -

Seeing an identical pattern to last LVR round : a few months of restructuring (re-fi to a new bank best LVR house(s), re-fi is exempt); then carry on as you were...

Auckland growth has to be limited by the theory of large numbers..

Outside Auckland, as in 2004-2007, another few years of catch up, Golden corridor welly-palmy (inclusive) is where the smart money is starting to pour into

by gingerninja | 5th Apr 17, 5:46am 1491327983

Price growth is still slowing in those suburbs though.

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 5:55am 1491328517

Yes but double digit growth is not sustainable for the long term and quite concerning even for the bulls. I was bracing myself for a storm however around +1% per quarter is sort of my ideal from now on. I would be happy if it stayed at that level or at least averaged at that level for long term stability.

by Double-GZ | 5th Apr 17, 6:02am 1491328955

Slow growing is healthy from time to time I'd say. The dampening of the market may be shallower than what we expected. This is a drizzle, not a storm and definitely not Cyclone Debbie!

by r-mc | 5th Apr 17, 8:28am 1491337695

Agreed, price growth is slowing. Not convinced a picture of people riding a rollercoaster is a great analogy of what this article conveys....

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 6:31am 1491330706

Seriously ... "Housing values down in Auckland & Hamilton, rising in Wellington"

Go to look at how much Auckland is down and it is -0.2%.

Is this a joke?

Can understand if 2% however 0.2% seriously. -0.2% is flat in my book. Good to see MSM trying to push the "Auckland Down" message in the run-up to the election. That is a whopping -0.07% per month or -7/10000 if converted to fractions :) :)

Powers at be must have called for some serious talk down of Auckland property.

The real story here is Auckland Housing $1,050,000 up $550,000 since National took office and nearly 20 times the median wage and over 10 times median household wages.

Up 12% this year despite LVR restriction and now time for Action. Vote the only party that will address the demand issue, Labour:

http://www.labour.org.nz/cracking_down_on_speculators
"Under our policy only citizens and permanent residents will be able to buy existing homes. Removing this speculative demand from the market will help stabilise prices and give Kiwi families a fair shot at buying a place of their own."

by keywest | 5th Apr 17, 2:03pm 1491357793

You can say the same for labour the 10 years prior, isn't the old saying prices in Auckland double every ten years?

by miles | 5th Apr 17, 6:36am 1491330986

Are these figures based off settlement date or sale date? I'd suggest in Auckland looking at the low auction clearance rates that the higher priced properties which are still moving skewing the market price. It will be interesting to see total volume of sales as I expect that to be well down on last year. For example Millwater would be one of New Zealand's largest developments and stock is >double what it was 3 months ago. They are building 50+ houses at any one time priced 1-1.5mil and the market has dropped out. The main buyers now are retired people looking for a single level easy maintenance property. The mansion 5-6 bed double story properties have frozen. And town houses selling for 1m are not moving either. There are no longer many Auctions. Some are listed PBN but most now have an asking prices. A lovely desirable area 20 mins North of Auckland CBD, but times have changed.

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 7:46am 1491335171

My quick search reveals it is 37 minutes away and that is no doubt outside of rush hour. I know a bit picky but that is almost twice 20 minutes. Once Stillwater would have been regarded as almost as far away as Helensville. The motorway systems have certainly improved the property values of these areas but the bridge remains problematic I feel. Hopefully the new systems opening up this year will give alternative options for moving around the city. Quick access is essential for good locations which is why my bet would be on West Auckland.

Auckland to Stillwater

by Leverageup | 5th Apr 17, 7:48am 1491335305

He was talking about Millwater.. which isnt too different but has its own offramp now so is a lot quicker.. https://www.google.co.nz/maps/dir/-36.8509128,174.7752929/-36.6037669,1…
My search was from Parnell as getting through the city at the moment is a nightmare (and misleading) and this is slightly more distance as well, for 27 minutes which includes morning traffic on the bridge (at the time of search). With the extention of the busway, it would still be a pretty good in peak traffic taking public transport.

But i knitpick.. 1.whatever million is still FAR too much for a house that far from the city..and a lot of that comes back to the ridiculous land price.

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 8:02am 1491336161

20 minutes north of the bridge is the usual slogan.

by miles | 5th Apr 17, 9:56am 1491342993

Hi Zachary, Millwater with it's own ramps to the Motorway is 20 mins to the fringe of the CBD, with no traffic. Probably 25-30 mins with Avg traffic, reaching 1-1.15 during rush hour, which is better than the southern. The Northern Express goes to Silverdale every 15 mins, and the Busway is being extended to Oteha valley next year... Saying that Traffic is getting considerably worse with all the new houses going in.. As might say Double GZ is certainly a lot more central and an easier commute to the CBD. West Auckland motorway works is certainly going to help them, until they get close to the CBD which will be the new bottleneck, and new Airport traffic.

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 10:16pm 1491387399

By Fringe CBD, do you mean Takapuna.... because when I google maps it now (10pm) that's what's 20 mins from Millwater.

by NorthernLights | 5th Apr 17, 4:23pm 1491366193

Good luck driving into the city from Stillwater in morning peak traffic Zach
Face it Auckland has become a congested city
Once Australia gets rolling again watch the exodus from Auckland
Nice to see yet another think tank is being formed on infrastructure !
NZ does meetings $ reports so well

by NorthernLights | 6th Apr 17, 3:08am 1491404888

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 7:03am 1491332611

Figures aren't based on sales (directly) ... just a QV model that predicts what a property 'may' be worth. Local sales are an input, but it takes time for models to reflect real world outcomes.

by r-mc | 5th Apr 17, 8:23am 1491337425

You're confused between actual sales data and the QV evaluer model. QV provides both and this report I understand is based on sales data.

by MisterB | 5th Apr 17, 10:22pm 1491387721

Looking at the details on the QV report, while the index is sales figures, the average value is not...

"the average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It is not an average or median sales price, as both of those only measure what happens to have sold in the period."

by Sluggy | 5th Apr 17, 7:18am 1491333518

20 mins from the CBD at 3am Sunday morning. In rush hour an hour and a half away. I know of three large home building outfits that are either in liquidation or very close to it, all volume home builders on the shore, combination of mismanagement and believing the hype ?

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 6:48am 1491331691

1. Election year ,
2. Media talking up the Auckland price drops despite -0.07% monthly drop,
3. Chinese Government limiting currency withdrawals for overseas property. (30 to 50k )

My guess is 3 is the main driver as it is in other markets offshore.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/robert-gottliebsen/cas…

'Finally it has happened. Chinese buyers have markedly reduced their buying of Sydney apartments.
I was alerted to the Sydney decline by the city’s largest apartment owner and developer, Meriton’s Harry Triguboff. Chinese and other Asian buyers have dominated Sydney apartment buying, at times reaching 80 per cent of the market.

Let’s use Harry’s words to describe why Chinese are pulling back. “The reason is that it is harder for them to get money out of China (Beijing limits cash exports to $US50,000a year per individual). The Chinese buyers must now get financial assistance either from developers or banks. (Meriton is funding Chinese buyers who bought off the plan and now need help to settle)."

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 7:08am 1491332911

Apartments are like a separate market really. I have always felt you won't get rich buying apartments as they haven't historically done all that well. It's a bit like at the Casino when the table is full. Do you put your money behind the player who has a big pile of chips or a small pile of chips?

by M.Aurelius | 5th Apr 17, 7:42am 1491334957

That wasn't the point of what Joe Public was saying. The point was asset prices here are overinflated inflated due overseas money flooding the market and now the tide is going the other way. He’s right. You said yourself you are expecting a storm. I agree with you, this is the calm before the fun starts.

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 8:01am 1491336100

Bang on M.A... and in Australia remember Foreign buyers are NOT allowed to buy existing properties so they are stuck buying apartments (new builds)

http://www.sro.vic.gov.au/foreignpurchaser
Foreign purchasers

You will be a foreign purchaser if you are a foreign natural person, a foreign corporation or a trustee of a foreign trust.

Foreign natural persons
You are a foreign purchaser if you are not:

- A citizen or permanent resident of Australia,
- Or a New Zealand citizen with a Special Category Visa (Subclass 444)

Like Labour's new policy !!!! #lovelabour
"Under our policy only citizens and permanent residents will be able to buy existing homes."

by Double-GZ | 5th Apr 17, 8:11am 1491336718

Joe Public sounds like Phil Twyfie to me eeeek.

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 8:26am 1491337590

Double GZ Labour got you rattled?
I guess lots of other Real Estate agents feel the same way. Don't want to mess with the status quo .

Labour's policy seems like common sense. Put NZ citizens and Permanent residents first.

"Under our policy only citizens and permanent residents will be able to buy existing homes. Removing this speculative demand from the market will help stabilise prices and give Kiwi families a fair shot at buying a place of their own."

Print it and hang it up in your office today :)

by Double-GZ | 5th Apr 17, 8:27am 1491337678

Our people in this part of Auckland will never vote for Labour, Phil.

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 8:30am 1491337844

Our people .... haha.. you mean real estate agents ?

here is a video you can watch now that your real estate business is slow;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA8dyVZi25I

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 8:53am 1491339230

Auckland has had Labour mayors for 7 years now, Len Brown and Phil Goff have been exceptionally good value for the real estate agents. Labour has been restricting land supply to Auckland and building new suburbs miles away.

Labour - long polluting commutes, heaps of traffic and no homes getting built.

Labour are worse than National.

by Double-GZ | 5th Apr 17, 8:57am 1491339425

First of all I am not a RE agent. I am sitting in my office in the CBD (with seaviews) and I am working in the IT industry. I agree that Labour is a lot worse than National.

by Matt73 | 5th Apr 17, 9:21am 1491340912

So what you're saying is, you work in the IT Department of an RE company?

by Double-GZ | 5th Apr 17, 9:44am 1491342258

No that's not what I am saying. My work is not related to RE at all.

by two otherguys | 5th Apr 17, 9:48am 1491342487

when do you work?
When you are not trawling and commenting

by Matt73 | 5th Apr 17, 10:24am 1491344679

My apologies, so you in fact work in the IT Department of an Advertising Agency and while focusing on your not RE related IT work, this Advertising Agency sell RE ads?

Am I getting close?

by NorthernLights | 6th Apr 17, 3:12am 1491405134

DubleD you are sitting in your CBD office writing to this blog !? Productivity Audit FAILED

by Double-GZ | 6th Apr 17, 8:26am 1491423984

Morning tea break.

by two otherguys | 5th Apr 17, 9:46am 1491342365

That is a very revealing statement Double-GZ

by Kate | 5th Apr 17, 1:38pm 1491356325

"Our people" - classic. Perhaps DGZ works in a Nat or ACT party electorate office :-).

by two otherguys | 6th Apr 17, 8:47am 1491425227

No ... took it as an un-intended reference to his Asian ethnic brothers

by fat pat | 5th Apr 17, 9:47am 1491342458

DGZ - Phil Twyford could well become the hero of a disenfranchised generation of New Zealanders that the National party abandoned. It’s interesting that you should character assassinate him out of the blue. Who would do that? maybe a paid employee of Nationals PR company “Croxby Textor”, or perhaps Cameron Slater, or perhaps someone inside the National party…. eeeek

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 9:00am 1491339632

True fat pat. That did come out of nowhere .... eeek

Good on Phil for bringing out a policy that NZ actually needs ... one that will help FHB's for once by taking out a chunk of demand.

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 8:29am 1491337745

That is a very good policy for Australia, because they have spent the last 7 years building homes and have an oversupply.

In NZ we have spent the last 7 years buying land and trading land and buying land, but not building anything.

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 8:08am 1491336484

How is the tide going the other way? The money is here and is staying here. The Chinese have gone to a lot of effort to accumulate money and get it out - the last thing they are going to do is send it back to China where it gets locked down.

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 8:09am 1491336543

New money isn't there .... that's the point

Always need new money to keep the wheels turning...

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 8:13am 1491336806

That's a bit different to the tide going the other way. Wheels could stop or just slow, not necessarily go backwards.

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 8:20am 1491337241

That is true.. time will tell I guess.

by RichMuhlach | 5th Apr 17, 9:22am 1491340932

Don't fall for the trap, Joe Public, you had it the right the first time. The Chinese cannot transfer money anymore without risking getting caught by SAFE since the restrictions in January 2017.

This year they may still be fine, but next year is a totally different story.

"For Zheng, the decision on whether to walk away from his Melbourne property or risk breaking China’s foreign-exchange rules is fast approaching. He’s scheduled to wire another 800,000 yuan to Australia in late February to cover the rest of his down payment.

“I can probably meet future mortgage payments with rental income from the villa, but a more imminent problem is whether to wire money abroad now,” Zheng said. “I’m not too sure about that. It’s safer not to stick my neck out."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real…

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 8:30am 1491337833

Without capital gain why would anyone hold property in the Auckland market?

by Zachary Smith | 5th Apr 17, 8:43am 1491338621

Chinese people and others have a much longer view of things than your typical property speculator. As I have stated before they are not buying for capital gain only. China is an authoritarian state while Auckland is a safe, modern, prosperous and free, English speaking, British heritage, cosmopolitan city with an international airport. You can't actually go wrong buying in Auckland from their perspective. Even rich Chinese want to live in Auckland and have their children go to nice schools and tap into all the opportunities the entire Western world has to offer. It's not fundamentally about making money.

by RickStrauss | 5th Apr 17, 8:59am 1491339572

The choice is not only between Auckland and China, but Auckland and other western cities.

Vancouver is now seeing some Chinese investors picking up sticks and heading elsewhere, anticipating long term stagnation or decline in prices.

It shows that there are political measures that can be implemented that will ultimately cool the market and gradually make it about home ownership rather than investment once more.

by CJ099 | 5th Apr 17, 8:48pm 1491382107

You're behind the curve and missing the bigger picture Zachary. It's just they just want the same middle class values and comforts of home that the rest of us hanker for. So they're quite happy to setup home, much closer to home. Remember; China is going through a huge economic change, moving from an industrial focus (Which lest them with huge pollution problems), to an Technological focus.

And they're building new cities to support their new future and the best of luck to them, right now I think they have a much brighter future than the Americans.

BBC Business Matters: Property Buying Frenzy in the City That Doesn't Exist
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04yc2h4#play

by M.Aurelius | 5th Apr 17, 8:59am 1491339596

Sale volume is very low, listings are very high and prices by slowing, stagnant or downwards. Backwords, sideways, descending, slowdown, downturn… use whatever semantics you like.
Let’s get something clear though. If money came from China to buy a house and they sell it doesn’t get sucked back into China by default. There are plenty of other places to put money that will not slowly loss value in the near term. These properties were bought as investments so will get traded just like any other investment asset.

by two otherguys | 5th Apr 17, 8:23am 1491337400

Should the next government introduce a requirement that non-residents and foreign buyers can only buy new builds and if the buyers want close to the CBD then you will see a substantial lift in demand for NEW apartments

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 8:41am 1491338510

Apartments don't do well in Auckland, but in the real world they out perform houses. Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney - apartments are king investment in their boom.

In the real world cities grow in an economical form that agglomerates increasing value to the centre, apartments at the centre make the big gains.

In cuckoo-crazy land we spend $billions developing exurbs miles away from the city and sprawl wildly into the distance. Apartments do poorly compared to houses.

Auckland Council planning FTW.

by RickStrauss | 5th Apr 17, 9:00am 1491339649

Problem in Auckland is that apartments have often been tiny and low quality. Leaking Hardie-flex or whatnot cladding, big 'bankable' 45sqm 3 bedroom etc.

by B39 | 5th Apr 17, 9:23am 1491340996

Wouldnt touch apartments with a barge poll.
Leaky buildings, under funded maintenance funds, body corporate issues, leasehold, way too easy to over supply the market (bung another 20 storey apartment building next door compared to the difficulty increasing stock of character villas in Mt Eden)

by two otherguys | 5th Apr 17, 9:36am 1491341774

For some time Interest.co.nz when reporting the weekly Auckland Apartment sales reported the previous sales history and in many if not most cases the vendor was taking a large hair cut not only in price but had been voluntarily locked in for 10 years awaiting recovery

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 9:33am 1491341618

We got stuck with those out dated shoeboxes from the 90s, because Auckland land prices appreciated much faster than apartments. Apartment building became an under performing asset class investment, compared to the guaranteed profit of buying an existing house.

by THE MAN 2 | 5th Apr 17, 8:25am 1491337516

When markets are quiet and people aren't buying is when you should be buying if the figures stack up and you can see upside or you can improve.
Opportunities are always around you and the people who get ahead in life are the ones to take a punt.
Christchurch is definitely a desirable place to live and invest in and still extremely affordable for most, and with the rebuild still happening will be the city of choice in NZ going forward.

by mathclub | 5th Apr 17, 8:52am 1491339174

Christchurch has never been, and will never be, the 'city of choice in NZ'.

It's in the South Island for a start.

by Wildcard | 5th Apr 17, 9:10am 1491340245

It's far easier to get ahead in life and buy a property when you're a trust fund baby or your parents go guarantor on your house. For the majority of us who aren't so lucky it's a long slog to save a deposit. I personally have lived in Christchurch my whole life up until 2012 and will never go back there. I find it a boring city with no jobs in my field.

by THE MAN 2 | 5th Apr 17, 3:12pm 1491361970

Where do you live now?
Chch is a fabulous city with opportunities galore, but if you aren't prepared to look for opportunities it wouldn't be that flash!

by tgcam4 | 5th Apr 17, 10:08am 1491343712

"if the figures stack up"...

by Fritz | 5th Apr 17, 8:31am 1491337884

These are average prices not median.

by mathclub | 5th Apr 17, 8:54am 1491339261

The bottom end of Auckland is dropping out but the top end is holding up, for now. Therefore you would expect to see the median drop more than the average.

REINZ stats will be interesting. Volume sold down, days to sell up, prices probably flat for another few months until the real fun starts.

by Carlos67 | 5th Apr 17, 8:59am 1491339541

On the radio this morning the bubble has not burst and the small leak that was going psssssst has already been patched. Some areas already going up again we have already bottomed out. Year on year gains still huge so get in now if you can afford to do it but factor in potentially higher interest rates. Nothing has changed really. Also record new car sales this month.......again as it has consecutively been for the last 3 years. Gee my 2004 Subaru is now an old banger, must be one of the few that can pull their head in and resist putting a new car on the house.

by Fritz | 5th Apr 17, 9:04am 1491339873

Which radio station? Which commentator?

by Wildcard | 5th Apr 17, 9:11am 1491340314

Probs Mike Hosking :)

by B39 | 5th Apr 17, 9:17am 1491340640

yep, you guessed it right.

by Carlos67 | 5th Apr 17, 10:31am 1491345072

No it was actually on the 1ZB news as part of a QV report.

by mathclub | 5th Apr 17, 9:27am 1491341223

That's just false. The lack of sales and growing days to sell a house tell a different story.

by RichMuhlach | 5th Apr 17, 9:32am 1491341520

and also the low auction clearance rates and the high number of listings on TradeMe (Auckland properties up 11k again)

by delboy | 5th Apr 17, 9:28am 1491341319

A small leak (like a small cut) will overtime prove fatal. People are starting to realise the price gains were purely due to cheap loans and Auckland in reality is a crime ridden, dirty, damp city with ageing infrastructure.

by keywest | 5th Apr 17, 2:07pm 1491358037

Loans are not CHEAP in NZ, go to Europe where they are 1.5%

by keywest | 5th Apr 17, 2:08pm 1491358105

Oh and in Europe they also let pesky baddy foreigners buy as well...especially those naughty naughty people from China

by Hellomatt | 5th Apr 17, 9:32am 1491341533

Is supply really an issue? We need to catch up to Australia in terms with income to house ratio. Building more houses probably won't help the economy. Cheaper rent will first.

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 9:49am 1491342599

Yes, supply is an issue. How do you think we get cheaper rent?

Rent depends on supply, as the house price comes down and we build fewer and fewer houses the rent will go up faster and faster.

The only way to get cheaper rent if we don't build homes (and we definitely don't build hoses in Auckland) is for everyone to move to where they do build.

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 9:59am 1491343174

How do you think we get improved wages?

If we build more houses, we employ more people to build and pay them more.

If we build less houses we pay them less.

by Hellomatt | 5th Apr 17, 10:19am 1491344393

I see, so supply will give more jobs and abit more affordability but the distance is still too far.

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 1:47pm 1491356844

By building an oversupply of homes (like in Aussie) when a correction occurs at the end of a cycle the house prices fall and the rents fall. However these are attractive things for people and businesses who come in, bringing jobs with them. So their wages don't fall so much and house prices stabilise. And the cycle repeats itself.

Auckland builds an undersupply of houses, guess what is about to happen.

by Averageman | 5th Apr 17, 9:45am 1491342333

Lets look ahead to the prospect of a NZF and Labour led Govt after September. Winston's Land Transfer (Foreign Ownership of Land Register) Amendment Bill only failed its first reading by 3 votes and was withdrawn. Dollars to donuts it will be reintroduced and passed unless National maintains its near majority. Its not much of a stretch to see proposed register make its way to Chinese government hands when such an important trading partner demands it to start "discussions" with its naughty citizens.

The choice for the Chinese escaped money when they get a please explain is a) to sell and expatriate the money back to china with a big penalty (read in any capital gain) or b) get registered on the organ harvesting list alongside the Falun Gong.

Would be interesting what impact this might have on specuvestor land. That said we still cant evict the Fat German so it might never happen...

by RickStrauss | 5th Apr 17, 10:31am 1491345111

One would think the Maori Party would be keen on this bill too, as it would assist many Maori around NZ have an increased chance of home ownership.

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 2:00pm 1491357602

It will only benefit any middle class people who have the required amount of savings to purchase investment properties and so will be able to live in a house they own. Poor tenants will be evicted and be faced with homelessness or high rents. The number of houses being built will fall even further and a large number of low skill labouring jobs will cease.

by unaha-closp | 5th Apr 17, 3:14pm 1491362057

[double comment]

by mvgsmf | 5th Apr 17, 9:53am 1491342830

Pity we don't have the stratified index to help shed some light on whats happening on a now and then by suburb/house basis...it always seemed the best measure?

Can anyone assist with it?

by ngakonui gold | 5th Apr 17, 9:57am 1491343035

Doesn't matter how much house prices go down,you can bet your life that if you cannot afford to buy today,chances are you still wn't be able to in 1,2,3, or even 4 years.

by two otherguys | 5th Apr 17, 10:07am 1491343648

When in Beijing do as the Beijingers do

A local married couple, from this week, can only own one apartment and one house.

Non-residents cannot buy a single-storey house unless they have paid tax in the city for five years

http://www.smh.com.au/world/beijing-slaps-real-estate-ownership-restric…

by Carlos67 | 5th Apr 17, 10:29am 1491344989

Yes but in case you didn't notice the piece on TV a month or so ago people over there are getting divorced so they can buy more houses, then they simply remarry later on. There are always loopholes in any system.

by zorba - old | 5th Apr 17, 11:43am 1491349387

Ha, ha - yes..

by Rob | 5th Apr 17, 1:29pm 1491355786

IMO we have reached a sort of peak in AUckland at least, because the prices are at the limits of what a working couple can afford to pay, and what banks are comfortable at. We are also not getting a lot of people renting out parts of their house for AirBNB, because they want to pay of their mortgage easier. Unless we allow 3 person marriages, I can't see prices rising too much more, unless wages increase too. Wellington has a lack of supply in the city, and people want to be in a good school zone. Maybe if we got rid of school zones, it could mean people can live where they want to live, without it affecting the schools the kids could go to.

by Joe Public | 5th Apr 17, 9:56pm 1491386166

That assumes the only people buying are NZ citizens ... when NZ is open for sale on the Global Market then it is a different story.

Remember we have the worlds lowest Purchase Tax for Foreign Buyers ZERO% . A house in Auckland is still relatively cheap when compared to an apartment in Hong Kong or London for example.

The stall in prices is a reflection of the Currency Controls the Chinese government brought in. No more no less.

Labour's new policy will address that so we don't need to rely on foreign governments to Curb demand on NZ property.

http://www.labour.org.nz/cracking_down_on_speculators
Under our policy only citizens and permanent residents will be able to buy existing homes. Removing this speculative demand from the market will help stabilise prices and give Kiwi families a fair shot at buying a place of their own.

by Rob | 6th Apr 17, 12:04am 1491393891

That assumes that what National have said is incorrect, and that we don't have a problem with overseas buyers buying NZ houses, and pushing up prices.

But I agree that we do have a problem with overseas buyers buying existing houses. They should be made to build new ones, which seems to be standard in places in Australia. But we also have a lot of other things pushing up prices, such as a lack of competition in the building materials sector. Lack of builders, plumbers, electricians, which means they are now earning huge salaries in many cases.

by Joe Public | 6th Apr 17, 2:51am 1491403913

It is not just overseas/off shore buyers.

Foreign Students and Temporary Visa workers are also foreign buyers and the current National Government does not classify them as Foreign buyers. On the LINZ results (before they pulled the plug on reporting Students & temp workers) this group made up 30% of the Resident Buyer total.

Labour will classify these as Foreign Buyers to bring NZ in line with Australia. Only NZ Citizens and Permanent Residents will be allowed to buy existing homes.

by RickStrauss | 6th Apr 17, 10:50am 1491432601

Yeah...the last nine years seems like National trying to obfuscate and hide at every opportunity, the more to resist taking any action that will affect the personal dollar balances of their core investor-voter bloc. Young Kiwis appear to have been sacrificed for these voters' personal gain.

by Penfold | 6th Apr 17, 10:40am 1491432024

Often reading on here in the comments sections the Trade Me inventory numbers for Auckland hovering around the 11k mark. Interesting to read here (link below) about Wellington sales, albeit from a RE Agent press release. 1543 properties for sale in March (up from 1029 in January)
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1704/S00120/wellington-housing-market-…

So 7 x as much property for sale in Auckland than in Wellington, for a city 3 to 4 as big. Supply side, demand side etc etc etc, although I guess the discussion is now turning to 'supply side' also in Wellington. Although this discussion can easily get railroaded by agendas when using photos of queues on the street to view student flats in Feb (when it is always busy).

The article also has some interesting comment on consents, and WCC plan for a $5,000 rates incentive for first home builders. Not something I had heard of before.

Has your house gone up or down in value? Depends where you live, according to the latest QV figures

QV House Price Index. Three months to March 2017

103 Comments