New dwellings consents rising 10% a year, but Auckland's housing shortage still increasing

Property

New dwelling consents pick up in March, but still not enough to solve Auckland's housing shortage

28th Apr 17, 11:39am by Greg Ninness

The number of new homes being consented rose for the third month in a row in March, with 2779 new dwelling consents issued, compared with 2418 in February and 1752 in January, according to Statistics NZ.

Compared to March last year the number of consents issued was up 20%.

The figures show new homes being consented are consistently increasing at around 10% a year, with the number of consents issued in the 12 months to March (30,626) up 10.2% on the previous 12 months, which was up 11% on the 12 months prior to that.

In Auckland, where the need for new housing is greatest, consents were issued for 942 new homes, up 19.6% compared to March last year, and the fourth highest number of consents issued in any of the previous 12 months.

However the number of consents issued in Auckland is still well below the estimated average of 1250 new homes that need to be built each month just to keep pace with the region's burgeoning, migration-driven population growth.

That means Auckland's housing shortage is continuing to grow, adding to the estimated existing shortfall of at least 30,000 homes in the region.

Within the Auckland region the highest number of new consents issued was in the Albany District on the North Shore, where 227 new homes were consented, followed by Rodney with 122, Central Auckland 116 and Manukau 114.

In a First Impressions note on the figures, Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the building levels in Auckland were expected to continue rising over the coming year.

"Much of this month's increase [in Auckland] relates to multi-unit consents such as apartments and townhouses, potentially reflecting inccreased activity from developers now that the new Unitary Plan has cleared its legal hurdles," he said.

Outside of Auckland, the biggest areas of consenting activity were Canterbury with 491 new consents (278 in Christchurch), Waikato 319 (123 in Hamilton), Bay of Plenty 230 (169 in Tauranga), Otago 210, Wellington Region 160 and Northland 135.

The total value of new dwellings consented in March (excluding land) was $1.024 billion, which was the the third month in the last 12 that it has exceeded $1 billion.

In the year to March the total value of new dwellings consented was $10.778 billion, with another $1.907 billion of structural additions and alterations consented, taking the total value of all residential work consented to $12.685 billion, easily an all time high and up 14.9% compared to the previous 12 months.

Stand alone houses remain the most popular type of dwelling being consented by a considerable margin, with 1923 houses consented in March and 407 townhouses/units, 252 Apartments and 197 retirement village units.

Building consents - residential

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Source: Statistics NZ

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27 Comments

by J.C. | 28th Apr 17, 11:49am 1493336941

The new meme on the street is that you have to import migrants to build houses for the migrants.It may sound somewhat hokey, but look to the wisdom of dear leaders like Steven Joyce.

by David George | 28th Apr 17, 12:42pm 1493340170

You couldn't make it up J.C.
A little arithmetic on the Auckland house price fiasco.
Some estimates put the rise in immigration driven population in Auckland alone over the past 5 years at 50K/year and as high as 60,000 just recently. In that time the median house price has gone from $495K to $890K an extra $395K. So the typical home buyer is faced with an additional $16,000/year in average repayments (25 year mortgage) plus almost $20,000 annual additional interest.
How much of that price rise is due to the demands of an extra 200,000 to 250,000 new Aucklanders is uncertain but all agree it is a large factor.
Your house buyer not only has desperate third world immigrants undercutting them on pay - say $10,000 plus the thirty odd thousand housing cost increase and Joyce reckons she's all good, or nothing that a few hundred thousand more immigrants won't fix.
There's an old saying; if it ain't broke don't fix it. We've had years of a different approach, the John Key approach: if it ain't broke fix it till it is!

by PocketAces | 29th Apr 17, 7:53am 1493409182

"How much of that price rise is due to the demands of an extra 200,000 to 250,000 new Aucklanders is uncertain but all agree it is a large factor."
Who is kidding who? Of course it is one of the main factors, maybe the main factor along with purchases from people not even living here.

by Rob | 29th Apr 17, 6:49pm 1493448545

Won't the extra repayments people will have to make from the price rises, be significantly more when interest rates rise? I am really wondering if New Zealand is a better or worse place to live, then we were in 2008. Or in 1999.

by PocketAces | 29th Apr 17, 7:51am 1493409066

Ah, perpetual motion

by kiwimm | 28th Apr 17, 12:19pm 1493338779

Population increase in the last 12 months is 100,182 (71,982 net migration plus 28,200 natural increase). assuming these new people occupy houses at the national average of 2.7 people/dwelling then they will need 37,104 dwellings vs 30,626 consented. So the shortage gets bigger by a further 6,478 houses.

by spinach1 | 28th Apr 17, 12:44pm 1493340277

I still don't buy the shortage thing. I think the term has been substituted for "demand", primarily from speculative investors. Clearly a consent for a studio does not equate to a Mcmansion, the clamour is loudest from those whose motivation is profit, votes or both. Until I see the total count of existing dwellings and their total accomodation capacity as applied to the population proving there is not enough housing for all it is just so much sensationalised spin. In living memory there were parts of Auckland which were reasonably cheap to live in, with that cost now rising beyond incomes, those who held on for a while by putting more bodies into a house can no longer continue. Short answer, If you don't work for a living (and many do not) or have low paid jobs just to pay the rent, vote with your feet, move somewhere affordable. Right there is your natural supply and demand, that is how it works.

by NorthernLights | 28th Apr 17, 3:14pm 1493349241

Spinach don't forget the empty houses purchased too
The 6 bedroom house next door to mine was sold in 2014 and remains empty !
It's young Chinese owners purchased from another lovely Chinese family who also used to act as nominee
for relatives & friends wishing to invest in Auckland.
The Key government knew this was happening After all they had Maurice Williamson helping out some it was reported.
The practice of leaving homes empty means no tenant wear & tear & is actually sensible if the object is to
wait for capital gains. The government prefers to act oblivious

by Factboy | 28th Apr 17, 12:45pm 1493340339

Why does the propaganda media not get the fact that you CAN NOT live in a consent. Maybe they're paid too handsomely to be so hypocritical.
It's purely 'running pass interference' by the National party and it's propaganda outlet units.
STOP immigration (bar the humanitarian and a FEW obvious others) until the housing problem is resolved!! NZ should be for the benefit and refuse of it's citizens, NOT for others. And we CLEARLY can not accomodate these HUGE immigration numbers.
And for those that want to make this a racist issue, wake up and smell the roses. We can NOT house the world, therefore agree on a reasonable quota, stand at a general election EVERY TIME with those numbers official and in stone, and go from there.
OR be happy that Kiwis live on the streets, beg, live in cars and garages and we as a nation will have HUGE bills to pay for in the future for SERIOUS health and 'law and order' issues.

by Brock Landers | 28th Apr 17, 2:08pm 1493345309

The "shortage" will disappear fairly quickly once we change the government and get some control on immigration.

by ngakonui gold | 28th Apr 17, 2:15pm 1493345728

I have to ask,how long is '''fairly quickly'''.

by Brock Landers | 28th Apr 17, 4:36pm 1493354201

A couple of years would be my pick.

by Don m | 28th Apr 17, 3:40pm 1493350859

if there is a change of govt then you are right there will be a change in demand ..
reducing house prices.
this however will be due to emigration rather than immigration

by Brock Landers | 28th Apr 17, 4:38pm 1493354287

Neoliberal zealots leaving in droves? Great!

by Yvil | 28th Apr 17, 5:58pm 1493359125

Yes Brock, and the tooth fairy will probably solve the shortage

by Plutocracy | 30th Apr 17, 6:03am 1493489024

I would have backed the tooth fairy over Nick Smith all these years!

by Property Leader | 28th Apr 17, 6:22pm 1493360530

You might be right. Change the government and if they make the place unlivable people will leave. For me I would prefer to live in a country that is an attractive place where people want to move to.

by Brock Landers | 28th Apr 17, 7:45pm 1493365533

What's with all the doom and gloom at a change of government?

The more competent government on offer will manage immigration better and remove foreign buyers and negative gearing. Might even get some attention put on public transport and the environment with the Greens.

I'd rather live in a healthy prosperous egalitarian society instead of an overcrowded polluted rathole with rampant property speculation. If thats your thing you can of course do us all a favour and move to Shanghai.

Winston will be choosing the next government so might be time to start packing...

by Yvil | 28th Apr 17, 6:14pm 1493360075

A step in the right direction

by Keep It Kiwi | 28th Apr 17, 8:12pm 1493367126

NZ is as beautiful as it is because we haven't had hoards of people here! I reckon it's changing for the worse! Here's what I see on a day to day basis. I'm kind of linked to the real estate industry but not a sales person. From where I live on the shore to Silverdale / Orewa and north to Warkworth I observe land being purchased by Chinese. Lots of it. They develop the land using Chinese builders. Chinese agents then sell the said houses to other Chinese. They seemed to be over represented in the real estate scene. And before I start being accused of xenophobia and the like this is what I'm observing on a daily basis. I had an appraisal done a week ago on my property on the north shore by a Chinese agent. During our meeting they gleefully informed me that Chinese are buying "99%"of property. A real estate friend of mine who does well on the north shore has said over the past few years that up to 95% of his sales go to Chinese. Just my observations...

by zorba - old | 29th Apr 17, 2:08pm 1493431735

And I wonder how many Chinese have been sold 'pups' by their own compatriots !! eg from Boatman below -

by Boatman | Fri, 28/04/2017 - 14:43

Banks are lending money on sky-high sale prices using affordability and not valuations when approving loans, and its contributing to the bubble .

Here's a case in point of a current Mortgagee sale at 21 Chester Ave Greenhithe ( see Barfoots website ) .

Its a noisy piece vacant land abutting the motorway, allows a single dwelling , with a rateable value of just $285,000 and which was sold for over $1,0 million to an Asian speculator who was hoping to either build or flip it

And its gone to custard

I hope the Bank concerned gets burnt , because there is no way in hell that section is worth more than around $500,000 tops , and if they lent more than 80% of that , then its reckless lending .

Banks should be restricted from lending more than 80% of 120% of the GV .

Anything over that should be made up by the buyer .

by NorthernLights | 29th Apr 17, 4:22pm 1493439722

Keep it Kiwi
You are of course right
It does not matter what spin the media or government put on it Chinese investment in Auckland housing has been massive.
Long bay development Chinese Silverdale Millbrook Chinese My own property sold to Chinese Neighbours property Chinese Friends property Chinese. Now I actually love Chinese because in the main they are driven hard working friendly people. However they are running with their money from a communist regime. There's far more wealthy Chinese than NZ could ever handle and yet our government has been negligent handling the influx of capital buying up kiwi family homes Many of which remain vacant unused and purely act as a money storage system. Even the National partiesown members have dealings with Chinese who come to buy and develope property in Auckland . Enough of the crap National speaks otherwise

by Keep It Kiwi | 28th Apr 17, 8:14pm 1493367295

And further to that perhaps if we weren't allowing so many immigrants into this fantastic country then maybe we wouldn't need to chop it like it's going out of fashion!!!

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Apr 17, 8:40pm 1493368838

The reality is that, in these uncertain times, NZ is becoming an increasingly sought-after country to live in.

I reckon we will see large numbers of wealthy foreigners settle in NZ over the next 20 years - perhaps for a longer time horizon.

So, I anticipate property prices will continue to rise (at a steady rate at least).

In the short term, of course, anything can happen to property prices. Interest rates etc do have an impact. But in the longer term, the trend for property prices is almost certainly upward.

Wellington and Auckland are the safest bets for investors.

by Penguin | 28th Apr 17, 10:08pm 1493374093

I know it makes headlines but consents is not a constraining factor from everything I hear from market participants.

by Jay11 | 29th Apr 17, 2:08pm 1493431726

What about more cars on street & log jam issues

by NorthernLights | 29th Apr 17, 4:34pm 1493440468

Jay11
Of course there's issues with more cars & congestion
The motorway system now must clog for hours I am betting
Not planning and open door migration does that
I wouldn't let any of these National politicians fools run a cat shelter