Bayleys Real Estate sold 59% overall at Auckland & Waikato auctions

Property

Low numbers of properties on offer at the latest Bayleys auctions in Auckland and Waikato but almost 60% were sold

8th Jul 17, 6:02am by Greg Ninness

Bayleys Real Estate had an overall sales clearance rate of 59% at their latest Auckland and Waikato auctions, although the number of properties on offer was low.

At the Auckland auctions just 15 properties were offered with sales achieved on nine and six being passed in for sale by negotiation.

Highlights included a modern five bedroom house in Herne Bay that sold for $3.8 million and a renovated, two bedroom freehold apartment in Otahuhu that fetched $454,000.

At the Hamilton auction seven properties were offered, a mix of rural blocks and urban houses, with sales achieved on four and three passed in for sale by negotiation.

The sales included a 14.85 hectare lifestyle block with a three bedroom house on it at Miranda that went for $461,000.

You can see the prices of the urban properties that sold on our Residential Auction Results page, or check out the rural properties on our new Rural/Lifestyle Property Sales page.

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115 Comments

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Jul 17, 2:21pm 1499480505

Today's Leading Comment:

I suspect there will be a marked decline in the number of houses coming on the Auckland market - now that activity has quietened from the heady levels of 2014-16.

But the drop-off in listings (already noted in TradeMe and elsewhere) will help stabilise prices.

As Greg reports, some fine results continue to be achieved. And prices are holding well - most notably in the more affluent suburbs close to the city.

by CJ099 | 8th Jul 17, 11:21am 1499469691

Really I'm not so sure that prices are holding up well in affluent areas; there's evidence points to prices beginning to slip. I just had a look at the first few properties on the latest auction list and compared them to homes.co.nz estimates and found that prices are not holding up well.

* 17 Codrington Crescent, Mission Bay, Auckland. Sold for: $1,862,000
homes.co.nz estimate: Low $1,925,000 and High $2,220,000

* 100 Chelsea View Drive, Chatswood Sold for: $998,000
homes.co.nz estimate: Low: $1,180,000 and High $1,325,000

* 8 Burgess Road, Devonport, Auckland Sold for: $2,300,000
homes.co.nz estimate: Low: $2,240,000 and High $2,560,000

by fat pat | 9th Jul 17, 2:34am 1499524467

If that trend continues we'll eventually see houses selling below CV in Auckland.

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 8:07am 1499544442

Below 2014 CV or 2017 CV?

by RichMuhlach | 8th Jul 17, 8:08am 1499458110

First 3 listings for Auckland Property on TradeMe as of Saturday 8am 8-Jul-2017 are MORTGAGEE LISTINGS

It is quite worrying that there are 9,900+ listings available smack in the middle of winter, when the past few years have been hovering around 6k to 7k. Simple maths tells me that Spring listings will suddenly shoot up to 15k listings, maybe even 20k

https://m.imgur.com/sJXV8hk?r

by CJ099 | 8th Jul 17, 9:29am 1499462957

Very much agree with you Rich and O4. These teeny tiny sales volumes are dragging down the rest of the property markets prices. Vendors are realizing their home will sell but only at a realistic and affordable price. Even Barfoot and Thomson admitted recently that Auckland's prices are falling.

Everyone is now desperately trying to figure out how much their property is really worth now that the overseas investors have gone.

But it's not just NZ that feeling the absence of Chinese Investors, Toronto is also feeling the drop as well as quite a number of other places.

Better Dwelling article: Toronto Real Estate Sets A New Record…But It’s Not The Good Kind
https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-real-estate-sets-a-new-…

by Cowpat | 8th Jul 17, 11:43am 1499471028

RichMuhlach. Thanks for posting the numbers/ charts. Mortgagee listings are the visible signs of underlying stress as months of manoeuvring usually occurs before the ultimate listing, the bank taking full control and advertising as a mortgagee. 7 mortgagee listings for the week in Auckland. Obviously each case will have individual characteristics , feel sorry for the reclad, Auckland prices have plateaued for a year, Interest only loans that provided so much froth on the way up, will over the next year become Auckland's headache.

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 8:37am 1499459832

Yeah rick, auctions have changed so much to a year ago, unbelievable, listing are very high for winter and the election, there'll be a lot of hopefuls hoping that national get in and make a difference but the housing market has lost to much from overseas investors and gone far to high to local wages, there isn't even anything national could do to move the needle, in fact I think bill English would prefer to slowly cool the market, it's not likely they'll get in anyway, so rick yeah 15 to 20000 listing in spring and after the election, may a little less if national get in for a little why'll, then listing well slowly come down with bad sales then stalemate for a number of years , boring, the sooner we get there the better and get over it and start SLOWLY lifting again, I'm thinking a 30% drop in house prices across the board over all of nz to close to the 2007 highs , shame interest rates weren't higher now for a slow drop to help

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 9:51am 1499464274

CJ099, also this 3% chatter of overseas investors which is grap , but even 3% is a large number , definitely large enough to kick a market up from a low giving the opportunity for local investors and speculators to get started, the biggest thing that worries me are all these so ghost houses or houses owned by overseas investors, there's no feeling in these houses, were they payed completely with cash, loans from these new brokerage companies that have since been closed, are the actual houses tired into banks overseas, do they want them even if the market is flat for a period of time, if they drop tho that's the elephant in the room , they could leave as fast as they came into Auckland, that and interest rates been upside down? Scary ,bit of luck just a slow decline

by CJ099 | 8th Jul 17, 10:18am 1499465906

Yes you're quite right to be worried O4. We've already seen in the last few months how dramatically sales have slipped since China's capital flight restrictions that were enforced in January this year. If there were further crack downs then it could lead to a more increased listings.

Apparently a lot of overseas investors are even walking away from their down deposits on new property since it's just too difficult to get hold of the credit they need.

by Yvil | 8th Jul 17, 12:38pm 1499474285

Well that's a surprise, 60% auction clearance in Auckland

by Carlos67 | 8th Jul 17, 3:12pm 1499483570

Don't see a big drop in property, perhaps the scary thing National will do if they get back in and the prices start dropping is to just open the immigration tap further, lets see what 100,000 new immigrants a year will do to keep it rolling. Obviously if you then started targeting those immigrants with plenty of money then why wouldn't you expect to see house prices keep rising ? It's simply a supply and demand issue thats not that hard to control with the stroke of a pen.

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Jul 17, 3:43pm 1499485430

Hi Carlos,

You make a worthy observation.

But even without immigrants, Auckland's population is destined to keep growing at a rapid rate.

Expect to see a bourgeoning apartment market for Auckland in the medium/long term, as land becomes scarcer and evermore expensive.

Stand-alone houses located close to the city have strong upside price potential - especially where they have good-sized sections and are north-facing.

As always, it's DEMOGRAPHICS which drive property markets in the longer term - though some here become agitated at the mere mention of the word......

by nymad | 8th Jul 17, 4:04pm 1499486642

You keep rambling on about population being the main driver for house price inflation?
Where do you get this info from?

Because the evidence doesn't suggest it to be the case. You can read plenty of research into this very topic.
What drives real price inflation are changes in willingness and ability to pay; so, employment rates, wage levels, and financing costs. In addition, the housing stock.
The population is just a secondary factor. We will see this through internal migration factors in the coming years. That is if the impeding credit crisis doesn't completely obliterate Auckland first.

I'd like you to suggest one place in the world where population growth has been the driver of real house price inflation, instead of the mentioned factors.

by J.C. | 8th Jul 17, 4:42pm 1499488973

Perhaps he or she is using a regression analysis. For example, population growth as the independent and house prices as the dependent. You could include other independent variables to determine which variable is the key driver.

You cannot eliminate population growth as a key driver of house prices. Nor can you discount the possibility of Leighton Smith or Mike Hosking being deities.

by nymad | 8th Jul 17, 5:18pm 1499491129

I doubt he is undertaking any regression analysis even as basic as the OLS you allude to.
Plus labour migration isn't an independent variable, with relation to those other factors. So, he has some specification issues to deal with if it is indeed the case.

by J.C. | 9th Jul 17, 2:56pm 1499569012

Population growth is the independent variable and house prices are the dependent in the regression model. But you're right: there is little chance that there is a model or else it would be shared.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 11:21am 1499642479

Sorry, but leave it to the experts.
That would be an exceptionally poorly specified model

by NorthernLights | 9th Jul 17, 3:07pm 1499569624

Know Leighton well no deity......enjoys a drink !

by Double-GZ | 8th Jul 17, 3:41pm 1499485271

Zachary, I've been doing some research this weekend, and here's a list of 8x selected properties sold in July i.e. in the last week in Remuera:

19 Omahu Rd, Remuera
https://nz.hougarden.com/en/19-omahu-road-remuera-auckland-342929

27 Kenny Rd, Remuera
http://feature.harcourts.co.nz/27kenny

31 Entrican Ave, Remuera
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/596957

55 Orakei Road, Remuera
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/597852

2/2 Martin Avenue, Remuera
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/599161

34 Aldred Rd, Remuera
http://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/34-aldred-road-11219931/

16 Haast St, Remuera
http://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/16-haast-street-10809765/

23 Mainston Rd, Remuera - http://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/23-mainston-road-17171606/

Let me know if you want to know the sold prices.

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Jul 17, 3:56pm 1499486205

Hi DGZ,

They look nice properties - and generally very well located.

But the gloom and doom merchants here (of whom there are several) would no doubt have us all believe that they went for rock-bottom prices because the Auckland house market has gone into terminal decline.

Is that true, by chance? Or are the dooms-dayers pulling the wool over our eyes?

Pleased if you would verify.

Thanks, old chap!

by Double-GZ | 8th Jul 17, 4:00pm 1499486407

Hello tothepoint hope you're enjoying your weekend. I just have 3 words for them: THEY ARE DREAMING. FYI the 1st property on the list (19 Omahu Rd) was sold for $6,700,000 a couple of days ago. That's almost 2M over the homes.co highest price point and 100% over the CV. Apparently Zachary often runs by that house on his way up to Mt Hobson.

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Jul 17, 4:58pm 1499489924

Hi DGZ,

Thanks for your response and trust you're also enjoying the weekend!

Clearly, what goes on in this blog is that the dooms-dayers try to turn molehills into mountains. Any inkling of something negative and they will inflate it out of all proportion, in accordance with their relentless agenda to talk down Auckland house prices.

By the way, DGZ, have you read the post above, where a contributor is questioning the relevance/importance of population/demography to housing markets? What an alarming lack of understanding/insight.....

I was going to respond directly to the person but was reminded of my grandfather's wisdom.....

Grandfather said: "Always remember my boy: arguing with a fool only makes you look like one".

by Double-GZ | 8th Jul 17, 4:40pm 1499488805

Chinese property buyers take cautious approach ahead of election.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/94496469/chinese-property-buyers-take-…

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Jul 17, 4:56pm 1499489766

Thanks again DGZ,

Interesting - nearly two-thirds of respondents (64 per cent) now believe that house prices will be stable or rise.

And many of the respondents are apparently Chinese people - by and large a pretty astute group.......

by fat pat | 9th Jul 17, 3:03am 1499526222

An astute group, pfft! - prolific bubble chasers more like. Have you seen what they've done to their own housing market, or to bitcoin, or to the commodities markets, the the Auckland, Sydney, Vancouver housing markets. The sooner the next government bans foreign buyers from buying existing houses the better! They're just parasitically feeding off a generation of New Zealanders and screwing up our lives.

by Bobster | 31st Jul 17, 1:51pm 1501465871

Eh!? Yes, bubble chasers who are likely to have a pretty limited understanding of the local market and who will try to exit at the first sign of serious trouble. Anyone who needs to rely on Chinese language press on the nz market sounds to me like someone who is at he mercy of real estate agents, vendors and other spruikers. They are bubble fodder.

by CJ099 | 9th Jul 17, 11:15am 1499555719

Ha ha that's hilarious thanks for the link DGZ. Yeah I'm sure their all desperately hopeful and wondering how to get hold of some more free credit from overseas?

But I'm sorry to tell you that the Central Auckland paper millionaires are still screwed and will be for the foreseeable future. Have a read of this very recent article from Better Dwelling.

China’s PBoC Announces An Army of Over 400,000 To Prevent Money Laundering
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-pboc-announces-an-army-of-over-400000…

Quote: The PBoC announced new anti-money laundering measures that will likely mean even less money will be leaving the country in the near future. This could mean even more trouble for real estate markets like Vancouver, Auckland, and Sydney that have become dependent on Mainland Chinese buyers.

by RickStrauss | 31st Jul 17, 1:54pm 1501466092

Also highlights an interesting belief in some Auckland investors' minds: that property in NZ is for Chinese buyers, not for locals.

by NorthernLights | 9th Jul 17, 3:08pm 1499569727

Me thinks the spruiker is desperate!

by Eco Bird | 8th Jul 17, 5:00pm 1499490003

Your grandfather was indeed a wise man.

by Hardly | 8th Jul 17, 10:31pm 1499509882

First of all anecdote isn't the plural of data so you can post as many single property love stories as you want.

Second, I don't think it's a given the market will crash but I sure do think it can't rise at 5%+ per annum forever while wages are growing at 2%.

Third, the DGZ is disconnected from the wider market, we can agree on that. But when nearby regions become meaningfully cheaper, they will drag it down.

by CJ099 | 8th Jul 17, 8:12pm 1499501538

I tend to look at the reality of the situation and here are the facts:-

1) Top end buyers have gone since January this year, all you have now are pretty much the odd celeb and money launders.

2) Auction results are at a huge low in recent years in terms of sales volumes and success rates and are deteriorating.

3) Lack of sales will rapidly degrade price (Very basic marketing will confirm that). And even the leading Real Estate Agencies have confirmed that prices are dropping.

4) Auckland paper millionaires are screwed no matter the election results, this is far beyond our control. Much is the folly of selling out your own to Overseas Investors to make a quick buck!

5) Our current Government is so incompetent to rely on a false economy, and can't even acknowledged that there's a housing crisis, that wages have become decoupled from property values in Auckland. Hasn't even bothered to collect tax revenue from Overseas Investors when the rest of the Western World has.

On a positive note: RE's can really help their Vendors and Buyers by dropping their commission rates to 1%.
It's good enough for London RE's, so it's good enough for the likes of you!

by Zachary Smith | 8th Jul 17, 4:56pm 1499489809

Good stuff Double-GZ. I'm always interested in the sold prices. Practically an obsession.

by Double-GZ | 8th Jul 17, 4:59pm 1499489998

The prices aren't high so I'm not sure why they let them go...
34 Aldred Rd $1,950,000
55 Orakei Rd $2,880,000

by Zachary Smith | 8th Jul 17, 5:07pm 1499490453

The Orakei Rd one is above the homes.co low figure and the advert for Aldred Rd says, now it's your turn to decide whether you remodel or rebuild this single level weatherboard home.

Major renovation work will currently knock off at least twice what you think the renovation will cost I reckon.

by Double-GZ | 8th Jul 17, 5:21pm 1499491311

The land of the Aldred Rd house is below the road by quite a margin but still I would have thought the land itself (817sqm) is already worth around $2m as it is just off Vicky Ave i.e. great location. Remember Dan Carter sold his house at 2 Aldred Rd not long ago for $5m?

by NorthernLights | 9th Jul 17, 3:10pm 1499569848

Hilarious !
That 19th floor will prove useful in a few years DD !

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 4:08pm 1499573321

Stop it otherwise I will drag you down with me lol

by Eco Bird | 8th Jul 17, 3:58pm 1499486291

We all know that mortgagee sales as well as desperate ( must sell) sales have never been a measure of any market anytime ... we have also discovered that Home.co.nz estimations proved to be inaccurate in so many areas ( there is an obvious difference in their algorithm compared with Trademe Property valuations which are closer to actual prices) ...
Auckland house prices will start rising again( albeit gradually and smoothly) from October after the elections ... Why? ... because
1- most serious buyers ( foreign and domestic) have done their due diligence and know where the market lies in the areas they want to buy in -- they have been attending tons of auctions and gauging seller prices and expectations through bidding levels. Everyone is waiting for the right moment and the right price - Yes, it is a game of watching the falling knives at present.
2- The dust will settle either way after the election and winter will be over, spring blooms always boosts the positive moral in every market - housing is no exception.
3- All serious smart buyers will then realise that the so called market Crash did not actually eventuate and they will start missing out on any deal that could be available for them if they wait any longer.
4- Brand New homes will be more expensive in 3 months - almost all developers (which are still in the business!) are indicating a price rise end of September or after labour weekend -- a 5% increase on a million $$ house is a significant $50k added to the mortgage.

I think that auction clearance rates will vary till then and we will start to notice a progressive increase in sales volumes going forward ...

by CJ099 | 8th Jul 17, 8:54pm 1499504095

@Eco Bird: "Auckland house prices will start rising again"?? How will they rise again, How? They're already decoupled from wages? Are you relying on foreign buyers by any chance?

Are you expecting the Ozzy and NZ banks to become suddenly reckless and allow mortgages for 19 times income like Hong Kong. I see you are quite happy to enable this level of inequality here Eco Bird. http://all-that-is-interesting.com/cage-homes-hong-kong

Shame on YOU!!

by NZXY | 8th Jul 17, 4:01pm 1499486482

Remmers is almost irrelevant - it's always been a market on it's own terms with new money wanting to rub shoulders with old money. That Chatswood sale tells the real story. This has been a favourite with Chinese buyers since the early 2000s - a sale under $1 Mil definitely hints at a pressured sale.

by J.C. | 8th Jul 17, 4:46pm 1499489183

Chatswood is a depressing place. The whole area reeks of emptiness and is void of anything interesting. But yes, it is a rung of suburban actualization.

by Zachary Smith | 8th Jul 17, 5:03pm 1499490188

The headline in the advert for that house says, "Bring your Builder...UK Seller says Sell". Could that be significant?

https://www.bayleys.co.nz/Listing/Auckland/North-Shore/Chatswood/1450862

by J.C. | 8th Jul 17, 5:21pm 1499491269

The headline in the advert for that house says, "Bring your Builder...UK Seller says Sell". Could that be significant?

In a statistical sense, no. But it possibly could mean something among the "it-makes-sense-to-me" approach to insights school (the vast majority of people). For them, "significant" is not used to describe much beyond their gut feeling.

by tothepoint - d… | 8th Jul 17, 5:24pm 1499491452

Just thinking I might take time out to watch the rugby test tonight.

But I doubt the scrumming will be as intense as I witness here.......

by Zachary Smith | 8th Jul 17, 5:34pm 1499492067

The test venue has free wi-fi so there's no need for game goers to miss out.

by JohnSmith | 8th Jul 17, 6:55pm 1499496959

Editor .. why is DBZ/Zach/Tothepoint etc NOT a banned from this site for fakery and using multiple logins. This is becoming a joke and a lot better f people will start to use other sites and laugh and this one. Seriously if you don't do something soon you will be a laughing stock.

by JohnSmith | 8th Jul 17, 6:55pm 1499496959

by RichMuhlach | 8th Jul 17, 8:04pm 1499501071

Add 'modestwhisper' to another one of those aliases

by Zachary Smith | 8th Jul 17, 8:16pm 1499501783

And Eco Bird. Narabeen Boy is suspect too and Carlos67, what about Carlos67?

by Eco Bird | 9th Jul 17, 2:16pm 1499566574

Thanks ... Not sure how to respond really ! But I am happy to be counted among the renegades ...

I have promised myself not to respond or discuss this issue with shallow and narrow minded commentators who could not hold a decent discussion or exchange a viewpoint - their blunt bias and single sided focus is preventing them from even listening objectively to a different reading or analysis. It is Sad that some revert to disrespect and insult at times.... maybe some anger management therapy would help in these cases.

I for one, would like the market to come down as much as possible - I need to help my own FHBs to buy theirs - But wishful thinking alone does not bring prices down, nor will putting my head in the sand and stop seeing things as they are.

It is also sad that the anti camp are stuck with selected data and reports, or some misleading articles written by like minded people all around the world while shutting down, and missing on, the opportunity of listening to a different ( somehow more realistic) view and analysis.

by CJ099 | 9th Jul 17, 2:20pm 1499566818

"I need to help my own FHBs to buy theirs"?? No you're not an RE are you Eco Bird! I think you've just been caught red hand as they say. :)

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 2:22pm 1499566973

CJ099 you call everyone who has opposing viewpoint a RE agent. No one can escape your paws!

by CJ099 | 9th Jul 17, 6:47pm 1499582875

Oh come on DGZ we know that this is a very obvious website for RE's to troll Investors and convince FTB's that it's safe to buy in a falling market, which of course we know is extremely high risk of negative equity at the moment.

Eco Bird and other users such as: 'Tothepoint' we're very much aware of and are highly likely to be RE's and give themselves away very easily as Eco Bird has done in their comment; Quote: "I need to help my own FHBs to buy theirs". Why would anyone say that unless they were an Real Estate Agent.

They can protest as much as they like but is extremely obvious what they are.

Hey most commenters on this site suspect that you and Zachary are one in the same.

by NorthernLights | 9th Jul 17, 3:12pm 1499569932

Please get a grip on your emotions DubleD
Rational thought not spruiking please

by Cowpat | 9th Jul 17, 2:50pm 1499568607

'The renegades.' That is funny.The fastest growing religion in Auckland is real estate and your the renegade.When you start kicking over the open home signs or drawing beards on agents photo's you shall pass into the world of the renegade leaving the cult behind.

by blue meanie | 9th Jul 17, 3:21pm 1499570490

http://nzh.tw/11887512 Discuss this! Tothepoint/Ecobird... Auckland housing prices peaked a year ago. "What we have seen is just more homes sitting on the market and that number is now about 60 per cent higher than what it was a year ago so the demand and supply balance is certainly shifting with more properties available for viewing and giving buyers a lot more choice." But then the he is just a Chief Economist from a major bank... you might just be the "shallow and narrow minded commentator" you accuse others of being. Ginganinjas rebuff to you remains extant!

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 3:30pm 1499571041

I watched the video clip and they all agree that the YoY prices are still up by over 7%. It is the sales volume that is making an adjustment not the price, so yeah the average value for Auckland is still lingering around the peak level at $1.045m. This is not falling through the floor and screwed up as some of you put it. Thank you.

by CJ099 | 9th Jul 17, 6:43pm 1499582624

Actually DGZ, Blue Meanie is indeed correct Auckland is shifting to be a 'buyers market', and here is the evidence from Barfoot and Thompson to prove it.

Interest article: Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price now back down to where it was 12 months ago
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/88635/barfoot-thompsons-median-sell…

Article Quote: The low numbers of homes being sold in Auckland are finally causing prices to fall, according to Auckland's largest real estate agency Barfoot & Thompson.

The average selling price was $913,606 compared to its record high of $968,570 in March and only $5000 above the June 2016 average of $908,343.
...

Please note that this data is also supported in the video clip showing Auckland's average prices currently at $913,606, (Medium price $840,000).

So not sure where you’re getting your figures from to suggest the average price is still over a million for Auckland, are you sure that’s not just your wishful thinking?

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 6:49pm 1499582958

Qv.

by RichMuhlach | 9th Jul 17, 7:01pm 1499583698

real estate agent

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 9:12pm 1499591536

Are you saying you are a RE agent? Coz I am not.

by CJ099 | 9th Jul 17, 8:20pm 1499588448

DGZ have you got the Qv link to provide as evidence? Otherwise we're going to have to take it as your wishful thinking.

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 9:09pm 1499591359

No I don't but interest.co.nz has one:
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/88616/there-are-plenty-options-peopl…

by Eco Bird | 10th Jul 17, 12:44am 1499604263

I watched the video too, and both guests agree indeed that prices are still up by over 7.1% compared to June last year (QV numbers) ... maybe you will reach the same conclusion if you watched the video again calmly ! - sales numbers are down , prices? Not yet .. average Auckland prices did NOT change in the last 3 months (0.00%) - Hence I (we) beg to differ.
And thank you for the rest of your compliments, they just prove my point.

by CJ099 | 10th Jul 17, 9:27am 1499635646

Naturally if you compair sales figures at around their peak from June 2016 to at their current low June 2017 of course this will make the market appear flat.

by Carlos67 | 10th Jul 17, 5:29am 1499621378

Do you want my real name ? I'm one of the very few people who use my real full name on a couple of other forums. Never had a problem with it, in fact the whole "anonymous" thing creates problems with people abusing one another. You tend to moderate your posts when others know who you are and can find you using Google pretty quickly.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 6:18am 1499624339

Sorry Carlos67, I was just having a bit of fun with those that claim all pro-property commenters are one. I like Internet anonymity because it means people can express a thought a bit more bluntly and honestly than in real life. These days a word or an idea if proven to come from someone in particular could be used against them for political advantage if they were running for election or held an important position.

by Double-GZ | 10th Jul 17, 6:53am 1499626391

Carlos I like your name. I know of a few Carlos all from SA. Nice name. ;-)

by Hardly | 8th Jul 17, 10:35pm 1499510123

I enjoy their posts even if I sometime disagree.

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 7:27pm 1499498872

Yeah on and on about the 1% of Auckland houses from 2 to 6 million as if they even had one and mattered to the 99% of houses $500,000 to $2million that the rest of Aucklands have worried about the future, selfish and big headed to the max, you could feel sorry maybe if it is only one person with a really lot to lose tho

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jul 17, 6:32am 1499538732

I must point out that this article is about Bayleys auctions in Auckland and Waikato. In the body of the article we see, Highlights included a modern five bedroom house in Herne Bay that sold for $3.8 million.

DGZ, tothepoint and myself are 'on topic'.

by J.C. | 9th Jul 17, 2:16pm 1499566617

I think that you're more likely trolling under multiple guises. I don't think you've got much that is insightful or witty. Feel free to surprise me.

by General HubHub | 9th Jul 17, 8:17pm 1499588274

You've got it JC. Zac and DGZ are one. Tothepoint and Ecobird are one. Is there a connection between the two 'ones'? Could they all be one angry old man smashing his keyboard?

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 9:14pm 1499591665

We are 4x individuals. I know Zachary and I aren't RE agents and tothepoint is unlikely to be one either. Not sure about Ecobird though.

by Eco Bird | 10th Jul 17, 12:21am 1499602884

:) ... I am certainly not a RE agent ... but that sounds a bit better than Nat payed agent, or Darklord money launderer Speculator etc.... these guys think that by using some failing media tactics of discrediting others ( or so they think) would win them some passionate audience or help them prove a point - quite an amateurish technique really which is laughable to say the least.

We could be old men - but certainly not smashing keyboards. ...
I don't think any of us is trying to prove or talk up any price or market - and that is very obvious from our posts, it's just that our analysis of the same published data is Different
Is that so difficult to understand?

by CJ099 | 10th Jul 17, 9:46am 1499636786

Really Eco Bird. We simply don"t believe you. Do you mind explaining to us then what you meant in your earlier comment. Quoting you: "I need to help my own FHBs to buy theirs"?
That's a very odd thing to say unless you're a Real Estate Agent referring to your first home buying clients. So sorry but you have given yourself away as an RE. :)

by Eco Bird | 10th Jul 17, 12:17pm 1499645876

I don't care what you believe, ... you obviously have a very short memory and so obsessed with your small world that you hardly remember another conversation we had not that long ago on this subject.... Not that I owe you or others any explanation, but as I said before that I have two sons late 20s early 30s who are FHBs and looking to buy their own homes in Auckland (with a bit of help).... was that too hard to understand or digest? you might like to revisit your RE phobia and obsession !!

I also said to you, wait till October and we shall revisit our discussion again - but you seem to be very impatient.... Does that ring a bell now?

I wonder why are you so interested in this subject ??

by Double-GZ | 10th Jul 17, 12:46pm 1499647561

Yeah I find him very RE agent obsessed indeed. It's not nice feeling to be accused a RE agent while you are clearly not one but at least I am not alone here. By the way I am typing this at my desk at work in the CBD which has nothing to do with RE.

by CJ099 | 10th Jul 17, 3:39pm 1499657944

@Eco Bird, No I don't ever remember that you mentioned having children. Frankly I still don't believe you. But yes October is looking really interesting in terms of the way the market is headed. I'll be more than happy to rub your nose in it then and tell you I told you so. We all know how this one is going to play out. :)

by Eco Bird | 10th Jul 17, 7:44pm 1499672677

No you won't remember !! - stuck with your very selective memory,.... and frankly I dont care what you believe ...

I can point you to a good Vodka brand which will help drowning your sorrow for selling your rentals last year ... (if that was even true !! ) ... drinking it off is less painful than kicking yourself.

Oh BTW, October is looking more and more on fire especially with the increased chances that the Nats are coming back as recent polls are showing.... :) then you will see some real fireworks...:)

by CJ099 | 10th Jul 17, 9:33pm 1499679221

@National Bird. Ha ha! See you've just given yourself away yet again, first you want prices to go up, then down supposedly to help your children to buy their first homes and now you want prices to be "on fire" as you say. Have you been drinking? That's all we need a drunk RE. You may want to cut down on your Vodka that you mentioned. Personally I don't touch the stuff. :)

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jul 17, 8:24pm 1499588676

Thanks for the feedback J.C.

by Double-GZ | 9th Jul 17, 7:25am 1499541903

We're commenting on the property market in Auckland which is relevant to this article. Also in regards to 'as if they even had one...' *Ahem* how about more than one? Nuff said.

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 7:46pm 1499500010

It least people need facts, and fair advice to way up there direction, Im sure they'll find it even it they have to read and push aside some comments that could be risky , these comments would never be seen by that many People that would ever matter, but if one person, one , could see the risks to buying now compared to just holding of for a little must be helpful , helpful to the 99%

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 8:08pm 1499501320

Yvil

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 8:43pm 1499503423

Great knowledge for the 99 CJ099, and a billion dollars down on investors mortgages, that's the why, The what might happen over the next year is the next challenge, when housing goes down even a little all sorts of ugly information can come out, brokerage companies, following some of this dept

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 8:53pm 1499503993

CJ099 don't waste your time mate , everyone knows about your facts and knowledge of this topic, fact less comments don't sink in they are just worried because they are the ones holding the property, maybe in a year or two we could run a raffle to help them out, it's about helping people, all people

by CJ099 | 8th Jul 17, 9:01pm 1499504461

Thanks O4 but I know we have to keep reminding them and bring fresh evidence to the table every day. I'm looking out the the First Time Buyers and our real economies.

by O4 normal | 8th Jul 17, 9:17pm 1499505446

Me to, I'm all for houses slowly going up with wages, like houses going up from 1960 to now, but every 10 years we have these up and flattening periods, that's ok but all we seem to do is keep pushing over time, 2 x wages for a house, 3 , then 2 wages needed then 4 then 5 and so on, now we seem to hit a barrier at around 5 to 7 x wages, so when we let in outside influences and don't keep things from going stupid it's very upsetting, and personally a waste of time, there is only one way to fix this 5 to 7 barrier, a men a wife and one more, haha sorry I couldn't help myself

by RichMuhlach | 8th Jul 17, 10:16pm 1499508996

During the GFC when Auckland house prices last declined, here are the historical Mortgagee listings:

March 2008 at 211
March 2009 at 606

Life comes at you fast.

http://www.interest.co.nz/node/45535

by Jafalad | 10th Jul 17, 7:44am 1499629471

Hot off press: sold my two bed unit (59m2) in Onehunga last night via Harcourts auction. In the four week campaign over 60 buyers came through with six diffferent bidders at the auction. Sold for $511,000. Not too sure that prices are falling yet and the buyers are certainly still out there and I'm seeing a few more investors out there too.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 8:15am 1499631331

Jafalad, if it is the one I think it is that was a good buy for someone. Hopefully a win-win there for you and them. An investor would be interested as if you can rent it out for $500 it would be a modest positive yield right from the get go. Nice location too.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 8:40am 1499632810

I'm sorry, but what would the modest positive yield be?
If an investor bought it, it is most likely that there is zero net yield on those numbers.
More likely than not, said investor will be very sad in the next year when he finds out that he has factored too much capital gain into his bid price.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 9:01am 1499634115

It's getting roughly 5% (Good for Central Auckland) which is better than a bank deposit. If an investor had a $1.5M rental he could sell that and buy three of these and get $1,500 a week. It's in a good location and in a popular price range. Someone thinking about buying a home for their kids to have in the future could secure it with minimal to no outlay or running costs by taking advantage of tax deductions while they wait for their kids to grow up.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 9:35am 1499636106

He's not getting 5% net yield, though. Perhaps gross, but that's a pretty dumb way to compare things.
I thought even you would be smart enough to not base an argument on that, ZS.
He has financing costs and asset related costs which would eat all of that rental income received.

He is essentially getting zero net period yield so any gain is expected to be through capital appreciation.
A stupid way to invest at this stage of the cycle.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 10:10am 1499638217

My figures are what is determining the price of that property currently. It requires confidence in Auckland which a lot of people have.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 10:33am 1499639624

Stuff like this really shows why property investment gets the rap of being a simple man's investment.

by kermit42 | 10th Jul 17, 10:13am 1499638404

The yield is about 4%. Based on $500 per week rent, less $50 property manager, less $50 for rates and insurance, so around 4% (assuming zero vacancy) if the property was purchased for cash. If purchased using an interest only 100% mortgage (secured against other property) then the property would cover most but not all of the mortgage interest at current interest rates of 4.5%-5.0%.The investor would need to cover a cash shortfall of around $50-$100 per week.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 10:31am 1499639501

A "Mom&Pop" buyer could secure this property for their children and basically lock the price in for negligible to no outlay currently due to the tax rules. Generally a lump of cash will be put in as a "Mom&Pop" will have it just kicking around with them both working full time. If the property keeps up with inflation of, say, 2% then it will gain 10K a year. If that real cash deposit is 100K then that is a true 10% return. It's not without risk of course.
Generally it is a long term plan. First few years outlaying a small amount and then getting more and more positive over time as incomes grow and rent increases but that initial purchase price never changes. It's a good thing to do for your kids or as a retirement option. Maybe not good for the wider community, but you know, FHBs do want property price inflation too.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 10:38am 1499639930

"Generally a lump of cash will be put in as a "Mom&Pop" will have it just kicking around with them both working full time. If the property keeps up with inflation of, say, 2% then it will gain 10K a year. If that real cash deposit is 100K then that is a true 10% return."

You do understand what general inflation means, right?

You do know the idea behind investing money is to maximise wealth, right?

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 11:48am 1499644131

Sometimes you can be too clever I think. Clever-silly I think its called.

the idea behind investing money is to maximise wealth

No, you are actually wrong about that.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 11:49am 1499644194

Phrase it how you like.
However, there is nothing clever about basing an argument for investment on an asset when period yield is net zero and you assume capital appreciation to be equal to general inflation.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Jul 17, 12:08pm 1499645296

Simple rule of thumb, if the interest on the total price is less than the rent then it is a good buy for investor or home owner.

by nymad | 10th Jul 17, 12:30pm 1499646611

With that comment of yours, I rest my case.

by Eco Bird | 10th Jul 17, 12:31pm 1499646679

Hi Zach, I think you are wasting your breath ... Obviously Nymad , like many others here, has no idea about property investing and its vision and benefits .. it is clear that he simply does not understand investing in this asset class and keeps counting dollars and cents... to the point of calling thousands of property investors in Auckland "dumb"..

by Chairman Moa | 10th Jul 17, 1:19pm 1499649570

Sounded like a cut'n'paste from Dean Leftus (Property Guru)???

by MisterB | 31st Jul 17, 7:36pm 1501486600

how dare he imply investing is about dollars and cents.

wait, what?

by Double-GZ | 10th Jul 17, 8:29am 1499632168

So good to hear that there are loads of buyers out there prowling. Even in the high end market in DGZ, there are at least 5-6 bidders vying for a good quality property at any one time. I know it is true coz I regularly attended these auctions especially when they're onsite. Thanks for sharing Jafalad!

by Chairman Moa | 10th Jul 17, 12:11pm 1499645495

LOL, this story has way more spin than the latest fidget spinner!

by MisterB | 31st Jul 17, 7:37pm 1501486667

And that's why sales numbers are through the roof, breaking records, with all that frenzied demand.

by NZXY | 10th Jul 17, 11:51am 1499644308

Jalalad - more info needed on the unit: Duplex? In a block (unit tile)? Freestanding? Garaging? Body Corp fees? Parking/Garaging? Outlook etc etc. Many variables on a 2 bedroom unit. Having said that it does sound like a good price for the buyer.

by Jafalad | 10th Jul 17, 5:24pm 1499664263

Crosslease unit in a block of 10. No garage and a leaky roof. Carport. Was being rented out for $490/week. Body Corp $1600.

by JohnfromtheTron | 10th Jul 17, 7:44pm 1499672644

Why are you using data from Bayleys Waikato? Bayleys are the smallest player in the Hamilton residential market and in the Waikato mainly do rural sales."At the Hamilton auction seven properties were offered" One was in Miranda which is 90 km from Hamilton!!! If you want to compare "apples with apples" you should use data from one of the large Hamilton Real Estate companies.