Buyer demand for Auckland properties is lower than in any other region in the country and new listings and prices have also tumbled, says realestate.co.nz

The Auckland property market is looking a bit rough.

Buyer interest is lower for residential properties in Auckland than for any other region of the country, according to realestate.co.nz.

The residential property market finished winter on a particularly slow note in most parts of the country, but Auckland has been especially badly affected, according to the latest figures from the property website.

"Nationally, there has been a fall in new listings, static asking prices and muted demand," Realestate.co.nz said in its August report.

Across the entire country new listings on the website were down 17.5% in August compared to July, average asking prices were down 1.7% and demand (measured as the average number of online views per listing) was down 8.5%.

New listings were lower in all regions of the country compared to last year except for Hawke's Bay and the West Coast, which posted slight gains.

There were particularly large falls in new listings in the Waikato, where they fell from 894 in August last year to 687 in August this year, and in the Bay of Plenty where they dropped from 808 in August last year to 588 in August this year.

However average asking prices have held up reasonably well in those regions. 

Buyer interest lower in Auckland than in any other region

But the Auckland market appears to be particularly badly affected on all fronts.

The average asking price in Auckland was $933,502 in August, down $28,694 from a May peak of $962,196.

The average asking price for Auckland properties on the website is now at its lowest point since September last year.

New listings in Auckland were down 22.7% in August compared to August last year, and buyer interest is lower in Auckland than in any other region of the country.

According to Realesate.co.nz, demand for Auckland properties, measured as average views per listing, was down 23.9% in August compared to a year ago, putting the region at the very bottom of the demand table.

"The Auckland market appears to have lost its shine when it comes to buyer interest," realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Taylor said.

In Wellington new listings dropped form 795 in August last year to 667 in August this year, but the average asking price hit an all time high of $579,243.

In Canterbury new listings dropped from 1268 in August last year to 1173 in August this year, while the average asking price of $490,235 was only slightly below the record high of $496,715 set in May.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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195 Comments

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Today's Leading Comment:

Frankly, a fall of $28,694 in the average asking price in Auckland since the May peak is peanuts.

It's a very small fraction of the gain recorded during the last market upswing.

In any case, some of it can no doubt be attributed to the uncertainty created by the forthcoming election.

Nothing too remarkable in today's headline.

Business as usual........

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am looking forward to you being taxed on all that unearned capital gain. It is going to be marvellous knowing your once tax free money is going to go into improving the lives of 260 000 children and the betterment of NZ. It's going to be heartwarming to see young hard working Kiwis protected from your rental price gouging. As foreign buyers realise the NZ property market is no longer the protected rort it has been under National and put there money elsewhere, your cold damp rentals will lose their value. Paying less rent and with more houses on the market, young hard working Kiwis will be able to buy affordable homes. They won't mind fixing them up after years of neglect from you the once landlord.
And while you bemoan how your once protected money rort is no more, calling people 'clowns' and 'fools', young hard working Kiwis will be paying off affordable mortgages, spending money on their families, rather than giving it to you so you can buy more properties and gloat how amazing and smart you are. I am looking forward to that.

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Are you John Campbell? He says Marvellous a lot. Funny thing is that probably like you he has never come to my wife's decile 2 school to read to the children. She reports that children in difficult home environments are very well supported by services with the social investment program being a great idea. No child goes hungry in her school. An inconvenient truth?

So Bill English is making up the 260 000 children in poverty? That's TWO HUNDRED AND SIXTY THOUSAND! So which is the inconvenient truth, your theory or the Prime Minister's one you hold so dear?

He likely hasn't costed his 100,000 out of poverty target grudgingly agreed to the other night, that's for sure.

Taxinda said 290,000. I can't find a reference to BE stating 260,000. I did find this though, "HOW MANY KIWI KIDS LIVE IN POVERTY?

There was some disagreement on Monday night over how many children live in poverty, which largely came down to the measures the leaders were referring to.

Leaders debate moderator Patrick Gower led the discussion on child welfare saying one in seven Kiwi kids were "materially deprived". While discussing policies, English and Ardern disagreed on the number of children living in poverty. The former said there were 155,000, the latter 290,000.

"That's not correct," English responded. "It's not 290,000."

Ardern didn't bite back, possibly because while they were both technically correct, English was more correct.

According to Unicef New Zealand, "as many as 28 per cent of New Zealand children - about 295,000 - currently live in poverty".

That's using the measurement of relative income poverty, with Unicef saying 19.8 per cent of New Zealand children live in a household with an income lower than 60 per cent of the median.

But the Child Poverty Monitor - a partnership project between the Children's Commissioner, the JR McKenzie Trust and Otago University - is the measure of material hardship introduced into Government reporting in 2015.

With regards to "material hardship", it says 14 per cent of Kiwi kids live in households that go without seven or more things they need for their wellbeing (from a list of 17) - that's 155,000 kids."

A visit to my wife's school would show you that Poverty defined by income is a very narrow measure when it doesn't list the support given to those families.

Yet God Forbid we should ever accuse adults of having children they can't afford to care for. Instead we must blame government¿

EX Expat.Grow up

Just talking to my 9 year old daughter who attends a decile 2 school. She forgot her lunch money and was given a free lunch (shameless). Chicken and mayo sandwich and a gingerbread man. Breakfast club runs every day - a free breakfast for all. Local supermarkets sponsor I believe.

John Campbell has done a lot for the community and he doesn't brag about it So there !
What's left in NZ as far as investigative journalism goes ?
At least Campbell Live strived to uncover the wrongs in society
As for property investment the trend is a lowering of capital value for at least awhile
Or you can adopt the spruikers clarion cry that all is well ! Ha!

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Well said BM. Without the candy crack of overseas money why would one pay what is probably twice the rate you should have to.

Just like Winter, change is coming.

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If you want to own (or rent) a house but, like me, you despair at buying in Auckland, then you might take the opportunity to look elsewhere. It's called cutting your cloth to suit, or living within your means. No government is going to hand you a home on a platter.

There are far more affordable houses in the provinces. Time spent exploring opportunities (training/retraining, jobs, housing etc) in a positive way is more productive than moaning.

There are good opportunities in NZ for "young hard-working kiwis" and even for older hard-working kiwis. Make no mistake about it.

Not very practical if you work in certain larger industries like the Tech world. Fine if you're an RE, by the way didn't you say that you were moving out of Auckland tothepoint, so when are you going?

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I work in that tech world. Live in a small town and work remotely. Fibre :)

Well I work in the technology too but since I've progressed career wise and have to manage people, I can't work from home. If you're a programmer working from home that's doable but it will mostly limit you in your career developed.
Plus working remotely makes you far less job secure, contractors tend to get the boot far quick then on site staff.

CJ, posting on interest.co.nz does not qualify you as "working in technology"

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Yeah it doesn't qualify you as an architect either Yvil as you claim to be. Besides I do most of my postings on the train to and from work. :)

Well at lest with a property decline Investors look to other industries like mine rather than building properties that aren't selling. Times must be tough for you Yivl.

I've heard Yvil is a first-rate architect.

And Yvil is successful and prosperous.

CJ099 Don't let the foolish econbird & yvil get to you
So many draftsmen call themselves architects & of those that actually obtained a architecture degree few are proficient at drafting plans !
Such childishness from the spruikers who are unevovled and frankly boring

hi Yvil, you are wasting your time arguing with "managers" !! :) ..

You have a valid point, in my case I recently relocated from Christchurch to Masterton and purchased a 3 Bedroom house with a 700m3 section for $210,000, walk 5 minutes to the train station and commute to Wellington for work. The days are long, but it means my wife can stay at home with the baby much longer and the interest dollars on our mortgage are considerably less.

I wasn't keen on the idea, but after weighing everything up it was the best decision to make for my family's future.

And good on you for doing that - that is clever and positive thinking

I did the same thing once, of course I quickly discovered why some areas are so cheap, and decided the extra money was worth it, to live in a more '''desirable''' neighborhood.

Nothing wrong with Masterton if you don't mind travelling elsewhere for a decent paying job.

bet you save a bunch on your home and contents insurance bill as well compared to Christchurch

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You seem to do quite a bit of moaning tothepoint/Eco Bird and once again have resorted to name calling when outwitted by someone smarter than you, who cares a wee bit more about their fellow Kiwis, rather than just bludging money from them in rent. You contribute absolutely NOTHING to society, you drain people of their hard earned money and then whinge because you think Labour might do the same to you. You are so greedy, your answer is to move hard working New Zealanders out of the business hub of the South Pacific. That is your 'intelligent' response?!
You are the doom and gloomer, you want to take it all and you prey on people who require the basics for existence ie a roof over ones head. Hardly the stuff of sweetness and light ay?

Oh please, give us a break with your contribute nothing to society. We all go to work everyday and better still we use PT to help ease Auckland traffic.

The bit of you that goes to work perhaps contributes to society, the landlording bit doesn't, in fact if you receive any rent via accommodation benefits, you subtract from it.

lol, Assuming that all renters are on AS , huh?? such narrow mindedness is just appalling !! there are over 1,5M people who rent in NZ ( about 33% of households) ... are they all on AS ?? how silly and how low can this discussion go I wonder ??

All my tenants are professional hardworking people who do not want to buy and happy to rent - and that is their personal choice - I believe that lodging people on the benefit is the state's or some NGO's responsibility.

So I am not surviving on Gov subsidies, and like thousands of other Landlords pay my taxes like any other person according to the prevailing tax laws !!

Next BS ...??

Wtf? You're making even less sense than you usually do. You're laughing out loud and quoting meaningless numbers and acronyms... take a chill pill man! Look for good things you can do for your fellow human. Be kind, be polite, give of yourself. You'll feel a whole lot better about the world.

All the exercise I need is rolling my eyes at your inane and gloating comments. Reckon the Auckland Marathon will be a breeze.
Get out there Zac/DZg (whatever) raise that rent of your hard working tenants, you know you want to, they enjoy it and it makes you feel better.

Shouldn't you be fixing a rental door DubleD ?
Ha!

Public transport suits the ex Post & Telegraph worker you are DubleD ! Very lowly !

Dear tothepoint
Robert Jones expounded that you should only buy investment property in Auckland & Wellington
He preferred commercial property & hence Wellington office buildings because govt depts took up so much of the available office sq footage demand was high in Wellington like in Auckland.
No mention of provinces except to not invest there

hey, wait one second. Read the article, or at least read the headline. This is not a market with capital gains in it. This is a market with capital losses in effect.

What happened until last year was Len Brown (Labour) cut off land supply to jack up prices with great big unearned rent-seeking capital gains for investors. And now just as the market turns Jacinda Ardern (Labour) are going to bring in a Capital Loss Rebate to give more unearned rent-seeking capital to investors.

Don't vote Labour.

Here Here blue meanie, I could not have said it better myself.

Blue meanie the reality is landlords will not pay Capitol Gains Tax because they will not sell, they will also keep putting rents up to cover increased costs put in place by Taxcinda

Who cares about the old landlords. The housing market is heaps bigger at one time than the few old landlords. The markets will simply move in the direction it needs to go. Put it this way but I'm exaggerating to make the point. A guy moves to ozzy and a guy buys his house for $400k. Now that's the price of the street if there's no other sales. A guy buys a rental for $200k and so rents it a little cheaper to get a good tenant because he can. Then 20000 more people do the same thing over the next few years. A market doesn't need the old landlords who may have paid to much. It simply moves on.

The Capital Gains tax will be grandfathered so will only apply to new purchases, so prior purchases will only be subject to the 2 year brightline test if applicable.

One again we have hard working kiwis, so bloody what? You can work hard stacking shelves or building the next rocket ship navigation computer, Auckland house prices are cheap compared to global standards as most people in big cities live in apartments and property outside of Auckland is dead cheap

But they are not cheap compared to local wages, i.e. affordable. So I take it your will be buying housing in Detroit it's dirt cheap (there is always a cheaper market)

http://time.com/3478199/trade-iphone6-for-detroit-house/

People seem to use this argument but when asked if they have any intention of buying overseas they go quiet. A naive investor compares their home town market with the market they are buying. You have to ask what the locals can afford otherwise you are just pumping up the market - that generally doesn't work when the tide changes......

Oh dear key west
If you actually lived in keywest you'd be leaving it right now with Hurricane Irma coming!
You need to travel more as your statement that "Auckland is dead cheap" is frankly rubbish
Auckland has appeared in various media as a "speculative bubble" Where have you been ? It's common knowledge. Nobody anywhere in NYC is saying to me that where I came from has "dead cheap property" Laughable keywest now go board up the house if you actually live there !

Yawn.... just checked Trademe; 1865 properties currently listed in Auckland in the $400k-$600k bracket, nonsense there are no options. Might just have to (like most hard working kiwi's that own a home or two) start small and climb the ladder... oh and stop whinging.

Take out all the sections, houses listed in the wrong price brackets (auctions are especially bad for this), leasehold homes, re-clads needed, meth houses (strange that they don't mention these in the listing) and you don't have many left. And $600k is not affordable to a low-income household, especially one with children.

welcome to the real world kiwimm.. in any first world country you would stuggle to find low income households buying houses and if they do, they buy the do ups you mention above and suck it up. I am so sick of the waa waa on here, how unfair life is BS; someone has to say it and here I am. There is NOTHING wrong with renting, if you save your money and invest wisely elsewhere you can have a prosperous life, and many do. Its just every man and his dog thinks its his god given right to own a nice home and white picket fence and it should be handed to him. Life doesn't work like that, you can't have it all mate.

This is a fantasy world, not the real one. A world where property investors can force the poor and young to not only pay their income but also the tax burden via income tax while the investors makes gains tax free. You must be dreaming if you think these are good affordable homes.

...that makes no sense, sorry. Where would all these poor bleeding people you speak of live if it were not for investors?

In their own homes, as they used to, in the time before investors.

Lol. You'd be going back to the days we lived in caves to get to a time before landlords. You know what else sucks in life? Disease, poverty, child trafficking... the fact people need to rent is a whole lot of first world problem drivel to me... keep crying though, Jacinda will save you all.

Prior to the mid eighties, you had the odd person that had a block of flats here and there, you had the odd stand alone house that was rented, but by and large after a short period of flatting with a few mates, the biggest majority of people bought their own homes soon after marriage.
I was around to see the rise of the culture that exists today, of every man and his dog aspiring to be a landlord, it was basically UNHEARD OF in my young adulthood. I guess you are too young to remember such a time.
I would like to see we adjust laws and regulations to again favour that or if we must accept far more people renting for life, then I want to see the availability of leases similar to Germany.

Prior to the mid 80s NZ was a country town on the world map but now it is part of a global network with world class cities. That is the fundamental change & with that comes the good (stronger economy, more opportunity, tourism) and the not so good in the form of foreign investment and capitalism. I'd be happy local kiwis have become landlords and not all foreigners. I am too young to remember but not too silly to admit we're never going back to the good ol days, progression is inevitable.

And we can progress to decent housing and more home ownership, eh?

That's 'regression' but I'd argue we never did build decent houses in this country

Oh well look at this way then, getting rid of landlording as a "thing" will be progress. As you say, things change, so why not that. We built houses according to how we built houses then. Landlording has nothing to do with that changing, nothing whatsoever.
And as I said, if we are to accept renting as a thing, then we have to change laws to better fit that, as the ones we have were to suit when we did only rent as we did prior to the mid eighties. Again, progress and all.

Not sure if you are serious or absentminded or what?... because you started sounding like someone living under a rock since the 1980s and suddenly woke up in planet X !!

We DO NOT, CAN'T, and WILL NOT go back to your mid eighties ... that era is GONE ... so better wake up and get over your rosy dream !!... Neither Jacinda Luther King Jr. or any one of your Trade Union Mates could turn the clock back no matter how wide, fancy, wild, silly, or ridiculous their Vision is !! ..today's life has realities and constraints ... both Social and Economical !! the best we can do is to make (almost) everyone happy ... NOT EQUAL ...... so get over it !!

Next BS ??

Sorry, why shouldn't we dis-incentivise residential property investment? You know, people buying existing houses to rent them out.

Nothing is stopping people from buying houses mate ! there are thousands of properties between 400 - 600 k in auckland , where are the buyers ??.... the property investment incentive comes from DEMAND for rent and returns ... the later is so much down today that it is not even worth thinking about investment ATM, the demand for rent is still high .... anyone wants ( and Can ) buy a house to live in, should do that !!

We have a housing Market , if you are suggesting that we should enable Gov to steal or degrade peoples property Values (which is an agreed estimate of the monetary worth of a house) because a small number of people would like to buy the House they want in the Suburb they want and at the Price they like to pay, then there will be blood in the streets ( I mean economical disaster) ! and that is unfair and cannot be done ...!

Hence we all have to work around the problem without sinking the boat !!

The government you need to be railing at for "stealing" your property's value is the Chinese one, what are you planning to do about that?

Property investors push up the price of housing higher that what the houses are worth - ie higher than what the local population are able to pay for with their wages.

The property investment incentive comes from the expectation of tax free capital gains. As to why people rent, it is because property investors own the houses that they need to live in, and the speculation of property has put the price of owning out of their reach.

The government is there to provide the legislative environment to ensure the population as a whole thrives. So why should they not dis-incentivise residential property investment? Because there are a few people heavily invested in the current mess? That is not a good answer.

.....

I bow to your superior BS

Totally with Eco bird and the minority on here, all the noise is just tall poppy syndrome in its purest form. Cut down those that have been smart enough to make something for themselves and cry about how unfair it all is. Prices won't drop to levels making them affordable in your view it just won't happen. Simple economical factors ensure that if for nothing else and the impossible happens, a million dollar house sells for $500k tomorrow there will be a million of you cry babies bidding for it pushing prices back up. No one wants to consider the 3 bedroom do up in Papakura and I'm sick of the pussy footing around the rest of us needs to do. I didn't go to university, work my butt off to invest and grow my wealth for the betterment of my family just to support those that chose any easier route. Sorry but not sorry

Totally with Eco bird and the minority on here, all the noise is just tall poppy syndrome in its purest form. Cut down those that have been smart enough to make something for themselves and cry about how unfair it all is. Prices won't drop to levels making them affordable in your view it just won't happen. Simple economical factors ensure that if for nothing else and the impossible happens, a million dollar house sells for $500k tomorrow there will be a million of you cry babies bidding for it pushing prices back up. No one wants to consider the 3 bedroom do up in Papakura and I'm sick of the pussy footing around the rest of us needs to do. I didn't go to university, work my butt off to invest and grow my wealth for the betterment of my family just to support those that chose any easier route. Sorry but not sorry

Working for a house is buying one . Paying off the mortgage over normally 30 years. And In the end it might be worth a bit more and dept free. Not buying a house before 2012 and then it doubles or quadruples and saying you worked for it and expect others to pay the new price after see prices falling . Locals simply can't afford these prices that were pushed up by investors with the help of government, the RB , banks and RE, unless demand is high prices will fall. I fell sorry for any including you if they did buy or tab there house up recently but there were signs. Bubbles do pop. Only problem tho unlike 2008 the local buyer is a long way below today's prices

If a million dollar house sold for $500k all that would mean by the time it got there was that's what it's worth and unless the government pushed demand again with massive amounts of overseas investors again. The $500k would stay. And that also is the same with immigrants with money which has been stopped. Overs over get over it. Think of it like this. IT SHOULD NEVER HAVE HAPPENED IN THE FIRST PLACE

Cry babies, tall poppy and the list goes on. You forgot parasites, envious.......

The only people I'm envious of are young people as my youth has passed me by now and what a life I had. But life is still quite nice albeit different. No more dancing on stages at clubs.

At the end of the day I'm happy for people to make money. But I'm happier prices are dropping for property, it makes it more affordable. Not sure how wanting property to be affordable is envious or a cry baby. Maybe if I thought life revolved around me, I may have a better understanding.

"Auckland a global city "
Yes it is on the globe
No it's not relevant on the globe
Poor little propminx

"Auckland a global city "
Yes it is on the globe
No it's not really relevant In a global city sense being at the end of the planet where hardly anyone is living.
Poor little propminx

But it *is* at the best end of the planet.

Sigh, we've gone over this so many times. Auckland is a Global City, it's in Wikipedia!
It means a gateway city into an economic region basically.
Such places will be location, location, locationnnn.
Especially if it is British and has good educational facilities and economy.

It's like you guys don't understand how easy it is to get on a wide-bodied twin-engined jet and be here in no time at all. That has been the game changer.

Propertyminx ? are you a cat ?
Certainly you are catty
Auckland property is on a downward correction period
No BS there

Yes. I am a cat that can write English. Any other winning comments for today or does this one just about do it?

And 1 and 2 bdrm , hopeless rubbish for a family starting out. 10 years ago you would have got a great place with wages not much less than now. Some people just don't want to admit prices are outrageous and how LUCKY some were at a time to buy 5 or so years ago. Worked for it. Sat and payed there tinny mortgage is more like it. They're terrified the direction the market is going and rightly so. Poor buggers. To have something you don't really want to sell but keeps going down eachday. The word will be SORRY to them from now on. SORRY

Indeed propertyminx, and that has been the case for a while .... If anyone bothers looking behind the headlines he will find that:
1- less listing is not such a bad thing it provides stability to the market.
2- The BANKS have dried up finance and its not only the chinese who have deserted the market but also a lot of property Investors -
3- Speculators chickened out because they were just opportunistic buyers and most are now burnt as they bought a lot of rubbish that they have to keep for 2 years (maybe 5).
4- A lot of the political rhetoric around CGT and rental laws is unhelpful and causing anxiety in the market - hence people would like to see the end result of the elections.

So evidently, the listings would be Winter-slow as the buyers are waiting for the dust to settle after the election

Most of Those who have nothing else to do than counting the few dollars & cents lost in CG each month and moan about it everyday have no skin in the game and are just hopeless spectators on the sidelines turned into property analysts ....

And the condescension continues ......

Those lost "dollars & cents" soon add up. As with investing (or losing weight) every little counts. A few dollars here and few dollars there they all add up.

ECO BIRD.SORRY

@National Birdy: You really prattle on and trying to skew things don't you or have you been back on your Vodka?

Any way just to get some facts right as to why the Auckland property market is falling since it's really straight foreward.

1) Speculators haven't chickened out, they've been restricted by the banks, where they can no longer borrow based on their property portfolio. They can only borrow based on their deposit (which needs to be a large deposit) on the an individual property investment.
And naturally the smarter property investors got out and sold before property prices started declining when the workout what was going on.

2) The reason why the banks have so restricted lending to Speculative Investors is because they worked out that the top end Chinese foreign investors are gone and they're not coming back for quite some time so there's no one to push those crazy prices.

So let's face it Eco Birdy you are stuffed. Stop trying to twist the facts, the market isn't going to bounce back any time soon probably not for a good few years.

I am going to break my Golden wisdom rule today ..... and remind you that October is round the corner ... maybe then you might need something stronger than Vodka to drown your sorrow a bit deeper after selling too soon ..lol!

No matter how much you try to mix between Speculators and Investors, that just proves your ignorance of basic property investment which one day you claim being part of !!!. Obviously, day after day you are describing yourself as an opportunistic Speculator who sold and run away ..:)

Your case sounds like an Emperor desperate for some cloths and hoping everyone will be equally exposed so we could not tell the difference...lol

Not sure if your boss knows about the amount of time you spend here during daytime Mr. Manager, lol, that tell's us heaps about who you are too ! BTW, wasting work time on the net is called stealing, but I am sure you already knew that !! you might like to read your employment contract again !!

I don't think I've ever described myself as Speculative Investor at any time. I just realized what was happening with the market and decided to sell at the peak of the market rather than put up with anther property downturn since I already went through that before during the GFC. So I know just how an declining market affects Landlords and how painful it can be.

And you are no one! Pretty much all the Commenters here do not respect you or your views. At least I have a credible income not like you RE's who are stuffed. I add comments on my commute and lunch hours which are on a flexitime basis, we actually have that in the modern world you dinosaurs should realize that.

You however seem to have no life what so ever since you spend your entire days on this site. Well it will be time for you to eat crow soon enough, you can't remain in denial forever! Oh and by the way, I don't drink Vodka or any spirits for that matter I have told yo that before. That strong drink that you're so fond of is really affecting your memory isn't it Eco Birdy. :)

Econbird
"Skin in the game " those foolish souls who think that holding a now depreciating asset is financially savvy?
Best not to leave your skin in the game too longeth it will get burnt

Aaah whinging about whingers, but I dont think people are whinging. People are just saying house prices are going down. Which from this article it is. I think some people are getting upset that maybe the market is tanking.

Tank or not tank as long as it gets within reach of the average wage. Then thats fine, if average wages increase and property prices increase who cares. If you make an extra 100 mill who cares.

I couldn't agree more with you B.M.

Hard working Kiwis have a mortgage, they don't rent. Do nothing monkey brains wanting moar free stuff will vote for the biggest handout. Sadly hardworking Kiwis are getting outnumbered by the do nothing monkey brains.

That just doesnt make sense.

I will try and Interpret. So people who vote National work. People who rent dont work hard.

Im sure guys like Warren Buffet works hard, but does he work as hard as a Nurse or Docter in an emergency ward for example. Money is not a correlation to how hard people work.

Some people just work smarter, more power to them. But your comment says more about you then renters, and people who vote for the party that will help them out, in what ever way they are wanting.

skudiv.. Are u drinking

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Are you nuts? It might be 'peanuts' to you but to most of us it's more than we earn each year . . .

If you earn less than $29k a year I doubt you will be able to afford to buy a house in Auckland anytime soon (no matter who is elected). I suggest you start working to increase your earning capacity (e.g. study or an apprenticeship).

Thank you o wise one

Unfortunately HeavyG, that is incorrect. When one looks at what they earn each year it simply cant be done on Gross but rather Net amount. For example say a couple with 2.5 kids whose house hold income is 80kpa (one earning) so a net income of approx $2200 FN once they have paid for rent, transport, expenses, food, etc they might only be left with $400 a Fortnight, so their real "Income" is actually only $10,400 a year, which means this recent reduction is actually ~3 years Net income.

How is HeavyG incorrect here? His point is someone earning 29k a year gross could not purchase is Auckland. By your own math that person/household would have basically nothing left after expenses living in Auckland.

Obviously, the assumption of real income being gross.

This sounds like someone who is penny wise but pound foolish

Yes but if you look after the pennies, the pounds look after themselves . . .

Umm... I think the whole point of that proverb is that the pounds don't actually look after themselves and you will lose them if you keep chasing pennies.

Frankly, a fall of $28,694 in the average asking price in Auckland since the May peak is peanuts. Yes true, all it means is that prices are going to fall way further than at any time in NZ history. Note that buyer demand is weak! What happened to the buy in the dip as being an opportunity to climb the patronising property ladder? These days there are less fools to offload too!

Buy in the dips down?

Explore house prices by suburb - nice little tool from NZ Herald. Massive 10 year gains, albeit the current 'blip' ~
http://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/north-island-house-prices/

Is it just the Auckland refugees buying in the regions?
Or is the foreign buying segment now buying in the regions as well?

Yep, and they build more in the regions so the velocity of money increases. All in all the decapitation of the Auckland market is good news for NZ.

Plenty of Chinese are now attending open homes in the better suburbs of Napier.

In an interview yesterday on the herald website Peter Thompson confirmed there were a lot of listings being prepared for Spring. Sounds like these will hit the market late September / early October. Yes, happens every Spring but this year we might see Auckland listings hit 12-13k+++ which hasn't happened in a long time.

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"Buyer demand for Auckland properties is lower than in any other region in the country and new listings and prices have also tumbled".

Yeah I'm not surprised, you know why demand has slumped it's because prices are unrealistic at the moment and the other thing that is happening in Auckland is that the high cost of living is making it harder for employers to supply high salaries to its employees which therefore makes it non commercial viable to run businesses here. I had news from a friend just yesterday to say that their international IT company had had to close it doors since wasn't feasible to run their business here and remain globally competitive.

It's also happening in the retail sector too. If people are having to spend most of their income on rent then of course consumer spending on high ticket items like a home will go down. Plus we haven't got the foreign buyers anymore thanks to China's capital flight restrictions.

Personally, I'll be very happy when property prices drop further because that will lower the cost of living in Auckland, remember a byproduct of property not selling is a big increase in the number of rental properties flooding the market which lowers rental prices.

A lower cost of living allows business to thrive and helps to strengthen a real economy. Not a false economy that National supported by enabling foreign buyers to asset strip and bloat prices making it unaffordable for residents, dramatically increasing the cost of living.

Well put

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Thank you Fritz. To be honest I think we would have ended up in a much bigger mess if China hadn't enforced its capital flight restrictions when it did. We really need that Foreign Buyers Tax and proper AML regulations to try and prevent this from happening again.

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Yip it's a no brainer. Currently foreign land owners enjoy all the benefits of Nz without contributing anything, as pointed out by the interview here yesterday by the land tax guy. Why not at least introduce a land tax for foreign owners? Make peter theil contribute something.

Comment of the week right there. Totally agree.

Not just foreign land owners but foreign owners of NZ based companies or services being provided offshore can it seems also dodge most tax. So selling our assets to foreign corporations was a double whammy not only do profits get exported but also tax free as well.

...remember a byproduct of property not selling is a big increase in the number of rental properties flooding the market which lowers rental prices.

Huh?

No, it doesn't. A drop in house sales, results in a drop in house production (putting Auckland even further behind on house production). Which means overtime rents go up. And more people are forced to leave.

Is Auckland really that far behind ? Or was it demand driving prices this whole time and all the Politicians to scared to come out and say it in case they offend someone, so they come up with stupid plans to build a million houses in three years - in Wellsford probably ? I pick the latter.

Yeah, there is a lot of truth in what you say. But the Auckland region does build really slowly, about 50 - 60% slower than Brisbane (slightly larger city) and 25% slower than Tauranga (which is a small city).

The planning is insane, the preference of Phil Goff is to build sprawl around the little towns of the region. And with every setback when that doesn't work, the response is to dip more into the insane - to build even more sprawl.

We are currently in to the 3rd or 4th iteration of Plan-To-Restrict-Auckland-City-Whilst-Building-Massive-Exurban-Sprawl. The Unitary Plan started out with 30% more sprawl than normal, then went to 50% more and then 70% - then just last month Phil Goff decided to slash another massive chunk out of Auckland City land supply.

So, that's both speculative demand for trading tokens and real demand for dwellings stabbed in the nuts.

CJ099
Good info
The commercial leases in Auckland CBD are frankly laughable considering Aucklands location
In NY State there are incentives ! What incentives does Auckland offer an IT company or any company ?
No the fact is Auckland is overpriced and we see the speculators squirm with indignation here

When Jacinda is PM property investors will be able to write off capital losses against their income and get massive tax rebates.

Remember folks - vote Labour and give these poor struggling multi-millionaire Aucklanders big tax subsidies.

That's not a given. It's a CGT ( if it comes in!) capital GAINS tax, not a Capital Tax. Losses.....may just be quarantined ( at best) for, say, 5 years, and then expire - or not allowed at all! We'll have to wait and see....

Labour's proposal at the last election was for tax on gains only with no loss carry forwards and because of this the rate was set at 15%. Other jurisdictions like UK have loss carry forward limited to 7 years. It is likely that a capital gains tax will also apply retrospectively so if you bought 10 years ago and sell now, you are still liable for a gain.

The family home (principle private residence) restriction also needs more clarification to avoid landlords moving into a former rental then selling it to avoid tax.

The application of a CGT on previous purchases goes against legislative practice as it is a retrospective law. This is a big no no in western legislation, as it is changing rules after an individual/ entity has made a decision. So Labour would be unlikely to do this as tends to effect future investment into a jurisdiction.

I would suspect that there would be a delay period of say 5 years for people to sort out their affairs then it would apply going forward.

Would apply to properties purchased after law enacted eg April 1 2018. This often reduces properties for sale as investors reluctant to sell as no capital gains on properties purchased prior to the new law. So if sell then, buy a few properties down the track have to pay capital gains. If capital gains liable on all sales at a set date, would crash the market as investors sell before law comes into force, to avoid CGT. This is why would only apply from purchases from a future date.

What current property owners do with their holding is determined by what FUTURE buyers are bound by. If current holders 'don't have to pay CGT' that doesn't matter. Whoever they (try to) sell to will factor into the price of their purchase what the known rules are. Whichever way CGT goes ( or doesn't!) and on 'what date' doesn't matter. It's what 'will happen' to future buyers that counts....

Just make it clear. How about any house that has had a single cent of tax reduction on personal income. No question then.

What ever labour does I'm sure it will be fair

Fore example.

Phil Goff cuts off land supply to Auckland so that all the land prices are kept stupid high. And poor people get to live in cars.

Fairness, by Labour.

So when the country had more state housing and around 2010 people on lower wages could afford to rent or buy cheap houses wasn't real. Then national opened the flood gates with overseas investors and high immigration with very low interest rates didn't happen. All labours doing a, I guess years ago. The % of state houses and high rents and higher house prices is the problem. State houses wouldn't seem as bad by a long way if there were some cheap rentals and houses but there aren't so the pressure is put back on government why'll they both try to get votes by saying house prices are ok high. Haha . They might build a few houses but lower prices is really the fix. In the end the market will naturally fix itself. DTI has always been with us even if not a restriction. Remember the questions asked at your bank. Affordability will come back because it's all we have

As real estate valuations fall, the flow and stock of exempt LVRs above 80 percent will grind the debt laden scheme into a self perpetuating downward spiral. All works well when prices have headed due north for so long. Valuers , mortgage brokers and indeed banks will need to cross the t's and dot the i's when little johnny, recent property investor comes looking for a top up .

Which is 'everybody's' nightmare! Owners trapped in Negative Equity (which is really anyone who cannot muster enough deposit on 'the next place' - because every seller will need a buyer to release their deposit; your downward spiral). The next step? 3, as a Big Figure, as opposed to the 4 at the moment (4.69%). It won't help, of course, but will allow the over-indebted to remain....over-indebted..until.....

Until the banks start margin calling.

There may be differing views on whether a market slower down is good or not - however the confidence downturn is more of a worry and the potential Taxinda effect (or the worry about the adverse impact of a Labour government on the economic prospects of NZ) is making this worse.

You can't blame labour, they aren't even in yet, national made this bubble and the slowing of overseas investors and the beginning of the LVRs with dept getting far to high with complaints of unaffordability, started why'll key was still in. Labour took house prices up from 2000 to 2008 why'll still lifting even at 9% interest rate. That correction was mild because people could still afford houses. Labour is what the country needs to help EVERYONE. And don't blame labour if there's a big drop in house prices because unlike 2008 this correction could get quite messy. I can't see local buyers affording anywhere near these prices. They haven't for a long time. Its been mainly investors

Have to blame Labour.

Len Brown and Phil Goff slashed land supply to Auckland, jacked up land prices. Auckland was a 6 year long rent seekers paradise. Killed the building industry in this town and made people homeless.

Rubbish and you no it. There's always mountain loads of houses for sale in Auckland. The SIMPLE truth is 10 years ago people could buy and rent, (only 10 years ok) NOW THEY CANT. End of story. The people will have the final say tho . Investors from who cares. Mars if you like. Started this mess. But I guarantee you the locals of the area will win in the end. They're the only ones left . Not rocket science really

Auckland builds super slowly, because the council is run by Labour which jacks up land prices. Labour started doing this 8 years ago and they haven't stopped yet. This year when prices started to fall, Phil Goff decided to ban building at Takanini until after 2040 - to restrict land supply some more and try to keep prices high.

Now obviously Labour blames foreigners or investors or people with funny sounding names, but really it is very simple. Labour have cut off Auckland land supply for 8 years and the simple truth is this makes land costs skyrocket.

Correct - Phil Goff created the Supercity

No that was a National/ACT policy initiative;

Labour, the Maori Party, the Progressive Party and the Greens opposed the bill.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/31846/progress-slow-on-auckland-...

You can't blame the government for everything. Its not like they have a big all seeing machine and control everything. That said, one thing is absolutely clear, if Labour get into government, middle New Zealanders will ALL be worse off once Taxinda convenes her tax working group and we see the result being a massive overtaxing of hard working Kiwis in favour of those less fortunate people whose votes Taxinda wants to buy.

Longer story short - Taxinda will tax us heavily to buy votes - unfortunately for her we see through the plan. Don't vote Labour unless you want to pay lots more tax and see the economy lose momentum.

Rubbish 99% of nzers did perfectly fine with labour the last 9 years they were in. The normal moaning about labour and taxes. National with gst was worse. Stop crying over nothing

Jacinda seems to have you spitting tacks keep positive. Maybe you should try to keep positive and talk about how good Bill English and National are doing instead. For your health if nothing else. All that negativity just isn't healthy..

Keep positive, engage brain and vote National..... anything else will leave us all poorer....that's what I'm concerned about.

I think you meant to say that; "anything else will leave me all poorer... that's what I'm concerned about."

The election seems to me to be one of property speculators vs the rest of New Zealand.

Keep up the purile Taxinda nonsence. It shows how desperate and totally short of didactic comment you are.

You misspelled 'puerile'

Unfortunately there will always be someone who complains in life, the weather, the govt, the housing crisis, the council, the migrants, the taxman, the workers, the investors etc etc.

The divide between the have's and the have not's is growing daily. Some people like to whinge and moan too much, unfortunately it's like a rocking chair, gives you something to do, but doesn't get you anywhere...

There are some people who make things happen....others that wait for things to happen....and others that wonder what the hell happened.....which one do you want to be?

Soon the self-entitled property glitterati will wonder who moved their cheese

or who cut the cheese

Or who's trying to steal the cheese?

Or why the cheese is smelling like a teenage boy's sneakers

Let them eat Colby.

Upside . I want to be the guy saying that house prices going from early 2000 to now going up 4x why'll wages 10% is stupid and hopefully people will see the light and stop this madness, what in another 10 years houses go to $2 million. The average mortgage is $1.5 million . The only reason prices go up to fast is you triple demand and throw money at people. And if you stop it it's all over. Someone needs to start being responsible and most people didn't work, make money and buy there house today, they were just johnny on the spot, image if they had to find $200000 and get a $800000 mortgage and pay the weekly payments. The ones moaning the most are the selfish scared ones hoping there house will at least stay where it is. Not likely if you truly understand how we got here

Dream on people ... Venting out is very healthy and reduces the Cortisol overload !! so should be good for your health ...

Carry on then you're always doing it

Image with the amount of people that own Homes and you would think most people would think national the more stable government over the new girl in town and under labour house prices could drop even more. And immigration dropped. BUT IT SEEMS THE PEOPLE WANT THAT. WEIRD

Didn't they just discover an extra 60,000 immigrants had arrived? This Govt are really good with numbers eh

Think these 60,000 are paying taxes? Can imagine Joyce tyring to figure out where all this extra tax generated is coming from/not coming from...

And here we are propping up landlords to the tune of $6m per day in our hard earned taxes https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/96523625/pm-bill-english-says-...
Seriously how much would it cost to go on a mass building spree? Appreciate the tower and estate model of the UK isn't a panacea, but something along those lines to stop the rort, it's a joke.

The equivalent of building 3650 houses a year at $600k each

Government shouldn't be building houses, force the ones we have down then land bankers and developers will be forced to sharpen there pencils. They need to know this is the new way or the future so they learn. As the years have gone by new homes are no longer possible for FHBers. Even tinny little boxes are ridiculous. Thats ok I guess . FHBers are forced to buy old or appartments. But the hole idea of a FHBers is usually a family starting out and appartments are hopeless. PRICES ARE SIMPLY TO MUCH. Force them DOWN

Well there's a significant youth unemployment problem, we don't have enough skilled builders and apparently need to import them - Open up some land, get some supervisor master builders in, train the young 'uns in building, plumbing and being a sparky, have them build several communities/villages, restock the state housing, have the people most likely live in those state houses trained in a skill, and they've got the pride of building their own homes and communities. Job done, be better than sending them off to boot camp.

Building isn't the only profession in Auckland. And if you can't build a house in nz that the square metre rate doesn't work for FHBers on there incomes there is something very wrong . Only about 4 years ago out of Auckland I got a 209 metre house built for $1250 per square metre. ONLY 4 YEARS AGO. How is it possible that nz can change so fast. O that's right GREED and pushing demand from anywhere we can find it

I think Fear as well. Fear of missing out as property prices were moving so fast people panicked. Thought better get in now.

But that fear of missing out is gone. Now it might be fear of losing money that takes over.

Simply make policy that drive houses prices down. Although it doesn't look like anyone needs to. It'll happen anyway. You would be surprised how many of Aucklands problems would just disappear if house prices dropped 30 to 50%, when will people learn KEEPING house prices low and affordable with people in general having lots of extra money each week is a better economy. DONT FORGET BUYING ON THE SAME MARKET IS THE SAME IF HOUSING IS CHEAP. And for investors go to Skycity

You would be surprised how many problems would APPEAR in Auckland if house prices dropped 30 to 50% (and this is said by someone who lives in the regions and has no skin in the property game).

Like ripping off a sticky plaster... You can either do it fast or slow. There is no easy way out...

PaulO. You mean the pain to get there but get there we must . I buy property but mostly have moved from houses to commercial. But if houses were say $400k and only moved up slowly I'd be happy because I wouldn't owe much and in a short time a might by another house and not owe much and so on and so on, they'll pay themselves off and I'll pass it to my kids, or I buy a house for $400k it goes up heaps . I take some money out of it and buy one for the next going rate say $600k and so on and so on. Next thing I owe a future and the market has turned risky. I can't see the point. All you seem to do is own less and owe more with less sleep. Stupid. O thats right to you chop your rental into little bits to get more rent too. Another thing to remember the only reason MOST investors today have rentals at all is because of excessive house increases. They're simply using money they wouldn't normally have by using there parents or first home or first rental to increase to the next. Because of that and how really large that really is I'm very worried what might happen. 2008 the GFC was nothing compared to the figures of today

I expect that in time the solution in Auckland will be swathes of low-cost, basic-build townhouses and rowhouses which will become the norm in new budget developments in parts of Auckland. You want a standalone house and a decent section? That is always going to cost decent $$ in Auckland. You'
ll either need to stump up the $$ or go to the regions. And in time I expect these Auckland rowhouses / cheap townhouse developments will become ghettos. Standalone houses of investment grade might drop in value but if say a home in Glenfield or Glen Eden worth 750K today drops 25%, it's still going to be close to 600K....and that is still too much for those who don't earn a lot. A dip in prices might happen, sure, but Auckland house prices falling off a cliff? I just can't see it.

Indeed and well put ...

today $600K in Glenfield is the price for a 400m2 section .... 750-800K Stand alone homes are 1950s mostly do ups or trash which hold no real value ...these are now selling at 20-25% discount ( if the seller is desperate) as they are really not worth any more than the value of their Land ....
Quality modern houses are above $1M and they are inching slowly up as we speak because they are irreplaceable in both value and location ( and compared with new built ) !!
there wont be a cliff to fall off from (only in the imagination of the wishful envious visionary dudes) ... unless they turn our North Shore to something like Sydney's NS ...even then prices will adjust again accordingly ...

Get out there and get buying ecobird/tothepoint. If it's a sure thing, borrow to the hilt and then keep on borrowing more! Leverage more, then squeeze a bit more. More, more, you can do it.
Though my suspicion is you are talking the talk, but ain't walking the walk... so 'big' guy, when was the last time you bought? Come on... gloat about it. You know you want to tell us.

Blue meanie. They HAVE borrowed to much, can't you read between the lines. That why they talk the way they do. Feel sorry for them, sorry guys

It sounds like National Bird thinks the price of land is immutable. Interesting...

More like Big Bird.

PaulO. 25% would be a good start if prices could stay a bit low for a while but also even the middle range houses are to much and ever how many brain surgeons are there that can keep some areas up in the 3 million area and for how long, keeping in mind a lot of this demand came from overseas and in slowing. The markets is out of wack to ALL incomes to the new % of demand out there

Q4, I think if prices fell to those levels then you might see some unintended consequences with "displaced Aucklanders" like me selling up in the regions and moving back to Auckland.

I can only speak for myself, but the reason I bought in Napier was down to the comparative cost of housing here compared to Auckland. I just could not get my head around paying 3/4 million dollars in Auckland for of an investment grade property in the likes of Glenfield when I could get a brand new 4-bedroom home in Napier for 100K less. I do like Napier but it's not home - all of my friends and family are in Auckland. So if prices in Auckland do fall 25% from current levels, I'd seriously consider selling up here and moving back - and there are plenty more like me.

And before you say that a fall in the market is relative because all properties will fall in price by a similar amount, I doubt that. If there is a large fall in the market - and I for one don't see any fall being large - then I'd expect Auckland to see the largest fall and the regions which haven't gained so much to fall by a much smaller amount. Some might not fall at all. As such, moving back to Auckland could be a good move for some of us - and those displaced Aucklanders returning will snap up a property (to live in) before prices fall too far. This is one of a number of reasons I believe Auckland prices will not fall that much. 15% fall maximum from current levels is my guess before they start to rise again.

I mostly agree PaulO. Most of outside Auckland hasn't lifted that much. Tauranga might get hit badly because they have built a lot. It's really hard to think about the numbers. It's about numbers for demand to move the needle one way or the other. All I would say is the amount of chatter about auction rooms bogging at the seems with Asians . That must be very high demand. Reports from the RB that investors have hit record amounts of borrowing. That's very high demand. For so many city's and towns outside Auckland to get such high sales from Aucklanders. Even to move that needle is very high demand. For prices in Auckland to stop coming down like they are. Auckland would need to fine demand in affordability, people returning back to Auckland and without as many still wanting to leave. I think the people coming and going from Auckland would be minimal compared to all the other demand story's . It takes a big number to move the needle. FHBers and maybe some new investors one day will stop property prices dropping in Auckland but the numbers are bad. Don't forget a 25% drop is bad and not out of the question. Over that is recession. Middle to high prices could get hammered

O4N : quote "keep in mind a lot of the demand came from overseas"

agree with the implication that not all the demand came from overseas

But sure as heck ALL the price-setters and their price-setting came from overseas

Yes and when you have just had a big slow down from 2008 to 2013 people are all fired up and they were. Then throw money at them. Didn't the RB say that we set new records of dept for investors . Yes all it takes is something like overseas money to kick thing off. But is that a good idea or bad knowing it can't go on forever and in the end would need to get back to DTI

Just went for a drive along Vicky Ave this evening to see my neighbour Cowpat and saw a SOLD sign on the signboard at 49 Victoria Ave https://www.barfoot.co.nz/601214
Does anyone know how much it went for??
Cowpat where are you?!?

OMG I found the sale on this website...drumroll...it went for $5,010,000 at the end of Aug!! CONGRATS TO THE VENDOR wow I'm flabbergasted - this is totally against the trend of what the doomsters claim. Just trust what you see with your own eyes from now on...
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/residential-auction-results?region=Au...

Wow. Don't you wish you were that smart?

BM , why would a guy go on and on about a market of the 1% expensive houses which are normally rare anyway. They're expensive because they are rare. I just don't see the point. You might as well comment if the zoo was sold. What is the topic again. Is it all of the people

I enjoy reading Double-GZ's comments concerning recent sales and this article is about Auckland house prices after all.

I find it boring, and a little strange. It epitomizes the saying those who can't see the forest for the trees. Kind of the opposite of what economics and market discussion is all about, which is what this website is about right? There is a guy at my work who likes to talk about expensive things, holidays, luxury cars etc. You never hear of him buying them himself however, just talking about the sales on etc.. I think he does it to make others think he is well off and important. Maybe its the same with D-GZ?

Double-GZ does natural-born inferior aucklanders a disservice - by constantly broadcasting the prices of the upper-echelon suburb - the inferiors become disillusioned and either give up, or, become conditioned into accepting that that is the price of auckland living and become careless and end-up putting their hand up and paying $2 million for a dump in a lower-echelon place

As Double-GZ repeatedly flaunts his obsession with property in Remuera and his driving habits and evening walking habits and attendence at every open-home in Remuera he comes accross as an OCD obsessive wannabe-nouveau-aristocrat needing everyone to know

Both of you, Zachary and Double-GZ, are imports from other places and you haven't yet learnt that's not the kiwi way

Thats exactly it, its not the kiwi way.

We love our rich people to be down to earth, good people that care. Not Trump wanabee's. More like Warren Buffet.

Some of you like to theorise that the whole market is tanking so top of market sales are relevant in that context. If labour get in these will go higher as owner occupiers feather their nests.

Double GZ I am here. Shopping at Countdown, scanning carpark for Cayennes. Home.co.nz did not increase prices this month, why.

A suv come on a carrera

VW Kombi.

Or a ute for the fishing, surfing and bikes.

A old kombi be nice

Yeah I like those

Cayenne owners would have my food bag or similar delivered on Sunday so no need to be at Countdown on a Wednesday night.

7.

Cowpat we don't have a Countdown in Remuera. Did you go to the one in Meadowbank, Greenlane or Newmarket?

Anyone seen "the block" recently? There's a great example of how the Unitary Planand terraced housing and apartments will bring the land costs down overtime.we also have Chinese out, local incomes stagnant, brightline CGT and rates will eventually tick upwards. If labour get in a level the playing field for everyone or we have a world shock like Trumps North Korea trading ban look out. You'd have to be financially illiterate to buy an investment property in Auckland right now.

You'd have to be financially illiterate if you didn't have your rentals signed sold unconditional before the elections because after you'll be one off 20000