Pre-Christmas rush at Bayleys' auction rooms in Auckland, Waikato, Rotorua and Hawke's Bay

This waterfront house at Point Wells sold for $2,065,000.

Bayleys sold exactly 50% of the properties at their Auckland auctions last week, with the overall success rate from their upper North Island auctions 45%.

In Auckland the agency marketed 20 properties for sale by auction and sold 10 of them, with prices ranging from $396,000 for a CBD apartment to $2.065 million for a waterfront holiday house at Point Wells near Omaha.

Bayley's Waikato auction rooms were even busier with 23 properties being offered, a mix of urban houses and farming properties. Sales were achieved on nine of them.

The most successful auction of the week was at Bayleys' Havelock North office, where three of the four properties offered were sold.

At the Rotorua auction six properties were offered and two sold.

The full results with photos and details of all the properties and the prices achieved on those that sold are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

If you are interested in commercial property, check out our Commercial Property Sales page.

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78 Comments

Bayleys out performing B&T in Auckland once again. Could there be a changing of the guard for who will be Auckland's biggest RE firm....

Oh No !! how dare they sell 50% of houses when the market is Crashing ... Surely these mislead buyers have not understood all the cautious messages posted here and elsewhere to wait for the crash and buy the properties at dirt value !!

I suggest that doomers should try a bit harder to convince buyers to wait .... maybe be a bit proactive and do a pamphlet run around your neighbourhoods to catch for those who dont listen to MSM and financial advise on the net !!

It really shows how much the market has changed since a year or two ago that 50% is now considered a good result.

Actually , it is ... with declining business sentiments 3 months in a row, and all the uncertainty around the housing market, 50% is closer to the normal 70% than the dire 20-25%.... I say that if the market keeps up this 50%+ sale ratio, then the market is healthy and kicking and prices will improve !!

Who knows what will happen to prices, but we're certainly not back to the frenzied price rises when auction rates were routinely 80-90%.

And we wont see that again in the near future,
this cycle has peaked Last March and looks like we had a bottom in July ... no one knows how long this period of reconciliation will last ( the dampening effect ) ..we will see prices appreciate in the range of 2- 5% pa of the New (reasonable) 2017 QVs.

there will be areas that command higher prices like DGZ, the Bays and Westlake Zone on the shore because of location and scarcity.

It will be interesting to watch and follow this strange market for a change :)

And we wont see that again in the near future,
this cycle has peaked Last March and looks like we had a bottom in July ... no one knows how long this period of reconciliation will last ( the dampening effect ) ..we will see prices appreciate in the range of 2- 5% pa of the New (reasonable) 2017 QVs.

there will be areas that command higher prices like DGZ, the Bays and Westlake Zone on the shore because of location and scarcity.

I think I can envisage closed eyes, a hand circling, and something akin to speaking in tongues.

More seriously, I think that if you reach for media releases as your default tarot cards for what's going to happen to property prices, you're not a troll; you're a failed troll who can only score points on the emotional reactions of those equally as ignorant.

I don't think you know what a troll is.

Not much effort required to uncover troll behavior. Protagonists will say anything to get an emotional reaction, regardless of whether or not they can qualify anything they say (and no, real estate media releases do not qualify the future). Quite common in online debates about global warming and house prices, particularly in Australia and NZ.

I would be more impressed by your argument if you didn't reserve all your criticism for just one faction. To be fair, by your definition, protagonists on both sides appear to indulge in trolling. It would be a little dull if we sought to eradicate all emotion in our comments. Comments should be entertaining and informative.

Pray tell where in J.C.'s reply does he identify one faction over the other.

J.C. only accuses the bulls of trolling.

Nope. I only identify trolls who spout nonsense as "evidence based" insight in pursuit of an emotional reaction. Those who react to trolls aren't necessarily trolls. They just don't have the chops to deal with them.

I guess a troll is different things to different people. I see a comment I posted on another thread generated 53 reply and counter reply comments from 11 different commenters. Was this a successful troll or just a particularly thought provoking comment? I did design it to generate a response and waited weeks before the time was right to post it. Perhaps a trolling comment can make one think? Much like a court jester. I like to think of trolling in the sense of fishing so in this sense I would un-apologetically admit to trolling.

Zachary Smith, your comment smacks of a deep desire to be regarded as a "Precious Troll"

Nice try - but evidence please.

Agree. It's pretty impressive that 10 houses were sold in Auckland.

A stunning 75% success rate in Havelock North too, things are really rocketing up, up and away.

Don't knock it, with that run rate, they'll have sold 520 houses in a whole year! #winning.

Split between the 20+ Bayleys Offices in Auckland, each boasting 10+ agents (Auckland Central has 82 agents).

50% is still pretty bouyant ...............

Agree with you Boatman.

Everything considered, it's a positive enough outcome......

Enough to ruffle the feathers of the gloom and doom merchants - whose forecasts have been rather problematic to say the least.

TTP

Low volume statistics. The houses may have sold but without more detail the results are meaningless (much like your comments). .

Most people do not have the basic understanding of how to determine statistical significance from data sets.

Enough to ruffle the feathers of the gloom and doom merchants - whose forecasts have been rather problematic to say the least.

The reduction of understanding the direction of property prices to a 'good vs evil' battle of emotion only wins points on low-involvement chat forums or at neighborhood BBQs. It has litte relevance to reality.

I see feathers are ruffled, TTP.

@ JC , you are correct , 50% by number of sales does not tell us anything , does it indicate success ? , or good prices? , or desperate sellers? or is it above or below the median ? ( which itself tells us nothing )

But if 50% of sellers were happy with the price and 50% were happy with what they bought , then its still a bouyant market .

It just means the other 50% of sellers needs to temper their expectations , or does it ?

That is the whole problem - we don't know.

You miss the point J.C.,

If you followed the market indicators, you would know that the price trend has been up for at least the last 2 months.

A number of reputable commentators have commented on this - including from the banking sector.

Unfortunately, a certain group of people here (with a particular agenda) are disseminating information which does not accord with the facts. This misleads and deceives others...... I used the word "problematic" above for good reason.

TTP

Have the house prices trended upward for the 50 - 70% of houses that have failed to sell? Or is the fact that these houses haven’t sold allowed the averages to be skewed upwards by sales of desirable property that would sell well almost regardless of market conditions?

Kettle pot black. Likewise you are trying to infer from the sales that the entire market is "peachy". Without more information people can't draw any conclusion from the low volume of sales. You accuse others of missing the point - a mistake you make as well.

Hi Bad Robot,

On the contrary, I have described the market-as-a-whole as being "soft", "subdued", "quiet" and "post-upswing" on a number of occasions. Those words are hardly synonymous with "peachy"!

Further, I have clearly indicated that I consider that this situation will continue for the "foreseeable future".

Again, you are spreading misinformation.

TTP

Nice try - but not in this thread. You have said a lot, much of which is of little value. Where am I spreading misinformation - again an attempt to take some sort of high ground.

Kettle pot black. Likewise you are trying to infer from the sales that the entire market is "peachy". Without more information people can't draw any conclusion from the low volume of sales. You accuse others of missing the point - a mistake you make as well.

Fair point and a fundamental principle of statistics. Basically, you're saying that nobody knows what direction actual prices are heading. I think you're right.

If you followed the market indicators, you would know that the price trend has been up for at least the last 2 months.

A number of reputable commentators have commented on this - including from the banking sector.

If a sample of 300 sales shows 100% with directionally higher house prices, that does not prove nor indicate that prices are rising in a representative market without any statistical framework and definitions.

"Reputable commentators" is a subjective notion, even if they work for a bank or on TV or in the newspapers. Just because Tony Alexander is an economist, he has no idea of what is happening with house prices. He only has his own beliefs and a basic model that is likely to include interest rates and immigration growth as independent drivers (if you understand what an independent driver is in a modelling context).

Hi J.C.,

Tony Alexander has access to the same (reliable) data sources as most other analysts and commentators - and there has been plenty of data recently to confirm the trends. As well, there's been ample cross-validation.

Best advice to you: when you're in a hole - stop digging.

TTP

....and Tony Alexander is the font of all information - who put him on a f**king pedestal and he isn't known to be wrong. How about actually thinking for yourself for once.

BadRobot, don't waste your breath.

TTP struggles to get a grip on what's really happening out there which explains why his predictions posted on interest.co.nz swing back and forth.

House prices will resume their upward march in the short term
House prices will resume upwards shortly after the election no matter what happens
House prices will start rising towards the end of 2018
House prices will oscillate around current levels for the foreseeable future
House prices will rise long term
House prices never fall
House prices will perform in a "sticky down" kind of way

Those property seminars have a lot to answer for don't they ;-)

Yes he does appear to be a bit capricious.

Tony Alexander has access to the same (reliable) data sources as most other analysts and commentators - and there has been plenty of data recently to confirm the trends. As well, there's been ample cross-validation

OK, "confirm the trends" and "cross validate the trends."

You can't because you're either trolling and / or don't know how. I suggest that you probably qualify for both classifications.

Feel free to prove me wrong.

Also pays to remember who pays Tony's salary. It does seem to be a trait of the NZ media that they trot out bank economists for an opinion which is then taken as impartial and without agenda, without question.

A lot of people are claiming that 40-50% auction success rates are a sign of failure and are even "dire". What I think is more important is the sales prices. The purpose of my "analysis" of auction results was to determine if there were signs of distressed sales. I would check each property carefully looking for that particularly good buy. Occasionally I would spot one but on further analysis there were found to be good reasons for the low price such as a pylon or monolithic cladding. A quick check of previous sales usually revealed that the low price was a continuance of the historical trend for that particular property.

It has often been noted that a single sale in a street can lift the prices for all the houses in the street. Thus lowish numbers are not necessarily significant. The prices being reached are consistently averaging just over the 2017 RV. The quantities being sold are not significantly less than what is normal anyway. A couple of thousand houses sold all over Auckland last month for high prices. This must maintain the high prices for all properties in the area.

This sounds more like excuses, excuses.

So is the sales price for the ones not sold zero.

A house that doesn't sell doesn't have nearly as much impact on the market as one that does sell.

You would think that it would have exactly as much impact. Not being sold is a statement from the buyers at the auction and the market.

If its not selling there maybe a number of reasons, but the one that sticks out, is that the seller is asking too much money for the house and current market. If the house was priced to sell then it would. If these houses were sold at what the market says they are worth, then what would these prices be. Im guessing not that great. Soon though some of these people who dont sell may drop prices to meet the market, if they dont need the money they can sit on them.

But some people may be desperate or need a quick sale, e.g. bought a house already, leaving for overseas, cant meet mortgage payments on investments, starting a business and need cash, divorce and a whole raft of scenarios.

I do think the not solds have a major impact on the conversation.

Interesting times.

Wow - this really has degraded into a Spruikers fest.

Nothing has changed, market heading down with no doubt a flood of post Christmas listings coming January February.

Don't waste any alcohol on this....

R-P you are the biggest troll of the century. The market is obviously inching upwards, steady as she goes. You're talking the market down in the hope that you can have your finger in the pie. Unfortunately no such luck for you.

DGZ, you're a paid up member of a club of leveraged property enthusiasts who bet on housing using other people's money. You blindly assume the next ten years will deliver the same returns as the past. Like others, you've taken a big bet on property and no matter how many warning flags are raised, your party must go on - foolish. Take a deep breath, gather your thoughts and tell yourself, this is not the beginnings of the next boom, it's likely the beginnings of a bust!

Insight is the way forward - I suggest you use it.

I don't need luck. I'm not interested in purchasing any additional property and I sincerely hope that for the purposes of social stability house prices flatline for say 10-15 years, that would be ideal.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

Nowhere above does DGZ say that this is "the beginnings of the next boom".

You should read the mood of this thread: people here are getting sick and tired of certain individuals (including you) who make false statements.

Shooting from the hip without reference to the facts is not good enough. It's destructive.

You've been caught out a number of times recently...... Time you mended your ways.

TTP

And all your posts meet a high level of academic rigour. You seem to try and take some sort of moral high ground yet most of your posts actually contain very little information or insight. Perhaps it's time you mended your ways .

I have never once seen you reference anything at all, you just claim to be backed by vague forecasters and indications. This comment is absolutely hilarious in its hypocrisy. Enjoy your day, thanks for the laugh.

Only morons would hope for a market crash. You're terrible Muriel LOL!!

Oh - okay, I see it's too late as youvé already popped the corks. All the best with your fest young Spruikers :-)

January - February listings coming guys........not even Juwai.com is going to prop up this ailing market.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/98984001/chinese-property-website-pushi...

FHB, wait, market is incredibly overvalued, a lot of auctions are receiving no bids, it's trending down - its very much early days.

And only morons would not realize that they can and do happen.

A sample of 53 properties offered by Bayleys in the mid to Upper North island is hardly a great representation of the market and Bayleys do seem to market the higher quality homes - but a 50% sell rate is still rather poor.

Reflecting on 2017 and looking at predictions for 2018 one has to wonder what will happen once foreign buyers banned, negative gearing gradually removed, rents only able to be increased once a year, tenants given much greater rights than now and already sub 2% returns in Auckland. Add to the mix an interest rate increase, higher council rates due to new CV’s etc, investor LVR still in place etc surely prices will take a hit.

There are a lot of potential headwinds - both internal and external. I think things at present are "balanced" with no clear direction to the up or downside. It will be interesting in the new year to see if there is more clarity.

In agreement with other various posts - not sure if sales results around this time of year are really worth the discourse.
Back in the day no one really bothered with the sale process a few weeks before xmas – for all the obvious reasons.
So why now – do vendors simply want a particular property gone and so be it, is the thinking that there’s less competition at this time or the fear that a possible glut is about to wash all before it away – do buyers think they’ve caught a bargain while no one was watching or do sellers think “thank God for that”.
I think that sales events of the moment bear little relationship to what will unfold over the next 6 months or so – up or down.

I would think it is more January's sales results that can be misleading. This time of year houses look nice from a marketing perspective. Also people want to buy and settle in before the school year starts.

Zachary appreciate your considered reply - you make a good point re the school year.
As per your previous comment– agree, in a general sense no distressed sales.
And no real “bargains” I think – and why should there be – nearly all macro indicators still flashing green – some possibly not quite the screaming green as previous – but nonetheless, a definite greenish hue about them to be sure.
Maybe a concern, because what do we have then – a market priced to perfection??
If “yes” – then in market speak normally a time for caution.
Or at least be careful….??

Wow. I was really expecting sale volumes to really pick up in December, way more than this. I would have thought that poorly positioned investors would have been offloading any dodgy properties on their portfolios ahead of any coalition legislation changes and Chinese buyers getting in before the ban. There has certainly been a little pick up, but I was expecting more.

I was at several open homes this weekend in Welly. All dead and the RE Agents super desperate. I was really shocked by how much the vibe had changed.

A lot of people would have been hoping the same, reality will set in, in the new year. along with the credit card bill.

...with each passing day more house ATMs are being removed by nervous banks. That leaves places like Harmony to finance the appetite for the latest gadgets, SUV's and home improvements!

Ten years ago places like Hanover Finance were the icons of consumer credit.

Same pattern of events, just a different decade.

I have a little play money on Harmoney, I was surprised by the number of A grade borrowers (home owners with good incomes) borrowing large sums from Harmoney for home improvements and holidays. Not sure why they would pay 8-9%(+$500 Loan fee) to harmoney instead of topping up the mortgage.

Asymmetric information. There is no free lunch.

Pragmatist, banks are turning borrowers away, I just found an article on the very thing;

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/99977028/borrowers-turn-their-bac...

Floating mortgage rates at nearly 6%, so hardly worth the hassle of applying for a mortgage top up.

Its interesting to note that UDC is by far the biggest lender in this area. As you know ANZ tried its best to flick UDC to China's HNA group but that sadly fell over. ANZ will no doubt be providing further liquidity to UDC with each passing year........

Interest rate means everything when borrowing. Paying more interest simply because it's easy does not stand the light of day. Managing costs is a big part of being successful in business in the first place. Interest rate reflects credit quality and worthiness in my book. Banks are nervous about this stage of the credit cycle.

Hence 9% unsecured may be better for a consumer or small business than 6% on security of your home.

Everything still selling in Torbay, perhaps its taking a little longer but the "SOLD" stickers are still appearing on the signs. Two of the Four best houses in the block up the road now sold (both the end ones) so property is still moving. I will let you know when I consider the market to be in a "Crash Dive"

Beautiful morning in Kohimarama when I went to work. The Beach is very tempting for an evening swim or stroll. Properties are still selling here as well. Average of 103% of 2017 CV in November. December seems unlikely to be any different. My parents are selling a property on the Kapiti Coast in February. It will be interesting to see what interest they get, if any.

The key words are "Properties are still selling...". Surely a lot of people here would hate to know this LOL!

You're correct, DGZ.

There are a number of people here who deny reality.

Have a good day,

TTP

Anything will sell! Anything....it's only a matter of 'At what price?".
Those "Sold !!" stickers...are they Sellers, selling ( often indicating a falling market - Hit the Bid) or Buyer, buying ( a rising market - Just take the Offer!)? There is a quite a difference!

I went to what you would call a distressed sale open home this weekend, which the RE agents were very candid about. The owners are older and they have an adult kid in Oz who is ill and they need to sell and move to OZ to be with them.
The Agents said "They have spent $200k on renovations in addition the purchase price so know they are taking a hit". They purchased the house for $775k in 2007, 2015 RV is $920k and the trademe mid range estimate is $1.23 mil.

This is what all the bulls overlook. It is only the distressed sales (sickness, divorce, financial problems and investors that need to offload) that will be the first to show any movement lower in price. And a lot of "distressed sales" have been holding out, refusing lower offers over the last few months. The house I mention above in currently on with their 3rd agent and is going to auction tomorrow after sitting on the market since July. This seller has waited as long as they could for an offer and now have accepted that they need to take a lower price.

This is how it ALWAYS goes. There is nothing at all unusual about this. This is what happens in any correction. If there is going to be any drop in price, it will only start to show up via distressed sales, like the one I am following. And these take time to show up in the stats. If you don't need to sell in a soft market, you just hold out.
I honestly think, signs of this are maybe just appearing, so *if* there is a correction, we won't see it till March data, but might start to see a little decline in prices in Dec, Jan, Feb.

Agree, some of the bulls talk about things being sticky-up.. but they fail to mention when things that are sticky up let go... then gravity takes over and free-fall is the result. This is not what i want to see, i'm really hoping for 4-6 years of price stagnation and maybe a little up or down (3-4%/pa price falls would be good for me personally)

A nice solid home, albeit you can surmise the occupants are in their 60s by the decor. Some of that furniture is all but unsellable nowadays. Never heard of a ‘Gully’ kitchen. It doesn’t look like $200,000 has been poured into it, but then again who knows what it was like at the start. We had the option of moving back to Wellington when repatriating as we had a soft spot for Days Bay living. Luckily I couldn’t find a job and settled in Auckland instead. My wife just reminded me that we managed one scheduled bbq in 5 years in Days Bay. Beautiful when the weather is good. I’ve no current knowledge of the Wellington market. Was $1,230,000 ever realistic in that market?

I'd be very surprised if anyone here was upset that some properties are selling. The more interesting thing to look at is how many are selling relative to recent years.

Some of you property bears may think that you know what you are talking about!
However if you had any financial nous then you would have invested in decent property years ago by leveraging.
You would all be multi millionaires by now if you had purchased in Auckland.
Instead you spend your days on Here trying to put down property investors who are providing a needed service to People who don’t want to own property, and prefer to rent!

THE MAN 2, again, you are being precious suggesting you provide a needed service. If private investors were less present, social housing through central Government would. The only service you provide is to yourself - period.

Since you are quick to trash those who save using Kiwisaver and get $520 per person free from the Government together with free employer contributions, its you thats "been found wanting"

Like as you did with shares in the 80s, all your eggs are just in another basket and that's not smart.

I also had shares in various companies in Oct 87, Chase, Brierley, Landmark and others. I was fortunate enough that I saw worrying signals and pulled my money in time. I broke even. Just like today, red flags were popping up everywhere then too but many like you never saw the bust until after it came.

You remind me of someone promoting a "get rich quick", 80s style pyramid scheme who will conveniently go bush when it all implodes.