House prices took a dive in most parts of the country in January but prices were particularly soft in Auckland

Median house prices dropped significantly in most parts of the country in January, according to the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

The national median selling price for all residential properties sold in January was $520,000, down from $550,000 in December.

That was the lowest it has been since July last year, but remains above the January 2017 median of $485,000.

Of the 16 regions around the country, median prices were down compared to December in nine - Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Wellington, Nelson, West Coast, and Southland, up in five regions, Hawkes Bay, Manawatu-Whanganui, Taranaki, Marlborough and Otago, and unchanged in two - Tasman and Canterbury.

In Auckland the median price was $820,000 in January down from $861,000 in December and a tad below the January 2017 median of $830,000

The median price in Auckland has now fallen back considerably from its March 2017 peak of $905,000.

In the Waikato the median dropped back from its December 2017 record of $523,000 to $490,000 and in the Bay of Plenty it also dropped back from its December 2017 peak, from $598,000 to $535,000.

A similar trend was evident in Wellington where the median price hit a record $560,000 in December last year but dropped back to $500,000 last month.

In Canterbury the median price was unchanged from December at $435,000 but in Otago it was up strongly, rising from $400,000 in December last year to set a new record of $475,000 (see the interactive graph below for price trends in all regions).

However sales volumes held up a little better than prices, with the REINZ recording 4366 sales in January, up 2.7% compared to January last year.

However the only region to record a significant lift in sales compared to a year ago was Canterbury, where sales rose from 514 in January last year to 607 in many regions the increases were in single digits compared to a year earlier.

In Auckland 1157 properties were sold in January compared to 1147 in January 2017 and 1444 in January 2016, well below the months of January in 2013, 2014 and 2015, which all had sales well above 1600.

The overall pattern of a fall in median prices and sales volumes that were largely flat suggests many vendors may have accepted that the market had cooled when they put their property on the market in the New Year, and adjusted their price expectations accordingly.

But those who were hoping for an early uplift in prices in 2018 are likely to have been disappointed.

However vendors should expect their homes to take longer to sell, with the median days required to achieve a sale rising in all parts of the country except Northland last month compared to a year earlier.

In Auckland the median days to sell increased to 44 (from 41 in January), which is the longest it has been since 2011.

Here's the REINZ's full regional report for January:

PDF iconREINZ Monthly Property Report - January 2018.pdf

Median price - REINZ

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NZ total
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Northland
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Auckland
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Waikato
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Bay of Plenty
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Gisborne
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Hawke's Bay
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Manawatu
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We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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160 Comments

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It's happening.....

Where's Tony 'house prices will never fall' Alexander now????

Mr Alexander has a history of wrong predictions
My plumber & taxi driver made better predictions of the market last time I was in Kiwiland
I thought the leafy central Auckland & Coastal North Shore suburbs were immune to price decline ?
17 dead at school in Florida another tragic day in US.
Nite NZ

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No its not, look at that graph its only heading in one direction. Its "Happening" when we get a long term trend that shows it going down at the same rate its currently still going up.

The shit is ONLY going to hit the fan if interest rates start taking off and the over leveraged cannot afford the repayments.Until that happens we can go back to drinking our Champagne.

Sadly Carlos is correct. Its far too early to draw accurate conclusions.

Hurry up I want to buy some bargains
10yrTreasury yield hit 2.904% for 1st X in 4 yrs
Wait until Trumps massive overspend drives it above 3%
This is not like 4 yrs ago when it last happened this is a new paradigm in 2018
Interest rates will rise that’s a given.
By the way the VIX is being manipulated by algorithms too You cannot trust anything here

That's right. Also looking at the graph shows that EVERY January has seen significantly lower prices than the preceeding December. But people believe what they want to believe

Exactly its the same every year and you need to look at the long term trend. We need 6 months or even a year of nothing but downward movement before its worth worrying about. Those with their mortgage already paid off don't care either way if your selling and buying in the same market it makes no difference up or down. Don't get me wrong I see a housing correction on the horizon but increasing interest rates are good for me as a saver.

Agree. Bit more interesting is the Auckland trendline - how flat it's been since 2016. Will be interesting to see how it develops in this climate of change.

Technically speaking this is a trend change result with prices making a lower high and then a lower low; although the value of the lower low is 820K vs 821K so will probably be viewed as a 'test' of the lows, so confirmation from next months result will likely be used to discern trend and then the March data will also be important as it gives us our first year on year check to the high.
If February is materially below $820K and if March is below the interim low at $830K then the ambiguity will be gone and this will be recognized as a correction. If March is above $830K but below $880K/$905K it will remain ambiguous and if March is above $905K its still a rising market.

Good post. Does feel to early to call. The increase in selling days looks significant, but I don't have the background knowledge to know how significant.

Need to read this in conjunction with other reports such as realestate.co which indicate an increase in supply also. It is easy to wait to pick a winner after the race has been run so time will confirm the trend but if I was looking to sell (e.g. a rental property or was moving out of town and not rebuying) then I don't think I would have the luxury of looking at the trend in six months time; rather I would be looking at some urgency to sell.

Its very likely that the trend will be confirmed in only 1 or 2 months time. Never the less if you need to sell then now is not a bad time to do so.

RickStrauss, days to sell - historical context for you - https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/days-sell

Thanks, mate, that's really informative - especially the Auckland-specific graph.

Plot a moving annual total series which eliminates a lot of noise and " what's happening " is the upward trend is continuing.

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11

... but I thought SUMMER was supposed to give Auckland an increase in sales activity and higher prices?

Or do we have to wait until Chinese New Year?

.. someone's been lying .. very wrong in their predictions ..

Haven't you heard yet? The heat wave has been keeping buyers out of the market.

It was not so long ago that someone on the papers said Auckland property would go "bananas".... I wonder what he will say now???

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OMG, who would have thought... "In Auckland the median price was $820,000 in January down from $861,000 in December and a tad below the January 2017 median of $830,000"

this would never have been possible if the national led government was still in power.. the speculators would never have let this happen...

National leader Bill English: “The voters have spoken and now we have the responsibility of working to give New Zealand a strong and stable government.”

Bill delivered on his promise.

Also in the link below I've never seen someone so happy to lose their job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWdLQI_RtHc

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11

I wonder how the usual vested interests Gibson et al will spin this...

A bit of negative sideways growth something something Chinese New Year

Do you mean the fact that the median house price has risen 8% over the year from $485'000 to $520'000 ? Or did you (and the numerous thumbs up) miss that because of the picture of the house about to fall down the cliff and the (mis)leading headline?

Is that real estate agent maths? My calculator says its only 7.21%

I can't speak for others, but for me only the cost of housing in Auckland matters.

What brings much hope to us long suffering younger folk is that prices have now reverted back to what they were 23 months ago and seem likely to fall further over the coming months and years.

That's a 9.4% drop from peak and counting, it must be an awfully nervous time to be highly leveraged on Auckland property right now watching this equity bonfire, or to be a poor sod who makes a living flogging them off second hand.

The emotional response is quite normal.

Soft landing then ?

Right now we might have a chance of a soft landing. I'm more concerned with the US Government saturating the debt market pushing up interest rates, and then add the fears of high inflation in the US which will push up interest rates more.

Let's hope for a calm sentiment.

The results on the Economic Calendar tell a different tale

So the last time Auckland median prices were this low was February 2016.

its just the start..

That is massive, almost 2 years ago.

I wonder if January can be volatile being in the holiday season, be interesting to see if February follows suite.

I have noticed a number of houses in central suburbs on trade me that have been on the market for months with "vendor doesn't want 2 properties", "vendor says sell", "vender has already bought" Etc. Sooner or later they have to meet the market.

The smart money is quietly exiting the market. Interest rate rises are coming and it won't be pretty.

Depends on how much of a rise. Personally I think it will be very small. More likely the "smart" money has seen the possibility of big rises are gone and tax free profits being zero.

@Brock Landers Evidence?

Fed expects to raise rates three times this year.

Cowpat: Feb 2017 $821k vs Jan 2018 $820, a drop of 0.1%

Feb 2017 was the last time median prices hit 820K, 1 year ago.

So much to fix ed.

"However the only region to record a significant lift in sales compared to a yera ago wa sCanetrbury, where slaes rose from 514 in january last year to 607 laIn many regiosn the incareses were in single digits compared to a yera eralier."

If the numbers do not stack up confuse the reader with gibberishhh.

Grammarly!

Christchurch is going to boom in the years to come.
Extremely affordable for home buyers and offers quality lifestyle!
Wish they would quote Chch prices rather than Canterbury as they don’t quote North Auckland prices amalgamated with Auckland!

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Affordable and getting more affordable by the day The Boy. You can smell the fear and frustration on your breath. Why did you not diversify and buy some investments in Dunedin and The Lakes. I recall challenging you to do that but of course in your arrogant and ignorant manner you knew better. You need to sit down with someone who really knows what they are doing as they could help you to think outside the square. You owe it to your family to get some financial advice as you are missing out on so many opportunities outside of poor old Christchurch.

gordon and The Man 2 ...on 'Fight for Life'. I'd donate. Chuckle of the day following your two. :)

completely agree

It’s true. The people there will have more money, because they aren’t lumbered by massive mortgages, and they will be able to spend that money in the local economy. There will be less social issues because people can afford homes. Lower house prices is a massive comparative advantage. If I was setting up a business I’d do it in Christchurch.

Needs the jobs...

I hope you're right about that Christchurch boom but I suspect not. It must still be Christmas in Christchurch because when I look around all I see is For Lease Navidad. Vacant offices = no jobs = no more easy money for you. Sections are now taking months to sell.

It's just an oscillation.

I'm seeing a very clear head-and-shoulders reversal pattern in the Auckland chart.

Following my morning constitutional tasseography I'm seeing a clear lump, then several smaller clumps with a few singular nodes - a very clear sign that this market needs more fibre

Secret to buying in Auckland.... Buy at the bottom. Stand by that could be 6 months or 3 years away. No rush right now.

Oh that was naughty. He is (was) a prize jerk. Good riddance.

Brock, great post..ha ha..

Hmmm and when it blows up the carnage will be even more widespread & multi-generational.

of course you cannot ever lose on property......can you?

Thanks for the great link Brock.

This is a decent start but the ideal case would be a long term very steady decline (e.g. minor declines every year for the forseeable future). This would be the lowest risk to the economy as well as reducing attractiveness of property as an investment in general.

To get back to anywhere near the long term average ratios for income and yields would require decades of such gentle declines. The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero. It’s just completely implausible.

Think of a hot air balloon, rising at full speed with the gas fully on. Starts running out of gas, what happens?

I've never been in that situation, but I'd assume at first a gentle descent until the hot air in the balloon dissipates and you enter free fall to the ground.

The housing market is the balloon, the ground is the long term average ratio. The only way it would be a gentle decline is if you had more gas available to control the descent. Gas in this case would be foreign money because there's no way local wages can keep it afloat.

If someone can tell me where this foreign money will come from given we are at peak QE then i'm all ears. Is there a back up gas canister that will keep this balloon going?

"The housing market is the balloon" errr.. no it's not. lol

Except FHBers who paid top dollar in the last few years stand to lose 10'sofK. Imagine even with a gentle decline buying a house at $600k and 25 years from now its worth 500k before you consider inflation at say 2% and you have paid about 6% interest in that as well.

Young people who are unable to get into a house with be happy. Property prices going down sounds like the new property prices going up in terms of "keeping the voters happy".

Except how many banks are going to want to lend in a falling market?

Their business is lending. It will just have a lot of strings attached, hi equity, hi rates etc etc.

Sure they will, except instead of today's 96% for 30 years it will be 50% max plus an insurance premium.

So I'd suggest its more likely few will be buying.

The same report and same announcement in the link below. Can you spot the difference?? - will it change your mood ?? , As usual, the devil is in the details...But,
I thought professional journalism and reporting should be impartial and comprehensive rather than incomplete and selective !! ... Why does sharechat.co.nz tell the story as it is and others don't ?? ... Please read the link below and compare for yourselves ...

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3513e8b7/nz-house-sales-rise-in-janua...

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The difference is that one is a copy and pasted press release from REINZ chief shill Bindi Norwell?

There is no need to be a doomster. It's great that housing has begun its long slide back to affordability!

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A desperate attempt to be positive which is a requirement of the role

Eco , out of curiosity explain Bindi's first sentence.

Are we reading the same thing? Bindi's release doesn't look that positive overall either, apart from a couple of the introductory statements.

In Auckland, the number of properties sold increased 0.9 percent year-on-year to 1,157.

Canterbury had a decent increase in volume, pleasing HE MAN.

The median number of days it took to sell a property - a gauge of underlying demand - increased to 46 from 41 days in January 2017, the highest median number of days it's taken to sell a property since February 2012.

Devil in the detail.

Auckland's house price index increased 0.1 percent versus January 2017.

Small demon in the detail.

Auckland’s median price decreased by 1.2 percent to $820,000 down from $830,000 at the same time last year.

Bigger demon, but missing any reference to Auckland's peak median - which Interest has provided.

The number of properties available for sale nationally increased by 7 percent to 25,503 versus the prior January. Excluding Auckland, the number of properties available for sale increased by 1.1 percent to 16,824.

Balrog in the detail. If there's not much increase once you take Auckland out, most of the increase is in Auckland.

Otago’s record price for January was driven by a strong increase in Clutha and the Central Otago District – up 53.4 percent and 39.4 percent respectively,” says Norwell.

Aucklanders who have cashed up already and bought lifestyle blocks?

h...what about this doooozy bit of nonsense!! 'Clearly" make believe logic.

“January can often be a quiet month for the industry as people spend much of their time at the beach or the bach. However, clearly the warmer weather has helped sales,"

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this a big red flag blowing an ill wind
The median number of days it took to sell a property - a gauge of underlying demand - increased to 46 from 41 days in January 2017, the highest median number of days it's taken to sell a property since February 2012

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11

Eco Bird, um, house prices are falling.

Actually median house price rose from $485 to $520k = 8% over the last 12 months.. It's in the report above (it's just not that obvious as this article is more focused on the showing the market is going down).

STILL MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES UP 8% FROM $485k to $520k OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Yvil, (sigh) if only house price stats WERE collected once a year (say only every January) then you could get away with selling this off as a good news story.

House prices are now falling month on month in most regions.

RP, look at the graph, it shows January prices have dropped EVERY year over the preceeding December. Have a good look. Its like saying Hooray cause the March prices will be higher than the January prices are now, it happens EVERY year. The only meaningful measure is a comparison with the same month

Yvil, if you read ALL the article ;-)

When these price stats are combined with increased days to sell then they mean more than just the usual January blip. Auckland has the highest days to sell since 2011. It's clearly reported that vendors are being more realistic with their asking prices and this might have helped prop up volumes a bit.

Soon the spruikers "explanations well" will runneth dry. It won't be long before house prices on a nationwide basis are in negative territory year on year.

Like i've said before, FHB should wait because time is firmly on their side.

There you go R P, you should be able to understand this, courtesy of mfd:
.
Here are the figures demonstrating the statistical January effect, of reduced median prices for January versus December one month earlier. Preceeding 5 years, 3 had a larger percentage decline and 2 had a smaller decline. Upshot is you cannot read anything into these figures as even during rabid boom, typically Jan median >5% lower than previous month.

2018 -5.5%
2017 -6.6%
2016 -3.3%
2015 -6.4%
2014 -6.2%
2013 -5.1%

Yvil - clearly this is in the weeds type stuff. Have you noticed the inverse correlation between declining interest rates since the 1980's and ever increasing house prices?

Have you also noticed that many think interest rates have turned and we're starting a new cycle as inflation rises?

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/91688/roger-j-kerr-says-us-inflation-an...

You can guess what risks this might have on house prices? The system is all linked together. Sure if managed poorly and we go into recession again interest rates might fall - but if managed well - we may slowly see interest rates rise - for years or decades...who knows...house prices could take a real thrashing as they simply won't be affordable at current prices against increasing lending rates...

But it's important we all know house prices dip in Jan of course because that's what they've done for the last 5 years.

Median, not mean....

I was going to ask for the p-value on that statistic.. but if nobody knows what the T value is then I think I'll leave it.

Who was the bull commentator on here who made the predication that July 2017 would prove to be in the bottom of the Auckland housing market?

...and this is the best the peak season of real estate has to offer. Its proving more like the beginnings of a very long winter.

And Fletcher's sounds like they have plenty of room to get building residential!

Well it costs Fletchers a lot of money to build, they're like Landlords providing a charitable service but they aren't feeling too charitable at the moment.

Just a minor slip. Wait till you see how it slides and be amazed. The end of the cliff is near.

When sovereign funds backs off property and debt investments due to increasing risks, playing with OCR is like having a match for light in a cyclone. And it's already happening, though there's a lag before the full on effect.

Finally the end times are upon us! I for one am looking heavenward, ready to divest myself of this mortal coil and ascend into the heavens where I shall have a range of options on some not quite insubstantial mansions in a gated community with a venerable Saint providing 24/7 security and vetting.

Sorry, there's been a policy change due to inequitable outcomes. We are all going to Purgatory.

Damn Catholics!

Ash Wednesday was yesterday, not a lot of Catholics house buying during Lent...

Just wish there would be a hard reset, wipe out a few speculators and dent the banks earnings, they can afford it. More preferable to a long drawn out decline. Iceland did it right.

But..but ..but... Granny Herald is saying houses are on the way up??

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=1199...

Is some one telling porkies?

Well median house prices are up 8% yoy from $485k to $520k. It's in the article above

Yeah but what about the nice ones

A couple of observations in central east akl. A jump in listings last 2 weeks, almost all auctions and some are relists from last year. Opportunities out there but why buy now? The foreign buyer ban will leave a big price hole that cant be filled by residents, what then.

The realisation that we should have stopped it years ago when the xenophobes, negative nellies and just plain green eyed monsters were saying we should.

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I was always told the family home/your house is not an investment. Sounds bizarre I know. It's the bloody place you live!! I hope the rampant investor type gets hit hard.

Another headline could have been: "House prices up 8% for the year in January 2018"

lol Yvil, why spoil the great narrative of the Crash ... people here are having a party ...and building pies in the sky !!

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You can clearly see from the graph Eco Birdy that Auckland's property prices are still falling.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

To interpret this as anything other than a plateau is misleading. However, if prices were rising, and then they have plateaued, this represents a major adjustment. What was true a couple of years ago is no longer true.

If our government successfully starts a massive house building boom perhaps with government guarantees. Would this not keep our banks solvent due to the need for ever new mortgages as conversely property prices of our current stock start to relate to what our own citizens can afford. Of course some would be financially hurt in the process but by far the greater majority of our citizens and businesses must benefit from a saved economy. Such a program might even save a perhaps (part?) nationalised Fletcher Building from serious financial problems. Of course such a program would frighten the **** out of our property spruikers.

Furthermore, as our workers had more spending power due to paying much lower rents or mortgages then surely our economy would boom. Residential land prices could also reduce without causing an economic collapse. Government subsidies such as accomodation supplements would no longer be needed.

This is why I keep trawling through the prodigious comment here. It’s becoming my daily fix. It goes without saying, by simple extrapolation from our little microcosm, why the world is so ‘interesting’ hence why we are @ interest.co.nz

The problem with these reports is there is no visibility of the types of dwellings being bought and sold. One month could see several $3M+ estates being sold, the next could see several $400k townhouses being sold, skewing that month one way or the other. House prices coming down is only a good thing if you're paying less for the same quality.

The REINZ Index does attempt to provide that. It's a little bit down year on year in Auckland, before accounting for inflation.

True, there is the price distribution breakdown, but trawling homes.co.nz can sometimes give a better idea (albeit delayed by months) of how quality vs price is shaping up

Here are the figures demonstrating the statistical January effect, of reduced median prices for January versus December one month earlier. Preceeding 5 years, 3 had a larger percentage decline and 2 had a smaller decline. Upshot is you cannot read anything into these figures as even during rabid boom, typically Jan median >5% lower than previous month.

2018 -5.5%
2017 -6.6%
2016 -3.3%
2015 -6.4%
2014 -6.2%
2013 -5.1%

Retired Poppy, other doomsayers, comment please?

Yvil, salivating over January blips being a regular occurrence is just foolish. This weakness has been playing out for some time now. It's just the beginning of a long overdue adjustment that hopefully does not morph into a crash.

Focus on the increased days to sell. Finding confident buyers (or bigger fools) in this soft market for the other 11 months of this year will prove to be as equally frustrating for vendors.

You mean against those who have their heads in the sand saying it's not happening - lalalalalalalalala

Nice copy and paste of Yvils previous post - are you one in the same....

Could that be that the masses are on Xmas/NY/School holiday/AKL Ann holiday weekends and people would rather go to the beach and have a holiday with their family than sit and crunch numbers and buy property whilst taking up holiday time to go to open homes? Seriously, lets look at a longer trend when it happens and get a better picture. Some are fixated on the daily articles too much...have they speculated or something?

Carlos, people,that have no mortgage owing are not utilising their equity in their home.
Interest rates are going to be around this level for ever and we should be borrowing against our home to provide asset producing income.

You don’t get ahead working for wages or sitting on an unencumbered home.

Speculate to accumulate as they say is dead right.

THE MAN 2, you are incorrect. Having paid no more than $5K in interest my entire life, paid cash for my house and built significant savings, I have been able to retire early by choice and am still building up my kiwisaver. I also have the capital to own my own rental portfolio, if I was that way inclined ;-)

I suggest your version of speculating to accumulate while using other people's money, is an opportunists way of playing for quick gains for minimal work involved. As a property speculator, do you have the financial resilience to ride the big falls as easily as the recent rises?

Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong whatsoever with borrowing to invest. Its when greed becomes the overriding factor - I have an issue with it. Especially when it involves unproductive assets like houses and not factories.

Those FHB who knuckle down and save, wait for this long term correction to play out, won't regret it.

His post certainly highlights that it makes zero sense taxing workers so much while letting speculators enjoy tax free money gains.

Those FHB who knuckle down and save, wait for this long term correction to play out, won't regret it.

Oh yes they will regret it and very much so, because they will end up never owning a house, just like you R P

Yvil, yikes, I can sense the venom in your comment. Why are you so against FHB waiting, saving up hard?

I do own my home outright, my wife and I saved up and paid cash for it so your dead wrong on that count. Overheads are low. Unlike yourself, leveraged up with interest only loans, I haven't paid more than $5K interest in my entire life. I know, it sounds boring but my family prospered because of it.

Might be time for you to start paying some principle, accumulate equity the hard way now that capital gains are over ;-)

I seem to recall Yvil is a RE agent, so he may be relying on commissions to top up the payments on his poor yeilds from the rentals. Or maybe he's seen the light and is trying to quit a few rentals before the downturn proper and is just waiting to find a bigger fool.

Most people who have taken out interest only loans since 2012 won't be able to pay principle and interest when it comes time to pay the banking piper. Most interest only terms are for 5 years maximum, depending on how real estate prices are stacking up when it comes to the end of the "interest only period". There will be many poor sods who will find out that reading the fine print before signing their loan docs might have saved them from their own financial demise. But hindsight is a virtue and reality is a bitch. The interest only period might last 5 years but after that, principle and interest payments kick into line and keep within the original length of the term loan. So after 5 years of paying interest only, there is a huge sudden increase in the monthly repayment figure to ensure that the original loan is still paid off in full by the time of the original maturity date. This is when the average person realises how big the hole is that they have dug out for themselves.

They can just put the rent up.......lol.....

Although those on a 5 year term coming up for renewal would have made a massive capital gain. So probably time for them to cash up.

Its the people who bought in Auckland in the last 18 months on interest only that have the real decisions to make...

THE MAN 2, do you put money into Kiwisaver? Its a smart investment accumulating 50c for every $1 put in. Then theres the investment returns on top of that!

So over the last 10 years, if you had put all your money into KIWI saver vs property what would have been the better investment RP?

Multi-choice question. You don't need to worry about house prices dropping when which of the following events are occuring?

a) Its Chinese New Year.
b) There's an election coming up.
c) Its January
d) Foreign buyers leave the market.
e) Interest rates are at all time lows.
f) All of the above.

Multi-choice question 2. You do need to worry about house prices droping when which of the followin events are occuring?

a) Inflation might be back and interest rates could rise.
b) Debt levels are at all time highs.
c) Propellor Property Investment radio adverts tell you that now is a good time to make money in the housing market.
d) You've just made $500,000 in capital gains in 5 years on your rental in Manukau.
e) All of the above.

Sheesh what does Yvil have a bee in her bonnet or something? Spouting off “mean” figures when it’s median, focusing on national “mean” prices when it’s the Auckland median price that’s down...

DID YOU READ THE REPORT YVIL?

Mja referred to 'Median'

Yeah at least MJA can read. I suppose if you work yourself up while foaming at the mouth like YVIL does then you’re bound to make errors along the way.

Every time a property report comes out there’s foaming from both sides i.e. bears and bulls. None of it seems to come from actual buyers or sellers so they are likely trying to read noise. The local agent told me he sold 20 plus properties in 1071 over the last year, only one of which was to a foreigner. He has two new listings in Kohi and said he’ll sell them easily. I’ll watch those carefully, just because I know I can get more info.

Never Fear DGZ Is Here!
QV Feb 2018 MEDIAN Values (Top 20)

1 Herne Bay $2,620,100.00
2 St Marys Bay $2,284,500.00
3 Remuera $2,112,050.00
4 Stanley Point $2,012,050.00
5 Campbells Bay $1,986,400.00
6 Orakei $1,913,700.00
7 Epsom $1,902,550.00
8 Westmere $1,890,850.00
9 Mission Bay $1,871,850.00
10 St Heliers $1,769,450.00
11 Ponsonby $1,766,300.00
12 Kohimarama $1,751,250.00
13 Takapuna $1,747,400.00
14 Devonport $1,723,300.00
15 Glendowie $1,713,700.00
16 Parnell $1,645,500.00
17 Mellons Bay $1,637,850.00
18 Castor Bay $1,618,100.00
19 Narrow Neck $1,568,400.00
20 Murrays Bay $1,520,400.00

DGZ, do you have the previous figures for comparison?

Yes I certainly do. Here's the comparison Feb 2017 / Feb 2018 / Percentage +/-

1 Herne Bay $2,468,000.00 $2,620,100.00 6.16%
2 St Marys Bay $2,271,550.00 $2,284,500.00 0.57%
3 Remuera $2,019,550.00 $2,112,050.00 4.58%
4 Stanley Point $2,018,950.00 $2,012,050.00 -0.34%
5 Campbells Bay $1,872,900.00 $1,986,400.00 6.06%
6 Orakei $1,761,150.00 $1,913,700.00 8.66%
7 Westmere $1,842,100.00 $1,890,850.00 2.65%
8 Epsom $1,865,300.00 $1,902,550.00 2.00%
9 Mission Bay $1,763,050.00 $1,871,850.00 6.17%
10 Ponsonby $1,743,400.00 $1,766,300.00 1.31%
11 St Heliers $1,701,700.00 $1,769,450.00 3.98%
12 Kohimarama $1,724,700.00 $1,751,250.00 1.54%
13 Takapuna $1,700,000.00 $1,747,400.00 2.79%
14 Devonport $1,676,700.00 $1,723,300.00 2.78%
15 Glendowie $1,649,900.00 $1,713,700.00 3.87%
16 Parnell $1,562,300.00 $1,645,500.00 5.33%
17 Castor Bay $1,621,950.00 $1,618,100.00 -0.24%
18 Mellons Bay $1,620,150.00 $1,637,850.00 1.09%
19 Narrow Neck $1,531,850.00 $1,568,400.00 2.39%
20 Murrays Bay $1,491,750.00 $1,520,400.00 1.92%

Thanks DGZ,

Clearly, Auckland's most sought-after suburbs have increased in value over the last 12 months. That comes as no surprise.

DGZ - you've spoiled things for all the doom and gloom merchants above. )-;

TTP

Clearly wages don't support those prices. Those medians need to come down by about 600K.

FP

How can that spoil things, Im concerned with average NZers, fixing up homelessness, reducing hospital ques, reducing immigration, educating our youth, setting up training schemes for young.

Those areas are not your average Auckland properties, it means nothing in context of things, but the median does, Aucklands median is coming down. If the rich get poorer by selling inflated properties to each other knock yourself out, all your doing is making your houses more expensive for each other, as long as the median comes down and FHB can get on the ladder then thats great.

It seems to me that the US inflation rate is increasing and they are talking about increasing interest rates, wonder if this will have an impact on interest rates in NZ as the cost of funding may increase, not to mention foreign buyers being frozen out of the market, time will tell what will happen in the future. Its not looking that great at the moment considering the high rate of growth in the last couple of years has come to a grinding halt.

It gets more interesting by the day.

"If the rich get poorer by selling inflated properties to each other knock yourself out, all your doing is making your houses more expensive for each other"

well said @swapacrate!

they are living in their own little bubble which has little relevance to the bigger Auckland picture

DGZ I’m impressed by the rigour of your statistical analysis however might I suggest that when quoting differences in median, the sample size will impact the trustworthiness of the statistic. How many houses have been sold in Kohimarama in the last 3 weeks?

I’d assume a few of those suburbs would be averaging a couple of sales a month

Fat pat, all should be revealed in the next month. I know of two elevated North facing properties, one of which has sea views with no issues coming on the market in the $2 million plus range. I’ll follow up with the agent to see exactly what the demand is and what prices are achieved.

Auckland saw 1,157 houses sold in Jan18 and 1,752 sold in Dec17. Compare to Jan17 where 1,147 sold. It's likely that a fair number sold in all areas recently.

TTP you really are a smug little slime ball aren’t you. I picture you as one of those Grammar drop outs that transferred to Selwyn and now rocks around in ankle length suit trousers and tan overland shoes

Go easy on him, he's not been his normal self so far this year. maybe he's had some of the wind knocked out of his sails.

I almost disagree with everything TTP posts but find it quite entertaining to read his tripe and trying to visualize what type of person he must be.

TTP you really are a smug little slime ball aren’t you. I picture you as one of those Grammar drop outs that transferred to Selwyn and now rocks around in ankle length suit trousers and tan overland shoes

Selwyn has changed. Carol White was ousted a decade ago and the school has flourished as it now serves its community, not the lefty agenda.

Selwyn College, Selwyn Ave, Selwyn Reserve - I love it!!

Indeed, those slurs a bit passe, (except for the lefty agenda bit, which to be frank is a poor low blow and not entirely necessary nor applicable to the point you're making, you're better than that Ex-Expat) Sheryl Offner has done a remarkable job turning it around - latest results put it on a par with Westlake and the DGZ schools, a friend of mine's child is at EGGs and absolutely despises it -bullying, cliques, drugs, alcohol - whereas my daughter is throughly enjoying Selwyn.

I thoroughly enjoyed the cooking classes at Selwyn and will definitely go back for more!

Im surprised that you left your house, that must have been uncomfortable for you

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074236/

Stick with facts Tui12 not name calling. DGZ, TTP, The Man 2 and Yvil are just doing what many governments in the past have encouraged including the Labour Govt.

PKchew, what's comical about DGZ, Zachary, TTP, The Man 2 and Yvil is that if house prices crashed they would be arguing it out with the growing number of "Doomsters" that prices were still up on what they were 10 years ago - lol!

Cold comfort to first home buyers with underwater mortgages!

This is getting boring. Way more interested in how to make profitable investments.

Im not going to sell my house (I live in it). Share prices looked pretty maxed. Block chain and cryptocurrency look like the future, but bitcoin and similar are a total ponzi.

Give me some ideas on where to put my spare money!

Hookers and blow.

I was going to suggest erotic robots?
Healthcare robots maybe. I quite fancy being looked after by robots when I'm old and infirm. Apparently Japan is going to do this rather than open the immigration floodgate.

Thats what charlie Sheen would do

Hookers, blow, fembots, motorbikes???
It was, if I recall, smashed avos that got us here in the first place. I’d love to know how any of the former are going to offset my smashed avo addiction.

Buy a motorbike and live a bit