The number of homes coming up for auction is starting to decline as the main summer selling season starts to wind down

The number of homes coming up for auction is starting to decline as the main summer selling season starts to wind down
This three bedroom house on 1 hectare at Matamata sold for $572,000.

The number of homes being put up for auction is starting to wind down as we head towards autumn and the end of the peak summer selling season.

Last week Bayleys marketed 47 residential properties for auction, spread across Auckland, the Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Havelock North and Marlborough. It achieved sales on 17 of them, giving an overall sales clearance rate of 36%.

At the Auckland auctions prices achieved ranged from $822,000 for a three bedroom/two bathroom, brick and tile house at Flat Bush to $3.75 million for a large four bedroom house in Parnell.

At the Hamilton auction prices started at $572,000 for a three bedroom brick house on a hectare of land at Matamata, and at the Tauranga auction just three properties were scheduled for auction but two were withdrawn, leaving a two bedroom property at Greerton which sold for $450,000.

In Havelock North a large, two level home in the centre of town sold under the hammer for $845,000, and in Marlborough prices ranged from $400,000 to $1.55 million.

Details and photos of the properties offered and the prices achieved on individual properties that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

You can receive all of our property articles automatically by subscribing to our free email Property Newsletter. This will deliver all of our property-related articles, including auction results and interest rate updates, directly to your in-box 3-5 times a week. We don't share your details with third parties and you can unsubscribe at any time. To subscribe just click on this link, scroll down to "Property email newsletter" and enter your email address.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

61 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).
10
up

Trade me listings for properties in Auckland now above 12400 and rising

Selling season is winding up and its been another dismal month for auction results.

can only see downward pressure on prices in the short to medium term

How offensive, now go and wash your mouth..LOL

Where's the property spruikers...? Hard sell?

The spruikers will be out painting their rentals & fixing holes in walls etc
They’ll be reciting over & over “Auckland property only goes up “ before bed each night

"achieved 36%" would be better to say "struggled to sell 36%"

Auction up the road from me yesterday took about 2 hrs to finally wrap up according to one neighbor. Finally settled 50k below the sellers reserve, 50k above RV.

These media releases on property auctions come thick and fast. Hell, we're in the age of "big data", so surely there must be a better measure that would be more newsworthy and relevant. Corelogic in Australia has a fancy hedonic index that factors in a range of different variables that changes on a daily basis. Surely that would be much more useful, even as a media tool. Perhaps sales volume are too small for accuracy.

A daily hedonic index is a huge waste of time. Especially for property.
In fact it would be hard to imagine any situation where a daily hedonic index is ever necessary for tangible goods.

With big data such things are easily possible.
Whether they are necessary or useful is another question.

A daily hedonic index is a huge waste of time

Would you like to explain why?

Because hedonic indices are really crap in data poor environments. Plus a daily index is pointless in the case of a durable good such as property. No one worries about market timing down to the day when purchasing property.

Best to opt for lower variance and just use the monthly hedonic index.
Just because you have the data, it doesn't mean that you should use it to make pointless models.

I've seen work done on weekly indices for the Sydney market based on CoreLogic data and using some pretty trick spatial models and the outcome is that there is very little advantage to their usage over standard robust monthly hedonic indices. This work was well beyond the scope of CoreLogic analysts, so hence my scepticism towards the CoreLogic exercise in futility.

OK thanks. I get what you're saying but the daily index is iterative across many similar data points, therefore therefore the variance should not be any greater than the monthly hedonic index. Yes, I do agree that there is little value in these indexes for the average punter, but my point still remains: what value do these media releases about property auctions have over a larger quantitative data set with an actual methodology?

I don't understand what you mean by iterative across many similar data points.

Variance will be higher in lower observation count sample data due to the ratio of observations to parameters estimated. The best way to decrease variance is to increase sample size or decrease parametisation.
So, no...I general variance in a hedonic estimations based for a daily index (with low observation count) is always going to be higher than variance on estimates for a monthly index (30 times more observations). That isn't even before we start correcting errors for crappy variance properties.

Given the choice of forming an expectation based on daily data or monthly data at a point in time, the monthly data estimate will be, generally speaking, more accurate.

Ideally a hedonic index is most accurate when there is systematic variance in data points. You do not want a hedonic specification (or any linear projection matrix) with little variation in the parameter vectors. The whole idea of a hedonic specification is to estimate the marginal utility of specific characteristics of attributes associated with a good. It's that that forms the basis for the constant quality price estimations.

I don't know what approach they use for estimating the hedonic specifications, though. Could be time dummy or imputation. Probably the latter. In which case the variance will be lower and likely rooted to the monthly variance.

Your point is correct though... Anyone who gets drawn into drawing conclusions from these results is just fooling themselves.

So, no...I general variance in a hedonic estimations based for a daily index (with low observation count) is always going to be higher than variance on estimates for a monthly index (30 times more observations)

But that's the point. The sample size on a single day is calibrated across the whole data set. It is not sum(n=30) vs sum(n=300,000). For ex, if the sample for the daily index is 30 sales of 3 br / 2 bath, the data is calibrated and weighted as such relative to whole data set. That's a basic explanation, but that's how the Corelogic index works. It's a regression, so different factors impact the index, not simply the sales price vs the past.

That depends on the hedonic approach.
If it is the case of a time dummy approach. Maybe.
In the case of an imputation approach. Definitely Not.
From the (brief) read I had, they specifically refer to an imputation methodology.
https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/rp-data-corelogic-home-value-index...

I don't know what you mean about weighting and calibration to a whole data set. Those words have a very different meaning to how you are using them.

Again, the premise of a hedonic specification is to reveal price based on characteristics of observed transactions in a given period. There is no weighting because it would be structurally unjustified. The only correction would be to standard errors. But they don't report them, anyway.

As you say, it's a simple regression (your understanding of that seems to be a bit different to the mathematical process. i.e. simply the price data is projected onto a simple surface of characteristic variables to reveal an index from the estimation procedure (in the case of the time dummy approach) and/or hedonic coefficients (in the case of an imputation approach).

I will explain. In the daily index, if the sample comprises houses that share characteristics like 3 bedrooms / 3 bathrooms (for example), the data is "weighted" accordingly so that the daily index is representative of all factors. Therefore, the index is an estimate. You might want to read the relevant source materials. Read 2.1 to 2.5 so you understand what it's about.

You say you don't understand "weighting" and "calibration". You say there is no weighting. This a hedonic regression, therefore each independent variable impacts on the index. For ex, if the coefficient for "3 bedrooms" is 0.12, that is the relative impact it has on the total housing stock.

https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2017-09/CL17_CoreLogicI...

You honestly do not know what you are talking about.
The hedonic index isn't weighted - that's the point. It is estimating price based on the sum of the utility bearing characteristics of the good. It is then applying the estimated marginal effects of that specification to a constant sample of characteristics.
It controls for changes in composition and quality this way - hence no need for any 'weighting' or 'calibration'.

The conflict is your misunderstanding of 'weighting' and 'calibration' in the statistical terminology.

Just wait for the monthly REINZ report and have a look at the HPI. That is as far as i can see the best refelction of what the market is really doing, and it accounts for the changing mix of properties sold so you don't need to worry about that.

The REINZ index is a hedonic index..

yes, but its monthly. That is regular enough, no point in doing it daily or weekly. Unless you want to get the depressed spruikers to commit hari-kari as the prices drop when a black swan drops in for a visit.

I find it both amusing and offensive when using hari kari for a possible suggested end for property spruikers. It takes tremendous resolve to commit ritual sucide, something property spruikers can never have. Most likely they will just die of shock.

Hedonic huh J.C . How religious in letters
You’re living in NZ
You don’t even have a map of the country with houses for sale on each street with fully detailed past sales & property taxes etc yet !

Hedonic indexes are based on actual sales, not houses listed for sale. However, with depth of data, that could be a relevant factor in weighting data.

I seems that auctions are coming to an end of their use. The figures of the summer were not that great either.

Auctions are of less relevance during softer trading conditions........

But some people are slow to learn.......

And others never learn.

TTP

10
up

realestate.co.nz @ 13,531 and rising, silly buying season behind us. TTP is right, vendors are slow to learn. Buyers are spoilt for choice and their enthusiasm towards property as an investment is clearly starting to wane. Prices will continue to drift down.

..trademe Hmailton. 23/3/17 607 lisitngs. Today 26/6/18 we have 742. Thats a 22% rise in 12 months. In the countray, rentals avaialbe are down 428 to 350. Interesting times.

R-P: It would be fallacious to think that softer trading conditions automatically lead to falling prices......

Vendors might simply refuse to sell - which has often been the case with the NZ housing market.

Finally, there has been no robust evidence of a slide in NZ house prices. In fact, a strong balance of evidence shows that house prices are holding remarkably well - despite the upswing of 2014 - 2016.

TTP

It’s ridiculous to think that burgeoning listings and anemic sales will not lead to lower prices.

At this stage you couldn't describe the listings as burgeoning though...
TradeMe has sat in the 12,000's for weeks now.

Compared to average listings of what? Year on year? I believe b&t listing total was 8 year high...

It's not particularly high MisterB. I think it was something like 20,000 in 2008.

It’s still the highest since 2010, so not sure it’s accurate to say “not particularly high”

To me "highest since 2010" reads as "not particularly high" as I don't recall it being a concern back then. You have to keep in mind that around 1,600 properties are selling every month in Auckland currently.
The headline of this article states, "The number of homes coming up for auction is starting to decline..." so I was kind of questioning the burgeoning thing.

I guess we disagree then. The number is much higher than recent years and I guess time will tell how stale the stock gets

Not as high as it has been previously for sure but it wasn’t so long ago that you were crowing about the numbers being sub-10k.

And some might have to sell...and others may politely be asked by their bank at re-fixing time to perhaps reduce their portfolio after revaluation to keep them within there lending criteria..

Have we forgotten that the only reason auctions have been the norm in New Zealand & Australia is because they are inflated markets? I was listening to a podcast by a hedge fund manager from the US talking about the Canadian and Australian housing bubbles, and he mentioned how incredible and abnormal it is that Australia auctions houses like expensive paintings. No surprise auction results will be low and likely all but disappear as the market tanks.

Well I'd like to think you're correct. But I fear you are not.

Auctions work really well for agents in down times too. It's a system that works to condition the vendor downwards.

Yea,talk it up for the marketing period,then just prior to auction,the pressure comes on...the market is saying...etc

And after the auction too.

It fails to sell, they've spent money on marketing, they've made plans to move on, perhaps buy another house etc. etc.

And the agents then say "We brought you the market interest... and it didn't sell... what are you going to do now..."

Yes, why not put a price on the house you want to sell?

15
up

What a difference an election makes. Nat's policy of rampant immigration for anyone with a checkbook, and a policy of sell it faster that you can stack it (unless your stacking debt) has all changed. Labour hasn't really done anything yet, other than announce that changes are coming like ring fencing losses, banning overseas speculators, and that it is going to try and intensively redevelop the unitec site. The main people complaining about the Unitec announcement are the landlords.

I say good on them for trying to do something vs continuing Nationals strategy that, intentionally or not, was destroying the sovereign right to live, work and be able to afford a house in NZ. Last I looked protecting the rights of domestic taxpayers is actually the Governments job.

Hear,hear...as you say,for all that is said about bricks & mortar,not making any more land etc...much of the market is driven by sentiment & emotion...any asset is only worth what someone is willing to pay.
So we have it,that even talking about change is having an effect...maybe this govt is even smarter than they seem...haven't spent a cent and they have achieved more in halting the run away train than the last lot lol...

Well said. As surely as sentiment drove it up, sentiment can drag it down.

They need to keep their promise of reducing immigration.

Hopefully yes...maybe that is being subtly slowed by talking things down as well...they are turning of the low budget education schemes which should discourage many from the subcontinent...I am hoping as with housing,it will be something we suddenly notice in a couple of years and go "..when did those house prices come down...when did people stop coming in droves..."...we don't want to scare the horses...

well said average man!

Increasing numbers of sold properties with strange phenomena "PRICE WITHHELD".Hmm! Wonder why??

Some have price sold disclosed and which I presume are good.So good endorsement of the agent.

But, majority seem extremely "shy" to disclose the prices achieved. Perhaps not a good endorsement of the agent's abilities, having most likely "bought the listing" by pitching sales talk at elevated price levels & raised Vendor's expectations .Only to shatter it when the market reality sets in

Where are you seeing these price withheld and price disclosed messages?

Plus,no one wants comments at the BBQ or dinner party along the lines of " I thought you would have got more for that..."

Look at the agents' profiles under SOLD

Is that online? Sorry for being thick, but I am still not sure where to find this.

I think it's on Trademe.

For example under sold:
https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/profile/david-simons

Yeah, I look at this info via trademe too. Huge number of "price withheld" showing up over the last few months. Look at the number on this agents history;
https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/profile/nicki-cruickshank

I don’t see the connection to any market movement. If the prices were withheld from official records that would be odd, but they don’t appear to be with the ones I checked on Homes.co.nz

Just get into any agency's branch office's website.Simply click on an agent's profile for his/her SOLD properties. And you can feast your eyes on the long list of "Price Withheld" properties. Having claimed to be able to secure top-notch prices, it certainly does not look too good for the agent's credibility to publish that actual prices realised were in opposite direction.

Why don’t you take Ginger ninjas link, compare to Homes.co.nz for the prices they sold for and then come back with a claim you can substantiate?

113 Messines Road. Sold late 2015 for $789,000. Sold December 2017 for $975,000. 23% gain in 2 years. What a pitiful result, no wonder they withheld the price received.

This does seem to be a bizarre conspiracy theory.....
The "prices withheld" go back for years yet Property Insights reveals all.

Wonder where all those big spenders have gone? Any chance they'll return? Nope!
BBC article: China's anti-corruption campaign expands with new agency
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-43453769

Comparability is absent from your contributors comments. Comparing areas on auction is particularly invidious. In terms of listings: RE NZ was 10,770 at low in August. Yesterday it was 13600. So, up 30%. Sales up 2% on latest year on year comparison. SO, pretty clear what that implies.