Buyers are likely to have the upper hand in Auckland and Canterbury this winter but vendors will be happy in Dunedin

I feel like that is a chicken and egg example. Prices are too low so sellers aren't selling, but once they sell and price drops so buyers will stop buying. Which they can't do because sellers are selling, but if they did buyers would stop buying.....

I like it.

Bit of a confusing statement there ex socialist. Taken off the market but available for sale. ??? Seems to me that if it's true they are taken off the market because of low values they are not available for sale.
Either way it indicates things are heading down.

looks like some are indoctrinated that their investment will keep rising in value no matter what

Smart investors will get out now or would have already bailed.

The rest will be subject to a trigger event. The world economies are sitting on a knife edge right now and the implosion is imminent!!!!

When the houses come out of hibernation, they will be even more deteriorated

Even longer for our friends TTP, Ecobird, Yvil & the Zacharies

Let's say you have a first home budget of $500,000. You want to have a good job and give your family a good life.

You could buy weatherboards in suburban Hamilton

https://www.realestate.co.nz/3295827

Or or you could buy brick in the outer suburbs of Brisbane

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-runcorn-128380046

Objectively, what's the better choice?

Yes, but if enough people gamble the risk becomes negligible.

If a rise in rates destroys everyone, then who is dumb enough to raise them.

RBNZ says there is even chance of rate rise as rate fall. Coupled with no change in interest rates the most likely outcome will be that they will not increase. Any possibility of an increase is the medium to long-term horizon, who would have thought. Nevertheless, I am always ready if things change unfavourably

so we can expect prices to rise all winter???

what a crack up!

Of course not - Aucklands housing market, much like Chinas economy - is speshul and will never falter.

Within the Auckland statistic there is some wide variances.

In some suburbs it is definitely a buyers market.

You might not know it but within some suburbs in Auckland, in late May when I last looked (based on my own calculations):

Albany has over 140 weeks
Mission Bay has about 130 weeks
Takapuna has over 70 weeks
Otahuhu has over 70 weeks
Flat Bush as over 60 weeks
Auckland Central over 55 weeks
Epsom has over 50 weeks
Papakura has over 50 weeks

And this is even before a recession or rise in interest rates when more households come under financial stress ...

Yet in Auckland, we still have an net inward immigration, and all those other demand factors for housing commonly cited by property market commentators leading them to to say there is a shortage of supply of housing in Auckland ...

The issue in Auckland is that there is a shortage of affordable housing. If Auckland housing was more affordable, these inventory levels would likely be lower, especially in lower income suburbs.

Financial commentators have for the last 25 years said that property prices won't increase in a low inflation environment...how wrong they were

Yes – cold and damp housing – something of a NZ specialty.
I imagine most countries have what might be considered substandard housing for one reason or another.
However, I think where NZ really shines is the ridiculously overpriced nature of such shameful, second-rate hovels.

Sad, but actually true (other than the bit about having just bought and happy to have done so)

You are right about rents and also bank investments. Congrats on your achievement stealth

Yay! Congrats Stealth :-)

Some cherry pick the high sale points, some cherry pick the low sale points. Both highlighted ends of the spectrum are still... cherry picking.

Hi DGZ,

Re Auckland's top suburbs, clearly people are buying-in while the prices are low.

Have a good long-weekend, my friend!

TTP

“35 Maui Grove, Remuera DGZ - Sold 30th May 2018.
After 98 bids the hammer finally came down at $4,418,000."

Fantastic price – and a really positive result, something we should all be thrilled about, but….

..if only it had been $14,418,000 – now that would have been an absolutely tremendous result, out of the ball park stuff – real Booyah money – not this Mickey Duck stuff that’s got you all fluffy.

However, for most - these numbers are somewhat meaningless.

Yes, it is pretty reasonable of Australia to do what it does. Globalism has mean't that doing favours because you are "family" has fallen by the wayside. There is essentially no such thing as a nation anymore in the sense, for example, that the Cherokee saw themselves as a nation. Australia and NZ were tied together by the bonds of a brotherhood and shared history and a common religion but it is rapidly becoming no more.

This is the price of the great quest to eliminate privilege by birth. A shame really ....but you have to move on.

The answer is SOME kiwis get medi-care in Australia and many kiwis who do not get medicare have to pay medical bills out of their own pocket. The discriminatory rules also apply to university fees even though Aussies come to nz and claim the same rights as nzers.

Dear stuart,

your views and predictions seem to be unique at a time when treasury, RBNZ, and most banks and economists forecast everyday that property prices will be rising at a rate of 2-3% in general and maybe more in Auckland.

You refer to few anecdotal over CV sales when there are far too many of these in the reasonable-quality house sales, almost 100% in the high quality houses, and very few in the trash and rubbish properties -- so better be careful about generalising. CV is a perception and a result of an algorithms which assumes a comparative value with similar properties in the area regardless of actual condition, status, and potential of an individual property.

The property market is stable now and the fact that prices did not drop dramatically or crashed and that average and median prices have been appreciating ( whatever the rate of rise was to be but all have been positive ) ..and the fact that we haven't had a lower low since July 2017, all contradict what you are saying.

The median and average price graphs make a good reading for those who know how to marry price movement with market fundamentals.

Why don't you help her out Brock? Become a father figure and provider. Why should I or anyone else bring up your family members, raise the children of an absent father?
I've already spent years and years, working 50 hour or more weeks, bringing up my own kids.

Easier said than done TM2 especially when you're not in that position, myself included.

Thank you for being another perfect caricature of exactly the kind of person I'm talking about.

The problem isn't the roving packs of rent seeking property hyenas creating and exploiting a terrible situation to enrich themselves while laughing about it... oh no... its that these people are lazy bludgers seeking handouts! #Taxinda #CoL #TwoTicksBlue #HurrDurr.

"The Boy" ought to wipe the side of his head there is brown stuff dribbling out of his ears again.

Judging by your lack of character I doubt you've really travelled very far. Having been to 60 or 70 odd countries on six continents myself I've seen very few places with as an arrogant and nasty mindset towards the poor as I see right here. It's something you see much less of in the more cohesive and less "multicultural" societies.

Living in New Zealand really ain't all that. It's a low wage, extremely high cost, dull, parochial little island with very average weather in the middle of nowhere.

Living space, the relaxed lifestyle and the outdoor environment used to make up for that but now that is being wrecked by mass immigration, mass dairy and mass tourism.

There are plenty of places as good or better to live these days.

Good post Zachary. There are some stereotypes in there but it pretty much sums up my thoughts. Life can be unfair, but producing a stable family life where resources are gathered and redistributed according to need is my Elysium. Some cultures still hold to that, others not so much.

You would struggle to find any countries around the world so hell bent on destroying their national identity though mass immigration as New Zealand.

It wouldn't fly in almost any European, Asian or African country, nor in the Americas.

The closest I can think of is Fiji and look how that turned out.