Buyers are likely to have the upper hand in Auckland and Canterbury this winter but vendors will be happy in Dunedin

Buyers are likely to have the upper hand in Auckland and Canterbury this winter but vendors will be happy in Dunedin

Buyers are likely to be happy in most main centres as the property market hunkers down for winter, with plenty of homes on the market for them to choose from.

Property website Realestate.co.nz had 24,477 residential properties throughout the country available for sale at the end of May, up very slightly from 24,229 that were for sale at the end of May last year, but up 5% compared to May 2016.

Around the main centres the number of homes available for sale on the website is up compared to May last year in Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, and Canterbury.

In Auckland and Canterbury the number of of homes available for sale on Realestate.co.nz at the end of May was the highest it has been for the month of May since 2012, making it likely buyers in those regions will be especially spoiled for choice.

In Wellington the market appears flat, with 1052 homes available for sale at the end of May compared to 1069 in May last year, while in Otago the market looks extremely tight, with just 549 homes available for sale at the end of May, compared to 613 in May last year.

That is the lowest number of homes available for sale in Dunedin in the month of May since Realesate.co.nz's records began in 2007.

The tightness of the Otago market is also reflected in the very low number of new listings.

In May, just 262 Otago properties were newly listed with Realestate.co.nz, which was also the lowest for the month of May since the website's records began in 2007.

That suggests buyers in Otago may struggle to find a property that suits their needs and there is likely to be continuing upward pressure on prices in the region.

In the other main centres new listings were mostly steady in May and have been remarkably so for the last 3-4 years.

Overall, the Realestate.co.nz figures suggest it's likely to be a buyer's market in Auckland and Canterbury this winter, things will be steady as she goes in most other main centres but in Otago it will be vendors that are likely to have the whip hand.

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158 Comments

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The Auckland listings doesn't reflect the number of properties taken off the market because of the low market values. I suspect the total stock available for sale is significantly higher than the listings. However, prices have been resistant to decline. However, when they start to drop it is likely to result in even more caution from buyers.

I feel like that is a chicken and egg example. Prices are too low so sellers aren't selling, but once they sell and price drops so buyers will stop buying. Which they can't do because sellers are selling, but if they did buyers would stop buying.....

I like it.

?!? I think you're a bit confused

... my take on it is that if house prices don't fall in the future , as many predict they are going to do , then you shouldn't feel pressured into selling now ....

Unless the opposite happens , and they do fall .... in which case sell now ... and as fast as you possibly can ...

13
up

As a potential FHB, Auckland properties would have to drop by about 50% for me to ever consider it. At which point we'd be in an economic crisis and I wouldn't be able to find a job there anyway. It's an incredibly overrated city.

If it can continue to be attractive long term money launderers and speculative investors, house prices will stay stable.

What happened to Ban on Non resident buyer Bill. Was it not suppose to be presented in the parliment on 30th or 31st may by first comittee for second reading.

Delaying to suit whom.

You nailed buddy. That's the fact, prices can't drop by that much as most jobs would disappear and affordability will get ffd anyway. Where is the foreign buyer ban??? I've stopped holding my breath on that one.

Hi saving_for_auss...

You'll be right......

Some of the contributors to this blog reckon Auckland house prices will drop between 70% and 90%. (Not a mere 50% drop.)

Thus, you should get your trip to Aussie and a flash new car as well.

Of course, there's a chance these contributors will be proven wrong??

TTP

Hello TPT,

I have no real ill-will towards people who invest in property. If you have the capital and manage your risks right it's probably a good idea. But I come from the wrong side of the tracks. There's no trust fund, no bank of mum and dad, there's no grandparent inheritance, there's just me, and I'm not going to be duped into being a New Zealand FHB victim.

" I am a looser - everyone else must be a money launderer . At least that thought made me feel better".

Oh no, I hope one day to be wealthy enough to launder money. But I'm not never going to get on the money laundering ladder if I try and compete in a market already saturated with money launderers from all corners of the globe, now am I?

A key factor of laundering is that some people wash their hands of it after using it as a means to an end.

That we cannot compete here in NZ is that we are electronically constrained, and not in power to vote for an amendment to issues that make our debt to others money wise and otherwise, grow daily.

That growing debt inflates their ego, may cause me to amend and alter my ego and call it quits.

One cannot fix an industry that is building on leverage and most appropriately here on shaky ground.

A roof needs to be put over what is now an outward flow, but expected to flow backwards and explode into a fantastic growth with your contributions to a single first time Kiwi Build, that large deposits of your net worth, net a new tax structure.

Skimming and scamming is a World Wide phenomenon, now we are ahead of the game.

Poor people and poor quality management of over priced resources and building towards the greatest over regulated and over priced material gains in particular Awkland, will benefit no one in the end, when it lands with a bang.

To compete with others one has to have a hand in ones pocket and unfortunately that is a politicians delight.,

You obviously think that corruption is based on overseas input. You are far from the truth and Saving-for-Auss will not save you as you cannot beat a system based on leveraged credit, skimming and scamming and importing Aussie based Bwankers along with our own set of poor imports and land bankers, expecting a huge answer to the plot that prevails.

I could explain further, but Google reduced houses ....in any other country but ours....it may be a dream come true.....but not Aussie...way too over priced for a normal man Saving.

Wt.....???

Bit of a confusing statement there ex socialist. Taken off the market but available for sale. ??? Seems to me that if it's true they are taken off the market because of low values they are not available for sale.
Either way it indicates things are heading down.

Glad it's not just me

Yes it is poor wording - perhaps 'available for sale but not listed'. I think there are a lot of vendors who have stopped listing because they have a misguided belief that prices will rise. The key aspect is that with currently 21 weeks stock available - even if buying activity picked up the available stock may not decline as hopeful vendors listed properties.

looks like some are indoctrinated that their investment will keep rising in value no matter what

Smart investors will get out now or would have already bailed.

The rest will be subject to a trigger event. The world economies are sitting on a knife edge right now and the implosion is imminent!!!!

This Winter will be Long.......Few years.

When the houses come out of hibernation, they will be even more deteriorated

Owners (investors and homeowners), without over-capitalising your property, just make your properties the best they can be. Fresh coat of gloss paint makes a huge difference and can look brand new. Decking too is cheap yet highly effective improvement. There's no need to sit on hands

Easy to put down in words, in reality the quality of our houses are pathetic

He's right, a coat of paint (over the mould) and a few superfluous improvements can easily lure the weak of mind into paying a bit more.

Your comment shows you know nothing and you will always be broke brock

Brock could be a multi millionaire running a scalable global business, or a fund manager overseeing billions.

Christ, that's uncanny. I do happen to run a small scalable global business and some would say I'm quite comfortable.

Unlike Durrall here however, I abhor rent-seeking behaviour and don't feel the need to exploit my fellow kiwis to get ahead.

Well swapacrate really is Peter Thiel and therefore knows everything about all of us through Palantir.

Even longer for our friends TTP, Ecobird, Yvil & the Zacharies

Thanks thegic,

We appreciate your friendship. (But please don't forget the honourable DGZ.)

TTP

Well in contrast to realestate.co.nz Waikato - Hamilton on trademe certionaly does not compare with this time last year.

Today listings at 749. On 22/5/17 we had 652 on the 21/6/17 we had 645.

Let's say you have a first home budget of $500,000. You want to have a good job and give your family a good life.

You could buy weatherboards in suburban Hamilton

https://www.realestate.co.nz/3295827

Or or you could buy brick in the outer suburbs of Brisbane

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-runcorn-128380046

Objectively, what's the better choice?

You forgot to apply the discount rate of having to deal with ‘Stralians... plus the risk factor of becoming deceased due to a poisonous animal, plus Mick Dundee movies. I could go on.

Hamilton has a higher concentration of poisonous animals, they just happen to be homo sapiens.

What are Brisbane salaries and career opportunities like vs Hamilton? Cost of food? Petrol?

Plus there’s dingos eating people’s offspring, underarm cricket deliveries, sketchy sand paper ball issues, crocodiles, generational convict mentality, bundaberg rum fueled bar fights, sports they invented and only play amongst themselves etc. I could go on.

What ever makes you feel better about being stuck in NZ mate.

But your assumption is wrong for I am not even in NZ. Well traveled yes and in a good position to make a call such as this one. But you do you brother. All the best.

Brisbane. Hamilton may be good on paper, but it isn't a nice place to raise a family. Cultural wasteland. Your kids will be bullied in school and possibly turn to meth. Everyone that I know who lives or has previously lived in Hamilton moved there because they were forced into it for work or affordability reasons, which isn't a good starting point for a happy life in a new city. Tauranga is a much better alternative than both Hamilton and Brisbane.

Or or you could buy brick in the outer suburbs of Brisbane

Things are pretty rocky in Brissie and SEQ.

Land prices in Brisbane have fallen by roughly a quarter in just a year, the biggest decline seen in South East Queensland (SEQ) council regions.

https://www.yourmortgage.com.au/mortgage-news/brisbane-land-prices-recor...

you do realise there are other ways to make money in life that aren't short term real estate investment, right?

Seems to me that kiwis in Australia are treated like maggots and not anzacs. Unless you get Australia citizenship you will be paying toward their medi-care yet not be able to access it when it comes time. Your kids will have to pay university fees like foreigners

Why wouldn't you get Aussie citizenship? They've just introduced a new path to residency for Kiwis which will cover the vast majority of long term residents. As for myself, I easily score enough points to apply for PR through their skills shortage scheme.

Then how come so many are coming back to nz so their kids can go uni, and that was before the first year free fees. And why are there complaints about kiwis getting screwed with no medi-care cover even though they pay for it through their taxes?

Once again, for those at the back...

Because they're not Australian permanent residents or citizens. That's why they have issues. Hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders in Australia don't have these issues - because they're eligible to go on the path to citizenship, and have done so.

Besides, Australia could reduce all resident New Zealand citizens to chattel slavery and it would still be better than paying half a million for a weatherboard shitbox in hamilton.

I'm sure there are a lot of problem gamblers out there hoping the long winter on interest rates lasts.

Once they rise it's all over red rover.

Yes, but if enough people gamble the risk becomes negligible.

If a rise in rates destroys everyone, then who is dumb enough to raise them.

Take your point – however – a gentle rise in rates doesn’t and won’t “destroy” everyone.
There are net savers and those with free equity – along with those that have been prudent – in tandem with perhaps not enough “dumb gamblers” for such gamblers to secure an advantage.
Don’t plan on an ultra-loose or favourably low interest rate environment forever.

The thing to remember is that its not just the Homeowners who are in debt up to their eyeballs. Show me a company that isn't as well.

Any increase will wipe out everything.

Maybe they could inch it up 0.1% a year, but even that would be touch and go.

That's a fallacy and the way it works is last in first destroyed as the pyramid unravels.

RBNZ says there is even chance of rate rise as rate fall. Coupled with no change in interest rates the most likely outcome will be that they will not increase. Any possibility of an increase is the medium to long-term horizon, who would have thought. Nevertheless, I am always ready if things change unfavourably

lol, we are back to Greg's amusing titles ... bbbrrrr it's Cold !
I see that DGM are Warming up for this fizzy news ..

Historically, prices rise slowly during winter months until October ... so watch carefully ...and watch for that July 18 market bottom.

so we can expect prices to rise all winter???

what a crack up!

Watch, even you could learn something new, be patient!

you are welcome ... lol

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/home-prices-post-first-annua...

Sydney down 15% by 2020.

This could never happen to Auckland right?

Of course not - Aucklands housing market, much like Chinas economy - is speshul and will never falter.

Wellington has 7 weeks of inventory compared to the West Coast’s 80 weeks... tough market for the coasters....

Within the Auckland statistic there is some wide variances.

In some suburbs it is definitely a buyers market.

You might not know it but within some suburbs in Auckland, in late May when I last looked (based on my own calculations):

Albany has over 140 weeks
Mission Bay has about 130 weeks
Takapuna has over 70 weeks
Otahuhu has over 70 weeks
Flat Bush as over 60 weeks
Auckland Central over 55 weeks
Epsom has over 50 weeks
Papakura has over 50 weeks

And this is even before a recession or rise in interest rates when more households come under financial stress ...

Yet in Auckland, we still have an net inward immigration, and all those other demand factors for housing commonly cited by property market commentators leading them to to say there is a shortage of supply of housing in Auckland ...

The issue in Auckland is that there is a shortage of affordable housing. If Auckland housing was more affordable, these inventory levels would likely be lower, especially in lower income suburbs.

Add to this the remoteness of any prospect of inflation coming to the rescue as it did for some in the past.

Financial commentators have for the last 25 years said that property prices won't increase in a low inflation environment...how wrong they were

What on earth are you on about Houseworks? Where do you pull this nonsense from? The effect of globalisation, the internet and streamlined production would have been unfathomable 25 years ago. The current global financial system was not imagined then, no one knew how it would play out.

And even if they had, asset inflation has been alive and well in the low interest rate environment, as it has at every other time in history... (we have records of interest rates in the Roman era... low interest rates = asset inflation then too. It's predictable AF).

We don't know how the next stage of the cycle will play out so stop trying to sound like you do.

"And even if they had"

You just admitted you haven't got a clue what happened in early 90s despite claiming to have a wide knowledge of history hahaha

Or perhaps you simply don't have a good grasp of the english language?

Here are a few papers on ancient economies, including the Roman Empire, in case you would like to educate yourself rather than just vomiting juvenile ill-informed comments all over the internet because you are scared shitless that interest rates might go up and it is rendering your psyche in twain.

I came across the interest rate/asset history first in a book called The Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan and read around the topic. I'm quietly confident I have a better knowledge of both history and perhaps a few other topics than you Houseworks, but then knowledge has never stopped an angry keyboard warrior such as yourself.

https://economics.mit.edu/files/1238

http://michael-hudson.com/2000/03/how-interest-rates-were-set-2500-bc-10...

And you still don't know what happened at home in nz in early 90's hahaha

Ultimately interest rates crumbled and the world was flooded with cheap and easy money– then later to spur matters on mass migration went through the roof.
In the absence of both of those – it may well have been a different story – now remove both of those going forward – again, it may be a different story.
I can’t foretell the future – to pretend to be that clever or smug would I think be foolish.

Houseworks, i'm sorry about your difficulty comprehending my point. Let me dumb it down for you.

In the 90s, nowhere in the world could anyone have predicted the changes to inflation brought about by the factors I mention above. So anything, anyone thought about the relationship between inflation and house prices is irrelevant. It's irrelevant in NZ as much as it is anywhere else. House prices are not fully included in inflation calculations anyway, if they were, the picture would look very different.

My point is that your comment was utterly meaningless and irrelevant. Just more of what you have been doing everywhere in these comments lately, which is demonstrating your desperation to believe that interest rates will remain low. It's pretty obvious why you are so scared of higher rates and consequently you have no objectivity in your thinking. I know uncertainty is scary, but just try and put your big boy pants on, if you can.

There is a good chance that global tightening will commence, cause a major recession, which will immediately see interest rates reduced again. Doesn't mean that they won't be raised for a time and cause issues. There is also a chance that they will raise ever so slightly and then stay put for years or go even lower. Or that they will go up much faster than predicted because of some system shock that causes inflation (oil for instance). We are in uncharted territory, no one can truly know how it will play out and trying to sound so confident about the future just sounds very foolish and desperate.

Gingerninja it must be getting awfully painful sitting on the fence, the trouble with that approach is fear stops you from making decisions. Are my positive message posts getting to you and making you worry that the doom outcome will not actually materialise? We are neither desperate nor scared, we made decisions about our property needs and property investments and we meet other people who are doing similar and doing well in life and are happy. I only hope for you that you successfully do the same.

Houseworks, I for one outed your "positive" message posts a lies. Your antics as a Landlord, you've self confessed are illegal. It's understandable that as a "Johnny cm Lately" you will preach to draw as many as possible into your precious ponzi. This behavior is common at the beginning of the downward leg.

Haha you are still smarting about me outing you as an auckland property owner and you haven't got over the fallout others dealt you for being duplicitous.

Btw Retired-Poppy whether I am Johnny come lately or early it is still far far better than Johnny who wishes he came early but missed out entirely as you have

Houseworks, jeepers! You only entered the Hamilton market nine months ago and I'm supposed to be envious of your gold star decision to allow some random Aucklander a profitable exit? You're kidding me - right?

Haha you can't understand what you read, no wonder you have squandered your opportunities

ha-ha-ha-ha :) uh-hmmm (struggling to keep a straight face) you weren't joking. So much laughter from just one commentator! Anyway, for all its no longer worth, all the best with your prized investment......

P/S, why are you hearing crickets in your unit? It's not even February........you might need to call an exterminator.

Isn't it ironical that you despise residential investors and attempt to squash us at every opportunity. But the banks you give your hard graft to are busy funding us and giving us your money to capitalise on...priceless

Is it something I said? Seriously dude, wake up to today's risks and stop trying to shoot the messenger. It's as foolish as trying to eliminate Global risk just to advance your own financial agenda. For the record, being with Rabodirect does not expose me to the financial risks of residential speculators such as yourself. That's the principle reason why I deposited funds with them.

Enjoy the rest of your long weekend :)

It's what you always say and your myopic view of the world. Seriously, you have a million or two on deposit so you don't need to be soooo conservative and boring with your investment. Live a little, have some fun

.... chirp chirp .... crickets are sounding

Houseworks, your comments on here are deteriorating by the day. And I doubt I am alone in detecting your increasing air of desperation. Not that I am deriding your fear, if I had a mountain of debt in NZ residential property right now, I would be nervous about the possibility of interest hikes too. The NZ property investors I know, are equally nervous about interest rates, although they are not in denial of the risks as you seem to be, they are taking sensible steps to reduce their exposure. Better safe than sorry eh?

Luckily, I have no debts currently so am free from this particular terror.

As for the "doom outcome". I have never ever stated any such thing, I know some have, but that is not my position. My opinion is, the markets have peaked, there is high debt, this doesn't necessarily mean doom, but it does make doom more likely (should a serious economic shock occur)....and I have moved my investments accordingly. I am not a high risk investor. Okay, I have maybe $20k in super high risk investments but that is a small fraction of the investments overall. I imagine you have all your eggs in one basket (property) and can't see beyond your own hyperbole (which you also associate with success).

Fellow commentators on here can vouch for the fact that I have been looking to buy a home in Wellington for ages (I just haven't found one that I like yet). I don't believe Wellington to be overpriced, the market has gone flat and if the right house comes along, I will buy it. I refuse to engage in the tender process and I don't like the decor of a lot of homes, so want the right house that I can strip out and spend a good chunk of cash renovating. I would have built a house if there were any plots in Wellington not hanging off a hill!! I think it's possible Auckland might have some sort of correction at some point, especially if there is an economic shock
but who in their right mind doesn't see that risk with debt as high as it is? That's hardly a doom position. Just basic economics.

I have also commented on here, that my next big investment will be a commercial premises in Wellington. And that will involve a mortgage. Probably before I turn 40. But i'm unsuccessful right?

Well just so you know I'm dont come here to this blog out of fear and deperation and I am not vainly trying to persuade others to board a sinking ship. We have more than enough equity and income as well as cash reserves. In my experience property does not crash suddenly overnight so it is not as risky as sharemarkets. I will always admit there is a risk in any property or property investment, but we weigh that up. That is also an individual thing as some properties are riskier than others (cladding risk, asbestos risk, coastal inundation risk etc) and some have hidden potential that other buyers don't see. Imagine if you were offered a wellington commercial property that you knew had real value and potential but that other buyers couldn't see past minor issues. We have had that happen to us in our location and that property value has doubled in the last 12 months when as we all know property values have supposedly been going down and not up. And years ago when we bought our first home we waited till the end of that recession when prices started to move, thinking that was the best timing. In hindsight the best time was a couple of years earlier when vendors were more negotiable and there was less competition.
When I said I hope that you successfully do the same I was referring to successful property buying, I realise that you have things going for you and you are already successful in other ways and I certainly wish you well

I've just bought and happy I have done so. Rents will keep going up in cold and damp housing. Interest rates will remain low so a good time to buy....money in the bank is pointless shares or property the only way to go.

Yes – cold and damp housing – something of a NZ specialty.
I imagine most countries have what might be considered substandard housing for one reason or another.
However, I think where NZ really shines is the ridiculously overpriced nature of such shameful, second-rate hovels.

Sad, but actually true (other than the bit about having just bought and happy to have done so)

You are right about rents and also bank investments. Congrats on your achievement stealth

Yay! Congrats Stealth :-)

35 Maui Grove, Remuera DGZ - Sold 30th May 2018.
After 98 bids the hammer finally came down at $4,418,000.
2017 CV is $3,900,000 and this represents 13.3% over the CV.
https://www.bayleys.co.nz/1751505
How about that as an entrée for your winter roast? Booyah!

Some cherry pick the high sale points, some cherry pick the low sale points. Both highlighted ends of the spectrum are still... cherry picking.

I find the info from dgz very interesting, it shows the market in the top central east suburbs is alive and active. Thanks DGZ

Which is fine and dandy but rather pointless. Even in an affordable market these prices will mean nothing as most people will not be buying these houses. Might as well quote prices that people are buying houses for when they spend 10 million or 20 million, means nothing.

Hi DGZ,

Re Auckland's top suburbs, clearly people are buying-in while the prices are low.

Have a good long-weekend, my friend!

TTP

Clearly they are – this is hardly a revelation.

If we open our market to the worlds wealthy elite then isn’t this an obvious by-product.

“Price” in the normal sense means little to this group of buyers.

“35 Maui Grove, Remuera DGZ - Sold 30th May 2018.
After 98 bids the hammer finally came down at $4,418,000."

Fantastic price – and a really positive result, something we should all be thrilled about, but….

..if only it had been $14,418,000 – now that would have been an absolutely tremendous result, out of the ball park stuff – real Booyah money – not this Mickey Duck stuff that’s got you all fluffy.

However, for most - these numbers are somewhat meaningless.

You beat me to it.

A mere seven minutes - your call next time.

I think if the top end is hot it is a sign of something, an endorsement of the city by the global rich.

It is most definitely a sign of something. I would hazard a guess and say that it's dirty money being laundered.

We are not treated like "maggots" in Aus at all. We just don't get all the social benefits and can you blame them? Hundreds of thousands of non Kiwi 's use NZ as a means to get into Aussie as NZ standards are far lower, in fact NZ will accept just about anyone. You can get in on a skilled visa being a cook or a hairdresser for godness sake. Also Kiwis get medicare in Aussie. You can also get citizenship now after residing in Aus 5 years and earning over the income threshold, which isn't hard. Life is far far better in Australia even with the downturn over the last few years.

Yes, it is pretty reasonable of Australia to do what it does. Globalism has mean't that doing favours because you are "family" has fallen by the wayside. There is essentially no such thing as a nation anymore in the sense, for example, that the Cherokee saw themselves as a nation. Australia and NZ were tied together by the bonds of a brotherhood and shared history and a common religion but it is rapidly becoming no more.

This is the price of the great quest to eliminate privilege by birth. A shame really ....but you have to move on.

The answer is SOME kiwis get medi-care in Australia and many kiwis who do not get medicare have to pay medical bills out of their own pocket. The discriminatory rules also apply to university fees even though Aussies come to nz and claim the same rights as nzers.

Fail to understand why few do not read the marke correctly or interpret it to suit what they want to hear.
Whom are they bluffing or trying to prove that houses are going much above CV (True few are or may be going). When they come up with such argument that house market has not changed, it is themselves that they are basically trying to convince and not others.

Property market started to move upward from appox 2011 and it took a jump after national government was elected 3rd and final time (National too knew that will be the last time so went all out to defend and protect speculators and foreign buyer for vested interest) in 2014 and it paused briefely at end of 2015 but again took off in early 2016 as NZ was and is a safe heaven for money laundering - Park unacconted money from home country into NZ as a result even if one has to bid and pay 20% or 30% extra is a good deal for them as that money 100% is no good to them in their home country and in NZ where no questions are asked pay premium now and over a period of time will get it back as the the government too was very supportive infact was promoting it as Tax Free country with no capital gain (No wonder national manipulated the defination of Non resident buyer, If national who claim to be experts in business and finace were sincere, would not have manipulated and lied as people only lie and manipulate when they too know that what they ade doing is not what people want).

Since end of last year market has paused and infact has slowed as a result anyone who bought from 2015 onward is finding it hard to sell without a loss (again will some exception). This does indicate that market has fallen and the market sentiment at the moment is down.

Price resistance is first step where properties are not going but vendors are still able to hold on to the price and may or may not sell now with a discount but if things continue the way market is now price will tumble that is for sure by how much can be debated.

Even now one off properties going on premium is supported by foreign buyer and can check the same with any reliable real eastate agent and properties in Auckland between 600000 to 900000 are supported by FHB who had missed the party and not realizing that having missed the bus it is better now to wait and watch and not rush (house price may or may no go down much but one thing is for sure that it is not going up for next few years, so why rush). Patience will really help entering property market now. Though over a very long period will not matter but if wait and buy when the market stabilize the period for gain will be short.

Dear stuart,

your views and predictions seem to be unique at a time when treasury, RBNZ, and most banks and economists forecast everyday that property prices will be rising at a rate of 2-3% in general and maybe more in Auckland.

You refer to few anecdotal over CV sales when there are far too many of these in the reasonable-quality house sales, almost 100% in the high quality houses, and very few in the trash and rubbish properties -- so better be careful about generalising. CV is a perception and a result of an algorithms which assumes a comparative value with similar properties in the area regardless of actual condition, status, and potential of an individual property.

The property market is stable now and the fact that prices did not drop dramatically or crashed and that average and median prices have been appreciating ( whatever the rate of rise was to be but all have been positive ) ..and the fact that we haven't had a lower low since July 2017, all contradict what you are saying.

The median and average price graphs make a good reading for those who know how to marry price movement with market fundamentals.

But but TM2 says ignore economists and do the opposite......

I learned today that a close family member and her two young kids are now living in a garage.

Solo mum. Works full-time. But they now live in a garage to make ends meet. That's the real definition of a long cold winter.

Meanwhile we have people I can only describe as rent-seeking human waste gloating about the prospect of profiting from ever increasing immigration and housing costs on these forums.

New Zealand makes me sick to the core. What a rotten society.

Why don't you help her out Brock? Become a father figure and provider. Why should I or anyone else bring up your family members, raise the children of an absent father?
I've already spent years and years, working 50 hour or more weeks, bringing up my own kids.

So in your fucked up mind they are actually just bludgers looking for handouts from you?

Take it easy brock, don't let them get to you.

They will try their best to belittle others

I'm just asking questions at this stage, looking for some compelling answers. My suggestions don't seem to be welcome. I've got the whole planet to care for after all.

I honestly do believe family should help each other out.

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Here's a suggestion for you.

First, go take a long hard look in the mirror and get over yourself.

Then, spend the rest of the day pondering about whether so many of the people now finding themselves in this situation are really just bludgers looking for handouts or victims of a housing and immigration situation that has been engineered by a particularly nasty and greedy cohort of society who are profiting immensely from the misery of others. We have a fundamentally broken system.

Handouts are not the answer. They don't make lasting change and just go straight into the pockets of the wrong people. The answer is to fix the financialisation of housing and change society for the better.

New Zealand used to be much better than this. What has gone so wrong?

9 years of a rotten government

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No I think it's deeper than that. That government was supported by an awful lot of people. So much of the attitude is "got mine, f*ck you" these days.

Talk about deflect. In the New Zealand of the past Family looked after each other, which is what Zachary asked. You are best placed to know what YOUR family members need and to provide it quickly. We have devolved individual responsibility into collective responsibility. Raging here on your keyboard does nothing.

Where did I say I'm not helping? That's totally beside the point.

The point is the ugly spectacle of the profiteering and greed and gloating while working families can't house themselves anymore.

In New Zealand of the past working people were able to help themselves.

Plenty of the greed and gloating is on display here, so "raging" here will do just fine, thanks.

It's the frustration that has built up in the common man, due to the noxious attitude of the ex government,that has led to arrogant pests within our society

Just trying to get something clear, the "ugly spectacle", the "greed", the "gloating", the "pests", are you referring to some of our esteemed commenters at Interest.co?

Maybe you're not that smart, but others will know better

When I tell Kiwi friends about the residential property situation in Japan the result is almost pornographic. They excitedly sweat and pant as they imagine the vast profits they're going to make speculating and investing in Japanese houses.

"See, I'll snap up a bunch of 'em and then throw some paint around, then flip most them for a massive profit while keeping the crap to rent out to suckers! Yields!"

Then they make confused and disbelieving noises when it's explained that the Japanese will simply go buy other houses at much lower prices and the Kiwi speculator-"investor" is stuck with a bunch of 'em now worth far less than he paid, and only going to devalue even more with each passing year,

At this point the Kiwi howls in outrage, and says "But, but, but, immigration! And interest rates! And interest rates! And immigration! You just don't get it, mate! Ya can't lose with houses! HOUUUUUSSSSSSSES!"

Maybe Kiwis really are "duffrunt un spusshull" after all.

Cool story bro.

And true!

Globalism?

Become a citizen if you want those things paid for

Brock Landers, if you think that other countries don’t have the same situation then you are sadly deluded.
Travel overseas and you will see that NZ is one of the most liveable country’s in the world if not the most!
Many are extremely lucky that we continue t9 give free money away to people who don’t actuslly contribute a helluva lot to the country, but just expect it!
You can swear and curse as much as you like but it won’t make any difference to your close family members situation.
Reality is that for people to get ahead in life they need to take ownership of their situation and do,things to improve it.
There are far too,many with their hands out and expect everyone else to financially assist them.
Yes I know people who have not progressed financially since they were in their twenties but it is thru their own choices and actions or lack of action.

Easier said than done TM2 especially when you're not in that position, myself included.

Thank you for being another perfect caricature of exactly the kind of person I'm talking about.

The problem isn't the roving packs of rent seeking property hyenas creating and exploiting a terrible situation to enrich themselves while laughing about it... oh no... its that these people are lazy bludgers seeking handouts! #Taxinda #CoL #TwoTicksBlue #HurrDurr.

"The Boy" ought to wipe the side of his head there is brown stuff dribbling out of his ears again.

Judging by your lack of character I doubt you've really travelled very far. Having been to 60 or 70 odd countries on six continents myself I've seen very few places with as an arrogant and nasty mindset towards the poor as I see right here. It's something you see much less of in the more cohesive and less "multicultural" societies.

Living in New Zealand really ain't all that. It's a low wage, extremely high cost, dull, parochial little island with very average weather in the middle of nowhere.

Living space, the relaxed lifestyle and the outdoor environment used to make up for that but now that is being wrecked by mass immigration, mass dairy and mass tourism.

There are plenty of places as good or better to live these days.

Brock, 'The Man' (as he weirdly calls himself) displays everything that I despise in this country, including:
- it's self centredness
- It's smug, unwarranted arrogance
- it's unworldly-ness
But more than anything I suspect he just likes winding people up

He is a lousy troll though because he comes across as so mind numbingly stupid nobody takes him seriously. There is an art to winding people up.

.

Hard to disagree with what you say.. but I find it easier to not engage with it. I live in hope it'll get bored with being ignored and toddle off to the bowls club where there is a captive audience.

Fritz, you missed out, telling it the way it is!!!
The reality is that the average Kiwi is sick and tired of people in NZ thinking that they are owed a living.
The fact that many on here continue to moan and groan about everything just because they can, doesn’t mean that everything is wrong about living in NZ.
Yes I am fortunate that I am very financial and now have a privileged lifestyle, but I can tell you that what we now have has come about from hard work for many years and then investing wisely.
I have many mates that haven’t worked as hard as We have and find that they will be relying on Super for their retirement when it happens.
I have also helped many people over the years to improve their financial position, and one thing I am not is “self centred”.
Quite the opposite I like to advise and help people but if people don’t want to damn well listen then I don’t lose any sleep over it!
Everyone has to make choices and live by them!

It's really sad so few people in NZ seem to have the motivation or talent to do anything other than rent-seek.

Imagine if we had lots of smart productive entrepreneurs that grew the pie instead of these greedy dropkicks that hoard the pie and blame everyone else for not having much.

HurrDurr I need to steal their pie for my super.

Brock, if you don’t like NZ and you think there are better places, then I suggest you pack your bags and move somewhere else.

Being critical of one's own country, it's leadership and policies is not a crime. In fact it's central to democracy.
I treasure the fact that we can speak out and not be locked up or killed.
I'm sure Brock is like me, and likes lots of things about NZ.
But it's no paradise, that's for sure. What frustrates me most about NZ is that it could be so much better.

Of course it is your perogative to criticise the Country you live in, and no it is not perfect.
What I will guarantee though that it will not be as easy to live in it after this COL are finished with it!

If you are so concerned about the current government why don't you move to Australia - then you will raise the IQ on both sides of the Tasman.

Bad Robot, that is the funniest thing I have read for awhile, and oh so original!
Wouldn’t be worth my while Robot, as if We lived in Oz, we would be up for Capital GainsTax on any property we sold in the future.
Why should we pay the Oz government tax on property owned in NZ?
Makes far better sense or cents to just holiday there frequently!

Because you would be tax resident in Australia and therefore are using the public utilities and services and therefore should pay your fair share?

You truely are one of the most greedy and arrogant personalities I've come across.

Brock, I reiterate why should we pay CGT on property we own in NZ when our rental income is NZD?
we would be more than paying our share of tax by living in OZ and paying for things in AUD!
Not greedy at all, successful in business and confident in my abilities!
This is what NZ needs, not moaning, jealous and ignorant people who think that they should be given everything without doing anything for it, Brock.

Come on man. Nobody can be this dumb.

You pay tax where you are tax resident on your income both domestic and foreign. Thats standard tax law the world over. That's the price you pay for the standard of the government utilities and services where you live.

You don't get to say something is overseas therefore exempt. In Australia and many other countries your fair share includes paying tax on capital income.

Undoubtedly that tax loophole will be closed here soon too due to the distortions its creating.

It also sounds like you don't even grasp the difference between rental income and capital gains.

Can you even tie your own shoes?

While I don't claim originality , you sure do complain a lot. Things can't be that bad as you don't seem to want to leave - to quote someone else you "doth protest too much, methinks".

My comment is about your complaining - nothing to do with your business affairs.

That's not true it will lower it in Australia.

Indeed. Just please don't turn around and moan about a shortage of highly skilled workers in the next breath.

Brock, you have a point that in nz we are a compassionate society and that as individuals we should not take others for granted. Unfortunately you come across as contemptuous instead of empathetic and therefore just hypocritical.

Thanks Durrall. Unfortunately compassion and egalitarianism seem to be being replaced with greed and class warfare.

It's possible to have empathy for the victims and contempt for the victimisers at the same time. Not that I really care about virtue signalling.

That's not my name brock. You have been called Broke Landers which seems extremely appropriate but the irony is probably lost on you

Since I'm not broke I don't really get it.

Brock Landers is a character from a movie.

Does Durrall know you are soiling his brand and trademark?

We are all created equal and all start out the same but some have better opportunities and more priviledge than others, through our parents and that isn't anyone's fault. Putting that aside, rewards (financial or other) also come through our own efforts and hard work. So in my opinion we can still be the best and fulfill our driving desires if we really want to. You arent a young man but being bitter and giving won't help.

Below all the bluster you are a true gent and nice person I am sure.

Houseworks, it's hard to teach some sheeple new tricks. They ignore warnings about what comes next! Bah, bahhhh. Food for thought?

Wilfully missing the point rp but haha up to you. Property is a career for me not a passing phase, my wife and I have worked hard and plugged away and our family have been rewarded for our efforts. It is probably easier now for us than before and we can make our choices based on what we want and not being corralled to do something or not. I am excited by the future and what I hope to do in future but there are some older members here from the anti property brigade that aren't so comfortable and happy because of poor decisions and lost opportunities.

....yup another one fresh from a property seminar. I am excited by the future too, albeit with a more balanced earthbound perspective. The difference between you and us older so called "anti property brigade" is that we are already financially sorted. You read as a young, naive and financially distorted individual whos just impatient to get rich with minimal effort.

By not lodging bonds with Tenancy Services, it illustrates the lazy and unlawful shortcuts you're prepared to take at the expense of others.

If you ignore the warnings, you only have yourself to blame.

I knew you are clueless, I just didn't realise how much haha

It's something you see much less of in the more cohesive and less "multicultural" societies. -Brock Landers

North Korea? Hungary? Estonia?

Mono-cultural societies do have their own "arrogant and nasty mindset" aspects. They are more culturally rigid, that's a sort of definition of mono-cultural, that's what makes them cohesive.

You will be swapping one sort of nastiness for another.

For example mono-cultural societies will be far less tolerant of anything outside the norm and will vigorously shame or even be violent towards those that wish to live an alternative lifestyle.

Solo parenting and fathers abandoning families will generally not be tolerated so it will happen less often in these societies.

In NZ we are very tolerant. The problem is nature is not so tolerant. The virtuous and self sacrificing life will still reap huge dividends. The stable family unit, led by a virtuous and hardworking male, partnered with a loyal and hard working female, will produce good results.

Multi-culturalism ignores a very important aspect of nature and that is groups are at war with one another for resources. Different groups may not even be aware of this. Some groups will have advantages over others and will prevail.

For example Asians as a group have high household incomes, higher than Europeans. This is because they live slightly more virtuous and self sacrificing lives. They focus on children's education and will devote enormous resources toward this. They will do everything they can to ensure the success of their children. This motivates them to earn more.

Many Europeans will tend to believe the children should leave home early, fund their own education, be self sufficient, fund their own housing.

In the current environment who do you think will do best?

Good post Zachary. There are some stereotypes in there but it pretty much sums up my thoughts. Life can be unfair, but producing a stable family life where resources are gathered and redistributed according to need is my Elysium. Some cultures still hold to that, others not so much.

You would struggle to find any countries around the world so hell bent on destroying their national identity though mass immigration as New Zealand.

It wouldn't fly in almost any European, Asian or African country, nor in the Americas.

The closest I can think of is Fiji and look how that turned out.

I agree and it will be interesting to see how it all turns out. Many years ago I warned against going down this path. Yet it may work out. We are too far down the track now of forging a new identity. The bridges have been burnt. The fact is even though we have destroyed our "Barry Crump" identity we are still rated very highly. I do suspect things could change and we need to be careful.

It is strange indeed how it all worked out for me, this dystopia. I have expressed before my view that I am a man living amongst the ruins of an empire. But then becoming a feudal Darklord is not unattractive. I do treat my serfs tenants with the greatest of respect. Suddenly this is the best of all possible worlds..for me. You have to make the most of it, living in the ruins.

It's not all bad. I suggest embracing Globalism. The strong will survive. You are a smart dude Brock. You will be successful in this brave new world.The Global Cities are fundamentally Western constructs. Who knows what is around the next corner?

My husband's and his brother's experience is not one of a tolerant NZ. My husband was bullied mercilessly growing up and his gay younger brother suffered extreme mental illness trying to hide who he really was for over 30 years in a country where only role models for machismo men exist.

My husband left NZ, a man in his young 20's because he felt so oppressed as a highly intelligent, geeky and artistic man. He feels that whilst this has improved a little since the 90s, there is still an anti-intellectual hoo yah sport jock culture, endemic across NZ and that other types of men are othered by this. Some suggest that the extremely high incidence of youth suicide are also connected to this issue.

I rarely see openly gay couples in NZ. I don't think that is a sign of an open, inclusive culture.

Sounds like Wellington must be a bit more "provincial" than Auckland.

Bullying in NZ schools is a problem though.I think popular culture has a lot to answer for in causing a lot of misery for kids. If you aren't cool or sexy like someone out of music video your life can be hard. It's been like this since the seventies.

Zachary, no not at all, the opposite. My husband and his brother grew up in Auckland. My husband could not be persuaded to move back to NZ if it meant living in Auckland, so we moved to Wellington, which he experiences as a much more inclusive city. We did live in Auckland for 2 months while we found somewhere in Wellington, and my husband utterly hated it. The younger brother eventually moved out of Auckland too, but only a few years ago. He still doesn't feel able to walk down the street holding his long term partners hand anywhere in NZ though. I do see gay couples holding hands in Wellington, never in Auckland. I know there are gay bars and events in Auckland, but I certainly don't experience it as an inclusive, accepting place in general. At least not compared to other places in the world.

I just got back from Melbourne, which was different again. I would say that NZ has very strong conservative social values and the sporty-machismo-male is a very dominating presence. Not that there is anything wrong with that type of person either, but in absence of much else, it can have a negative affect.

You could be right. Thinking about it now I am pretty "macho" too.

https://youtu.be/Wz2_d6zWDhg

Of that I have no doubt ;-)

But just for clarity, i'm talking about a rugby-worshipping, beer swilling, ute driving hetero male. A male who would look blankly at an Elysian Fields reference ;-)

Do you observe something of an anti-intellectual culture in NZ (as others have)?

Yes and I saw it at a prestigious public school where my daughter didn't want to win an award because she would be mocked by her "basic white girl" friends. She now goes to an alternative private school.

Interesting. It may be a small sample, but I’ve been impressed by every Dio girl/woman I’ve met. I’m not sure what they do to them but I’d be very happy to end up with one as a daughter in law.

We don’t tolerate swearing in our home, and it’s not just the obvious words e.g. “retard” and “gay” started to emerge when the f and c words were heavily monitored so I suspect it’s a long road. FWIW I don’t see many heterosexual couples holding hands either. NZ is not a PDA accepting country in general.

As for intellectuals, go to the Art Gallery, Museum, Library, Theatre or APO and you will see some of them out and about, but they are obvious by their lack of numbers.

Now it seems that you are just taking the mickey and are not serious.

Immigration throughout Europe is changing the cultural landscape. Much of the US has changed markedly in recent decades due to immigration. In many areas, English is decidedly the second language. I'm guessing that your travel to 60 or so other countries must have somehow missed these cultural changes due to immigration.

I think Brock is right in that statistically NZ is more hellbent than the others but you are right in that all the Western countries are going down this path.

Brock must surely have gone to Paris in his travels.

It is a Global City thing though. It's like a whole new culture of multi-culturalism and tolerance in these places. Especially so in the New World cities - it's a whole new paradigm but still essentially Western style. The old ways can still be found in provincial towns.

I don't understand why Brock just doesn't move to some small town where houses are affordable and the culture is stuck in the 1950s.