Big variations in Barfoot & Thompson's latest auction results

Property

No sales were achieved at the Manukau auction but there was a 59% sales rate at an Auckland central suburbs auction

24th Jul 18, 9:42am by Greg Ninness

There were major ups and downs at the latest auctions conducted by Barfoot & Thompson.

The number of properties coming to auction is well down as many buyers and sellers go into hibernation mode for winter. Barfoots marketed 93 properties for auction last week and achieved sales on 29 of them, giving an overall sales clearance rate of 31%.

But there were big differences in the sales rates between individual auctions.

One of the biggest surprises was at the Manukau auction where 16 properties from south and east Auckland suburbs such as Papatoetoe, Manurewa, Flat Bush and Pakuranga were on the Order of Sale. Two sales were postponed just before the auction, and the rest all passed in for sale by negotiation and conditional offers received on another four post-auction.

None sold under the hammer.

It was a completely different story at the Shortland Street auction on 18 July, where 17 properties were on the Order of Sale, mostly from central suburbs such as Remuera, Mt Roskill and Mt Albert, with one being withdrawn from sale just prior to the auction, another three were sold prior to the auction and another seven were either sold under the hammer or immediately after the auction.

That gave an overall sales clearance rate of 59%.

At the main North Shore auction the sales clearance rate was 29% (see table below for the clearance rates at all of Barfoot's auctions last week).

Details of all the properties offered and the prices achieved on most of those that sold are available on or Residential Auction Results page.

**Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 16-22 July 2018**
Date	Venue	Sold	Not sold	Total	% Sold
16-22 July	On site	5	3	8	63%
17 July	Manukau	0	16	16	0
17 July	Shortland St, CBD.	1	4	5	20%
18 July	Shortland St, CBD.	10	7	17	59%
18 July	Pukekohe	2	3	5	40%
19 July	Shortland St, CBD.	0	7	7	0
19 July	North Shore	7	17	24	29%
20 July	Shortland St, CBD.	4	7	11	36%
Total	All venues	29	64	93	31%

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123 Comments

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 9:49am 1532382592

Not surprised with the 59% clearance rate for the central suburbs.

Inner-city suburbs currently have very few listings - and are increasingly sought-after with Auckland’s transport/traffic frustrations.

TTP

by Chessmaster | 24th Jul 18, 10:10am 1532383846

Yes agree. Our infrastructure is ffd and not any drastic changes coming anytime soon. Whilst I accept it's seriously expensive, the commute times are not worth savings in house price away from central.

by Mrs The Point | 24th Jul 18, 10:50am 1532386236

Hi tothepoint,

Talk about cherry picking the result that fits your narrative. How do you explain the 19 July Shorty St auction which had a 0% success rate?

MTP

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 7:07pm 1532416028

Hi MTP,

I merely commented on what Greg Niness highlighted in his text/headline above. In any case, the Auckland transport/traffic effect, is something I’ve mentioned on numerous past occasions. It’s a valid and important observation.

Chessmaster, above, happens to agree with me - and so do many others.

What’s your problem, MTP?

TTP

by J.C. | 24th Jul 18, 1:04pm 1532394241

Don't worry TTP. The sample size is too small anyway. You'll get limited insight from a sample size of 1, statistically speaking anyway.

by Nzdan | 24th Jul 18, 10:55am 1532386502

Good result for Manukau, 16 out of 16.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 11:02am 1532386947

Apparently next week they're going to offer buy 1 get 1 free in Manukau.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 11:19am 1532387986

Hi Nic Johnson,

Hope you’re correct - because I for one will be in with a grin! (-:

TTP

by Houses Overpriced | 24th Jul 18, 12:32pm 1532392320

Vultures usually are the first to grab at scraps

by Chairman Moa | 24th Jul 18, 12:55pm 1532393723

yeah, certain part of Manukau you will get a free raw meat eating Rottweiler for guard dog!

(Yes, I had short stint at Clover Park!!!)

by Double-GZ | 24th Jul 18, 10:57am 1532386675

It's winter so the numbers cannot be relied upon.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 11:06am 1532387190

Hey Double-GZ. You mean don't buy in Winter when you can wait for the 30% Off Spring Sale?

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 11:04am 1532387098

Fair comment, DGZ.

What’s interesting, however, is that this winter’s auction clearance rates for Auckland have been higher, overall, than those recorded for autumn & summer......

TTP

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 11:10am 1532387420

No they haven't TTP. 31% is well off where they were in Autumn and Summer

by Mrs The Point | 24th Jul 18, 11:15am 1532387728

Hi DGZ,

WTF? So because it is winter, "the numbers cannot be relied upon." Why exactly? Surely, they can be relied upon as much as any other seasons numbers?

MTP

by Pragmatist | 24th Jul 18, 11:26am 1532388366

Just the usual Denial of things that challenge their religion. Get used to it, you'll be seeing more of it from the spruikers in the coming months

by Nzdan | 24th Jul 18, 11:40am 1532389246

There is less desire for shelter in the winter months......

by Hardly | 24th Jul 18, 12:44pm 1532393068

Math hybernates during winter. You can only use math September - May.

by Cowpat | 24th Jul 18, 12:03pm 1532390597

Toothypoint,over time your comments have become edentulous .Perhaps Greg can change you.

by Kate | 24th Jul 18, 12:20pm 1532391653

Love the new word I had to look up the meaning for! Who is Greg?

Oops, I see now, the author of the piece.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 1:23pm 1532395436

Hi Kate,

Cowpat (our bovine friend) gets a buzz from using long words.

Tomorrow she's likely to use another long word, of which she knows the meaning - such as "wheelbarrow".

TTP (-;

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 1:39pm 1532396361

TTP, what I find most astounding is your willingness to completely discredit yourself. When proven wrong (which is a daily occurrence), rather than admit your clueless, you then use a scattergun approach on highly respected commentators. Do you not value self respect?

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 2:05pm 1532397958

Hi Retired-Poppy,

As you well know, you're the biggest PLONKER here.

Just last week, you forgot to take yield into account when assessing a housing investment...... (Thus, your conclusions were highly misleading and deceptive.)

Worse still, it was the second time you made that mistake this year! (You were pulled up both times.) But you don't learn from your own mistakes!

And a few weeks back, you said properties in Auckland were only selling above their RV if they were "rare or exceptional"........ In the same thread, robust evidence of recent Auckland sales was produced showing that the majority, in fact, sold for above their RV.

Retired-Poppy - you can't erase your botch-ups. There have been many of them - real howlers - and people like me have long memories.

When assessing the (appalling) quality of your contributions here, I never know whether to laugh or cry.

In fact, your ignorance is exceeded only by your anger, bitterness and tantrums (all of which are frequent occurrences here).

TTP

by Chairman Moa | 24th Jul 18, 2:09pm 1532398156

Retired-Poppy and TTP, are you married to each other? Stop squabbling! At least hold hand while arguing...

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 2:28pm 1532399313

Ha-ha-ha :) nope, definitely not married to this complete clown. His circus left town ages ago and left him stranded on this forum! Hes noticeably become quite angry and "frustrated" as of late. It might have been articles appearing that support term deposit returns over that of property - hmmmmm. Much like Mauldens articles on the fast approaching debt train, TTP never saw that one coming. Now he's highly embarrassed.

by Averageman | 24th Jul 18, 12:09pm 1532390996

Numbers low, sales low, especially in the fringe outer rings. Yields still low, interest rates in a low but stable holding position (for how long), council function low, availability of builders low. Will this be the new normal?

by BacktoPerth | 24th Jul 18, 12:13pm 1532391222

Wow.... terrible results.

by Hardly | 24th Jul 18, 12:43pm 1532392987

Wow those are terrible results.

Particularly Manukau 0/16.

by theglc | 24th Jul 18, 1:43pm 1532396590

31%!!!!! Another dismal clearance rate....

Sorry TTP but the Auckland housing market is still wallowing in the dungeon of despair while the executioner slowly sharpens his axe.

Shortly the blade will drop and we can sit back and watch the rolling heads...

by balance | 24th Jul 18, 1:45pm 1532396750

Anyone able to tell me when the foreign buyers ban takes effect?

by Mrs The Point | 24th Jul 18, 2:00pm 1532397605

Still in the Committee of the whole House stage. Been there for a couple of weeks now.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/docu…

by Averageman | 24th Jul 18, 2:54pm 1532400875

Supposed to be this month, but if you read submission and minor changes there is a lot of lobbying going on (Te Ari Golf course etc).

by HouseHunter | 24th Jul 18, 1:54pm 1532397274

Does anyone have stats on how many houses sell directly after auction?

by Double-GZ | 24th Jul 18, 3:21pm 1532402503

Auckland eruption could bring fast-moving hot surge
An Auckland eruption could force the evacuation of more than 400,000 people - but the biggest risk to life would come with a fast-rolling, bomb-like surge of hot rock and gas.

That's according to a researcher who has begun a new Earthquake Commission-funded study modelling what impacts a big blow in the city-wide Auckland Volcanic Field would have on homes and businesses.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12094425

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 3:34pm 1532403253

DGZ, your concerns imply the ""Motherland" is looking more attractive and cooler by the day. Do you think an eruption is before or after when the foreign buyers ban comes into force?

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 3:33pm 1532403202

DGZ. The relevance to the article being what exactly?

by Pragmatist | 24th Jul 18, 3:35pm 1532403345

Relevance: None
Purpose: To distract from the fact that sales are weak, prices are a bit squishy and things are likely to get worse.

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 3:46pm 1532403965

Nic, all spruikers are as unique as their own bazaar methods of denial. TTP creates a lot of smoke to mask his embarrassment, DGZ has resorted to apocalyptic scenarios that when compared to a property slump, the latter would be most welcomed!

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 4:27pm 1532406456

Hi Retired-Poppy,

If DGZ is using the distraction technique (as Pragmatist suggests [above]) he could only have learned it from one person here - namely yourself.

Time and time again, I have seen you use distraction/diversion techniques........

In fact, it's your primary strategy when you've been pulled up for making one of your (frequent) blunders.

Rather than accept responsibility for your botch-ups, you hasten to change the topic. That's just not cricket.

You would do much better to accept responsibility - withdraw/amend the offending statement and apologise (just as decent people do).

I have done exactly that in the recent past, on at least two occasions. I take it on the chin, where appropriate.

Errors do get made - but the way the error-maker handles the situation is an excellent test of their integrity.

TTP

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 4:00pm 1532404836

This may interest you RP

I've been out looking for a place for a friends' mum this weekend and subsequently been to LINZ to get the low down on three places we looked at. which again has lead me to seriously question the state of NZ banks' loan books and how they have been assessing security risk. Maybe we'll find out when the confidentiality agreement is lifted between them and the reserve bank. But for now,

1. House number 1. Previous owner bought in February 2016 for $750,000 - then mortgage lodged at LINZ in April 2016 for wait for it $1,125,000.
2. House number 2 bought in June 2010 for $1,120,000 -mortgage lodged at LINZ in August 2010 for $1,680,000
3. House number 3 bought by previous owner in September 2014 for £812,000 - refinanced in Dec 2016 for wait for in $1,380,000.

It would appear to me that maybe the reason for the very low clearance rates at present is that are a lot of people are borrowed up to the eyeballs... And before the spruikers start bleating we only looked at three houses this weekend and that was scary enough for me.

Terrifying levels of debt though.

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 4:20pm 1532406056

Thanks Nic. This is a timely reminder of a timebomb lying in wait as the market continues its decent. TTP, any more smoke you'd like to add? There's no more hiding from the truth!

by Mrs The Point | 24th Jul 18, 5:16pm 1532409392

Nic, Are you sure this is the mortgage amount you are getting and not the total security amount that the banks hold over the property?

by Pragmatist | 24th Jul 18, 5:23pm 1532409782

Yeah, this does seem a bit overboard.. a (semi-)random sample of three properties and they all have hugely over-leveraged mortgages on them? Maybe one of the three I'd believe.

Either those aren't the actual mortgage values, or if they are, I think envelopes fill of bank notes stuffed under the mattress are safer than in the bank.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 5:31pm 1532410276

They all come with date that the mortgage was logged, the names of the mortgagee, the bank involved in the financing and they even have the name of the broker who placed the mortgage. Lots of evidence, should trials ever be necessary.

by Pragmatist | 24th Jul 18, 5:37pm 1532410678

Not doubting your honesty Nic, just wondered if there had been a misinterpretation of the numbers at your end. Thats really rather scary.

Edit. so the clarify, you go to the LINZ website and order the Property Title and plans for $15 , then you use that to get the mortgage instrument reference and order that for another $15? Is it possible to get the mortgage instruments for $15 and somehow skip the first step?

by Mrs The Point | 24th Jul 18, 6:19pm 1532413145

It is my understanding that the bank registers a mortgage over the property for roughly double the lending amount.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 6:42pm 1532414550

No MTP, they register the mortgage amount. (what I would refer to as the value or acquisition drawdown) ... Plus interest.. In fact most of these instruments state 'plus interest'

by Andrewj | 24th Jul 18, 6:42pm 1532414556

I would have thought they would have had to declare that to the owner. Personally I always kept my mouth shut when the bank asked what security I had.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 7:15pm 1532416526

AndrewJ

It's part of what a credit checking agency would generally do if you were ever to want to know the state of a business partners finances before embarking on that partnership... I once went into business with a guy who looked golden but was actually up to his hock in housing debt, I didn't find out until we both needed to inject capital.. he actually had no capital as it turned out, because all his cash went out on a mortgage to keep his very good looking wife happy... we came to an arrangement.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 6:40pm 1532414433

yep

Pragmatist

Just $15 per document and all you want is the 'mortgage instrument'

When it asks for document type. Select 'Instrument'
Record - type the address of the property'
Notes.. 'I would like to receive the mortgage instrument for the above property. ' I always add 'Thank you'

Everyone you deal with at LINZ is lovely so be nice to them

by Andrewj | 24th Jul 18, 6:56pm 1532415376

I feel I'm invading peoples privacy.

by Andrewj | 24th Jul 18, 4:21pm 1532406106

Thats scary stuff Nic. Frighten the horses. I can see the logic behind the OBR now, it's a Ponzi scheme.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 5:58pm 1532411906

Yep Andrewj,

I think it is and I'd invite you to investigate just a couple of homes that are currently for sale at the upper end of your local market. It's all well and good me reporting this but if other respected commentators do the same then I think that it will hold more merit. If my investigations are replicated, I think that most people will get a shock result that makes no sense within 2 or 3 searches at LINZ against previous sale prices. The problems seem to start on transactions post 2010 and it is generally the upper end of the market where this has occurred more frequently.

by Crazy Horse | 24th Jul 18, 4:31pm 1532406686

Nic J .... this is what all the "spruikers" ie TTP, DGZ et al conveniently forget !!

Thank you for sharing those figures with us - that's whats happening at the "coal face", not something that has been "conjoured and contorted" up by some spruiker, that has so much "skin in the game' they are terrified beyond belief that the "PPP" (property ponzi party) could be over !

Can anyone tell me (not that the banks will !!) how the banks true "mood of the boardroom" is at the moment, with figures like those 3 cases above ?!!

They all glibly go on, as if they can raise interest rates anytime they want to.....but what would happen with the 3 scenarios above and each of those situations - with all that debt !?!

Pehaps TTP can "enlighten" us with his "exit strategy" out of those 3 !?!

by Averageman | 24th Jul 18, 4:42pm 1532407379

Clearly some sort of fraud/laundering being constructed there to get more money out of the bank that is legit or due. Wasn't there a case last year where one our our recent arrivals was prosecuted for fraud on something that looked very like this?

by RickStrauss | 24th Jul 18, 7:41pm 1532418096

On the upside, an eruption would create more isthmus we could put houses on...at least if we can do it before Auckland Council prevents it being built on.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 4:50pm 1532407844

Hi Crazy Horse,

If I made allegations/generalisations here that were based on a sample of just 3 cases, you and your DGM mates would SLAM me........ "Unscientific and invalid" you would scream!

Ironically, it's the DGM that has CRASHED - not the housing market.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 5:07pm 1532408860

TTP, in Australia there are AU$500 Billion reasons to argue your flawed "nothing to see here" approach. The verdict is still out on "NZ bank staff selling mortgage culture" and its possible fallout as the FMA are currently investigating.

Best think first before making such shallow assumptions. I suggest you might want to give up "smoking"

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 5:44pm 1532411041

TTP

These are not allegations/generalisations when the details are all real and publicly available. These houses transacted and were subsequently re-financed for figures well beyond their very recent purchase prices. How?

If others would like to check go to LINZ and pay $15 for the mortgage instrument on your own property (if you have a mortgage) and see if the loan that was taken out coincides with the loan that you took out when you last re-financed. Anyone can do it.

https://www.linz.govt.nz/land/land-records/order-copy-land-record/land-…

Make sure that you put in the address of the property and request the 'Mortgage Instrument'

Then do 2 others on houses that are for sale at the top end of your local market ($30) bucks each and report back on what you find. Lets to an 'Interest'ing experiment amongst our readership. And lets all report back exactly what we find.

Obviously some of us may not want to publish the extent of our personal mortgage folly... Please keep owners addresses out of the public eye as that is not fair. Lets see what we all turn up! I've just requested 2 more which I will report on (probably Thursday).

Nic

by Andrewj | 24th Jul 18, 6:04pm 1532412288

Well I have some locals who i think have huge farm debts, are you telling me I can find out how much for $15?

by Pragmatist | 24th Jul 18, 11:53pm 1532433198

$30+. 15 to get the title record, then $15 to get each mortgage instrument.

Just decided to waste $60, and see how leveraged my landlord is, since this will no doubt affect the likelihood of him putting rent up with capital gains disappearing, and also to randomly check a rental property that the owner is trying to sell from trademe.

I'll post results once I get them.

Edit: after trolling thru the LINZ website and a bit of googling, i've just wasted $30 on two linz reports. It is now apparent to me that the vast majority of mortgages registered on the Linz database are "All obligation" encumbrances, and that the amount registered is the priority amount, which is the some multiple of the value of the mortgage, being (from my incomplete understanding) an estimate + headroom of the maximum amount the bank may need to recover if they let the let the lender get well behind on the mortgage before taking the house or if they later increase lending using the same property as a security. And it therefore bears no useful relationship to the actual amount of the mortgage advanced on the property by the bank, other than the real mortgage value is far less than the prioroity amount.

https://www.linz.govt.nz/kb/309 - LINZ Knowledge base showing the entry of an All Obligations Instrument.
https://www.linz.govt.nz/kb/469 - Linz Knowledgebase showing entry of a fixed sum mortagage- bottom image on page, (I gather that this type might return actual value of the mortgage, but it is not from what I have read the normal way of doing things)

http://www.ffgl.co.nz/latest-news/what-is-a-priority-amount/

by Andrewj | 24th Jul 18, 6:19pm 1532413167

Im thinking this will scare the daylights out of me.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 6:22pm 1532413368

But you're a curious fellow I think.. My guess is that you won't be able to stop at 2...... I did 10 the first time and when I got out of the hospital three weeks later still went back and did another 10.

by Andrewj | 24th Jul 18, 6:32pm 1532413938

I'm going to ring 5 or 6 mates and go in together, tough times are coming. I was thinking AKL could look like Southern California, now I'm thinking Nagasaki

by Houses Overpriced | 24th Jul 18, 9:32pm 1532424776

More like Hiroshima, once the Ponzi scheme blows up

by Rex Pat | 24th Jul 18, 6:24pm 1532413476

Whatever you get won’t be accurate as mortgage documents are often left in place when debts are repaid and you won’t know the type of facility or what the mortgage secures. For example if you checked my property you’d see a mortgage but you wouldn’t see it has all been repaid.

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 7:01pm 1532415672

Rex Pat.. Agree.... but when a mortgage has been taken out on the last 3-5 years the chances of it being repaid, i.e a 25 year term mortgage typically pays 10% off the capital over 5 years - so 90% outstanding balance. if the mortgage instrument is 20 years old likelihood is they're close to done and maybe can actually afford to sell.

remember 1/3 of the country hold $400,000 average debt. and 8% of the 1/3 hold $666k (the devils number in debt).... now that's their problem and no young person should be getting them out of that hole they jumped into all by themselves..

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 6:55pm 1532415314

Andrewj

Now, I haven't checked any farms but if there is an address and a mortgage against it I would assume it's all at LINZ.. So yes.

by Roelof | 24th Jul 18, 9:12pm 1532423533

Nic... This does not sound right to me...
I looked at my own mortgage document, and the one which was lodged with LINZ when I purchased.
( physical doc. ... not LINZ provided )
My purchase price was $670,000 and my mortgage was $150,000.
The "priority sum" , which was on the document is $1,012,500 plus interest.
( this is the doc. that my lawyer lodges with LINZ )

No Bank is going to lend in excess of the value of a house , unless they are duped... ie. criminal fraud is committed..

Maybe the figures you are quoting is this, so called .."priority sum"..?/

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 9:50pm 1532425854

Roelof,

It generally takes 2-3 days to acquire all this info from LINZ and they are marvellous (so your comment has been very quick in its response - I am not suggesting anything disingenuous} .. If you're completely happy to provide me with your address and the time of purchase I'll be able to see if your numbers are real and check against debt offerings.???

Nic

by Roelof | 24th Jul 18, 10:51pm 1532429516

Nic.. I did not use LINZ... I said I looked at my docs.. , which included the doc that my lawyers passed onto LINZ..
My address is 389 Hillsborough rd, Hillsborough, Auckland
The linz dealing number on that doc is 9090711
Date of purchase /settlement 10 aug 2012

Cheers !

by Pragmatist | 24th Jul 18, 11:45pm 1532432717

heh, if you hear random tooting its me driving past on the way to bunnings :P

99% chance the number Nic comes up with is the Priority amount, not the mortgage sum, see my edited post above.

by mja | 25th Jul 18, 12:16am 1532434590

Roelof, the figure of $1,012,500 is the priority amount. The bank registers a figure over and above the value of the property, that it can lend up to plus interest. This saves them having to redraw legal documents if you want to increase borrowing in 10-15 years if property has appreciated a significant amount. Standard practice, to save on possible future legal fees, and has nothing to do with what they may actually lend on the property. Sounds like some punters are flushing dollars down the toilet investigating priority amounts.

by Ex Expat | 25th Jul 18, 10:01am 1532469691

Checked my docs. Priority amount is $1,360,000 plus interest. Never borrowed anywhere near that amount and owe nothing now, albeit I do have a revolver facility. Conclusion is that all you could correctly ascertain from that is that I had a mortgage at a certain date.

by Crazy Horse | 24th Jul 18, 6:10pm 1532412632

ttp ....I have just read your response and I am assuming "DGM" stands for, in your vocabulary, "doom & gloom merchant" of which I am not. I just like to illustrate (thanks to Nic J) the "other side" of the story.

If I had seen 3 properties and all 3 properties had those scenarios, it would certainly trigger my interest. Also, as you would shout from the rooftops - a 100% result !

You may say that the DGM's are negative - but in all fairness, if I was fiirst home buyer, I would take your advice with a "grain of salt" and do the opposite !

In Auckland (been here all my life) there has always been money around and there will always be people that can afford to buy, no matter what the market conditions.

My thoughts is that here in NZ (and Australia) there is a private debt mountain (see NZ Reserve Bank figures) , that is ready for the "mother of all avalanches" when the banks, who as you know, are now not dishing out credit like "lolly water" to all and sundry.

So if they aren't growing their mortgage books, they will put up interest rates regardless to cover their decreases in profit and "one (or 2) of the three" examples above, that could fall over.

And once interest rates go up (cost of money ttp to enlighten you) not only will peoples mortgage interest payments go up, but many other costs too, as it not just the "astute propertee investoor" that drives the economy .

So you keep "raving on" just how great it is, in your own myopic world, but anyone out there looking at buying themselves their first home (esp. in Auckland) do your own homework, as remember people like ttp et al are only "talking up their book" and have a huge personal interest in keeping the PPP (property ponzi party) going !

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 6:21pm 1532413304

Crazy Horse, well said. TTP has done a complete about face after posting a gloomy comment in Feb 2017 @10am. Since then he has became an Auckland based REA. You are spot on that FHB's should steer clear of his advice, interpretations and views as they're all self serving.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/86171/nz-house-prices-look-set-fall…

TTP is highly embarrassed this comment has been exposed.

by swapacrate | 24th Jul 18, 6:28pm 1532413694

"A fall of a mere 12% over the next 3-4 years would be a soft-landing, given the spectacular gains of the recent past. So, hardly a forecast to get too uptight about. But the fall could be more pronounced than that - shouldn't rule that out. Auckland property prices are in decline now. Unless there's a compelling personal reason, why would one buy a house in Auckland at this juncture? Better to "buy low and sell high" than the other way around - every Joe & Jill Bloggs knows that. And that's exactly the reason buyer confidence is fragile - as indicated by the falling numbers attending open homes (while sellers/investors are striding towards the door in increasing volumes). Buyers have largely got the message that biding one's time is a prudent strategy right now, while over-geared owners/investors are displaying a nervousness not evident a few months back. Buyers - waiting through autumn and winter just might have a silver lining for you......"

And here I was thinking TTP was only a comedian of the big red nose type, now I see he is truly a comedian of Eddie Murphy proportions that is funny. Quality.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 7:21pm 1532416898

Hi Retired-Poppy,

NOT an "about face" at all! I have always been completely UP-FRONT about my change in view.

I made very clear in MARCH 2017 that I had changed my position and that I now believed there would be no crash.

I have reiterated that point a number of times since.......

My reasoning, which you (and others here) are VERY AWARE of, is that the upswing of 2014-16 was due to (largely) STRUCTURAL factors rather than mere cyclical factors. House prices would not fall dramatically but fluctuate within a narrow band for the foreseeable future. In other words, house prices would be "sticky down".

As it turned out, my revised position of March 2017 has been spot-on. There has been NO crash. As the REINZ headline of last week stated, the market has proven RESILIENT. That particular word is one I've used many times since March 2017 - as you are well aware.

RETIRED-POPPY - it is perfectly legitimate to change one's view in accordance with one's best judgement. (In fact, it would be dishonest not to do so.) By making allegations about me that you know very well are incorrect, you further DISCREDIT yourself.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 7:13pm 1532416405

Translation, "I became an Auckland based Real Estate Agent in March 2017"

It's pretty clear your motives are far from sincere. Why conjure up baseless comments in an attempt to discredit commentators (such as myself) who expose your motives? Are you getting desperate?

You're such a worm.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 7:32pm 1532417559

Hi Retired-Poppy,

There are a very large number of people that have reached the same conclusion as me.

Do you suppose they have all become Auckland-based real estate agents........?

Or is this just more of your endless, unsubstantiated nonsense?

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 8:01pm 1532419292

TTP, you say "There are a very large number of people that have reached the same conclusion as me"

This only proves some parents will say just about anything to silence a noisy kid!

Have you considered selling vacuum cleaners instead of houses? Clean up some mess as you go....

by Houses Overpriced | 24th Jul 18, 9:40pm 1532425217

One assumption that you're a real estate agent is you have sooooooo much time to blog, considering that the market is quite makes perfect sense...

Don't worry, you'll have heaps more time on your hands in a couple of months

by CJ099 | 24th Jul 18, 7:11pm 1532416308

Ttp you're simply deluding yourself and others because you are an RE, look about you. If other neighboring property economies are starting to fail since the free money tap has been turned off from China, how the hell do you expect little NZ to do better?

Australian property prices will get worse as a mini-credit crunch takes hold
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-property-prices-mini-cred…

Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster
https://www.ft.com/content/8cb9f0fa-0a61-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2

by nymad | 24th Jul 18, 7:52pm 1532418774

STRUCTURAL factors rather than mere cyclical factors.

You are still yet to tell any of us what these (influential) structural factors are...? Or are you still confused of the meaning - hence why you and ZS were arguing that immigration was a structural factor?

I am still unaware of what significant supply side changes occurred during 2014-2016. Surely I'm not the only one..?
I thought economists was pretty much in agreement that the increase was demand driven (given fixed LUR) - interest rates and immigration? (both demand side/cyclical, btw TTP).
The only thing you could argue is the initial effect of the AUP announcement - but that's is expected to be a transitory effect. And it's localised only to the Auckland market - whereas price increases were not.

by Roelof | 24th Jul 18, 8:45pm 1532421903

One structural factor was the Unitary Plan... It has resulted in a , kinda, one off revaluation of land, depending on the zoning.
Anecdotally, in my area, developers were paying lots money for free standing dwellings on full sections, in anticipation of the plan. ....

by nymad | 25th Jul 18, 8:24am 1532463893

Yep. As mentioned.
And also as mentioned - (expected) should be a transitory effect. Medium to long term, the expectation is for it to provide supply pressure on prices. So arguing that it, itself, is a factor to underpin higher long term average price growth isn't accurate.

by Roelof | 25th Jul 18, 9:24am 1532467442

In regards to 2014-2016, I'd argue that the Unitary Plan has had a permanent, one-off shift in land prices.
( In the same way changing gst to 15% had a one shift in prices )

The higher order effects of the Unitary plan , will have an influence on the cyclical aspects, related to supply/demand.... over time.

Just my way of seeing it...!

by nymad | 25th Jul 18, 9:46am 1532468819

Agree. But we weren't specifically talking about land prices - general property values.
The AUP has only had an impact on upzoned property land values.
And the extent to which it has affected such properties is relative to the site intensity of the property.
Properties with no upzoning or high intensity didn't get a relative bump, in prices.

My point was it is a structural factor to improve (effective) supply, that although providing an initial bump in property prices will not underpin a long term higher level of property price growth.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 9:19pm 1532423958

Hi nymad,

You're still grappling re cyclical/structural etc. And, ok, it takes some working through. I still ponder it too.

For one thing, no, economists are not "pretty much in agreement" that the increase was demand-driven. Far from it. Various arguments/ hypotheses have been put forward - and continue to be put forward. What's new? The debates usually don't conclude quickly and definitively in the economics discipline and new theories often displace older theories. As Milton Friedman said, theories ought to be judged according to the criteria of "simplicity" and "fruitfulness". (You might be aware of his often-quoted paper on Methodology.)

Of course, all the structural (and supply) factors impacting on the NZ housing market did not suddenly emerge through 2014/16 - but at least part of the culmination/cumulative impact could be seen (and interpreted) in that era and likely reinforcing/bolstering an underlying cyclical movement?? That's what dawned on me about March 2017 when I formed a new hypothesis/view of what was going on. I considered that the NZ housing market wasn't going to bust or go into sharp decline - as occurred with certain other countries (and as foreseen by many contributors here) because NZ's situation was fundamentally different.

Migration flows are almost certainly a blend of cyclical and structural - and difficult to delineate the relative proportions.

Suggest you continue with a literature search (as I do) and go back to my posts of a year ago (and further back) where I gave detailed accounts of the nature and shape of structural factors. (There's been a range of structural factors relevant in NZ and I recall you had no disagreement with the way I explained/outlined them at that time.)

TTP

by nymad | 25th Jul 18, 8:29am 1532464141

Oh.
So. Again. You can't give us any structural factors.
Great. Thanks for proving my point.

Various arguments/ hypotheses have been put forward - and continue to be put forward.
Cool - can you name some?
Just note that I said under a condition of fixed LUR.
You always spout on about your (flawed) understanding of economics - primarily the Marshallian system - tell us less intelligent folk what price does when supply is fixed and demand is changing.

You should really get some help for that inferiority complex.
It will do you well in the long run.

by tothepoint - d… | 25th Jul 18, 8:53am 1532465591

Hi nymad,

Structural factors have been listed & discussed here before - and you have read & commented on them in the past. (Plus, there is abundant other literature on them.)

If you’re having trouble with your memory, go do a search! You’re a big boy (or girl) now - no one should be spoon-feeding you.

TTP

by nymad | 25th Jul 18, 9:04am 1532466241

Oh, cmon.
Just give us some, TTP.
Surely it isn't difficult for someone of you intellectual prowess to do...

Surely also you don't want people thinking you can't substantiate your claims.
God forbid you lose that exceptional reputation for reasoning that you have!

by tothepoint - d… | 25th Jul 18, 10:20am 1532470836

Hi Nymad,

There are plenty of non-economists who are familiar with structural vs cyclical factors. It's hardly rocket science.

You claim to have a background in economics/economic statistics. If so, go read the literature. I'm not repeating things that I've written here before - just for the sake of a slug like you.

In dealing with you, I'm reminded of the old proverb, "You can lead a donkey to water, but you can't make it drink".

Get off your chuff and show some initiative.

TTP
P.S. And go find out how to draw a Marshallian Cross Diagram while you're at it.

by Retired-Poppy | 25th Jul 18, 10:33am 1532471627

TTP, its a bit of a quiet morning huh? Get of your own chuff, do some cold calling and maybe a leaflet drop or two. Convince those vendors today's more astute buyer is circling at a much lower altitude.

Maybe soon you'll grow some smarts and discover that by taking your anger and frustrations out on other commentators doesn't deliver commission cheques either.

by RickStrauss | 24th Jul 18, 7:27pm 1532417278

A fall of a mere 12% over the next 3-4 years would be a soft-landing, given the spectacular gains of the recent past. So, hardly a forecast to get too uptight about. But the fall could be more pronounced than that - shouldn't rule that out. Auckland property prices are in decline now. Unless there's a compelling personal reason, why would one buy a house in Auckland at this juncture? Better to "buy low and sell high" than the other way around - every Joe & Jill Bloggs knows that. And that's exactly the reason buyer confidence is fragile - as indicated by the falling numbers attending open homes (while sellers/investors are striding towards the door in increasing volumes). Buyers have largely got the message that biding one's time is a prudent strategy right now, while over-geared owners/investors are displaying a nervousness not evident a few months back. Buyers - waiting through autumn and winter just might have a silver lining for you.......

That's quite...different, from our friend ToThePoint. Clicking on that link surprised me.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 9:24pm 1532424288

Hi RickStrauss,

Your quote above is way out of date - February 2017 as I recall.

I changed my view in March 2017 - see my post above.

As it turns out, my revised position (since March 2017) has accorded with what has happened.

TTP

by RickStrauss | 24th Jul 18, 9:48pm 1532425733

That's quite some Damascus moment, though.

by Crazy Horse | 25th Jul 18, 12:53pm 1532480006

R-P had a look at "to the point" aka "off the mark" February 2017 post......sounds like a different person !

Here are some quotes from that masterpiece.........

"Auckland property prices are in decline now."

"Unless there's a compelling personal reason, why would one buy a house in Auckland at this juncture?"

"Better to "buy low and sell high" than the other way around - every Joe & Jill Bloggs knows that."

"And that's exactly the reason buyer confidence is fragile - as indicated by the falling numbers attending open homes (while sellers/investors are striding towards the door in increasing volumes)."

"Buyers have largely got the message that biding one's time is a prudent strategy right now, while over-geared owners/investors are displaying a nervousness not evident a few months back"

If you compare the above quotes with what "off the mark" says now, his current rhetoric is just pure and unadulterated ####!

PS ...also see RickStrauss copied in tpp's February 2017 masterpiece in it's entirety ....thanks RS

by Retired-Poppy | 25th Jul 18, 1:17pm 1532481431

Crazy Horse, it certainly is a masterpiece. For some time now TTP has labeled those commentators, (myself included), urging FHB's to practice caution as deceiving, misleading DGM's with an agenda to give FHB's a bum steer and the biggest classic of all - to crash the house market!

The unearthing of this masterpiece has left him desperate and embarrassed, not to mention stuck for a reasonable explanation other than becoming a Real Estate Agent.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 6:18pm 1532413122

Hi Crazy Horse,

You write, "I am assuming "DGM" stands for, in your vocabulary, "doom & gloom merchant" of which I am not."

Indeed, it's interesting to note how many people here are now seeking to distance themselves from the DGM tribe.

Further, the remaining members of the DGM tribe are far less often talking of a "crash"......

They have become a mere shadow of their former selves - and largely impotent.

TTP

by swapacrate | 24th Jul 18, 6:35pm 1532414123

TTP your the only one that mentions crash, most mention that houses are unaffordable, banks have been lending like there's no tomorrow, and lending has tightened and prices are dropping. Some say what they think a correction should look like. But other then you, find a person who has used the words crash. Your like a propaganda machine or a Putinbot. But you are persistent, you are a great at pushing your point across, just like a sales person.

Anyway after what RP has posted your credibility, if you ever had any, has taken a bit of a turn.

by Houses Overpriced | 24th Jul 18, 9:44pm 1532425441

You seem to recognise impotent people, that would explain your frustration in life, poor you

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 5:31pm 1532410277

Hi Retired-Poppy,

I enjoy vigorous debate but it needs to be based on objectivity - not on unscientific data that happens to coincide with one's own (negative) agenda.

Someone else might pick 3 wealthy, cashed-up Auckland industrialists who are struggling to find top real estate to invest in (or reside)........ But, really, it would be spurious to draw wide generalisations from such "data". (N.B. In reality, there are far more than 3 Auckland industrialists who currently fit this category.)

Retired-Poppy, to use semantics that you will (hopefully) grasp....... I'm just not interested in pissing in the wind - as I dislike wetting my trouser legs. Though, if you wish to wet your own trouser legs, then go ahead and do so with my blessing.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 5:55pm 1532411756

TTP, before you answer the call of nature, (think first). (Which way is the wind is blowing)? A smart person would (prepare) themselves better before venturing out. Good grief man!

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 5:51pm 1532411512

I do have another one for you which I looked at last week
Bought in September 2012 for $745,000.
Mortgage taken out against the property 30/06/2014 for ………. $1,170,000.
For some reason no one has been interested in paying then $1,400,000 to get them out of the hole.

I hope that you don't wet yourself TTP.

by Nzdan | 24th Jul 18, 6:56pm 1532415365

2/154 Orakei Road, Remuera? I’m guessing you’ve tweaked the numbers/dates ever so slightly for privacy reasons?

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 7:02pm 1532415755

Nzdan .. No this one is from a Wellington Region investigation.. the numbers are genuine.

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 6:06pm 1532412378

Hi Nic Johnson,

Suggest you keep searching - because 4 cases is not nearly enough to give you any credibility.

TTP

by Solidname | 24th Jul 18, 6:11pm 1532412709

Says the man who whoops and hollers when 4 houses at auction are sold...

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 6:13pm 1532412838

TTP

Credibility mmmh, Now that is a strange comment from someone who offers nothing by way of detail.. For your information, I've got hundreds of these case studies, which is why I feel very well qualified to comment...

I've asked other respected commentators to investigate their locales and see what they uncover. Lets see who takes me up on it. Sleep well.

Nic

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 6:20pm 1532413243

Oh TTP - here's another.. Auction this week. Bought 1983 for $55k. Mortgage for $2,400,000 taken out in 2016... RV currently $2,000,000. It has been on for a very long time this one but I guess the 'Fools Gold' is running out and the Auction is the final resting place.

Now I reckon someone, maybe the bank, maybe the owner will be getting disappointed this week.

Do you want more?

Nic

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 6:28pm 1532413714

Hi Nic.

You write, "I've got hundreds of these case studies, which is why I feel very well qualified to comment."

Suggest you ask Retired-Poppy to give you a pat on the back.

Sadly, mere "hundreds of cases" won't suffice. You need to think in an order of magnitude of "thousands of cases".

Keep searching, old chap....... it will help you fill your days. (-: (-:

TTP

by Nic Johnson | 24th Jul 18, 7:04pm 1532415873

I am hoping that my good friends at interest.co.nz will carry out and share their own investigations.. It's kind of exciting don't you think TTP?

by tothepoint - d… | 24th Jul 18, 7:18pm 1532416730

Hi Nic Johnson,

That's a novel way of saying that you're backing down - wiggling your way out.

Hardly exciting.......

TTP

by Scarletmanuka | 25th Jul 18, 3:42pm 1532490164

Hi Nic, I pulled the Mortgage Instrument for my own house, but the report is largely non-sensical (or, more likely, I'm an ignoramous). It has a priority amount of $600k (lodged in 2009) but the house wouldn't have been worth a fraction of that amount back them.

My wife and I bought our house (our first home) in 2013 for $400k with a mortgage of $340k, but this isn't mentioned anywhere in the mortgage instrument that LINZ sent me.

by Pragmatist | 25th Jul 18, 3:51pm 1532490668

Yep, priority amount is set higher than the banks thinks they will ever let you get in debt to them, including if you refinance 5 years down the track. It has no useful relationship to the size of the mortgage.

by Double-GZ | 24th Jul 18, 8:08pm 1532419690

CV $8,800,000 Asking $6,750,000
14B Te Kowhai Place, Remuera
A real bargain if you're looking to buy well below the CV lol ^^
https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auctio…

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 8:20pm 1532420455

DGZ, looks like just another Remuera monolithic leaky monstrosity (and there's many). Change the cladding and then I'll take notice. Your idea of a bargain is a bit of a worry to be honest. Presuming its weatherboard, the older house immediatly behind it looks more my style!

by Double-GZ | 24th Jul 18, 8:23pm 1532420621

That is my house. Not for sale ^^

by Retired-Poppy | 24th Jul 18, 8:29pm 1532420985

$0, for your wannabe dream. That's my FINAL OFFER!

by CJ099 | 24th Jul 18, 9:21pm 1532424071

So what's the average below CV sale price in your area now DGZ? -20% and falling by the looks of it.

by Zachary Smith | 25th Jul 18, 6:00am 1532455204

CJ099 in my area, Greenlane/Central the median sale price was 1.4M and the median CV was 1.38M. Not sure what you are looking at to get that figure.

Here is Barfoots June report:

https://issuu.com/barfootsuburbsales/docs/greenlane_central_mag_june_18…

by THE MAN 2 | 29th Jul 18, 1:42pm 1532828529

This “priorityamount” mentioned in the mortgage document that is registered at LINZ, are the mortgages made aware of the amo7 t?

We have heaps of mortgages registered but I can’t recall seeing the “priority amount” on the Bank,s mortgage documents!