The latest National Construction Pipeline Report says the industry will need to invest more to take advantage of steady growth, instead of relying on quick fixes like importing workers

The latest National Construction Pipeline Report says the industry will need to invest more to take advantage of steady growth, instead of relying on quick fixes like importing workers

The construction sector is set for a period of sustained long term growth, ending the previous patterns of boom and bust cycles, according to the National Construction Pipeline Report 2018.

"The forecast is for strong long term growth," the report says.

"For the first time in the history of this report the national forecast does not predict a peak during the forecast period.

"Instead the 2018 forecast is for consistent building and construction activity in the next few years with stronger growth expected towards the end of the forecast period."

The report's forecasts include:

  • Residential building value expected to hold steady for the next few years before increasing to a forecast high at $26.6 billion in 2013.
  • Dwelling consents are expected to increase year-on-year to a forecast high of 43,100 in 2023.
  • Non-residential building value is expected to peak at $8.4 billion in 2019.
  • Infrastructure is forecast to remain relatively unchanged, increasing marginally to $7.3 billion in 2023.
  • Total construction is expected to grow steadily to a forecast high of $41.4 billion in 2023.

"The forecast indicates to the construction sector that it can have confidence in the demand for future building and construction work and can therefore invest effectively to scale up production (via technological development, skills and training, new efficiencies) to produce at high volume in the future, rather than relying on quick fix methods of increasing capacity (bringing in skills from overseas, utilising spare capacity, borrowing resources from construction-related industries) to meet a short term construction boom.

The report offers some especially good news on the housing front, forecasting that new dwelling consents will reach a new peak for the next five years, staying above 31,500 a year between 2017 and 2022 and peaking at 34,500 in 2019 and 2020.

Growth is also expected to be sustained for longer in Auckland than other regions, with growth in other regions expected to peak and begin to decline in 2019/20 while growth in Auckland is expected to remain at peak levels until 2022.

The report also found that the recent growth in average house sizes had plateaued and was starting to decline in some regions.

The report is produced annually by BRANZ, building economic consultancy Pacifecon and the Ministry of Business innovation & Employment. 

Here is the full report:

PDF iconNational Construction Pipeline Report 2018.pdf is keeping a list of major Auckland construction projects, given that these will add to a nationally-significant value and stress the capacity of the construction industry to recruit for them.

At this stage we plan only to list projects that will have a total cost of about $100 mln, but other smaller projects that have key icon or infrastructure importance may also be included.

This list was last updated on 29 July 2018.

Project Due to
Due to
($ mln)
Intl Convention Centre Dec-15 2018 700 Downtown
Commercial Bay / Precinct Jun-16 Q4-19 940 Downtown
City Rail Link Nov-15 2021? 3,400 Downtown
Park Hyatt 5-star hotel, Viaduct 2016 2019 200 Downtown
One Market Square hotel, Viaduct 2018 2020 ~200 Downtown
NGD Tower, 52-story Albert St bldg ??? ??? 350 Downtown
Sofitel hotel, Commerce St     50 Downtown
America's Cup bases 2018 2019 212 Downtwon
Waterview Connection [completed] 2013 2017   Inner West
One55 Fanshawe Street 2018 2019 100 Downtown
Major Watercare projects        
- Warkworth wastewater network 2018   193 North
- Northern Interceptor 2018   538 North
- Nth Harbour No.2 Watermain 2018   264 North
- Huia Water Treatment plant 2017 2018 185 West
- Central stormwater/wastewater upgrade 2016 2028 520 Central
- Central Interceptor 2019 2025 950 Central
- Mangere plant upgrade 2015 2018 141 South
- Hunua 4 Watermain 2010 2020 376 Central
- nine other smaller projects 2015 2020 268 Regional
New ATAP projects        
- Rapid transit (busway, rail & light rail)     8,400 Regional
- Strategic & local roads     3,800 Regional
- Greenfield transport infratsructure     1,300 Regional
- Safety programs     900 Regional
- Walking, cycling, local projects     900 Regional
- Bus & ferry improvements     700 Regional
- Optimisation & technology     700 Regional
Akl University developments 2014 2024 860 Downtown
- Bldg 507, Medicine & Health 2017 2019 140 Newmarket
Unitec mixed KiwiBuild housing (3000 units) 2018 2023 1,200 Central
Unitec campus consolidation, part 1 2017 ?? 250 Central
Unitec site development, subsequent ?? 2025 1,000 Central
Light rail to Westgate 2019 2029 2,300 Central & West
Westgate Urban Development [completed] 2013 2016   West
Puhoi-Wellsford m/way extn 2016 2020 710 North
Ryman aged care projects 2015 2017 710 various
Long Bay housing/town centre 2015 2022 2,400 North
Massey Univ. campus expansion 2018 2022 120 North
Wynyard Quarter housing 2016 2017 200 Downtown
155-167 Fanshawe St 2017 2019 265 Downtown
46 Albert Street EVEN Hotel     200 Downtown
51 Albert Street 2019 ?? 250 Downtown
Albert Street, 10 level     350 Downtown
33 Broadway, Newmarket   2018 143 Newmarket
96 St Georges Bay Rd   2018 125 Newmarket
74 St Georges Bay Rd   2018 50 Newmarket
Innovation Precinct, Wynyard Qtr   Q2-17 200 Downtown
Fonterra HQ [completed] 2015 Q1-16   Downtown
Fanshawe St development 2016 Q3-17 350 Downtown
Old NZHerald site, Albert Street Q1-16 Q1-19 675 Downtown
Britomart expansion     1,000 Downtown
Middlemore Hospital repairs & extensions ??? ?? 1,600 South
Auckland Airport expansion 2017 2022 2,000 South
SH20A to Airport (completed) Q3-15 Q2-17   South
Auckland Prison, East Facility 2016 2018 270 North
Summerset Monterey Park [completed] Q1-14 Q1-16   West
East-West Link (may be changed or cancelled) 2016 2025 1,850 Industrial
Three Kings housing     750 Central urban
Alexandra Park apartments (stage 1) 2017 2019 350 Central urban
AMETI Q1-18   1,200 South East
Ormiston Town Centre 2015 2022 2,800 South
Pakuranga Town Centre     500 South East
Airport retail expansion (completed) Q1-16 Q1-18   South
St James Suites Q1-16 Q2-18 175 Downtown
DurySouth industrial 2016 ? 620 South
Dury SHA residential 45ha 2016 2022 400 South
Whenuapai Town Centre ? 2026 4,000 West
Auckland Northern Corridor 2016 2021 700 North
The Pacifica Customs St tower 57 levels 2017 2019 300 Downtown
Customs Residential, 50 levels 2017 2019 ~250 Downtown
HNZ Northcote housing 2017 2021 750 North
HNZ Mt Roskill housing 2018 2022 65 Central
HNZ Waterview housing 2018 2022 125 West
HNZ Mangere housing (#3000 HNZ) 2018 2033 1,500 South
HNZ Mangere housing (#3500 KiwiBuild) 2018 2033 2,275 South
HNZ Mangere housing (#3500 market) 2018 2033 2,650 South
HNZ Greys Ave housing 2019 2021 100 Central
Northern Busway, Rosedale, Constellation Drive 2020 2022 100 North
Changda Sunny Heights, Orewa 570 houses 2016 2021 420 North
Metlifecare Botany 160-unit retirement centre 2017 2019 140 South
Whenuapai / Redhills HIF 2017 2021 300 West
Redoubt-Mill Rd upgrade     955 South
Electrify rail to Pukekohe     130 South
3rd rail line Wiri to Westfield     100 South
Northwestern busway     835 West
Grafton Downs civil works 2018 2019 ~100 South
Wesley new town, 5000 homes Q4-16   3,500 South
Kingseat Village subdivision, 500 homes 2018   400 South
Sylvia Park extensions Q1-18   223 Central
Newmarket Shopping Centre Q2-18 Q4-19 790 Newmarket
NZRPG Milford highrise apartments ?? ?? 200 North
North Shore retail 2019   ?? North
Mt Eden prison (MECF 245 beds) Q2-17 Q4-19 150 Central
F&P Heathcare campus Q1-18 Q2-20 125 South
List totals     $64,833 mln

We would be pleased to receive details from readers to update this list and improve its accuracy.

You can find a complete list of Auckland ithsmus projects (including many below $100 mln) at this excellent website.

Also see this.

For the national assessment of the future construction pipeline, this MBIE-commissioned report is the core reference.

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So the policy is to to build 30,000 houses a year and bring in the people to build and live in them? What could possibly go wrong?

This time will be different?

haha yup the new normal

What utter bollocks , there is no steady growth , we are seeing rampant over-pricing and opportunistic behaviour in the construction sector .

A new build is as much as 50% more than the cost in Australia, with no end in sight .

All the signs of a hopelessly overheated housing sector are evident.

What we really need is a good old recession or downturn to get this market back to where it should be .

Boatman, out of curiosity, how do you explain the extremely high house prices of Sydney and Melbourne given new build costs aren't such a driver of high prices? Different factors at play than here in NZ?

Very different to John Keys troubled waters ahead comments with Hosking. No recession at all seems a bit optimistic I think.

I think there are troubled waters ahead in the current state, but if we were to improve some of the structural issues our key industries are facing, we just might get through.