The construction sector is set for a period of sustained long term growth, ending the previous patterns of boom and bust cycles, according to the National Construction Pipeline Report 2018.
"The forecast is for strong long term growth," the report says.
"For the first time in the history of this report the national forecast does not predict a peak during the forecast period.
"Instead the 2018 forecast is for consistent building and construction activity in the next few years with stronger growth expected towards the end of the forecast period."
The report's forecasts include:
- Residential building value expected to hold steady for the next few years before increasing to a forecast high at $26.6 billion in 2013.
- Dwelling consents are expected to increase year-on-year to a forecast high of 43,100 in 2023.
- Non-residential building value is expected to peak at $8.4 billion in 2019.
- Infrastructure is forecast to remain relatively unchanged, increasing marginally to $7.3 billion in 2023.
- Total construction is expected to grow steadily to a forecast high of $41.4 billion in 2023.
"The forecast indicates to the construction sector that it can have confidence in the demand for future building and construction work and can therefore invest effectively to scale up production (via technological development, skills and training, new efficiencies) to produce at high volume in the future, rather than relying on quick fix methods of increasing capacity (bringing in skills from overseas, utilising spare capacity, borrowing resources from construction-related industries) to meet a short term construction boom.
The report offers some especially good news on the housing front, forecasting that new dwelling consents will reach a new peak for the next five years, staying above 31,500 a year between 2017 and 2022 and peaking at 34,500 in 2019 and 2020.
Growth is also expected to be sustained for longer in Auckland than other regions, with growth in other regions expected to peak and begin to decline in 2019/20 while growth in Auckland is expected to remain at peak levels until 2022.
The report also found that the recent growth in average house sizes had plateaued and was starting to decline in some regions.
The report is produced annually by BRANZ, building economic consultancy Pacifecon and the Ministry of Business innovation & Employment.
Here is the full report:
Interest.co.nz is keeping a list of major Auckland construction projects, given that these will add to a nationally-significant value and stress the capacity of the construction industry to recruit for them.
At this stage we plan only to list projects that will have a total cost of about $100 mln, but other smaller projects that have key icon or infrastructure importance may also be included.
This list was last updated on 29 July 2018.
|Intl Convention Centre||Dec-15||2018||700||Downtown|
|Commercial Bay / Precinct||Jun-16||Q4-19||940||Downtown|
|City Rail Link||Nov-15||2021?||3,400||Downtown|
|Park Hyatt 5-star hotel, Viaduct||2016||2019||200||Downtown|
|One Market Square hotel, Viaduct||2018||2020||~200||Downtown|
|NGD Tower, 52-story Albert St bldg||???||???||350||Downtown|
|Sofitel hotel, Commerce St||50||Downtown|
|America's Cup bases||2018||2019||212||Downtwon|
|Waterview Connection [completed]||2013||2017||Inner West|
|One55 Fanshawe Street||2018||2019||100||Downtown|
|Major Watercare projects|
|- Warkworth wastewater network||2018||193||North|
|- Northern Interceptor||2018||538||North|
|- Nth Harbour No.2 Watermain||2018||264||North|
|- Huia Water Treatment plant||2017||2018||185||West|
|- Central stormwater/wastewater upgrade||2016||2028||520||Central|
|- Central Interceptor||2019||2025||950||Central|
|- Mangere plant upgrade||2015||2018||141||South|
|- Hunua 4 Watermain||2010||2020||376||Central|
|- nine other smaller projects||2015||2020||268||Regional|
|New ATAP projects|
|- Rapid transit (busway, rail & light rail)||8,400||Regional|
|- Strategic & local roads||3,800||Regional|
|- Greenfield transport infratsructure||1,300||Regional|
|- Safety programs||900||Regional|
|- Walking, cycling, local projects||900||Regional|
|- Bus & ferry improvements||700||Regional|
|- Optimisation & technology||700||Regional|
|Akl University developments||2014||2024||860||Downtown|
|- Bldg 507, Medicine & Health||2017||2019||140||Newmarket|
|Unitec mixed KiwiBuild housing (3000 units)||2018||2023||1,200||Central|
|Unitec campus consolidation, part 1||2017||??||250||Central|
|Unitec site development, subsequent||??||2025||1,000||Central|
|Light rail to Westgate||2019||2029||2,300||Central & West|
|Westgate Urban Development [completed]||2013||2016||West|
|Puhoi-Wellsford m/way extn||2016||2020||710||North|
|Ryman aged care projects||2015||2017||710||various|
|Long Bay housing/town centre||2015||2022||2,400||North|
|Massey Univ. campus expansion||2018||2022||120||North|
|Wynyard Quarter housing||2016||2017||200||Downtown|
|155-167 Fanshawe St||2017||2019||265||Downtown|
|46 Albert Street EVEN Hotel||200||Downtown|
|51 Albert Street||2019||??||250||Downtown|
|Albert Street, 10 level||350||Downtown|
|33 Broadway, Newmarket||2018||143||Newmarket|
|96 St Georges Bay Rd||2018||125||Newmarket|
|74 St Georges Bay Rd||2018||50||Newmarket|
|Innovation Precinct, Wynyard Qtr||Q2-17||200||Downtown|
|Fonterra HQ [completed]||2015||Q1-16||Downtown|
|Fanshawe St development||2016||Q3-17||350||Downtown|
|Old NZHerald site, Albert Street||Q1-16||Q1-19||675||Downtown|
|Middlemore Hospital repairs & extensions||???||??||1,600||South|
|Auckland Airport expansion||2017||2022||2,000||South|
|SH20A to Airport (completed)||Q3-15||Q2-17||South|
|Auckland Prison, East Facility||2016||2018||270||North|
|Summerset Monterey Park [completed]||Q1-14||Q1-16||West|
|East-West Link (may be changed or cancelled)||2016||2025||1,850||Industrial|
|Three Kings housing||750||Central urban|
|Alexandra Park apartments (stage 1)||2017||2019||350||Central urban|
|Ormiston Town Centre||2015||2022||2,800||South|
|Pakuranga Town Centre||500||South East|
|Airport retail expansion (completed)||Q1-16||Q1-18||South|
|St James Suites||Q1-16||Q2-18||175||Downtown|
|Dury SHA residential 45ha||2016||2022||400||South|
|Whenuapai Town Centre||?||2026||4,000||West|
|Auckland Northern Corridor||2016||2021||700||North|
|The Pacifica Customs St tower 57 levels||2017||2019||300||Downtown|
|Customs Residential, 50 levels||2017||2019||~250||Downtown|
|HNZ Northcote housing||2017||2021||750||North|
|HNZ Mt Roskill housing||2018||2022||65||Central|
|HNZ Waterview housing||2018||2022||125||West|
|HNZ Mangere housing (#3000 HNZ)||2018||2033||1,500||South|
|HNZ Mangere housing (#3500 KiwiBuild)||2018||2033||2,275||South|
|HNZ Mangere housing (#3500 market)||2018||2033||2,650||South|
|HNZ Greys Ave housing||2019||2021||100||Central|
|Northern Busway, Rosedale, Constellation Drive||2020||2022||100||North|
|Changda Sunny Heights, Orewa 570 houses||2016||2021||420||North|
|Metlifecare Botany 160-unit retirement centre||2017||2019||140||South|
|Whenuapai / Redhills HIF||2017||2021||300||West|
|Redoubt-Mill Rd upgrade||955||South|
|Electrify rail to Pukekohe||130||South|
|3rd rail line Wiri to Westfield||100||South|
|Grafton Downs civil works||2018||2019||~100||South|
|Wesley new town, 5000 homes||Q4-16||3,500||South|
|Kingseat Village subdivision, 500 homes||2018||400||South|
|Sylvia Park extensions||Q1-18||223||Central|
|Newmarket Shopping Centre||Q2-18||Q4-19||790||Newmarket|
|NZRPG Milford highrise apartments||??||??||200||North|
|North Shore retail||2019||??||North|
|Mt Eden prison (MECF 245 beds)||Q2-17||Q4-19||150||Central|
|F&P Heathcare campus||Q1-18||Q2-20||125||South|
We would be pleased to receive details from readers to update this list and improve its accuracy.
You can find a complete list of Auckland ithsmus projects (including many below $100 mln) at this excellent website.
Also see this.
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