There was a slight improvement in the number of homes sold at auction in July compared to a year ago

Photo: Alpha Stock Images - http://alphastockimages.com/

Auckland’s real estate market may be struggling through a sluggish winter, but activity in the region’s auction rooms appears to be holding up reasonably well compared to a year ago.

In the four weeks from 30 June to 28 July this year, interest.co.nz monitored 503 Auckland residential property auctions and published their results on our Residential Auction Results page.

Of those 211 were sold and 292 were not sold, giving an overall sales rate of 42%.

Comparing that to the equivalent four week period a year ago (1-29 July 2017), interest.co.nz monitored 526 auctions (after making a small adjustment to allow for a minor change in the way the data was collected), of which 200 resulted in sales and 326 properties remained unsold.

So although the number of properties going to auction over the four weeks of July this year was down slightly (-4.4%) compared to a year earlier, the number of properties that were sold was up 5.5% and the ratio of auctioned properties that sold increased from 38% to 42%.

That suggests overall activity at Auckland’s mid-winter auctions this year was probably at about the same level as last year, with a small improvement in the number of properties being sold.

The individual results from many of the auctions held around the country, with details of the properties auctioned and the prices achieved on most of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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77 Comments

Regardless of auction numbers, Auckland house prices will gradually slide downwards to 2002 levels in the next 10-20 years. Fasten your seat belts for this bumpy ride if you've mortgaged to the hilt.

I will second your prediction

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15

No government will let that happen. National was open about it as for them housing problem is a good problem (Who cares about average Kiwi) and Labour less said the better. They promised a lot to get in power and did managed but once in power be it Labour or WP (Who cares about the average Kiwi).

Example is their flagship promise to ban foreign buyer. In the heat of the moment (high of being in power) they did introduced the Overseas Investment Amendment Bill but realized later that the NZ economy run on it (Who cares about Average Kiwi) and diluted it but still were afraid so are now trying to delay the already diluted version as much as possible.

Otherwise (Should be highlighted for all Labour Supporters as no media will highlight it as many have vested interest) why will they not continue with the committee stage when taken up on 1st and 2nd August. No discussion at all on 7th, 8th and 9th August and even now is last on the agenda for the next week with the intention, for now to postpone for next month and hopefully will find some excuse to delay further.

If not a priority why so much noise during election time (Understand to get vote) so basically next election anyone who wants change will have to look from Trump in NZ (Like it or not and it is this attitude of political parties that give rise to Trumpism and now with active social media and interaction hard to suppress facts and manipulate).

National supporters will be laughing all the way.

Agree. No update or media news about the overseas amendement bill.

May be Gareth Morgan should have continued and Who knows :)

Its now bumped up the list in the Orders paper for debates on Tuesday 14th

Just wait and watch how it is delayed :)

You will know next week what I mean.

Would this help?
https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-NZ/OrderPaper_20180814/7439b7e818f...
Also in a weekly parliament business report, also on that site, Chris Hipkins said he expects the committee stage to be completed by the end of next week.

Also have a watch of the Parliament TV Videos of the various members of the committee having their say on the bill. It's funny how when a National MP can have their say without a whisper from the Labour side, but when Labour are talking there's non stop childish interjections from the National team.

National Member speaking - https://www.parliament.nz/en/WatchParliament/VideoDetail/201865

Labour Member speaking - https://www.parliament.nz/en/WatchParliament/VideoDetail/201859

If you didn't realise you were watching a Parliamentary video you'd be mistaken for thinking the audio was taken from the local pub on a Friday night. That could be why it's taking so long.

Good find, I wasnt aware they existed.
The Nats can carry on and wear funny hats if they like but the goverment have a majority and that is what matters at the end.

Positivelywallstreet just wait and see how media and powerfull lobbies now come in defence of foreign buyer.

From now on till the law is passed will see in media how forign buyers are important to NZ - National party and real estate lobies besides powerfull so called investors will be all out to further dilute the bill as they too know that cannot stop it.

Labour can fall for it but Winston Peter who is a seasoned politicans should be able to see through unless he too has change of......

Wait and watch the drama

Stuart786786 it will not start but has already started. Media highlighting the importance of foreign speculators sorry investor

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/foreign-investors-workers-lo...

First of the many and more to follow :)

Game is on.

Judging by your broken English i'd say you're against the policy. You Pokemon Botherers are an interesting crowd.

Truth hurts :)

They may have left their run a bit late, committee is scheduled to finish this week and that leaves the third reading, a matter of form.
The nats could try doing gymnastics on the chamber floor this week...it may help their case.

So on the agenda should be mentioned : comittee stage continue and 3rd reading in parliment as have been done on many other amendement bill.

The CoL has dug itself in donkey-deep with its proposed foreign buyers ban.

It knows if the Bill becomes law, it faces a further plummeting of business confidence.......

Enough said.

TTP

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13

Are you saying the ban will have an impact on the market?

Thought there was negligent impact due to low volumes..

Foreign Buyers are only 3%, how on earth could this possibly have an impact? Also what is the correlation between foreigners buying houses in NZ and business confidence?

Business people see the Foreign Buyer Ban as evidence of government intervention (meddling!) in the marketplace - which they deplore.....

It hardly matters whether foreign buyers represent 3% of house sales or 93% of house sales. It's the nature of what the government is getting up to that businesses dislike.

Businesses much prefer "hands-off" governments. Surprise, surprise!

TTP

But surely the hands off approach hasn't worked, hence the huge imbalance. .

Govt do change things, after all the govts job was to implement the policys that gets them elected. Its called...democracy.

Clear mandate to shut down domestic and overseas speculation in land and housing. If its not to your liking vote with your feet. I hear the haze in Beijing is nice this time of year?

Foreign Buyers are only 3%, how on earth could this possibly have an impact?

Even if it's 3%, they could push price beyond what's possible intrinsically.. say some equity/credit-rich NZ property bulls in an auction.. doing bids of +5k. A cash-rich foreign investor comes up doing bids of +20k. Prices of that area will have a big impcat for sure..

Hi TTP,

perfect conclusion my friend, i second that opinion. .... don't expect many here to understand the consequences while looking through the shot sighted residential property lense !!

Thanks for that, Eco Bird.

Offers of friendship always welcome. (I don't have too many in this pit.)

TTP

any wonder? That happens when you mix outside your echo chamber.

It is rumoured that there are actual businesses making things as opposed to "businesses" speculating in property. Meanwhil banning foreign buyers looks to upset these gamblers at most.

DGZ and Richard1965
Not so much as "No government will allow that", but rather the "Reserve Bank will be looking to maintaining some stability in house prices" through controlling OCR and LVRs.

The government as such has no similar direct influence on house prices. There has been much (populist) mention of the Government's "foreign buyer" ban cooling the market, but Statistics NZ has reported that "foreign buyers" have only account for approximately 3% of all buyers - and that includes long term resident immigrants (i.e. new NZers) who have sought neither permanent residency nor citizenship. The absence of activity by property investors (RBNZ figures show a decline of 35+%) is probably of far greater significance on prices than any "foreign buyer" ban. As for other government actions which could affect property prices; despite Winston's rhetoric immigration levels remain historically high and KiwiBuild homes are very slow coming on stream and are currently likely to be at rate less than that required by immigration and natural population increase. So no, the Government is and is not likely to have significant influence on house prices.

RBNZ governor Adrian Orr has recently said that he sees future house prices rising 2 to 3% pa.
House price stability is in the interest of both a stable economy and for social reasons (e.g. FHB affordability).

This winter was always going to be telling on the Auckland market and that market has faired pretty well during the traditionally cool winter sales period and these auction result arguably tend to suggest this. There may be even some minor upside in the Auckland market with the spring. So, while Adrian Orr may have been putting a little bit of a positive spin on future price trends, if I was currently a property investor I would be giving his comments some weight.

No government interfer is correct but government do come out with policy to suit their citizen and foreign ban is one of the flagship policy /promise of the current government be it Labour, WP or the Greens and one of the reason of being in power.

So let the government impliment the promised policy in the right spirit /intent and let the market takes it own course.

Hi Richard
Oh, so we now believe election promises.

Agree with Richard1965.

Let the government impliment the policy that was promised and let the market take its own course. If the policy has no effect than at least the perception that foreigners are one of the reason for the crisis will be cleared and if it does effect than will be an answere to those who think that foreign buyer has no role in this crisis.

For that it is important to impliment it first and let other agencies like reserve bank, does its role and no one is asking government to interfer but defenitely put policy in place that suits NZ and was as promised.

Also if the policy plays a role in controlling the situation, politically also Labour will have an uper hand as they are the one who said and beleive that the data is much higher and was highlighted by Labour 2 years back but had backed out for fear of being termed as racist (Also election was approaching)

DP

Regardless of auction numbers, governments will continue to print money and the purchasing power of fiat currency will decrease at a slow and steady rate. Fasten your seat belts for this ride if you don't hold any shares or property.

so inflation? or deflation? personally deflation and both shares that have been gutted of value and are over-priced and property will take a pasteing.

That's funny DGZ!! I disagree with your prediction strongly of course, if you are talking about nominal prices. Is it April fools, hahaha?

I think Double-GZ has had a "personality transplant" - what happened to the "forever ongoing financial nirvana" of owning property in the leafy, tree lined streets of Auckland's double grammar zone ?

Retired-Poppy has hijacked DGZ's name and password.....

TTP (-;

Every now and again DGZ becomes an absurdist.

I almost spilt my coffee, DGZ has moved away from the dark side, the force is strong in this one!

I think it should read that the farce is strong in this one. DGZ is throwing out the bait to see how many DGM’s he can suck in.

Ex Expat, Zachary, I second that. Today, I guess he's a little needy for attention.

Retired Poppy is Gordon.

Ha-ha-ha! I guess the many commentators who see past your facade could be named Gordon - aye :)

Greg Ninness,

The sold and unsold numbers given in the article for 2018 and 2017 are the same numbers. The 2018 numbers add up to the total auction number for the year, so the 2017 numbers need to be corrected.

Thanks for the short article. I suspect that a prior comment of mine instigated this!

Well spotted Yankiwi. Something not correct here. "These numbers do not compute."

Yankiwi, I think you're right it does all look a little but too similar. Good to see everyone jumping on the comments section before reading the article.

Well spotted Yankiwi. The sold and unsold numbers were repeated , but the percentages were correct. I have corrected the sold and unsold numbers for 2017. Cheers.

Ok, so now that the winter trough is behind us and Spring is around the corner, the Auckland housing market has proved to be more than just resilient. ( the reported auction numbers above is just another indication).

Between 2013 and 2016, Auckland prices appreciated by about 70% min and 90% max depending on type and location.

The were so many factors to drive Prices into a correction, including the change of Gov, however that did not happen after two long years of noise around the peak price of the market in March 2017.

All, and I mean ALL, market fundamentals and drivers have got worse since 2016 ... supply is short, demand is higher and building is struggling to cope and the emperors are still parading unashamedly butt naked !!

Auckland ( and Hamilton) prices have absorbed the shock and the correction is almost over - back to a stable 2 - 5% rise pa until we hit the next property boom cycle.

So for those who missed that boat ( for any reason) it is now time to seriously reflect on buying a property, especially after what Mr. Orr said last week....

REINZ July numbers will come out next week and they surely will indicate a rising trend from last year - even if they were the same as 2017, then it is still a positive sign of a stable market.

Sorry DGMs, we are now certain that there is No Crash, No market price shocks or gradual decline, and hope that you have learned that markets do not reverse by wishful thinking, few articles, or stupid impractical promises by noobs at the helm.

Everyone, including RBNZ, now agrees that the market will steadily rise with 2-3% pa - I say it will be 3% after correction for inflation.

You can curse the darkness as much as you like, but better light a candle and move on.

So with CPI around 1~2% Auckland should appreciate at 4~5%? got to wonder where the financing will come from.

There is No Shortage of money to lend, and the banks have never been in better shape - lending criteria has not changed, and loan serviceability is improving with current low IRs lasting another 2 years and better wages for most earners ( which is the most important factor for banks now) ... so 5% could be very realistic.

Some people measure buying power ( and hence property price resilience) according to the earning of a small number of buyers ( ~ 10-15%) who couldn't easily buy at current prices and suffer the most from price appreciation but that will not stop sales and life goes On.

Anyone wants to believe the doomsday story of increasing personal and national debt and quoting articles and stats from the whole universe to find any correlation ... etc will miss out again and only blame himself later.

no crash so far, you cannot look at history and project it forward.

Why?

Why not?

I'll use really simple words as you seem to have problems understanding really simple ideas - things change. Now I hope I haven't words outside your vocabulary.

Here are few words for yours, ...Yeah right, Watch and Learn !! ..

maybe you will then transform into a GoodRobot , or a SmatRobot ... or something ... :)

And what makes you think you are so smart. As has been pointed out before just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't happen. I think whatever is coming for New Zealand has only just started.

Perhaps you should watch and learn - but is suspect that is asking to much. How about actually presenting an actual rebuttal argument.

BadRotots are stuck with old programs, and cannot understand human arguments ... so waste of time teaching an old outdated robot new tricks :)

And you're a bird so what would you know, (just following our logic). So if you cant "win" an argument with your illogical reasoning you resort to insulting the person - real classy - not.

I disagree,

the correction hasnt even started

sales numbers are stuck at last years lows, prices have regressed marginally and the foreign buyer ban isnt even in place yet.

Inventories are still high and I think you will find that finance is harder to come by and thats why the lions are fighting for the ever decreasing watering hole by pushing mortgage rates lower.

There is no shortage of houses for sale in Auckland and it looks like demand remains low by the clearance rates remaining so dismal

the real squeeze is yet to come IMO

Im predicting a 20% drop in auckland prices by the time this is over

By the time this is over .... when exactly will it be over ?
it didn't go down by 20% in the thick of the GFC, why should it now?

Sorry, Your prediction doesn't hold any water.

When will it be over.. that depends if the govt & Reserve Bank decide to thrash and wail ineffectively while they slowly peel the plaster off, or go for one quick painful pull. My money is thrash and wail and kick the can a couple meters down the road.. then they'll wind up for a second kick and trip over themselves.

there won't be any peeling , the RBNZ will tread water until these noobs are gone by 2020, then the economy will correct itself.

Again, it didn't happen in the past, and it won't happen in future as most hopefuls here would like to ... unfortunately, most do not , or chose not, to realise the unintended consequences of fiddling with the housing market.

Did the tarot cards tell you this, or was it a reading of the tea leaves (helped by a large shot of your internal bias)?

Eco Bird, here's one of the many risky 10% that owe 40% of the debt; https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/35258/?ref=nzhhome

It's cherubs like this and yourself that ring alarm bells. The more you comment, the more real it is.

Yeah, i saw it the other night. Teen turns $xx to $Xmillion of debt with help from bank of Mum and Dad.

Meanwhile, checking what loans are available to invest in on Harmoney this morning.. and so muh trash. Homeowners for 5 years in Rolleston borrowing another $13k to top up the other $63k they borrowed 7 months ago to consolidate debt. But somehow they get an A1 credit grade so only paying 6.99%. Or a couple borrowing $35k to consolidate debt after owning an Auckland property for 20 years. They should be mortgage free by now and rolling in dough.

NZ economy is very fragile atm, hence why I'm investing my money overseas before the bottom drops out of the dollar.

Have you sold up DGZ, if so wise move. Yes we seem to have slipped of the global property investment radar, check out this latest report from Knight Frank in regards to hot to trot property.

https://content.knightfrank.com/research/323/documents/en/prime-global-c...

No Auckland or Wellington, but, 4 Aust cities (syd, mel, bris, perth) in top world 20 with syd and mel top 10. Of the ten world cities that were biggest risers over the year, Paris, Berlin, Seoul, Cape Town all had over ten percent gains for the year. Nice.

.

This property has sold within two weeks of being on the market. It has a CV of $8,800,000. I bet it went for less than $1M in this tanking market. https://www.bayleys.co.nz/1751563

That's one heck of a property

DGZ, repeated regurgitation of the Arney Road sale is only robbing yourself of nuggets to use after the ban takes effect ;-) It's a bit self defeating don't you think?

Thumbs up to a vendor who knew the golden days have been had. Thumbs down to the buyer who's just been had.

Do you recall this REINZ report?; https://www.interest.co.nz/property/95114/reinz-report-says-sales-millio...

In short, sales of million dollar plus properties in Auckland is now declining.

Just a note on the ~3% of transfers going to foreign buyers: it's worth keeping in mind that this is 3% of property transfers, not 3% of market sales. The same report mentions about 32,000 transfers in the March quarter compared to around 19,000 sales (REINZ). Adjusting for around 15% non-reinz sales (a guess) then there were around 21,000 sales in NZ that quarter (this ignores timing issues between sales date and transfer date). So if you think the 3% are more likely to be true sales than the 97%, then the actual % of true sales is likely to be higher. The non-true sales captured in the transfers data are things like transfers of a house into a trust/company, divorces, and gifting. My guess is that this is more likely to be happening in the 97%, but not sure.

The other things is that if the 3% represent those with higher willingness to pay (relative to NZers), then they could still have a significant impact on prices (only slightly relevant: you can imagine one person with a high willingness to pay going to a bunch of auctions and bidding up the price, but only 'winning' 3%).

Not sure which way it falls in the end, but they're just some thoughts.

M

Can people stop regurgitating that stupid 3% figure? That was merely named individuals, and did not account for company or trust structures, or locally registered entities controlled from offshore. ASB estimated the (admittedly wide) range of 10-18% - a big difference. That is the problem that the government was trying to tackle - not sure what their appetite is now though.

..you don't get it do you?

Maybe...maybe not. The business community can Far Goff if they think they can hold a gun to the government's head to maintain the foreign money/immigration ponzi.