Harcourts' sales and average selling prices up compared to last year

Property

Harcourts had a firm start to summer, with sales numbers in October up compared to a year ago although prices eased back in Auckland

19th Nov 18, 1:11pm by Greg Ninness

The country's largest real estate agency made a solid start to the summer selling season, with sales volumes and average selling prices both up in October compared to last year.

Harcourts sold 1895 residential properties throughout the country in October, up 12.2% compared to October last year, while the average selling price of $605,389 in October was up 3.2% compared to a year ago.

New listings were steady, with 2511 properties signed up in October, down 2% compared to October last year, while total inventory available for sale was down 1.2% at 6521.

The most buoyant market was Christchurch, where October's sales were up 17.4% compared to a year ago while the average selling price of $566,466 was up 10.3%.

In the lower North Island, including Hawkes Bay, Taranaki and Wellington, sales were up 4.7% compared to October last year and the average selling price was up 11%.

However although sales volumes were stronger in Auckland, up 7.3% compared to a year ago, prices were weaker.

Harcourts' average Auckland selling price in October was $942,483, which was down 2.2% compared to October last year and down $75,068 (-7.3%) compared to September this year.

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65 Comments

by alittle | 19th Nov 18, 1:31pm 1542587464

Again this data is for October.

November data will be important.

by tothepoint - d… | 19th Nov 18, 1:32pm 1542587557

Housing market remains steady.

But there are increasing signs that activity will be more buoyant this summer compared with last summer.

TTP

by Zombie ponzi | 19th Nov 18, 1:36pm 1542587794

Each to their own interpretation.

The data for Auckland suggests to me the market is sinking.

Monthly and annual price falls before the foreign buyer ban was even in place.

by Fritz | 19th Nov 18, 4:40pm 1542598801

yes Auckland does not look good.

by bw | 19th Nov 18, 1:38pm 1542587908

Quite so.
What will the Tauranga stats. read when Phil Rudd's place; that hasn't been on the market for 10? years, goes for $8mio (or whatever!)? "Volume up; Average price up". That's what happens when vendors higher up the tree realise, it's time to sell ( for whatever reason).

by richard1965 | 19th Nov 18, 2:08pm 1542589728

Do not know about the NZ but can definitely confirm that house price in Pakuranga, Pakuranga Hieghts, Bucklands beach, Howick and nearby area has fallen down by more than 10% to 15 %.

Most houses are going 10% to 15% below RV. Do not believe check any property listed and call the agent and will be more than eager to accept 10% below RV (10% below is the norm) and many property between 10% to 20% (Specially if the auction has failed)

Above is the rule with few exception.

by Yvil | 19th Nov 18, 4:18pm 1542597509

Hi Richard,
Can you provide any data to support your opinion?
Thanks

by HouseHunter | 20th Nov 18, 8:29am 1542655751

Examples please?
I'm looking in those areas and most of the good houses are selling at CV or above. A few missed opportunities in Winter but in general vendors are listing asking prices at 10-20% above CV, then drop to around CV. 119C Moore Street, Howick sold for 50k above CV. Only the falling apart/dated house are selling for less.

Quick search on Oneroof (latest results in order):
2-13 De Quincey Terrace - sold for $1.17m, cv is $810k (13 Nov 2018)
20 Montgomery Crescent, Cockle Bay - sold for $1.17m, cv is $1.1m (13 Nov 2018)
7 Vida Place, Howick - sold for 900k, cv is 910k (6 Nov 2018)
6 Medina Place, Half Moon Bay - sold for 920k, cv is 885k (30 Oct 2018)
2 Loloma Drive, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.9m, cv is $1.25 (crazy) (20 Oct 2018)
2/7 Anna Watson Road, Half Moon Bay - sold for $85.k, cv is $800k (16 Oct 2018)
36 Glennandrew Drive, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.4m, cv is $1.225m (15 Oct 2018)
4 Maugham Drive, Bucklands Beach - sold for $1.45m, same as cv (1 Oct 2018)
20 Waller Avenue, Bucklands Beach - sold for $1.557m, cv is $1.55m (28 Sep 2018)
8 Indus Place, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.2 mil, same as cv (27 Sep 2018)
47A Andrew Road, Howick - sold for $838k, cv is $860k (18 Sep 2018)
2/7 Proteus Place, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.1m, cv is $1.09m (19 Sep 2018)
11 Fiesta Drive, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.218m, cv is $1.175m (21 Sep 2018)

Last night at Auction, one house in Half Moon Bay sold for around 200k above CV, another in Howick was passed in with last bid 50k above cv.

So I don't know but I don't see the price drops that you refer to.

by Malarkey | 19th Nov 18, 6:32pm 1542605524

All bubbles eventually burst. It's what they do. The longer the bubble stays inflated and the bigger it gets, the louder and messier the pop. The primary concern in this case is NZ's almost complete absence of a safety net. You think dairy and/or tourism will save the Kiwi economy from the inevitable collapse of the residential property bubble? Good luck with that. No, seriously, I really hope the few tens of billions earned from those activities can somehow prop it all up.

by RickStrauss | 19th Nov 18, 1:33pm 1542587615

However although sales volumes were stronger in Auckland, up 7.3% compared to a year ago, prices were weaker. Harcourts' average Auckland selling price in October was $942,483, which was down 2.2% compared to October last year and down $75,068 (-7.3%) compared to September this year.

Interesting, that's despite the run up to the FBB.

How very "bouyant".

by NoFax | 19th Nov 18, 1:37pm 1542587831

I was about to say the only market I care about is Auckland and add that quote. Things are not looking good in AK.

by ShoreThing | 19th Nov 18, 1:43pm 1542588193

I have been monitoring property listings on one of the main auction websites in NZ, and I have noticed that the number of properties "For sale by Auction" is consistently dropping, and the number of properties listed as "Asking price" or "Enquiries above" is increasing.

I'd say that with the exceptionally low auction clearance rates we have seen in the Auckland for the last period, vendors are having to adapt to a changing market and start negotiating with buyers a bit more. I think this is reflected in the increased sales numbers and lower prices as a result.

by Yvil | 19th Nov 18, 4:20pm 1542597639

Indeed, auctions are great when there are several buyers outbidding each other but they are dreadful when there are few buyers

by ShoreThing | 19th Nov 18, 9:06pm 1542614777

Edit - tried to post a table, formatting didn't like it.

by theglc | 19th Nov 18, 1:46pm 1542588413

A lot of differing data for Auckland on Octobers results.

Overall
listings clearly up this October
Sales slightly up on last October but still very low compared to previous years
Prices, cant really see the true data here with some doing median and some averages but definitely weakening

November is looking quite weak on the auction clearances, and given the high volumes for sale you might see that feeling of "buoyancy" turn to a sinking feeling

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 19th Nov 18, 1:59pm 1542589171

Any one noticing the listings dropping off in west Auckland? Wonder if they are selling or vendors pulling them off....

by Fritz | 19th Nov 18, 5:01pm 1542600093

I reckon tonnes of places are getting pulled off the market.
I'm looking for a new property to rent in the eastern suburbs, 3 of the 6 properties I have viewed were for sale but were taken off the market. A couple of the agents were very open to me in saying how dead the market is. One even said something along the lines of it going to be flat for quite a while. Don't think I've ever heard anything so bearish from an agent before,,,,

by K.W. | 19th Nov 18, 6:41pm 1542606107

Just be careful, the vendor is likely to lock a tenant into a 12 month lease, and then put the property back on the market, knowing that they then have 12 months to try and sell it before its empty again.

by Pragmatist | 19th Nov 18, 6:56pm 1542606983

Wouldn't the remaining period of the 12 month lease put off a lot of prospective buyers? Ie, most of the owner occupier types?

by ShoreThing | 19th Nov 18, 9:11pm 1542615104

The buyers can require vacant possession, tenants will get 6 weeks notice to move out I believe.

by Pragmatist | 19th Nov 18, 11:24pm 1542623065

Nope, fixed term is just that. New owner can't kick the tenant out till the agreement is up.

https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/ending-a-tenancy/change-of-landlord-or-tena…

Fixed-term tenancy
A landlord or tenant can’t give notice to end a fixed-term tenancy early. So if the property being sold is rented for a fixed-term, the property must be sold with the tenancy and tenants in place. The buyer will then become the new landlord for the rest of the fixed-term.

by frazz | 20th Nov 18, 7:50am 1542653458

Hopefully you are not a landlord

by ShoreThing | 19th Nov 18, 9:14pm 1542615290

Hi PP2F, I've only been monitoring one of our larger auction sites for a few weeks but my results show a fairly steady amount of listings in Waitakere City. Here is a breakdown of the listings by sale type, hopefully the formatting isn't too awful:

record_date | auctions | enquiries | tender | deadline_sale | asking_prices | price_by_negotiation | total
-------------+----------+-----------+--------+---------------+---------------+----------------------+-------
2018-11-03 | 134 | 37 | 10 | 25 | 437 | 389 | 1032
2018-11-06 | 131 | 30 | 10 | 31 | 453 | 396 | 1051
2018-11-07 | 142 | 32 | 10 | 30 | 455 | 400 | 1069
2018-11-08 | 152 | 32 | 10 | 32 | 462 | 403 | 1091
2018-11-09 | 141 | 28 | 10 | 32 | 461 | 403 | 1075
2018-11-10 | 140 | 28 | 10 | 32 | 463 | 398 | 1071
2018-11-11 | 139 | 29 | 10 | 32 | 465 | 398 | 1073
2018-11-12 | 132 | 29 | 10 | 29 | 470 | 399 | 1069
2018-11-13 | 135 | 30 | 10 | 27 | 471 | 395 | 1068
2018-11-14 | 135 | 29 | 10 | 29 | 473 | 398 | 1074
2018-11-15 | 141 | 29 | 12 | 28 | 481 | 398 | 1089
2018-11-16 | 129 | 28 | 10 | 26 | 494 | 391 | 1078
2018-11-17 | 127 | 28 | 10 | 23 | 500 | 387 | 1075
2018-11-18 | 126 | 28 | 10 | 23 | 499 | 386 | 1072
2018-11-19 | 121 | 27 | 10 | 22 | 508 | 396 | 1084

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 20th Nov 18, 6:51am 1542649880

Thank you, looking through the listings, looks like some are readvertised.. not sure if agents are doing it intentionally to get buyers attention or listing has just expired..

by Pragmatist | 20th Nov 18, 7:00am 1542650410

Obvious trend away from "we'll stick it on the market without a price and see what the next fool will give us" to selling with a price. Next step is to adjust the price down to meet the market.

by ShoreThing | 20th Nov 18, 8:01am 1542654075

Agree, and I've been able to watch properties go from listed as "For sale by Auction" at a certain date, to "Price by Negotiation" after that date, to "Asking Price" a week later. Certainly tells a story, as well as the properties that then decrease their asking price by $100,000 a week after listing their asking price.

by Chairman Moa | 19th Nov 18, 2:09pm 1542589773

Just remember when the Titanic went down, the bow of the ship actually bopping up and down a few times before the final decent into the bottom of the Atlantic. This October data could be one of those movements before the final journey!

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 19th Nov 18, 2:15pm 1542590142

Hopefully bhsl has a life jacket, wouldn't want to lose a friend

by taimaiakka0 | 19th Nov 18, 2:25pm 1542590754

Well to make money - one should not try to predict the market but read the market and the trend in the current house market in NZ is negative and is just he beginning.

Will not be surprised to see house going as low as 30% below RV in near future, if not more (As it happen during boom that were going 30% and more above the RV).

Properties with RV of a 1000000 to 1050000 are going at his stage between Mid 800s to early 900s and is not one off but all across with some exception and early next year will be near around 800s, if the market continues the way it is now and see no reason to change.

Anyone who can hold the investment should hold for few years or if does not have holding capacity could sell and get out as soon as to avoid lose, if lucky or to minimize the lose.

by Averageman | 19th Nov 18, 2:41pm 1542591673

And people think its silly to argue your rating valuation down....

by unaha-closp | 19th Nov 18, 4:29pm 1542598164

How about?
Sell - Auckland/Queenstown
Hold - other NZ
Auckland/Queenstown have high cost structures and therefore higher risk.

by frazz | 20th Nov 18, 7:51am 1542653493

TTP is leader of the band and requesting the Waltz

by NorthernLights | 19th Nov 18, 2:20pm 1542590450

2% down Auckland is hardly a catastrophe
We live in hope of a sensible correction but far from that yet
Typical stubborn Auckland market
Low interest rates helping to prop up the Ponzi built on debt

by tothepoint - d… | 19th Nov 18, 2:24pm 1542590658

Hi Chairman Moa,

Just remember that before a rocket launches, the launch platform may sway a little - before the rocket blasts into intergalactic travel......

TTP (-;

by PropertyPrices2Fall | 19th Nov 18, 2:24pm 1542590683

And you still read it.

Not a person of your words, eh..

by Chairman Moa | 19th Nov 18, 2:26pm 1542590762

And when the rocker ran out of fuel???? I can't go on forever unless it's going towards the sun!

by tothepoint - d… | 19th Nov 18, 2:31pm 1542591116

Hi Chairman Moa,

"And when the rocker ran out of fuel????"

I'm sure an old rocker like you will never run out of fuel!

Dance on my friend.

TTP (-;

by Chairman Moa | 19th Nov 18, 2:42pm 1542591728

LOL, will you put money on my g string if I dance you for you? Buying properties low and sell them high wouldn't be an issue with money.. Love you long time!

by Trapped Millennial | 19th Nov 18, 3:00pm 1542592838

Love to see some data on how far the regions lag behind Auckland. If AK starts falling, how long until the other centres start?

by Yvil | 19th Nov 18, 4:24pm 1542597868

Looking at past cycles, roughly 18 months

by THE MAN 2 | 19th Nov 18, 3:08pm 1542593337

ChCh is the shining light just as The Man has stated.
Sales and prices well up and this will continue.
The Man knows the ChCh property market and what he doesn’t know is not worth knowing.
ChCh is still growing and will become the city
Of choice for many going forward.

by guwop | 19th Nov 18, 4:24pm 1542597863

The Tron will bypass ChCh as NZ's #3 city so fast it ain't even funny.

by Yvil | 19th Nov 18, 4:25pm 1542597956

What's the "Tron" ?

by guwop | 19th Nov 18, 4:29pm 1542598173

The opposite of that snowbird mecca TGA.

by Zachary Smith | 19th Nov 18, 4:56pm 1542599776

Hamilton

by ngakonui gold | 20th Nov 18, 10:34am 1542663283

Been living in Hamilton for over 30 years.Never heard it called the tron,it's a publicity stunt by the media which has never and will never take off.

by PocketAces | 19th Nov 18, 5:02pm 1542600121

HamilTRON city of the future

by Pragmatist | 19th Nov 18, 6:52pm 1542606745

Chlamydia capital of NZ.. or did Whangarei wrestle that one away this year?

by guwop | 19th Nov 18, 8:12pm 1542611540

Yeah that title has moved up north. So the next boom will happen up Northland as STD's are a sign of a young and active generation. And a reason why places like bible-belt Tauranga have clearly peaked.

by ngakonui gold | 20th Nov 18, 10:35am 1542663341

As long as u don't need a bus.

by frazz | 20th Nov 18, 7:52am 1542653552

That question is on the NZ citizen test..??

by THE MAN 2 | 19th Nov 18, 4:44pm 1542599076

ChCh is Nz’s no. 1 city for opportunity and liveability in the future!

Yes I am biased but I have travelled a lot and there aren’t many other cities around the world that offer the
liveability That ChCh offers!
Housing is still very affordable compared to Auckland and Australia’s cities.

by guwop | 19th Nov 18, 4:48pm 1542599325

I have travelled a lot too and I disagree about ChCh (Nice people out there though) There's way more economic opportunity in the Golden Triangle. Palmy being overrated as well.

by Chairman Moa | 19th Nov 18, 5:54pm 1542603261

ChCh is a bit more livable now that the skinheads have moved south.

by theglc | 20th Nov 18, 8:52am 1542657157

But Auckland won the NPC by thrashing Canterbury in the final.... just saying

by tothepoint - d… | 19th Nov 18, 4:29pm 1542598167

Palmy North looks a top prospect......

“Palmy - the Ponsonby of the Manawatu”

Get in while house prices are cheap!

TTP

by Chairman Moa | 19th Nov 18, 4:58pm 1542599899

Have they launched that rocket in Tiakitahuna?

by Nic Johnson | 19th Nov 18, 5:16pm 1542600992

Palmerston North - A snapshot of a property crash about to hit New Zealand. (Data recorded from Trademe/Corelogic/QV on 11th October) - Are you trying to help those that are 'flipping out' about the market TTP?

'I have just looked at the 175 Listings on Trademe for Palmerston North and uncovered the following:

45 Listings are New Builds or Plots, most that have been built will have been financed for top of market prices. (25.6% of the market)
3 Listings were bought in 2018 and are already back on the market (1.7%)
11 Listings were purchased in 2017 (6.2%)
25 Listings were purchased in 2016 (14.3%)
7 Listings were purchased in 2015 (4%)
8 Listings were purchased in 2014
7 Listings were purchased in 2013
7 Listings were purchased in 2012
8 Listings were purchased in 2010/11
22 Listings were purchased between 2000-2009
6 Listings were purchased between 1990 -1999
5 Listings were purchased pre 1990

There is no data on either Tradme or QV for 21 listings. (12%)
If anyone needs any help working out how exposed Palmerston North is following the speculation in the market then please call the helpline 0800 WHAT A BLOODY PICKLE.

by frazz | 20th Nov 18, 8:11am 1542654705

Maybe get out of little room an go visit the place Nic. Train hub springs to mind....

by K.W. | 19th Nov 18, 6:46pm 1542606393

Listing numbers were very low over Oct in Chch so not much to choose from - but now they are at record levels. Way past last years total listing high.
What will be interesting to watch is the property market in Avonhead/Ilam/Riccarton which has really sprung into life in Nov (as foreign students go home) but unlike past years, there will be no incoming foreign students able to buy them. This will be the epicentre of the Chch bust.

by Nic Johnson | 19th Nov 18, 4:58pm 1542599921

It appears that spruiking the market is fine but offering any type of data to suggest a bubble is not.

Sorry Yvil but our conversation about first home buyers being loaded with a $1,000,000,000 a month of debt .with reference to ireland v New Zealand from DFA.....You're response of 'to infinity and beyond' and my wikipedia post about bubbles and how NZ is classified as currently being in a 'bubble' have all unfortunately ended up on the editors floor!

by THE MAN 2 | 19th Nov 18, 6:42pm 1542606135

Ch.Ch. Has always been a great city for as long as I can remember.
Yes there has been the earthquakes, and everyone suffered to differing degrees.
Many have become extremely wealthy from it .
Many of the people that came in for the rebuild have now stayed on and are in love with the place.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion obviously, but reality is that ChCh for a major city is still the best opportunity in NZ for a great affordable lifestyle!
People that haven’t left Auckland have blinkers on if they beleive that Auckland gives a better lifestyle than ChCh.

by tothepoint - d… | 20th Nov 18, 6:47am 1542649650

I say go for Palmerston North!

No earthquakes, great health/education/sports facilities - and inexpensive housing (though the latter may change).

Buy in Palmy - while the going is good!

TTP

by frazz | 20th Nov 18, 7:55am 1542653708

Murder capital of NZ The MAN..

by HouseHunter | 20th Nov 18, 8:10am 1542654607