Harcourts had a firm start to summer, with sales numbers in October up compared to a year ago although prices eased back in Auckland

Harcourts had a firm start to summer, with sales numbers in October up compared to a year ago although prices eased back in Auckland

The country's largest real estate agency made a solid start to the summer selling season, with sales volumes and average selling prices both up in October compared to last year.

Harcourts sold 1895 residential properties throughout the country in October, up 12.2% compared to October last year, while the average selling price of $605,389 in October was up 3.2% compared to a year ago.

New listings were steady, with 2511 properties signed up in October, down 2% compared to October last year, while total inventory available for sale was down 1.2% at 6521.

The most buoyant market was Christchurch, where October's sales were up 17.4% compared to a year ago while the average selling price of $566,466 was up 10.3%.

In the lower North Island, including Hawkes Bay, Taranaki and Wellington, sales were up 4.7% compared to October last year and the average selling price was up 11%.

However although sales volumes were stronger in Auckland, up 7.3% compared to a year ago, prices were weaker.

Harcourts' average Auckland selling price in October was $942,483, which was down 2.2% compared to October last year and down $75,068 (-7.3%) compared to September this year.

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65 Comments

10
up

Again this data is for October.

November data will be important.

Housing market remains steady.

But there are increasing signs that activity will be more buoyant this summer compared with last summer.

TTP

16
up

Each to their own interpretation.

The data for Auckland suggests to me the market is sinking.

Monthly and annual price falls before the foreign buyer ban was even in place.

yes Auckland does not look good.

Quite so.
What will the Tauranga stats. read when Phil Rudd's place; that hasn't been on the market for 10? years, goes for $8mio (or whatever!)? "Volume up; Average price up". That's what happens when vendors higher up the tree realise, it's time to sell ( for whatever reason).

Do not know about the NZ but can definitely confirm that house price in Pakuranga, Pakuranga Hieghts, Bucklands beach, Howick and nearby area has fallen down by more than 10% to 15 %.

Most houses are going 10% to 15% below RV. Do not believe check any property listed and call the agent and will be more than eager to accept 10% below RV (10% below is the norm) and many property between 10% to 20% (Specially if the auction has failed)

Above is the rule with few exception.

Hi Richard,
Can you provide any data to support your opinion?
Thanks

Examples please?
I'm looking in those areas and most of the good houses are selling at CV or above. A few missed opportunities in Winter but in general vendors are listing asking prices at 10-20% above CV, then drop to around CV. 119C Moore Street, Howick sold for 50k above CV. Only the falling apart/dated house are selling for less.

Quick search on Oneroof (latest results in order):
2-13 De Quincey Terrace - sold for $1.17m, cv is $810k (13 Nov 2018)
20 Montgomery Crescent, Cockle Bay - sold for $1.17m, cv is $1.1m (13 Nov 2018)
7 Vida Place, Howick - sold for 900k, cv is 910k (6 Nov 2018)
6 Medina Place, Half Moon Bay - sold for 920k, cv is 885k (30 Oct 2018)
2 Loloma Drive, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.9m, cv is $1.25 (crazy) (20 Oct 2018)
2/7 Anna Watson Road, Half Moon Bay - sold for $85.k, cv is $800k (16 Oct 2018)
36 Glennandrew Drive, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.4m, cv is $1.225m (15 Oct 2018)
4 Maugham Drive, Bucklands Beach - sold for $1.45m, same as cv (1 Oct 2018)
20 Waller Avenue, Bucklands Beach - sold for $1.557m, cv is $1.55m (28 Sep 2018)
8 Indus Place, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.2 mil, same as cv (27 Sep 2018)
47A Andrew Road, Howick - sold for $838k, cv is $860k (18 Sep 2018)
2/7 Proteus Place, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.1m, cv is $1.09m (19 Sep 2018)
11 Fiesta Drive, Half Moon Bay - sold for $1.218m, cv is $1.175m (21 Sep 2018)

Last night at Auction, one house in Half Moon Bay sold for around 200k above CV, another in Howick was passed in with last bid 50k above cv.

So I don't know but I don't see the price drops that you refer to.

All bubbles eventually burst. It's what they do. The longer the bubble stays inflated and the bigger it gets, the louder and messier the pop. The primary concern in this case is NZ's almost complete absence of a safety net. You think dairy and/or tourism will save the Kiwi economy from the inevitable collapse of the residential property bubble? Good luck with that. No, seriously, I really hope the few tens of billions earned from those activities can somehow prop it all up.

10
up

However although sales volumes were stronger in Auckland, up 7.3% compared to a year ago, prices were weaker. Harcourts' average Auckland selling price in October was $942,483, which was down 2.2% compared to October last year and down $75,068 (-7.3%) compared to September this year.

Interesting, that's despite the run up to the FBB.

How very "bouyant".

I was about to say the only market I care about is Auckland and add that quote. Things are not looking good in AK.

11
up

I have been monitoring property listings on one of the main auction websites in NZ, and I have noticed that the number of properties "For sale by Auction" is consistently dropping, and the number of properties listed as "Asking price" or "Enquiries above" is increasing.

I'd say that with the exceptionally low auction clearance rates we have seen in the Auckland for the last period, vendors are having to adapt to a changing market and start negotiating with buyers a bit more. I think this is reflected in the increased sales numbers and lower prices as a result.

Indeed, auctions are great when there are several buyers outbidding each other but they are dreadful when there are few buyers

Edit - tried to post a table, formatting didn't like it.

A lot of differing data for Auckland on Octobers results.

Overall
listings clearly up this October
Sales slightly up on last October but still very low compared to previous years
Prices, cant really see the true data here with some doing median and some averages but definitely weakening

November is looking quite weak on the auction clearances, and given the high volumes for sale you might see that feeling of "buoyancy" turn to a sinking feeling

Any one noticing the listings dropping off in west Auckland? Wonder if they are selling or vendors pulling them off....

I reckon tonnes of places are getting pulled off the market.
I'm looking for a new property to rent in the eastern suburbs, 3 of the 6 properties I have viewed were for sale but were taken off the market. A couple of the agents were very open to me in saying how dead the market is. One even said something along the lines of it going to be flat for quite a while. Don't think I've ever heard anything so bearish from an agent before,,,,

Just be careful, the vendor is likely to lock a tenant into a 12 month lease, and then put the property back on the market, knowing that they then have 12 months to try and sell it before its empty again.

Wouldn't the remaining period of the 12 month lease put off a lot of prospective buyers? Ie, most of the owner occupier types?

The buyers can require vacant possession, tenants will get 6 weeks notice to move out I believe.

Nope, fixed term is just that. New owner can't kick the tenant out till the agreement is up.

https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/ending-a-tenancy/change-of-landlord-or-tenan...

Fixed-term tenancy
A landlord or tenant can’t give notice to end a fixed-term tenancy early. So if the property being sold is rented for a fixed-term, the property must be sold with the tenancy and tenants in place. The buyer will then become the new landlord for the rest of the fixed-term.

Hopefully you are not a landlord

Hi PP2F, I've only been monitoring one of our larger auction sites for a few weeks but my results show a fairly steady amount of listings in Waitakere City. Here is a breakdown of the listings by sale type, hopefully the formatting isn't too awful:

record_date | auctions | enquiries | tender | deadline_sale | asking_prices | price_by_negotiation | total
-------------+----------+-----------+--------+---------------+---------------+----------------------+-------
2018-11-03 | 134 | 37 | 10 | 25 | 437 | 389 | 1032
2018-11-06 | 131 | 30 | 10 | 31 | 453 | 396 | 1051
2018-11-07 | 142 | 32 | 10 | 30 | 455 | 400 | 1069
2018-11-08 | 152 | 32 | 10 | 32 | 462 | 403 | 1091
2018-11-09 | 141 | 28 | 10 | 32 | 461 | 403 | 1075
2018-11-10 | 140 | 28 | 10 | 32 | 463 | 398 | 1071
2018-11-11 | 139 | 29 | 10 | 32 | 465 | 398 | 1073
2018-11-12 | 132 | 29 | 10 | 29 | 470 | 399 | 1069
2018-11-13 | 135 | 30 | 10 | 27 | 471 | 395 | 1068
2018-11-14 | 135 | 29 | 10 | 29 | 473 | 398 | 1074
2018-11-15 | 141 | 29 | 12 | 28 | 481 | 398 | 1089
2018-11-16 | 129 | 28 | 10 | 26 | 494 | 391 | 1078
2018-11-17 | 127 | 28 | 10 | 23 | 500 | 387 | 1075
2018-11-18 | 126 | 28 | 10 | 23 | 499 | 386 | 1072
2018-11-19 | 121 | 27 | 10 | 22 | 508 | 396 | 1084

Thank you, looking through the listings, looks like some are readvertised.. not sure if agents are doing it intentionally to get buyers attention or listing has just expired..

Obvious trend away from "we'll stick it on the market without a price and see what the next fool will give us" to selling with a price. Next step is to adjust the price down to meet the market.

Agree, and I've been able to watch properties go from listed as "For sale by Auction" at a certain date, to "Price by Negotiation" after that date, to "Asking Price" a week later. Certainly tells a story, as well as the properties that then decrease their asking price by $100,000 a week after listing their asking price.

Just remember when the Titanic went down, the bow of the ship actually bopping up and down a few times before the final decent into the bottom of the Atlantic. This October data could be one of those movements before the final journey!

Hopefully bhsl has a life jacket, wouldn't want to lose a friend

Well to make money - one should not try to predict the market but read the market and the trend in the current house market in NZ is negative and is just he beginning.

Will not be surprised to see house going as low as 30% below RV in near future, if not more (As it happen during boom that were going 30% and more above the RV).

Properties with RV of a 1000000 to 1050000 are going at his stage between Mid 800s to early 900s and is not one off but all across with some exception and early next year will be near around 800s, if the market continues the way it is now and see no reason to change.

Anyone who can hold the investment should hold for few years or if does not have holding capacity could sell and get out as soon as to avoid lose, if lucky or to minimize the lose.

And people think its silly to argue your rating valuation down....

How about?
Sell - Auckland/Queenstown
Hold - other NZ
Auckland/Queenstown have high cost structures and therefore higher risk.

TTP is leader of the band and requesting the Waltz

2% down Auckland is hardly a catastrophe
We live in hope of a sensible correction but far from that yet
Typical stubborn Auckland market
Low interest rates helping to prop up the Ponzi built on debt

Hi Chairman Moa,

Just remember that before a rocket launches, the launch platform may sway a little - before the rocket blasts into intergalactic travel......

TTP (-;

And you still read it.

Not a person of your words, eh..

And when the rocker ran out of fuel???? I can't go on forever unless it's going towards the sun!

Hi Chairman Moa,

"And when the rocker ran out of fuel????"

I'm sure an old rocker like you will never run out of fuel!

Dance on my friend.

TTP (-;

LOL, will you put money on my g string if I dance you for you? Buying properties low and sell them high wouldn't be an issue with money.. Love you long time!

Love to see some data on how far the regions lag behind Auckland. If AK starts falling, how long until the other centres start?

Looking at past cycles, roughly 18 months

ChCh is the shining light just as The Man has stated.
Sales and prices well up and this will continue.
The Man knows the ChCh property market and what he doesn’t know is not worth knowing.
ChCh is still growing and will become the city
Of choice for many going forward.

The Tron will bypass ChCh as NZ's #3 city so fast it ain't even funny.

What's the "Tron" ?

The opposite of that snowbird mecca TGA.

Hamilton

Been living in Hamilton for over 30 years.Never heard it called the tron,it's a publicity stunt by the media which has never and will never take off.

HamilTRON city of the future

Chlamydia capital of NZ.. or did Whangarei wrestle that one away this year?

Yeah that title has moved up north. So the next boom will happen up Northland as STD's are a sign of a young and active generation. And a reason why places like bible-belt Tauranga have clearly peaked.

As long as u don't need a bus.

That question is on the NZ citizen test..??

ChCh is Nz’s no. 1 city for opportunity and liveability in the future!

Yes I am biased but I have travelled a lot and there aren’t many other cities around the world that offer the
liveability That ChCh offers!
Housing is still very affordable compared to Auckland and Australia’s cities.

I have travelled a lot too and I disagree about ChCh (Nice people out there though) There's way more economic opportunity in the Golden Triangle. Palmy being overrated as well.

ChCh is a bit more livable now that the skinheads have moved south.

But Auckland won the NPC by thrashing Canterbury in the final.... just saying

Palmy North looks a top prospect......

“Palmy - the Ponsonby of the Manawatu”

Get in while house prices are cheap!

TTP

Have they launched that rocket in Tiakitahuna?

Palmerston North - A snapshot of a property crash about to hit New Zealand. (Data recorded from Trademe/Corelogic/QV on 11th October) - Are you trying to help those that are 'flipping out' about the market TTP?

'I have just looked at the 175 Listings on Trademe for Palmerston North and uncovered the following:

45 Listings are New Builds or Plots, most that have been built will have been financed for top of market prices. (25.6% of the market)
3 Listings were bought in 2018 and are already back on the market (1.7%)
11 Listings were purchased in 2017 (6.2%)
25 Listings were purchased in 2016 (14.3%)
7 Listings were purchased in 2015 (4%)
8 Listings were purchased in 2014
7 Listings were purchased in 2013
7 Listings were purchased in 2012
8 Listings were purchased in 2010/11
22 Listings were purchased between 2000-2009
6 Listings were purchased between 1990 -1999
5 Listings were purchased pre 1990

There is no data on either Tradme or QV for 21 listings. (12%)
If anyone needs any help working out how exposed Palmerston North is following the speculation in the market then please call the helpline 0800 WHAT A BLOODY PICKLE.

Maybe get out of little room an go visit the place Nic. Train hub springs to mind....

Listing numbers were very low over Oct in Chch so not much to choose from - but now they are at record levels. Way past last years total listing high.
What will be interesting to watch is the property market in Avonhead/Ilam/Riccarton which has really sprung into life in Nov (as foreign students go home) but unlike past years, there will be no incoming foreign students able to buy them. This will be the epicentre of the Chch bust.

It appears that spruiking the market is fine but offering any type of data to suggest a bubble is not.

Sorry Yvil but our conversation about first home buyers being loaded with a $1,000,000,000 a month of debt .with reference to ireland v New Zealand from DFA.....You're response of 'to infinity and beyond' and my wikipedia post about bubbles and how NZ is classified as currently being in a 'bubble' have all unfortunately ended up on the editors floor!

Ch.Ch. Has always been a great city for as long as I can remember.
Yes there has been the earthquakes, and everyone suffered to differing degrees.
Many have become extremely wealthy from it .
Many of the people that came in for the rebuild have now stayed on and are in love with the place.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion obviously, but reality is that ChCh for a major city is still the best opportunity in NZ for a great affordable lifestyle!
People that haven’t left Auckland have blinkers on if they beleive that Auckland gives a better lifestyle than ChCh.

I say go for Palmerston North!

No earthquakes, great health/education/sports facilities - and inexpensive housing (though the latter may change).

Buy in Palmy - while the going is good!

TTP

Murder capital of NZ The MAN..

.